I'm on. I hesitate to say this is a completely sure thing but I am genuinely struggling to work out what the risk is.
Opportunity cost; you could have made five longer odds bets of £20 with a £100 you put on this. They might pay better overall and would certainly be more exciting - never mind "When the fun stops, stop" - does it ever actually start with a bet like this?
Despite my addiction to this site I don't find gambling that much fun. Sacrilege I know. A modest earner like this with the winnings from Macron (another sure thing once he had won round 1) suits me fine.
I'm on. I hesitate to say this is a completely sure thing but I am genuinely struggling to work out what the risk is.
Opportunity cost; you could have made five longer odds bets of £20 with a £100 you put on this. They might pay better overall and would certainly be more exciting - never mind "When the fun stops, stop" - does it ever actually start with a bet like this?
Despite my addiction to this site I don't find gambling that much fun. Sacrilege I know. A modest earner like this with the winnings from Macron (another sure thing once he had won round 1) suits me fine.
My highest bet was £40 on Brexit. I'd never bet sums that are painful to lose.
Unless there is 3 times the swing, I can't see Labour losing. But then people have to decide very early on who to plump for. One of them has to transfer 5000 votes to the other to beat Labour.
Pretty much. Everything depends entirely on whether or not the Ukip vote in Dagenham bucks the national trend and holds up; if half of the 2015 Ukip vote went over to the Conservatives, then Cruddas' advantage over them would be slashed from 17% to 2%.
A Labour defeat there is a realistic prospect, but it could just as easily be a comfortable hold. As in any general election, there will be results in this one that surprise on both sides of the average national swing.
"The NHS failed to heed repeated warnings that its out-of-date computer systems were vulnerable to the sort of cyber attack that brought it to its knees, it was claimed today.
Jeremy Hunt, the Health Secretary was accused of ignoring extensive warning signs before an unprecedented cyber attack which plunged the NHS into chaos."
If true, then I take it Jeremy Hunt will be unceremoniously dumped from his position after the General Election.
Well, Gove needs a job.
There’s a post on the Guardian’s page on the cyber-attack, as follows 'Not that that stopped Amber Rudd rushing onto television to tell everyone it was in no way the Tories' fault despite being their remit and their lack of funding, while NHS Wales was fine.’
Zat so? I've heard of problems in Scotland, which, IIRC, a spokesman said were now sorted, but nothing from Wales.
Edit: BBC Wales says Welsh NHS has recently invested in IT security.
Yes, NHS Wales came through unscathed but NHS Scotland didn't. Plus all the other non-governmental organisations hit as well. This kind of limits the ability to attack the government.
It's Labour's general uselessness that limits their ability to attack the government.
If it is true that Jeremy Hunt ignored repeated warnings and that he ended the MS extended support contract that would have prevented these outages, while NHS Wales continued with the MS contract, then that is more than enough grounds for blaming the government.
There is a reason Jeremy Hunt has said nothing at all since the incidents started.
Would a cabinet minister have a direct line of sight over the renewal of software support products? I suspect that the answer is no - that doesn't mean that responsibility can be avoided but how much centralised command is there? To take the Welsh example, who made the decision about software support there? I assume you can confidently provide evidence that it was a directly made political decision.
Your argument looks hyperbolic and difficult to maintain.
Who will come second in the popular vote ? Of course, it will be Labour ! WH is offering 1/20 ? Are they mad ?
There must be a catch.
There's no catch, let's say you want to back it for £1000, they stand to lose £50. When placing the bet either in a shop or online the chances are you'll have another bet.
This is a most extraordinary thread header, if the Racing Post tipped something at 1/20 they would lose all credibility.
Yes, that's because a horse can trip or fall, get badly positioned, go lame or one of the field can have the race of it's life. Politics is a completely different ball game. I note you were knocking the short odds on Macron before he was elected.
That's factored into the bookies prices on horse racing though. Either prices on politics are less accurate or bookies are less adept at pricing up long odds on shots correctly. Or are just happy to lay the rags at prices shorter than they should be. Or all 3.
The heavily odds on shots are too long alot of the time. Stuff like the Democrats winning in California at 1-20.
SNP constituency odds were well, well wrong even on the day of polling.
On the question of Brexit, the electorate can be broken down into three core groups instead of two: the Hard Leavers who want out of the EU (45 per cent); the Hard Remainers who still want to try to stop Brexit (22 per cent); and the Re-Leavers (23 per cent) — those who voted to Remain last summer but think that the government now has a duty to leave.
