Also, anything that upsets the Conservative Right makes me very happy indeed. Their ideas of what Britain should be like should stay on the backbenches.
Given Labour's current unelectability, and the idiocy of the membership regarding Corbyn, I don't see where the Conservative Right goes if they really dislike May's policies especially with a significant Tory majority she'll have - she clearly expects that to give her more room to do what she wants.
Given May's attitude towards the police while Home Secretary, her recent policies don't actually surprise me too much.
I suspect after the election quite a few Tory loonies will link Mrs May's changes on stop and search to the increased knife crime in London.
FWIW, I think May is still a Conservative, and believes in a low-tax economy.
But, I think her emphasis is different and she will focus those tax cuts on low/low-middle earners, not higher earners, and shift the balance of public spending away from pensioners, and towards struggling workers/families trying to afford a home, childcare or other bills.
In other words, people in their 30s-40s, not those aged 55+, and people earning 15-35k, not those earning 50-80k.
She's a socially liberal conservative, just look at her introducing same sex marriage or changes on stop and search.
But elsewhere I have my doubts on her broader conservativism.
She would see her herself as being her own woman: socially liberal on some things (as you describe above) and socially conservative on others, such as immigration and the family.
Guardian write up on ICM Poll says Conservative Lead in the Top 50 Labour Marginals is now 20% (52-32) vs. 10% last week (48-38). Even allowing for MOE this would fit a narrative that Labour's 30% buoyancy may be driven more by solid voters in safe seats as opposed to the marginals.
Guardian write up on ICM Poll says Conservative Lead in the Top 50 Labour Marginals is now 20% (52-32) vs. 10% last week (48-38). Even allowing for MOE this would fit a narrative that Labour's 30% buoyancy may be driven more by solid voters in safe seats as opposed to the marginals.
Mr. Llama, well, the medieval era did cover quite a few centuries and things did change over that period.
Also, bread and cheese were the staples of peasant diets. I'm not saying in many places fish wasn't eaten, just that it wasn't the case that fish was eaten as often as cheese/bread.
Agree entirely ale was the order of the day, but I didn't really go into drinks at all.
Guardian write up on ICM Poll says Conservative Lead in the Top 50 Labour Marginals is now 20% (52-32) vs. 10% last week (48-38). Even allowing for MOE this would fit a narrative that Labour's 30% buoyancy may be driven more by solid voters in safe seats as opposed to the marginals.
Right everyone, we need to work out which racial group you are in to be able to submit our government return.
Will all Jews please go and stand in the corner over there, all blacks there, South Asians over there....
It is why we need diversity officers. The government lays down rules and someone has the responsibility for following and monitoring them.
25 years ago the NHS was quite dodgy on equal opportunities, but those days are gone. The exception is higher management, who are disproportionately white British.
25 years ago (or thereabouts) you could watch Love Thy Neighbour on the tellybox. Attitudes change and my belief is that in the vast majority of cases today in the UK, race isn't taken into account when hiring or paying people.
I worked in Ireland in 2007 and was astonished to find they had an up to date version of Mind Your Language showing weekly. It felt like time warping to 1980 but with leprechauns.
Even in this century we had Little Britain, which played heavily on racial stereotypes. I am sure Walliams and Lucas would defend themselves by saying they were being ironic, but so did the makers of Mind Your Language and Til Death Do Us Part.
Actually I find the most distasteful character in Little Britain to be Ann the mentally ill patient. How did they get away with that?
LB was utter guff tbf
A couple of the sketches rank in my all time favs (The Scottish Hotelier's riddle, Fat Fighers "Dust") but other parts I found quite gross and unfunny, in particular the character of Ann, the Nan fancier and "Bitty"
Right everyone, we need to work out which racial group you are in to be able to submit our government return.
Will all Jews please go and stand in the corner over there, all blacks there, South Asians over there....
It is why we need diversity officers. The government lays down rules and someone has the responsibility for following and monitoring them.
25 years ago the NHS was quite dodgy on equal opportunities, but those days are gone. The exception is higher management, who are disproportionately white British.
25 years ago (or thereabouts) you could watch Love Thy Neighbour on the tellybox. Attitudes change and my belief is that in the vast majority of cases today in the UK, race isn't taken into account when hiring or paying people.
