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But they also have the Tories up 2 or 3 in the SE, and up 4 or 5 in the SW. The usual caveat about smallish subsamples applies, but this confirms the picture painted by other polls: little change since 2015 in the relative balance of support between Con and Lab in the south of England outside London, and maybe even a slight swing to Lab.brokenwheel said:
If we are to believe Comres then Labour is well down on 2015 in every region, including East Mids btw, except the South East (+6) and South West (+7).NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
I see there are still posters denying it all - Labour must be below 25%, etc. But without evidence to the contrry, it seems reasonable to believe the polls.
Of course, given the GB shares, that must imply massive swings to the Tories elsewhere - which we see in the ComRes poll: a 10-point swing in the NW and an 8-point swing in Yorkshire and the Humber, for instance.
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If losing 1/5 th of your sitting councillors is called beating the shit, then, yes, Llafur beat the shit.surbiton said:
I can see that Llafur beating the shit out of everyone else.YBarddCwsc said:
Look at the map.justin124 said:
I grew up in Pembrokeshire and am aware of many non-Tory Independents. Quite a few were Labour.YBarddCwsc said:
I think that is correct. 80 per cent is a rough rule.Sean_F said:
Labour's Welsh vote was flattered by fielding more candidates than the other parties.
It's very difficult to attribute votes for Independents to other parties. My guess is that in places like Bridgend, Pembroke, Powys, Vale of Glamorgan , many Independents are Conservatives, whereas in the Valleys they're Labour supporters who've fallen out with the local party.
Labour did well in the cities -- they even gained seats in Swansea and Llanelli, and the losses in Cardiff were less than they should have been. Plaid Cymru did well in the rural areas.
I think this points to 6 Lab losses: Ynys Mon -> PC or Tory, and the 4 Welsh NE seats & Bridgend -> Tories.
I think Ceredigion is TCTC, and my bet for a surprise result would be the Rhondda where Chris Bryant has lost votes in every election.
https://twitter.com/siongwilym/status/860622162738257927/photo/1
Look at where the independents are. They are in the Tory seats.
Ynys Mon has zero Tory Councillors.
Yet, the Tories will either come first or a very close second next month.0 -
I did not say 35-44 will go Labour. I said 18-44 will go Labour. Clearly.RobD said:
Oh right, you are considering 18-44, rather than the three bins separately. Suspect 18-34 will go Labour, but 35-44 will go Tory.surbiton said:
18-24 Con 26, Lab 51RobD said:
Safe to assume? The ComRes subsamples have 35-44 with the Tories marginally ahead. For it to be safe you'd assume a 5ish point lead for Labour.surbiton said:
So, it will be fair to assume that within ages 18-44 more will vote Labour. Labour will be massacred by the 45+ vote.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Gallowgate said:Does ComRes breakdown by age group?
He's an excerpt
The only age groups more likely to vote Labour than Conservative are 18-24 year olds (51% v 26%) and 25-34 year olds (51% v 28%).
These age groups are considerably less likely to vote than older, more Conservative people.
Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock !
25-34 Con 28, Lab 51 (looks suspect to yours truly)
35-44 Con 39, Lab 37
It is more than safe to assume. It's an almost bloody guarantee ! Maybe even including those upto 54 years of age.
Can we conclude more taxpayers vote Labour than the Tories ?
If we look at this:
18-24 Con 26, Lab 51
25-34 Con 28, Lab 51
35-44 Con 39, Lab 37
45-54 Con 44, Lab 29
Labour could even be leading 18-54. [ I have not done the weightings. So please take care ]
Labour does get hammered in my age group. Shame on my cohorts.
Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock !0 -
I'm glad that everyone got to hear Hungarian rap so that others get to understand what I regularly have to put up with.0
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AlastairMeeks said:
I'm glad that everyone got to hear Hungarian rap so that others get to understand what I regularly have to put up with.
Glad I'm not playing playing the Eurovision drinking game. This Hungarian entry ticked so many boxes, my liver would be fecked.0 -
Yeah, thats why I said "Oh right, you are considering 18-44, rather than the three bins separately."surbiton said:
I did not say 35-44 will go Labour. I said 18-44 will go Labour. Clearly.RobD said:
Oh right, you are considering 18-44, rather than the three bins separately. Suspect 18-34 will go Labour, but 35-44 will go Tory.surbiton said:
18-24 Con 26, Lab 51RobD said:
Safe to assume? The ComRes subsamples have 35-44 with the Tories marginally ahead. For it to be safe you'd assume a 5ish point lead for Labour.surbiton said:
So, it will be fair to assume that within ages 18-44 more will vote Labour. Labour will be massacred by the 45+ vote.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Gallowgate said:Does ComRes breakdown by age group?
He's an excerpt
The only age groups more likely to vote Labour than Conservative are 18-24 year olds (51% v 26%) and 25-34 year olds (51% v 28%).
These age groups are considerably less likely to vote than older, more Conservative people.
Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock !
25-34 Con 28, Lab 51 (looks suspect to yours truly)
35-44 Con 39, Lab 37
It is more than safe to assume. It's an almost bloody guarantee ! Maybe even including those upto 54 years of age.
