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Other GE2017 findings from the poll
Comments
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Seems about running right.
Mrs May's lacklustre campaign, especially about fox hunting is responsible for the Tory lead being slashed.
Last ComRes poll seemed like an outlier.0 -
Sleazy Tories on the slide !0
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It's up up up for Labour. Tories reached their ceiling (48-50), Labour reached their floor (26-30)0
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FPT
re: Wales - Yougov were close to accurate at the last election.
re: Lib Dems - where will they go? On Opinium's best leader choice they break 2:1 for May over Corbyn, so if they move.....
re: Labour's 32 - they are miles behind among 35+ and Opinium have substantially upweighted young blue collar workers because they presumably don't have many signed up to respond to political polls. It's a very dubious number because these voters are hard to reach. The Tories and Labour are close to level among young professionals.
The idea that young white van man is voting Corbyn is hysterical.
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Tory lead still basically the same it has been for 2 weeks now across the various polls and this is after Corbyn's super popular manifesto.
Still not buying Labour on > 30%, and Tories on nearly 50%.
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ComRes produce yet another Labour figure in the 30s.
Definitely a trend in the polls. Still not convinced regardless.0 -
The answer to the last question says it all: by 53% - 47%, the people think she is a liar.0
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The Comres poll looks a little more likely than Opinium with 2% more for the LDs and 2% less for Labour, on Comres the Tories would gain 49 Labour seats, 1 SNP, 3 LDs and 1 UKIP seat giving May a majority of 108 (even if they are doing a little worse than the last poll)0
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Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?0
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Don't forget ORB, the third poll of the day that has seen the Tory lead cut.0
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The 3rd question is just plain bonkers....who did they interview a room full of students?surbiton said:The answer to the last question says it all: by 53% - 47%, the people think she is a liar.
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FPT Wales, actual vote shares were Lab 35%, Con 21%, Independent 21%, Plaid 15%, Lib Dem 7%.0
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..just a liar with an 18 point lead.surbiton said:The answer to the last question says it all: by 53% - 47%, the people think she is a liar.
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Betting Post
Conservative leads continue to slide from the ridiculously enormous ones a couple of weeks ago.
Anyway, I posted this a few minutes ago on the old thread. The pre-race ramble includes literally two bets:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/spain-pre-race-2017.html0 -
How long has this been here?
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If we look at the polls, before that crazy spike of 25% leads (which most people queried), the leads were in the range we continue to see them now i.e 15-18%.Morris_Dancer said:Betting Post
Conservative leads continue to slide from the ridiculously enormous ones a couple of weeks ago.
Anyway, I posted this a few minutes ago on the old thread. The pre-race ramble includes literally two bets:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/spain-pre-race-2017.html
What appears to have changed is Labour and Tories at levels that don't seem to tally with the responses to best leader (i.e. Corbyn is panned) or realistic (Tory getting nearly 50% of the vote).0 -
Yes, they have. Under £80000, no tax increase. Under the Tories, everyone will pay more tax.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
That is why it was leaked!0 -
You'd expect a manifesto boost wouldn't you? The Labour launch this week will fall flat since its been spoiled, the Tory one will contain some sweeties, and the last three weeks will focus on personality. Not ideal for Mr Corbyn.0
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You've read the Tory manifesto?surbiton said:
Yes, they have. Under £80000, no tax increase. Under the Tories, everyone will pay more tax.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
That is why it was leaked!0 -
Since 6pm BST.RobD said:How long has this been here?
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Except IEA and IFS called total horseshit on that claim. Somewhere between £3-4k per household more required in tax.surbiton said:
Yes, they have. Under £80000, no tax increase. Under the Tories, everyone will pay more tax.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
That is why it was leaked!0 -
You're supposed to tell me these things, TSETheScreamingEagles said:
Since 6pm BST.RobD said:How long has this been here?
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Anyone got nicer graphical summaries than wiki?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#Graphical_summary
Leader favourability ratings do point towards approx 17/18% gap, so the 47-30 there would fit.0 -
For once I agree with TSE, in that the Tory campaign has up to now been dire, complacent and unfocused.
It May changed once the manifestoes are printed and published; then again it May not.0 -
I can see 3 bets suggested?Morris_Dancer said:Betting Post
Conservative leads continue to slide from the ridiculously enormous ones a couple of weeks ago.
