politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Backing Labour to win the popular vote on June 8th
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Their theory was (I think) that by letting Labour make the initial running, Corbyn would implode and they could then step in and pick up the pieces. That hasn't happened. They will obviously try the IRA/Hamas stuff big time, but I think that's factored in already - sure, people don't necessarily know exactly who said what in 1974 or whatever, but they've got the general idea. Corbyn was as a backbencher willing to meet people on the margins and make friendly comments - that bothers voters or it doesn't, but it's not news.DavidL said:
They hardly did anything in the first 3 weeks. At some point they will inevitably join in this election campaign thing. What will happen then I wonder?
Personally, I found as an MP that one ends up being photographed with all kinds of people unless one's incredibly careful (which backbenchers usually aren't) - people come to see you on a delegation, or meet you at a reception where photographers are all over the place, and yesterday's friends or at least polite partners in joint efforts turn out to be today's enemies and vice versa. Assad is a very good example, and Sinn Fein is too. I met someone from the British Association for Shooting and Conservation two weeks ago and said polite things about him - that doesn't make me a country sports fan.
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If you don't like releaver Ashcroft calls the group accepters.Ishmael_Z said:
I'm a Re-Leaver (what a silly, contrived and misleading name btw). I am amazed that otherwise lucid Remain voters can take any other view, and yet call themselves believers in democracy. I think they think: let's retrospectively disenfranchise all Leave voters for being thick proles, and once you've done that there's a clear democratic mandate for Remain. Yet they think the Leavers are the fascists.FF43 said:
On that definition I'm a Re-Leaver. A democratic, if poorly informed, decision was taken. Now it's questions of how that decision is implemented with the least damage possible and where we go from here in building new relationships with the EU and the rest of the world. Questions that few people are giving much thought to, including most worryingly, Theresa May.CarlottaVance said:On the question of Brexit, the electorate can be broken down into three core groups instead of two: the Hard Leavers who want out of the EU (45 per cent); the Hard Remainers who still want to try to stop Brexit (22 per cent); and the Re-Leavers (23 per cent) — those who voted to Remain last summer but think that the government now has a duty to leave.
The emergence of this latter group means that when the parties are discussing Brexit, they should not think in terms of two pools of voters split almost down the middle. Instead, there is a big lake made up of Leave and Re-Leave voters and a much smaller Remain pond. This means that the Conservatives and UK Independence party are fishing among 68 per cent of voters, while Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Greens and nationalists are battling for just 22 per cent of the electorate.
https://amp.ft.com/content/76037a34-36ef-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa30 -
LOL, what about all those patients being killed the policy she was moaning about a few weeks ago. Has she abandoned them.calum said:SCON's first policy - free prescriptions !
https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/8636828372324597770 -
It was offered way too soon.SouthamObserver said:
That precipitous state visit invitation is looking more ill-considered by the day. Hopefully, it can be put off until well into next year, when maybe Trump will no longer be around. We will gain absolutely nothing from him coming.JosiasJessop said:Trump gets increasingly ridiculous:
http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a26478/donald-trump-emals-steam-catapult-aircraft-carrier/0 -
Accepting the possibility the polls might be right? This is 2017, sir.AlastairMeeks said:
Labour supporters need to accept the possibility of and then work through the implications of the pollsters having the Conservative figure about right. And Conservative supporters need to accept the possibility of and then work through the implications of the pollsters having the Labour figure about right. Neither seems to have done this yet.MaxPB said:
I honestly believe that polls are going to to struggle to find Lab -> Con switchers this time, normally they are easy to identify in the centre ground, this time because of the PM's pitch they are coming from the working classes, a group which is notoriously difficult to poll accurately.AlastairMeeks said:Martin Boon of ICM was on Twitter last night, as TSE noted, and if ICM have a poll imminent it certainly isn't showing Labour at 30%. It's rare to see a pollster so openly sceptical about rivals' findings.
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By the way, if anyone's interested, I'll be taking up a new job next month as Head of Policy for the non-partisan Compassion in World Farming., who work to oppose factory farming. I think that will mark my definitive retirement from party politics, though I expect I'll still comment as a detached observer. It's been fun!0
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3.16pm on Saturday??Theuniondivvie said:The outbreak of Tory councillors deleting their twitter & FB accounts seems to have spread from Scotland to England.
https://twitter.com/IsolatedBrit/status/863649855331282944
It seems that all across the nation(s) Tories have taken Tessy's Nasty party speech as an aspiration rather than a reproach.0 -
If only cavemen had voted labour there would have been.View_From_Cumbria said:In genealogy a short generation is reckoned at 25 and a long generation at 33 i.e. depending upon the society there are either three or four generations per century. If that doesn't make immediate sense in a time when most married couples had say five or six children the eldest / eldest / eldest / eldest led to four generations per century the youngest youngest youngest youngest led to three.
And that is what so infuriated me with Neil Kinnock asking why he was the first Kinnock in a thousand generations to go to university. Leaving aside intrinsic thickness in his family there have only been universities for about 30 generations. For the previous 970 generations they did not exist.0 -
In 2007.SandyRentool said:
She highlighted the fact that Fallon had attended President Assad's victory party a few years ago.isam said:Twitter is saying Thornberry has bested Fallon on Marr
Quite amusing to watch.
It should have been an easy reply though: attending a reception in Syria in 2007 is rather different to wanting the IRA to win when they were bombing Britain.0 -
THIS is Labour's great hope?
https://order-order.com/2017/05/14/long-bailey-comes-tv-refuses-answer-questions/
Snigger.0 -
It is a stupid strategy to catch the stupid. Unfortunately we seem to have many of them.Alistair said:
Given this isn't the Holyrood election what's she on about. Unless it's national Tory policy it irrelevant.Theuniondivvie said:
The screeching about turn from those who previously constructed endless arguments against free prescriptions will be a joy to behold.calum said:SCON's first policy - free prescriptions !
https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/863682837232459777
This is like the Slab Holyrood campaign in inverse. It is either a very clever or very stupid strategy.0 -
Thank you for your service.NickPalmer said:By the way, if anyone's interested, I'll be taking up a new job next month as Head of Policy for the non-partisan Compassion in World Farming., who work to oppose factory farming. I think that will mark my definitive retirement from party politics, though I expect I'll still comment as a detached observer. It's been fun!
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ELBOW - technically incomplete without ICM (and Survation, if they're doing one this weekend).surbiton said:
I take it you are leaving the ARSE until the final stretch.JackW said:
Chortle ....surbiton said:
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.DavidL said:
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.Scott_P said:Expect to see this picture a lot today
https://twitter.com/rabberoonies/status/863693220500426753
You can certainly smell the Tory fear in the air as they peruse substantial double digit poll leads.
So far seven polls with fieldwork end-dates during week ending 14th.
But the Tory lead is in freefall!
Con Lab LD UKIP Tory Lead
23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.290 -
In this particular case whether or not an organisation paid for XP support is irrelevant, there was no XP patch for the particular vulnerability until yesterday, and it is now freely available.surbiton said:NHS Wales, under Labour, paid for XP support. NHS England , under the Tories didn't. I suppose , NHS Scotland, under the SNP, did not [ I have no evidence on the last one ]
So if NHS Wales avoided the problem is was due to something else, maybe just simple good luck that their computers weren't targeted.
That said no organisations should be paying for continuing XP support, they should be upgrading to more secure newer versions of Windows, not keep creaky old XP going.
