"You know he didn't get up there by himself, he doesn't belong up there, he doesn't know what to do while he's up there and he's been elevated beyond his ability to function".
@EmmaVigeland: #BREAKING: @thehill reports that Rep. @justinamash (MI) is the first Republican to express support for impeachment if Comey's memo is true
Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like
8 Gains from the SNP 3 Gains from the Lib Dems 1 Gain from Plaid 80 Gains from Labour.
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
As of right now ?
Orkney Ceredigion Leeds North West Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal. Cambridge marginal.
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
Political pressure that a customs border needs proper controls just strengthens the case for Northern Ireland being inside the EU customs union rather than outside it.
why ?
if youre an NI farmer you have massive access to a local market which has just lost a slab of imports
better volumes, higher prices more flexible subsidies
if youre Monaghan Mushrooms in the RoI you get sacrificed on the altar of french farmers
@BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.
This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
Probably not. Hopeful unionists are expecting a great deal from the scots, but there are several barriers. First, they have to even be amendable to doing so in large numbers, and while that might be the case, it won't be universal. Second, there is already uncertainty in some areas like East Renfrewshire which unionist party has the best chance, because of the third issue, which is as none of them are standing down for the others, there is no pact in place, you were already relying on the public independently deciding in enough numbers to make significant gains, to vote tactically even as the parties don't officially endorse the idea.
That partisanship cannot be set aside even for local government arrangements, which for a system with such proportionality seems crazy, does not bode well at all. If the recent uptick in SNP subsample scores is reflected in reality (rather than subsample reality), then I'm feeling pretty confident about my SNP 50+ bet.
Depends which subsample, TNS and Yougov both had the SNP on about 40% and the last full Scottish poll had the SNP on 41%, based on local election results the SNP should be under 50 seats though over 45
@BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.
This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
Probably not. Hopeful unionists are expecting a great deal from the scots, but there are several barriers. First, they have to even be amendable to doing so in large numbers, and while that might be the case, it won't be universal. Second, there is already uncertainty in some areas like East Renfrewshire which unionist party has the best chance, because of the third issue, which is as none of them are standing down for the others, there is no pact in place, you were already relying on the public independently deciding in enough numbers to make significant gains, to vote tactically even as the parties don't officially endorse the idea.
That partisanship cannot be set aside even for local government arrangements, which for a system with such proportionality seems crazy, does not bode well at all. If the recent uptick in SNP subsample scores is reflected in reality (rather than subsample reality), then I'm feeling pretty confident about my SNP 50+ bet.
Use the Holyrood elections as your guide to Unionist tactical voting and you won't go far wrong.
I'm beginning to think that the LibDems may end up with more Scottish seats than English ones.
@BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.
This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
Probably not. Hopeful unionists are expecting a great deal from the scots, but there are several barriers. First, they have to even be amendable to doing so in large numbers, and while that might be the case, it won't be universal. Second, there is already uncertainty in some areas like East Renfrewshire which unionist party has the best chance, because of the third issue, which is as none of them are standing down for the others, there is no pact in place, you were already relying on the public independently deciding in enough numbers to make significant gains, to vote tactically even as the parties don't officially endorse the idea.
That partisanship cannot be set aside even for local government arrangements, which for a system with such proportionality seems crazy, does not bode well at all. If the recent uptick in SNP subsample scores is reflected in reality (rather than subsample reality), then I'm feeling pretty confident about my SNP 50+ bet.
Depends which subsample
Indeed, that's why I'm not certain about that yet.
Oh dear.....is this the last we'll hear of sermons on Mrs May screening questions?
Campaigning in East Lothian, Ms Sturgeon was asked by the BBC about the case after SNP minders blocked press reporters from asking what the First Minister knew and when.
@BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.
