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One of Chris from Paris's 2 tips for PM has come in:
https://twitter.com/yannikouts/status/8641016204974940160 -
She would see her herself as being her own woman: socially liberal on some things (as you describe above) and socially conservative on others, such as immigration and the family.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's a socially liberal conservative, just look at her introducing same sex marriage or changes on stop and search.Casino_Royale said:
FWIW, I think May is still a Conservative, and believes in a low-tax economy.TheScreamingEagles said:
I suspect after the election quite a few Tory loonies will link Mrs May's changes on stop and search to the increased knife crime in London.The_Apocalypse said:Also, anything that upsets the Conservative Right makes me very happy indeed. Their ideas of what Britain should be like should stay on the backbenches.
Given Labour's current unelectability, and the idiocy of the membership regarding Corbyn, I don't see where the Conservative Right goes if they really dislike May's policies especially with a significant Tory majority she'll have - she clearly expects that to give her more room to do what she wants.
Given May's attitude towards the police while Home Secretary, her recent policies don't actually surprise me too much.
But, I think her emphasis is different and she will focus those tax cuts on low/low-middle earners, not higher earners, and shift the balance of public spending away from pensioners, and towards struggling workers/families trying to afford a home, childcare or other bills.
In other words, people in their 30s-40s, not those aged 55+, and people earning 15-35k, not those earning 50-80k.
But elsewhere I have my doubts on her broader conservativism.
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C2 is also quite Kippy so this shouldn't be a surprise.Pulpstar said:
That C2 figure is through the roof.Mortimer said:
I've been positing this theory for weeks. It is truly the only explanation that fits with:Lord_Liverpool said:Guardian write up on ICM Poll says Conservative Lead in the Top 50 Labour Marginals is now 20% (52-32) vs. 10% last week (48-38). Even allowing for MOE this would fit a narrative that Labour's 30% buoyancy may be driven more by solid voters in safe seats as opposed to the marginals.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/15/are-tories-workers-party-labour-polling-figures-suggest-they-are
- my experience of talking to voters
- the heading VI and regional subsamples
- the comments from Labour MPs
and, of course, my desire for a decent Tory majority
Which is the most C2 Labour seat in England ?
http://www.gbmaps.info/social-class-maps/c2.html
Not by constituency, but you can see C2 largely maps places UKIP did well at the last GE.0 -
Commenting
Obviously this will be the next thread :-DLord_Liverpool said:Guardian write up on ICM Poll says Conservative Lead in the Top 50 Labour Marginals is now 20% (52-32) vs. 10% last week (48-38). Even allowing for MOE this would fit a narrative that Labour's 30% buoyancy may be driven more by solid voters in safe seats as opposed to the marginals.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/15/are-tories-workers-party-labour-polling-figures-suggest-they-are0 -
surbiton said:
That is what I was expecting. Labour will get hammered here. Is this similar to the poll in Wales ?Scott_P said:
Edit: I plugged these figures into my simulation [ which previously had "national" figures" ].
Prior: C 41, Lab 18.
Now: C44, Lab 15.
Note improvement in LD figures. Labour should target those.0 -
Mr. Llama, well, the medieval era did cover quite a few centuries and things did change over that period.
Also, bread and cheese were the staples of peasant diets. I'm not saying in many places fish wasn't eaten, just that it wasn't the case that fish was eaten as often as cheese/bread.
Agree entirely ale was the order of the day, but I didn't really go into drinks at all.0 -
On a six pollster average (don't knows and undecideds still in the 100%):Lord_Liverpool said:Guardian write up on ICM Poll says Conservative Lead in the Top 50 Labour Marginals is now 20% (52-32) vs. 10% last week (48-38). Even allowing for MOE this would fit a narrative that Labour's 30% buoyancy may be driven more by solid voters in safe seats as opposed to the marginals.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/15/are-tories-workers-party-labour-polling-figures-suggest-they-are
Labour are picking up 12% Libs, 7% Kippers and 4% Tories
Tories are picking up 42% Kippers. 19% Libs, 10% Labour
Greens/Plaids look like 20% transfers to Lab.
