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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pressure on the President heralds the return of Marf

SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pressure on the President heralds the return of Marf

We’ve not seen a Marf cartoon on PB for some time but that all changes this afternoon with this drawing on Donald Trump who clearly is under a lot of pressure.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,020
    edited May 2017
    Welcome back Marf
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,091
    Good to see Marf back again!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/864868201435459584
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,020
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/864868201435459584

    How many elections can Sinn Féin fight in one year?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Where's Ratty?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/864868201435459584

    How many elections can Sinn Féin fight in one year?
    So they have a realistic shot at tea chuck ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Welcome back, Miss Marf :)

    Hmm. What do PBers have on their toast? Butter? Margarine? Honey?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/864868201435459584

    How many elections can Sinn Féin fight in one year?
    I doubt Gerry Adams will enter the Fine Gael leadership race, FG is the least nationalist of the 2 main Irish parties
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/864868201435459584

    The Enda Kenny's time in the job then. They'll have Taoiseach for a replacement.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,736
    Good to see Marf back, and with a good one!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Welcome back Marf. :smiley:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,020
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/864868201435459584

    How many elections can Sinn Féin fight in one year?
    So they have a realistic shot at tea chuck ?
    Nah. But they can cause problems for Brexit, hard border, and Northern Ireland to have special status in the EU.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Essexit said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/864868201435459584

    The Enda Kenny's time in the job then. They'll have Taoiseach for a replacement.
    I admire your patience in waiting for that opportunity. Well done!.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited May 2017
    We're putting the band back together

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzOHq5WbQ8k
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Welcome back, Miss Marf :)

    Hmm. What do PBers have on their toast? Butter? Margarine? Honey?

    Nutella. Peanut butter (if it's the proper American stuff).
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Welcome home Marf, hope you and Ratty are both well.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Scotland's newest party - ALAB !

    https://twitter.com/AberdeenLabour/status/864855275454517254
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,091
    Trouble in Bradford?
    http://archbishopcranmer.com/christian-parliamentary-candidate-bradford-excluded-muslim-election-hustings/
    George Grant is the Conservative Party’s parliamentary candidate in Bradford West. He also happens to be a Christian, and is thereby excluded from Bradford’s Muslim Women’s Council General Election hustings, which appears to be restricted to Muslim candidates
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    nunu said:

    Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.

    I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like

    8 Gains from the SNP
    3 Gains from the Lib Dems
    1 Gain from Plaid
    80 Gains from Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    edited May 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Trouble in Bradford?
    http://archbishopcranmer.com/christian-parliamentary-candidate-bradford-excluded-muslim-election-hustings/
    George Grant is the Conservative Party’s parliamentary candidate in Bradford West. He also happens to be a Christian, and is thereby excluded from Bradford’s Muslim Women’s Council General Election hustings, which appears to be restricted to Muslim candidates

    That is poor, obviously Mr Grant has no chance of getting in but to be excluded from a Hustings due to religion I'm sure must be a legal violation of some sort...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.

    I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like

    8 Gains from the SNP
    3 Gains from the Lib Dems
    1 Gain from Plaid
    80 Gains from Labour.
    Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    Sandpit said:

    Trouble in Bradford?
    http://archbishopcranmer.com/christian-parliamentary-candidate-bradford-excluded-muslim-election-hustings/
    George Grant is the Conservative Party’s parliamentary candidate in Bradford West. He also happens to be a Christian, and is thereby excluded from Bradford’s Muslim Women’s Council General Election hustings, which appears to be restricted to Muslim candidates

    He'd be wasting his time there anyway. Why bother?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Sandpit said:

    Trouble in Bradford?
    http://archbishopcranmer.com/christian-parliamentary-candidate-bradford-excluded-muslim-election-hustings/
    George Grant is the Conservative Party’s parliamentary candidate in Bradford West. He also happens to be a Christian, and is thereby excluded from Bradford’s Muslim Women’s Council General Election hustings, which appears to be restricted to Muslim candidates

    "Bana Gora, chief executive of the Muslim Women's Council, said: “The women of Bradford West have requested the opportunity to engage with these two candidates on what real, tangible policies they will implement in Bradford, should they be elected to office."

    Did she ask every single woman in Bradford West ? Really hate it when so called "community leaders" purport to be speaking for whole groups of people.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    nunu said:

    Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.

    I find it hard to be realistic about this election. When it was called I thought that the Tories had a good shot at 50% and a 25% lead. Maybe 100 gains.