The emergence of this latter group means that when the parties are discussing Brexit, they should not think in terms of two pools of voters split almost down the middle. Instead, there is a big lake made up of Leave and Re-Leave voters and a much smaller Remain pond. This means that the Conservatives and UK Independence party are fishing among 68 per cent of voters, while Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Greens and nationalists are battling for just 22 per cent of the electorate.
Not sure that makes much sense. Labour, LDs, Greens and Nats combined are going to get at least 40% of the vote. It's possible they'll get more than 45%.
It's talking about the Brexit effect - obviously a lot more than that informs voters choices - but the lack of a big pool of dedicated REMAINERS could explain why the Lib Dems are struggling
The hard Remain faction is heavily skewed towards London and Scotland as well.
London, undoubtedly. Scotland I would argue is less certain:
"The NHS failed to heed repeated warnings that its out-of-date computer systems were vulnerable to the sort of cyber attack that brought it to its knees, it was claimed today.
Jeremy Hunt, the Health Secretary was accused of ignoring extensive warning signs before an unprecedented cyber attack which plunged the NHS into chaos."
If true, then I take it Jeremy Hunt will be unceremoniously dumped from his position after the General Election.
Well, Gove needs a job.
There’s a post on the Guardian’s page on the cyber-attack, as follows 'Not that that stopped Amber Rudd rushing onto television to tell everyone it was in no way the Tories' fault despite being their remit and their lack of funding, while NHS Wales was fine.’
Zat so? I've heard of problems in Scotland, which, IIRC, a spokesman said were now sorted, but nothing from Wales.
Edit: BBC Wales says Welsh NHS has recently invested in IT security.
Yes, NHS Wales came through unscathed but NHS Scotland didn't. Plus all the other non-governmental organisations hit as well. This kind of limits the ability to attack the government.
It's Labour's general uselessness that limits their ability to attack the government.
If it is true that Jeremy Hunt ignored repeated warnings and that he ended the MS extended support contract that would have prevented these outages, while NHS Wales continued with the MS contract, then that is more than enough grounds for blaming the government.
There is a reason Jeremy Hunt has said nothing at all since the incidents started.
Would a cabinet minister have a direct line of sight over the renewal of software support products? I suspect that the answer is no - that doesn't mean that responsibility can be avoided but how much centralised command is there? To take the Welsh example, who made the decision about software support there? I assume you can confidently provide evidence that it was a directly made political decision.
Your argument looks hyperbolic and difficult to maintain.
This is from May 2015. The hacking possibilities were known at the time. Hunt ducked it.
Go and listen to the ex digital director .. no point in posting all this crap. Hunt told the trusts to update their software with fixes but some didn't.. I may be dreaming this but go listen for yourself.
"The NHS failed to heed repeated warnings that its out-of-date computer systems were vulnerable to the sort of cyber attack that brought it to its knees, it was claimed today.
Jeremy Hunt, the Health Secretary was accused of ignoring extensive warning signs before an unprecedented cyber attack which plunged the NHS into chaos."
If true, then I take it Jeremy Hunt will be unceremoniously dumped from his position after the General Election.
Well, Gove needs a job.
There’s a post on the Guardian’s page on the cyber-attack, as follows 'Not that that stopped Amber Rudd rushing onto television to tell everyone it was in no way the Tories' fault despite being their remit and their lack of funding, while NHS Wales was fine.’
Edit: BBC Wales says Welsh NHS has recently invested in IT security.
Yes, NHS Wales came through unscathed but NHS Scotland didn't. Plus all the other non-governmental organisations hit as well. This kind of limits the ability to attack the government.
It's Labour's general uselessness that limits their ability to attack the government.
If it is true that Jeremy Hunt ignored repeated warnings and that he ended the MS extended support contract that would have prevented these outages, while NHS Wales continued with the MS contract, then that is more than enough grounds for blaming the government.
There is a reason Jeremy Hunt has said nothing at all since the incidents started.
Would a cabinet minister have a direct line of sight over the renewal of software support products? I suspect that the answer is no - that doesn't mean that responsibility can be avoided but how much centralised command is there? To take the Welsh example, who made the decision about software support there? I assume you can confidently provide evidence that it was a directly made political decision.
Your argument looks hyperbolic and difficult to maintain.
This is from May 2015. The hacking possibilities were known at the time. Hunt ducked it.