It does indeed suggest that Labour are gaining votes where they are largely useless and losing them where they matter.0 -
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
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A Prime Minister with a beard - whatever next!williamglenn said:One of Chris from Paris's 2 tips for PM has come in:
https://twitter.com/yannikouts/status/8641016204974940160 -
Bish, Darlo, Poolies, Smoggie South & East Cleveland and mebbies some more. All going Blue. For feck's sake.Scott_P said:0 -
A couple of the sketches rank in my all time favs (The Scottish Hotelier's riddle, Fat Fighers "Dust") but other parts I found quite gross and unfunny, in particular the character of Ann, the Nan fancier and "Bitty"dyedwoolie said:
LB was utter guff tbfisam said:
Even in this century we had Little Britain, which played heavily on racial stereotypes. I am sure Walliams and Lucas would defend themselves by saying they were being ironic, but so did the makers of Mind Your Language and Til Death Do Us Part.dyedwoolie said:
I worked in Ireland in 2007 and was astonished to find they had an up to date version of Mind Your Language showing weekly. It felt like time warping to 1980 but with leprechauns.isam said:
25 or thereabouts cover 41?TOPPING said:
25 years ago (or thereabouts) you could watch Love Thy Neighbour on the tellybox. Attitudes change and my belief is that in the vast majority of cases today in the UK, race isn't taken into account when hiring or paying people.foxinsoxuk said:
It is why we need diversity officers. The government lays down rules and someone has the responsibility for following and monitoring them.TOPPING said:
Right everyone, we need to work out which racial group you are in to be able to submit our government return.TheScreamingEagles said:
Will all Jews please go and stand in the corner over there, all blacks there, South Asians over there....
25 years ago the NHS was quite dodgy on equal opportunities, but those days are gone. The exception is higher management, who are disproportionately white British.
(Unless they are Polish plumbers vs locals.)
7 series though, shows it was popular in its time
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love_Thy_Neighbour
Poles aren't a different race
Actually I find the most distasteful character in Little Britain to be Ann the mentally ill patient. How did they get away with that?0 -
Note ICM controls for political interest...DanSmith said:0 -
"Today, I have been mostly eating strong & stable food"Casino_Royale said:
I just found the humour of Little Britain immature.bobajobPB said:
Not allowed to talk to Isam but not a partisan point. He's absolutely right. Little Britain was pretty awful and the mentally ill character was just beyond the pale. I find Walliams and Lucas waspish to the point of being misanthropic.isam said:
Even in this century we had Little Britain, which played heavily on racial stereotypes. I am sure Walliams and Lucas would defend themselves by saying they were being ironic, but so did the makers of Mind Your Language and Til Death Do Us Part.dyedwoolie said:
I worked in Ireland in 2007 and was astonished to find they had an up to date version of Mind Your Language showing weekly. It felt like time warping to 1980 but with leprechauns.isam said:
25 or thereabouts cover 41?TOPPING said:
25 years ago (or thereabouts) you could watch Love Thy Neighbour on the tellybox. Attitudes change and my belief is that in the vast majority of cases today in the UK, race isn't taken into account when hiring or paying people.foxinsoxuk said:
It is why we need diversity officers. The government lays down rules and someone has the responsibility for following and monitoring them.TOPPING said:
Right everyone, we need to work out which racial group you are in to be able to submit our government return.TheScreamingEagles said:
Will all Jews please go and stand in the corner over there, all blacks there, South Asians over there....
25 years ago the NHS was quite dodgy on equal opportunities, but those days are gone. The exception is higher management, who are disproportionately white British.
(Unless they are Polish plumbers vs locals.)
7 series though, shows it was popular in its time
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love_Thy_Neighbour
Poles aren't a different race
Actually I find the most distasteful character in Little Britain to be Ann the mentally ill patient. How did they get away with that?
The Fast Show had some funny scenes, but was very repetitive, which was supposedly part of the joke, but I found slightly lazy. Catherine Tate was similar.
Both to some extent leveraged Theresa May's strong and stable, in that if you repeat a character and its catchphrase often enough, it eventually enters the national cultural lexicon.
"Being strong & stable is very much like making love to a beautiful woman"
"I'd better be going to the bottom field sir, to sort out the drainage and make it strong and stable."0 -
Thank you for voting for Corbyn as leader in 2015.SandyRentool said:
Bish, Darlo, Poolies, Smoggie South & East Cleveland and mebbies some more. All going Blue. For feck's sake.Scott_P said:0 -
Those voting figures for the North East are stunning.0
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Labour loses 3 more seats in the North East compared to "national" swings:
Hartlepool, Sedgefield, Tynemouth.