Anyway, I posted this a few minutes ago on the old thread. The pre-race ramble includes literally two bets:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/spain-pre-race-2017.html
Or am I reading your ramble incorrectly?
Bottas, Verstappen and Ricciardo?0 -
Mr. Urquhart, it'll certainly be interesting to see how the results end up going.
As an aside, there's only tomorrow's race and Monaco (in a fortnight) before polling day.0 -
It is more a move from Blair landslide 1997 to Thatcher landslide 1987 for May than anything really significantTheScreamingEagles said:Don't forget ORB, the third poll of the day that has seen the Tory lead cut.
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Mr. M, I count Verstappen and Ricciardo as one bet because I put half a stake on each.0
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It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).0
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Strangely the public think otherwise when asked. But then look at the answers they give on other stuff...MikeK said:For once I agree with TSE, in that the Tory campaign has up to now been dire, complacent and unfocused.
It May changed once the manifestoes are printed and published; then again it May not.0 -
I think with Surbiton we have the IOS of this year's campaign.FrancisUrquhart said:
Except IEA and IFS called total horseshit on that claim. Somewhere between £3-4k per household more required in tax.surbiton said:
Yes, they have. Under £80000, no tax increase. Under the Tories, everyone will pay more tax.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
That is why it was leaked!0 -
Am assuming that we'll get another ICM for the Sun on Sunday at some point tonight? They've not given Labour a share in the 30s since Theresa May became Prime Minister.
*IF* that occurs then it could be more evidence that Labour is doing better, or that herding is underway, or possibly both. Take your pick...0 -
The morning thread should be going up at 5am BSTRobD said:
You're supposed to tell me these things, TSETheScreamingEagles said:
Since 6pm BST.RobD said:How long has this been here?
The afternoon thread at 2pm
The evening thread at 8pm
Of course these timings could change due to someone doing a guest thread, or events dear boy.0 -
If Labour thinks whacking the top 5% of earners will pay for all Corbyn's goodies this week they obviously have not read the small print, the Tories aim is to keep taxes down for everyone as far as the public finances allow which is a bit more realistic than Cameron and Osborne's pledge not to raise any tax regardlesssurbiton said:
Yes, they have. Under £80000, no tax increase. Under the Tories, everyone will pay more tax.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
That is why it was leaked!0 -
I've no idea whats in the Tory manifesto. The tories have basically announced nothing and are still approx 15 points ahead.surbiton said:
Yes, they have. Under £80000, no tax increase. Under the Tories, everyone will pay more tax.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
That is why it was leaked!
I cant see what labour have got left in the tank. The tories haven't even started their campaign0 -
Well Labour have emptied the sweet shop like an obese teenager...Razedabode said:
I've no idea whats in the Tory manifesto. The tories have basically announced nothing and are still approx 15 points ahead.surbiton said:
Yes, they have. Under £80000, no tax increase. Under the Tories, everyone will pay more tax.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
That is why it was leaked!
I cant see what labour have got left in the tank. The tories haven't even started their campaign0 -
Re polls: what GB percentage (as quoted in the polls) corresponds to a UK percentage of 30?0
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The smallish uptick on labour seems to be a triump for some but it still points to a large conservative majorityFrancisUrquhart said:
Except IEA and IFS called total horseshit on that claim. Somewhere between £3-4k per household more required in tax.surbiton said:
Yes, they have. Under £80000, no tax increase. Under the Tories, everyone will pay more tax.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
That is why it was leaked!
The conservative manifesto next week will see the party ramp up its campaign with serious onslaughts on labour's tax and spend policies and no doubt a widening of the atttack on Corbyn's lack of Brexit and defence policies.0 -
Justin Trudeau brings his 3 year old son to work
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-399074810 -
Based on the coloured bar chart at the top of this thread, the Baxterised numbers are as follows:
Con .......... 381
Labour ..... 188
LibDem ....... 5
UKIP ........... 0
Green ......... 0
Is now the time to SELL the Tories with Spreadex at 397 seats, or to BUY Labour with Sporting or Spreadex at 162 seats? As the chap on Big Brother is apt to say ..... You decide!
(I placed my spread bets yesterday)0 -
Probably be an improvement if his son took over...I would guess already more intellectually capable than his father.HYUFD said:Justin Trudeau brings his 3 year old son to work
christine.baker24@btinternet.com0 -
Let's see:
Labour have had virtually two weeks of hogging the news headlines. The Tories have said virtually nothing..
