What did I say earlier about 70 gains - I may have called it too low!
Bolsover is Conservative target no 137, with a Labour majority in excess of 25%. I suspect that this is a diversionary attack to spook Labour MPs, and try to make the party spread its resources unnecessarily thin.
If Skinner went we'd be looking at something approaching a 1931-style wipeout for Labour. I don't believe they're doing quite as well as some of the polling companies suggest, but I certainly don't think they're doing that badly, either.
EDIT: That said, Llanelli (the next seat down the list, with more complex dynamics due to a strong Plaid presence) could potentially develop into a three-way marginal, depending on the extent of Labour softening/Ukip collapse. Stranger things have happened...
Preventing the SNP from taking power is not the key element, at least as far as I'm concerned. Local parties sometimes need to set aside bullshit and work together, even with people they'd rather not. Making it just flat out against the rules is unreasonable no matter who does it, to prevent no matter who.
It's not flat out against the rules. It's the deal between the two parties that led to the suspension. No compulsory council redundancies is SLABS position. That was not guaranteed in this case.
Not quite as harsh then, but not by much- saying you cannot deviate from a position despite local circumstances, allowing local parties to decide if it is necessary in those local circumstances.
But the council elections were not local elections. They were turned into a national election by the prancing self importance of the Unionist demanding that it was a proxy referendum on independence.
What did I say earlier about 70 gains - I may have called it too low!
Bolsover is Conservative target no 137, with a Labour majority in excess of 25%. I suspect that this is a diversionary attack to spook Labour MPs, and try to make the party spread its resources unnecessarily thin.
If Skinner went we'd be looking at something approaching a 1931-style wipeout for Labour. I don't believe they're doing quite as well as some of the polling companies suggest, but I certainly don't think they're doing that badly, either.
I agree I don't see it myself, but just like targeting Westmoreland, it diverts enemy resources away from the real strategic targets and end up defending bits you have no interest in.
In previous elections (even in 2015 when he lost) Simon Hughes' constituency was a sea of orange posters. Yesterday I saw none. It may reflect the fact that people don't do posters much these days, but doesn't bode well for him .
Its all micro targeting on Facebook now. Better reach and cheaper than lots of posters.
The targeting on possible with Online adverts is great but I'm not seeing it targeted very well this year. On Facebook, I'm getting adds for Labour, and on Non-Facebook sits, I'm getting lots of Lib Dem adverts. which considering I've liked A lode of Libertarian things on Facebook e.g. IEA, and visit a number of Libertarian websites sights, does make me wonder how much effort they are putting in.
For what its worth I'm not seeing many Conservative adds ether. anybody else seeing political adds they where not expecting?
Seems pretty rubbish to me too. I am getting occasional ads from all parties, perhaps because I have friends across all parties. Mostly the usual heartwarming stuff, cat videos, selfies and holiday snaps
Sky news vox pops in wells and Yeovil not very keen on lib dem policy of another vote.
Wells and Yeovil both have healthy Tory majorities now (about 5.5K and 7.5K respectively.) Mendip was split pretty much evenly in the EU referendum; South Somerset voted nearly 60:40 to Leave. Ukip was third in both seats in 2015 and has withdrawn in both seats this time around. The Lib Dems stand next to no chance of retaking either.
@BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.
This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
Probably not. Hopeful unionists are expecting a great deal from the scots, but there are several barriers. First, they have to even be amendable to doing so in large numbers, and while that might be the case, it won't be universal. Second, there is already uncertainty in some areas like East Renfrewshire which unionist party has the best chance, because of the third issue, which is as none of them are standing down for the others, there is no pact in place, you were already relying on the public independently deciding in enough numbers to make significant gains, to vote tactically even as the parties don't officially endorse the idea.
That partisanship cannot be set aside even for local government arrangements, which for a system with such proportionality seems crazy, does not bode well at all. If the recent uptick in SNP subsample scores is reflected in reality (rather than subsample reality), then I'm feeling pretty confident about my SNP 50+ bet.
Use the Holyrood elections as your guide to Unionist tactical voting and you won't go far wrong.
I'm beginning to think that the LibDems may end up with more Scottish seats than English ones.
Me too.
I doubt it myself, but it's not wholly inconceivable. If the polls are to be believed (and I'm still not entirely convinced) then the Lib Dems' anti-Ukip strategy has completely failed, the party is being badly squeezed in England again, and the Welsh Lib Dems are in an even worse state.