Go and listen to the ex digital director .. no point in posting all this crap. Hunt told the trusts to update their software with fixes but some didn't.. I may be dreaming this but go listen for yourself.
Where is the evidence ? I want to see memos or emails. Not some Tory appointee saying something. Hunt and the Tories flunked on their watch.
It's Labour's general uselessness that limits their ability to attack the government.
If it is true that Jeremy Hunt ignored repeated warnings and that he ended the MS extended support contract that would have prevented these outages, while NHS Wales continued with the MS contract, then that is more than enough grounds for blaming the government.
There is a reason Jeremy Hunt has said nothing at all since the incidents started.
Would a cabinet minister have a direct line of sight over the renewal of software support products? I suspect that the answer is no - that doesn't mean that responsibility can be avoided but how much centralised command is there? To take the Welsh example, who made the decision about software support there? I assume you can confidently provide evidence that it was a directly made political decision.
Your argument looks hyperbolic and difficult to maintain.
This is from May 2015. The hacking possibilities were known at the time. Hunt ducked it.
Go and listen to the ex digital director .. no point in posting all this crap. Hunt told the trusts to update their software with fixes but some didn't.. I may be dreaming this but go listen for yourself.
Surely this confirms that Jeremy Hunt decided not to renew the national contract.
In my Simulation, Labour loses these seats but by less than 1000 votes:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark Bishop Auckland Blackpool South Bristol East Cardiff West Chorley Coventry South Darlington Enfield North Hampstead and Kilburn Newport East Scunthorpe Southampton, Test
I have done a simulation for GE 2017 England only. Simple assumption:
UKIP loses 0.66 of its votes. Of that figure, CON gets 0.8, LAB gets 0.15, LD gets 0.05 [ The last maybe a bit silly but I had to put 0.05 somewhere. As you will see , it hardly makes any difference ]
No other changes. That means, LAB retains its votes and so does the LD and the Greens.
Results are as follows:
CON 344, LAB 185, LD 3, GRN 1.
In the coming days, I will make the model more sophisticated by entering regional variations.
Even if UKIP lost all its votes, split according to those shares you give, Con would only get up to ~360
Adding in a Scotland factor perhaps adds another handful, but to reach anywhere near 400 we need regional swings in Midlands and North, which must mean smaller swings elsewhere.
Yeah, but this is all based on the assumption there is zero Lab to Con swing.
The polling figures for Labour look like that is not far off.
A couple of points either way will make a big difference. At the moment it looks as though the Tories are up 10, which would imply a bigger share of the UKIP votes, or some swing from labour cancelled by swing from UKIP->Labour.
The Tory vote will turn out.
The Labour vote won't.
Voting against May is not a great reason to go to the polls, especially when you have to vote for Corbyn.
That's probably as close as you can get in one sentence.
I think we could well be heading for polling disaster, people saying they will vote Labour but not turning out on the day.
The supplementals are horrific no matter what the headline figures say.
Go and listen to the ex digital director .. no point in posting all this crap. Hunt told the trusts to update their software with fixes but some didn't.. I may be dreaming this but go listen for yourself.
I don't much like Hunt .. but the hunting of Hunt seems ridiculous.
NHS England has ample well-paid senior management. Very well-paid.
I have done a simulation for GE 2017 England only. Simple assumption:
UKIP loses 0.66 of its votes. Of that figure, CON gets 0.8, LAB gets 0.15, LD gets 0.05 [ The last maybe a bit silly but I had to put 0.05 somewhere. As you will see , it hardly makes any difference ]
No other changes. That means, LAB retains its votes and so does the LD and the Greens.
Results are as follows:
CON 344, LAB 185, LD 3, GRN 1.
In the coming days, I will make the model more sophisticated by entering regional variations.
Even if UKIP lost all its votes, split according to those shares you give, Con would only get up to ~360
Adding in a Scotland factor perhaps adds another handful, but to reach anywhere near 400 we need regional swings in Midlands and North, which must mean smaller swings elsewhere.
Yeah, but this is all based on the assumption there is zero Lab to Con swing.
The polling figures for Labour look like that is not far off.
A couple of points either way will make a big difference. At the moment it looks as though the Tories are up 10, which would imply a bigger share of the UKIP votes, or some swing from labour cancelled by swing from UKIP->Labour.
The Tory vote will turn out.
The Labour vote won't.
Voting against May is not a great reason to go to the polls, especially when you have to vote for Corbyn.
That's probably as close as you can get in one sentence.