And Labour have gained three percentage points...
I expect the Tories to start ads/headlines etc 2-3 weeks before 8th June - so 18th May roughly..
Labour may gain some more by then - say another percentage point...
The question is: how good will the Tory response be? Is Mr Crosby worth the £ millions he is paid? Or will Labour reduce the lead to "only" 11%..?
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The ransomware attack affected more than just hospitals which ameliorated the impact of any attack on the government.FrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
But the Tories need a solid manifesto, they need more funding for schools and hospitals at least.0 -
Why didn't you listen to me when I advised buying the the Tories at 378?peter_from_putney said:Based on the coloured bar chart at the top of this thread, the Baxterised numbers are as follows:
Con .......... 381
Labour ..... 188
LibDem ....... 5
UKIP ........... 0
Green ......... 0
Is now the time to SELL the Tories with Spreadex at 397 seats, or to BUY Labour with Sporting or Spreadex at 162 seats? As the chap on Big Brother is apt to say ..... You decide!
(I placed my spread bets yesterday)0 -
Sure...but lets say 40+ NHS trusts were still down now the media would be absolutely monstering them, regardless that German trains or Nissan also got hit.HaroldO said:
The ransomware attack affected more than just hospitals which ameliorated the impact of any attack on the government.FrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
But the Tories need a solid manifesto, they need more funding for schools and hospitals at least.
Instead they have had a bit of a battering, but the media coverage will now pass / move on, and actually gives the Tories a chance to say look response was ok, could have been better, here is a plan and just imagine what Captain Calamity and Team Twat would have done.0 -
Just wait until we get the social conservative manifesto,then the fun starts on here.Razedabode said:
I've no idea whats in the Tory manifesto. The tories have basically announced nothing and are still approx 15 points ahead.surbiton said:
Yes, they have. Under £80000, no tax increase. Under the Tories, everyone will pay more tax.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
That is why it was leaked!
I cant see what labour have got left in the tank. The tories haven't even started their campaign0 -
Bit difficult to confine it to the NHS when it was a worldwide attack hitting lots of different countries and industriesFrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
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The Tories are doing better than Blair, in terms of vote share.HYUFD said:
It is more a move from Blair landslide 1997 to Thatcher landslide 1987 for May than anything really significantTheScreamingEagles said:Don't forget ORB, the third poll of the day that has seen the Tory lead cut.
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And therein is the problem. What's May doing in N. Ireland today? Nothing but farting around old problems that are in no ones interest except a group of N. Irish politico's that people would rather forget. In other words, wasting time.Razedabode said:
I've no idea whats in the Tory manifesto. The tories have basically announced nothing and are still approx 15 points ahead.surbiton said:
Yes, they have. Under £80000, no tax increase. Under the Tories, everyone will pay more tax.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
That is why it was leaked!
I cant see what labour have got left in the tank. The tories haven't even started their campaign0 -
IOS ?felix said:
I think with Surbiton we have the IOS of this year's campaign.FrancisUrquhart said:
Except IEA and IFS called total horseshit on that claim. Somewhere between £3-4k per household more required in tax.surbiton said:
Yes, they have. Under £80000, no tax increase. Under the Tories, everyone will pay more tax.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
That is why it was leaked!0 -
Sure, but we know how the media have a problem with minor facts like that. Given they are already pre-programmed to go NHS, never enough money, Tory cuts, yadda yadda yadda...if the response had been a disaster Mrs Solid and Stable May would have got a right old battering for days on end, despite it not really being down to her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult to confine it to the NHS when it was a worldwide attack hitting lots of different countries and industriesFrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
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#ComRes
Most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism
May 47%
Corbyn 14%
#Comres
Best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit
May 50%
Corbyn 15%
And Labour are at 32%. Right.0 -
I expect the Tories to win c.400, Labour c. 170.peter_from_putney said:Based on the coloured bar chart at the top of this thread, the Baxterised numbers are as follows:
Con .......... 381
Labour ..... 188
LibDem ....... 5
UKIP ........... 0
Green ......... 0
Is now the time to SELL the Tories with Spreadex at 397 seats, or to BUY Labour with Sporting or Spreadex at 162 seats? As the chap on Big Brother is apt to say ..... You decide!