In Scotland, however, whilst they're still niche they do appear to have a role in the system - as the Unionist party for voters who are still so repelled by the Conservatives that they need an alternative (and which is also moderate, and thus can simultaneously appeal to ordinary Conservative voters to lend it their support in FPTP contests where their own preferred candidate is weak.) A worse than expected SNP performance could see the Lib Dems make four or possibly even five gains.
Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like
8 Gains from the SNP 3 Gains from the Lib Dems 1 Gain from Plaid 80 Gains from Labour.
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
As of right now ?
Orkney Ceredigion Leeds North West Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal. Cambridge marginal.
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
PB seems to have a disproportionate number of posters who live in one constituency! (SeanT lives there aswell doesn't he?).
71% leave in the referendum. Would need all of UKIP to move straight to Tories and squeeze the labour vote. Its a WWC seat and if it falls then Labour are getting pounded like the French/Spanish fleet at Trafalgar.
I thought Dennis Skinner was one of only about 10 Lab MPs to support Brexit, (I might be wrong) it may be that a lot of people do not know what their local MP supported at the referendum, but I would have thought a well establish MP like Skinner would be more well know than most.
I would have thought the visit of crises Grayling to Bolsover, was:
1. Boost moral of Tory activists/supporters across the UK. 2. Scare sitting Lab MPs so that they end up hording activists even in ultra safe lab seats. 3. eat up any spare seconds of news time that might otherwise be used to give coverage to UKIP/LIbDems
Preventing the SNP from taking power is not the key element, at least as far as I'm concerned. Local parties sometimes need to set aside bullshit and work together, even with people they'd rather not. Making it just flat out against the rules is unreasonable no matter who does it, to prevent no matter who.
It's not flat out against the rules. It's the deal between the two parties that led to the suspension. No compulsory council redundancies is SLABS position. That was not guaranteed in this case.
Not quite as harsh then, but not by much- saying you cannot deviate from a position despite local circumstances, allowing local parties to decide if it is necessary in those local circumstances.
But the council elections were not local elections. They were turned into a national election by the prancing self importance of the Unionist demanding that it was a proxy referendum on independence.
As a direct result of Sturgeon's pure political calculation in saying that the UK voting to leave the EU (including 37% of SNP voters) meant that she had to call a second independence vote just 3 years after the nationalists had lost the first one!
What did I say earlier about 70 gains - I may have called it too low!
Bolsover is Conservative target no 137, with a Labour majority in excess of 25%. I suspect that this is a diversionary attack to spook Labour MPs, and try to make the party spread its resources unnecessarily thin.
If Skinner went we'd be looking at something approaching a 1931-style wipeout for Labour. I don't believe they're doing quite as well as some of the polling companies suggest, but I certainly don't think they're doing that badly, either.
EDIT: That said, Llanelli (the next seat down the list, with more complex dynamics due to a strong Plaid presence) could potentially develop into a three-way marginal, depending on the extent of Labour softening/Ukip collapse. Stranger things have happened...
Rookers do you know what number Birmingham Selly Oak is on the Tory target list? Only enquiring as I know the candidate and impressive young lady she is too.
He may not win, although he leads with the Irish public as a whole Varadkar trails Housing Minister Simon Coveney with FG voters, although even he has accepted there may be customs checks at ports and airports
Has any country had an openly gay premier before ?
He may not win, although he leads with the Irish public as a whole Varadkar trails Housing Minister Simon Coveney with FG voters, although even he has accepted there may be customs checks at ports and airports
Has any country had an openly gay premier before ?
He may not win, although he leads with the Irish public as a whole Varadkar trails Housing Minister Simon Coveney with FG voters, although even he has accepted there may be customs checks at ports and airports
Has any country had an openly gay premier before ?
@BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.
This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
Probably not. Hopeful unionists are expecting a great deal from the scots, but there are several barriers. First, they have to even be amendable to doing so in large numbers, and while that might be the case, it won't be universal. Second, there is already uncertainty in some areas like East Renfrewshire which unionist party has the best chance, because of the third issue, which is as none of them are standing down for the others, there is no pact in place, you were already relying on the public independently deciding in enough numbers to make significant gains, to vote tactically even as the parties don't officially endorse the idea.
That partisanship cannot be set aside even for local government arrangements, which for a system with such proportionality seems crazy, does not bode well at all. If the recent uptick in SNP subsample scores is reflected in reality (rather than subsample reality), then I'm feeling pretty confident about my SNP 50+ bet.
Use the Holyrood elections as your guide to Unionist tactical voting and you won't go far wrong.
I'm beginning to think that the LibDems may end up with more Scottish seats than English ones.
Me too.