Can we conclude more taxpayers vote Labour than the Tories ?0 -
FWIW, I estimated the outcome of the election at Con 387, Lab 178, SNP 48, Lib Dem 13, Plaid Cymru 4, and others 20 back on May 1st. I've seen nothing to make me shift position radically. I still believe, and will probably continue to do so right the way until polling day, barring further radical shifts, that the polls are over-estimating Labour support and under-estimating that for the Liberal Democrats. The Ukip vote appears to be imploding so badly that I'm starting to have more confidence that a Tory share of around 45% may not be so far wide of the mark.
I don't buy Labour on 30%+, and I think there'll be differential swings in the provinces versus the big cities that will favour the Tories. But nor do I believe that Labour will do catastrophically in terms of vote share, and they might even increase their already substantial majorities in some deep urban core areas. In approximate terms, my estimate would imply around fifty Conservative gains from Labour and half-a-dozen or so from the SNP, with an approximately even exchange of three or four seats with the Liberal Democrats (with their net gains coming from the SNP and Labour.)
About three dozen Labour seats would turn nominally Conservative on a 50% defection rate from the 2015 Ukip vote, and I reckon above average swings in the marginal seats, along with a modest but valuable Lab to Lib Dem defection rate, ought to be enough to get the Tories the rest of the way there.0 -
Well Welsh Labour have already distanced themselves from main manifesto saying they will have one of their own but they forgetting these are not Cardiff Bay electionsCasino_Royale said:
That figures.Sean_F said:
Labour's Welsh vote was flattered by fielding more candidates than the other parties.YBarddCwsc said:surbiton said:
In that case, shouldn't the pollsters also have asked about Independents if they are so numerous ?YBarddCwsc said:
Whoa .... In Welsh Local elections, the Independents are usually Tories. To get the Tory vote, a simple thing to do is to take 80 per cent of the Independent vote and put it in the Tory column.nunu said:
The yougov ,_2017surbiton said:
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
This gives Labour 472 councillors, and the Tories on 184 + 0.8 * 322 = 441 councillors.
I.e. Labour slightly ahead in the Locals, which is what the polling predicted for the Locals (from memory, Labour 28 per cent, Tories 26 per cent).
So, it looks to me as though the Tory tide will stop at Bridgend. The Tories won’t take the Newport seats.
Considering the allegations of bullying and infighting in Cardiff Labour, I am surprised they didn’t lose control of the Council. It was a very good result for Labour. I see now though they have deposed the old leader Phil Bale and have installed Huw ‘Tippex’ Thomas as the new leader.
“Tippex” Thomas was the Labour student who wanted the Welsh to spatter English cars with Tippex. He was one of the participants in the incredibly dirty Ceredigion election in 2015.
It's very difficult to attribute votes for Independents to other parties. My guess is that in places like Bridgend, Pembroke, Powys, Vale of Glamorgan , many Independents are Conservatives, whereas in the Valleys they're Labour supporters who've fallen out with the local party.
I think that also what helps is that Labour locally still has quite a strong Welsh identity.0 -
Well, it;s not really "nothing happened"surbiton said:
Oh yes ! Tory Party pledges to eliminate the deficit by 2015. What happened ?Fat_Steve said:
All this "costing" nonsense...surbiton said:
One of the strengths of the Labour Party in this campaign is that nobody expects Labour to win. Therefore, all these "costing" nonsense which Labour has to answer and the Tories don't will not make much of an impact this time.Omnium said:
Dr P - have you made up your mind? You've often expressed support for Corbyn, but (and I find this contradictory) you've also often said wise things. I'm sure you know without doubt that were Mr Corbyn to be elected we'd immediately be in a financial crisis. That crisis in itself will disable his plans. His plans though are so raddled that even if the markets greeted him with joy they'd be unworkable. You have to know this - you're far too clever not to. Care to comment?NickPalmer said:By the way, do we have "made up my mind" figures broken down by party?
Many Labour voters who do not like Corbyn particularly, will still vote Labour to stop the landslide.
Yes. This geeky detail about whether we have or haven;t got a spare £250 billion.
As in 'I was planning to retire next month and buy a yacht, but my wife is obsessed with "costing" nonsense about mortgages and food.'
The Tories borrowed £100bn more than it had planned ! Nothing happened. The world did not collapse.
https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/gb/gb2015/ch1_gb2015.pdf#page=14
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending_in_the_United_Kingdom
Government Debt Interest - 39 Billion quid.
Call it, give or take, 600 quid for every man woman child and baby in the UK per year.