Prior: Lab 23, Con 6
Now: Lab 20, Con 9
VI
2017 / 2015 : C 25 / 40, Lab 47 / 42, LD 7 / 6 , UKIP 17 /80 -
Vote efficiency premium shot to pieces. Only London sees an area of many Labour seats generally holding off the surge. This could be a bloodbath.DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.0 -
I saw that on Twitter early this morning and wondered when someone was going to mention it on here. Strangely for a site where the sub-questions of a poll are quickly flagged up, nobody until now has. I wonder why.SeanT said:Two thirds of Brits are now Brexiteers
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/two-thirds-voters-now-support-brexit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
Mr. Rentool, and then, I won a 170 seat majority, and ushered in a thousand year reign of Conservative dominance.
Which was nice.0 -
In fact the last ICM had an initial sample of 545 "very interested", weighted down to 291 based on the BES.brokenwheel said:
Note ICM controls for political interest...DanSmith said:0 -
May has had her Gillian Duffy moment and managed not to call the lady in question a bigot or denigrate her in any other way. Gordon Brown, your team took one hell of a beating.0
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North West:
National swing: C 30, Lab 44, LD 1
Regional swing: C 34, Lab 40, LD 10 -
Even London isn't too bad for the Tories to be perfectly honest. There are some seats that need very low swings from Labour there (Ilford North, Brentford & Isleworth, Ealing, Hampstead) and also some potentially deeper but more kippery fruit in the east (Dagenham).dyedwoolie said:
Vote efficiency premium shot to pieces. Only London sees an area of many Labour seats generally holding off the surge. This could be a bloodbath.DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.0 -
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke.SeanT said:
Labour on 120-150 seats?DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
We live in interesting times.0 -
Lol - no you don't.HurstLlama said:
I saw that on Twitter early this morning and wondered when someone was going to mention it on here. Strangely for a site where the sub-questions of a poll are quickly flagged up, nobody until now has. I wonder why.SeanT said:Two thirds of Brits are now Brexiteers
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/two-thirds-voters-now-support-brexit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
But not in 2016!TheScreamingEagles said:
Thank you for voting for Corbyn as leader in 2015.SandyRentool said:
Bish, Darlo, Poolies, Smoggie South & East Cleveland and mebbies some more. All going Blue. For feck's sake.Scott_P said:0 -
I think Labour are going to be imitating Unlucky Alf.SandyRentool said:
"Today, I have been mostly eating strong & stable food"
"Being strong & stable is very much like making love to a beautiful woman"
"I'd better be going to the bottom field sir, to sort out the drainage and make it strong and stable."
"Aw.....Bugger........."
EDIT: This seems very apposite for how Labour are being treated -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gC1CdHQXiVU0 -
Tories within a 1% swing of catching up to Labour in the North East! That's unbelievable. Labour lead down from 22% in 2015 to 2% now.DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
If YouGov is overestimate Labour then the Tories could be ahead in the North East. I can't wrap my head around that, but then they did win the Tees Valley Mayoralty ...0 -
I'd have thought outer London would be precisely the sort of place where people could just about manage voting for Miliband, but certainly not Corbyn.
In fact that's probably just about the whole of the UK to be honest.0 -
Astonishing to think that somewhere like Sunderland Central is targettable on these figures.0
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but but butSeanT said:
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUEdyedwoolie said:
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke.SeanT said:
Labour on 120-150 seats?DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
We live in interesting times.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-labour
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
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First good news:
Yorks and Humber:
National swing: C 23, Lab 29, LD 2
Regional swing: C 23, Lab 29, LD 2
No change !!!!!!!!!!!!0 -
I think Labour will hold it. By how much will indicate the scale of the unfolding disaster.dyedwoolie said:Astonishing to think that somewhere like Sunderland Central is targettable on these figures.
If it has dropped, well all bets are off at that point.0 -
There is no doubt Labour are heading for a bloodbath. Only the scale of the massacre is to be determined.dyedwoolie said:
Vote efficiency premium shot to pieces. Only London sees an area of many Labour seats generally holding off the surge. This could be a bloodbath.DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.0 -
As it stands I can't see him getting over 150, the next three weeks are going to be brutalSeanT said:
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUEdyedwoolie said:
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke.SeanT said:
Labour on 120-150 seats?DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
We live in interesting times.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-labour0 -
On the contrary, some very long-odds bets would be on!Pulpstar said:
I think Labour will hold it. By how much will indicate the scale of the unfolding disaster.dyedwoolie said:Astonishing to think that somewhere like Sunderland Central is targettable on these figures.