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LOL, a few letters out of place there Surbiton, more "fousty" than "feisty"surbiton said:
Morning, Carlotta. Bit feisty today ?CarlottaVance said:
Saving the best until last.....surbiton said:
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.DavidL said:
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.Scott_P said:Expect to see this picture a lot today
https://twitter.com/rabberoonies/status/8636932205004267530 -
Well the gypsy remark is out of line, but without delving into it the rest might just be a, you know, joke.Theuniondivvie said:The outbreak of Tory councillors deleting their twitter & FB accounts seems to have spread from Scotland to England.
https://twitter.com/IsolatedBrit/status/863649855331282944
It seems that all across the nation(s) Tories have taken Tessy's Nasty party speech as an aspiration rather than a reproach.
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She's fantastic.Floater said:THIS is Labour's great hope?
https://order-order.com/2017/05/14/long-bailey-comes-tv-refuses-answer-questions/
Snigger.0 -
Ruth spending today on Twitter focusing on Corbyn's IRA past - will certainly help shore up the Orange vote which SCON seem to value so highly. As with the CCHQ attack on C's Syria links, I think these attacks won't resonate that much with the border electorate !!
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/8636638078597570560 -
Hopefully your money is down the drain PulpstarPulpstar said:Applied a transition for Scotland, ends up with the SNP doing surprisingly well !
Still on 54 seats.
WAK
BRS
DCT
D&G
Edi South (To the Tories !)
One for @MalcolmG here though:
SNP Gain! Orkney & Shetland. Please note I have backed Carmichael with cold cash before anyone screams about how I'm being bias to the SNP.0 -
Poor old Nick, such a delicate flower that he deleted his twitter account because of a crap joke.kle4 said:
Well the gypsy remark is out of line, but without delving into it the rest might just be a, you know, joke.Theuniondivvie said:The outbreak of Tory councillors deleting their twitter & FB accounts seems to have spread from Scotland to England.
https://twitter.com/IsolatedBrit/status/863649855331282944
It seems that all across the nation(s) Tories have taken Tessy's Nasty party speech as an aspiration rather than a reproach.0 -
While I agree the plan to have Corbyn implode hasnt worked, and people are photographed next to others without supporting them, that doesn't mean you cannot find such a photo and the person did support the one they are photoed. With.NickPalmer said:
Their theory was (I think) that by letting Labour make the initial running, Corbyn would implode and they could then step in and pick up the pieces. That hasn't happened. They will obviously try the IRA/Hamas stuff big time, but I think that's factored in already - sure, people don't necessarily know exactly who said what in 1974 or whatever, but they've got the general idea. Corbyn was as a backbencher willing to meet people on the margins and make friendly comments - that bothers voters or it doesn't, but it's not news.DavidL said:
They hardly did anything in the first 3 weeks. At some point they will inevitably join in this election campaign thing. What will happen then I wonder?
Personally, I found as an MP that one ends up being photographed with all kinds of people unless one's incredibly careful (which backbenchers usually aren't) - people come to see you on a delegation, or meet you at a reception where photographers are all over the place, and yesterday's friends or at least polite partners in joint efforts turn out to be today's enemies and vice versa. Assad is a very good example, and Sinn Fein is too. I met someone from the British Association for Shooting and Conservation two weeks ago and said polite things about him - that doesn't make me a country sports fan.0 -
But what happens if you win; will the poor animals have to wait?NickPalmer said:By the way, if anyone's interested, I'll be taking up a new job next month as Head of Policy for the non-partisan Compassion in World Farming., who work to oppose factory farming. I think that will mark my definitive retirement from party politics, though I expect I'll still comment as a detached observer. It's been fun!
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It'd be an amazing, if slightly expensive vindication of this particular model.malcolmg said:
Hopefully your money is down the drain PulpstarPulpstar said:Applied a transition for Scotland, ends up with the SNP doing surprisingly well !
Still on 54 seats.
WAK
BRS
DCT
D&G
Edi South (To the Tories !)
One for @MalcolmG here though:
SNP Gain! Orkney & Shetland. Please note I have backed Carmichael with cold cash before anyone screams about how I'm being bias to the SNP.
But I think he's an exception that proves the rule in all honesty.0 -
They wanted their ideal opponent.surbiton said:
Oh, I see. The Tories were concerned about the well-being of the Labour Party !another_richard said:
I wonder if the Conservatives were worried that Labour would collapse and that the LibDems would be the beneficiaries.DavidL said:
They hardly did anything in the first 3 weeks. At some point they will inevitably join in this election campaign thing. What will happen then I wonder?surbiton said:
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.DavidL said:
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.Scott_P said:Expect to see this picture a lot today
https://twitter.com/rabberoonies/status/863693220500426753
Labour at 30% in the polls gives a greater threat for Conservatives to vote against than the 'nice' LibDems at 30% would.
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How many Tories have butt sucked Assad over the years David. Pretty sure you could fill albums with them , tongues hanging out. You also seem to forget that the sainted Margaret and many other Tories sucked up to IRA but did it in the shadows as they did not hav ethe bollox to let the public know they were doing it. Stones and glasshouses come to mind.DavidL said:
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.Scott_P said:Expect to see this picture a lot today
https://twitter.com/rabberoonies/status/8636932205004267530 -
Palmer4EthicalCowPats.com ??NickPalmer said:By the way, if anyone's interested, I'll be taking up a new job next month as Head of Policy for the non-partisan Compassion in World Farming., who work to oppose factory farming. I think that will mark my definitive retirement from party politics, though I expect I'll still comment as a detached observer. It's been fun!
Good luck Nick.0 -
I cannot get over that Trudeau is 45. Handsome bastard.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
OK pb'ers. I'm asking you to donate three minutes of your time in training my CrowdScores comments AI. As many of you are CrowdScores users, you will know that a lot of people write "amusing" comments like "Chelsea fans are all coksackers". Occasionally though, people write genuinely informative commentary about the game such as "Great pass from Mertasacker, Man Utd were very lucky the ball ricocheted into touch" or somesuch.
So, I thought I'd play with Google's TensorFlow deep learning system. I have got the 70,000 most interesting English language comments pulled out via a bit of Bayesian filtering. Now I'd like to separate them again into the "interesting" and the "boring".
So, please could you go to: http://survey.amoral.org and click on "good" or "bad" for each comment until you've done about 50. (It'll take you three minutes.)
(I shall probably outsource this to Mechanical Turk longer term, but I thought you guys could do a good first pass.)
THANK YOU!0 -
3.16 pm on Saturday? Eurovision started at 8kle4 said:
Well the gypsy remark is out of line, but without delving into it the rest might just be a, you know, joke.Theuniondivvie said:The outbreak of Tory councillors deleting their twitter & FB accounts seems to have spread from Scotland to England.
https://twitter.com/IsolatedBrit/status/863649855331282944
It seems that all across the nation(s) Tories have taken Tessy's Nasty party speech as an aspiration rather than a reproach.0 -
Thornberry I would class as inconsistent. I've seen her be awful, but also seen her be pretty good.ydoethur said:
She was being lambasted long before Corbyn was even a thing:surbiton said:
She is actually very good. She is lambasted only because of her perceived association with Corbyn.SandyRentool said:Thornberry coming across as a normal human being on Marr.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/21/emily-thornberry-resignation-explain-outside-britain0 -
On your #1. If I take the weighted numbers, then for 18 - 64 [ almost the entire working age groups ] Tories = 527 , Labour = 470. Obviously, until age 49 Labour leads easily.NickPalmer said:
Thanks - worth detailed study. Some notes that may not be entirely intuitive (you can read them for yourself, of course, but maybe these nuggets are worth highlighting):CarlottaVance said:
1. The real gap in Britain is no longer class (Tories ahead by 12 in the upper-income group and 11 in the rest, meh). It's age. Labour is well ahead among the 18-24 group but also among the 35-49 group. Tories are well ahead in the 59-64 group and massively among the elderly (57-14)
2. There is a bit of Con-Lab/Lab-Con interplay (4 and 8 points) but nothing significant.
3. The decline in the LD vote is helping the Tories, not Labour (20-10)
4. The decline in UKIP even more so (52-6!), and it's huge. Only 1 in 6 UKIP voters in 2015 plan to vote UKIP this time. UKIP is attracting 0 votes from anyone else.