I worked in Ireland in 2007 and was astonished to find they had an up to date version of Mind Your Language showing weekly. It felt like time warping to 1980 but with leprechauns.
Even in this century we had Little Britain, which played heavily on racial stereotypes. I am sure Walliams and Lucas would defend themselves by saying they were being ironic, but so did the makers of Mind Your Language and Til Death Do Us Part.
Actually I find the most distasteful character in Little Britain to be Ann the mentally ill patient. How did they get away with that?
Not allowed to talk to Isam but not a partisan point. He's absolutely right. Little Britain was pretty awful and the mentally ill character was just beyond the pale. I find Walliams and Lucas waspish to the point of being misanthropic.
I just found the humour of Little Britain immature.
The Fast Show had some funny scenes, but was very repetitive, which was supposedly part of the joke, but I found slightly lazy. Catherine Tate was similar.
Both to some extent leveraged Theresa May's strong and stable, in that if you repeat a character and its catchphrase often enough, it eventually enters the national cultural lexicon.
"Today, I have been mostly eating strong & stable food"
"Being strong & stable is very much like making love to a beautiful woman"
"I'd better be going to the bottom field sir, to sort out the drainage and make it strong and stable."
I saw that on Twitter early this morning and wondered when someone was going to mention it on here. Strangely for a site where the sub-questions of a poll are quickly flagged up, nobody until now has. I wonder why.
May has had her Gillian Duffy moment and managed not to call the lady in question a bigot or denigrate her in any other way. Gordon Brown, your team took one hell of a beating.
Vote efficiency premium shot to pieces. Only London sees an area of many Labour seats generally holding off the surge. This could be a bloodbath.
Even London isn't too bad for the Tories to be perfectly honest. There are some seats that need very low swings from Labour there (Ilford North, Brentford & Isleworth, Ealing, Hampstead) and also some potentially deeper but more kippery fruit in the east (Dagenham).
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
I saw that on Twitter early this morning and wondered when someone was going to mention it on here. Strangely for a site where the sub-questions of a poll are quickly flagged up, nobody until now has. I wonder why.
Tories within a 1% swing of catching up to Labour in the North East! That's unbelievable. Labour lead down from 22% in 2015 to 2% now.
If YouGov is overestimate Labour then the Tories could be ahead in the North East. I can't wrap my head around that, but then they did win the Tees Valley Mayoralty ...
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUE
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUE
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUE
Tories within a 1% swing of catching up to Labour in the North East! That's unbelievable. Labour lead down from 22% in 2015 to 2% now.
If YouGov is overestimate Labour then the Tories could be ahead in the North East. I can't wrap my head around that, but then they did win the Tees Valley Mayoralty ...
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUE
As it stands I can't see him getting over 150, the next three weeks are going to be brutal
If YG figures are correct, how can Labour match Ed M's vote share percentage?
Well I guess Labour are just about the only 'not Tory' vote in town outside Scotland. With the pathetic shares forecast for kippers, libs and Greens they HAVE to get high 20s to 30 or it will be a 250 majority.
Theresa is rapidly becoming the Tories' female Tony Blair:
'I have taken from my party everything they thought they believed in, I have stripped them of their core beliefs. What keeps them together is success and power'
How much longer will the Tory Right be able to stomach this sort of thing? Surely someone will break ranks soon and noisily defect to UKIP.
More likely to sit quietly and wait for it to all go wrong and then do a Corbyn.
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUE
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
Mr. Rabbit, you might want to cast your mind back a few weeks when the talk on here was whether it was possible that Labour could go below 200 seats.
For myself I am still struggling to match the polling VI numbers with the seat predictions on here. The Lib Dems polling 8% or so will get 10+ seats (20 to 55 if you listen to Roger) but Labour on about 30% will lose seats in big numbers.
Labour will win Ed South. The question is Ed North and Leigh. And, East Lothian.
If you go to the Ashcroft survey more voters in Ed North and Leigh want JC as PM than TM. Not a usual result.
EN&L is my seat, but I've not been here long enough to know it. The Tories are the only people I have received a general election leaflet from thus far, talking up their chances on the basis of the local election results.