If it has dropped, well all bets are off at that point.0 -
If it drops then sub 100 is ONPulpstar said:
I think Labour will hold it. By how much will indicate the scale of the unfolding disaster.dyedwoolie said:Astonishing to think that somewhere like Sunderland Central is targettable on these figures.
If it has dropped, well all bets are off at that point.0 -
If YG figures are correct, how can Labour match Ed M's vote share percentage?dyedwoolie said:
As it stands I can't see him getting over 150, the next three weeks are going to be brutalSeanT said:
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUEdyedwoolie said:
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke.SeanT said:
Labour on 120-150 seats?DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
We live in interesting times.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-labour0 -
Everyone's a Tory now, canny lad....Philip_Thompson said:
Tories within a 1% swing of catching up to Labour in the North East! That's unbelievable. Labour lead down from 22% in 2015 to 2% now.DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
If YouGov is overestimate Labour then the Tories could be ahead in the North East. I can't wrap my head around that, but then they did win the Tees Valley Mayoralty ...0 -
Richard_Nabavi said:
On the contrary, some very long-odds bets would be on!Pulpstar said:
I think Labour will hold it. By how much will indicate the scale of the unfolding disaster.dyedwoolie said:Astonishing to think that somewhere like Sunderland Central is targettable on these figures.
If it has dropped, well all bets are off at that point.
Not even SeanT would have the words to describe that moment!!!!
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Somewhat like escaping responsibility for giving the Labour party the pox because you applied a beauty spot to the scare a year later.SandyRentool said:
But not in 2016!TheScreamingEagles said:
Thank you for voting for Corbyn as leader in 2015.SandyRentool said:
Bish, Darlo, Poolies, Smoggie South & East Cleveland and mebbies some more. All going Blue. For feck's sake.Scott_P said:0 -
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Well I guess Labour are just about the only 'not Tory' vote in town outside Scotland. With the pathetic shares forecast for kippers, libs and Greens they HAVE to get high 20s to 30 or it will be a 250 majority.The_Apocalypse said:
If YG figures are correct, how can Labour match Ed M's vote share percentage?dyedwoolie said:
As it stands I can't see him getting over 150, the next three weeks are going to be brutalSeanT said:
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUEdyedwoolie said:
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke.SeanT said:
Labour on 120-150 seats?DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
We live in interesting times.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-labour0 -
Howay, manMarqueeMark said:Everyone's a Tory now, canny lad....
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Rats don't desert TO a sinking ship.Recidivist said:
More likely to sit quietly and wait for it to all go wrong and then do a Corbyn.Stark_Dawning said:
Theresa is rapidly becoming the Tories' female Tony Blair:TheScreamingEagles said:
'I have taken from my party everything they thought they believed in, I have stripped them of their core beliefs. What keeps them together is success and power'
How much longer will the Tory Right be able to stomach this sort of thing? Surely someone will break ranks soon and noisily defect to UKIP.0 -
Sandy, even in 2015 it was obvious that Jeremy is a proper Doyle.SandyRentool said:
But not in 2016!TheScreamingEagles said:
Thank you for voting for Corbyn as leader in 2015.SandyRentool said:
Bish, Darlo, Poolies, Smoggie South & East Cleveland and mebbies some more. All going Blue. For feck's sake.Scott_P said:0 -
Matters would be almost terminal if the Beast of Bolsover loses his seat.Richard_Nabavi said:
On the contrary, some very long-odds bets would be on!Pulpstar said:
I think Labour will hold it. By how much will indicate the scale of the unfolding disaster.dyedwoolie said:Astonishing to think that somewhere like Sunderland Central is targettable on these figures.
If it has dropped, well all bets are off at that point.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolsover_(UK_Parliament_constituency)0 -
Mr. Rabbit, you might want to cast your mind back a few weeks when the talk on here was whether it was possible that Labour could go below 200 seats.TheWhiteRabbit said:
but but butSeanT said:
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUEdyedwoolie said:
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke.SeanT said:
Labour on 120-150 seats?DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
We live in interesting times.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-labour
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
For myself I am still struggling to match the polling VI numbers with the seat predictions on here. The Lib Dems polling 8% or so will get 10+ seats (20 to 55 if you listen to Roger) but Labour on about 30% will lose seats in big numbers.0 -
I prefer Tory majority 300+ which I'm on at 100-1SeanT said:
You can get 12/1 against Labour going under 100 seats...JackW said:
There is no doubt Labour are heading for a bloodbath. Only the scale of the massacre is to be determined.dyedwoolie said:
Vote efficiency premium shot to pieces. Only London sees an area of many Labour seats generally holding off the surge. This could be a bloodbath.DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
NI 18, Green 1, Lib Dem 8, SNP 45, Speaker 1, Plaid 2 adds through.0 -
EN&L is my seat, but I've not been here long enough to know it. The Tories are the only people I have received a general election leaflet from thus far, talking up their chances on the basis of the local election results.surbiton said:Labour will win Ed South. The question is Ed North and Leigh. And, East Lothian.