5. Stated certainty to vote is almost identical for everyone.
6. There has been a leaning among don't knows (who are 18% of the total) to Labour during the campaign. A week earlier the DKs were leaning 15-10 to Con. Now they're 17-15 to Lab. This doesn't show up in polls since they're still don't knows. This no doubt reflects Labour's higher profile campaign, but probably most of these won't vote.
7. Of those who've decided, few think they might change their minds (Con 5, Lab 11, LD 22).
What does this mean for betting? Well, a constitituency where you'd expect the Tories to do above average would have a big retired proportion and a big UKIP proportion (though this may have some double counting). Some of the coastal seats, maybe? Labour should do above average in the opposite case (Brighton Kemptown springs to mind, maybe Cambridge?). I wouldn't bet against Caroline Lucas either.
The female voters gap now is far less pronounced. Female 13, Male 23.
Labour vote is firming up. Now 80% of 2015 Lab supporting Labour.
Labour @31% , virtually identical to GE2015. Of the weighted Referendum Labour voters, the ratio for Remain:Leave is 262:125.
What was Corbyn thinking ? We shouldn't have lost the ref in the first place.
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They were desperate times, and Mrs May was a desperate woman. Still is, of course.kle4 said:
It was offered way too soon.SouthamObserver said:
That precipitous state visit invitation is looking more ill-considered by the day. Hopefully, it can be put off until well into next year, when maybe Trump will no longer be around. We will gain absolutely nothing from him coming.JosiasJessop said:Trump gets increasingly ridiculous:
http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a26478/donald-trump-emals-steam-catapult-aircraft-carrier/
And weak.0 -
isam
'Twitter is saying Thornberry has bested Fallon on Marr'
So in the real world we know the reverse is true
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Exactly the same one that at least two PBers made...kle4 said:
Well the gypsy remark is out of line, but without delving into it the rest might just be a, you know, joke.Theuniondivvie said:The outbreak of Tory councillors deleting their twitter & FB accounts seems to have spread from Scotland to England.
https://twitter.com/IsolatedBrit/status/863649855331282944
It seems that all across the nation(s) Tories have taken Tessy's Nasty party speech as an aspiration rather than a reproach.0 -
Scott only peasants and cretins watch Marr, so we will leave it to you to enlighten us.Scott_P said:I am surprised the Zoomers have not been bigging up the Sainted Nicola's appearance on Marr this morning
@PolhomeEditor: Nicola Sturgeon says that if you ignore literacy and numeracy, Scottish education is doing well. Righto. #marr
Oh...0 -
Well, they might work on the border between North & South Lanarkshire.calum said:Ruth spending today on Twitter focusing on Corbyn's IRA past - will certainly help shore up the Orange vote which SCON seem to value so highly. As with the CCHQ attack on C's Syria links, I think these attacks won't resonate that much with the border electorate !!
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/8636638078597570560 -
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Rebecca Long-Bailey, as with Emily Thornberry obviously not been briefed by LHQ before heading off to the TV studios. Not exactly 'end of the world' stuff, but also no a good look.Floater said:THIS is Labour's great hope?
https://order-order.com/2017/05/14/long-bailey-comes-tv-refuses-answer-questions/
Snigger.0 -
The Moldovan President is 42.kle4 said:
I cannot get over that Trudeau is 45. Handsome bastard.AlastairMeeks said:
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More worthwhile than campaigning for Socialism! Good luck, I have a lot of time for that issue. Factory farming should not be normalised, killing any animal except in self defence should be done with a heavy heartNickPalmer said:By the way, if anyone's interested, I'll be taking up a new job next month as Head of Policy for the non-partisan Compassion in World Farming., who work to oppose factory farming. I think that will mark my definitive retirement from party politics, though I expect I'll still comment as a detached observer. It's been fun!
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I am sure there are pictures of Martin McGuinness shaking hands with the Queen.kle4 said:
While I agree the plan to have Corbyn implode hasnt worked, and people are photographed next to others without supporting them, that doesn't mean you cannot find such a photo and the person did support the one they are photoed with.NickPalmer said:
Their theory was (I think) that by letting Labour make the initial running, Corbyn would implode and they could then step in and pick up the pieces. That hasn't happened. They will obviously try the IRA/Hamas stuff big time, but I think that's factored in already - sure, people don't necessarily know exactly who said what in 1974 or whatever, but they've got the general idea. Corbyn was as a backbencher willing to meet people on the margins and make friendly comments - that bothers voters or it doesn't, but it's not news.DavidL said:
They hardly did anything in the first 3 weeks. At some point they will inevitably join in this election campaign thing. What will happen then I wonder?
Personally, I found as an MP that one ends up being photographed with all kinds of people unless one's incredibly careful (which backbenchers usually aren't) - people come to see you on a delegation, or meet you at a reception where photographers are all over the place, and yesterday's friends or at least polite partners in joint efforts turn out to be today's enemies and vice versa. Assad is a very good example, and Sinn Fein is too. I met someone from the British Association for Shooting and Conservation two weeks ago and said polite things about him - that doesn't make me a country sports fan.0 -
There was under the extended support.glw said:
In this particular case whether or not an organisation paid for XP support is irrelevant, there was no XP patch for the particular vulnerability until yesterday, and it is now freely available.surbiton said:NHS Wales, under Labour, paid for XP support. NHS England , under the Tories didn't. I suppose , NHS Scotland, under the SNP, did not [ I have no evidence on the last one ]
So if NHS Wales avoided the problem is was due to something else, maybe just simple good luck that their computers weren't targeted.
That said no organisations should be paying for continuing XP support, they should be upgrading to more secure newer versions of Windows, not keep creaky old XP going.0 -
And yet someone downthread said the voters don't know what Lib Dem policy is !Ishmael_Z said:
I'm a Re-Leaver (what a silly, contrived and misleading name btw). I am amazed that otherwise lucid Remain voters can take any other view, and yet call themselves believers in democracy. I think they think: let's retrospectively disenfranchise all Leave voters for being thick proles, and once you've done that there's a clear democratic mandate for Remain. Yet they think the Leavers are the fascists.FF43 said:
On that definition I'm a Re-Leaver. A democratic, if poorly informed, decision was taken. Now it's questions of how that decision is implemented with the least damage possible and where we go from here in building new relationships with the EU and the rest of the world. Questions that few people are giving much thought to, including most worryingly, Theresa May.CarlottaVance said:On the question of Brexit, the electorate can be broken down into three core groups instead of two: the Hard Leavers who want out of the EU (45 per cent); the Hard Remainers who still want to try to stop Brexit (22 per cent); and the Re-Leavers (23 per cent) — those who voted to Remain last summer but think that the government now has a duty to leave.
The emergence of this latter group means that when the parties are discussing Brexit, they should not think in terms of two pools of voters split almost down the middle. Instead, there is a big lake made up of Leave and Re-Leave voters and a much smaller Remain pond. This means that the Conservatives and UK Independence party are fishing among 68 per cent of voters, while Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Greens and nationalists are battling for just 22 per cent of the electorate.
https://amp.ft.com/content/76037a34-36ef-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa30 -
He said what? I'm more stunned by that than him lying, outright, no excuse lying, for not seeing or expecting communist flags at a May Day trade union rally.Scott_P said:0 -
I really fear for Corbyn when Andrew Neil finally gets to sink his teeth into him. After watching the hapless RLB this morning, dear oh dear, if she is this bad, imagine how Corbyn will suffer - a man with precisely zero intellectual capacity.