I think we could well be heading for polling disaster, people saying they will vote Labour but not turning out on the day.
The supplementals are horrific no matter what the headline figures say.
Alistair, what would you like to see happen after June 8th/9th re Labour?
In my Simulation, Labour loses these seats but by less than 1000 votes:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark Lab hold ~5k Bishop Auckland Con Gain by 3.5k Blackpool South Con Gain Bristol East Lab Hold 4k Cardiff West Lab hold 6k Chorley Con Gain 5k Coventry South Con Gain 3k Darlington Con Gain 3k Enfield NorthCon Gain 1k Hampstead and Kilburn Lab Hold 1k Newport East Con Gain 5k Scunthorpe Con Gain 3k Southampton, Test Con Gain ~ 3.8k
I've not adjusted regionally, so please bear in mind
I still find it pretty hard to believe that Labour can match their performance under Ed Miliband in terms of the popular vote. In Scotland their vote is likely to be down again. In 2015 they got 24.3% of the vote, they will do very well to break 20% this time. In Wales they got 36.9%, can't see them matching that either.
In England Ed actually did quite well, hence the gain in seats. This time there are going to be losses, possibly 50+. There is a lot of polling evidence showing direct Labour to Tory switchers outside London and the north west. The Lib Dems are being pathetic but they are not losing vote share to Labour. How do they get to 30.4% of the vote? I just don't see it. Corbyn will do well to match Brown's 29%. In fact I don't think he will.
In my Simulation, Labour loses these seats but by less than 1000 votes:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark Bishop Auckland Blackpool South Bristol East Cardiff West Chorley Coventry South Darlington Enfield North Hampstead and Kilburn Newport East Scunthorpe Southampton, Test
Lol Just ran a simulation using the 89% for Tory to Tory etc etc from that Yougov.
Not adjusted for Scotland, Wales or NI so its a bit out - but I have Labour on 143 seats.
And Sheffield Hallam is amongst them
Sounds like my early 2015 SNP foresting that saw them on 48 seats but losing Banff and Buchan.
The Lib Dems aren't exactly surging I'm afraid. I hope retention of the vote is superior to 57% in Hallam, it probably will be. But as soon as you start making exceptions for this or that you're no longer modelling but guessing.
I still find it pretty hard to believe that Labour can match their performance under Ed Miliband in terms of the popular vote. In Scotland their vote is likely to be down again. In 2015 they got 24.3% of the vote, they will do very well to break 20% this time. In Wales they got 36.9%, can't see them matching that either.
In England Ed actually did quite well, hence the gain in seats. This time there are going to be losses, possibly 50+. There is a lot of polling evidence showing direct Labour to Tory switchers outside London and the north west. The Lib Dems are being pathetic but they are not losing vote share to Labour. How do they get to 30.4% of the vote? I just don't see it. Corbyn will do well to match Brown's 29%. In fact I don't think he will.
In my Simulation, Labour loses these seats but by less than 1000 votes:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark Lab hold ~5k Bishop Auckland Con Gain by 3.5k Blackpool South Con Gain Bristol East Lab Hold 4k Cardiff West Lab hold 6k Chorley Con Gain 5k Coventry South Con Gain 3k Darlington Con Gain 3k Enfield NorthCon Gain 1k Hampstead and Kilburn Lab Hold 1k Newport East Con Gain 5k Scunthorpe Con Gain 3k Southampton, Test Con Gain ~ 3.8k
I've not adjusted regionally, so please bear in mind
You're expecting a 12% swing in Newport East but no swing in Cardiff West or Bristol East ???
I still find it pretty hard to believe that Labour can match their performance under Ed Miliband in terms of the popular vote. In Scotland their vote is likely to be down again. In 2015 they got 24.3% of the vote, they will do very well to break 20% this time. In Wales they got 36.9%, can't see them matching that either.
In England Ed actually did quite well, hence the gain in seats. This time there are going to be losses, possibly 50+. There is a lot of polling evidence showing direct Labour to Tory switchers outside London and the north west. The Lib Dems are being pathetic but they are not losing vote share to Labour. How do they get to 30.4% of the vote? I just don't see it. Corbyn will do well to match Brown's 29%. In fact I don't think he will.
Well, Martin Boon thinks it will be 27-28%.
He is much better placed than me to make that guess but that is exactly where I am.
I still find it pretty hard to believe that Labour can match their performance under Ed Miliband in terms of the popular vote. In Scotland their vote is likely to be down again. In 2015 they got 24.3% of the vote, they will do very well to break 20% this time. In Wales they got 36.9%, can't see them matching that either.