    Now it's looking like Labour are doing better than that, so perhaps you might see the Tories on 47% with a 15% lead. So, "only" 50 Tory gains.

    Is that realistic? I don't know. They are both absurd in their own multiple ways.

    Someone said earlier that they thought the Conservative campaign hadn't started properly yet, that they were toying with Corbyn and would shortly go in for the kill. I don't know about that. I think that to fight an effective campaign you go in hard, you go in early and you go in often. I'm beginning to think that perhaps May and her team simply aren't as good as Cameron and Osborne at fighting election campaigns. Maybe not even as good as Corbyn.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.

    I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like

    8 Gains from the SNP
    3 Gains from the Lib Dems
    1 Gain from Plaid
    80 Gains from Labour.
    Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
    As of right now ?

    Orkney
    Ceredigion
    Leeds North West
    Sheffield, Hallam


    Westmorland marginal.
    Cambridge marginal.
  • Greenwich_FloaterGreenwich_Floater Posts: 389
    I think the polls are slightly over-estimating Labour, however 80 CON gains is a big ask. Probably in the range of 50-65 more likely. I think 33% for Labour is way off the end result. Corbyn is way too toxic for the vast majority for them to poll that much.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    Trouble in Bradford?
    http://archbishopcranmer.com/christian-parliamentary-candidate-bradford-excluded-muslim-election-hustings/
    George Grant is the Conservative Party’s parliamentary candidate in Bradford West. He also happens to be a Christian, and is thereby excluded from Bradford’s Muslim Women’s Council General Election hustings, which appears to be restricted to Muslim candidates

    Imagine the furore if a candidate got excluded from a hustings on the grounds that they were Muslim? This sort of discrimination should not exist in 21st century Britain.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/864868201435459584

    How many elections can Sinn Féin fight in one year?
    So they have a realistic shot at tea chuck ?
    Nah. But they can cause problems for Brexit, hard border, and Northern Ireland to have special status in the EU.
    http://www.newstalk.com/French-farm-lobby-calls-for-hard-border-in-Ireland

    Ireland's biggest problem is going to be the EU.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    nunu said:

    Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.

    Not much more than 50. I too reckon that Labour's vote share is being over-estimated, but beyond a certain point their seats start to become increasingly difficult to pick off (i.e. Conservative gains are increasingly dependent on the vast bulk of the Ukip vote coming across *AND* sitting Labour candidates and constituency parties having trouble mobilising the vote.) That said, the one thing that might tip the scale decisively in favour of Mrs May is if we also see heavy differentials in swing and turnout, i.e. the Tories outperforming in the marginals whilst Labour outperforms in ultra-safe urban constituencies, which is not at all out of the question - there are so many variables to be considered in this election, are there not.

    Oh, and I'm a natural pessimist and find that this attitude means I am less frequently disappointed, and more often pleasantly surprised.

    I think that the Scottish Conservatives will make no more than modest progress against the SNP, and the Tories and Lib Dems will essentially play out a score draw (say, Southport, Carshalton & Wallington and North Norfolk for Twickenham, Lewes and Kingston & Surbiton.)
  • Greenwich_FloaterGreenwich_Floater Posts: 389
    OblitusSumMe said:

    nunu said:

    Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.

    I find it hard to be realistic about this election. When it was called I thought that the Tories had a good shot at 50% and a 25% lead. Maybe 100 gains.

    Now it's looking like Labour are doing better than that, so perhaps you might see the Tories on 47% with a 15% lead. So, "only" 50 Tory gains.

    Is that realistic? I don't know. They are both absurd in their own multiple ways.

    Someone said earlier that they thought the Conservative campaign hadn't started properly yet, that they were toying with Corbyn and would shortly go in for the kill. I don't know about that. I think that to fight an effective campaign you go in hard, you go in early and you go in often. I'm beginning to think that perhaps May and her team simply aren't as good as Cameron and Osborne at fighting election campaigns. Maybe not even as good as Corbyn.
    I do think May has been fairly lacklustre to date and with a stronger Labour party might have been in some bother (although not with that Labour manifesto)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    edited May 2017
    50% and a 25% lead would be alot more than 100 gains I think. More like 150.

    Blair didn't get anywhere near 50% in 1997 remember. He won 418 seats with a 12.5% lead.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    https://twitter.com/camusson/status/864879189219999744
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    OblitusSumMe said:

    nunu said:

    Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.