Not a car crash, a multi vehicle pile up in a pea souper on the M1.0 -
We live in a would were some people still go hungry, the population is rising and the amount of land fixed. and you are happy to tell the would, even boast that you are going to work for an organisation that will oppose efficiently producing food on a small area or land.NickPalmer said:By the way, if anyone's interested, I'll be taking up a new job next month as Head of Policy for the non-partisan Compassion in World Farming., who work to oppose factory farming. I think that will mark my definitive retirement from party politics, though I expect I'll still comment as a detached observer. It's been fun!
I am not saying you do not have a moral compass, you clearly do, I just don't understand it.
I understand why people oppose fox hunting, or support the state redistributing wealth, I will not always agree, but I understand. I can even understand wishing to have some regulation around factory farming, to stop or limit, adverse side affects, even when I think those regulations are ineffective.
but to simply oppose, as you put it, and even if the pressure group, word things differently, you in your own words simply describe it as 'opposing' That's a mystery to me.
Pleasing your own perseverance for food to be produced in one way or another, about somebody else's preference for enough food to keep themselves and there kids alive, is beyond me.
I enjoy reading your posts on hear, and am shore you would be a better MP than some in parliament. But I can not wish you well in your new job.
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You are right. A fall of 2.3 points in a week. Multiplied by 3.5 weeks gives us a Tory lead of 8 points.Sunil_Prasannan said:
ELBOW - technically incomplete without ICM (and Survation, if they're doing one this weekend).surbiton said:
I take it you are leaving the ARSE until the final stretch.JackW said:
Chortle ....surbiton said:
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.DavidL said:
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.Scott_P said:Expect to see this picture a lot today
https://twitter.com/rabberoonies/status/863693220500426753
You can certainly smell the Tory fear in the air as they peruse substantial double digit poll leads.
So far seven polls with fieldwork end-dates during week ending 14th.
But the Tory lead is in freefall!
Con Lab LD UKIP Tory Lead
23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.29
What was the starting point ?
TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK !0 -
If the "LIKE" button had been retained you might simply have reviewed you or your fathers posts ....rcs1000 said:OK pb'ers. I'm asking you to donate three minutes of your time in training my CrowdScores comments AI. As many of you are CrowdScores users, you will know that a lot of people write "amusing" comments like "Chelsea fans are all coksackers". Occasionally though, people write genuinely informative commentary about the game such as "Great pass from Mertasacker, Man Utd were very lucky the ball ricocheted into touch" or somesuch.
So, I thought I'd play with Google's TensorFlow deep learning system. I have got the 70,000 most interesting English language comments pulled out via a bit of Bayesian filtering. Now I'd like to separate them again into the "interesting" and the "boring".
So, please could you go to: http://survey.amoral.org and click on "good" or "bad" for each comment until you've done about 50. (It'll take you three minutes.)
(I shall probably outsource this to Mechanical Turk longer term, but I thought you guys could do a good first pass.)
THANK YOU!
(Gratuitous arse licking comment)
or all my posts (North Korean commentary)0 -
I have spent a little time this morning looking at the current state of the parties in the opinion polls.
The current position, as indicated by an average of the last ten published GB-wide opinion polls, is as follows:
Con 47.0% (+9.2)
Lab 29.9% (-1.3)
Lib Dem 9.1% (+1.0)
Ukip 5.6% (-7.3)
Green 2.9% (-0.9)
Other (incl SNP & PC) 5.5% (-0.7)
Changes versus GE2015
Next I attempted to make a reasonable guesstimate of the net flows of voters behind those headline figures, relative to the position in 2015:
Let Ukip defectors break 5:1 in favour of Con over Lab
Con = 37.8 + 6.1 = 43.9
Lab = 31.2 + 1.2 - 32.4
Grant the Tories 1 in 7 SNP voters, plus 1 in 4 SLAB voters
Con = 43.9 + 0.7 + 0.6 = 45.2
Lab = 32.4 - 0.6 = 31.8
Other = 6.2 - 0.7 = 5.5
Assign all of the Green defectors to Labour:
Lab = 31.8 + 0.9 = 32.7
Green = 3.8 - 0.9 = 2.9
Attribute all of the Lib Dem increase to net gains from Labour:
Lib Dem = 8.1 + 1.0 = 9.1
Lab = 32.7 - 1.0 = 31.7
Therefore, the direct transfer of voters from Lab to Con is as follows:
Con = 45.2 + 1.8 = 47.0
Lab = 31.7 - 1.8 = 29.9
i.e. a swing of 1.8%
These assumptions imply a net benefit to the Tories equivalent to a transfer of about 38% of the 2015 Ukip vote in the bulk of seats, allowing for a modest flow of Ukip voters back to Labour, plus an additional net movement of about 1.8% of the electorate directly from Lab to Con. Labour's losses to the Lib Dems and gains from the Greens basically cancel each other out.
(TBC)0 -
(continued)
Based on uniform national swing, I estimate that this outcome would cause the movement of the following Labour seats into the Tory column:
City of Chester
Ealing Central & Acton
Brentford & Isleworth
Halifax
Wirral West
Ilford North
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Barrow & Furness
Wolverhampton South West
Hampstead & Kilburn
Enfield North
Hove
Dewsbury
Lancaster & Fleetwood
Derbyshire North East
Harrow West
Bridgend
Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East
Westminster North
Walsall North
Wrexham
Birmingham Northfield
Wakefield
Gedling
Eltham
Stoke-on-Trent South
Birmingham Edgbaston
Clwyd South
Coventry South
Darlington
Delyn
Blackpool South
Alyn & Deeside
Scunthorpe
Bristol East
Newport West
Bishop Auckland
Bolton North East
Hyndburn
Dudley North
Mansfield
Stoke-on-Trent North
Stoke-on-Trent Central
To that list may also be added Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (SNP,) Carshalton & Wallington (LD,) Southport (LD,) Clacton (Ukip) and North Norfolk (LD.) That would give the Conservatives 48 gains and no losses under a UNS scenario relative to the status quo at dissolution, which would imply a Government majority of 106.
Of course, this is a crude calculation that takes no account of differential swing between geographical regions, and from constituency to constituency. Labour is likely to hold a few of these theoretical losses, especially in London, but these are also likely to be outnumbered by other losses to the Conservatives in provincial England, and a small handful of additional Tory gains from the SNP (bringing the Conservatives, rather conveniently, close to the majority of 124 that I have previously projected.) Unless there is further significant improvement in the Labour position and/or deterioration in that of the Conservatives, then the polls still point to a likely landslide - and that's without even accounting for the possibility that they may be incorrectly over-estimating Labour and under-estimating the Liberal Democrats, which is what I continue to suspect.0 -
0
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Slightly off topic, can anyone suggest a better alternative to Oddschecker? One would think that it would reliably list all the up to date odds from the bookmakers who take part. But it doesn't.
Examples: not all odds are listed for L.Dems <10 seats or 10-15. No odds are listed for L.Dems <10% or 10-15% of the vote.
