Had the Labour canvasser ring the bell yesterday. Can Clive rely on my vote? No, I can't vote for a party led by Jeremy. But you're voting for Clive, not Jeremy. Vote Clive, get Jeremy. Looked like he'd heard that a few times, in what should be cosy territory. Clive Lewis will hold easily but one gets the sense there's some vitriol against Jeremy that's surprising Labour door knockers.
Bish, Darlo, Poolies, Smoggie South & East Cleveland and mebbies some more. All going Blue. For feck's sake.
Thank you for voting for Corbyn as leader in 2015.
But not in 2016!
Sandy, even in 2015 it was obvious that Jeremy is a proper Doyle.
But the alternatives were a true-believer Blairite and two wet rags.
Any of whom would have lost fewer seats than the Corbmeister.
But would definitely have lost. Corbyn was the 'shit or bust' candidate, with the get-out clause that we could replace him before the GE if things didn't work out. That last bit didn't go according to plan.
Bish, Darlo, Poolies, Smoggie South & East Cleveland and mebbies some more. All going Blue. For feck's sake.
Thank you for voting for Corbyn as leader in 2015.
But not in 2016!
Sandy, even in 2015 it was obvious that Jeremy is a proper Doyle.
But the alternatives were a true-believer Blairite and two wet rags.
Any of whom would have lost fewer seats than the Corbmeister.
But would definitely have lost. Corbyn was the 'shit or bust' candidate, with the get-out clause that we could replace him before the GE if things didn't work out. That last bit didn't go according to plan.
Which is your own fault for clearly having no grasp of your own party's rules. That's a fairly fundamental strategic error, as things go.
Bish, Darlo, Poolies, Smoggie South & East Cleveland and mebbies some more. All going Blue. For feck's sake.
Thank you for voting for Corbyn as leader in 2015.
But not in 2016!
Sandy, even in 2015 it was obvious that Jeremy is a proper Doyle.
But the alternatives were a true-believer Blairite and two wet rags.
Any of whom would have lost fewer seats than the Corbmeister.
But would definitely have lost. Corbyn was the 'shit or bust' candidate, with the get-out clause that we could replace him before the GE if things didn't work out. That last bit didn't go according to plan.
I warned you Corbyn would be like an STD.
It is usually fun the way you catch them, but a fecking pain to get rid of.
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUE
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
Consider: the theory doing the rounds is that Labour are holding up because their voters don't want to give TMay a 200 seat majority.
But imagine if you are a decent centre-lefty or a patriotic Labourite like, say, Southam, and you want your party back, and you want the Hard Left, Chavez-hugging, Hamas-loving IRA-honouring Corbynites gone, and gone for ever, after a defeat so bad even Jezbollah can't cling on, and the commies are routed forever. That means, at the very least, not voting Labour, this time.
Meanwhile, TMay is offering lots of rather lefty sounding policies, and doesn't look so bad at all, and if anyone is going to handle Brexit "competently", it will be her, not Jeremy. These are actual reasons to vote FOR the Tories, for any Labourite who dislikes Corbyn.
Labour's own voters are like a bunch of disgruntled football supporters who loathe their manager, and who would rather see the team take a terrible trashing, just this once, so he is forced to quit, than continue the constant trudge to permanent decline.
A perfect electoral storm approaches Labour, they could go below 100. Personally, having thought they'd get 180-200 I now see it more like 150....
But to use your analogy, while there may be Wenger out people who theoretically think that Arsenal getting a beating might have long term benefits, they wouldn't want the beating to come from Tottenham, and they certainly would throw up at the thought of actively cheering Tottenham, regardless of the long term implications.
It's not binary. I don't rate May, I think she is going to disappoint millions and millions of voters over the coming years and I will not vote for her. But there is no way on God's earth I am going to vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
That's my point though. Actually voting for May is a still a step too far for you.
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUE
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
Consider: the theory doing the rounds is that Labour are holding up because their voters don't want to give TMay a 200 seat majority.
Meanwhile, TMay is offering lots of rather lefty sounding policies, and doesn't look so bad at all, and if anyone is going to handle Brexit "competently", it will be her, not Jeremy. These are actual reasons to vote FOR the Tories, for any Labourite who dislikes Corbyn.
Labour's own voters are like a bunch of disgruntled football supporters who loathe their manager, and who would rather see the team take a terrible trashing, just this once, so he is forced to quit, than continue the constant trudge to permanent decline.
A perfect electoral storm approaches Labour, they could go below 100. Personally, having thought they'd get 180-200 I now see it more like 150....
But to use your analogy, while there may be Wenger out people who theoretically think that Arsenal getting a beating might have long term benefits, they wouldn't want the beating to come from Tottenham, and they certainly would throw up at the thought of actively cheering Tottenham, regardless of the long term implications.
It's not binary. I don't rate May, I think she is going to disappoint millions and millions of voters over the coming years and I will not vote for her. But there is no way on God's earth I am going to vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
The day after the manifesto was leaked, I went for a bike ride with my Dad. He has only ever voted for Labour, and wont vote Tory... he even said he agreed with a lot of it "..but cant vote for that prick!"
Bish, Darlo, Poolies, Smoggie South & East Cleveland and mebbies some more. All going Blue. For feck's sake.
Thank you for voting for Corbyn as leader in 2015.
But not in 2016!
Sandy, even in 2015 it was obvious that Jeremy is a proper Doyle.
But the alternatives were a true-believer Blairite and two wet rags.
Any of whom would have lost fewer seats than the Corbmeister.
But would definitely have lost. Corbyn was the 'shit or bust' candidate, with the get-out clause that we could replace him before the GE if things didn't work out. That last bit didn't go according to plan.
I warned you Corbyn would be like an STD.
It is usually fun the way you catch them, but a fecking pain to get rid off.
Sandy you should have bowed to TSEs superior experience of STDs.
'As mentioned elsewhere in the thread, there will be automatic stabilisers which prevent Lab going too low, mainly the thought that people can vote Lab without any danger of getting a Lab govt.'
I think this line is rapidly becoming wishful thinking. I don't think peple are just going to turn out to vote Labour because it doesn't matter. They are more likely to abstain than do that.
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUE
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
Consider: the theory doing the rounds is that Labour are holding up because their voters don't want to give TMay a 200 seat majority.
A perfect electoral storm approaches Labour, they could go below 100. Personally, having thought they'd get 180-200 I now see it more like 150....
But to use your analogy, while there may be Wenger out people who theoretically think that Arsenal getting a beating might have long term benefits, they wouldn't want the beating to come from Tottenham, and they certainly would throw up at the thought of actively cheering Tottenham, regardless of the long term implications.
It's not binary. I don't rate May, I think she is going to disappoint millions and millions of voters over the coming years and I will not vote for her. But there is no way on God's earth I am going to vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
That's my point though. Actually voting for May is a still a step too far for you.
Indeed, but see my edit to my post. Many Labourites will be like Southam, they won't vote for Jeremy, they will abstain, and a handful will go LD or Green.
We're going to have massive differential turnout - especially where it matters. The Let's Get Out 67% are going to vote Tory. Labour inclined voters - not so much.
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUE
As it stands I can't see him getting over 150, the next three weeks are going to be brutal
The Tory bus hasn't even arrived at their stadium yet.... But the Labour guys have had a kick about on the pitch and think that all is going really well so far. Their unusual formation is sure to flummox their opponents. It is what they have been shouting for from the stands all season.