I doubt it myself, but it's not wholly inconceivable. If the polls are to be believed (and I'm still not entirely convinced) then the Lib Dems' anti-Ukip strategy has completely failed, the party is being badly squeezed in England again, and the Welsh Lib Dems are in an even worse state.
In Scotland, however, whilst they're still niche they do appear to have a role in the system - as the Unionist party for voters who are still so repelled by the Conservatives that they need an alternative (and which is also moderate, and thus can simultaneously appeal to ordinary Conservative voters to lend it their support in FPTP contests where their own preferred candidate is weak.) A worse than expected SNP performance could see the Lib Dems make four or possibly even five gains.
While you shouldn't read too much into it, the LibDems are convinced they'll regain John Thurso's old Caithness seat
He may not win, although he leads with the Irish public as a whole Varadkar trails Housing Minister Simon Coveney with FG voters, although even he has accepted there may be customs checks at ports and airports
Has any country had an openly gay premier before ?
fpt Eastwinger said: Chris Hanratty (UEA Election Forecast) reckons Norfolk will go completely blue. Norman Lamb 100% lose and Clive Lewis (Norwich South) 66% lose.
Is Lewis citing this Hanratty analysis in his election collateral?
Hanretty's forecast was, IIRC, quite badly out last time. This time around the central forecast includes such gems as the Tories winning well over 400 seats yet getting practically nowhere in Scotland, Labour with a 50% or greater chance of taking three Welsh seats FROM the Tories, but also, at the same time, a near certain victory for the Conservatives against Plaid in Dwyfor Meirionydd. It's crackers.
Lamb is in serious trouble but there's little likelihood of Clive Lewis going, even in a Labour bloodbath. Even if he can't squeeze the Lib Dem vote, he'll almost certainly win over a lot of the Greens.
Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like
8 Gains from the SNP 3 Gains from the Lib Dems 1 Gain from Plaid 80 Gains from Labour.
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
As of right now ?
Orkney Ceredigion Leeds North West Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal. Cambridge marginal.
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
Not sure if you have seen this before:
"Anyone know how I can cancel an eBay bid? I put 3 quid on a Cowboy Outfit and now I'm 6 minutes away from owning the Labour Party"
Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like
8 Gains from the SNP 3 Gains from the Lib Dems 1 Gain from Plaid 80 Gains from Labour.
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
As of right now ?
Orkney Ceredigion Leeds North West Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal. Cambridge marginal.
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
PB seems to have a disproportionate number of posters who live in one constituency! (SeanT lives there aswell doesn't he?).
Nah, he lives in cheap old Primrose Hill. Wouldn't be tolerated in Hampstead.
Marf lives there though. Could the PB vote be decisive?
If Con Gain Bolsover then whatever's left of the Labour Party wreckage after the election might just as well pack up and go home...
I think Labour will hold it, Skinner had 51% last time though it is possible Bolsover could go Tory but Wirral South could stay Labour and Kingston Upon Thames go LD, in 1992 the 1st seat was Labour and the latter 2 Tory
Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like
8 Gains from the SNP 3 Gains from the Lib Dems 1 Gain from Plaid 80 Gains from Labour.
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
As of right now ?
Orkney Ceredigion Leeds North West Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal. Cambridge marginal.
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
PB seems to have a disproportionate number of posters who live in one constituency! (SeanT lives there aswell doesn't he?).
Nah, he lives in cheap old Primrose Hill. Wouldn't be tolerated in Hampstead.
Marf lives there though. Could the PB vote be decisive?
Good to see Marf back, but I think Trump is not toast just yet...
Don't believe it for a second. The Conservatives would be most unlikely to sweep up the entire Ukip vote even if they weren't fielding a candidate - and they are still standing in Bolsover.
There really ought to be some direct Lab-Con swing, and a higher abstention rate amongst remaining Labour voters. But even so, surely not enough against a majority of that size?
He may not win, although he leads with the Irish public as a whole Varadkar trails Housing Minister Simon Coveney with FG voters, although even he has accepted there may be customs checks at ports and airports
Has any country had an openly gay premier before ?
I have a theory that I hadn't yet tested as to why SLab's vote share held up relatively well despite electoral apocalypse being predicted at the council elections. I think SLab's voter base has aged dramatically as they've lost younger, but less likely to vote, voters to the SNP. Would also explain the SNP's disappointing performance.
Don't believe it for a second. The Conservatives would be most unlikely to sweep up the entire Ukip vote even if they weren't fielding a candidate - and they are still standing in Bolsover.
There really ought to be some direct Lab-Con swing, and a higher abstention rate amongst remaining Labour voters. But even so, surely not enough against a majority of that size?