If you go to the Ashcroft survey more voters in Ed North and Leigh want JC as PM than TM. Not a usual result.
If you take the local election results as any sort of guide, Labour are far more likely to finish fourth than first in this seat. The local election results were consistent with the opinion polls that show the Conservatives advancing as Labour retreat.
Why should Edinburgh North and Leith be any different?0 -
It does look as though those who enjoy "Terrible night for the Tories" GEs will be looking forward to the one after this.dyedwoolie said:
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke.SeanT said:
Labour on 120-150 seats?DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
We live in interesting times.
Good afternoon, everyone.0 -
I fear source material for your pies is going be rather hard to come by, Jack....JackW said:
There is no doubt Labour are heading for a bloodbath. Only the scale of the massacre is to be determined.dyedwoolie said:
Vote efficiency premium shot to pieces. Only London sees an area of many Labour seats generally holding off the surge. This could be a bloodbath.DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.0 -
I think the idea of Labour taking Edinburgh North & Leith, but not capturing East Lothian is frankly laughable.OblitusSumMe said:
EN&L is my seat, but I've not been here long enough to know it. The Tories are the only people I have received a general election leaflet from thus far, talking up their chances on the basis of the local election results.surbiton said:Labour will win Ed South. The question is Ed North and Leigh. And, East Lothian.
If you go to the Ashcroft survey more voters in Ed North and Leigh want JC as PM than TM. Not a usual result.
If you take the local election results as any sort of guide, Labour are far more likely to finish fourth than first in this seat. The local election results were consistent with the opinion polls that show the Conservatives advancing as Labour retreat.
Why should Edinburgh North and Leith be any different?
I'm on East Lothian at 10-1, I'm expecting the seat to stay SNP mind.0 -
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East Midlands:
National swing: C 34, Lab 12
Regional swing: C 35, Lab 11
Mansfield goes Tory !
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Should I tear up those 10/1 betting slips which has Labour polling sub 20%?0
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If this is right it would certainly fit in with her plans for grammar schools in less affluent areas. It would certainly be nice to see young working families on average salaries get some reward. The last 10 years haven't been a bed of roses.Casino_Royale said:
FWIW, I think May is still a Conservative, and believes in a low-tax economy.TheScreamingEagles said:
I suspect after the election quite a few Tory loonies will link Mrs May's changes on stop and search to the increased knife crime in London.The_Apocalypse said:Also, anything that upsets the Conservative Right makes me very happy indeed. Their ideas of what Britain should be like should stay on the backbenches.
Given Labour's current unelectability, and the idiocy of the membership regarding Corbyn, I don't see where the Conservative Right goes if they really dislike May's policies especially with a significant Tory majority she'll have - she clearly expects that to give her more room to do what she wants.
Given May's attitude towards the police while Home Secretary, her recent policies don't actually surprise me too much.
But, I think her emphasis is different and she will focus those tax cuts on low/low-middle earners, not higher earners, and shift the balance of public spending away from pensioners, and towards struggling workers/families trying to afford a home, childcare or other bills.
In other words, people in their 30s-40s, not those aged 55+, and people earning 15-35k, not those earning 50-80k.
Good luck to her if she makes it work. I rather suspect that we'll end up chucking money at the baby boomers and people who aren't working,and with the new schools in middle class market towns as usual but it's nice to dream.
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... in Bootle. But nowhere else.Scott_P said:0 -
Under 100 Labour seats would be the Labour party in the political mortuary.SeanT said:
You can get 12/1 against Labour going under 100 seats...JackW said:
There is no doubt Labour are heading for a bloodbath. Only the scale of the massacre is to be determined.dyedwoolie said:
Vote efficiency premium shot to pieces. Only London sees an area of many Labour seats generally holding off the surge. This could be a bloodbath.DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
However despite the Jezza death cult it's difficult to see Labour under 120 let alone 100. Some seats are resistant to the charms of the May death stare.0 -
Yes. The Lib Dems aren't doing nearly well enough to make those winners I'm afraid. In fact I've laid some Labour sub 20 at 10-1 myself.TheScreamingEagles said:Should I tear up those 10/1 betting slips which has Labour polling sub 20%?