In England Ed actually did quite well, hence the gain in seats. This time there are going to be losses, possibly 50+. There is a lot of polling evidence showing direct Labour to Tory switchers outside London and the north west. The Lib Dems are being pathetic but they are not losing vote share to Labour. How do they get to 30.4% of the vote? I just don't see it. Corbyn will do well to match Brown's 29%. In fact I don't think he will.
Well, Martin Boon thinks it will be 27-28%.
We have to go by all the evidence we have. ICM runs a heavy "shy Tory" adjustment. Also, Baxter after aggregating all recent polls [ which already have adjustments ] then adds another 1.1% swing from Labour to the Tories.
There are very few direct Labour to Tory switchers. There are massive ~ 78% of UKIP switchers ~ transfers from UKIP to Tory.
There are huge 2015 UKIP votes in the East of England. All those transfers do not give the Tories a single gain. What a waste !
Thanks - worth detailed study. Some notes that may not be entirely intuitive (you can read them for yourself, of course, but maybe these nuggets are worth highlighting):
1. The real gap in Britain is no longer class (Tories ahead by 12 in the upper-income group and 11 in the rest, meh). It's age. Labour is well ahead among the 18-24 group but also among the 35-49 group. Tories are well ahead in the 59-64 group and massively among the elderly (57-14) 2. There is a bit of Con-Lab/Lab-Con interplay (4 and 8 points) but nothing significant. 3. The decline in the LD vote is helping the Tories, not Labour (20-10) 4. The decline in UKIP even more so (52-6!), and it's huge. Only 1 in 6 UKIP voters in 2015 plan to vote UKIP this time. UKIP is attracting 0 votes from anyone else. 5. Stated certainty to vote is almost identical for everyone. 6. There has been a leaning among don't knows (who are 18% of the total) to Labour during the campaign. A week earlier the DKs were leaning 15-10 to Con. Now they're 17-15 to Lab. This doesn't show up in polls since they're still don't knows. This no doubt reflects Labour's higher profile campaign, but probably most of these won't vote. 7. Of those who've decided, few think they might change their minds (Con 5, Lab 11, LD 22).
What does this mean for betting? Well, a constitituency where you'd expect the Tories to do above average would have a big retired proportion and a big UKIP proportion (though this may have some double counting). Some of the coastal seats, maybe? Labour should do above average in the opposite case (Brighton Kemptown springs to mind, maybe Cambridge?). I wouldn't bet against Caroline Lucas either.
It seems that all across the nation(s) Tories have taken Tessy's Nasty party speech as an aspiration rather than a reproach.
All parties have their absolute loons, dare one say even the SNP .. .. but the spate of Conservative elected dip sh*ts on twitter seems to marry with their party poll rating - on the high side !!
In my Simulation, Labour loses these seats but by less than 1000 votes:
Bermondsey and Old Southwark Lab hold ~5k Bishop Auckland Con Gain by 3.5k Blackpool South Con Gain Bristol East Lab Hold 4k Cardiff West Lab hold 6k Chorley Con Gain 5k Coventry South Con Gain 3k Darlington Con Gain 3k Enfield NorthCon Gain 1k Hampstead and Kilburn Lab Hold 1k Newport East Con Gain 5k Scunthorpe Con Gain 3k Southampton, Test Con Gain ~ 3.8k
I've not adjusted regionally, so please bear in mind
You're expecting a 12% swing in Newport East but no swing in Cardiff West or Bristol East ???
And no change in Hampstead ?
Lol Good spot, sorry that is Con Gain by 200 in Cardiff West. And Con Gain by 5k in Bristol East. And Con Gain by 4k in Hampstead ! Top marks for spotting the obvious internal inconsistencies.
I still find it pretty hard to believe that Labour can match their performance under Ed Miliband in terms of the popular vote. In Scotland their vote is likely to be down again. In 2015 they got 24.3% of the vote, they will do very well to break 20% this time. In Wales they got 36.9%, can't see them matching that either.
In England Ed actually did quite well, hence the gain in seats. This time there are going to be losses, possibly 50+. There is a lot of polling evidence showing direct Labour to Tory switchers outside London and the north west. The Lib Dems are being pathetic but they are not losing vote share to Labour. How do they get to 30.4% of the vote? I just don't see it. Corbyn will do well to match Brown's 29%. In fact I don't think he will.