This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
Probably not. Hopeful unionists are expecting a great deal from the scots, but there are several barriers. First, they have to even be amendable to doing so in large numbers, and while that might be the case, it won't be universal. Second, there is already uncertainty in some areas like East Renfrewshire which unionist party has the best chance, because of the third issue, which is as none of them are standing down for the others, there is no pact in place, you were already relying on the public independently deciding in enough numbers to make significant gains, to vote tactically even as the parties don't officially endorse the idea.
That partisanship cannot be set aside even for local government arrangements, which for a system with such proportionality seems crazy, does not bode well at all. If the recent uptick in SNP subsample scores is reflected in reality (rather than subsample reality), then I'm feeling pretty confident about my SNP 50+ bet.
Use the Holyrood elections as your guide to Unionist tactical voting and you won't go far wrong.
I'm beginning to think that the LibDems may end up with more Scottish seats than English ones.
Seems possible if the tactical voting is good enough, they are just much better at concentrating support in Scotland it seems (it's terrible in Wales and pretty awful in England it seems), on similar percentages.
My concern is that the scottish unionists who are wanting to vote tactically are doing so in a sort of phony war, they have to do it when the parties they really back are not openly (as far as I know) admitting it would be good for all of them, and so the effect will to some degree be reduced from what it could be. And of course the East Ren situation, where they parties are openly arguing about who has the best shot.
@BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.
This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
Probably not. Hopeful unionists are expecting a great deal from the scots, but there are several barriers. First, they have to even be amendable to doing so in large numbers, and while that might be the case, it won't be universal. Second, there is already uncertainty in some areas like East Renfrewshire which unionist party has the best chance, because of the third issue, which is as none of them are standing down for the others, there is no pact in place, you were already relying on the public independently deciding in enough numbers to make significant gains, to vote tactically even as the parties don't officially endorse the idea.
That partisanship cannot be set aside even for local government arrangements, which for a system with such proportionality seems crazy, does not bode well at all. If the recent uptick in SNP subsample scores is reflected in reality (rather than subsample reality), then I'm feeling pretty confident about my SNP 50+ bet.
Use the Holyrood elections as your guide to Unionist tactical voting and you won't go far wrong.
I'm beginning to think that the LibDems may end up with more Scottish seats than English ones.
Harrow East, Enfield Southgate, Finchley & Golders Green and Chipping Barnet are all outside of the top 50 most vulnerable Conservative seats. The most vulnerable Con defence in central London would appear to be Kensington (128,) which would go to Labour on a swing of 10.6%.
@BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.
This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
Probably not. Hopeful unionists are expecting a great deal from the scots, but there are several barriers. First, they have to even be amendable to doing so in large numbers, and while that might be the case, it won't be universal. Second, there is already uncertainty in some areas like East Renfrewshire which unionist party has the best chance, because of the third issue, which is as none of them are standing down for the others, there is no pact in place, you were already relying on the public independently deciding in enough numbers to make significant gains, to vote tactically even as the parties don't officially endorse the idea.
That partisanship cannot be set aside even for local government arrangements, which for a system with such proportionality seems crazy, does not bode well at all. If the recent uptick in SNP subsample scores is reflected in reality (rather than subsample reality), then I'm feeling pretty confident about my SNP 50+ bet.
Use the Holyrood elections as your guide to Unionist tactical voting and you won't go far wrong.
I'm beginning to think that the LibDems may end up with more Scottish seats than English ones.
Me too.
It's not inconceivable that they get five North of the border if you see similar levels of tactical voting to last year.
@BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.
This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
Probably not. Hopeful unionists are expecting a great deal from the scots, but there are several barriers. First, they have to even be amendable to doing so in large numbers, and while that might be the case, it won't be universal. Second, there is already uncertainty in some areas like East Renfrewshire which unionist party has the best chance, because of the third issue, which is as none of them are standing down for the others, there is no pact in place, you were already relying on the public independently deciding in enough numbers to make significant gains, to vote tactically even as the parties don't officially endorse the idea.
That partisanship cannot be set aside even for local government arrangements, which for a system with such proportionality seems crazy, does not bode well at all. If the recent uptick in SNP subsample scores is reflected in reality (rather than subsample reality), then I'm feeling pretty confident about my SNP 50+ bet.