    I find it hard to be realistic about this election. When it was called I thought that the Tories had a good shot at 50% and a 25% lead. Maybe 100 gains.

    Now it's looking like Labour are doing better than that, so perhaps you might see the Tories on 47% with a 15% lead. So, "only" 50 Tory gains.

    Is that realistic? I don't know. They are both absurd in their own multiple ways.

    Someone said earlier that they thought the Conservative campaign hadn't started properly yet, that they were toying with Corbyn and would shortly go in for the kill. I don't know about that. I think that to fight an effective campaign you go in hard, you go in early and you go in often. I'm beginning to think that perhaps May and her team simply aren't as good as Cameron and Osborne at fighting election campaigns. Maybe not even as good as Corbyn.
    I feel exactly like you, but today I saw that 16% of current labour support is made up of people who did not vote during EuRef and last GE, these people, 95% of them will not vote. So the Labour share is being overestimated.

    On the tory campaign Theresa May has said she wants to run a positive campaign.....we shall see about that. But if she wants a mandate to implement her manifesto then it would be better to win on the policies rather than "not corbyn". The manifesto is being launched tommorow, I think her (and it really is all about her) campaign will step up a gear from then on, before that and the public will have forgotton by election day.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Trouble in Bradford?
    http://archbishopcranmer.com/christian-parliamentary-candidate-bradford-excluded-muslim-election-hustings/
    George Grant is the Conservative Party’s parliamentary candidate in Bradford West. He also happens to be a Christian, and is thereby excluded from Bradford’s Muslim Women’s Council General Election hustings, which appears to be restricted to Muslim candidates

    That is poor, obviously Mr Grant has no chance of getting in but to be excluded from a Hustings due to religion I'm sure must be a legal violation of some sort...
    I'm sure one of our lawyer or agent friends can comment on legality, but to exclude a main party candidate from an election hustings on the grounds of his religion appears on the face of it to be discriminatory. There would be outrage if the hustings was in a Christian centre and the Muslim candidate were not invited.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Someone said earlier that they thought the Conservative campaign hadn't started properly yet, that they were toying with Corbyn and would shortly go in for the kill. I don't know about that. I think that to fight an effective campaign you go in hard, you go in early and you go in often.

    One of the few reliable things we know about advertising amid the all-pervasive charlatanry is that, unsurprisingly, adverts are more effective the closer to the decision moment they hit the brain. Instead of spending a fortune on an expensive agency (with 15% going to them out of ‘controlled expenditure’) and putting up posters to be ‘part of the national conversation’ weeks or months before the vote, we decided to 1) hire extremely smart physicists to consider everything from first principles, 2) put almost all our money into digital (~98%), 3) hold the vast majority of our budget back and drop it all right at the end with money spent on those adverts that experiments had shown were most effective (internal code name ‘Waterloo’). When things are digital you can be more empirical and control the timing. The world of advertising agencies and PR companies were sure we had screwed up because they did not see what we were doing. (Tim Bell told everybody we were doomed because we hadn’t hired one of his companies.) This points to another important issue – it is actually hard even for very competent and determined people to track digital communication accurately, and it is important that the political media is not set up to do this. There was not a single report anywhere (and very little curiosity) on how the official Leave campaign spent 98% of its marketing budget. There was a lot of coverage of a few tactical posters. (per Dominic Cummings; my emphasis)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,298
    Sandpit said:

    Trouble in Bradford?
    http://archbishopcranmer.com/christian-parliamentary-candidate-bradford-excluded-muslim-election-hustings/
    George Grant is the Conservative Party’s parliamentary candidate in Bradford West. He also happens to be a Christian, and is thereby excluded from Bradford’s Muslim Women’s Council General Election hustings, which appears to be restricted to Muslim candidates

    "Only White people can be racist"...?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,298
    Welcome back, Marf, and with a great cartoon too!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    calum said:

    https://twitter.com/camusson/status/864879189219999744

    If Twitter is correct, Labour have formed a joint administration with the SNP in Fife. No sign of their councillors there being suspended. If SLAB is prepared to actively take sides with the Nationalists in this way, then you really have to wonder (if you haven't already done so) what point there is to its continuing existence?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    edited May 2017
    chestnut said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/864868201435459584

    How many elections can Sinn Féin fight in one year?
    So they have a realistic shot at tea chuck ?
    Nah. But they can cause problems for Brexit, hard border, and Northern Ireland to have special status in the EU.
    http://www.newstalk.com/French-farm-lobby-calls-for-hard-border-in-Ireland