(I placed my spread bets yesterday)0 -
No, but it encourages all their support to firm up, and save seats that might otherwise be lost, and so prevents the worst possible scenarios.Sean_F said:
Being behind by 14-18% is not something to celebrate.kle4 said:It's up up up for Labour. Tories reached their ceiling (48-50), Labour reached their floor (26-30)
Getting a bad result rather than a disastrous one is not a win for Labour, but it is better. At the moment the Tories are lazy, assuming that because Corbyn has poor ratings they need say nothing (we keep hearing they are holding back - until when? And why?), and while his allies have messed up Corbyn so far has not, meaning the 'let him tie his own rope' strategy has been ineffective, even if it has not led to a shift that would change the outcome from anything other than a Tory win.0 -
I forgive you for living in the past.felix said:
Right - are you predicting 100 or 200 for UKIP this time?MikeK said:For once I agree with TSE, in that the Tory campaign has up to now been dire, complacent and unfocused.
It May changed once the manifestoes are printed and published; then again it May not.
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The uptick has to be students...has to be. Labour aren't even ahead with public sector workers or the working class.Razedabode said:#ComRes
Most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism
May 47%
Corbyn 14%
#Comres
Best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit
May 50%
Corbyn 15%
And Labour are at 32%. Right.0 -
Is that not pilling up votes in areas they are already well aheadFrancisUrquhart said:
The uptick has to be students...has to be. Labour aren't even ahead with public sector workers or the working class.Razedabode said:#ComRes
Most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism
May 47%
Corbyn 14%
#Comres
Best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit
May 50%
Corbyn 15%
And Labour are at 32%. Right.0 -
Like me, he repeatedly predicted Ed M would win the 2015 election. Unlike me, he was a Labour partisan who mocked anyone who predicted otherwise, reporting that Labour's magnificent ground game was seeing them challenge in places they used to struggle in.Big_G_NorthWales said:
IOS ?felix said:
I think with Surbiton we have the IOS of this year's campaign.FrancisUrquhart said:
Except IEA and IFS called total horseshit on that claim. Somewhere between £3-4k per household more required in tax.surbiton said:
Yes, they have. Under £80000, no tax increase. Under the Tories, everyone will pay more tax.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
That is why it was leaked!0 -
One of several enormo-idiots. He and Justin are fighting hard for this year's slot.Big_G_NorthWales said:
IOS ?felix said:
I think with Surbiton we have the IOS of this year's campaign.FrancisUrquhart said:
Except IEA and IFS called total horseshit on that claim. Somewhere between £3-4k per household more required in tax.surbiton said:
Yes, they have. Under £80000, no tax increase. Under the Tories, everyone will pay more tax.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
That is why it was leaked!0 -
Well hard not to agree with thatfelix said:
One of several enormo-idiots. He and Justin are fighting hard for this year's slot.Big_G_NorthWales said:
IOS ?felix said:
I think with Surbiton we have the IOS of this year's campaign.FrancisUrquhart said:
Except IEA and IFS called total horseshit on that claim. Somewhere between £3-4k per household more required in tax.surbiton said:
Yes, they have. Under £80000, no tax increase. Under the Tories, everyone will pay more tax.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
That is why it was leaked!0 -
Now you've gone and told everyoneTheScreamingEagles said:
The morning thread should be going up at 5am BSTRobD said:
You're supposed to tell me these things, TSETheScreamingEagles said:
Since 6pm BST.RobD said:How long has this been here?
The afternoon thread at 2pm
The evening thread at 8pm
Of course these timings could change due to someone doing a guest thread, or events dear boy.
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How desperate can the Tories get.