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Azerbaijan, another non-EU member
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Martin Boon's twitter feed tonight is a must read for anyone betting on the general election, or just interested in general election polling.0
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They are in the rural areas! Pembrokeshire - where I grew up - was Labour held from 1950 - 1970 and again from 1992 - 2005. Pembroke South & Carmarthen West did not go Tory until 2010. At some point I expect to see those seats Labour again. I remember canvassing for the Local Elections there in 1973 and was struck by the number of people who were genuinely puzzled at being asked to support a candidate bearing a party label. I regularly received the response - in strong Labour areas - of ' What does politics have to do with local government?' It was simply not part of the culture there in that people did not think in those terms. It has changed a bit now , but even today only circa 40% of County Councillors there have a party label.YBarddCwsc said:
Look at the map.justin124 said:
I grew up in Pembrokeshire and am aware of many non-Tory Independents. Quite a few were Labour.YBarddCwsc said:
I think that is correct. 80 per cent is a rough rule.Sean_F said:
Labour's Welsh vote was flattered by fielding more candidates than the other parties.
It's very difficult to attribute votes for Independents to other parties. My guess is that in places like Bridgend, Pembroke, Powys, Vale of Glamorgan , many Independents are Conservatives, whereas in the Valleys they're Labour supporters who've fallen out with the local party.
Labour did well in the cities -- they even gained seats in Swansea and Llanelli, and the losses in Cardiff were less than they should have been. Plaid Cymru did well in the rural areas.
I think this points to 6 Lab losses: Ynys Mon -> PC or Tory, and the 4 Welsh NE seats & Bridgend -> Tories.
I think Ceredigion is TCTC, and my bet for a surprise result would be the Rhondda where Chris Bryant has lost votes in every election.
https://twitter.com/siongwilym/status/860622162738257927/photo/1
Look at where the independents are. They are in the Tory seats.
Ynys Mon has zero Tory Councillors.
Yet, the Tories will either come first or a very close second next month.0 -
No, they didn't! It was 37.77726%!MarkSenior said:
Excluding NI they got more than 38% in 2015RobD said:
Except it isn't true. The PBV has the Tories on 38, which is higher than what they got in 2015. That's forgetting that comparing locals with a GE is a fools errand.surbiton said:
Thanks, Mark. You know these facts far better than me.MarkSenior said:
Not really , overall they fell a little short of their 2015 GE vote share . Did better in some areas such as NE but they had done very badly in 2013 hence the big gains .surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.
You know how I am voting this time ? You can use that for the next 5 years !!0 -
They could have done even more of it, e.g. amend the triple lock so that the basic state pension recovers in value faster compared to mean earnings at times of high inflation.kle4 said:
It was smart to court the grey vote. If only a little can be brought back, it's very helpful.surbiton said:
Triple lock !justin124 said:
Plaid only had 1% to start with! More likely is that some UKIP voters are going back to Labour.chestnut said:
My theory is:kle4 said:
It's one possible scenario.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Is that not pilling up votes in areas they are already well aheadFrancisUrquhart said:
The uptick has to be students...has to be. Labour aren't even ahead with public sector workers or the working class.Razedabode said:#ComRes
Most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism
May 47%
Corbyn 14%
#Comres
Best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit
May 50%
Corbyn 15%
And Labour are at 32%. Right.
a - Polls are just wrong - there is some reason for believing this might be the case, given anecdata and Labour struggles in many areas in locals and mayoralties
b - Piling up votes in safe seats, losing elsewhere - Similar to a), but would mean polls could be right even as Labour's struggles are genuine and would be repeated at a GE
c - There is a surge for Labour and Corbyn for some reason (fear of a big Tory majority, nonvoters saying they will vote Labour, popular policies overcoming doubts over Corbyn, sclerotic LD vote).
a) They are picking up around 1% of the electorate from the Lib Dems;
b) They are picking up around 2% of the electorate from the Greens;
c) They are picking up around 1% of the electorate from Plaid;
d) They are picking up DNVs who will not actually vote when it comes to it;
e) These votes are in overwhelmingly safe seats - Labour Urbans/Tory suburbans
I don't think there is any significant swing to the Tories in SE/SW or East.
2-3% of the oldie vote is worth having. Just a reminder amid all this nonsense about pensioners being filthy rich - pensioners with only the state pension receive about half as much as a person on minimum wage.0 -
You are a bloody tease.TheScreamingEagles said:Martin Boon's twitter feed tonight is a must read for anyone betting on the general election, or just interested in general election polling.
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Why?TheScreamingEagles said:Martin Boon's twitter feed tonight is a must read for anyone betting on the general election, or just interested in general election polling.
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You are missing the point, if any of that is true than Nick's anecdotal evidence must be wide of the mark since Labour should be in collapse outside of the South.NeilVW said:
But they also have the Tories up 2 or 3 in the SE, and up 4 or 5 in the SW. The usual caveat about smallish subsamples applies, but this confirms the picture painted by other polls: little change since 2015 in the relative balance of support between Con and Lab in the south of England outside London, and maybe even a slight swing to Lab.brokenwheel said:
If we are to believe Comres then Labour is well down on 2015 in every region, including East Mids btw, except the South East (+6) and South West (+7).NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
I see there are still posters denying it all - Labour must be below 25%, etc. But without evidence to the contrry, it seems reasonable to believe the polls.
Of course, given the GB shares, that must imply massive swings to the Tories elsewhere - which we see in the ComRes poll: a 10-point swing in the NW and an 8-point swing in Yorkshire and the Humber, for instance.