That Labour squad in full:
Left Wing - Jeremy "The Saviour" Corbyn
Left Wing - Diane "The Black Panter" Abbot
Left Wing - John "Psycho" McDonnell
Left Wing - Barry "Lady" Gardener
Left Wing - Rebecca "Long Drop" Long-Bailey
Left Wing - Baroness "Arty-farty" Chakrabarti
Left Wing - Emily "Lady" Thornberry
Left Wing - Gordon "The Incredible Sulk" Brown
Right Wing - Tom "Who ate all the pies?" Watson
Sweeper - John "Trick-shot" Trickett
Goalkeeper - Lisa "That'll Come in" Nandy
Subs bench: Ed "Golden" Balls
Chuka "Who are yer? Who are yer?" Umunna
Yvette "Snowflake" Cooper
Coach: Karl Marx
You're goin' bust in the mornin', You're going' bust in the mornin' Bust in the morning'......
For what it's worth, I think Liz Kendall could have stood a decent chance against May.
Liz would have been great. Very popular in her own constituency, able to bridge the divide, normal and very telegenic. The Labour members thought differently and instead selected a 'shit or bust' candidate – presumably on the basis he would be guaranteed to be shit and a racing certainty to bust the Labour party.
Mr. Patrick, remind me of that? I have vague memories of it.
The Fourth Crusade reference is in line (although Eastern) with my brilliant list of Western Roman military defeats, to map against Labour's seat performance.
A result I regret and one that will cause us significant damage, but a vote is a vote and has to be respected. I am surprised there are so many people that do not accept that.
I don't accept the vote....people didn't know what they were voting for...for instance farmers...
Equally I don't accept the Labour leadership vote.....
These two votes have completely ruined my faith that people en masse collectively make the right decision (doesn't apply to Trump who lost obviously)
Bish, Darlo, Poolies, Smoggie South & East Cleveland and mebbies some more. All going Blue. For feck's sake.
Thank you for voting for Corbyn as leader in 2015.
But not in 2016!
Sandy, even in 2015 it was obvious that Jeremy is a proper Doyle.
But the alternatives were a true-believer Blairite and two wet rags.
Any of whom would have lost fewer seats than the Corbmeister.
But would definitely have lost. Corbyn was the 'shit or bust' candidate, with the get-out clause that we could replace him before the GE if things didn't work out. That last bit didn't go according to plan.
Latest literature count here in Ceredigion - Lib dems 5, Plaid 1, Others 0
Been discussi g the lib dem carpet bombing approach with literature. Some if us think that it is starting to have a counter productive effect. They become a bit like Dominos pizza delivery leaflets and people by the 5th or 6th do t read them at all..
But to use your analogy, while there may be Wenger out people who theoretically think that Arsenal getting a beating might have long term benefits, they wouldn't want the beating to come from Tottenham, and they certainly would throw up at the thought of actively cheering Tottenham, regardless of the long term implications.
It's not binary. I don't rate May, I think she is going to disappoint millions and millions of voters over the coming years and I will not vote for her. But there is no way on God's earth I am going to vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
That's my point though. Actually voting for May is a still a step too far for you.
Not everyone is an avid Arsenal or Spurs fan though. If all the neutral talent decide they want to go to Spurs and Arsenal struggle to keep their stars and then can't get anyone in on the transfer market they might do a lot worse than fail to reach the Champions League.
Or to stop using the analogy if Labour's own partisans (like Southam) won't back them and no swing voters do either then the floor is a long way down.
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUE
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
Consider: the theory doing the rounds is that Labour are holding up because their voters don't want to give TMay a 200 seat majority.
A perfect electoral storm approaches Labour, they could go below 100. Personally, having thought they'd get 180-200 I now see it more like 150....
But to use your analogy, while there may be Wenger out people who theoretically think that Arsenal getting a beating might have long term benefits, they wouldn't want the beating to come from Tottenham, and they certainly would throw up at the thought of actively cheering Tottenham, regardless of the long term implications.
It's not binary. I don't rate May, I think she is going to disappoint millions and millions of voters over the coming years and I will not vote for her. But there is no way on God's earth I am going to vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
That's my point though. Actually voting for May is a still a step too far for you.
Indeed, but see my edit to my post. Many Labourites will be like Southam, they won't vote for Jeremy, they will abstain, and a handful will go LD or Green.
I suspect turnout will be 60% or less. What do you think?
Are there any good markets on GE turnout? Couldn't see anything on Betfair...
For what it's worth, I think Liz Kendall could have stood a decent chance against May.
Liz would have been great. Very popular in her own constituency, able to bridge the divide, normal and very telegenic. The Labour members thought differently and instead selected a 'shit or bust' candidate – presumably on the basis he would be guaranteed to be shit and a racing certainty to bust the Labour party.
There would always have been a "deliver Brexit" factor driving voters to the Tories, though, I think. Could have been a decent opposition presenting itself aas government in waiting for the next election
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUE
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
Consider: the theory doing the rounds is that Labour are holding up because their voters don't want to give TMay a 200 seat majority.
A perfect electoral storm approaches Labour, they could go below 100. Personally, having thought they'd get 180-200 I now see it more like 150....
But to use your analogy, while there may be Wenger out people who theoretically think that Arsenal getting a beating might have long term benefits, they wouldn't want the beating to come from Tottenham, and they certainly would throw up at the thought of actively cheering Tottenham, regardless of the long term implications.
It's not binary. I don't rate May, I think she is going to disappoint millions and millions of voters over the coming years and I will not vote for her. But there is no way on God's earth I am going to vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
That's my point though. Actually voting for May is a still a step too far for you.
Indeed, but see my edit to my post. Many Labourites will be like Southam, they won't vote for Jeremy, they will abstain, and a handful will go LD or Green.
Very true. Anecdotal, of course, but I have an elderly relative who has literally voted Labour in every single local and general election for the best part of sixty years. And he's stated that he won't do so this time because of Corbyn and his gang. Is this sentiment widely held? I suspect it is and Labour are about to be blown to smithereens.
For what it's worth, I think Liz Kendall could have stood a decent chance against May.
Liz would have been great. Very popular in her own constituency, able to bridge the divide, normal and very telegenic. The Labour members thought differently and instead selected a 'shit or bust' candidate – presumably on the basis he would be guaranteed to be shit and a racing certainty to bust the Labour party.
Please not Liz Kendell....she was completely vacuous with the presentational capacity of a children's entertainer....
The figures just about support sub 100 if voters turn it into a Get The Corbyn witch hunt, which an MSM campaign focusing on his dodgy associations might provoke. We live in interesting times.
With this regional breakdown the 9/4 available on Labour getting 100-149 seats looks like VALUE
every fibre of my being says that Labour can't get fewer than 150 seats. it's just not possible.
Consider: the theory doing the rounds is that Labour are holding up because their voters don't want to give TMay a 200 seat majority.
But not voting Labour, this time.
Meanwhile, TMay is offering lots of rather lefty sounding policies, and doesn't look so bad at all, and if anyone is going to handle Brexit "competently", it will be her, not Jeremy. These are actual reasons to vote FOR the Tories, for any Labourite who dislikes Corbyn.
Labour's permanent decline.
A perfect electoral storm approaches Labour, they could go below 100. Personally, having thought they'd get 180-200 I now see it more like 150....
But to use your analogy, while there may be Wenger out people who theoretically think that Arsenal getting a beating might have long term benefits, they wouldn't want the beating to come from Tottenham, and they certainly would throw up at the thought of actively cheering Tottenham, regardless of the long term implications.
It's not binary. I don't rate May, I think she is going to disappoint millions and millions of voters over the coming years and I will not vote for her. But there is no way on God's earth I am going to vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
That's my point though. Actually voting for May is a still a step too far for you.