Also it was out of date on the Lib.Dems over/under bet. It listed the mid point as 26.5 seats days after this had dropped to about 15.5.0 -
Purity is better than reality.The_Apocalypse said:What is wrong with the Twitter ''Left'':
https://twitter.com/Joannechocolat/status/863689175563988992
Anybody who is not Corbynite or sympathetic towards McDonnell is some kind of Tory to them.0 -
Who is RLB ?Jason said:I really fear for Corbyn when Andrew Neil finally gets to sink his teeth into him. After watching the hapless RLB this morning, dear oh dear, if she is this bad, imagine how Corbyn will suffer - a man with precisely zero intellectual capacity.
Not a car crash, a multi vehicle pile up in a pea souper on the M1.0 -
Do keep up. She's the next prime minster but three.surbiton said:
Who is RLB ?Jason said:I really fear for Corbyn when Andrew Neil finally gets to sink his teeth into him. After watching the hapless RLB this morning, dear oh dear, if she is this bad, imagine how Corbyn will suffer - a man with precisely zero intellectual capacity.
Not a car crash, a multi vehicle pile up in a pea souper on the M1.0 -
Was there a poll done recently asking how many people were aware of Corbyn's IRA links? Does anyone have a link if there was?0
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Here you go...malcolmg said:we will leave it to you to enlighten us.
https://twitter.com/drscottthinks/status/8637092934592552960 -
Tory candidate cracks a "joke" !
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/why-dont-you-f-back-10418760.amp0 -
Well that's politics and he might have much worse ones, much more racist ones. I was merely making the point that I cannot tell the seriousness of the hard border retaliation stuff, since plenty made that joke. And I did say the gypsy remark was out of line, I wasn't acting like it was ok.Theuniondivvie said:
Poor old Nick, such a delicate flower that he deleted his twitter account because of a crap joke.kle4 said:
Well the gypsy remark is out of line, but without delving into it the rest might just be a, you know, joke.Theuniondivvie said:The outbreak of Tory councillors deleting their twitter & FB accounts seems to have spread from Scotland to England.
https://twitter.com/IsolatedBrit/status/863649855331282944
It seems that all across the nation(s) Tories have taken Tessy's Nasty party speech as an aspiration rather than a reproach.
Maybe dial back the sarcasm for five seconds?0 -
And that didn't prove to be damaging to McGuiness.surbiton said:
I am sure there are pictures of Martin McGuinness shaking hands with the Queen.kle4 said:
While I agree the plan to have Corbyn implode hasnt worked, and people are photographed next to others without supporting them, that doesn't mean you cannot find such a photo and the person did support the one they are photoed with.NickPalmer said:
Their theory was (I think) that by letting Labour make the initial running, Corbyn would implode and they could then step in and pick up the pieces. That hasn't happened. They will obviously try the IRA/Hamas stuff big time, but I think that's factored in already - sure, people don't necessarily know exactly who said what in 1974 or whatever, but they've got the general idea. Corbyn was as a backbencher willing to meet people on the margins and make friendly comments - that bothers voters or it doesn't, but it's not news.DavidL said:
They hardly did anything in the first 3 weeks. At some point they will inevitably join in this election campaign thing. What will happen then I wonder?
Personally, I found as an MP that one ends up being photographed with all kinds of people unless one's incredibly careful (which backbenchers usually aren't) - people come to see you on a delegation, or meet you at a reception where photographers are all over the place, and yesterday's friends or at least polite partners in joint efforts turn out to be today's enemies and vice versa. Assad is a very good example, and Sinn Fein is too. I met someone from the British Association for Shooting and Conservation two weeks ago and said polite things about him - that doesn't make me a country sports fan.0 -
Who is RLB ?Restharrow said:
Do keep up. She's the next prime minster but three.surbiton said:
Who is RLB ?Jason said:I really fear for Corbyn when Andrew Neil finally gets to sink his teeth into him. After watching the hapless RLB this morning, dear oh dear, if she is this bad, imagine how Corbyn will suffer - a man with precisely zero intellectual capacity.
Not a car crash, a multi vehicle pile up in a pea souper on the M1.0 -
There certainly are. What about my point disputed that?surbiton said:
I am sure there are pictures of Martin McGuinness shaking hands with the Queen.kle4 said:
While I agree the plan to have Corbyn implode hasnt worked, and people are photographed next to others without supporting them, that doesn't mean you cannot find such a photo and the person did support the one they are photoed with.NickPalmer said:
Their theory was (I think) that by letting Labour make the initial running, Corbyn would implode and they could then step in and pick up the pieces. That hasn't happened. They will obviously try the IRA/Hamas stuff big time, but I think that's factored in already - sure, people don't necessarily know exactly who said what in 1974 or whatever, but they've got the general idea. Corbyn was as a backbencher willing to meet people on the margins and make friendly comments - that bothers voters or it doesn't, but it's not news.DavidL said:
They hardly did anything in the first 3 weeks. At some point they will inevitably join in this election campaign thing. What will happen then I wonder?
Personally, I found as an MP that one ends up being photographed with all kinds of people unless one's incredibly careful (which backbenchers usually aren't) - people come to see you on a delegation, or meet you at a reception where photographers are all over the place, and yesterday's friends or at least polite partners in joint efforts turn out to be today's enemies and vice versa. Assad is a very good example, and Sinn Fein is too. I met someone from the British Association for Shooting and Conservation two weeks ago and said polite things about him - that doesn't make me a country sports fan.0 -
Nick's not standing in Broxtowe this time.MikeK said:
But what happens if you win; will the poor animals have to wait?NickPalmer said:By the way, if anyone's interested, I'll be taking up a new job next month as Head of Policy for the non-partisan Compassion in World Farming., who work to oppose factory farming. I think that will mark my definitive retirement from party politics, though I expect I'll still comment as a detached observer. It's been fun!
0 -
I'm not standing!MikeK said:
But what happens if you win; will the poor animals have to wait?NickPalmer said:By the way, if anyone's interested, I'll be taking up a new job next month as Head of Policy for the non-partisan Compassion in World Farming., who work to oppose factory farming. I think that will mark my definitive retirement from party politics, though I expect I'll still comment as a detached observer. It's been fun!
By the way, welcome back - I recall you took time out for health reasons. I hope you're feeling better.0 -
Emily Thornberry shortened in next Lab leader betting but still available at 28-1 BET365 could be long-term value.There is also value to be had outside the favourite in the next Lib Dem leader market too.Tories backed into 11-10 in North Norfolk.Lamb could be in the Tory/ukip kleftiko.Take out Tom Brake 4-1-13-2,who could well be decapitated as well,and you are left with Gregg Who and a number of other who?s.2 names who could easily make it into the frame are Simon Hughes at 40-1 and Vince Cable at 50-1.They are both odds-on to re-take their seats and could also represent short and long-term value.Fallon may not survive this election.0
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39911530
Can this be correct ?
Japanese officials say the missile, which launched from north-western Kusong, reached an altitude of 2,000km
That is 5 times as far up as the International Space Station !!0 -
I suspect that Yougov has the Tories too high and UKIP a bit low.AlastairMeeks said:
Labour supporters need to accept the possibility of and then work through the implications of the pollsters having the Conservative figure about right. And Conservative supporters need to accept the possibility of and then work through the implications of the pollsters having the Labour figure about right. Neither seems to have done this yet.MaxPB said:
I honestly believe that polls are going to to struggle to find Lab -> Con switchers this time, normally they are easy to identify in the centre ground, this time because of the PM's pitch they are coming from the working classes, a group which is notoriously difficult to poll accurately.AlastairMeeks said:Martin Boon of ICM was on Twitter last night, as TSE noted, and if ICM have a poll imminent it certainly isn't showing Labour at 30%. It's rare to see a pollster so openly sceptical about rivals' findings.