Well, Martin Boon thinks it will be 27-28%.
We have to go by all the evidence we have. ICM runs a heavy "shy Tory" adjustment. Also, Baxter after aggregating all recent polls [ which already have adjustments ] then adds another 1.1% swing from Labour to the Tories.
There are very few direct Labour to Tory switchers. There are massive ~ 78% of UKIP switchers ~ transfers from UKIP to Tory.
There are huge 2015 UKIP votes in the East of England. All those transfers do not give the Tories a single gain. What a waste !
One of the points I repeatedly made before the 2015 election was that the UKIP vote made the Tory vote vastly more efficient by reducing the overwhelming majorities in safe seats and eliminating "wasted" votes in guaranteed losers. There is little doubt that this election will see that efficiency unwind somewhat and the east of England is a good example. The increase in the Tory vote to the mid 40s, however, will offset that and then some given the bonus such a share is given by FPTP. If I am right that Labour will slip back marginally as well this brings more seats into play.
The screeching about turn from those who previously constructed endless arguments against free prescriptions will be a joy to behold.
Given this isn't the Holyrood election what's she on about. Unless it's national Tory policy it irrelevant.
This is like the Slab Holyrood campaign in inverse. It is either a very clever or very stupid strategy.
It might just be as crudely simple as the SCons deciding they need a nice, cuddly initiative to distract from all the recent racist, bigot, cock boasting stuff, with the added bonus of them not having to take any actual responsibility for implementing it.
they need a nice, cuddly initiative to distract from all the recent racist, bigot, cock boasting stuff, with the added bonus of them not having to take any actual responsibility for implementing it.
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.
They hardly did anything in the first 3 weeks. At some point they will inevitably join in this election campaign thing. What will happen then I wonder?
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.
They hardly did anything in the first 3 weeks. At some point they will inevitably join in this election campaign thing. What will happen then I wonder?
I wonder if the Conservatives were worried that Labour would collapse and that the LibDems would be the beneficiaries.
Labour at 30% in the polls gives a greater threat for Conservatives to vote against than the 'nice' LibDems at 30% would.
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.
Chortle ....
You can certainly smell the Tory fear in the air as they peruse substantial double digit poll leads.
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.
There's a theory of political campaigning that says attacks effectiveness fades over time, so different attacks have to be made and the worst ones have to come latest in the campaign.
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.
Alternatively, they have a considered plan and are sticking to it. Whereas Labour, to paraphrase PJ O'Rourke on Trump, have set fire to their trousers to attract the media.
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.
Alternatively, they have a considered plan and are sticking to it. Whereas Labour, to paraphrase PJ O'Rourke on Trump, have set fire to their trousers to attract the media.
More likely trying to bury bad news like the NHS hack. Give the papers something else to lead the front pages.
Actually she says Salmond defines a generation as 35 years.
When asked how long she thought “a generation” should be, Davidson said: “What was Alex Salmond’s definition? He said that between the ̓̓79 and 2014 referendum that was about a generation. That works for me.”
Silly definition really if (if!) he did say that, because the comparable referendum to 1979 was the one on setting up Holyrood in 1997 - so roughly 18 years a generation which sounds more like it (17 more years until the next referendum on Scotland's status would fit with that).
However long It is it's clear that the SNP believed they had waited long enough. This is starting to look like a bad miscalculation - what I thought was well-judged posturing that Sturgeon didn't believe in but would throw red meat to her left flank of irreconcilables looks as though under circumstances she clearly wasn't expecting it has left her vulnerable on the right.
However, in her further defence, the way things are going on Scotland at the moment it could easily be now or never for that second referendum.
The average age of a mother giving birth in Scotland in 2014 was 30.1. On average fathers were 2.6 years older. So 35 is closer to the mark regardless of political reasoning.
YAWN, it is when Scotland wants it that matters not some bollox Tory made up garbage. Feck all to do with anyone outside Scotland.
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.
Chortle ....
You can certainly smell the Tory fear in the air as they peruse substantial double digit poll leads.
I take it you are leaving the ARSE until the final stretch.
For me these pictures of the younger Corbyn sucking up to those IRA murderers at a time when they were still murdering, Hamas and now Assad are yet more evidence that this person is completely unfit to be a member of Parliament, let alone PM. But I have yet to see much evidence that it has any traction with a significant number of people less interested in politics.
Tories are panicking. They did not resort to this in the first three weeks.