Use the Holyrood elections as your guide to Unionist tactical voting and you won't go far wrong.
I'm beginning to think that the LibDems may end up with more Scottish seats than English ones.
Me too.
Shall we get Shadsy to price up the odds?
I remember quite a few successful 'tie' bets in 2015.
Incidentally, cheers to Mr. Pulpstar for his dual tip on Lib Dem seat bands (under 10 and 10-19). I was all green below 40 anyway but put on an extra bottle top on each. Odds have since gone well down.
@OliverCooper: Suspended for forming a coalition with the Conservatives. Yet more proof that the only vote against the SNP is a vote for the @ScotTories. twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/s…
Preventing the SNP from taking power is not the key element, at least as far as I'm concerned. Local parties sometimes need to set aside bullshit and work together, even with people they'd rather not. Making it just flat out against the rules is unreasonable no matter who does it, to prevent no matter who.
Nigel Farage has said he would, “don khaki, pick up a rifle and head for the front lines” if Theresa May fails to deliver Brexit in the fashion he wants.
@BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.
This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
Probably not. Hopeful unionists are expecting a great deal from the scots, but there are several barriers. First, they have to even be amendable to doing so in large numbers, and while that might be the case, it won't be universal. Second, there is already uncertainty in some areas like East Renfrewshire which unionist party has the best chance, because of the third issue, which is as none of them are standing down for the others, there is no pact in place, you were already relying on the public independently deciding in enough numbers to make significant gains, to vote tactically even as the parties don't officially endorse the idea.
That partisanship cannot be set aside even for local government arrangements, which for a system with such proportionality seems crazy, does not bode well at all. If the recent uptick in SNP subsample scores is reflected in reality (rather than subsample reality), then I'm feeling pretty confident about my SNP 50+ bet.
Use the Holyrood elections as your guide to Unionist tactical voting and you won't go far wrong.
I'm beginning to think that the LibDems may end up with more Scottish seats than English ones.
Me too.
Two English seats probable holds (though not dead certs), the rest possible/probable losses or, in the fact of the LDs going nowhere and Tories surging, unlikely gains, and so a couple of gains maybe, at best. Scotland it is, remarkably.
Nigel Farage has said he would, “don khaki, pick up a rifle and head for the front lines” if Theresa May fails to deliver Brexit in the fashion he wants.
Endorsing fascists, espousing Muslims bans, now this.
Time for the remaining Kippers to don black shirts.
Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like
8 Gains from the SNP 3 Gains from the Lib Dems 1 Gain from Plaid 80 Gains from Labour.
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
As of right now ?
Orkney Ceredigion Leeds North West Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal. Cambridge marginal.
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.
The only posters in Oadby (Harborough constituency) are LD. It is a safe Tory seat where they came 4th in 2015, albeit with a good council presence and previous second place. I think we are the only party that bothers nowadays.
@BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.
This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
Probably not. Hopeful unionists are expecting a great deal from the scots, but there are several barriers. First, they have to even be amendable to doing so in large numbers, and while that might be the case, it won't be universal. Second, there is already uncertainty in some areas like East Renfrewshire which unionist party has the best chance, because of the third issue, which is as none of them are standing down for the others, there is no pact in place, you were already relying on the public independently deciding in enough numbers to make significant gains, to vote tactically even as the parties don't officially endorse the idea.
That partisanship cannot be set aside even for local government arrangements, which for a system with such proportionality seems crazy, does not bode well at all. If the recent uptick in SNP subsample scores is reflected in reality (rather than subsample reality), then I'm feeling pretty confident about my SNP 50+ bet.
Use the Holyrood elections as your guide to Unionist tactical voting and you won't go far wrong.
I'm beginning to think that the LibDems may end up with more Scottish seats than English ones.
Me too.