The numbers are based on 2015 voters responses to pollsters saying they have made up their minds - and the assumption is 42% switching from UKIP to Tory, and that a third of 2015 Labour voters currently refuse to pledge for 2017 Labour.
There are "undecideds" to be added to those base numbers,
While you shouldn't read too much into it, the LibDems are convinced they'll regain John Thurso's old Caithness seat
I had a look into that. Their new candidate was a strong second in the Holyrood seat last year; a bit of softening of the SNP vote and some Unionist tactical voting (nobody else is close in this seat, which improves the chances of that happening,) and he might just do it.
Nonetheless, would require a swing of a little over 5.5%.
71% leave in the referendum. Would need all of UKIP to move straight to Tories and squeeze the labour vote. Its a WWC seat and if it falls then Labour are getting pounded like the French/Spanish fleet at Trafalgar.
I thought Dennis Skinner was one of only about 10 Lab MPs to support Brexit, (I might be wrong) it may be that a lot of people do not know what their local MP supported at the referendum, but I would have thought a well establish MP like Skinner would be more well know than most.
I would have thought the visit of crises Grayling to Bolsover, was:
1. Boost moral of Tory activists/supporters across the UK. 2. Scare sitting Lab MPs so that they end up hording activists even in ultra safe lab seats. 3. eat up any spare seconds of news time that might otherwise be used to give coverage to UKIP/LIbDems
My MP, John Cryer (Lab: Wanstead & Leyton), supported Brexit. He'll be doing without my vote this time as a result but I doubt he'll miss it.
Curiously, the reason he gave for his position on Brexit was that the EU was an undemocratic institution, which some might consider a bit rich. He is an intelligent man though with a good reputation as a constituency MP, which makes me suspect his views may have more to do with the possibility of deselection by his local membership, but I'm not sufficiently involved locally to do more than speculate.
It's ironic that when PB had a straw poll shortly after the election in 2010 asking which Cabinet Minister would be the first out I voted for Theresa May on the basis that Home Secretaries never last long and also that she was hopeless.
It's ironic that when PB had a straw poll shortly after the election in 2010 asking which Cabinet Minister would be the first out I voted for Theresa May on the basis that Home Secretaries never last long and also that she was hopeless.
@iainjwatson: Suspended Labour councillors in Aberdeen have rebranded themselves 'Aberdeen Labour' & continue arrangement with Cons says @BBCCatrionaR
There you go. The inept Scottish Labour leadership now has to play whac-a-mole with rebel independent parties, as well as being squeezed in a vice between the SNP and Conservatives. Slow hand claps for Kezia.
Sky news vox pops in wells and Yeovil not very keen on lib dem policy of another vote.
Just finished a canvassing session with the team in Torbay.
I can confirm that the LibDem "Second Referendum" is going down badly here in the SW. I personally had direct LibDems --> Tory switchers tonight specifically citing it.
I can also confirm that the UKIP vote has died. Vanished. It's going to Theresa May (not the Tories as such - but same effect, of course).
Labour vote appears quite strong. We were in what should have been a less than promising part of the constituency, so the "not your lot!" responses could mask some Labour --> LibDems movement, but it did feel more like the previous huge Labour tactical voting that won the LibDems the seat until 2015 was unwinding.
To be fair, I did also find a former Tory-voting NHS worker who we have now lost. Not sure how she would vote, but not Tory this time.
Still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" yet in 2017....
It's ironic that when PB had a straw poll shortly after the election in 2010 asking which Cabinet Minister would be the first out I voted for Theresa May on the basis that Home Secretaries never last long and also that she was hopeless.
German leader to dictate whom the British can have in their own country.
What could possibly go wrong?
She's not dictating whom we can have in our country. She, and the EU27, are dictating the terms on which we can participate in their internal market if we wish to reject some of its core principles.
Rabble rousing against the Germans won't keep the public onside as the negotiations lurch from humiliation to humiliation.
He may not win, although he leads with the Irish public as a whole Varadkar trails Housing Minister Simon Coveney with FG voters, although even he has accepted there may be customs checks at ports and airports
Has any country had an openly gay premier before ?
Vatican City?
More seriously, Belgium, Luxembourg and Iceland
Thanks everyone. Had no idea. Still ground breaking for Ireland.
Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like
8 Gains from the SNP 3 Gains from the Lib Dems 1 Gain from Plaid 80 Gains from Labour.
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
As of right now ?
Orkney Ceredigion Leeds North West Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal. Cambridge marginal.
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
PB seems to have a disproportionate number of posters who live in one constituency! (SeanT lives there aswell doesn't he?).