It would also contradict the poll's own figures on Labour voter retention firming up if the Labour increase is purely down to it gaining heavily on 2015 in the South of England outside of London more than it is haemorrhaging votes everywhere else.0 -
In 2015 the Tories polled 37.8% in GB.MarkSenior said:
Excluding NI they got more than 38% in 2015RobD said:
Except it isn't true. The PBV has the Tories on 38, which is higher than what they got in 2015. That's forgetting that comparing locals with a GE is a fools errand.surbiton said:
Thanks, Mark. You know these facts far better than me.MarkSenior said:
Not really , overall they fell a little short of their 2015 GE vote share . Did better in some areas such as NE but they had done very badly in 2013 hence the big gains .surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.
You know how I am voting this time ? You can use that for the next 5 years !!0 -
AUSTRALIA
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It's not to do with a specific poll, but exactly what Labour are polling at the moment, check out his entire feed from tonight, but here's a feeler.RobD said:
You are a bloody tease.TheScreamingEagles said:Martin Boon's twitter feed tonight is a must read for anyone betting on the general election, or just interested in general election polling.
https://twitter.com/martinboon/with_replies
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/8634766181357322240 -
Cheers TSE.0
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When is Elbow due Sunil?Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, they didn't! It was 37.77726%!MarkSenior said:
Excluding NI they got more than 38% in 2015RobD said:
Except it isn't true. The PBV has the Tories on 38, which is higher than what they got in 2015. That's forgetting that comparing locals with a GE is a fools errand.surbiton said:
Thanks, Mark. You know these facts far better than me.MarkSenior said:
Not really , overall they fell a little short of their 2015 GE vote share . Did better in some areas such as NE but they had done very badly in 2013 hence the big gains .surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.
You know how I am voting this time ? You can use that for the next 5 years !!0 -
TSE is there any more polls out tonight?0
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LDs too high perhaps?TheScreamingEagles said:
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YouGov tonight, sometime between now and midnight.kjohnw said:TSE is there any more polls out tonight?
And ICM that usually comes out overnight/tomorrow morning.
There maybe others, but I've not asked/been told by other pollsters.0 -
I don’t doubt you are correct that there are some Independent Labour-inclined councillors. There are also some mavericks and some kippers who prefer the Independent label.justin124 said:
They are in the rural areas! Pembrokeshire - where I grew up - was Labour held from 1950 - 1970 and again from 1992 - 2005. Pembroke South & Carmarthen West did not go Tory until 2010. At some point I expect to see those seats Labour again. I remember canvassing for the Local Elections there in 1973 and was struck by the number of people who were genuinely puzzled at being asked to support a candidate bearing a party label. I regularly received the response - in strong Labour areas - of ' What does politics have to do with local government?' It was simply not part of the culture there in that people did not think in those terms. It has changed a bit now , but even today only circa 40% of County Councillors there have a party label.YBarddCwsc said:
Look at the map.justin124 said:
I grew up in Pembrokeshire and am aware of many non-Tory Independents. Quite a few were Labour.YBarddCwsc said:
I think that is correct. 80 per cent is a rough rule.Sean_F said:
Labour's Welsh vote was flattered by fielding more candidates than the other parties.
It's very difficult to attribute votes for Independents to other parties. My guess is that in places like Bridgend, Pembroke, Powys, Vale of Glamorgan , many Independents are Conservatives, whereas in the Valleys they're Labour supporters who've fallen out with the local party.
Labour did well in the cities -- they even gained seats in Swansea and Llanelli, and the losses in Cardiff were less than they should have been. Plaid Cymru did well in the rural areas.
I think this points to 6 Lab losses: Ynys Mon -> PC or Tory, and the 4 Welsh NE seats & Bridgend -> Tories.
I think Ceredigion is TCTC, and my bet for a surprise result would be the Rhondda where Chris Bryant has lost votes in every election.
https://twitter.com/siongwilym/status/860622162738257927/photo/1
Look at where the independents are. They are in the Tory seats.
Ynys Mon has zero Tory Councillors.
Yet, the Tories will either come first or a very close second next month.
Pembrokeshire is one of the areas of Wales in which the population is increasing. I think the demographics of the incomers are slowly making the seats less fertile for Labour.
In a very good year, Labour will take them. But, like the Gower, they are slowly moving away from Labour.0 -
"neeeeeebles!"0
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cheersTheScreamingEagles said:
YouGov tonight, sometime between now and midnight.kjohnw said:TSE is there any more polls out tonight?
And ICM that usually comes out overnight/tomorrow morning.
There maybe others, but I've not asked/been told by other pollsters.0 -
It's the Sunil on Sunday, BigJohnbigjohnowls said:
When is Elbow due Sunil?Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, they didn't! It was 37.77726%!MarkSenior said:
Excluding NI they got more than 38% in 2015RobD said:
Except it isn't true. The PBV has the Tories on 38, which is higher than what they got in 2015. That's forgetting that comparing locals with a GE is a fools errand.surbiton said:
Thanks, Mark. You know these facts far better than me.MarkSenior said:
Not really , overall they fell a little short of their 2015 GE vote share . Did better in some areas such as NE but they had done very badly in 2013 hence the big gains .surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.
