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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling in 50 key LAB marginals offers a glimmer of
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling in 50 key LAB marginals offers a glimmer of hope to the red team
YouGov has just produced some analysis of the views of voters in 50 seats that Labour held onto two years ago but that the Tories are targeting now.
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https://twitter.com/AndrewSparrow/status/864083737167974401
Where are "different ethnic groups are being paid less for doing the same jobs?"
And yet I still (probably) won't vote Conservative.
When we have central campaigns constantly covered by our national media spending £19m and local campaigns spending £10K if they are lucky that is hardly surprising. If the constituency question was important we would have more Lib Dem MPs than we do including some useful ones like Steven Webb. But we don't.
Alternatively, she's just cynically trying to hoover up votes from three-quarters of the political spectrum, but that doesn't strike me as remotely plausible; I think she's entirely genuine in her wish to use government power to address inequality and discrimination, and believes it will be effective. Much like the Blairites.
Will all Jews please go and stand in the corner over there, all blacks there, South Asians over there....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/jeremy-corbyn-praises-new-election-chief-blamed-west-rise-isil/
If we assume that 78% of the transfers from UKIP [ about 66% in total ], then the Tories will receive a huge number of votes.
They will not gain a single seat from Labour. 1 from UKIP. That's it.
London also will not follow national swings.
25 years ago the NHS was quite dodgy on equal opportunities, but those days are gone. The exception is higher management, who are disproportionately white British.
'I have taken from my party everything they thought they believed in, I have stripped them of their core beliefs. What keeps them together is success and power'
How much longer will the Tory Right be able to stomach this sort of thing? Surely someone will break ranks soon and noisily defect to UKIP.
This country gave me a fantastic education, job opportunities and earning potential so long as I worked hard.
My skin colour nor my notional religion have ever been a bar.
I know I'm getting paid a very good salary without stuff like this.
The Race Relations Act of the 60s and 70s did their jobs.
The evidence so far is that, excluding London, the Tories are doing best where there is most to gain and slightly less well otherwise. Even this Yougov analysis suggests that the swing in Labour's 50 marginals is greater than the average swing, albeit by a modest amount.
(Unless they are Polish plumbers vs locals.)
On the substance of this idea I am instinctively against it, but I would like to know what problem is it trying to solve?
But, above all, remember LABOUR CANNOT WIN.
So you can vote Labour without worrying that the old Marxist will get in.
We honestly don't know. But something 2015 did clearly bear out was incumbency bonus, especially for first-timers. Punters should factor that in.
Get thyself down to Lewes !
The small state tories - the thatcherites, shire tories and blue liberals - are going to find their tax bills going up and the state getting a fair bit more involved in their lives over the next five years.
They're not going to like it and there will be very little they can do about it.
It is somewhat ironic that the Tories' biggest achievement under Cameron came entirely inadvertently and against the judgement of the leader.
Or possibly we'll see that some groups are still disproportionately left out, even controlling for other factors.
She underperformed badly on the day (r2)
Was Ashcroft's and Yougov's methodology the same ? Sample sizes ? How the question was asked ?
We do not know the details. At least, I don't.
Given Labour's current unelectability, and the idiocy of the membership regarding Corbyn, I don't see where the Conservative Right goes if they really dislike May's policies especially with a significant Tory majority she'll have - she clearly expects that to give her more room to do what she wants.
Given May's attitude towards the police while Home Secretary, her recent policies don't actually surprise me too much.
What about your local Labour MP, how will you vote factoring that in? Oh, good point; I like him!
What did you do on the day? I voted Conservative. Strong and stable and all that.
https://order-order.com/2017/05/15/cable-does-a-diane/
This may only be the hors d'oeuvres. Will Corbyn cling on, should he lose the General Election, and, if he does, what will Labour MPs do?
Also, first episode of a new serial, by me, is out. Wandering Phoenix and Roaming Tiger is brimming with action and adventure, plot twists and shenanigans. And the first episode is free, so do give it a look:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Phoenix-Rising-Wandering-Roaming-Tiger-ebook/dp/B071LCLJYY/
While the outcome may or may not yield interesting conclusions (may not in all likelihood), it is the process which is distasteful at best and something far nastier at worst.
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/864098429802360833
https://twitter.com/tmlbk/status/864099877411794944
https://twitter.com/tmlbk/status/864100654331162628
Since we're getting a bigger Conservative majority government, my hope is that most of the incoming MPs will lean more to the liberal side of the Conservative party, as opposed to Bill Cash fraction of the party.