If you take the local election results as any sort of guide, Labour are far more likely to finish fourth than first in this seat. The local election results were consistent with the opinion polls that show the Conservatives advancing as Labour retreat.
Why should Edinburgh North and Leith be any different?
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
It does look as though those who enjoy "Terrible night for the Tories" GEs will be looking forward to the one after this.
Labour will win Ed South. The question is Ed North and Leigh. And, East Lothian.
If you go to the Ashcroft survey more voters in Ed North and Leigh want JC as PM than TM. Not a usual result.
EN&L is my seat, but I've not been here long enough to know it. The Tories are the only people I have received a general election leaflet from thus far, talking up their chances on the basis of the local election results.
If you take the local election results as any sort of guide, Labour are far more likely to finish fourth than first in this seat. The local election results were consistent with the opinion polls that show the Conservatives advancing as Labour retreat.
Why should Edinburgh North and Leith be any different?
I think the idea of Labour taking Edinburgh North & Leith, but not capturing East Lothian is frankly laughable. I'm on East Lothian at 10-1, I'm expecting the seat to stay SNP mind.
Also, anything that upsets the Conservative Right makes me very happy indeed. Their ideas of what Britain should be like should stay on the backbenches.
Given Labour's current unelectability, and the idiocy of the membership regarding Corbyn, I don't see where the Conservative Right goes if they really dislike May's policies especially with a significant Tory majority she'll have - she clearly expects that to give her more room to do what she wants.
Given May's attitude towards the police while Home Secretary, her recent policies don't actually surprise me too much.
I suspect after the election quite a few Tory loonies will link Mrs May's changes on stop and search to the increased knife crime in London.
FWIW, I think May is still a Conservative, and believes in a low-tax economy.
But, I think her emphasis is different and she will focus those tax cuts on low/low-middle earners, not higher earners, and shift the balance of public spending away from pensioners, and towards struggling workers/families trying to afford a home, childcare or other bills.
In other words, people in their 30s-40s, not those aged 55+, and people earning 15-35k, not those earning 50-80k.
If this is right it would certainly fit in with her plans for grammar schools in less affluent areas. It would certainly be nice to see young working families on average salaries get some reward. The last 10 years haven't been a bed of roses. Good luck to her if she makes it work. I rather suspect that we'll end up chucking money at the baby boomers and people who aren't working,and with the new schools in middle class market towns as usual but it's nice to dream.
Vote efficiency premium shot to pieces. Only London sees an area of many Labour seats generally holding off the surge. This could be a bloodbath.
There is no doubt Labour are heading for a bloodbath. Only the scale of the massacre is to be determined.
You can get 12/1 against Labour going under 100 seats...
Under 100 Labour seats would be the Labour party in the political mortuary.
However despite the Jezza death cult it's difficult to see Labour under 120 let alone 100. Some seats are resistant to the charms of the May death stare.
Should I tear up those 10/1 betting slips which has Labour polling sub 20%?
Frankly it would require a Lib Dem surge and convincing Labour voters not to bother to get sub 20 now, but crazier bets have come in. Or if a national disgust with Corbyn sets in which would require him to fall apart publicly on an emotive issue,
A result I regret and one that will cause us significant damage, but a vote is a vote and has to be respected. I am surprised there are so many people that do not accept that.
One thing I am noticing from these regional polls. The Lib Dems are doing better than previously assumed. Have not resulted in too many extra seats though.
Labour will win Ed South. The question is Ed North and Leigh. And, East Lothian.
If you go to the Ashcroft survey more voters in Ed North and Leigh want JC as PM than TM. Not a usual result.
EN&L is my seat, but I've not been here long enough to know it. The Tories are the only people I have received a general election leaflet from thus far, talking up their chances on the basis of the local election results.
If you take the local election results as any sort of guide, Labour are far more likely to finish fourth than first in this seat. The local election results were consistent with the opinion polls that show the Conservatives advancing as Labour retreat.
Why should Edinburgh North and Leith be any different?
Edinburgh North & Leith voted 47% Yes, making it by far the largest Yes voting area of Edinburgh.
It's a split personality constituency taking in as it does both the Port of Leith & Fettes collage, Pilton & Stockbridge. I do not see it going Labour.