You know how I am voting this time ? You can use that for the next 5 years !! 0 -
Someone more Tory than Kate?surbiton said:
They could hoover up quite a few Remain voters and hand the seat to the.......ToriesChris said:
As errors go, I scarcely think anything ranks in the same league as targeting Vauxhall, where the Lib Dems are starting from 4th place and 47 percentage points behind the incumbent.steve_garner said:LD campaign so far seems to have consisted of legalising cannabis and taking in another 50,000 refugees at a cost of £4.3 billion. Regardless of the merits of these policies they don't seem likely to improve their popularity.
Some posters on here thought that the PM talking about fox hunting was an error. Is talking about legalising drug use and letting in refugees a political error in a Brexity election? Just asking.0 -
is there? dearie me...kjohnw said:TSE is there any more polls out tonight?
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Feeling better about Brexit after eurovision.0
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Yep, bloody English incomers all voting Tory. Will need a Blair style victory to get these seats back.YBarddCwsc said:
I don’t doubt you are correct that there are some Independent Labour-inclined councillors. There are also some mavericks and some kippers who prefer the Independent label.justin124 said:
They are in the rural areas! Pembrokeshire - where I grew up - was Labour held from 1950 - 1970 and again from 1992 - 2005. Pembroke South & Carmarthen West did not go Tory until 2010. At some point I expect to see those seats Labour again. I remember canvassing for the Local Elections there in 1973 and was struck by the number of people who were genuinely puzzled at being asked to support a candidate bearing a party label. I regularly received the response - in strong Labour areas - of ' What does politics have to do with local government?' It was simply not part of the culture there in that people did not think in those terms. It has changed a bit now , but even today only circa 40% of County Councillors there have a party label.YBarddCwsc said:
Look at the map.justin124 said:
I grew up in Pembrokeshire and am aware of many non-Tory Independents. Quite a few were Labour.YBarddCwsc said:
I think that is correct. 80 per cent is a rough rule.Sean_F said:
Labour's Welsh vote was flattered by fielding more candidates than the other parties.
It's very difficult to attribute votes for Independents to other parties. My guess is that in places like Bridgend, Pembroke, Powys, Vale of Glamorgan , many Independents are Conservatives, whereas in the Valleys they're Labour supporters who've fallen out with the local party.
Labour did well in the cities -- they even gained seats in Swansea and Llanelli, and the losses in Cardiff were less than they should have been. Plaid Cymru did well in the rural areas.
I think this points to 6 Lab losses: Ynys Mon -> PC or Tory, and the 4 Welsh NE seats & Bridgend -> Tories.
I think Ceredigion is TCTC, and my bet for a surprise result would be the Rhondda where Chris Bryant has lost votes in every election.
https://twitter.com/siongwilym/status/860622162738257927/photo/1
Look at where the independents are. They are in the Tory seats.
Ynys Mon has zero Tory Councillors.
Yet, the Tories will either come first or a very close second next month.
Pembrokeshire is one of the areas of Wales in which the population is increasing. I think the demographics of the incomers are slowly making the seats less fertile for Labour.
In a very good year, Labour will take them. But, like the Gower, they are slowly moving away from Labour.0 -
Yo! Is you commentin' on his grammar?SquareRoot said:
is there? dearie me...kjohnw said:TSE is there any more polls out tonight?
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Figures from YouGov (forgive fact that I can't seem to find the easy-to-post tweet with the graph in it anywhere...)surbiton said:I did not say 35-44 will go Labour. I said 18-44 will go Labour. Clearly.
If we look at this:
18-24 Con 26, Lab 51
25-34 Con 28, Lab 51
35-44 Con 39, Lab 37
45-54 Con 44, Lab 29
Labour could even be leading 18-54. [ I have not done the weightings. So please take care ]
"Age is the new key predictor of voting intention in British politics"
* Labour-Conservative crossover occurs at age 34
* For every ten years older a person is, the likelihood that they would vote Conservative increases by 8 points
* For every ten years older a person is, the likelihood that they would vote Labour decreases by 6 points
Context: the median age of the entire UK population is just over 40 years. I don't have an exact value for the median age of the electorate (i.e. population with non-voting children and babies subtracted,) but it must be somewhere close to 50.
Labour can do as well as it likes amongst the can't-be-arsed-to-vote youth. If it's well adrift amongst the middle aged, and losing catastrophically amongst pensioners, it hardly matters. And a similar pattern is being seen by all of the pollsters; they might be out by a few percentage points here and there, but not by enough to call these findings seriously into question.