https://twitter.com/andysearson/status/863073898048479234/photo/10 -
Thanks for that - so you are sensibly rational which I agree with but Surbiton is irrational which I agree withkle4 said:
Like me, he repeatedly predicted Ed M would win the 2015 election. Unlike me, he was a Labour partisan who mocked anyone who predicted otherwise, reporting that Labour's magnificent ground game was seeing them challenge in places they used to struggle in.Big_G_NorthWales said:
IOS ?felix said:
I think with Surbiton we have the IOS of this year's campaign.FrancisUrquhart said:
Except IEA and IFS called total horseshit on that claim. Somewhere between £3-4k per household more required in tax.surbiton said:
Yes, they have. Under £80000, no tax increase. Under the Tories, everyone will pay more tax.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
That is why it was leaked!0 -
It depends what you mean by disastrous. I expect this year to be 1997 in reverse.kle4 said:
No, but it encourages all their support to firm up, and save seats that might otherwise be lost, and so prevents the worst possible scenarios.Sean_F said:
Being behind by 14-18% is not something to celebrate.kle4 said:It's up up up for Labour. Tories reached their ceiling (48-50), Labour reached their floor (26-30)
Getting a bad result rather than a disastrous one is not a win for Labour, but it is better. At the moment the Tories are lazy, assuming that because Corbyn has poor ratings they need say nothing (we keep hearing they are holding back - until when? And why?), and while his allies have messed up Corbyn so far has not, meaning the 'let him tie his own rope' strategy has been ineffective, even if it has not led to a shift that would change the outcome from anything other than a Tory win.0 -
Yes but I think while May can match Thatcher's 1987 majority it will be difficult for her to match Blair's 1997 majority because of the size of the Labour majorities in its safest seatsSean_F said:
The Tories are doing better than Blair, in terms of vote share.HYUFD said:
It is more a move from Blair landslide 1997 to Thatcher landslide 1987 for May than anything really significantTheScreamingEagles said:Don't forget ORB, the third poll of the day that has seen the Tory lead cut.
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It's one possible scenario.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Is that not pilling up votes in areas they are already well aheadFrancisUrquhart said:
The uptick has to be students...has to be. Labour aren't even ahead with public sector workers or the working class.Razedabode said:#ComRes
Most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism
May 47%
Corbyn 14%
#Comres
Best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit
May 50%
Corbyn 15%
And Labour are at 32%. Right.
a - Polls are just wrong - there is some reason for believing this might be the case, given anecdata and Labour struggles in many areas in locals and mayoralties
b - Piling up votes in safe seats, losing elsewhere - Similar to a), but would mean polls could be right even as Labour's struggles are genuine and would be repeated at a GE
c - There is a surge for Labour and Corbyn for some reason (fear of a big Tory majority, nonvoters saying they will vote Labour, popular policies overcoming doubts over Corbyn, sclerotic LD vote).0 -
Trudeau Snr still has a big lead in Canadian pollsFrancisUrquhart said:
Probably be an improvement if his son took over...I would guess already more intellectually capable than his father.HYUFD said:Justin Trudeau brings his 3 year old son to work http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39907481
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_federal_election0 -
He went up in my opinion when he saw the light and ditched PR in favour of glorious FPTP.HYUFD said:
Trudeau Snr still has a big lead in Canadian pollsFrancisUrquhart said:
Probably be an improvement if his son took over...I would guess already more intellectually capable than his father.HYUFD said:Justin Trudeau brings his 3 year old son to work http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39907481
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_federal_election0 -
So what? If it ain't an Obama sized mass rally of thousands, it isn't newsworthy anyway, who cares if parties make an effort to get hundreds of party supporters to show up or a few dozen? It's a hassle for them, and it doesn't sway anybody any which way. "What's that Bob, 150 showed up for the Corbyn rally but only 100 for the May rally? Well, that changes everything".malcolmg said:How desperate can the Tories get.
hts://twitter.com/andysearson/status/863073898048479234/photo/1
I don't know why they bother, can they just not all have the leader pose in front of a green screen at the start of the campaign. Saves on show leather too.0 -
Clearly time for the Tories to panic - their polling is so consistently in the 46-48% range none is even commenting about it anymore.0
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At the moment I'm reading Harari's great book, Sapiens. It takes my mind from this election campaign.0
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Probably expecting HMRC to become less efficient.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
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National security including cyberdefence is down to her.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sure, but we know how the media have a problem with minor facts like that. Given they are already pre-programmed to go NHS, never enough money, Tory cuts, yadda yadda yadda...if the response had been a disaster Mrs Solid and Stable May would have got a right old battering for days on end, despite it not really being down to her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult to confine it to the NHS when it was a worldwide attack hitting lots of different countries and industriesFrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
Ross Anderson asks, "If large numbers of NHS organisations failed to act on a critical notice from Microsoft two months ago, then whose fault is that?"
Has any journalist had the intelligence to wonder whether private-sector health organisations, such as private hospitals, run the same software, and if so, whether they acted on the notice from Microsoft or not?