They hardly did anything in the first 3 weeks. At some point they will inevitably join in this election campaign thing. What will happen then I wonder?
I wonder if the Conservatives were worried that Labour would collapse and that the LibDems would be the beneficiaries.
Labour at 30% in the polls gives a greater threat for Conservatives to vote against than the 'nice' LibDems at 30% would.
Oh, I see. The Tories were concerned about the well-being of the Labour Party !
Norman Lamb seems to be putting out lots of appeals on Facebook for help in North Norfolk - I see the odds make it a 50/50
Lamb to the slaughter, I’m afraid.
I did caution the LibDem posters here that ignoring the result of the referendum was not likely to be a vote winner. I recall I was soundly rubbished by a chortling foxinsoxuk & co.
It is sad, as a voice for the LibDems is on the whole not a bad thing.
But, their voice after June is destined to be a small, quiet one. I think < 10 seats.
Covered yesterday , does it mention that she had left the company before the incident and therefore could hardly have been involved. Usual Tory right wing propaganda. Surprised you read the SUN I must say, very damning.
I have done a simulation for GE 2017 England only. Simple assumption:
UKIP loses 0.66 of its votes. Of that figure, CON gets 0.8, LAB gets 0.15, LD gets 0.05 [ The last maybe a bit silly but I had to put 0.05 somewhere. As you will see , it hardly makes any difference ]
No other changes. That means, LAB retains its votes and so does the LD and the Greens.
Results are as follows:
CON 344, LAB 185, LD 3, GRN 1.
In the coming days, I will make the model more sophisticated by entering regional variations.
That's an interesting simulation and probably quite close to the worst realistic outcome for the Tories assuming as it does, zero gains from either Labour or LibDems. I'd argue mildly about how you've allocated the 2/3rds loss of UKIP votes. Personally I'd have gone 15% DNV, 60% Tory, 20% Labour and yes 5% LibDem. My guess is that would leave the Tories with the smallest of overall majorities.
They're his England only totals. Even then it all seems a little unlikely on current Polling.
The Opinium tables are showing a Lab to Con swing in England of 3.25% which would result in 29 Tory gains from Labour. Labour would on that basis end up on 203 plus any seats clawed back from the SNP.
Comments
Not adjusted for Scotland, Wales or NI so its a bit out - but I have Labour on 143 seats.
And Sheffield Hallam is amongst them
https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/863682837232459777
A Labour defeat there is a realistic prospect, but it could just as easily be a comfortable hold. As in any general election, there will be results in this one that surprise on both sides of the average national swing.
Now we know that's likely too low but so is 57% for the Lib Dems.
Why would I use 100% ?
This is from May 2015. The hacking possibilities were known at the time. Hunt ducked it.
For the national, I used, compared to 2015, Con +9%, Lab -, LD -0.8%, UKIP -9%, GRN +0.8%
Con 89 10 25 69
Lab 4 80 13 7
Lib Dem 5 7 56 1
UKIP 0 0 0 23
It is the latest Yougov.
'either'
Chortle.
Great Labour manifesto - shame about the messenger! Oh well, maybe next time...
Con 98
Lab 97
Lib Dem 94
UKIP 100
I think this is ok as some people may well stay at home. Turnout is knocked down to 29.67 million.
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool South
Bristol East
Cardiff West
Chorley
Coventry South
Darlington
Enfield North
Hampstead and Kilburn
Newport East
Scunthorpe
Southampton, Test
The supplementals are horrific no matter what the headline figures say.
NHS England has ample well-paid senior management. Very well-paid.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2016/07/senior-appointments/
Do they bear no responsibility ?
The salary for the Chief Clinical Information Officer with bonus was 190 k.
or ....
Spurs points total is half the number of Labour MP's on June 9th
or ....
Spurs points total is half the highest level of the PB Scottish Tory Klaxon.
In England Ed actually did quite well, hence the gain in seats. This time there are going to be losses, possibly 50+. There is a lot of polling evidence showing direct Labour to Tory switchers outside London and the north west. The Lib Dems are being pathetic but they are not losing vote share to Labour. How do they get to 30.4% of the vote? I just don't see it. Corbyn will do well to match Brown's 29%. In fact I don't think he will.
https://twitter.com/Joannechocolat/status/863689175563988992
Anybody who is not Corbynite or sympathetic towards McDonnell is some kind of Tory to them.
https://twitter.com/IsolatedBrit/status/863649855331282944
It seems that all across the nation(s) Tories have taken Tessy's Nasty party speech as an aspiration rather than a reproach.