At this rate, it's quite possible that it will only manage to gather two votes for every three that the Tories get on June 8th.0 -
Just backed Croatia. Perfect Eurovision material.0
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Are the BBC still paying @BBCLauraK should be paid by the tory party.0
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Norway - voted against EU membership twice 0
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sorry it's been a long daySunil_Prasannan said:
Yo! Is you commentin' on his grammar?SquareRoot said:
is there? dearie me...kjohnw said:TSE is there any more polls out tonight?
are there any good English teachers on PB? 0 -
3hrs then?Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's the Sunil on Sunday, BigJohnbigjohnowls said:
When is Elbow due Sunil?Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, they didn't! It was 37.77726%!MarkSenior said:
Excluding NI they got more than 38% in 2015RobD said:
Except it isn't true. The PBV has the Tories on 38, which is higher than what they got in 2015. That's forgetting that comparing locals with a GE is a fools errand.surbiton said:
Thanks, Mark. You know these facts far better than me.MarkSenior said:
Not really , overall they fell a little short of their 2015 GE vote share . Did better in some areas such as NE but they had done very badly in 2013 hence the big gains .surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.
You know how I am voting this time ? You can use that for the next 5 years !!0 -
Yes, that sums it up pretty succinctly!valleyboy said:
Yep, bloody English incomers all voting Tory. Will need a Blair style victory to get these seats back.YBarddCwsc said:
I don’t doubt you are correct that there are some Independent Labour-inclined councillors. There are also some mavericks and some kippers who prefer the Independent label.justin124 said:
They are in the rural areas! Pembrokeshire - where I grew up - was Labour held from 1950 - 1970 and again from 1992 - 2005. Pembroke South & Carmarthen West did not go Tory until 2010. At some point I expect to see those seats Labour again. I remember canvassing for the Local Elections there in 1973 and was struck by the number of people who were genuinely puzzled at being asked to support a candidate bearing a party label. I regularly received the response - in strong Labour areas - of ' What does politics have to do with local government?' It was simply not part of the culture there in that people did not think in those terms. It has changed a bit now , but even today only circa 40% of County Councillors there have a party label.YBarddCwsc said:
Look at the map.justin124 said:
I grew up in Pembrokeshire and am aware of many non-Tory Independents. Quite a few were Labour.YBarddCwsc said:
I think that is correct. 80 per cent is a rough rule.Sean_F said:
Labour's Welsh vote was flattered by fielding more candidates than the other parties.
It's very difficult to attribute votes for Independents to other parties. My guess is that in places like Bridgend, Pembroke, Powys, Vale of Glamorgan , many Independents are Conservatives, whereas in the Valleys they're Labour supporters who've fallen out with the local party.
Labour did well in the cities -- they even gained seats in Swansea and Llanelli, and the losses in Cardiff were less than they should have been. Plaid Cymru did well in the rural areas.
I think this points to 6 Lab losses: Ynys Mon -> PC or Tory, and the 4 Welsh NE seats & Bridgend -> Tories.
I think Ceredigion is TCTC, and my bet for a surprise result would be the Rhondda where Chris Bryant has lost votes in every election.
https://twitter.com/siongwilym/status/860622162738257927/photo/1
Look at where the independents are. They are in the Tory seats.
Ynys Mon has zero Tory Councillors.
Yet, the Tories will either come first or a very close second next month.
Pembrokeshire is one of the areas of Wales in which the population is increasing. I think the demographics of the incomers are slowly making the seats less fertile for Labour.
In a very good year, Labour will take them. But, like the Gower, they are slowly moving away from Labour.0 -
Like a broken record.bigjohnowls said:Are the BBC still paying @BBCLauraK should be paid by the tory party.
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Is this the same lauraK who advised the labour party?bigjohnowls said:Are the BBC still paying @BBCLauraK should be paid by the tory party.
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Stress not, Jonathan!Jonathan said:Feeling better about Brexit after eurovision.
a) we havne't actually left yet
b) there are stacks of non-EU members participating each year!
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ICM was the only pollster in 1997 to understate the Labour lead.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I think the spread firms keeping a 3 seat margin on their SNP spreads is very tight when the maximum realistic variation is probably only 20 seats.0
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You mean ICM was the most accurate pollster at the 1997 general election.justin124 said:
ICM was the only pollster in 1997 to understate the Labour lead.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Get your short Straws, get you short Straws, going cheap...TheScreamingEagles said:
You mean ICM was the most accurate pollster at the 1997 general election.justin124 said:
ICM was the only pollster in 1997 to understate the Labour lead.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Lucie Jones!!0
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And in the 4 elections and 20 years since?justin124 said:
ICM was the only pollster in 1997 to understate the Labour lead.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Sorry, I missed the earlier comments. East Midlands is showing a c. 10-point swing in this poll. In Nick's defence he is not canvassing the whole region.brokenwheel said:
You are missing the point, if any of that is true than Nick's anecdotal evidence must be wide of the mark since Labour should be in collapse outside of the South.NeilVW said:
But they also have the Tories up 2 or 3 in the SE, and up 4 or 5 in the SW. The usual caveat about smallish subsamples applies, but this confirms the picture painted by other polls: little change since 2015 in the relative balance of support between Con and Lab in the south of England outside London, and maybe even a slight swing to Lab.brokenwheel said:
If we are to believe Comres then Labour is well down on 2015 in every region, including East Mids btw, except the South East (+6) and South West (+7).NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
I see there are still posters denying it all - Labour must be below 25%, etc. But without evidence to the contrry, it seems reasonable to believe the polls.