Or maybe the very existence of private healthcare and the difference between it and state healthcare isn't something the Tories (or Labour, it seems) wish to point up?0 -
Indeed - and has been remarked earlier (was it by yourself? I can't recall, sorry,) the shares of both the Lib Dems and Ukip are wearing back down to bedrock in these polls.MTimT said:Clearly time for the Tories to panic - their polling is so consistently in the 46-48% range none is even commenting about it anymore.
That will be a comfort to the Tories. If the polling does turn out to be accurate - and I have my reservations about all these Labour numbers on 30%+, given the data coming out of the key supplementary questions - then there's not much further for Labour to climb without taking votes directly from the Conservatives, which itself seems exceedingly implausible given the huge political gulf between the positions of the two major parties.
A final result of something like Con 46%, Lab 32% would imply a thrashing rather than an annihilation of Labour - something not entirely unlike the 1987 result, albeit with the added complication of the SNP vote (i.e. the Tories may not get quite so many seats, but Labour should do worse than the Tories.) It also implies that a significant Liberal Democrat resurgence won't happen.
And I still think they're over-counting Labour and under-counting the Liberal Democrats.0 -
If they commit an extra £350m to the NHS it'd be an act of political genius - especially as it'll happen over time anyway. Although it'd financial folly without root and branch restructuring at the same time.HaroldO said:
The ransomware attack affected more than just hospitals which ameliorated the impact of any attack on the government.FrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
But the Tories need a solid manifesto, they need more funding for schools and hospitals at least.
Also, I'd almost certainly choke to death on a glass of (decent) whisky if that happened, so win-win. You'll miss me when I'm gone.0 -
Rather goodmalcolmg said:How desperate can the Tories get.
https://twitter.com/andysearson/status/863073898048479234/photo/1
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Yes, because the missing numbers are DK or neither - most of whom will be left leaning voters who probably know the correct answer to those questions but don't want to accept they should be relevant to how they vote.Razedabode said:#ComRes
Most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism
May 47%
Corbyn 14%
#Comres
Best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit
May 50%
Corbyn 15%
And Labour are at 32%. Right.0 -
No-one thinks Labour will win. The hypothetical tax increase versus the one that will happen.Razedabode said:Interesting that more think they would pay less tax under Labour. Have they seen their manifesto?
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Off-topic: sounds like Hitman's been cancelled and Mass Effect is on ice.
Hitman looked like a very good game, but the weird way it was rolled out can't have helped sales.
Edited extra bit: anyway, I'm off.0 -
His poll lead ranges from 14 points to 0. I think some pollsters might be wrong...!RobD said:
He went up in my opinion when he saw the light and ditched PR in favour of glorious FPTP.HYUFD said:
Trudeau Snr still has a big lead in Canadian pollsFrancisUrquhart said:
Probably be an improvement if his son took over...I would guess already more intellectually capable than his father.HYUFD said:Justin Trudeau brings his 3 year old son to work http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39907481
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_federal_election0 -
You're mistaking your opinion for a fact. Corbyn wishes to negotiate with Daesh. Daesh have said they wish to negotiate with the west. Daesh are an obscenely barbaric murdering death cult, but the British government's first responsibility is supposed to be to this country.maaarsh said:
Yes, because the missing numbers are DK or neither - most of whom will be left leaning voters who probably know the correct answer to those questions but don't want to accept they should be relevant to how they vote.Razedabode said:#ComRes
Most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism
May 47%
Corbyn 14%
#Comres
Best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit
May 50%
Corbyn 15%
And Labour are at 32%. Right.0 -
So far went look to be seeing a moderate manifesto bounce for Labour (for a not-so-moderate manifesto). Tories still stubbornly clinging to the mid-to-high 40s. Without any substantial downwards movement for the Tories, Labour are going to struggle to break 200 seats as things stand.0
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Another contender should PB need a new strapline.Cyan said:
You're mistaking your opinion for a fact.maaarsh said:
Yes, because the missing numbers are DK or neither - most of whom will be left leaning voters who probably know the correct answer to those questions but don't want to accept they should be relevant to how they vote.Razedabode said:#ComRes
Most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism
May 47%
Corbyn 14%
#Comres
Best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit
May 50%
Corbyn 15%
And Labour are at 32%. Right.0 -
Well he has a majority and wants to keep itRobD said:
He went up in my opinion when he saw the light and ditched PR in favour of glorious FPTP.HYUFD said:
Trudeau Snr still has a big lead in Canadian pollsFrancisUrquhart said:
Probably be an improvement if his son took over...I would guess already more intellectually capable than his father.HYUFD said:Justin Trudeau brings his 3 year old son to work http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39907481
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_federal_election0 -
No attacks in Wales, apparently. The Welsh government did pay for the security upgrade.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult to confine it to the NHS when it was a worldwide attack hitting lots of different countries and industriesFrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
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No UKIP vote over 15% is my punt with isam. I am still happy with that. Nuttall is pants.felix said:
Right - are you predicting 100 or 200 for UKIP this time?MikeK said:For once I agree with TSE, in that the Tory campaign has up to now been dire, complacent and unfocused.