I am agreeing with you. She is an awful PM. However, I am not going to vote Corbyn to get rid of her. I expect there are going to be a lot like me. And it will hurt Labour where it matters most, because for reason I cannot see - but which clearly exist - May is getting positive votes, not just anti-Corbyn ones.
Guardian write up on ICM Poll says Conservative Lead in the Top 50 Labour Marginals is now 20% (52-32) vs. 10% last week (48-38). Even allowing for MOE this would fit a narrative that Labour's 30% buoyancy may be driven more by solid voters in safe seats as opposed to the marginals.
On a six pollster average (don't knows and undecideds still in the 100%):
Labour are picking up 12% Libs, 7% Kippers and 4% Tories Tories are picking up 42% Kippers. 19% Libs, 10% Labour
Greens/Plaids look like 20% transfers to Lab.
It does indeed suggest that Labour are gaining votes where they are largely useless and losing them where they matter.
Yes, there does seem to be a very damaging evening-out in the Labour vote. In its heartlands many of its voters have switched to other parties, because of factors such as Brexit and Corbyn. Meanwhile some middle-class voters (mainly in safe Tory seats) have switched the other way for similar reasons.
You can feel this happening in Birmingham; I expect Rob Pocock to do relatively well in Sutton, and the Tories will probably fall to third in Hall Green. Labour might hold on in Edgbaston (it's a seat of two halves, one might say) but they are surely going to lose Northfield and Erdington.
Tories within a 1% swing of catching up to Labour in the North East! That's unbelievable. Labour lead down from 22% in 2015 to 2% now.
If YouGov is overestimate Labour then the Tories could be ahead in the North East. I can't wrap my head around that, but then they did win the Tees Valley Mayoralty ...
Everyone's a Tory now, canny lad....
Well Momentum have spent the last two years accusing anyone of liking the country, being willing to sing the national anthem, or being to the right of Karl Marx of being a Tory - so the nation is responding by saying OK we're Tories.
Why is David Miliband 100/1 to be the next PM? He's not even a fucking MP. At least Caroline 'my halo has finally slipped' Lucas, at 500/1, is. Bizarre.
Mr. Patrick, remind me of that? I have vague memories of it.
The Fourth Crusade reference is in line (although Eastern) with my brilliant list of Western Roman military defeats, to map against Labour's seat performance.
The Mongols advanced into China (founding the Yuan dynasty - Kublai Khan and all that) and then west towards our world. They ultimately got as far as Hungary! In 1258 they arrived at Baghdad. The Mongol commander Hulagu offered Baghdad an immediate surrender 'or else'. They got 'else'. They sacked Baghdad and then killed EVERYONE. It was the most complete and brutal urbicide in history. It is believed that there was not a single living resident left. Made Mboto Gorge look like a score draw.
Tories within a 1% swing of catching up to Labour in the North East! That's unbelievable. Labour lead down from 22% in 2015 to 2% now.
If YouGov is overestimate Labour then the Tories could be ahead in the North East. I can't wrap my head around that, but then they did win the Tees Valley Mayoralty ...
Everyone's a Tory now, canny lad....
Well Momentum have spent the last two years accusing anyone of liking the country, being willing to sing the national anthem, or being to the right of Karl Marx of being a Tory - so the nation is responding by saying OK we're Tories.
Macron did not sing the National Anthem yesterday. His days are numbered.
A result I regret and one that will cause us significant damage, but a vote is a vote and has to be respected. I am surprised there are so many people that do not accept that.
I don't accept the vote....people didn't know what they were voting for...for instance farmers...
Equally I don't accept the Labour leadership vote.....
These two votes have completely ruined my faith that people en masse collectively make the right decision (doesn't apply to Trump who lost obviously)
Switzerland seems to make the right choice more often. Their policies on drugs and assisted dying are enlightened. They dared to have a referendum on a basic income, although the proposed income was too high and so it lost.
Tories within a 1% swing of catching up to Labour in the North East! That's unbelievable. Labour lead down from 22% in 2015 to 2% now.
If YouGov is overestimate Labour then the Tories could be ahead in the North East. I can't wrap my head around that, but then they did win the Tees Valley Mayoralty ...
Everyone's a Tory now, canny lad....
Well Momentum have spent the last two years accusing anyone of liking the country, being willing to sing the national anthem, or being to the right of Karl Marx of being a Tory - so the nation is responding by saying OK we're Tories.
Macron did not sing the National Anthem yesterday. His days are numbered.
I doubt he made a principle out of not singing it because he doesn't respect it ...
Latest literature count here in Ceredigion - Lib dems 5, Plaid 1, Others 0
Been discussi g the lib dem carpet bombing approach with literature. Some if us think that it is starting to have a counter productive effect. They become a bit like Dominos pizza delivery leaflets and people by the 5th or 6th do t read them at all..
one day last week had 3 on the same day - 1 from local candidate, 1 from the Welsh Lib Dems and anotherfrom the National Lib Dems - today's was from National Lib Dems
I like the way depressed lefties like bobajob or defeated europhiles like Peter the Punter are dismissing this election as "crashingly dull" and "unnecessary".
This is how I react after a bitter defeat to the England rugby/cricket teams (I've given up on the football team). I cope by thinking "what a poor display of rugby that was by both sides, very few tries, what was the point" - this helps dull the intense emotional pain.
Fact is, this is a fascinating election. A Labour party led by a quasi-Marxist, a Stalinist, a Trot, and a Maoist is possibly going to be destroyed for a generation, leading - maybe, who knows - to a total realignment in UK politics. And we are electing the government that will detach us from the European Union, the most important task we've faced in generations.
Boring it is not. 2001 was a boring election. 2005 was a boring election.
This is a gripping, important, and very dramatic election.
Agree with the sentiment but the election is boring becuase we know the result already - a huge Tory majority - there will be no staying up overnight (apart from the number geeks) as we've done in previous GEs.
Because of this, betting opportunities are limited IMHO.
Tories within a 1% swing of catching up to Labour in the North East! That's unbelievable. Labour lead down from 22% in 2015 to 2% now.
If YouGov is overestimate Labour then the Tories could be ahead in the North East. I can't wrap my head around that, but then they did win the Tees Valley Mayoralty ...
Everyone's a Tory now, canny lad....
Well Momentum have spent the last two years accusing anyone of liking the country, being willing to sing the national anthem, or being to the right of Karl Marx of being a Tory - so the nation is responding by saying OK we're Tories.
Macron did not sing the National Anthem yesterday. His days are numbered.
I doubt he made a principle out of not singing it because he doesn't respect it ...
Macron's nation is the EU - not France. He played his national anthem when he won. Ode to Joy.
Very hard to say, after Brexit. Turnout was up in the locals.
I think rightwing voters will turn out in force to defeat Corbyn, all non-Nat Scots will come out to stop indyref2, and Leavers will be keen to ensure Brexit by voting TMay.
The one group likely to abstain is Labourites in England and Wales, especially Remainers.
It's not a pretty picture for the Left.
Could Corbyn poll less than Foot as a share of the electorate?
I like the way depressed lefties like bobajob or defeated europhiles like Peter the Punter are dismissing this election as "crashingly dull" and "unnecessary".
This is how I react after a bitter defeat to the England rugby/cricket teams (I've given up on the football team). I cope by thinking "what a poor display of rugby that was by both sides, very few tries, what was the point" - this helps dull the intense emotional pain.
Fact is, this is a fascinating election. A Labour party led by a quasi-Marxist, a Stalinist, a Trot, and a Maoist is possibly going to be destroyed for a generation, leading - maybe, who knows - to a total realignment in UK politics. And we are electing the government that will detach us from the European Union, the most important task we've faced in generations.