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUE
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
Consider: the theory doing the rounds is that Labour are holding up because their voters don't want to give TMay a 200 seat majority.
But imagine if you are a decent centre-lefty or a patriotic Labourite like, say, Southam, and you want your party back, and you want the Hard Left, Chavez-hugging, Hamas-loving IRA-honouring Corbynites gone, and gone for ever, after a defeat so bad even Jezbollah can't cling on, and the commies are routed forever. That means, at the very least, not voting Labour, this time.
Meanwhile, TMay is offering lots of rather lefty sounding policies, and doesn't look so bad at all, and if anyone is going to handle Brexit "competently", it will be her, not Jeremy. These are actual reasons to vote FOR the Tories, for any Labourite who dislikes Corbyn.
Labour's own voters are like a bunch of disgruntled football supporters who loathe their manager, and who would rather see the team take a terrible trashing, just this once, so he is forced to quit, than continue the constant trudge to permanent decline.
A perfect electoral storm approaches Labour, they could go below 100. Personally, having thought they'd get 180-200 I now see it more like 150....
But to use your analogy, while there may be Wenger out people who theoretically think that Arsenal getting a beating might have long term benefits, they wouldn't want the beating to come from Tottenham, and they certainly would throw up at the thought of actively cheering Tottenham, regardless of the long term implications.
You could not design a leader of a political party to be more repellent to voters in the Midlands than Jeremy Corbyn. The party tried to alienate its voter-base with Ed Miliband and got a fair level of success. But Jeremy takes things to a whole new level. It will be an absolute bloodbath for Labour here.
Indeed. If, when the voter was told just before going into the booth, "Think about your constituency", it might produce the same difference in real life as in the hypothetical. But normally, they'll be thinking about dinner, Coronation Street, whatever they were doing just before coming in, who they were chatting with on the way in, and be thinking simply about voting rather than specifically about their constituency.
If they specifically haven't made up their mind until the polling booth (which is rare), then you might get a bit of a push in this direction when they see the names on the paper. But normally, they'll have decided beforehand and without being told to think specifically about the local contest.
I'd say there might be a very small push in this direction - but I'd place the outcome to be somewhere between the unadjusted outcome and the "think about your constituency" outcome, and far, far closer to the former than the latter.
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUE
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
Consider: the theory doing the rounds is that Labour are holding up because their voters don't want to give TMay a 200 seat majority.
But imagine if you are a decent centre-lefty or a patriotic Labourite like, say, Southam, and you want your party back, and you want the Hard Left, Chavez-hugging, Hamas-loving IRA-honouring Corbynites gone, and gone for ever, after a defeat so bad even Jezbollah can't cling on, and the commies are routed forever. That means, at the very least, not voting Labour, this time.
Meanwhile, TMay is offering lots of rather lefty sounding policies, and doesn't look so bad at all, and if anyone is going to handle Brexit "competently", it will be her, not Jeremy. These are actual reasons to vote FOR the Tories, for any Labourite who dislikes Corbyn.
Labour's own voters are like a bunch of disgruntled football supporters who loathe their manager, and who would rather see the team take a terrible trashing, just this once, so he is forced to quit, than continue the constant trudge to permanent decline.
A perfect electoral storm approaches Labour, they could go below 100. Personally, having thought they'd get 180-200 I now see it more like 150....
But to use your analogy, while there may be Wenger out people who theoretically think that Arsenal getting a beating might have long term benefits, they wouldn't want the beating to come from Tottenham, and they certainly would throw up at the thought of actively cheering Tottenham, regardless of the long term implications.
It's not binary. I don't rate May, I think she is going to disappoint millions and millions of voters over the coming years and I will not vote for her. But there is no way on God's earth I am going to vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUE
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
Consider: the theory doing the rounds is that Labour are holding up because their voters don't want to give TMay a 200 seat majority.
But imagine if you are a decent centre-lefty or a patriotic Labourite like, say, Southam, and you want your party back, and you want the Hard Left, Chavez-hugging, Hamas-loving IRA-honouring Corbynites gone, and gone for ever, after a defeat so bad even Jezbollah can't cling on, and the commies are routed forever. That means, at the very least, not voting Labour, this time.