    Ireland's biggest problem is going to be the EU.
    Political pressure that a customs border needs proper controls just strengthens the case for Northern Ireland being inside the EU customs union rather than outside it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    5% swing in 2010, 97 gains.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Black_Rook said:

    calum said:

    https://twitter.com/camusson/status/864879189219999744

    If Twitter is correct, Labour have formed a joint administration with the SNP in Fife. No sign of their councillors there being suspended. If SLAB is prepared to actively take sides with the Nationalists in this way, then you really have to wonder (if you haven't already done so) what point there is to its continuing existence?
    Its the nature of PR elections that coalitions will be necessary between political opponents. Don't like it Labour? Then why on earth did you introduce PR elections to this country?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,270
    edited May 2017
    East London:This morning it was dead babies through incest, this afternoon its terror

    We must be mad etc etc

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/864855089068027905
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    I guess Labour's only hope is that we have a 1983 Tory overstatement polling failure and the Tories are restricted to under 400 seats as they were then.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Greenwich_Floater said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    nunu said:

    Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.

    I find it hard to be realistic about this election. When it was called I thought that the Tories had a good shot at 50% and a 25% lead. Maybe 100 gains.

    Now it's looking like Labour are doing better than that, so perhaps you might see the Tories on 47% with a 15% lead. So, "only" 50 Tory gains.

    Is that realistic? I don't know. They are both absurd in their own multiple ways.

    Someone said earlier that they thought the Conservative campaign hadn't started properly yet, that they were toying with Corbyn and would shortly go in for the kill. I don't know about that. I think that to fight an effective campaign you go in hard, you go in early and you go in often. I'm beginning to think that perhaps May and her team simply aren't as good as Cameron and Osborne at fighting election campaigns. Maybe not even as good as Corbyn.
    I do think May has been fairly lacklustre to date and with a stronger Labour party might have been in some bother (although not with that Labour manifesto)
    I'm finding the campaign very hard to read. Perhaps we're not finding it inspiring because we aren't amongst the targets? A lot of talk of campaigning moving increasingly beyond traditional methods and working through Facebook and social media, aimed at specific audiences. All I can say so far is that there are virtually no posters visible anywhere in town, and I did get some bumpf through the letter box for the locals but only a day or two before polling day.

    All that said, (a) we've not had the Conservative manifesto launch and (b) perhaps they're saving the full blitz of attack ads for closer to the election? It might simply be that they don't want their messages to become stale, or for the hapless Corbyn to be battered so hard that some voters start to feel misplaced sympathy for the old bugger. And isn't it often said that most voters don't really start to pay attention until the moment of decision is imminent, anyway?

    In the meantime, the newspapers have been doing a very efficient job of shredding Labour's plans on the Government's behalf. Even The Guardian led the day after the launch with McCluskey's less than helpful remarks.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,091
    nunu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Trouble in Bradford?
    http://archbishopcranmer.com/christian-parliamentary-candidate-bradford-excluded-muslim-election-hustings/
    George Grant is the Conservative Party’s parliamentary candidate in Bradford West. He also happens to be a Christian, and is thereby excluded from Bradford’s Muslim Women’s Council General Election hustings, which appears to be restricted to Muslim candidates

    "Bana Gora, chief executive of the Muslim Women's Council, said: “The women of Bradford West have requested the opportunity to engage with these two candidates on what real, tangible policies they will implement in Bradford, should they be elected to office."

    Did she ask every single woman in Bradford West ? Really hate it when so called "community leaders" purport to be speaking for whole groups of people.
    Indeed, sadly the worst aspects of subcontinental politics making their way over to the UK. I recall from 2015 a number of gender segregated meetings in places like Bradford too, not good.

    Even worse, there will likely be sermons from the various imams on the Friday before the election, reminding their people who they should be voting for, along with 'representatives' at the polling stations to make sure they do.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If the Conservatives poll 48% or so, as the polls are currently suggesting, they will make large numbers of gains. Those extra votes have to go somewhere.
  • CommanderShepardCommanderShepard Posts: 135
    Labour have two hopes, no and Bob. Bob is dead.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.

    SLab maybe cutting their nose off to spite their face here and loose the lot as Independents.

    Or worse...!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Pulpstar said:

    I guess Labour's only hope is that we have a 1983 Tory overstatement polling failure and the Tories are restricted to under 400 seats as they were then.