Boring it is not. 2001 was a boring election. 2005 was a boring election.
This is a gripping, important, and very dramatic election.
I agree.
Remember all the political pundits telling us we would have to live with lots of smaller political parties and the days of the two big parties dominating everything were past.
They were wrong.
The LDs were all but wiped out. UKIP have wiped themselves out. The SNP have peaked. The Greens are supporting Labour - and are going to have to explain that to voters for the next decade.
A result I regret and one that will cause us significant damage, but a vote is a vote and has to be respected. I am surprised there are so many people that do not accept that.
I was surprised, and disappointed, that the Remainers in Parliament did not unite around keeping the UK in the Single Market.
In the aftermath of the referendum vote Labour MPs were more concerned with their failed putsch, than what would happen to the country, the Lib Dems were chasing their fantasy of aping the SNP and rallying die-hard remainers to their banner, and it looks like only Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke really believed in what they were saying during the referendum campaign.
I wasn't surprised, but I was disappointed, Obitus.
As I understand the way our modern Parliamentary democracy works, we elect representatives to act in our best interests. The majority of these thought Brexit was not a good idea at all. They would have been perfectly entitled to say 'We hear you, but what you are asking us to do is daft, and will be very bad for the country as a whole. If you want this done you will have to elect some new representatives at the next election and they can proceed with the plan in good faith. Meanwhile you can think about it a bit and we will try to persuade you not to go ahead with it.'
That would have been perfectly democratic, responsible and honorable. And it may well have led on to Brexit, but in slightly different circumstances.
They shirked their responsibilities though. They therefore fall in close behind the EU itself in my list of those most culpable for a calamitous decision.
I like the way depressed lefties like bobajob or defeated europhiles like Peter the Punter are dismissing this election as "crashingly dull" and "unnecessary".
This is how I react after a bitter defeat to the England rugby/cricket teams (I've given up on the football team). I cope by thinking "what a poor display of rugby that was by both sides, very few tries, what was the point" - this helps dull the intense emotional pain.
Fact is, this is a fascinating election. A Labour party led by a quasi-Marxist, a Stalinist, a Trot, and a Maoist is possibly going to be destroyed for a generation, leading - maybe, who knows - to a total realignment in UK politics. And we are electing the government that will detach us from the European Union, the most important task we've faced in generations.
Boring it is not. 2001 was a boring election. 2005 was a boring election.
This is a gripping, important, and very dramatic election.
Agree with the sentiment but the election is boring becuase we know the result already - a huge Tory majority - there will be no staying up overnight (apart from the number geeks) as we've done in previous GEs.
Because of this, betting opportunities are limited IMHO.
Are you kidding me? it will be unmissable viewing watching talking head after talking head conduct a live autopsy on Labour!
It's not binary. I don't rate May, I think she is going to disappoint millions and millions of voters over the coming years and I will not vote for her. But there is no way on God's earth I am going to vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
That's my point though. Actually voting for May is a still a step too far for you.
I am agreeing with you. She is an awful PM. However, I am not going to vote Corbyn to get rid of her. I expect there are going to be a lot like me. And it will hurt Labour where it matters most, because for reason I cannot see - but which clearly exist - May is getting positive votes, not just anti-Corbyn ones.
I'm voting Green.....I know I should vote for Clive Lewis because it is tight here and he is a Remainer, but the Corbyn factor makes it utterly impossible for me to vote Labour.
The reason why I despise Corbyn so much isn't to do with his politics.....it is the fact that like his predecessors, the guy has put his personal ambition and vanity before the party....
One thing I am noticing from these regional polls. The Lib Dems are doing better than previously assumed. Have not resulted in too many extra seats though.
CON gain Norfolk North, LD gain Cambridge?
Yes. I don't know if that would happen in reality.
What's a rule of thumb for a recount? How close does it have to be?
If (OK big if, but still) the tories get 80% of UKIP votes from 2015 + a 10% direct Lab/Con swing in the NE, then Houghton and Sunderland South might just go TCTC
That would screw their "first declaration" ambitions and make for a somewhat explosive start to the night....
If any of the Sunderland seats gets into recount territory we're looking at a phenomenal landslide.
Houghton & Sunderland South 33.6% majority Sunderland Central 26.8% majority Washington & Sunderland West 35.3% majority.
One thing I am noticing from these regional polls. The Lib Dems are doing better than previously assumed. Have not resulted in too many extra seats though.
CON gain Norfolk North, LD gain Cambridge?
Yes. I don't know if that would happen in reality.
No reason it couldn't. The Lib Dem and Labour shares are both slightly up and slightly down respectively & they're pretty different seats.
Been following May's Facebook Q&A with Peston. Seems to be going quite well and is a decent rebuttal to the claim that she's not engaging with the public. The Tories do seem to be way ahead of Labour in their use of social media.
This ridiculous outpouring of grief over White Hart Lane is just that, ridiculous. The new ground is located at... the same place as WHITE HART LANE (which is not even on White Hart Lane, N17, and never has been). The new stadium will probably be known to all except Sky Sports as... WHITE HART LANE given the fact that it is in the SAME place. The new ground covers part of the plot occupied by THE OLD GROUND for crying out loud.
White Hart Lane (old version) has in any case gone through so many refurbs and overhauls over the years it's nothing like White Hart Lane (old, old version) anyway!!
A result I regret and one that will cause us significant damage, but a vote is a vote and has to be respected. I am surprised there are so many people that do not accept that.
I was surprised, and disappointed, that the Remainers in Parliament did not unite around keeping the UK in the Single Market.
In the aftermath of the referendum vote Labour MPs were more concerned with their failed putsch, than what would happen to the country, the Lib Dems were chasing their fantasy of aping the SNP and rallying die-hard remainers to their banner, and it looks like only Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke really believed in what they were saying during the referendum campaign.
I wasn't surprised, but I was disappointed, Obitus.
As I understand the way our modern Parliamentary democracy works, we elect representatives to act in our best interests. The majority of these thought Brexit was not a good idea at all. They would have been perfectly entitled to say 'We hear you, but what you are asking us to do is daft, and will be very bad for the country as a whole. If you want this done you will have to elect some new representatives at the next election and they can proceed with the plan in good faith. Meanwhile you can think about it a bit and we will try to persuade you not to go ahead with it.'
That would have been perfectly democratic, responsible and honorable. And it may well have led on to Brexit, but in slightly different circumstances.
They shirked their responsibilities though. They therefore fall in close behind the EU itself in my list of those most culpable for a calamitous decision.
I'm not convinced whatsoever that a majority of Parliament "thought that Brexit was not a good idea at all" after the referendum.
Yes a majority thought on balance remaining was better pre-referendum, but the referendum changed things. A very large proportion of Tories were genuinely torn on this matter and many of them came down on the side of Remain on either the balance of probabilities or loyalty to Cameron and so on. Post-referendum that changed things, in a choice between "fight to the death for Remain" or "accept the will of the people and move on" there was a majority for the latter.
People in Parliament and across the nation just didn't care enough about Remaining. "Re-Leavers" don't just exist in the country but in Parliament too and for good reason so there was a majority for leaving at the end of the day and quite rightly too.
I like the way depressed lefties like bobajob or defeated europhiles like Peter the Punter are dismissing this election as "crashingly dull" and "unnecessary".
This is how I react after a bitter defeat to the England rugby/cricket teams (I've given up on the football team). I cope by thinking "what a poor display of rugby that was by both sides, very few tries, what was the point" - this helps dull the intense emotional pain.