I doubt it myself, but it's not wholly inconceivable. If the polls are to be believed (and I'm still not entirely convinced) then the Lib Dems' anti-Ukip strategy has completely failed, the party is being badly squeezed in England again, and the Welsh Lib Dems are in an even worse state.
In Scotland, however, whilst they're still niche they do appear to have a role in the system - as the Unionist party for voters who are still so repelled by the Conservatives that they need an alternative (and which is also moderate, and thus can simultaneously appeal to ordinary Conservative voters to lend it their support in FPTP contests where their own preferred candidate is weak.) A worse than expected SNP performance could see the Lib Dems make four or possibly even five gains.
@maggieNYT: There is a shift in the senate, per ppl close to talks - concern moving among Rs to rip the Comey bandaid off quick before leg agenda sinks
Just spotted that GfK published another poll this morning. I now make that 22 GB-wide surveys so far in May, of which all bar one have given the Conservatives a vote share of 46% or more.
In previous elections (even in 2015 when he lost) Simon Hughes' constituency was a sea of orange posters. Yesterday I saw none. It may reflect the fact that people don't do posters much these days, but doesn't bode well for him .
Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like
8 Gains from the SNP 3 Gains from the Lib Dems 1 Gain from Plaid 80 Gains from Labour.
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
As of right now ?
Orkney Ceredigion Leeds North West Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal. Cambridge marginal.
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.
The only posters in Oadby (Harborough constituency) are LD. It is a safe Tory seat where they came 4th in 2015, albeit with a good council presence and previous second place. I think we are the only party that bothers nowadays.
I think you're right - I've only seen Lib Dem posters in Colchester. Best odds you can get on Conservatives holding on are...1/8.
Just spotted that GfK published another poll this morning. I now make that 22 GB-wide surveys so far in May, of which all bar one have given the Conservatives a vote share of 46% or more.
Those 22 polls have UKIP on an average of 5.8%. Betfair has under 5% at 1.33, a 75% chance. Given those polls don't factor in the lack of seat the Kippers are standing in, I think you could shave 2% off their average and give that to the Cons
Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like
8 Gains from the SNP 3 Gains from the Lib Dems 1 Gain from Plaid 80 Gains from Labour.
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
As of right now ?
Orkney Ceredigion Leeds North West Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal. Cambridge marginal.
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.
The only posters in Oadby (Harborough constituency) are LD. It is a safe Tory seat where they came 4th in 2015, albeit with a good council presence and previous second place. I think we are the only party that bothers nowadays.
Haven't noticed any posters at all at the other end of that constituency, so could it be Lib Dems looking for the Leicester seats and getting lost?
@maggieNYT: There is a shift in the senate, per ppl close to talks - concern moving among Rs to rip the Comey bandaid off quick before leg agenda sinks
The important part of the "leg agenda" being tax cuts for billionaires.
In previous elections (even in 2015 when he lost) Simon Hughes' constituency was a sea of orange posters. Yesterday I saw none. It may reflect the fact that people don't do posters much these days, but doesn't bode well for him .
Its all micro targeting on Facebook now. Better reach and cheaper than lots of posters.
@MaxPB, thanks for your recommendation. I read The Witcher stories in about 4 weeks, and they are very good indeed. An excellent mix of comedy and horror.
@Sean_F glad to hear you enjoyed themselves, AIUI the TV shows are set to be based on the 8 books written by the author so we should be in for a treat, assuming they don't completely buffer it up and get the casting right. Yennefer and Ciri are going to be the most difficult to cast and will require actresses with real ability.
Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like
8 Gains from the SNP 3 Gains from the Lib Dems 1 Gain from Plaid 80 Gains from Labour.
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
As of right now ?
Orkney Ceredigion Leeds North West Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal. Cambridge marginal.
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.
The only posters in Oadby (Harborough constituency) are LD. It is a safe Tory seat where they came 4th in 2015, albeit with a good council presence and previous second place. I think we are the only party that bothers nowadays.
Haven't noticed any posters at all at the other end of that constituency, so could it be Lib Dems looking for the Leicester seats and getting lost?