Meanwhile, TMay is offering lots of rather lefty sounding policies, and doesn't look so bad at all, and if anyone is going to handle Brexit "competently", it will be her, not Jeremy. These are actual reasons to vote FOR the Tories, for any Labourite who dislikes Corbyn.
Labour's own voters are like a bunch of disgruntled football supporters who loathe their manager, and who would rather see the team take a terrible trashing, just this once, so he is forced to quit, than continue the constant trudge to permanent decline.
A perfect electoral storm approaches Labour, they could go below 100. Personally, having thought they'd get 180-200 I now see it more like 150....
But to use your analogy, while there may be Wenger out people who theoretically think that Arsenal getting a beating might have long term benefits, they wouldn't want the beating to come from Tottenham, and they certainly would throw up at the thought of actively cheering Tottenham, regardless of the long term implications.
But Tottenham are rebranding as Theresa Hotspurs... and promising to help out with Arsenal's youth programme, grassroots football in Highbury, Etc.
You know and I know that the average Gooner wouldn't buy that for a second.
One thing I am noticing from these regional polls. The Lib Dems are doing better than previously assumed. Have not resulted in too many extra seats though.
What's a rule of thumb for a recount? How close does it have to be?
If (OK big if, but still) the tories get 80% of UKIP votes from 2015 + a 10% direct Lab/Con swing in the NE, then Houghton and Sunderland South might just go TCTC
That would screw their "first declaration" ambitions and make for a somewhat explosive start to the night....
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
Not going to happen. As mentioned elsewhere in the thread, there will be automatic stabilisers which prevent Lab going too low, mainly the thought that people can vote Lab without any danger of getting a Lab govt.
I did say 60-100 seats is about right although I might move that up a touch now to, say 70-120 (SWAG).
"We have always told ourselves stories about what waits in the dark. It’s how we cope with uncertainty. But campfire tales are usually just that: tales. To find your way in the dark, you need something real. "
Just wondering when we are going to get the Panorama special digging around into leaders backgrounds? I mean with Call Me Dave they did enough of them they could have had their own series.
A result I regret and one that will cause us significant damage, but a vote is a vote and has to be respected. I am surprised there are so many people that do not accept that.
I was surprised, and disappointed, that the Remainers in Parliament did not unite around keeping the UK in the Single Market.
In the aftermath of the referendum vote Labour MPs were more concerned with their failed putsch, than what would happen to the country, the Lib Dems were chasing their fantasy of aping the SNP and rallying die-hard remainers to their banner, and it looks like only Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke really believed in what they were saying during the referendum campaign.
Comments
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/864112821419876352
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/864113070796410881
https://twitter.com/yannikouts/status/864101620497494016
http://www.gbmaps.info/social-class-maps/c2.html
Not by constituency, but you can see C2 largely maps places UKIP did well at the last GE.
Edit: I plugged these figures into my simulation [ which previously had "national" figures" ].
Prior: C 41, Lab 18.
Now: C44, Lab 15.
Note improvement in LD figures. Labour should target those.
Also, bread and cheese were the staples of peasant diets. I'm not saying in many places fish wasn't eaten, just that it wasn't the case that fish was eaten as often as cheese/bread.
Agree entirely ale was the order of the day, but I didn't really go into drinks at all.
Labour are picking up 12% Libs, 7% Kippers and 4% Tories
Tories are picking up 42% Kippers. 19% Libs, 10% Labour
Greens/Plaids look like 20% transfers to Lab.
It does indeed suggest that Labour are gaining votes where they are largely useless and losing them where they matter.
This is brutal for Labour.
"Being strong & stable is very much like making love to a beautiful woman"
"I'd better be going to the bottom field sir, to sort out the drainage and make it strong and stable."
Hartlepool, Sedgefield, Tynemouth.
Prior: Lab 23, Con 6
Now: Lab 20, Con 9
VI
2017 / 2015 : C 25 / 40, Lab 47 / 42, LD 7 / 6 , UKIP 17 /8
Which was nice.
National swing: C 30, Lab 44, LD 1
Regional swing: C 34, Lab 40, LD 1
We live in interesting times.
"Aw.....Bugger........."