    I thought that the 1983 fail was (a) modest and (b) under-estimated the vote share of the Alliance rather than Labour? But I may be misremembering, I've read so much of this sort of stuff over the last few weeks!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,091
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Black_Rook said:

    calum said:

    https://twitter.com/camusson/status/864879189219999744

    If Twitter is correct, Labour have formed a joint administration with the SNP in Fife. No sign of their councillors there being suspended. If SLAB is prepared to actively take sides with the Nationalists in this way, then you really have to wonder (if you haven't already done so) what point there is to its continuing existence?
    Its the nature of PR elections that coalitions will be necessary between political opponents. Don't like it Labour? Then why on earth did you introduce PR elections to this country?
    Because in 1997 it was the anti-Tory Alliance they were proud to be a part of. Two decades later it's the anti-SNP Alliance and they want nothing to do with it! Completely different, see :D
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    50% and a 25% lead would be alot more than 100 gains I think. More like 150.

    Blair didn't get anywhere near 50% in 1997 remember. He won 418 seats with a 12.5% lead.

    The last remaining Labour MPs will be seen huddling around braziers with only copies of their 2017 manifesto to burn to keep them warm.

    (Blair made 145 gains in 1997 on a 10% swing. A lead for Team Theresa of 25% would equate to a swing of 9.3%, so nearer to 150 gains than 100 is certainly... realistic)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,020
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.

    This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,091
    CommanderShepard said:

    Labour have two hopes, no and Bob. Bob is dead.

    And Bob is still way more entertaining!
  • CommanderShepardCommanderShepard Posts: 135
    AlastairMeeks said:

    If the Conservatives poll 48% or so, as the polls are currently suggesting, they will make large numbers of gains. Those extra votes have to go somewhere.

    Given some of the polling we have seen, they are pilling up votes where they need too. Labour on the other hand is pilling up votes where it doesn't. I still think it will be 70 gains or so for a hundred seat majority for Team TM
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    SimonStClare said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.

    SLab maybe cutting their nose off to spite their face here and loose the lot as Independents.

    Or worse...!
    The local party might revolt, turn itself into "Aberdeen Independent Labour" or something, and simply fight the official party slate at every election from now on. This is just the kind of thing that has happened to Welsh Labour in some of the councils in the Valleys, where situations have developed that are not necessarily to Labour's advantage.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,020
    edited May 2017
    CommanderShepard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    If the Conservatives poll 48% or so, as the polls are currently suggesting, they will make large numbers of gains. Those extra votes have to go somewhere.

    Given some of the polling we have seen, they are pilling up votes where they need too. Labour on the other hand is pilling up votes where it doesn't. I still think it will be 70 gains or so for a hundred seat majority for Team TM
    70 gains = 152 seat majority.
  • CommanderShepardCommanderShepard Posts: 135
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CommanderShepard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    If the Conservatives poll 48% or so, as the polls are currently suggesting, they will make large numbers of gains. Those extra votes have to go somewhere.

    Given some of the polling we have seen, they are pilling up votes where they need too. Labour on the other hand is pilling up votes where it doesn't. I still think it will be 70 gains or so for a hundred seat majority for Team TM
    70 gains = 152 seat majority.
    Whoops.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    CommanderShepard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    If the Conservatives poll 48% or so, as the polls are currently suggesting, they will make large numbers of gains. Those extra votes have to go somewhere.

    Given some of the polling we have seen, they are pilling up votes where they need too. Labour on the other hand is pilling up votes where it doesn't. I still think it will be 70 gains or so for a hundred seat majority for Team TM
    Sorry to be a pedant, but unless you're thinking that the Tories are going to make a huge number of gains from Labour but somehow lose several dozen seats back to the Lib Dems, then 70 gains doesn't equal a 100 seat majority.

    If the Conservatives make a net 70 gains then they'd have a majority of about 150.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.

    I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like

    8 Gains from the SNP
    3 Gains from the Lib Dems
    1 Gain from Plaid
    80 Gains from Labour.
    Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
    As of right now ?

    Orkney
    Ceredigion
    Leeds North West
    Sheffield, Hallam


    Westmorland marginal.
    Cambridge marginal.
    That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.

    Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.

    Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.

    Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited May 2017
    Deleted
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/864868201435459584

    How many elections can Sinn Féin fight in one year?
    So they have a realistic shot at tea chuck ?
    It's unlikely that a SF member will become leader of FG. Chance of GE in Ireland low.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    CommanderShepard said:

    Labour have two hopes, no and Bob. Bob is dead.