Fact is, this is a fascinating election. A Labour party led by a quasi-Marxist, a Stalinist, a Trot, and a Maoist is possibly going to be destroyed for a generation, leading - maybe, who knows - to a total realignment in UK politics. And we are electing the government that will detach us from the European Union, the most important task we've faced in generations.
Boring it is not. 2001 was a boring election. 2005 was a boring election.
This is a gripping, important, and very dramatic election.
From "known right-winger" to "depressed leftie" in the space of a month according to you. Anyway, I am right and you are wrong, as usual, which is the main thing.
I like the way depressed lefties like bobajob or defeated europhiles like Peter the Punter are dismissing this election as "crashingly dull" and "unnecessary".
This is how I react after a bitter defeat to the England rugby/cricket teams (I've given up on the football team). I cope by thinking "what a poor display of rugby that was by both sides, very few tries, what was the point" - this helps dull the intense emotional pain.
Fact is, this is a fascinating election. A Labour party led by a quasi-Marxist, a Stalinist, a Trot, and a Maoist is possibly going to be destroyed for a generation, leading - maybe, who knows - to a total realignment in UK politics. And we are electing the government that will detach us from the European Union, the most important task we've faced in generations.
Boring it is not. 2001 was a boring election. 2005 was a boring election.
This is a gripping, important, and very dramatic election.
Agree with the sentiment but the election is boring becuase we know the result already - a huge Tory majority - there will be no staying up overnight (apart from the number geeks) as we've done in previous GEs.
Because of this, betting opportunities are limited IMHO.
Are you kidding me? it will be unmissable viewing watching talking head after talking head conduct a live autopsy on Labour!
Thus far, GE2017 has been hilarious, tragic, baffling and more entertaining than the previous three combined. Election night will be the grand finale and for me at least, unmissable.
This ridiculous outpouring of grief over White Hart Lane is just that, ridiculous. The new ground is located at... the same place as WHITE HART LANE (which is not even on White Hart Lane, N17, and never has been). The new stadium will probably be known to all except Sky Sports as... WHITE HART LANE given the fact that it is in the SAME place. The new ground covers part of the plot occupied by THE OLD GROUND for crying out loud.
White Hart Lane (old version) has in any case gone through so many refurbs and overhauls over the years it's nothing like White Hart Lane (old, old version) anyway!!
partly correct - it'll be fine once the new stadium is completed I'm sure
A result I regret and one that will cause us significant damage, but a vote is a vote and has to be respected. I am surprised there are so many people that do not accept that.
I was surprised, and disappointed, that the Remainers in Parliament did not unite around keeping the UK in the Single Market.
In the aftermath of the referendum vote Labour MPs were more concerned with their failed putsch, than what would happen to the country, the Lib Dems were chasing their fantasy of aping the SNP and rallying die-hard remainers to their banner, and it looks like only Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke really believed in what they were saying during the referendum campaign.
I wasn't surprised, but I was disappointed, Obitus.
As I understand the way our modern Parliamentary democracy works, we elect representatives to act in our best interests. The majority of these thought Brexit was not a good idea at all. They would have been perfectly entitled to say 'We hear you, but what you are asking us to do is daft, and will be very bad for the country as a whole. If you want this done you will have to elect some new representatives at the next election and they can proceed with the plan in good faith. Meanwhile you can think about it a bit and we will try to persuade you not to go ahead with it.'
That would have been perfectly democratic, responsible and honorable. And it may well have led on to Brexit, but in slightly different circumstances.
They shirked their responsibilities though. They therefore fall in close behind the EU itself in my list of those most culpable for a calamitous decision.
That is absolute rubbish! There is no way the British people could have elected a majority of MP's to vote for Brexit. Even if they did, the ECJ would have probably ruled against it. Only by a plebiscite could the will of the people be heard. A GE covers a multitude of subjects, you couldn't have a single issue election. Even this one has a lot of domestic elements on the agenda
I can't see it, Labour held onto pretty much all the wards the Tories need to take in the locals. One thing though, he has way less of a personal vote than he thinks he does in my opinion.
I'm too close geographically to the seat to bet against him, I wouldn't advise the 1-4 generally available on Skinner mind.
The only place in the country (London is entirely demographic related) where the Labour Party is akin to a football team is Merseyside.
Wirral South will be interesting and could well be Labour's deepest hold I reckon. Wirral West is probably too marginal to escape the general tide.
Wirral West is an odd one. The Caldy/West Kirby/Hoylake end would be comfortably Tory, but there is a huge council estate (The Woodchurch) in the constituency which is solid Labour. Last time you had a massive GOTV effort from the whole Labour apparatus on Merseyside to get the Labour vote out on the Woodchurch as the seat was a key marginal and they hated Esther McVey. Can't see that happening this time, and can imagine Corbyn not going down well at all in the leafier parts of the constituency.
A result I regret and one that will cause us significant damage, but a vote is a vote and has to be respected. I am surprised there are so many people that do not accept that.
I was surprised, and disappointed, that the Remainers in Parliament did not unite around keeping the UK in the Single Market.
In the aftermath of the referendum vote Labour MPs were more concerned with their failed putsch, than what would happen to the country, the Lib Dems were chasing their fantasy of aping the SNP and rallying die-hard remainers to their banner, and it looks like only Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke really believed in what they were saying during the referendum campaign.
I wasn't surprised, but I was disappointed, Obitus.
As I understand the way our modern Parliamentary democracy works, we elect representatives to act in our best interests. The majority of these thought Brexit was not a good idea at all. They would have been perfectly entitled to say 'We hear you, but what you are asking us to do is daft, and will be very bad for the country as a whole. If you want this done you will have to elect some new representatives at the next election and they can proceed with the plan in good faith. Meanwhile you can think about it a bit and we will try to persuade you not to go ahead with it.'
That would have been perfectly democratic, responsible and honorable. And it may well have led on to Brexit, but in slightly different circumstances.
They shirked their responsibilities though. They therefore fall in close behind the EU itself in my list of those most culpable for a calamitous decision.
I blame Ed Miliband...if he hadn't run for Labour leader, David would have won and now be PM....
A result I regret and one that will cause us significant damage, but a vote is a vote and has to be respected. I am surprised there are so many people that do not accept that.
I don't accept the vote....people didn't know what they were voting for...for instance farmers...
Equally I don't accept the Labour leadership vote.....
These two votes have completely ruined my faith that people en masse collectively make the right decision (doesn't apply to Trump who lost obviously)
I am a farmer and I am pretty sure I personally know more farmers than you have ever met. Without exception we did know what we were voting for, even if you didn't. I could do a non-partisan thread on what Brexit means for agriculture at some time if anyone is interested.
Yes a majority thought on balance remaining was better pre-referendum, but the referendum changed things. A very large proportion of Tories were genuinely torn on this matter and many of them came down on the side of Remain on either the balance of probabilities or loyalty to Cameron and so on. Post-referendum that changed things, in a choice between "fight to the death for Remain" or "accept the will of the people and move on" there was a majority for the latter.
Pre-referendum they thought remaining was better for the country
Post -referendum they thought leaving was better for their careers
Tories within a 1% swing of catching up to Labour in the North East! That's unbelievable. Labour lead down from 22% in 2015 to 2% now.
If YouGov is overestimate Labour then the Tories could be ahead in the North East. I can't wrap my head around that, but then they did win the Tees Valley Mayoralty ...
Everyone's a Tory now, canny lad....
Well Momentum have spent the last two years accusing anyone of liking the country, being willing to sing the national anthem, or being to the right of Karl Marx of being a Tory - so the nation is responding by saying OK we're Tories.