There are a couple on the London rd, one by Saisbury and another near the town centre, rather drunkenly in a hedge. I haven't seen any in Market Harborough for anyone.
There are some Tory window posters on Beckingham rd near the tyre place. Not much sign of activity elsewhere.
Still not read any Witcher books (I have very little time for reading, and have just started a 96,000 word proofreading torture). And I don't have Netflix. Me miserum!
Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like
8 Gains from the SNP 3 Gains from the Lib Dems 1 Gain from Plaid 80 Gains from Labour.
Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
As of right now ?
Orkney Ceredigion Leeds North West Sheffield, Hallam
Westmorland marginal. Cambridge marginal.
That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.
Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.
Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.
Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.
The only posters in Oadby (Harborough constituency) are LD. It is a safe Tory seat where they came 4th in 2015, albeit with a good council presence and previous second place. I think we are the only party that bothers nowadays.
Haven't noticed any posters at all at the other end of that constituency, so could it be Lib Dems looking for the Leicester seats and getting lost?
There are a couple on the London rd, one by Saisbury and another near the town centre, rather drunkenly in a hedge. I haven't seen any in Market Harborough for anyone.
There are some Tory window posters on Beckingham rd near the tyre place. Not much sign of activity elsewhere.
There are no Yvette Cooper posters in Normanton. Though I have seen some Mary Creagh Posters in Wakefield. Near the prison
Preventing the SNP from taking power is not the key element, at least as far as I'm concerned. Local parties sometimes need to set aside bullshit and work together, even with people they'd rather not. Making it just flat out against the rules is unreasonable no matter who does it, to prevent no matter who.
It's not flat out against the rules. It's the deal between the two parties that led to the suspension. No compulsory council redundancies is SLABS position. That was not guaranteed in this case.
Preventing the SNP from taking power is not the key element, at least as far as I'm concerned. Local parties sometimes need to set aside bullshit and work together, even with people they'd rather not. Making it just flat out against the rules is unreasonable no matter who does it, to prevent no matter who.
It's not flat out against the rules. It's the deal between the two parties that led to the suspension. No compulsory council redundancies is SLABS position. That was not guaranteed in this case.
Not quite as harsh then, but not by much- saying you cannot deviate from a position despite local circumstances, allowing local parties to decide if it is necessary in those local circumstances.
“We might be working on transitional measures post-Brexit, on a phasing-out period and a phasing-in towards the new relationship, but the real transition period is now, before exit,” he said. “I would like to recommend all economic players, all economic operators, to make use of this period, so that the day of this exit, probably March 2019, is as orderly as possible.”
Still not read any Witcher books (I have very little time for reading, and have just started a 96,000 word proofreading torture). And I don't have Netflix. Me miserum!
Narcos, Stranger Things and House of Cards alone make Netflix worth while.
Still not read any Witcher books (I have very little time for reading, and have just started a 96,000 word proofreading torture). And I don't have Netflix. Me miserum!
Narcos, Stranger Things and House of Cards alone make Netflix worth while.
Still not read any Witcher books (I have very little time for reading, and have just started a 96,000 word proofreading torture). And I don't have Netflix. Me miserum!
Narcos, Stranger Things and House of Cards alone make Netflix worth while.
In previous elections (even in 2015 when he lost) Simon Hughes' constituency was a sea of orange posters. Yesterday I saw none. It may reflect the fact that people don't do posters much these days, but doesn't bode well for him .
Its all micro targeting on Facebook now. Better reach and cheaper than lots of posters.
The targeting on possible with Online adverts is great but I'm not seeing it targeted very well this year. On Facebook, I'm getting adds for Labour, and on Non-Facebook sits, I'm getting lots of Lib Dem adverts. which considering I've liked A lode of Libertarian things on Facebook e.g. IEA, and visit a number of Libertarian websites sights, does make me wonder how much effort they are putting in.
For what its worth I'm not seeing many Conservative adds ether. anybody else seeing political adds they where not expecting?