    I thought he just got locked out of his Vanilla account?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Mr. 1000, d'you mean Richmond Park?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Jon Craig hammering wobbly Wednesday for all its worth on Sky. He's enjoying himself
  • CommanderShepardCommanderShepard Posts: 135
    Black_Rook said:

    CommanderShepard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    If the Conservatives poll 48% or so, as the polls are currently suggesting, they will make large numbers of gains. Those extra votes have to go somewhere.

    Given some of the polling we have seen, they are pilling up votes where they need too. Labour on the other hand is pilling up votes where it doesn't. I still think it will be 70 gains or so for a hundred seat majority for Team TM
    Sorry to be a pedant, but unless you're thinking that the Tories are going to make a huge number of gains from Labour but somehow lose several dozen seats back to the Lib Dems, then 70 gains doesn't equal a 100 seat majority.

    If the Conservatives make a net 70 gains then they'd have a majority of about 150.
    Be a pedant by all means. I had my maths wrong. However I don't believe the Tories will make many gains in Scotland, but will take many seats of labour.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.

    This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
    Quite the reverse. Firstly, the Labour politicians in Aberdeen were willing to get into bed with the Tories. Secondly, just because SLAB HQ has thrown a tantrum it doesn't mean that ordinary voters need take any notice. Thirdly, the risk for Labour has to be that the Aberdonian councillors react by setting up a rival outfit, which - if it weakens Labour in the area - may encourage more Labour voters to give up on the party and back an alternative Unionist candidate.

    Finally, Labour councillors elsewhere have done deals with the SNP without facing this sort of reaction. If the impression that SLAB is just a pimple on the SNP's backside starts to gain credence, then any remaining Labour voters who are anti-independence are liable to walk away and seek an alternative.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Black_Rook said:

    calum said:

    https://twitter.com/camusson/status/864879189219999744

    If Twitter is correct, Labour have formed a joint administration with the SNP in Fife. No sign of their councillors there being suspended. If SLAB is prepared to actively take sides with the Nationalists in this way, then you really have to wonder (if you haven't already done so) what point there is to its continuing existence?
    Black_Rook said:

    calum said:

    https://twitter.com/camusson/status/864879189219999744

    If Twitter is correct, Labour have formed a joint administration with the SNP in Fife. No sign of their councillors there being suspended. If SLAB is prepared to actively take sides with the Nationalists in this way, then you really have to wonder (if you haven't already done so) what point there is to its continuing existence?
    Tories are not giving assurances on no compulsory redundancies for council workers.
    In Fife that problem does not exist.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    It is actually astounding that given they are standing still on 2015, and the Tories surging, the LDs might even possibly hold 8 seats and not go any further backwards (excluding the by-election surprise) due to some reasonable prospects of 3 seats in Scotland.

    I'm downgrading them to be lucky to get to 8 seats, as they seem certain to lose 3-4 of their current seats, and gains will be tough if the Tories are surging and Labour holding pretty firm.

    They are a stubborn lot, who came back from the dead once, but do they have to will to do so again? I'm sure they thought, yes, but if they make no progress or even go backwards at this GE? Just give up, hope Labour split and join a new group. En march and all that.
  • CommanderShepardCommanderShepard Posts: 135
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.

    I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like

    8 Gains from the SNP
    3 Gains from the Lib Dems
    1 Gain from Plaid
    80 Gains from Labour.
    Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
    As of right now ?

    Orkney
    Ceredigion
    Leeds North West
    Sheffield, Hallam


    Westmorland marginal.
    Cambridge marginal.
    That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.

    Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.

    Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.

    Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
    Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,775
    calum said:

    Scotland's newest party - ALAB !

    https://twitter.com/AberdeenLabour/status/864855275454517254

    So the split has already started, merely by reaching a local deal with SConservatives. After the GE, dissenting Labour MPs have only to declare themselves ALabour. If there are enough of them they might even become the official opposition.

    Good evening, everybody.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,020
    People often forget the Tories lost 10 seats in 1983, offset by 47 gains.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Can anyone explain the logic behind Kezia's latest suicide pact?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.

    This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
    It is a spectacular move. No one can fail to question Dugdale's principles or decisiveness.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrTCHarris: To be fair to the SNP, they would never countenance relying on Tory votes to govern, either at local or Scottish level.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/864859001137377280
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:

    It is a spectacular move. No one can fail to question Dugdale's principles or decisiveness.