Nah, he lives in cheap old Primrose Hill. Wouldn't be tolerated in Hampstead.
Marf lives there though. Could the PB vote be decisive?
Good to see Marf back, but I think Trump is not toast just yet...
He was last matched at 1.88 to go before the end of his Term. That feels a bit high to me. Certainly if you followed Yokels comments here last night you'd definitely be taking that price.
I have a theory that I hadn't yet tested as to why SLab's vote share held up relatively well despite electoral apocalypse being predicted at the council elections. I think SLab's voter base has aged dramatically as they've lost younger, but less likely to vote, voters to the SNP. Would also explain the SNP's disappointing performance.
I'm not sure I'd go so far as to describe the SNP's performance, in very hard to win PR elections, as disappointing - but the wider point about Labour is plausible. Even if the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats can't peel off Labour's remaining support, then it may very well simply die out as an electoral force over the next twenty years.
Scottish Labour has no discernible purpose left, other than as a repository for habit votes. As younger Scots who have already abandoned Labour in their droves gradually age, they are unlikely to acquire the Labour habit.
@iainjwatson: Suspended Labour councillors in Aberdeen have rebranded themselves 'Aberdeen Labour' & continue arrangement with Cons says @BBCCatrionaR
There you go. The inept Scottish Labour leadership now has to play whac-a-mole with rebel independent parties, as well as being squeezed in a vice between the SNP and Conservatives. Slow hand claps for Kezia.
Ruth D uncharcteriscly `quiet - you're starting to see why SNP keep defying gravity !
@IainDale: I hear a certain @michaelgove is doing the morning media rounds for CCHQ on the Tory manifesto. Could a cabinet comeback be in the cards?
Suggested he could be next Chancellor only this morning.
Even Osborne would like that.
Even I commented yesterday (or possibly the day before) that he would be back in at some point, although I seen him taking Hunt's job personally.
Yes, but only the penitent man shall pass.
In many ways May has been less cruel to Gove than to Boris if he is back in, BoJo has been giving the job of making Brexit work whilst Mickey has been told to go and think about what he has done and might actually be brought back in and get a proper job.
Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like
8 Gains from the SNP 3 Gains from the Lib Dems 1 Gain from Plaid 80 Gains from Labour.
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
As of right now ?
Orkney Ceredigion Leeds North West Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal. Cambridge marginal.
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
PB seems to have a disproportionate number of posters who live in one constituency! (SeanT lives there aswell doesn't he?).
Nah, he lives in cheap old Primrose Hill. Wouldn't be tolerated in Hampstead.
Marf lives there though. Could the PB vote be decisive?
Good to see Marf back, but I think Trump is not toast just yet...
He was last matched at 1.88 to go before the end of his Term. That feels a bit high to me. Certainly if you followed Yokels comments here last night you'd definitely be taking that price.
I think that impeachment takes a long time, so the 5.9 on 2018 is better value.
German leader to dictate whom the British can have in their own country.
What could possibly go wrong?
She's not dictating whom we can have in our country. She, and the EU27, are dictating the terms on which we can participate in their internal market if we wish to reject some of its core principles.
Rabble rousing against the Germans won't keep the public onside as the negotiations lurch from humiliation to humiliation.
Maybe just maybe we might want to dictate to them on what terms they are allowed in, if they reject our core principles of actually wanting to be a normal country and regulate our borders in a sensible way for the benefit of our citizens.
To me that means openly welcoming people who will be useful productive contributors to our society and are prepared to live by our values. It does not mean kowtowing to foreign leaders, whose fear you can smell that we have rejected their set up and will sit off their coast as a "Plan B" example to any others that do not wish to see their national democracies mashed into a 21st Century Austria Hungary.
German leader to dictate whom the British can have in their own country.
What could possibly go wrong?
She's not dictating whom we can have in our country. She, and the EU27, are dictating the terms on which we can participate in their internal market if we wish to reject some of its core principles.
Rabble rousing against the Germans won't keep the public onside as the negotiations lurch from humiliation to humiliation.
Such core principles that Germany limited immigration from Poland and other Eastern European states despite them participating in the same internal market.
Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like
8 Gains from the SNP 3 Gains from the Lib Dems 1 Gain from Plaid 80 Gains from Labour.
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
As of right now ?
Orkney Ceredigion Leeds North West Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal. Cambridge marginal.
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
PB seems to have a disproportionate number of posters who live in one constituency! (SeanT lives there aswell doesn't he?).
Nah, he lives in cheap old Primrose Hill. Wouldn't be tolerated in Hampstead.
Marf lives there though. Could the PB vote be decisive?
Good to see Marf back, but I think Trump is not toast just yet...