It May changed once the manifestoes are printed and published; then again it May not.0 -
Most polls give the Liberals over 40% and the Tories at 30% or under, 1 has them tied on 35%. The Tories supposed Donald Trump figure, businessman Kevin O'Leary, dropped out of their leadership race in April saying he lacked support in Quebec leaving Mitt Romney figure Maxime Bernier, former vice-president of the Standard Life of Canada Insurance company, MEI as the current Tory leadership poll leaderTheWhiteRabbit said:
His poll lead ranges from 14 points to 0. I think some pollsters might be wrong...!RobD said:
He went up in my opinion when he saw the light and ditched PR in favour of glorious FPTP.HYUFD said:
Trudeau Snr still has a big lead in Canadian pollsFrancisUrquhart said:
Probably be an improvement if his son took over...I would guess already more intellectually capable than his father.HYUFD said:Justin Trudeau brings his 3 year old son to work http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39907481
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_federal_election0 -
Shame on the Mass Effect front. Andromeda is not great but there's potential and they've shown before they can make big improvements been installments, as have other creators - The Witcher 2 is leagues beyond The Witcher for instance.Morris_Dancer said:Off-topic: sounds like Hitman's been cancelled and Mass Effect is on ice.
Hitman looked like a very good game, but the weird way it was rolled out can't have helped sales.0 -
I suspect the truth of your statement is akin to the truth of the viz article linked earlier. The security upgrade is of course free.SouthamObserver said:
No attacks in Wales, apparently. The Welsh government did pay for the security upgrade.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult to confine it to the NHS when it was a worldwide attack hitting lots of different countries and industriesFrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
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As an example, in 2015 Miliband scored 30.4% UK-wide and 31.2% GB-wide.Fysics_Teacher said:Re polls: what GB percentage (as quoted in the polls) corresponds to a UK percentage of 30?
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If it weren't free to obtain, it would be Microsoft who were holding organisations to ransom. But surely installation costs money in administration?Omnium said:
I suspect the truth of your statement is akin to the truth of the viz article linked earlier. The security upgrade is of course free.SouthamObserver said:
No attacks in Wales, apparently. The Welsh government did pay for the security upgrade.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult to confine it to the NHS when it was a worldwide attack hitting lots of different countries and industriesFrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
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Isn't Corbyn surviving Labour's worst possible scenario according to many soft-leftists/'centrists'?Sean_F said:
It depends what you mean by disastrous. I expect this year to be 1997 in reverse.kle4 said:
No, but it encourages all their support to firm up, and save seats that might otherwise be lost, and so prevents the worst possible scenarios.Sean_F said:
Being behind by 14-18% is not something to celebrate.kle4 said:It's up up up for Labour. Tories reached their ceiling (48-50), Labour reached their floor (26-30)
Getting a bad result rather than a disastrous one is not a win for Labour, but it is better. At the moment the Tories are lazy, assuming that because Corbyn has poor ratings they need say nothing (we keep hearing they are holding back - until when? And why?), and while his allies have messed up Corbyn so far has not, meaning the 'let him tie his own rope' strategy has been ineffective, even if it has not led to a shift that would change the outcome from anything other than a Tory win.0 -
They were on the bus with her , you don't think she would actually meet a real human from the public surely.GeoffM said:0 -
Squeaky bum time for the Tories. Labour's high visibility campaign on popular policies is remorselessly closing the polling gap.0
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This election is a choice between an enormous Conservative majority or merely a large one. I might have pointed out"strong and stable" sounds ever so slightly entitled in that environment and perhaps a little counterproductive, but the conclusion is so foregone that it doesn't make any difference.MTimT said:Clearly time for the Tories to panic - their polling is so consistently in the 46-48% range none is even commenting about it anymore.
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