    Dugdale's principles? She wants to be Nicola's pet instead of Patrick?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @OliverCooper: Suspended for forming a coalition with the Conservatives. Yet more proof that the only vote against the SNP is a vote for the @ScotTories. twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/s…
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    dyedwoolie said:

    Jon Craig hammering wobbly Wednesday for all its worth on Sky. He's enjoying himself

    These wobbles always happen on a Wednesday, have you noticed? Its all a load of Bull Shit!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,091
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.

    I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like

    8 Gains from the SNP
    3 Gains from the Lib Dems
    1 Gain from Plaid
    80 Gains from Labour.
    Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
    As of right now ?

    Orkney
    Ceredigion
    Leeds North West
    Sheffield, Hallam


    Westmorland marginal.
    Cambridge marginal.
    That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.

    Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.

    Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.

    Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
    Ceredigion could be close between LD and Plaid. All the students from Aber and Lampeter will be back home before the election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,020
    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.

    This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
    It is a spectacular move. No one can fail to question Dugdale's principles or decisiveness.
    Please explain your workings to a posh boy English Tory.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.

    This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
    It is a spectacular move. No one can fail to question Dugdale's principles or decisiveness.
    Please explain your workings to a posh boy English Tory.
    I don't know if it is a good move but it is certainly spectacular.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.

    This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
    Renfrewshire East:

    SNP: 41%
    Lab: 34%
    Con: 22%

    Edinburgh North & Leith:
    SNP: 41
    Lab: 32
    Con: 16

    East Lothian:
    SNP: 43
    Lab: 31
    Con: 20

    Aberdeen South
    SNP: 42
    Lab 27
    Con 23

    SLAB - snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.....
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    People often forget the Tories lost 10 seats in 1983, offset by 47 gains.

    Lol PB nerdery at its finest.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/864859001137377280
    Shame. Kenny sounds seek.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @OliverCooper: Suspended for forming a coalition with the Conservatives. Yet more proof that the only vote against the SNP is a vote for the @ScotTories. twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/s…

    What, no tweet yet from Ruthie ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    Rugby playing Tory activist saves knife attack victim while delivering leaflets in Tooting
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/tooting-stabbing-rugby-coach-rushes-to-help-stab-victim-while-out-canvassing-for-election-a3541406.html?amp
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,020
    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.

    This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
    It is a spectacular move. No one can fail to question Dugdale's principles or decisiveness.
    Please explain your workings to a posh boy English Tory.
    I don't know if it is a good move but it is certainly spectacular.
    I'm waiting for what Ruth Davidson's response to it.

    That will be spectacular.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, d'you mean Richmond Park?

    Yes
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I wouldn't normally comment on a politician's clothing, but I do like these shoes.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    For those wanting to back up their LD seats predictions the latest spreads look good value

    On SportingIndex SELL 14 BUY 17
    http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british?tpid=6441&btag=a_7b_95c_ … … … … … …
    On Spreadex SELL 14.5 BUY 17.5
    https://spreadex.com?tid=356759spreadex.com/?tid=356759spreadex.com/?tid=356759spr … … …
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    CommanderShepard said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.

    I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like

    8 Gains from the SNP
    3 Gains from the Lib Dems
    1 Gain from Plaid
    80 Gains from Labour.
    Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
    As of right now ?

    Orkney
    Ceredigion
    Leeds North West
    Sheffield, Hallam


    Westmorland marginal.
    Cambridge marginal.
    That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.

    Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.

    Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.

    Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
    Drove through Leeds North West today and in Headingley and Otley the only posters/placards are for Greg Mulholland. Then again, there was only about 8 of them.
    The only posters I've seen in Hampstead have been for the LibDems. And I'm fairly sure they're not going to win here.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SimonStClare said:

    What, no tweet yet from Ruthie ?

    Unnecessary.

    Every single Scottish journo in my timeline is pointing out that Ruth is currently unwrapping the present Kezia has just hand delivered, with exquisite timing
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    I think Mrs May is continuing her predecessor's run of good luck. On a day where the relationship between the PM and Chancellor is under the microscope, the US Presidency appears to be crumbling. A slow news day it is not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.