0 -
Except hunger is caused by inefficient distribution of food not insufficient production. Many farming practices that produce "cheap" food are unsustainable (requiring massive external input to keep the land productive) with big negative externalities.BigRich said:
We live in a would were some people still go hungry, the population is rising and the amount of land fixed. and you are happy to tell the would, even boast that you are going to work for an organisation that will oppose efficiently producing food on a small area or land.NickPalmer said:By the way, if anyone's interested, I'll be taking up a new job next month as Head of Policy for the non-partisan Compassion in World Farming., who work to oppose factory farming. I think that will mark my definitive retirement from party politics, though I expect I'll still comment as a detached observer. It's been fun!
0 -
Without the gypsy remark, crucially. But it's why I assume he was joking, but crossed a line, rather than being an example of the reactionary end times. Though since apparently people would vote to leave Eurovision, who can say.ThreeQuidder said:
Exactly the same one that at least two PBers made...kle4 said:
Well the gypsy remark is out of line, but without delving into it the rest might just be a, you know, joke.Theuniondivvie said:The outbreak of Tory councillors deleting their twitter & FB accounts seems to have spread from Scotland to England.
https://twitter.com/IsolatedBrit/status/863649855331282944
It seems that all across the nation(s) Tories have taken Tessy's Nasty party speech as an aspiration rather than a reproach.0 -
As I said earlier, I still expect UKIP to poll 1 million votes.justin124 said:
I suspect that Yougov has the Tories too high and UKIP a bit low.AlastairMeeks said:
Labour supporters need to accept the possibility of and then work through the implications of the pollsters having the Conservative figure about right. And Conservative supporters need to accept the possibility of and then work through the implications of the pollsters having the Labour figure about right. Neither seems to have done this yet.MaxPB said:
I honestly believe that polls are going to to struggle to find Lab -> Con switchers this time, normally they are easy to identify in the centre ground, this time because of the PM's pitch they are coming from the working classes, a group which is notoriously difficult to poll accurately.AlastairMeeks said:Martin Boon of ICM was on Twitter last night, as TSE noted, and if ICM have a poll imminent it certainly isn't showing Labour at 30%. It's rare to see a pollster so openly sceptical about rivals' findings.
0 -
Why can't you take the polls [ whichever you choose ] and tweak it with proper representative regional polls ? Then your transfers will be built in.Black_Rook said:I have spent a little time this morning looking at the current state of the parties in the opinion polls.
The current position, as indicated by an average of the last ten published GB-wide opinion polls, is as follows:
Con 47.0% (+9.2)
Lab 29.9% (-1.3)
Lib Dem 9.1% (+1.0)
Ukip 5.6% (-7.3)
Green 2.9% (-0.9)
Other (incl SNP & PC) 5.5% (-0.7)
Changes versus GE2015
Next I attempted to make a reasonable guesstimate of the net flows of voters behind those headline figures, relative to the position in 2015:
Let Ukip defectors break 5:1 in favour of Con over Lab
Con = 37.8 + 6.1 = 43.9
Lab = 31.2 + 1.2 - 32.4
Grant the Tories 1 in 7 SNP voters, plus 1 in 4 SLAB voters
Con = 43.9 + 0.7 + 0.6 = 45.2
Lab = 32.4 - 0.6 = 31.8
Other = 6.2 - 0.7 = 5.5
Assign all of the Green defectors to Labour:
Lab = 31.8 + 0.9 = 32.7
Green = 3.8 - 0.9 = 2.9
Attribute all of the Lib Dem increase to net gains from Labour:
Lib Dem = 8.1 + 1.0 = 9.1
Lab = 32.7 - 1.0 = 31.7
Therefore, the direct transfer of voters from Lab to Con is as follows:
Con = 45.2 + 1.8 = 47.0
Lab = 31.7 - 1.8 = 29.9
i.e. a swing of 1.8%
These assumptions imply a net benefit to the Tories equivalent to a transfer of about 38% of the 2015 Ukip vote in the bulk of seats, allowing for a modest flow of Ukip voters back to Labour, plus an additional net movement of about 1.8% of the electorate directly from Lab to Con. Labour's losses to the Lib Dems and gains from the Greens basically cancel each other out.
(TBC)
The problem with transfers appearing in opinion polls, like regions, is that there are not sufficient in number for them to be weighted by themselves. For the country as a whole, yes, but not for regions.0 -
Except that, on that measure, the Conservative position is better than it was three weeks ago.surbiton said:
You are right. A fall of 2.3 points in a week. Multiplied by 3.5 weeks gives us a Tory lead of 8 points.Sunil_Prasannan said:
ELBOW - technically incomplete without ICM (and Survation, if they're doing one this weekend).surbiton said:
I take it you are leaving the ARSE until the final stretch.JackW said:
Chortle ....surbiton said:
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.DavidL said:
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.Scott_P said:Expect to see this picture a lot today
https://twitter.com/rabberoonies/status/863693220500426753
You can certainly smell the Tory fear in the air as they peruse substantial double digit poll leads.
So far seven polls with fieldwork end-dates during week ending 14th.
But the Tory lead is in freefall!
Con Lab LD UKIP Tory Lead
23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.29
What was the starting point ?
TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK !
*IF* the polls are right and Labour's support is firming up, any net gains are coming from the also-rans - and the lower their support drops, the more difficult they will become to squeeze.
The Labour party is not going to get to 39% of the vote due to (currently almost non-existent) controversy over Triple Lock pensions. Or by any other means.0 -
I wish you every success, a very worthy cause.NickPalmer said:By the way, if anyone's interested, I'll be taking up a new job next month as Head of Policy for the non-partisan Compassion in World Farming., who work to oppose factory farming. I think that will mark my definitive retirement from party politics, though I expect I'll still comment as a detached observer. It's been fun!
0 -
Now burying UKIP on the Weekly Politics. We shall see.0
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They will vote about 1.25mMikeK said:
As I said earlier, I still expect UKIP to poll 1 million votes.justin124 said:
I suspect that Yougov has the Tories too high and UKIP a bit low.AlastairMeeks said:
Labour supporters need to accept the possibility of and then work through the implications of the pollsters having the Conservative figure about right. And Conservative supporters need to accept the possibility of and then work through the implications of the pollsters having the Labour figure about right. Neither seems to have done this yet.MaxPB said:
I honestly believe that polls are going to to struggle to find Lab -> Con switchers this time, normally they are easy to identify in the centre ground, this time because of the PM's pitch they are coming from the working classes, a group which is notoriously difficult to poll accurately.AlastairMeeks said:Martin Boon of ICM was on Twitter last night, as TSE noted, and if ICM have a poll imminent it certainly isn't showing Labour at 30%. It's rare to see a pollster so openly sceptical about rivals' findings.
0 -
Do you know what a joke is ?Black_Rook said:
Except that, on that measure, the Conservative position is better than it was three weeks ago.surbiton said:
You are right. A fall of 2.3 points in a week. Multiplied by 3.5 weeks gives us a Tory lead of 8 points.Sunil_Prasannan said:
ELBOW - technically incomplete without ICM (and Survation, if they're doing one this weekend).surbiton said:
I take it you are leaving the ARSE until the final stretch.JackW said:
Chortle ....surbiton said:
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.DavidL said:
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.Scott_P said:Expect to see this picture a lot today
https://twitter.com/rabberoonies/status/863693220500426753
You can certainly smell the Tory fear in the air as they peruse substantial double digit poll leads.
So far seven polls with fieldwork end-dates during week ending 14th.
But the Tory lead is in freefall!
Con Lab LD UKIP Tory Lead
23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.29
What was the starting point ?
TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK !
*IF* the polls are right and Labour's support is firming up, any net gains are coming from the also-rans - and the lower their support drops, the more difficult they will become to squeeze.
The Labour party is not going to get to 39% of the vote due to (currently almost non-existent) controversy over Triple Lock pensions. Or by any other means.0 -
I wish people didn't label poor interviews as car crashes. I can only think of a handful which lived up the horrible expectation conjured up. Usually involving Lucy Powell or Diane Abbott.0
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Floater said:
THIS is Labour's great hope?
https://order-order.com/2017/05/14/long-bailey-comes-tv-refuses-answer-questions/
Snigger.
Except she isn't. Most of the Labour politicians who would give May a run for her money are maintaining a very low national profile this time around.0 -
It's that thing that comes with a smiley face.surbiton said:
Do you know what a joke is ?Black_Rook said:
Except that, on that measure, the Conservative position is better than it was three weeks ago.surbiton said:
You are right. A fall of 2.3 points in a week. Multiplied by 3.5 weeks gives us a Tory lead of 8 points.Sunil_Prasannan said:
ELBOW - technically incomplete without ICM (and Survation, if they're doing one this weekend).surbiton said:
I take it you are leaving the ARSE until the final stretch.JackW said:
Chortle ....surbiton said:
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.DavidL said:
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.Scott_P said:Expect to see this picture a lot today
https://twitter.com/rabberoonies/status/863693220500426753
You can certainly smell the Tory fear in the air as they peruse substantial double digit poll leads.
So far seven polls with fieldwork end-dates during week ending 14th.
But the Tory lead is in freefall!
Con Lab LD UKIP Tory Lead
23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.29
What was the starting point ?
TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK ! TRIPLE LOCK !
*IF* the polls are right and Labour's support is firming up, any net gains are coming from the also-rans - and the lower their support drops, the more difficult they will become to squeeze.
The Labour party is not going to get to 39% of the vote due to (currently almost non-existent) controversy over Triple Lock pensions. Or by any other means.
Didn't include it once and someone thought, or acted as though they thought, my comment that May called the election to see of Osborne was real.0 -
Not seen the underlying data - but this might explain in part why SCON appear to be shifting tactics - next Ruth will be promising to keep funding the Bedroom Tax and maintain no Tuition fees !!
https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/8636867523467919360 -
Surely dumping another couple of barrow loads of soil on something that's already six feet under.MikeK said:Now burying UKIP on the Weekly Politics. We shall see.
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Yebbut that was AFTER peace broke out....surbiton said:
I am sure there are pictures of Martin McGuinness shaking hands with the Queen.kle4 said:
While I agree the plan to have Corbyn implode hasnt worked, and people are photographed next to others without supporting them, that doesn't mean you cannot find such a photo and the person did support the one they are photoed with.NickPalmer said:
Their theory was (I think) that by letting Labour make the initial running, Corbyn would implode and they could then step in and pick up the pieces. That hasn't happened. They will obviously try the IRA/Hamas stuff big time, but I think that's factored in already - sure, people don't necessarily know exactly who said what in 1974 or whatever, but they've got the general idea. Corbyn was as a backbencher willing to meet people on the margins and make friendly comments - that bothers voters or it doesn't, but it's not news.DavidL said:
They hardly did anything in the first 3 weeks. At some point they will inevitably join in this election campaign thing. What will happen then I wonder?
Personally, I found as an MP that one ends up being photographed with all kinds of people unless one's incredibly careful (which backbenchers usually aren't) - people come to see you on a delegation, or meet you at a reception where photographers are all over the place, and yesterday's friends or at least polite partners in joint efforts turn out to be today's enemies and vice versa. Assad is a very good example, and Sinn Fein is too. I met someone from the British Association for Shooting and Conservation two weeks ago and said polite things about him - that doesn't make me a country sports fan.0 -
Oh, I am behind the times. On the health thing, it wasn't my health that was the issue, rather Someone decided the blog could do without me.NickPalmer said:
I'm not standing!MikeK said:
But what happens if you win; will the poor animals have to wait?NickPalmer said:By the way, if anyone's interested, I'll be taking up a new job next month as Head of Policy for the non-partisan Compassion in World Farming., who work to oppose factory farming. I think that will mark my definitive retirement from party politics, though I expect I'll still comment as a detached observer. It's been fun!
By the way, welcome back - I recall you took time out for health reasons. I hope you're feeling better.
Anyway good luck for the future.0 -
It is traditionally the day for sermonizing I suppose.kle4 said:
Well that's politics and he might have much worse ones, much more racist ones. I was merely making the point that I cannot tell the seriousness of the hard border retaliation stuff, since plenty made that joke. And I did say the gypsy remark was out of line, I wasn't acting like it was ok.Theuniondivvie said:
Poor old Nick, such a delicate flower that he deleted his twitter account because of a crap joke.kle4 said:
Well the gypsy remark is out of line, but without delving into it the rest might just be a, you know, joke.Theuniondivvie said:The outbreak of Tory councillors deleting their twitter & FB accounts seems to have spread from Scotland to England.
https://twitter.com/IsolatedBrit/status/863649855331282944
It seems that all across the nation(s) Tories have taken Tessy's Nasty party speech as an aspiration rather than a reproach.
Maybe dial back the sarcasm for five seconds?0 -
Corbyn wanted the IRA to win. Any examination of his engagement with Northern Ireland shows this. Two weeks after the Brighton bombing he invited Sinn Fein leaders to the House of Commons. He stood in silence to honour the IRA dead. He voted against the Good Friday agreement. I don't know if Nick Palmer is being naive, disingenuous or dishonest, but he is wrong. Islington, like Camden, was a very Irish and very pro-Republican in the 60s, 70s and 80s. Pubs played the Soldiers Song at closing time, there were regular collections for the provisionals and Sinn Fein. You did not get on in the Labour party there without solid Republican credentials. Things have changed, time has moved on, but Corbyn cannot undo his past. It's there and it's clear to see. The Queen shook hands with Martin McGuinness because the government told her to. She also shook hands with countless others from all sides in the Northern Ireland conflict. Show me one photo of Jeremy Corbyn shaking hands with a loyalist or a unionist; one of him meeting them or marching with them. There are none. He regarded them as the enemy.0
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Because there are almost no regional polls for England, save for one or two London surveys - and those imply that Labour is doing relatively well in inner London, which we could've deduced both from common sense and from reading the regional sub-samples e.g. from YouGov in any case. We only have separate surveys for Wales and Scotland; the former don't present a picture vastly different from what we would expect based on the GB-wide data (Lab does a bit better and Con a bit worse, but not sufficiently to affect the exchange of seats significantly,) and the latter suggest that the SNP will hold anywhere from a large to an overwhelming majority of their current seats, so neither makes very much difference to the overall calculus.surbiton said:
Why can't you take the polls [ whichever you choose ] and tweak it with proper representative regional polls ? Then your transfers will be built in.Black_Rook said:I have spent a little time this morning looking at the current state of the parties in the opinion polls.