Just spotted that GfK published another poll this morning. I now make that 22 GB-wide surveys so far in May, of which all bar one have given the Conservatives a vote share of 46% or more.
Those 22 polls have UKIP on an average of 5.8%. Betfair has under 5% at 1.33, a 75% chance. Given those polls don't factor in the lack of seat the Kippers are standing in, I think you could shave 2% off their average and give that to the Cons
Ukip dropped like a stone just after the election was called, and have - if you examine weekly averages - been in continuous decline throughout the campaign. Given their withdrawal in so many seats, it now seems very unlikely indeed that they will make 5%. They probably won't even make 4% (context: the Greens polled about 1.15m votes last time, and that equated to 3.8% of the popular vote.)
I think that a meaningful proportion of the remaining Ukip VI in the polls now comes from people who won't have a Ukip candidate to vote for on polling day, and probably won't realise this until they open their ballot papers and discover that their preferred party is missing. Quite a lot of snap decisions are going to be made in polling booths on this basis.
Saw something v briefly this evening ..My local MP has his name on adverts by the roadside...and I think it says something akin to Jerry Quin working with Theresa May. so name recognition added even in a ROCK SOLID Tory seat.
Nigel Farage has said he would, “don khaki, pick up a rifle and head for the front lines” if Theresa May fails to deliver Brexit in the fashion he wants.
Endorsing fascists, espousing Muslims bans, now this.
Time for the remaining Kippers to don black shirts.
There's a huge UKIP vote to squeeze there, and the Beast reportedly hasn't done a lot of work for a couple of decades - but surely it's unthinkable that somewhere like Bolsover could be in play for the Tories?
In previous elections (even in 2015 when he lost) Simon Hughes' constituency was a sea of orange posters. Yesterday I saw none. It may reflect the fact that people don't do posters much these days, but doesn't bode well for him .
Its all micro targeting on Facebook now. Better reach and cheaper than lots of posters.
The targeting on possible with Online adverts is great but I'm not seeing it targeted very well this year. On Facebook, I'm getting adds for Labour, and on Non-Facebook sits, I'm getting lots of Lib Dem adverts. which considering I've liked A lode of Libertarian things on Facebook e.g. IEA, and visit a number of Libertarian websites sights, does make me wonder how much effort they are putting in.
For what its worth I'm not seeing many Conservative adds ether. anybody else seeing political adds they where not expecting?
I'm not seeing any political ads. Plenty for the B&I lions though.
Nigel Farage has said he would, “don khaki, pick up a rifle and head for the front lines” if Theresa May fails to deliver Brexit in the fashion he wants.
...
Time for the remaining Kippers to don black shirts.
A bit drastic, but that might get them an endorsement from The Daily Mail.
There's a huge UKIP vote to squeeze there, and the Beast reportedly hasn't done a lot of work for a couple of decades - but surely it's unthinkable that somewhere like Bolsover could be in play for the Tories?
But if you want to win votes then Grayling is not your man
Nigel Farage has said he would, “don khaki, pick up a rifle and head for the front lines” if Theresa May fails to deliver Brexit in the fashion he wants.
...
Time for the remaining Kippers to don black shirts.
A bit drastic, but that might get them an endorsement from The Daily Mail.
The expelled Kipper in Thurrock that used to organise Newham National Front is out campaigning for the Conservatives
fpt Eastwinger said: Chris Hanratty (UEA Election Forecast) reckons Norfolk will go completely blue. Norman Lamb 100% lose and Clive Lewis (Norwich South) 66% lose.
Is Lewis citing this Hanratty analysis in his election collateral?
71% leave in the referendum. Would need all of UKIP to move straight to Tories and squeeze the labour vote. Its a WWC seat and if it falls then Labour are getting pounded like the French/Spanish fleet at Trafalgar.
He may not win, although he leads with the Irish public as a whole Varadkar trails Housing Minister Simon Coveney with FG voters, although even he has accepted there may be customs checks at ports and airports
There's a huge UKIP vote to squeeze there, and the Beast reportedly hasn't done a lot of work for a couple of decades - but surely it's unthinkable that somewhere like Bolsover could be in play for the Tories?