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has this thread been overtaken by events?rottenborough said:0 -
Latest literature count here in Ceredigion - Lib dems 5, Plaid 1, Others 00
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We will all have to make sacrifices in the coming years ....MarqueeMark said:
I fear source material for your pies is going be rather hard to come by, Jack....JackW said:
There is no doubt Labour are heading for a bloodbath. Only the scale of the massacre is to be determined.dyedwoolie said:
Vote efficiency premium shot to pieces. Only London sees an area of many Labour seats generally holding off the surge. This could be a bloodbath.DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.0 -
Wiltshire Tory kids fall out of sky.
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/864070642945208321/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
Frankly it would require a Lib Dem surge and convincing Labour voters not to bother to get sub 20 now, but crazier bets have come in. Or if a national disgust with Corbyn sets in which would require him to fall apart publicly on an emotive issue,TheScreamingEagles said:Should I tear up those 10/1 betting slips which has Labour polling sub 20%?
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West Midlands
Regional swing: C 44, Lab 15
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But the alternatives were a true-believer Blairite and two wet rags.Freggles said:
Sandy, even in 2015 it was obvious that Jeremy is a proper Doyle.SandyRentool said:
But not in 2016!TheScreamingEagles said:
Thank you for voting for Corbyn as leader in 2015.SandyRentool said:
Bish, Darlo, Poolies, Smoggie South & East Cleveland and mebbies some more. All going Blue. For feck's sake.Scott_P said:0 -
0
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A result I regret and one that will cause us significant damage, but a vote is a vote and has to be respected. I am surprised there are so many people that do not accept that.SeanT said:Two thirds of Brits are now Brexiteers
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/two-thirds-voters-now-support-brexit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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East of England:
National swing: C 54, Lab 4
Regional swing: C 54, Lab 3, LD 1
Cambridge.
One thing I am noticing from these regional polls. The Lib Dems are doing better than previously assumed. Have not resulted in too many extra seats though.
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Edinburgh North & Leith voted 47% Yes, making it by far the largest Yes voting area of Edinburgh.OblitusSumMe said:
EN&L is my seat, but I've not been here long enough to know it. The Tories are the only people I have received a general election leaflet from thus far, talking up their chances on the basis of the local election results.surbiton said:Labour will win Ed South. The question is Ed North and Leigh. And, East Lothian.
If you go to the Ashcroft survey more voters in Ed North and Leigh want JC as PM than TM. Not a usual result.
If you take the local election results as any sort of guide, Labour are far more likely to finish fourth than first in this seat. The local election results were consistent with the opinion polls that show the Conservatives advancing as Labour retreat.
Why should Edinburgh North and Leith be any different?
It's a split personality constituency taking in as it does both the Port of Leith & Fettes collage, Pilton & Stockbridge. I do not see it going Labour.0 -
Pull!logical_song said:Wiltshire Tory kids fall out of sky.
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/864070642945208321/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
But to use your analogy, while there may be Wenger out people who theoretically think that Arsenal getting a beating might have long term benefits, they wouldn't want the beating to come from Tottenham, and they certainly would throw up at the thought of actively cheering Tottenham, regardless of the long term implications.SeanT said:
Consider: the theory doing the rounds is that Labour are holding up because their voters don't want to give TMay a 200 seat majority.TheWhiteRabbit said:
but but butSeanT said:
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUEdyedwoolie said:
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke.SeanT said:
Labour on 120-150 seats?DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
We live in interesting times.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-labour
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
But imagine if you are a decent centre-lefty or a patriotic Labourite like, say, Southam, and you want your party back, and you want the Hard Left, Chavez-hugging, Hamas-loving IRA-honouring Corbynites gone, and gone for ever, after a defeat so bad even Jezbollah can't cling on, and the commies are routed forever. That means, at the very least, not voting Labour, this time.
Meanwhile, TMay is offering lots of rather lefty sounding policies, and doesn't look so bad at all, and if anyone is going to handle Brexit "competently", it will be her, not Jeremy. These are actual reasons to vote FOR the Tories, for any Labourite who dislikes Corbyn.
Labour's own voters are like a bunch of disgruntled football supporters who loathe their manager, and who would rather see the team take a terrible trashing, just this once, so he is forced to quit, than continue the constant trudge to permanent decline.
