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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Backing Labour to win the popular vote on June 8th
William Hill have a market up on who will win the popular vote without the Tories. With the SNP standing in only Scotland, then finishing second in the popular vote is impossible unless turnout somehow craters in the rest of the United Kindgom, so that’s not an option. UKIP winning this bet is very unlikely given they are standing 254 fewer candidates than Labour and in some polls are down to 3%. Others such as the Greens, Plaid, or the other parties are also very unlikely given the lack of candidates they have standing.
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Which reminds me, how about Hills or another of those nice generous bookies out there funding the prize money for a PB.com GE competition. Surely one or other of them could find four or five hundred quid for such an important event. Time was when Shadsy could be relied upon but seemingly no longer.
There must be a catch.
But even direness has its degrees. Which is why May always comes out on top in polls.
I have done a simulation for GE 2017 England only. Simple assumption:
UKIP loses 0.66 of its votes. Of that figure, CON gets 0.8, LAB gets 0.15, LD gets 0.05
[ The last maybe a bit silly but I had to put 0.05 somewhere. As you will see , it hardly makes any difference ]
No other changes. That means, LAB retains its votes and so does the LD and the Greens.
Results are as follows:
CON 344, LAB 185, LD 3, GRN 1.
In the coming days, I will make the model more sophisticated by entering regional variations.
I hope that's not a misprint (b'' and n' are next to each other on the keyboard) ;-) )
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/13/john-cornyn-fbi-director-senate-238355
Apologies to @TSE .... it was nothing of the sort - They were far too high.
Apparently It was overseas students of the Dianne Abbott Mathematics Academy with their estimation on how many hours on Sunday it would take Ms Abbott before she gave a conclusive answer to how many beans make five.
I'd argue mildly about how you've allocated the 2/3rds loss of UKIP votes. Personally I'd have gone 15% DNV, 60% Tory, 20% Labour and yes 5% LibDem. My guess is that would leave the Tories with the smallest of overall majorities.
Con 43%?
Ruth Davidson defines a generation as 35 years
When asked how long she thought “a generation” should be, Davidson said: “What was Alex Salmond’s definition? He said that between the ̓̓79 and 2014 referendum that was about a generation. That works for me.”
Ha, the title omission makes it sound a bit misleading
Looks nailed on, frankly. Not a fan of such short odds, though.
F1: my pre-race ramble, with two tips, is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/spain-pre-race-2017.html
I've got to be honest, I'm slightly regretting the Bottas bet now. Ah well.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39910293
However long It is it's clear that the SNP believed they had waited long enough. This is starting to look like a bad miscalculation - what I thought was well-judged posturing that Sturgeon didn't believe in but would throw red meat to her left flank of irreconcilables looks as though under circumstances she clearly wasn't expecting it has left her vulnerable on the right.
However, in her further defence, the way things are going on Scotland at the moment it could easily be now or never for that second referendum.
Bottas is 5.5 to lead lap 1, but 8 to win.
If he leads lap 1 there's a far improved chance he ends up winning.
He would take from the rich, as far as he could.
However, because of all the money he would borrow, he would give all that money to a bunch of different rich people instead.
Here are 5 examples:
Bermondsey & Old Southwark
Chance of Winning and Odds: Labour 52% 2.25 (Laddies/Coral), LibDems 27% 1.67
Brighton Pavilion
Chance of Winning and Odds: Tories 55% 9.0 (PP/BetfairSports), Greens 24% 1.1
Twickenham
Chance of Winning and Odds: Tories 68% 2.625 (BetFred), LibDems 23% 1.5
Kingston and Surbiton
Chance of Winning and Odds: Tories 66% 2.0 (Bet365, Betfred, Laddies) LibDems 20% 1.91
North Norfolk
Chance of Winning and Odds: Tories 63% 2.1 (SkyBet, BetFred) LibDems 32% 1.9
Mr. Doethur, it's bloody alarming he and Corbyn are so close to power, and supported by so many people.
Merans one would become a grandparent at 50 of course, which for me at any rate was about right.
Although there’ve been several more grandchildren since.
However, the Conservatives are likely to outperform the national swing in Labour Leave seats, which will push up their total
I would personally argue that it should be the moment of officially leaving home, but that varies widely - for me it was 19, for others I have seen them still at home in their 30s.
McDonnell as Little John
Dianne "Abbott" as trandender Friar Tuck
Nick Palmer as The Sheriff of Nottingham Broxtowe
Alan-a-Iain-Dale as himself
Fitalass as Maid Marian
Prince JohnO as himself (better than a peerage)
http://www.midlothianview.com/news/snp-activists-reported-to-police/
Or have I misunderstood that? Does he intend to borrow it from old grannies in Rochdale or something?