    This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
    Renfrewshire East:

    SNP: 41%
    Lab: 34%
    Con: 22%

    Edinburgh North & Leith:
    SNP: 41
    Lab: 32
    Con: 16

    East Lothian:
    SNP: 43
    Lab: 31
    Con: 20

    Aberdeen South
    SNP: 42
    Lab 27
    Con 23

    SLAB - snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.....
    While this won't change the SNP numbers it may see some more movement from SLAB to SCON in Aberdeenshire especially
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Scottish Labour has suspended all nine members of the party's group in Aberdeen "for breaching party rules" over council coalition deal.

    This doesn't bode well for tactical Unionist voting on June 8th does it?
    Probably not. Hopeful unionists are expecting a great deal from the scots, but there are several barriers. First, they have to even be amendable to doing so in large numbers, and while that might be the case, it won't be universal. Second, there is already uncertainty in some areas like East Renfrewshire which unionist party has the best chance, because of the third issue, which is as none of them are standing down for the others, there is no pact in place, you were already relying on the public independently deciding in enough numbers to make significant gains, to vote tactically even as the parties don't officially endorse the idea.

    That partisanship cannot be set aside even for local government arrangements, which for a system with such proportionality seems crazy, does not bode well at all. If the recent uptick in SNP subsample scores is reflected in reality (rather than subsample reality), then I'm feeling pretty confident about my SNP 50+ bet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    Straw poll: How many seats are people expecting the tories to GAIN realisticly? I'm thinking it will be something like: 75-85 gains. I think Labour are being overestimated again.

    I think you're in the right ballpark there. Tories will gain from ALL other parties I expect though - not just Labour so could well be something like

    8 Gains from the SNP
    3 Gains from the Lib Dems
    1 Gain from Plaid
    80 Gains from Labour.
    Which of the four LD - Con marginals do you expect to remain in LD hands? Or are you reckoning they win Twickenham to bring it back to three net.
    As of right now ?

    Orkney
    Ceredigion
    Leeds North West
    Sheffield, Hallam


    Westmorland marginal.
    Cambridge marginal.
    That's four losses to the Conservatives if you include Richmond Upon Thames.

    Orkney & Shetland is as near a certainty as you're going to get, with a big swing to the LDs last year at Holyrood.

    Ceredgion could be lost, you know. Not likely, but by no means impossible.

    Both Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are vulnerable if the Labour Party really is polling 33% and the LDs 7%.
    Ceredigion could be close between LD and Plaid. All the students from Aber and Lampeter will be back home before the election.
    They'll have arranged postal votes :)
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Sandpit said:

    nunu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Trouble in Bradford?
    http://archbishopcranmer.com/christian-parliamentary-candidate-bradford-excluded-muslim-election-hustings/
    George Grant is the Conservative Party’s parliamentary candidate in Bradford West. He also happens to be a Christian, and is thereby excluded from Bradford’s Muslim Women’s Council General Election hustings, which appears to be restricted to Muslim candidates

    "Bana Gora, chief executive of the Muslim Women's Council, said: “The women of Bradford West have requested the opportunity to engage with these two candidates on what real, tangible policies they will implement in Bradford, should they be elected to office."

    Did she ask every single woman in Bradford West ? Really hate it when so called "community leaders" purport to be speaking for whole groups of people.
    Indeed, sadly the worst aspects of subcontinental politics making their way over to the UK. I recall from 2015 a number of gender segregated meetings in places like Bradford too, not good.

    Even worse, there will likely be sermons from the various imams on the Friday before the election, reminding their people who they should be voting for, along with 'representatives' at the polling stations to make sure they do.
    I believe it's called Biradari politics - another joy that we mainly have Labour to thank for encouraging: their loathsome, hypocritical pols preach equality and touchy-feely virtues all the time, yet regularly attend gender segregated rallies like this one: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11581329/Senior-Labour-politicians-Liam-Byrne-and-Tom-Watson-attend-segregated-Muslim-rally.html

    Expect a lot more of this sort of nonsense in the years ahead. The more that Labour moves to embrace the Far Left foreign policy agenda, and the more that it is forced back into the inner cities, the more it will fall under the influence of the less progressive inclinations of certain cultural minorities.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,020
    MikeSmithson said:

    For those wanting to back up their LD seats predictions the latest spreads look good value

    On SportingIndex SELL 14 BUY 17
    http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british?tpid=6441&btag=a_7b_95c_ … … … … … …
    On Spreadex SELL 14.5 BUY 17.5
    https://spreadex.com?tid=356759spreadex.com/?tid=356759spreadex.com/?tid=356759spr … … …

    I sold the Lib Dems in the early 20s.

    I hope you and all PBers followed my advice to buy the Tories at 378?

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
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