What's amazing is how Ed Miliband has in many ways provided the blue print for British politics going forward. If he had only recognised his talents as an ideas guy, rather than as a leader Labour most likely wouldn't be in the place it's in right now.
It is frightening in its scope and ambition.
Be afraid, be very afraid.
Will London, the North West behave similarly ? I think the Tories will pick lots of seats in the Midlands and Wales [ even though I have doubts about the Welsh poll ]. In the North, Labour has large enough majorities in many seats to withstand UKIP transfers. Of course, some will go.
7 series though, shows it was popular in its time
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love_Thy_Neighbour
Poles aren't a different race
The Tory media finished him off long before the election.
But remember LABOUR CANNOT WIN. So you can vote Labour in your constituency.
The small state tories - the thatcherites, shire tories and blue liberals - are going to find their tax bills going up and the state getting a fair bit more involved in their lives over the next five y
They're not going to like it and there will be very little they can do about it.
I dont like it already.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/15/are-tories-workers-party-labour-polling-figures-suggest-they-are
But, I expect her to depart fairly soon after GE2022 if her domestic policies for that Parliament start to become an issue, by which time she will be almost 66 years old anyway.
But, all bets are off once we're actually Out.
- my experience of talking to voters
- the heading VI and regional subsamples
- the comments from Labour MPs
and, of course, my desire for a decent Tory majority
I dont like it already.
If her majority is big enough maybe 150 or so tory MP's could split off to form the official opposition?
This could be the result, question is who would be the LoTO? Osbourne is stepping down. Anna Soubry or Nicky Morgan prehaps.
https://tinyurl.com/kk8x645
http://action.labour.org.uk/page/-/A4 BIG _PRINT_ENG_LABOUR MANIFESTO_TEXT LAYOUT.pdf
But, I think her emphasis is different and she will focus those tax cuts on low/low-middle earners, not higher earners, and shift the balance of public spending away from pensioners, and towards struggling workers/families trying to afford a home, childcare or other bills.
In other words, people in their 30s-40s, not those aged 55+, and people earning 15-35k, not those earning 50-80k.
Which is the most C2 Labour seat in England ?
Actually I find the most distasteful character in Little Britain to be Ann the mentally ill patient. How did they get away with that?
NONE of the top 10 most read BBC news stories are related to the general election.
None.
Labour Ian Murray 19,293 39.1 +4.4
SNP Neil Hay 16,656 33.8 +26.1
Conservative Miles Briggs 8,626 17.5 -4.1
Scottish Green Phyl Meyer 2,090 4.2 +2.2
That said, the press were absolutely ridiculous in the way they depicted him - 'Red Ed' etc. Miliband was a metropolitan liberal leftie, he wasn't a Marxist.
Worth reading.
But elsewhere I have my doubts on her broader conservativism.
If you go to the Ashcroft survey more voters in Ed North and Leigh want JC as PM than TM. Not a usual result.
The Fast Show had some funny scenes, but was very repetitive, which was supposedly part of the joke, but I found slightly lazy. Catherine Tate was similar.
Both to some extent leveraged Theresa May's strong and stable, in that if you repeat a character and its catchphrase often enough, it eventually enters the national cultural lexicon.
Well written as it was, and thank you for introducing me to yet another meaning for the word Misericorde, it did I fear contain a couple of very significant errors.
Holy days were, in fact, mostly times of feast when the normal strictures about abstaining from certain foods could be put aside. Echoes of this can still be heard in church calendars today where they talk about the Feast of St. Someoneorother. I know it is much to modern for you by the Battle of Agincourt was fought upon the "Feast of St. Crispin and St.Crispian" as you would have noted from Shakespeare's Henry V speech before the battle (he even mentions men feasting their neighbours yearly on the eve thereof). The strictures of Lent were probably much less demanding given that there is at least one feast day each week.
Secondly, I am afraid you are wildly out on the diet of the average English peasant (not that there was such a thing as the word is generally understood). The archaeological evidence is now very solid; the average dweller in a medieval English village ate a varied and what would nowadays be considered as a very healthy diet. Not too much meat but plenty of fish and roughage. And never mind the small ale either. There is sound evidence that wine was regularly consumed along with mead and pukka strength beer (metheglin and other spirits were also not unknown).
Back to politics, "What will Labour MPs do after the election you ask. Bugger all, I strongly suspect. I doubt any sort of rebellion will kick off because there will not be anyone prepared to lead such a thing.