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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Philip Hammond looks as though he’s for the chop following the

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  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    edited May 2017

    He threw out most of Militant but he left behind people like Corbyn who should have been thrown out with them. If you remove a cancer you have to remove all of it or it comes back with a vengeance and that's what has happened now.
    They tolerated Corbyn on the distant back benches in order to prove that the left had been marginalised. Their ultimate tactic was to put him on the leadership ballot, just to ram the point home. "We'll show the people what sort of party we really are."
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508

    I was somewhat underwhelmed by that. There's a lot that's been covered in other places (for example, Jared Diamond) and a lot that's really sensible.

    I guess, the point is that its sensible once you've had it explained carefully.

    But, yeah, underwhelmed.
    I would agree about Jared Diamond - his is the go-to book about how geography affects everything, although I did think Tim Marshall was well written and accessible. Publishers continue to repackage old ideas with a new spin - the latest causing everyone to swoon is 'Scale' by Geoffrey West. Great writing, but really nothing blistering new since 'On Being the Right Size' by JBS Haldane, only with a bit of updating for modern cities and corporations.

    David Landes 'The Wealth and Poverty of Nations' is a good read if you like your books to be a bit more demanding ('Thinking Fast and Slow' falls into this category as well).
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    nunu said:

    I agree. Although most of us on PB think the Tories will get a large 100 seat majority but we keep saying"I just can't see that particular seat falling" some of us have to be wrong........
    One assumes that for rough guidance this list is OK
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/
    except that some in London might just hang on and some in B'ham, Wolverhampton and Coventry outside the first 40 might fall if they really dislike J.C.
  • kle4 said:

    Could be - they have already perhaps had that comeback, given their pick up in the polls, but I did predict there'd be a poll with Labour within 10 at some point. Possible a manifesto boost.

    But of course poll rampers go nuts over any detail in a poll, and we fall for it every time.
    Last IPSOS was, I think, 3 weeks ago and had Labour at 26 and LDs at 13 so perfectly possible Labour are up +6/7 given other companies who poll more frequently. More interesting would be if Tories are below 45 and Labour 35+ as that would be a break with the past 2 weeks and might persuade CCHQ that they need to change strategy.

    Or, as others say, they could be 50+!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    If Farron decides to step aside and Jo Swinson gains East Dumbartonshire then she could be in with a good chance.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,430

    NEW THREAD

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread - the return of Marf
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,150

    Does Carmicheal actually represent any strand or idea at all within the Lib Dems though? Maybe I'm wrong, but he seems to just sort of be 'there' because Orkney/Shetland always votes liberal. I can see supporters mobilising to elect Clegg again, and both Farron and Lamb offered distinct pathways post 2015, but Carmichael? I struggle to see him being leader unless he is literally the last MP (or if it is just him and Farron and Farron resigns). Even then I could see a non-MP throwing their hat in the ring at that point, a popular peer or former MP.
    There was a survey a few years ago which analysed LD MPs positions on a range of issues. Alistair Carmichael came out as the most left wing.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    One assumes that for rough guidance this list is OK
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/
    except that some in London might just hang on and some in B'ham, Wolverhampton and Coventry outside the first 40 might fall if they really dislike J.C.
    Good list on the whole, though it only goes to number 75, I can see tories winning a few above that but missing out on some of the London seats that are in the top 20.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    nunu said:

    Good list on the whole, though it only goes to number 75, I can see tories winning a few above that but missing out on some of the London seats that are in the top 20.
    I think they will gain about 80 seats net.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Chris Hanratty (UEA Election Forecast) reckons Norfolk will go completely blue. Norman Lamb 100% lose and Clive Lewis (Norwich South) 66% lose.

    I still think Lewis will hang on, big Green and Lib Dem vote to feed off plus very popular in the City.

    Is Lewis citing this Hanratty analysis in his election collateral?
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