A perfect electoral storm approaches Labour, they could go below 100. Personally, having thought they'd get 180-200 I now see it more like 150....0 -
Good afternoon, Miss JGP.
Labour under 100 seats is Fourth Crusade territory.0 -
You could not design a leader of a political party to be more repellent to voters in the Midlands than Jeremy Corbyn. The party tried to alienate its voter-base with Ed Miliband and got a fair level of success. But Jeremy takes things to a whole new level. It will be an absolute bloodbath for Labour here.surbiton said:West Midlands
Regional swing: C 44, Lab 150 -
Hardly a surprise given that it's the dullest election in living memory.JonCisBack said:Whilst we all obsess over the details...
NONE of the top 10 most read BBC news stories are related to the general election.
None.0 -
@surbiton My switcher model derived from the latest Yougov tables resulted in a general increase in Lib Dem votes but a devastating effect on seats.
Probably massively inaccurate but gaining a few thousand in the likes of East Ham and Ilford North won't do the Lib Dems any good whatsoever.0 -
Indeed.Pulpstar said:
If, when the voter was told just before going into the booth, "Think about your constituency", it might produce the same difference in real life as in the hypothetical. But normally, they'll be thinking about dinner, Coronation Street, whatever they were doing just before coming in, who they were chatting with on the way in, and be thinking simply about voting rather than specifically about their constituency.
If they specifically haven't made up their mind until the polling booth (which is rare), then you might get a bit of a push in this direction when they see the names on the paper. But normally, they'll have decided beforehand and without being told to think specifically about the local contest.
I'd say there might be a very small push in this direction - but I'd place the outcome to be somewhere between the unadjusted outcome and the "think about your constituency" outcome, and far, far closer to the former than the latter.0 -
Any of whom would have lost fewer seats than the Corbmeister.SandyRentool said:
But the alternatives were a true-believer Blairite and two wet rags.Freggles said:
Sandy, even in 2015 it was obvious that Jeremy is a proper Doyle.SandyRentool said:
But not in 2016!TheScreamingEagles said:
Thank you for voting for Corbyn as leader in 2015.SandyRentool said:
Bish, Darlo, Poolies, Smoggie South & East Cleveland and mebbies some more. All going Blue. For feck's sake.Scott_P said:0 -
London:
Regional swing [ prior ]: C 30, Lab 39, LD 4
Regional swing: C 30, Lab 39, LD 4
It is the same poll , I think.
Bermondsey is LD Majority = 139. I seriously doubt it.
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It's not binary. I don't rate May, I think she is going to disappoint millions and millions of voters over the coming years and I will not vote for her. But there is no way on God's earth I am going to vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.PaulM said:
But to use your analogy, while there may be Wenger out people who theoretically think that Arsenal getting a beating might have long term benefits, they wouldn't want the beating to come from Tottenham, and they certainly would throw up at the thought of actively cheering Tottenham, regardless of the long term implications.SeanT said:
Consider: the theory doing the rounds is that Labour are holding up because their voters don't want to give TMay a 200 seat majority.TheWhiteRabbit said:
but but butSeanT said:
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUEdyedwoolie said:
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke.SeanT said:
Labour on 120-150 seats?DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
We live in interesting times.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-labour
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
But imagine if you are a decent centre-lefty or a patriotic Labourite like, say, Southam, and you want your party back, and you want the Hard Left, Chavez-hugging, Hamas-loving IRA-honouring Corbynites gone, and gone for ever, after a defeat so bad even Jezbollah can't cling on, and the commies are routed forever. That means, at the very least, not voting Labour, this time.
Meanwhile, TMay is offering lots of rather lefty sounding policies, and doesn't look so bad at all, and if anyone is going to handle Brexit "competently", it will be her, not Jeremy. These are actual reasons to vote FOR the Tories, for any Labourite who dislikes Corbyn.
Labour's own voters are like a bunch of disgruntled football supporters who loathe their manager, and who would rather see the team take a terrible trashing, just this once, so he is forced to quit, than continue the constant trudge to permanent decline.
A perfect electoral storm approaches Labour, they could go below 100. Personally, having thought they'd get 180-200 I now see it more like 150....
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And an unnecessary one.bobajobPB said:
Hardly a surprise given that it's the dullest election in living memory.JonCisBack said:Whilst we all obsess over the details...
NONE of the top 10 most read BBC news stories are related to the general election.