But if you want to win votes then Grayling is not your man
Swap Grayling for Fallon and your sentence still works
Sky news vox pops in wells and Yeovil not very keen on lib dem policy of another vote.
Wells and Yeovil both have healthy Tory majorities now (about 5.5K and 7.5K respectively.) Mendip was split pretty much evenly in the EU referendum; South Somerset voted nearly 60:40 to Leave. Ukip was third in both seats in 2015 and has withdrawn in both seats this time around. The Lib Dems stand next to no chance of retaking either.
Sky news vox pops in wells and Yeovil not very keen on lib dem policy of another vote.
Same with ITV interviewing students in Cheltenham.
And BBC interviewing voters in SW London on BBC1 6pm News.
I thought the BBC report on the LD manifesto was absolutely perfect for the Conservatives - taking about a 2nd EU referendum, votes at 16, cannabis - all things certain to repel Con supporters and firm up the Con vote.
In previous elections (even in 2015 when he lost) Simon Hughes' constituency was a sea of orange posters. Yesterday I saw none. It may reflect the fact that people don't do posters much these days, but doesn't bode well for him .
Its all micro targeting on Facebook now. Better reach and cheaper than lots of posters.
The targeting on possible with Online adverts is great but I'm not seeing it targeted very well this year. On Facebook, I'm getting adds for Labour, and on Non-Facebook sits, I'm getting lots of Lib Dem adverts. which considering I've liked A lode of Libertarian things on Facebook e.g. IEA, and visit a number of Libertarian websites sights, does make me wonder how much effort they are putting in.
For what its worth I'm not seeing many Conservative adds ether. anybody else seeing political adds they where not expecting?
I'm not seeing any political ads. Plenty for the B&I lions though.
It will be interesting to see the different strategies at work with people reporting back what social media ads they come across.
The Tories are going for as many seats as possible, so their targets will be those living in seats maybe 30-60 down the list, and a few either side aimed at known UKIP and Leave voters. If you're a Tory member in a safe seat you won't see any of this, probably don't even know it's happening.
Labour, on the other hand, appear to be trying to maximise their vote total rather than seat total. Their messaging won't be as individually targeted, but will concentrate on areas of known support and core voters. Their opponents might describe it as the echo chamber. Their members in safe seats will be bombarded with ads and encouraged to share with all their like minded friends, so convinced they'll win that they can persuade some poor student to throw ten bags of sand at a bookie in support of the Messiah.
Comments
"You know he didn't get up there by himself, he doesn't belong up there, he doesn't know what to do while he's up there and he's been elevated beyond his ability to function".
Mind you, the same could be said of Corbyn.
Mr. 1000, I hope that stays yellow. As that gets me more profit.
There are two for Labour in my street. Mind you, one is next to a "For Sale" sign which seems appropriate.
if youre an NI farmer you have massive access to a local market which has just lost a slab of imports
better volumes, higher prices more flexible subsidies
if youre Monaghan Mushrooms in the RoI you get sacrificed on the altar of french farmers
In 83 Tories loss was Cathcart and a few other left trending cities.
I'm beginning to think that the LibDems may end up with more Scottish seats than English ones.
Edit - Well it is London.
@Grace_E_OKeeffe: Absolutely shocking by Labour. Punishing their own cllrs for preventing the SNP from taking power. #GE2017 https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/864878760008593410
https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/864760197365026820
Campaigning in East Lothian, Ms Sturgeon was asked by the BBC about the case after SNP minders blocked press reporters from asking what the First Minister knew and when.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15291250.Nicola_Sturgeon_back_SNP_candidate_at_centre_of_legal_watchdog_probe/?ref=twtrec
My concern is that the scottish unionists who are wanting to vote tactically are doing so in a sort of phony war, they have to do it when the parties they really back are not openly (as far as I know) admitting it would be good for all of them, and so the effect will to some degree be reduced from what it could be. And of course the East Ren situation, where they parties are openly arguing about who has the best shot.