He was last matched at 1.88 to go before the end of his Term. That feels a bit high to me. Certainly if you followed Yokels comments here last night you'd definitely be taking that price.
I think that impeachment takes a long time, so the 5.9 on 2018 is better value.
Question: any chance at all of Trump being declared unfit under the 25th Amendment?
German leader to dictate whom the British can have in their own country.
What could possibly go wrong?
She's not dictating whom we can have in our country. She, and the EU27, are dictating the terms on which we can participate in their internal market if we wish to reject some of its core principles.
Rabble rousing against the Germans won't keep the public onside as the negotiations lurch from humiliation to humiliation.
Maybe just maybe we might want to dictate to them on what terms they are allowed in, if they reject our core principles of actually wanting to be a normal country and regulate our borders in a sensible way for the benefit of our citizens.
By the time we get to March 2019 most businesses will have made up their minds without waiting on either our government or theirs, as the CIPS survey showed yesterday.
Businesses are already disentangling and moving to adjust their supply chains on both sides of the channel as well as establishing bases as they see fit.
It was good to see Barnier acknowledge that A50 is the transitional phase today.
It does not mean kowtowing to foreign leaders, whose fear you can smell that we have rejected their set up and will sit off their coast as a "Plan B" example to any others that do not wish to see their national democracies mashed into a 21st Century Austria Hungary.
Those remaining EU member states must be looking on at our ideological battle between Ed Miliband's vision and Michael Foot's with envy...
Such core principles that Germany limited immigration from Poland and other Eastern European states despite them participating in the same internal market.
It's called a transition. We chose 'hard expansion' instead of an orderly adjustment.
Browsing the Guardian and I've noticed that their logo seems to omit the UKIP colors but includes the green colors, despite UKIP getting more votes than them at the last election. So much for fair and balanced..
Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
I Cambridge marginal.
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
PB seems to have a disproportionate number of posters who live in one constituency! (SeanT lives there aswell doesn't he?).
Nah, he lives in cheap old Primrose Hill. Wouldn't be tolerated in Hampstead.
Marf lives there though. Could the PB vote be decisive?
Good to see Marf back, but I think Trump is not toast just yet...
He was last matched at 1.88 to go before the end of his Term. That feels a bit high to me. Certainly if you followed Yokels comments here last night you'd definitely be taking that price.
I think that impeachment takes a long time, so the 5.9 on 2018 is better value.
Funnily enough it doesn't have to. If it does in practice it may be because the interested Parties don't really want to come to that and hope the President will step down voluntarily in the end. This is exactly what happened with Nixon.
This long New Yorker article gives the low down on this and much else if it's your kind of thing.
Browsing the Guardian and I've noticed that their logo seems to omit the UKIP colors but includes the green colors, despite UKIP getting more votes than them at the last election. So much for fair and balanced..
Maybe they went for colours of parties that actually existed by the end of the last Parliament, ie have MPs
It does not mean kowtowing to foreign leaders, whose fear you can smell that we have rejected their set up and will sit off their coast as a "Plan B" example to any others that do not wish to see their national democracies mashed into a 21st Century Austria Hungary.
Those remaining EU member states must be looking on at our ideological battle between Ed Miliband's vision and Michael Foot's with envy...
Such core principles that Germany limited immigration from Poland and other Eastern European states despite them participating in the same internal market.
It's called a transition. We chose 'hard expansion' instead of an orderly adjustment.
Doesn't say much for the "core principles" though, does it?
Browsing the Guardian and I've noticed that their logo seems to omit the UKIP colors but includes the green colors, despite UKIP getting more votes than them at the last election. So much for fair and balanced..
Maybe they went for colours of parties that actually existed by the end of the last Parliament, ie have MPs
A paper that supports PR should surely care more about the vote share?
Sky news vox pops in wells and Yeovil not very keen on lib dem policy of another vote.
Two friends of mine who were planning to vote Lib Dem switched to the Greens today over the 2nd referendum pledge. And they both detest Brexit.
I'm not joking. And, no, I don't understand it.
They just think Farron is a joke and not serious.
That'll be because Farron is a joke, and not serious.
If I were in North Norfolk, I think I'd vote Lamb. IIRC, he voted to serve the Article 50 notification.
He abstained.
Farron is wrong with his second referendum promise. Should have gone for EEA membership.
I agree. It would have satisfied the terms of the referendum. It would have enabled the LDs to say that they were putting safety first. And in Leave-y seats they could have said that Brexit is a process not a step function. It would also have enabled the LDs to pin the blame for the next recession (whatever the ultimate cause) on the government not going down the EEA route. Lamb fronting that message might have gotten the LDs into the mid to high teens.