He has also, by the by, said he will massively increase spending and simultaneously eliminate the deficit by hiking taxes only on those people who earn more than he does.
The emergence of this latter group means that when the parties are discussing Brexit, they should not think in terms of two pools of voters split almost down the middle. Instead, there is a big lake made up of Leave and Re-Leave voters and a much smaller Remain pond. This means that the Conservatives and UK Independence party are fishing among 68 per cent of voters, while Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Greens and nationalists are battling for just 22 per cent of the electorate.
https://amp.ft.com/content/76037a34-36ef-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3
https://twitter.com/edballs/status/863529261860311040
And if McDonnell does become chancellor (stop laughing at the back), then he would be hit by his own income tax rise, as his salary would go up!
And that is what so infuriated me with Neil Kinnock asking why he was the first Kinnock in a thousand generations to go to university. Leaving aside intrinsic thickness in his family there have only been universities for about 30 generations. For the previous 970 generations they did not exist.
Edit: Oh I see, England only, right?
The Labour vote won't.
Voting against May is not a great reason to go to the polls, especially when you have to vote for Corbyn.
What Macdonnell is proposing to do is borrow, in a single year over and above the rest of our deficit, roughly 40% more than Darling borrowed as Britain was fighting to emerge from the worst financial crash since 1929.
Under Darling the yield on our gilts pushed up to around 5%. Under Osborne we lost our triple A rating. Under Macdonnell, we'd probably have another downgrade and still higher yield and in all likelihood interest rates to borrow the £300 billion (at a minimum) he would be borrowing or at least trying to borrow in the first year.
If you can't see that that is not going to work...
PS - one of the things I can't fault Corbyn and Macdonnell for is their lack of personal greed. I think there is a chance that they would waive their salaries as PM and Chancellor so I stand by my earlier remark.
PPS - under Osborne our national debt rose by around £600 billion in total over six years. Compared to that, £250 billion is certainly NOT small beer, still less when it is taken in one-sixth of the time.
Notable that the only posters I saw last week in Wales were for PC. I was mostly in Ynys Mon, and Gwynedd, though!
Labour could easily, post-June 8th, find itself even more heavily entrenched in inner London, Liverpool and Manchester, whilst at best treading water and at worst sliding downhill at a rate of knots everywhere else. The council elections, with Welsh Labour not doing as badly as feared and strong results in Lancashire on one hand, but the Conservatives doing atypically well in the Midlands on the other, are a likely portent of this.
FWIW, I don't believe that there's zero direct swing from Lab to Con. I doubt that the net flow of voters is massive, but Labour's performance in the local elections was historically bad, as well as that of the Tories being historically strong for a sitting Government. The Labour performance, at the very least, can't all be accounted for with "because Ukip" - and the lost votes must've gone somewhere. It's not impossible that all of those extra voters either went to other "progressive" parties or sat on their hands, but the likelihood of no meaningful percentage of them deciding to give Mrs May/the Conservative Party a chance seems remote.
*Autocorrect amusingly turned that into 'undeceived!'
Not that a soft Brexit is on offer, I grant you.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a26478/donald-trump-emals-steam-catapult-aircraft-carrier/
Working class friends of mine who I grew up with are abandoning ship at the moment, I was out with a few yesterday at a rehearsal dinner. Most of them have only ever voted Labour in the three elections we've been able to vote in (2005, 2010, 2015) there was a fairly even Leave/Remain split but a straw poll now shows a huge increase to the Tory vote (well Theresa) and while most like Jez's ideas and some think he may be a nice person, he's not the guy we want negotiating our exit from the EU.
None of them have ever been polled by any polling company and all of them will definitely vote.
One thing that has changed in our group of friends is that almost all of us have got married or have long term partners, I don't know what difference that has made but I've felt many gravitating towards more conservative positions since then. When everyone was younger and single radical leftist policies were popular, I was a lone beacon of sanity, now whether it's age or having the responsibility of having a partner/wife that is mostly gone.
This is a most extraordinary thread header, if the Racing Post tipped something at 1/20 they would lose all credibility.
Maybe it's just that the reputation of politics has taken such a battering from the accumulation of negative media through the internet and 24 hour news, coupled with the Iraq War and expenses scandals, that people who would previously have been willing to show public support for any given party now prefer to keep their opinions to themselves?
Seeing a lot of LD-Tory switchers and also lab-tory switchers. Hardly any Tory-LD switchers. I know its early days but most peoples positions seem set.
Not good for democracy but labour are in a dreadful mess
Moldova was robbed.
Not doubting you in any way that really is finding it in the street.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/15/nicola-sturgeon-abandons-bid-remain-eu-poll-shows-record-level/