Croydon Central (Con defence #3)
Twickenham (20)
Kingston & Surbiton (26)
Sutton & Cheam (40)
Harrow East, Enfield Southgate, Finchley & Golders Green and Chipping Barnet are all outside of the top 50 most vulnerable Conservative seats. The most vulnerable Con defence in central London would appear to be Kensington (128,) which would go to Labour on a swing of 10.6%.
I remember quite a few successful 'tie' bets in 2015.
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/864882368343101441
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-brexit-rifle-pick-up-uk-eu-withdrawal-ukip-leader-liberal-democrat-a7741331.html
Nigel Farage has said he would, “don khaki, pick up a rifle and head for the front lines” if Theresa May fails to deliver Brexit in the fashion he wants.
Time for the remaining Kippers to don black shirts.
In Scotland, however, whilst they're still niche they do appear to have a role in the system - as the Unionist party for voters who are still so repelled by the Conservatives that they need an alternative (and which is also moderate, and thus can simultaneously appeal to ordinary Conservative voters to lend it their support in FPTP contests where their own preferred candidate is weak.) A worse than expected SNP performance could see the Lib Dems make four or possibly even five gains.
http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-to-push-for-north-to-stay-in-single-market-if-he-wins-fg-race-35714653.html
The Lib Dem Manifesto - What You Need To Know - labour.org.uk
Only Labour Can Provide The Real Opposition In This General election
There are some Tory window posters on Beckingham rd near the tyre place. Not much sign of activity elsewhere.
It's the deal between the two parties that led to the suspension.
No compulsory council redundancies is SLABS position.
That was not guaranteed in this case.
“We might be working on transitional measures post-Brexit, on a phasing-out period and a phasing-in towards the new relationship, but the real transition period is now, before exit,” he said. “I would like to recommend all economic players, all economic operators, to make use of this period, so that the day of this exit, probably March 2019, is as orderly as possible.”
For what its worth I'm not seeing many Conservative adds ether. anybody else seeing political adds they where not expecting?
I think that a meaningful proportion of the remaining Ukip VI in the polls now comes from people who won't have a Ukip candidate to vote for on polling day, and probably won't realise this until they open their ballot papers and discover that their preferred party is missing. Quite a lot of snap decisions are going to be made in polling booths on this basis.
Eastwinger said:
Chris Hanratty (UEA Election Forecast) reckons Norfolk will go completely blue. Norman Lamb 100% lose and Clive Lewis (Norwich South) 66% lose.
Is Lewis citing this Hanratty analysis in his election collateral?
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/864905781782745088
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/864907641885261824
LAB
22,542
51.2%
CON
10,764
24.5%
UKIP
9,228
21.0%
LIB
1,464
3.3%
71% leave in the referendum. Would need all of UKIP to move straight to Tories and squeeze the labour vote. Its a WWC seat and if it falls then Labour are getting pounded like the French/Spanish fleet at Trafalgar.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4515186/Maxine-Peake-paid-firm-registered-tax-planing-firm.html
I thought the BBC report on the LD manifesto was absolutely perfect for the Conservatives - taking about a 2nd EU referendum, votes at 16, cannabis - all things certain to repel Con supporters and firm up the Con vote.
The Tories are going for as many seats as possible, so their targets will be those living in seats maybe 30-60 down the list, and a few either side aimed at known UKIP and Leave voters. If you're a Tory member in a safe seat you won't see any of this, probably don't even know it's happening.
Labour, on the other hand, appear to be trying to maximise their vote total rather than seat total. Their messaging won't be as individually targeted, but will concentrate on areas of known support and core voters. Their opponents might describe it as the echo chamber. Their members in safe seats will be bombarded with ads and encouraged to share with all their like minded friends, so convinced they'll win that they can persuade some poor student to throw ten bags of sand at a bookie in support of the Messiah.