Still not read any Witcher books (I have very little time for reading, and have just started a 96,000 word proofreading torture). And I don't have Netflix. Me miserum!
Fairly lightweight, but imaginative and entertaining, Mr.D. - I suspect you would like them. If you haven't read it, you'd probably enjoy John James' Votan more. Don't regret Netflix; there is simply too much watchable TV of reasonable to excellent quality out there these days for anyone who aspires to do anything productive with their time...
It does not mean kowtowing to foreign leaders, whose fear you can smell that we have rejected their set up and will sit off their coast as a "Plan B" example to any others that do not wish to see their national democracies mashed into a 21st Century Austria Hungary.
Those remaining EU member states must be looking on at our ideological battle between Ed Miliband's vision and Michael Foot's with envy...
Such core principles that Germany limited immigration from Poland and other Eastern European states despite them participating in the same internal market.
It's called a transition. We chose 'hard expansion' instead of an orderly adjustment.
Doesn't say much for the "core principles" though, does it?
Transitional arrangements were a two way street. New members also had a long time to adjust various aspects of their economies to full and equal participation in the single market, but there's no way back once the changes have been fully adopted.
Question: any chance at all of Trump being declared unfit under the 25th Amendment?
QTWAIN. It would take the Vice President, the majority of Trump's own cabinet and if Trump objects, which he would, a two-thirds majority of both houses of Congress.
In contrast the impeachment route "only" takes a majority of Representatives and two-thirds of the Senate.
Browsing the Guardian and I've noticed that their logo seems to omit the UKIP colors but includes the green colors, despite UKIP getting more votes than them at the last election. So much for fair and balanced..
It does not mean kowtowing to foreign leaders, whose fear you can smell that we have rejected their set up and will sit off their coast as a "Plan B" example to any others that do not wish to see their national democracies mashed into a 21st Century Austria Hungary.
Those remaining EU member states must be looking on at our ideological battle between Ed Miliband's vision and Michael Foot's with envy...
Such core principles that Germany limited immigration from Poland and other Eastern European states despite them participating in the same internal market.
It's called a transition. We chose 'hard expansion' instead of an orderly adjustment.
Doesn't say much for the "core principles" though, does it?
Transitional arrangements were a two way street. New members also had a long time to adjust various aspects of their economies to full and equal participation in the single market, but there's no way back once the changes have been fully adopted.
So? They were still abandoning the core principles, even if it was only temporary. And as for no going back, I think the UK is going to change that
Browsing the Guardian and I've noticed that their logo seems to omit the UKIP colors but includes the green colors, despite UKIP getting more votes than them at the last election. So much for fair and balanced..
You seem to be writing American. its COLOURS
Blame my iPhone.... I should set it to British. I do try to make the effort to spot the american spellings though.
Question: any chance at all of Trump being declared unfit under the 25th Amendment?
Only if Pence suffers an incapacitating or fatal misfortune at roughly the same time.
Remember - impeach Trump, get Pence.
This is why Clinton despite being somewhat less corrupt and irresponsible would in practice have been in more danger than Trump of being removed. Tim Kaine may not be a great campaigner but he would make a half-decent president.
It does not mean kowtowing to foreign leaders, whose fear you can smell that we have rejected their set up and will sit off their coast as a "Plan B" example to any others that do not wish to see their national democracies mashed into a 21st Century Austria Hungary.
Those remaining EU member states must be looking on at our ideological battle between Ed Miliband's vision and Michael Foot's with envy...
Such core principles that Germany limited immigration from Poland and other Eastern European states despite them participating in the same internal market.
It's called a transition. We chose 'hard expansion' instead of an orderly adjustment.
Re envy: yes they soon will be. We'll be having elections with the ability to fire those with power over us. Theirs will slip away into a Kafkaeseque morass of bureaucrat led decisions (how do I fire the Swedish Commissioner through the ballot box- oh I can't can I?), unable to be held properly to account, not least because you can't have a proper media and political discourse across about 20 languages.
Comments
If Skinner went we'd be looking at something approaching a 1931-style wipeout for Labour. I don't believe they're doing quite as well as some of the polling companies suggest, but I certainly don't think they're doing that badly, either.
EDIT: That said, Llanelli (the next seat down the list, with more complex dynamics due to a strong Plaid presence) could potentially develop into a three-way marginal, depending on the extent of Labour softening/Ukip collapse. Stranger things have happened...
Less safe than Leeds East for instance.