Macron did not sing the National Anthem yesterday. His days are numbered.
I doubt he made a principle out of not singing it because he doesn't respect it ...
Macron's nation is the EU - not France. He played his national anthem when he won. Ode to Joy.
US Presidents also don't sing. I don't think our PMs did either. Because our press has to write something about Corbyn, they picked on this. I am sure you will find films of Cameron, Thatcher not singing.
A result I regret and one that will cause us significant damage, but a vote is a vote and has to be respected. I am surprised there are so many people that do not accept that.
I was surprised, and disappointed, that the Remainers in Parliament did not unite around keeping the UK in the Single Market.
In the aftermath of the referendum vote Labour MPs were more concerned with their failed putsch, than what would happen to the country, the Lib Dems were chasing their fantasy of aping the SNP and rallying die-hard remainers to their banner, and it looks like only Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke really believed in what they were saying during the referendum campaign.
I wasn't surprised, but I was disappointed, Obitus.
As I understand the way our modern Parliamentary democracy works, we elect representatives to act in our best interests. The majority of these thought Brexit was not a good idea at all. They would have been perfectly entitled to say 'We hear you, but what you are asking us to do is daft, and will be very bad for the country as a whole. If you want this done you will have to elect some new representatives at the next election and they can proceed with the plan in good faith. Meanwhile you can think about it a bit and we will try to persuade you not to go ahead with it.'
That would have been perfectly democratic, responsible and honorable. And it may well have led on to Brexit, but in slightly different circumstances.
They shirked their responsibilities though. They therefore fall in close behind the EU itself in my list of those most culpable for a calamitous decision.
I don't think it would in the modern day be feasible to have a referendum on a constitutional issue which gave a close but clear result and for elected representatives to ignore the vote on the grounds that they know better. If a majority of MPs felt that they could not implement the wishes of the people as expressed, then the only honourable approach would have been to put it to a General Election.
But in reality, a majority of those MPs who were against Brexit decided to respect the wishes of the people. My guess is that this coming election will amply demonstrate why.
I like the way depressed lefties like bobajob or defeated europhiles like Peter the Punter are dismissing this election as "crashingly dull" and "unnecessary".
This is how I react after a bitter defeat to the England rugby/cricket teams (I've given up on the football team). I cope by thinking "what a poor display of rugby that was by both sides, very few tries, what was the point" - this helps dull the intense emotional pain.
Fact is, this is a fascinating election. A Labour party led by a quasi-Marxist, a Stalinist, a Trot, and a Maoist is possibly going to be destroyed for a generation, leading - maybe, who knows - to a total realignment in UK politics. And we are electing the government that will detach us from the European Union, the most important task we've faced in generations.
Boring it is not. 2001 was a boring election. 2005 was a boring election.
This is a gripping, important, and very dramatic election.
Agree with the sentiment but the election is boring becuase we know the result already - a huge Tory majority - there will be no staying up overnight (apart from the number geeks) as we've done in previous GEs.
Because of this, betting opportunities are limited IMHO.
I agree that this election is boring in many ways because it's a forgone conclusion in favour of the party already in office (so no removal trucks etc). That doesn't mean to say it's not fun for Tories - of course it is - but it's not a dramatic one to say the least.
I don't agree on lack of betting opportunities, however. There are plenty of opportunities in individual seats, and plenty of room for different views. You may reasonably think the Tory majority will be merely comfortable, or may think it'll be blow-out big. You may think UKIP not standing in particular will help the blues a lot, or that it will fuel anti-right tactical voting. You may think anti-Corbyn Labour MPs will be punished for disloyalty, or that they will weather the storm better. You may think the picture will be very different in Remain seats, or may not. You may think reduced Lib Dem toxicity will bring them back some seats, or that they will go backwards in their more Leave seats. And you may read a lot into the very recent local elections, or may not.
These variable mean that, depending on your assumptions, you might very well find great value and interest in constituency markets.
I can't see it, Labour held onto pretty much all the wards the Tories need to take in the locals. One thing though, he has way less of a personal vote than he thinks he does in my opinion.
I'm too close geographically to the seat to bet against him, I wouldn't advise the 1-4 generally available on Skinner mind.
Oh it will still be worth staying up to listen to him raging if his majority is slashed
I am a farmer and I am pretty sure I personally know more farmers than you have ever met. Without exception we did know what we were voting for, even if you didn't. I could do a non-partisan thread on what Brexit means for agriculture at some time if anyone is interested.
Con : 390 Lab : 179 LD : 12 GRN : 1 SNP : 47 PC : 3
Maj: 130
Do you have that broken down seat by seat ? (Obviously far too long to post here)
Yes.
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 139 Bolton North East 802 Bury South 744 Cardiff South and Penarth 12 Cardiff West 218 Enfield North 759 Hove 853 Hyndburn 746 Newport East 912 Scunthorpe 560 Sedgefield 900 Stoke-on-Trent North 576 Wirral South 421
These are the Labour losses with a majority less than 1000. BTW, Con is up 1. I counted Cardiff South as Labour.
On the subject of the LDs, these suggest that there is no chance that the LDs will make any kind of recovery in the South West. (Which will surprise no one.)
But they are very encouraging for the LDs in the South East and London. In both cases, they are getting approximately one and a half votes in 2017 for every vote they got in 2015.
Now, we all know that proportional swing doesn't work. But applying simple UNS gives the LDs Twickenham (which I think they will), Lewes (won't), Cambridge (will), Southwark (suspect not) and Kingston (possibly).
A result I regret and one that will cause us significant damage, but a vote is a vote and has to be respected. I am surprised there are so many people that do not accept that.
I don't accept the vote....people didn't know what they were voting for...for instance farmers...
Equally I don't accept the Labour leadership vote.....
These two votes have completely ruined my faith that people en masse collectively make the right decision (doesn't apply to Trump who lost obviously)
I am a farmer and I am pretty sure I personally know more farmers than you have ever met. Without exception we did know what we were voting for, even if you didn't. I could do a non-partisan thread on what Brexit means for agriculture at some time if anyone is interested.
But in reality, a majority of those MPs who were against Brexit decided to respect the wishes of the people. My guess is that this coming election will amply demonstrate why.
Again, going with "popular opinion" is the easy career option, not necessarily the National Interest option
A result I regret and one that will cause us significant damage, but a vote is a vote and has to be respected. I am surprised there are so many people that do not accept that.
I was surprised, and disappointed, that the Remainers in Parliament did not unite around keeping the UK in the Single Market.
In the aftermath of the referendum vote Labour MPs were more concerned with their failed putsch, than what would happen to the country, the Lib Dems were chasing their fantasy of aping the SNP and rallying die-hard remainers to their banner, and it looks like only Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke really believed in what they were saying during the referendum campaign.
I wasn't surprised, but I was disappointed, Obitus.
As I understand the way our modern Parliamentary democracy works, we elect representatives to act in our best interests. The majority of these thought Brexit was not a good idea at all. They would have been perfectly entitled to say 'We hear you, but what you are asking us to do is daft, and will be very bad for the country as a whole. If you want this done you will have to elect some new representatives at the next election and they can proceed with the plan in good faith. Meanwhile you can think about it a bit and we will try to persuade you not to go ahead with it.'
That would have been perfectly democratic, responsible and honorable. And it may well have led on to Brexit, but in slightly different circumstances.
They shirked their responsibilities though. They therefore fall in close behind the EU itself in my list of those most culpable for a calamitous decision.
I blame Ed Miliband...if he hadn't run for Labour leader, David would have won and now be PM....