Of course, given the GB shares, that must imply massive swings to the Tories elsewhere - which we see in the ComRes poll: a 10-point swing in the NW and an 8-point swing in Yorkshire and the Humber, for instance.
It would also contradict the poll's own figures on Labour voter retention firming up if the Labour increase is purely down to it gaining heavily on 2015 in the South of England outside of London more than it is haemorrhaging votes everywhere else.
Looking at the two previous ComRes polls in April, there seems to be a sharp increase in Lab support in the SE over one month: 14% in mid-April, 14% a few days later, 25% in this latest one - possibly an outlier. SW more stable: 22%, 23%, 25%.
As for Lab retention of its 2015 vote, it hasn't shifted massively: 73%, 72%, 77%. The Tories: 92%, 92%, 90%.0 -
TSE: "I will never give up on EU!" 0
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0
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Polling disaster mk II....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Britain Elects @britainelects 42s42 seconds ago
More
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 49% (+3)
LAB: 31% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
UKIP: 3% (-2)0 -
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Tonight's YouGov/Sunday Times poll (changes since Wednesday)
Con 49 (+3) Lab 31 (+1) LD 9 (-2) UKIP 3 (-2)0 -
Tory see a big bump from labour supermarket trolley dash manifesto launch....Will the last ukipper please remember to turn the lights off at hq.0
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I think our Eurovision entry is good. There, I've just given it the kiss of death.0
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I think we have a new gold standardTheScreamingEagles said:Tonight's YouGov/Sunday Times poll (changes since Wednesday)
Con 49 (+3) Lab 31 (+1) LD 9 (-2) UKIP 3 (-2)
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Lib dems project target remainers seems to be going well..The thing is the stuff they have proposed is a damn sight more sensible that labours Venezuelan utopia nonsense.0
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UKIP may be polling lower than the SNP 0
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Nah, ICM are still the gold standard.RobD said:
I think we have a new gold standardTheScreamingEagles said:Tonight's YouGov/Sunday Times poll (changes since Wednesday)
Con 49 (+3) Lab 31 (+1) LD 9 (-2) UKIP 3 (-2)
Their last poll gave the Tories a 22% lead last time.0 -
I liked it too.numbertwelve said:I think our Eurovision entry is good. There, I've just given it the kiss of death.
However, I really do regret the fall of the Berlin Wall and collapse of the Soviet Union, it ultimately ruined the integrity of Eurovision voting0 -
TMICIPM (BAL)TheScreamingEagles said:Tonight's YouGov/Sunday Times poll (changes since Wednesday)
Con 49 (+3) Lab 31 (+1) LD 9 (-2) UKIP 3 (-2)0 -
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/863492184653352962
Won't be much grass left on Labour's lawn.0 -
Different message from the other polls so far tonight. They suggested a minor bounce for Labour but Tory vote holding firm. This one suggests the manifesto might have helped the Tories. Which is right?TheScreamingEagles said:Tonight's YouGov/Sunday Times poll (changes since Wednesday)
Con 49 (+3) Lab 31 (+1) LD 9 (-2) UKIP 3 (-2)0 -
If the LD vote collapses as the futility of voting for them grows increasingly obvious we could easily see the Tories over 50.0
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Ample evidence that everybody sane has now left Romania.....0
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It's ok, the army doesn't have that many tanks anymore.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/863492184653352962
Won't be much grass left on Labour's lawn.0 -
LibDems having a mare of an election.....bigjohnowls said:Britain Elects @britainelects 42s42 seconds ago
More
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 49% (+3)
LAB: 31% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
UKIP: 3% (-2)0 -
Labour "We'll give you loads of free stuff that other evil rich bastards pay for" policy working well so far.dr_spyn said:
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My hunch is both might be true...Labour have got a bump with 18-24 students, but they don't vote....And oldies remember the 70s who do vote.numbertwelve said:
Different message from the other polls so far tonight. They suggested a minor bounce for Labour but Tory vote holding firm. This one suggests the manifesto might have helped the Tories. Which is right?TheScreamingEagles said:Tonight's YouGov/Sunday Times poll (changes since Wednesday)
Con 49 (+3) Lab 31 (+1) LD 9 (-2) UKIP 3 (-2)
Difference could then be down to weighting of these groups propensity to vote.0 -
I wonder what the safe word is to stop the sinners being punished?MarqueeMark said:
LibDems having a mare of an election.....bigjohnowls said:Britain Elects @britainelects 42s42 seconds ago
More
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 49% (+3)
LAB: 31% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
UKIP: 3% (-2)0 -
Who would have thought it a few weeks ago?MarqueeMark said:
LibDems having a mare of an election.....bigjohnowls said:Britain Elects @britainelects 42s42 seconds ago
More
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 49% (+3)
LAB: 31% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
UKIP: 3% (-2)
I don't mind admitting I thought they'd be around 20% and challenging Labour for second back then.0 -
I honestly at first read that as Remainia and thought you were talking about the YouGov poll.MarqueeMark said:Ample evidence that everybody sane has now left Romania.....