I would have thought the visit of crises Grayling to Bolsover, was:
1. Boost moral of Tory activists/supporters across the UK.
2. Scare sitting Lab MPs so that they end up hording activists even in ultra safe lab seats.
3. eat up any spare seconds of news time that might otherwise be used to give coverage to UKIP/LIbDems
But at this point may can hold out the possibility of cabinet position similtainiasly to lots of MPs
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/bassetlaw/
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2013/04/27/iceland-worlds-first-openly-gay-prime-minister-quits-politics/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xavier_Bettel
Lamb is in serious trouble but there's little likelihood of Clive Lewis going, even in a Labour bloodbath. Even if he can't squeeze the Lib Dem vote, he'll almost certainly win over a lot of the Greens.
"Anyone know how I can cancel an eBay bid? I put 3 quid on a Cowboy Outfit and now I'm 6 minutes away from owning the Labour Party"
Labour 16013 votes
Tory 15218 votes
Based on 61.2% turnout - the referendum was 72.3%
Game on!
Marf lives there though. Could the PB vote be decisive?
There really ought to be some direct Lab-Con swing, and a higher abstention rate amongst remaining Labour voters. But even so, surely not enough against a majority of that size?
https://www.ft.com/content/8489e4a2-3b23-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec
https://twitter.com/MammothWhale/status/864753288465526785
There are "undecideds" to be added to those base numbers,
Nonetheless, would require a swing of a little over 5.5%.
Curiously, the reason he gave for his position on Brexit was that the EU was an undemocratic institution, which some might consider a bit rich. He is an intelligent man though with a good reputation as a constituency MP, which makes me suspect his views may have more to do with the possibility of deselection by his local membership, but I'm not sufficiently involved locally to do more than speculate.
Even Osborne would like that.
What could possibly go wrong?
I can confirm that the LibDem "Second Referendum" is going down badly here in the SW. I personally had direct LibDems --> Tory switchers tonight specifically citing it.
I can also confirm that the UKIP vote has died. Vanished. It's going to Theresa May (not the Tories as such - but same effect, of course).
Labour vote appears quite strong. We were in what should have been a less than promising part of the constituency, so the "not your lot!" responses could mask some Labour --> LibDems movement, but it did feel more like the previous huge Labour tactical voting that won the LibDems the seat until 2015 was unwinding.
To be fair, I did also find a former Tory-voting NHS worker who we have now lost. Not sure how she would vote, but not Tory this time.
Still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" yet in 2017....
Your Man In The Bay
I'm not joking. And, no, I don't understand it.
They just think Farron is a joke and not serious.
I never thought I'd ever consider voting LD but they've just found my price.
If I were in North Norfolk, I think I'd vote Lamb. IIRC, he voted to serve the Article 50 notification.
Rabble rousing against the Germans won't keep the public onside as the negotiations lurch from humiliation to humiliation.
Farron is wrong with his second referendum promise. Should have gone for EEA membership.
Scottish Labour has no discernible purpose left, other than as a repository for habit votes. As younger Scots who have already abandoned Labour in their droves gradually age, they are unlikely to acquire the Labour habit.
EDIT: there's also meant to be an Ipsos Mori either tomorrow or Friday, containing a big surprise of some kind.
@CllrTomMason: Very proud to have been elected as Deputy Provost of @AberdeenCC. I look forward to working hard on behalf of all Aberdonians.
To me that means openly welcoming people who will be useful productive contributors to our society and are prepared to live by our values. It does not mean kowtowing to foreign leaders, whose fear you can smell that we have rejected their set up and will sit off their coast as a "Plan B" example to any others that do not wish to see their national democracies mashed into a 21st Century Austria Hungary.
Sauce for the goose......
In a single year.
Boy, are the Tories going to have some fun with that document.....
Businesses are already disentangling and moving to adjust their supply chains on both sides of the channel as well as establishing bases as they see fit.
It was good to see Barnier acknowledge that A50 is the transitional phase today.
A paper that supports PR should surely care more about the vote share?
I'd have thought the safest bet was to lay him still being there in 2020, but if you've time, have a look at this:
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/05/08/how-trump-could-get-fired
Don't regret Netflix; there is simply too much watchable TV of reasonable to excellent quality out there these days for anyone who aspires to do anything productive with their time...
Noone with a brain will believe anything McDonnell says....
In contrast the impeachment route "only" takes a majority of Representatives and two-thirds of the Senate.
Remember - impeach Trump, get Pence.
This is why Clinton despite being somewhat less corrupt and irresponsible would in practice have been in more danger than Trump of being removed. Tim Kaine may not be a great campaigner but he would make a half-decent president.