None.0 -
You know and I know that the average Gooner wouldn't buy that for a second.SeanT said:
But Tottenham are rebranding as Theresa Hotspurs... and promising to help out with Arsenal's youth programme, grassroots football in Highbury, Etc.PaulM said:
But to use your analogy, while there may be Wenger out people who theoretically think that Arsenal getting a beating might have long term benefits, they wouldn't want the beating to come from Tottenham, and they certainly would throw up at the thought of actively cheering Tottenham, regardless of the long term implications.SeanT said:
Consider: the theory doing the rounds is that Labour are holding up because their voters don't want to give TMay a 200 seat majority.TheWhiteRabbit said:
but but butSeanT said:
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUEdyedwoolie said:
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke.SeanT said:
Labour on 120-150 seats?DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
We live in interesting times.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-labour
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
But imagine if you are a decent centre-lefty or a patriotic Labourite like, say, Southam, and you want your party back, and you want the Hard Left, Chavez-hugging, Hamas-loving IRA-honouring Corbynites gone, and gone for ever, after a defeat so bad even Jezbollah can't cling on, and the commies are routed forever. That means, at the very least, not voting Labour, this time.
Meanwhile, TMay is offering lots of rather lefty sounding policies, and doesn't look so bad at all, and if anyone is going to handle Brexit "competently", it will be her, not Jeremy. These are actual reasons to vote FOR the Tories, for any Labourite who dislikes Corbyn.
Labour's own voters are like a bunch of disgruntled football supporters who loathe their manager, and who would rather see the team take a terrible trashing, just this once, so he is forced to quit, than continue the constant trudge to permanent decline.
A perfect electoral storm approaches Labour, they could go below 100. Personally, having thought they'd get 180-200 I now see it more like 150....0 -
CON gain Norfolk North, LD gain Cambridge?surbiton said:East of England:
National swing: C 54, Lab 4
Regional swing: C 54, Lab 3, LD 1
Cambridge.
One thing I am noticing from these regional polls. The Lib Dems are doing better than previously assumed. Have not resulted in too many extra seats though.0 -
What's a rule of thumb for a recount? How close does it have to be?
If (OK big if, but still) the tories get 80% of UKIP votes from 2015 + a 10% direct Lab/Con swing in the NE, then Houghton and Sunderland South might just go TCTC
That would screw their "first declaration" ambitions and make for a somewhat explosive start to the night....0 -
Some say they already have a president with one.....but I couldn't possibly comment.Icarus said:
A Prime Minister with a beard - whatever next!williamglenn said:One of Chris from Paris's 2 tips for PM has come in:
https://twitter.com/yannikouts/status/8641016204974940160 -
South East:
National swing: C 81, Lab 2, GRN 1
Regional swing: C 81, Lab 2, GRN 1
despite much lower swing to the Tories
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Not going to happen. As mentioned elsewhere in the thread, there will be automatic stabilisers which prevent Lab going too low, mainly the thought that people can vote Lab without any danger of getting a Lab govt.dyedwoolie said:
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke.SeanT said:
Labour on 120-150 seats?DanSmith said:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
This is brutal for Labour.
We live in interesting times.
I did say 60-100 seats is about right although I might move that up a touch now to, say 70-120 (SWAG).0 -
"Stop promoting liberal conspiracy theories on Twitter."
https://newrepublic.com/minutes/142650/stop-promoting-liberal-conspiracy-theories-twitter
"We have always told ourselves stories about what waits in the dark. It’s how we cope with uncertainty. But campfire tales are usually just that: tales. To find your way in the dark, you need something real. "0 -
We had the back of Maggie's hand,Scott_P said:
Howay, manMarqueeMark said:Everyone's a Tory now, canny lad....
Times were tough in Geordie land.
No longer it would seem.0 -
Just wondering when we are going to get the Panorama special digging around into leaders backgrounds? I mean with Call Me Dave they did enough of them they could have had their own series.0
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I was surprised, and disappointed, that the Remainers in Parliament did not unite around keeping the UK in the Single Market.SouthamObserver said:A result I regret and one that will cause us significant damage, but a vote is a vote and has to be respected. I am surprised there are so many people that do not accept that.
In the aftermath of the referendum vote Labour MPs were more concerned with their failed putsch, than what would happen to the country, the Lib Dems were chasing their fantasy of aping the SNP and rallying die-hard remainers to their banner, and it looks like only Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke really believed in what they were saying during the referendum campaign.0
This discussion has been closed.