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Ukraine, the hosts - yet another non-EU member!0
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Putting aside the sinners stuff, they haven't had any car crashes...Labour on the other hand are involved in daily multi car pile ups. Doesn't like like any justice.numbertwelve said:
Who would have thought it a few weeks ago?MarqueeMark said:
LibDems having a mare of an election.....bigjohnowls said:Britain Elects @britainelects 42s42 seconds ago
More
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 49% (+3)
LAB: 31% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
UKIP: 3% (-2)
I don't mind admitting I thought they'd be around 20% and challenging Labour for second back then.0 -
Me too, I thought Labour will lose a ton of votes directly to the Lib Dems, but unless the polls are wrong (and nobody knows that as yet) it's not happening.numbertwelve said:Who would have thought it a few weeks ago?
I don't mind admitting I thought they'd be around 20% and challenging Labour for second back then.
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Another unintended consequence of the Easten expansion of Europe?TheScreamingEagles said:
I liked it too.numbertwelve said:I think our Eurovision entry is good. There, I've just given it the kiss of death.
However, I really do regret the fall of the Berlin Wall and collapse of the Soviet Union, it ultimately ruined the integrity of Eurovision voting0 -
We had polls from ComRes, Opinium and YouGov four weeks ago:
ComRes 46, 25, 11, 9
Opinium 38, 29, 7, 14
YouGov 44, 23, 12, 10
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
Those average to 43, 26, 10, 11
and today's three polls from ComRes, Opinium and YouGov average to 48, 31, 9, 4.
Giving campaign changes of:
Con +5
Lab +5
LibD -1
UKIP -7
Its interesting that the NOTA parties are being squeezed in favour of the two main parties - is this perhaps a Corbyn effect ie people either love or fear him and so support the party which either supports or opposes him.
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Go Jezza!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!dr_spyn said:0 -
Kippers in freefall....MarqueeMark said:
LibDems having a mare of an election.....bigjohnowls said:Britain Elects @britainelects 42s42 seconds ago
More
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 49% (+3)
LAB: 31% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
UKIP: 3% (-2)0 -
"There are no Tory Leads in Baghdad!"brokenwheel said:
It's ok, the army doesn't have that many tanks anymore.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/863492184653352962
Won't be much grass left on Labour's lawn.0 -
But what is the Scotland subsample?TheScreamingEagles said:Tonight's YouGov/Sunday Times poll (changes since Wednesday)
Con 49 (+3) Lab 31 (+1) LD 9 (-2) UKIP 3 (-2)0 -
The NOTA parties all represented supposedly fringe opinion, yet the Tories and Labour have moved to occupy both.another_richard said:We had polls from ComRes, Opinium and YouGov four weeks ago:
ComRes 46, 25, 11, 9
Opinium 38, 29, 7, 14
YouGov 44, 23, 12, 10
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
Those average to 43, 26, 10, 11
and today's three polls from ComRes, Opinium and YouGov average to 48, 31, 9, 4.
Giving campaign changes of:
Con +5
Lab +5
LibD -1
UKIP -7
Its interesting that the NOTA parties are being squeezed in favour of the two main parties - is this perhaps a Corbyn effect ie people either love or fear him and so support the party which either supports or opposes him.
I am interested to see how this plays out in Scotland because the RedTory schtick that the SNP thrived with clearly shouldn't wash with Jihadi Jez.
If the realistic possibility of an independence referendum drops off the table, the SNP become very vulnerable in my opinion.0 -
Two party system !0
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It will all change when those Conservatives MPs get jailed for their 2015 campaign expenses.MarqueeMark said:
LibDems having a mare of an election.....bigjohnowls said:Britain Elects @britainelects 42s42 seconds ago
More
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 49% (+3)
LAB: 31% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
UKIP: 3% (-2)
That's if they don't all lose their seats first:
' The latest local by elections with an LD gain from UKIP on a whopping 26% swing top off what has been a good week for the LDs. Firstly there have been the Rallings/Thrasher and Lord Robert Hayward May elections’ projection suggesting that the yellows are in for a substantial number of gains on May 4th.
In addition to that we have had news of the private Crosby Textor constituency polling for the Tories suggesting that the party is set to win back a the bulk of the seats lost in the South West and Greater London that were lost to the Tories at GE2015.
That information is, of course, private, but PB sources have it that all but three or four of the seats could be back in LD hands at the next election and we know that it is Tory MPs who made gains last time who are most opposed to an early general election. '
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/07/it-is-organisation-more-than-brexit-that-is-driving-the-lib-dem-resurgence/
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Is Australia being put there by Europe to cut off our Gulf Stream warming?0
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Wish I could cash out my Bulgaria bet. Not impressed tonight.0
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Con majority of 136 on these YouGov figures (using the latest YouGov Scotland poll for Scottish shares).0
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And corbyn stays on...Worst of all worlds for the country.NeilVW said:Con majority of 136 on these YouGov figures (using the latest YouGov Scotland poll for Scottish shares).
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BREAKING: Labour proud to announce support of a "Robin Hood" tax that ensures bankers pay their share in fixing the mess of the 2008 crisis0
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