Ed Miliband also gave us Corbyn too......
It's actually Len McCluskey - he delivered the leadership to EdM, when members voted for David; he caused the Falkirk debacle, leading to the change in the leadership election rules; and he has kept Corbyn alive for the last 11 months. Without Champagne Len things would be very, very different. He's done well for himself through all this time, of course.
Tories within a 1% swing of catching up to Labour in the North East! That's unbelievable. Labour lead down from 22% in 2015 to 2% now.
If YouGov is overestimate Labour then the Tories could be ahead in the North East. I can't wrap my head around that, but then they did win the Tees Valley Mayoralty ...
Everyone's a Tory now, canny lad....
Well Momentum have spent the last two years accusing anyone of liking the country, being willing to sing the national anthem, or being to the right of Karl Marx of being a Tory - so the nation is responding by saying OK we're Tories.
Macron did not sing the National Anthem yesterday. His days are numbered.
I doubt he made a principle out of not singing it because he doesn't respect it ...
Macron's nation is the EU - not France. He played his national anthem when he won. Ode to Joy.
I've met Macron, and I think he's far from a complete EUphile. He's a genuine French nationalist who sees the EU as a tool to increase France's influence on the world. He's also one of the few people I've ever met at a high level who's willing to openly change his mind mid-meeting. (A character trait that I admire, but is usually political suicide.)
I think the problems of France will likely defeat him, as they have so many others. But I would avoid simplistic characterization of him. Macron is extremely bright and very economically dry.
I like the way depressed lefties like bobajob or defeated europhiles like Peter the Punter are dismissing this election as "crashingly dull" and "unnecessary".
This is how I react after a bitter defeat to the England rugby/cricket teams (I've given up on the football team). I cope by thinking "what a poor display of rugby that was by both sides, very few tries, what was the point" - this helps dull the intense emotional pain.
Fact is, this is a fascinating election. A Labour party led by a quasi-Marxist, a Stalinist, a Trot, and a Maoist is possibly going to be destroyed for a generation, leading - maybe, who knows - to a total realignment in UK politics. And we are electing the government that will detach us from the European Union, the most important task we've faced in generations.
Boring it is not. 2001 was a boring election. 2005 was a boring election.
This is a gripping, important, and very dramatic election.
It's not dull for me, Sean, because I'm a politics junkie, but outside PB I detect a distinct lack of interest amongst the wider public. Maybe it's different where you live, but around here there's definitely a sense of 'oh no, not again.'
As for my pain, it's not just emotional. It's real, it's economic, it has affected my family. We'll cope OK but please don't compare it to the loss of some sporting fixture. It's our lives, our futures, our economic security.
Perhaps if we could see a little upside we might not mind so much. Maybe one day our losses may appear trivial and we'll rejoice in the benefits of leaving the EU, but right now if Brexit is a blessing in disguise, it appears to be very well disguised indeed.
Mr. Punter, if we'd voted to leave and the Commons voted we remain, that would've been in accordance with the law but would've led to a very, very bad situation indeed. Asking people their opinion then telling them they got it wrong and you're ignoring them is a recipe for civil unrest and political turmoil.
What's a rule of thumb for a recount? How close does it have to be?
If (OK big if, but still) the tories get 80% of UKIP votes from 2015 + a 10% direct Lab/Con swing in the NE, then Houghton and Sunderland South might just go TCTC
That would screw their "first declaration" ambitions and make for a somewhat explosive start to the night....
I can't see Sunderland being close, even as a Leave area, and even in this election.
There's no real rule of thumb on recounts. Very dependent on the Returning Officer's discretion. I've seen them given to determine a narrowly lost deposit... but that's unusual.
It may not need to be wildly close to screw up the first declaration market, though. Even at a couple of thousand deficit, I'd be tempted as an agent to ask for a bundle recount (i.e. checking no bundles of votes have gone in the wrong pile rather than a full recount). That'd be very quick, but may well screw the timings in a race to be first.
Tories within a 1% swing of catching up to Labour in the North East! That's unbelievable. Labour lead down from 22% in 2015 to 2% now.
If YouGov is overestimate Labour then the Tories could be ahead in the North East. I can't wrap my head around that, but then they did win the Tees Valley Mayoralty ...
Everyone's a Tory now, canny lad....
Well Momentum have spent the last two years accusing anyone of liking the country, being willing to sing the national anthem, or being to the right of Karl Marx of being a Tory - so the nation is responding by saying OK we're Tories.
Macron did not sing the National Anthem yesterday. His days are numbered.
I doubt he made a principle out of not singing it because he doesn't respect it ...
Macron's nation is the EU - not France. He played his national anthem when he won. Ode to Joy.
US Presidents also don't sing. I don't think our PMs did either. Because our press has to write something about Corbyn, they picked on this. I am sure you will find films of Cameron, Thatcher not singing.
Erm...PMs are not inaugurated and there is no inauguration ceremony involving the national anthem. The US inauguration does not involve the Stars and Stripes. France's inauguration does involve the Marseillaise. So decidedely odd if Macron chose not to sing along.
This ridiculous outpouring of grief over White Hart Lane is just that, ridiculous. The new ground is located at... the same place as WHITE HART LANE (which is not even on White Hart Lane, N17, and never has been). The new stadium will probably be known to all except Sky Sports as... WHITE HART LANE given the fact that it is in the SAME place. The new ground covers part of the plot occupied by THE OLD GROUND for crying out loud.
White Hart Lane (old version) has in any case gone through so many refurbs and overhauls over the years it's nothing like White Hart Lane (old, old version) anyway!!
I surprised myself by shedding a tear yesterday. The stadium changed so much, but it was always there. So many memories. I could not help thinking of my dear old Dad, who went when he was a kid and then a young man, and who took me to my first game in 1972 when I was eight. I then took my two boys to games. And it all looked different, but it was the same unbroken line. Now it's been broken. It's not a wailing grief, but if you're a Spurs supporter from a Spurs supporting family something that was a part of you has gone.
Comments
OTOH, this is probably a message from Labour that's music to the Conservatives' ears.
Wirral South will be interesting and could well be Labour's deepest hold I reckon. Wirral West is probably too marginal to escape the general tide.
Clive Lewis will hold easily but one gets the sense there's some vitriol against Jeremy that's surprising Labour door knockers.
It is usually fun the way you catch them, but a fecking pain to get rid of.
Indeed. Crashingly dull and entirely unnecessary. You can see why the public prefer stories about Avril Lavigne failing to be actually alive.
I think this line is rapidly becoming wishful thinking. I don't think peple are just going to turn out to vote Labour because it doesn't matter. They are more likely to abstain than do that.
That Labour squad in full:
Left Wing - Jeremy "The Saviour" Corbyn
Left Wing - Diane "The Black Panter" Abbot
Left Wing - John "Psycho" McDonnell
Left Wing - Barry "Lady" Gardener
Left Wing - Rebecca "Long Drop" Long-Bailey
Left Wing - Baroness "Arty-farty" Chakrabarti
Left Wing - Emily "Lady" Thornberry
Left Wing - Gordon "The Incredible Sulk" Brown
Right Wing - Tom "Who ate all the pies?" Watson
Sweeper - John "Trick-shot" Trickett
Goalkeeper - Lisa "That'll Come in" Nandy
Subs bench: Ed "Golden" Balls
Chuka "Who are yer? Who are yer?" Umunna
Yvette "Snowflake" Cooper
Coach: Karl Marx
You're goin' bust in the mornin',
You're going' bust in the mornin'
Bust in the morning'......