This is like the Slab Holyrood campaign in inverse. It is either a very clever or very stupid strategy.
And no change in Hampstead ?
So some seven hours before the vote.
We sure this isn't a photoshop job?
There are very few direct Labour to Tory switchers. There are massive ~ 78% of UKIP switchers ~ transfers from UKIP to Tory.
There are huge 2015 UKIP votes in the East of England. All those transfers do not give the Tories a single gain. What a waste !
1. The real gap in Britain is no longer class (Tories ahead by 12 in the upper-income group and 11 in the rest, meh). It's age. Labour is well ahead among the 18-24 group but also among the 35-49 group. Tories are well ahead in the 59-64 group and massively among the elderly (57-14)
2. There is a bit of Con-Lab/Lab-Con interplay (4 and 8 points) but nothing significant.
3. The decline in the LD vote is helping the Tories, not Labour (20-10)
4. The decline in UKIP even more so (52-6!), and it's huge. Only 1 in 6 UKIP voters in 2015 plan to vote UKIP this time. UKIP is attracting 0 votes from anyone else.
5. Stated certainty to vote is almost identical for everyone.
6. There has been a leaning among don't knows (who are 18% of the total) to Labour during the campaign. A week earlier the DKs were leaning 15-10 to Con. Now they're 17-15 to Lab. This doesn't show up in polls since they're still don't knows. This no doubt reflects Labour's higher profile campaign, but probably most of these won't vote.
7. Of those who've decided, few think they might change their minds (Con 5, Lab 11, LD 22).
What does this mean for betting? Well, a constitituency where you'd expect the Tories to do above average would have a big retired proportion and a big UKIP proportion (though this may have some double counting). Some of the coastal seats, maybe? Labour should do above average in the opposite case (Brighton Kemptown springs to mind, maybe Cambridge?). I wouldn't bet against Caroline Lucas either.
Top marks for spotting the obvious internal inconsistencies.
@PolhomeEditor: Nicola Sturgeon says that if you ignore literacy and numeracy, Scottish education is doing well. Righto. #marr
Oh...
Today's councillors are tomorrow's parliamentary candidates.
I know you're no fan of Cameron but he was right about too many tweets.
Oh...
Which is bang in the middle of the previous two welsh Yougovs.
I do however have Plaid as an invariant, unmoving blob...
@KennyFarq: / The problem is, she has already moved past that position by saying it is dead, and instead moved on to indyref2. Inherent contradiction.
@KennyFarq: / Bottom line: Sturgeon is now desperate for Scottish independence not to be the defining characteristic of Scotland's debate on Brexit.
PS - Mr Divvie this was not meant as a slight on you.
11:10am - TCM - Passport To Pimlico.
Followed by an interesting analysis on the necessity for the House of Lords :
12:50pm - TCM - Kind Hearts And Coronets
https://twitter.com/rabberoonies/status/863693220500426753
'Jeremy has been on a… journey': Labour's shadow foreign secretary flounders when confronted by a clip of Corbyn condemning 'dangerous' Nato
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4504192/Thornberry-confronted-clip-Corbyn-condemning-Nato.html
Her big problem is she's got the tendency to come out with some ridiculous stuff if she's under pressure.
Cameron is still by far the most impressive Tory (if he is still a member of the party that is).
Labour at 30% in the polls gives a greater threat for Conservatives to vote against than the 'nice' LibDems at 30% would.
You can certainly smell the Tory fear in the air as they peruse substantial double digit poll leads.
Still on 54 seats.
WAK
BRS
DCT
D&G
Edi South (To the Tories !)
One for @MalcolmG here though:
SNP Gain! Orkney & Shetland. Please note I have backed Carmichael with cold cash before anyone screams about how I'm being bias to the SNP.
Quite amusing to watch.
I did caution the LibDem posters here that ignoring the result of the referendum was not likely to be a vote winner. I recall I was soundly rubbished by a chortling foxinsoxuk & co.
It is sad, as a voice for the LibDems is on the whole not a bad thing.
But, their voice after June is destined to be a small, quiet one. I think < 10 seats.
Scandals can blow up in Scotland like nowhere on earth.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/997006/tasmina-ahmed-sheikh-snp-general-election-legal-watchdog-probe/
Covered yesterday , does it mention that she had left the company before the incident and therefore could hardly have been involved. Usual Tory right wing propaganda. Surprised you read the SUN I must say, very damning.