The current position, as indicated by an average of the last ten published GB-wide opinion polls, is as follows:
Con 47.0% (+9.2)
Lab 29.9% (-1.3)
Lib Dem 9.1% (+1.0)
Ukip 5.6% (-7.3)
Green 2.9% (-0.9)
Other (incl SNP & PC) 5.5% (-0.7)
Changes versus GE2015
Next I attempted to make a reasonable guesstimate of the net flows of voters behind those headline figures, relative to the position in 2015:
Let Ukip defectors break 5:1 in favour of Con over Lab
Con = 37.8 + 6.1 = 43.9
Lab = 31.2 + 1.2 - 32.4
Grant the Tories 1 in 7 SNP voters, plus 1 in 4 SLAB voters
Con = 43.9 + 0.7 + 0.6 = 45.2
Lab = 32.4 - 0.6 = 31.8
Other = 6.2 - 0.7 = 5.5
Assign all of the Green defectors to Labour:
Lab = 31.8 + 0.9 = 32.7
Green = 3.8 - 0.9 = 2.9
Attribute all of the Lib Dem increase to net gains from Labour:
Lib Dem = 8.1 + 1.0 = 9.1
Lab = 32.7 - 1.0 = 31.7
Therefore, the direct transfer of voters from Lab to Con is as follows:
Con = 45.2 + 1.8 = 47.0
Lab = 31.7 - 1.8 = 29.9
i.e. a swing of 1.8%
These assumptions imply a net benefit to the Tories equivalent to a transfer of about 38% of the 2015 Ukip vote in the bulk of seats, allowing for a modest flow of Ukip voters back to Labour, plus an additional net movement of about 1.8% of the electorate directly from Lab to Con. Labour's losses to the Lib Dems and gains from the Greens basically cancel each other out.
(TBC)
The problem with transfers appearing in opinion polls, like regions, is that there are not sufficient in number for them to be weighted by themselves. For the country as a whole, yes, but not for regions.0 -
Corbyn is much more experienced and weathered by decades of low key politics. He might still be a relative novice at the big time, and he's lost his cool occasionally, which only makes his fans love him more, but he is able to fight through difficulty better than some of his subordinates.Jason said:I really fear for Corbyn when Andrew Neil finally gets to sink his teeth into him. After watching the hapless RLB this morning, dear oh dear, if she is this bad, imagine how Corbyn will suffer - a man with precisely zero intellectual capacity.
Not a car crash, a multi vehicle pile up in a pea souper on the M1.0 -
In the real world hardly anyone watches or cares. Who apart from already-partisan (by definition) activists will care either way?walterw said:isam
'Twitter is saying Thornberry has bested Fallon on Marr'
So in the real world we know the reverse is true0 -
Amen.Theuniondivvie said:
It is traditionally the day for sermonizing I suppose.kle4 said:
Well that's politics and he might have much worse ones, much more racist ones. I was merely making the point that I cannot tell the seriousness of the hard border retaliation stuff, since plenty made that joke. And I did say the gypsy remark was out of line, I wasn't acting like it was ok.Theuniondivvie said:
Poor old Nick, such a delicate flower that he deleted his twitter account because of a crap joke.kle4 said:
Well the gypsy remark is out of line, but without delving into it the rest might just be a, you know, joke.Theuniondivvie said:The outbreak of Tory councillors deleting their twitter & FB accounts seems to have spread from Scotland to England.
https://twitter.com/IsolatedBrit/status/863649855331282944
It seems that all across the nation(s) Tories have taken Tessy's Nasty party speech as an aspiration rather than a reproach.
Maybe dial back the sarcasm for five seconds?
I sermonise on all days. Though at least I acknowlege i get on my high horse too much. It may not totally excuse self righteousness, but I'd hope self awareness counts for a little compared to its utter lack.0 -
That's not what has been reported. Extended support for XP finished in 2014, and even the custom support agreements should be over now as those are meant to have a maximum three year lifespan. Also as far as I can tell those agreements don't provide access to all patches nor do patches come for free, the more you use the more it costs. The whole point of a custom support agreement is that it is meant to cover a transition to a newer version of Windows, not to keep the OS going indefinitely.surbiton said:There was under the extended support.
What seems to have worked for NHS Wales was blocking email and file shares, and more proactive management in general, not paying for XP support.0 -
Rentoul is talking Rayner up a little this morning.
Seems bonkers that she might be next leader, but who knows. I have had a nibble on my ever-expanding next Lab leader book.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/behind-the-scenes-in-the-election-the-corbyn-era-may-be-coming-to-an-end-a7734026.html
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I'd love to be directed to this mass of "proper representative regional polls"Black_Rook said:
Because there are almost no regional polls for England, save for one or two London surveys - and those imply that Labour is doing relatively well in inner London, which we could've deduced both from common sense and from reading the regional sub-samples e.g. from YouGov in any case. We only have separate surveys for Wales and Scotland; the former don't present a picture vastly different from what we would expect based on the GB-wide data (Lab does a bit better and Con a bit worse, but not sufficiently to affect the exchange of seats significantly,) and the latter suggest that the SNP will hold anywhere from a large to an overwhelming majority of their current seats, so neither makes very much difference to the overall calculus.surbiton said:
Why can't you take the polls [ whichever you choose ] and tweak it with proper representative regional polls ? Then your transfers will be built in.Black_Rook said:I have spent a little time this morning looking at the current state of the parties in the opinion polls.
The current position, as indicated by an average of the last ten published GB-wide opinion polls, is as follows:
Con 47.0% (+9.2)
Lab 29.9% (-1.3)
Lib Dem 9.1% (+1.0)
Ukip 5.6% (-7.3)
Green 2.9% (-0.9)
Other (incl SNP & PC) 5.5% (-0.7)
Changes versus GE2015
Next I attempted to make a reasonable guesstimate of the net flows of voters behind those headline figures, relative to the position in 2015:
Let Ukip defectors break 5:1 in favour of Con over Lab
Con = 37.8 + 6.1 = 43.9
Lab = 31.2 + 1.2 - 32.4
Grant the Tories 1 in 7 SNP voters, plus 1 in 4 SLAB voters
Con = 43.9 + 0.7 + 0.6 = 45.2
Lab = 32.4 - 0.6 = 31.8
Other = 6.2 - 0.7 = 5.5
Assign all of the Green defectors to Labour:
Lab = 31.8 + 0.9 = 32.7
Green = 3.8 - 0.9 = 2.9
Attribute all of the Lib Dem increase to net gains from Labour:
Lib Dem = 8.1 + 1.0 = 9.1
Lab = 32.7 - 1.0 = 31.7
Therefore, the direct transfer of voters from Lab to Con is as follows:
Con = 45.2 + 1.8 = 47.0
Lab = 31.7 - 1.8 = 29.9
i.e. a swing of 1.8%
These assumptions imply a net benefit to the Tories equivalent to a transfer of about 38% of the 2015 Ukip vote in the bulk of seats, allowing for a modest flow of Ukip voters back to Labour, plus an additional net movement of about 1.8% of the electorate directly from Lab to Con. Labour's losses to the Lib Dems and gains from the Greens basically cancel each other out.
(TBC)
The problem with transfers appearing in opinion polls, like regions, is that there are not sufficient in number for them to be weighted by themselves. For the country as a whole, yes, but not for regions.0 -
Afternoon Malc!malcolmg said:
Scott only peasants and cretins watch Marr, so we will leave it to you to enlighten us.Scott_P said:I am surprised the Zoomers have not been bigging up the Sainted Nicola's appearance on Marr this morning
@PolhomeEditor: Nicola Sturgeon says that if you ignore literacy and numeracy, Scottish education is doing well. Righto. #marr
Oh...
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ungulate.rottenborough said:Rentoul is talking Rayner up a little this morning.
Seems bonkers that she might be next leader, but who knows. I have had a nibble on my ever-expanding next Lab leader book.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/behind-the-scenes-in-the-election-the-corbyn-era-may-be-coming-to-an-end-a7734026.html0 -
That one was on the edge.kle4 said:I wish people didn't label poor interviews as car crashes. I can only think of a handful which lived up the horrible expectation conjured up. Usually involving Lucy Powell or Diane Abbott.
"I'm not answering that"
"or that"
"nope"
" zzzzp"0