National swing: C 52, Lab 3
Regional swing: C 52, Lab 3
Still no LD. In fact, 4% increase in Labour vote since GE2015.
The Fourth Crusade reference is in line (although Eastern) with my brilliant list of Western Roman military defeats, to map against Labour's seat performance.
Equally I don't accept the Labour leadership vote.....
These two votes have completely ruined my faith that people en masse collectively make the right decision (doesn't apply to Trump who lost obviously)
https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/864105487289257985
Or to stop using the analogy if Labour's own partisans (like Southam) won't back them and no swing voters do either then the floor is a long way down.
Could well be two Labour holds. Nowt else for Labour activists to go to for miles around.
https://twitter.com/douglaskmurray/status/864108725698736129
Same as previous poll: C 20, Lab 16, LD 1, PC 3
I think it is the same one.
Are there any good markets on GE turnout? Couldn't see anything on Betfair...
Same as previous poll: C 8, Lab 1, LD 3, SNP 47
It is the same one.
You can feel this happening in Birmingham; I expect Rob Pocock to do relatively well in Sutton, and the Tories will probably fall to third in Hall Green. Labour might hold on in Edgbaston (it's a seat of two halves, one might say) but they are surely going to lose Northfield and Erdington.
I guess Douglas Murray's book will sell well though as Europe 'dieing' is what alot of people want to hear...
Result:
Con : 390
Lab : 179
LD : 12
GRN : 1
SNP : 47
PC : 3
Maj: 130
Maybe they've had practice though.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/15/general-election-2017-may-workers-rights-corbyn-nhs-politics-live
Because of this, betting opportunities are limited IMHO.
it's a bit tender.
Remember all the political pundits telling us we would have to live with lots of smaller political parties and the days of the two big parties dominating everything were past.
They were wrong.
The LDs were all but wiped out.
UKIP have wiped themselves out.
The SNP have peaked.
The Greens are supporting Labour - and are going to have to explain that to voters for the next decade.
The pundits were wrong.
As I understand the way our modern Parliamentary democracy works, we elect representatives to act in our best interests. The majority of these thought Brexit was not a good idea at all. They would have been perfectly entitled to say 'We hear you, but what you are asking us to do is daft, and will be very bad for the country as a whole. If you want this done you will have to elect some new representatives at the next election and they can proceed with the plan in good faith. Meanwhile you can think about it a bit and we will try to persuade you not to go ahead with it.'
That would have been perfectly democratic, responsible and honorable. And it may well have led on to Brexit, but in slightly different circumstances.
They shirked their responsibilities though. They therefore fall in close behind the EU itself in my list of those most culpable for a calamitous decision.
It's not binary. I don't rate May, I think she is going to disappoint millions and millions of voters over the coming years and I will not vote for her. But there is no way on God's earth I am going to vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
That's my point though. Actually voting for May is a still a step too far for you.
I am agreeing with you. She is an awful PM. However, I am not going to vote Corbyn to get rid of her. I expect there are going to be a lot like me. And it will hurt Labour where it matters most, because for reason I cannot see - but which clearly exist - May is getting positive votes, not just anti-Corbyn ones.
@SO
May also benefits from not being David Cameron.
I'm voting Green.....I know I should vote for Clive Lewis because it is tight here and he is a Remainer, but the Corbyn factor makes it utterly impossible for me to vote Labour.
The reason why I despise Corbyn so much isn't to do with his politics.....it is the fact that like his predecessors, the guy has put his personal ambition and vanity before the party....
Houghton & Sunderland South 33.6% majority
Sunderland Central 26.8% majority
Washington & Sunderland West 35.3% majority.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/syrian-troops-advancing-towards-us-british-special-forces/
White Hart Lane (old version) has in any case gone through so many refurbs and overhauls over the years it's nothing like White Hart Lane (old, old version) anyway!!
Note: UKIP were due to field Barry William Elliot as a candidate, but the nomination was withdrawn
GE 2015:
Labour Ronnie Campbell 17,813 46.3 +1.8
UKIP Barry Elliott 8,584 22.3 +18.0
Conservative Greg Munro 8,346 21.7 +5.1
Yes a majority thought on balance remaining was better pre-referendum, but the referendum changed things. A very large proportion of Tories were genuinely torn on this matter and many of them came down on the side of Remain on either the balance of probabilities or loyalty to Cameron and so on. Post-referendum that changed things, in a choice between "fight to the death for Remain" or "accept the will of the people and move on" there was a majority for the latter.
People in Parliament and across the nation just didn't care enough about Remaining. "Re-Leavers" don't just exist in the country but in Parliament too and for good reason so there was a majority for leaving at the end of the day and quite rightly too.
I'm too close geographically to the seat to bet against him, I wouldn't advise the 1-4 generally available on Skinner mind.
Ed Miliband also gave us Corbyn too......
Post -referendum they thought leaving was better for their careers
But in reality, a majority of those MPs who were against Brexit decided to respect the wishes of the people. My guess is that this coming election will amply demonstrate why.
I don't agree on lack of betting opportunities, however. There are plenty of opportunities in individual seats, and plenty of room for different views. You may reasonably think the Tory majority will be merely comfortable, or may think it'll be blow-out big. You may think UKIP not standing in particular will help the blues a lot, or that it will fuel anti-right tactical voting. You may think anti-Corbyn Labour MPs will be punished for disloyalty, or that they will weather the storm better. You may think the picture will be very different in Remain seats, or may not. You may think reduced Lib Dem toxicity will bring them back some seats, or that they will go backwards in their more Leave seats. And you may read a lot into the very recent local elections, or may not.
These variable mean that, depending on your assumptions, you might very well find great value and interest in constituency markets.
https://twitter.com/scottishsun/status/864110625466847232
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 139
Bolton North East 802
Bury South 744
Cardiff South and Penarth 12
Cardiff West 218
Enfield North 759
Hove 853
Hyndburn 746
Newport East 912
Scunthorpe 560
Sedgefield 900
Stoke-on-Trent North 576
Wirral South 421
These are the Labour losses with a majority less than 1000.
BTW, Con is up 1. I counted Cardiff South as Labour.
But they are very encouraging for the LDs in the South East and London. In both cases, they are getting approximately one and a half votes in 2017 for every vote they got in 2015.
Now, we all know that proportional swing doesn't work. But applying simple UNS gives the LDs Twickenham (which I think they will), Lewes (won't), Cambridge (will), Southwark (suspect not) and Kingston (possibly).
"She [May] says that if she wins the election she intends to see her five-year term out until the end."
Taken on face value, we should all pile on 2022 as date of next GE (those who bet on 2020 for this GE might recoup some of their losses)
(From Face-ache thingy)
I think the problems of France will likely defeat him, as they have so many others. But I would avoid simplistic characterization of him. Macron is extremely bright and very economically dry.
As for my pain, it's not just emotional. It's real, it's economic, it has affected my family. We'll cope OK but please don't compare it to the loss of some sporting fixture. It's our lives, our futures, our economic security.
Perhaps if we could see a little upside we might not mind so much. Maybe one day our losses may appear trivial and we'll rejoice in the benefits of leaving the EU, but right now if Brexit is a blessing in disguise, it appears to be very well disguised indeed.
There's no real rule of thumb on recounts. Very dependent on the Returning Officer's discretion. I've seen them given to determine a narrowly lost deposit... but that's unusual.
It may not need to be wildly close to screw up the first declaration market, though. Even at a couple of thousand deficit, I'd be tempted as an agent to ask for a bundle recount (i.e. checking no bundles of votes have gone in the wrong pile rather than a full recount). That'd be very quick, but may well screw the timings in a race to be first.