EDIT: This seems very apposite for how Labour are being treated -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gC1CdHQXiVU
If YouGov is overestimate Labour then the Tories could be ahead in the North East. I can't wrap my head around that, but then they did win the Tees Valley Mayoralty ...
In fact that's probably just about the whole of the UK to be honest.
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
Yorks and Humber:
National swing: C 23, Lab 29, LD 2
Regional swing: C 23, Lab 29, LD 2
No change !!!!!!!!!!!!
If it has dropped, well all bets are off at that point.
Not even SeanT would have the words to describe that moment!!!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolsover_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
For myself I am still struggling to match the polling VI numbers with the seat predictions on here. The Lib Dems polling 8% or so will get 10+ seats (20 to 55 if you listen to Roger) but Labour on about 30% will lose seats in big numbers.
NI 18, Green 1, Lib Dem 8, SNP 45, Speaker 1, Plaid 2 adds through.
If you take the local election results as any sort of guide, Labour are far more likely to finish fourth than first in this seat. The local election results were consistent with the opinion polls that show the Conservatives advancing as Labour retreat.
Why should Edinburgh North and Leith be any different?
Good afternoon, everyone.
I'm on East Lothian at 10-1, I'm expecting the seat to stay SNP mind.
National swing: C 34, Lab 12
Regional swing: C 35, Lab 11
Mansfield goes Tory !
Good luck to her if she makes it work. I rather suspect that we'll end up chucking money at the baby boomers and people who aren't working,and with the new schools in middle class market towns as usual but it's nice to dream.
However despite the Jezza death cult it's difficult to see Labour under 120 let alone 100. Some seats are resistant to the charms of the May death stare.
With a fiver in the top.
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/864070642945208321/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Regional swing: C 44, Lab 15
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwtSdJaPCSI
National swing: C 54, Lab 4
Regional swing: C 54, Lab 3, LD 1
Cambridge.
One thing I am noticing from these regional polls. The Lib Dems are doing better than previously assumed. Have not resulted in too many extra seats though.
It's a split personality constituency taking in as it does both the Port of Leith & Fettes collage, Pilton & Stockbridge. I do not see it going Labour.
Labour under 100 seats is Fourth Crusade territory.
Probably massively inaccurate but gaining a few thousand in the likes of East Ham and Ilford North won't do the Lib Dems any good whatsoever.
If, when the voter was told just before going into the booth, "Think about your constituency", it might produce the same difference in real life as in the hypothetical. But normally, they'll be thinking about dinner, Coronation Street, whatever they were doing just before coming in, who they were chatting with on the way in, and be thinking simply about voting rather than specifically about their constituency.
If they specifically haven't made up their mind until the polling booth (which is rare), then you might get a bit of a push in this direction when they see the names on the paper. But normally, they'll have decided beforehand and without being told to think specifically about the local contest.
I'd say there might be a very small push in this direction - but I'd place the outcome to be somewhere between the unadjusted outcome and the "think about your constituency" outcome, and far, far closer to the former than the latter.
Regional swing [ prior ]: C 30, Lab 39, LD 4
Regional swing: C 30, Lab 39, LD 4
It is the same poll , I think.
Bermondsey is LD Majority = 139. I seriously doubt it.
If (OK big if, but still) the tories get 80% of UKIP votes from 2015 + a 10% direct Lab/Con swing in the NE, then Houghton and Sunderland South might just go TCTC
That would screw their "first declaration" ambitions and make for a somewhat explosive start to the night....
National swing: C 81, Lab 2, GRN 1
Regional swing: C 81, Lab 2, GRN 1
despite much lower swing to the Tories
I did say 60-100 seats is about right although I might move that up a touch now to, say 70-120 (SWAG).
https://newrepublic.com/minutes/142650/stop-promoting-liberal-conspiracy-theories-twitter
"We have always told ourselves stories about what waits in the dark. It’s how we cope with uncertainty. But campfire tales are usually just that: tales. To find your way in the dark, you need something real. "
Times were tough in Geordie land.
No longer it would seem.
In the aftermath of the referendum vote Labour MPs were more concerned with their failed putsch, than what would happen to the country, the Lib Dems were chasing their fantasy of aping the SNP and rallying die-hard remainers to their banner, and it looks like only Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke really believed in what they were saying during the referendum campaign.