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Funnily enough I was chatting to an acquaintance earlier who hadn't bothered to vote last time but would be voting Labour because of Corbyn, 'seems more honest than the rest'.Yorkcity said:
He was in York City centre last Wednesday afternoon .There was a big crowd to see him alongside the local MP for York Central.The local press gave him some balanced coverage.I still think it will be a 150 Maj for the blues.However he is motivating a certain section of society.He is good on the stump meeting the public.surbiton said:
I recall my Tory friend telling me about 6 months back that Trump would win. He was not backing Trump but he felt the people who do not vote will turn out.kle4 said:
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.Jason said:I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
He also told me that Jezza would do very well. Even I had to laugh. He said the same thing would happen: many who do not vote normally will turn out Corbyn. Let's see what happens .0 -
Sadly, most of my friends are Tories. Some pretend they do not do politics. That is a confirmation that they are also Tories.FrancisUrquhart said:
You have a Tory friend....I call that about as likely as Justin Kill Em bumping into Clive Lewis in a pub in Norwich on the day he was getting married in London.surbiton said:
I recall my Tory friend telling me about 6 months back that Trump would win. He was not backing Trump but he felt the people who do not vote will turn out.kle4 said:
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.Jason said:I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
He also told me that Jezza would do very well. Even I had to laugh. He said the same thing would happen: many who do not vote normally will turn out Corbyn. Let's see what happens .0 -
OK. So no one actually changed their mind on the Iraq war... they all just seemed to have forgotten they supported it originally?Yorkcity said:
Nothing to do with changing their opinion , that they forget they gave their support at the time.RobD said:
Hm, maybe that's because they have changed their opinion in it, like the former Labour voters mentioned by Jason?0 -
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
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Miserable gits! It is pure fun and there are some real classics tonight. The Ukranians have put on a very good show. I tip Bulgaria to win, but Fox jr is backing Portugal. I think bets for a top 10 finish should include Armenia and Romania, but also Moldova, Ukraine and Belarus as longer shots.HYUFD said:With Eurovision tonight British voters would vote to leave the Eurovision Song Contest by 56% to 44% according to Yougov
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/863005988743512064
In the absence of TSE, have a look at Sportsbooks betting summary:
https://betting.betfair.com/specials/eurovision-song-contest/eurovision-2017-odds-betfair-eurovision-betting-preview-saturday-13-may-2017-120517-140.html0 -
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
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Voting behaviour is different at locals and GEs?surbiton said:
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
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I do think the chance of a massive polling feck-up is high.
The pollster are operating in unusual circumstances, and their “corrections” and “adjustments” may not be right in such extreme conditions.0 -
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.0 -
You surely mean Tories cheating in elections yet getting away with it, nice to have buddies in high placesCarlottaVance said:
And an SNP MP helping some authority or other with their enquiries...Alistair said:
Seems like there is always a guy on the extreme right in SCon group photos these days.Fysics_Teacher said:
Shame the guy on the extreme right has his message the wrong way up.calum said:Graph in poster = 3 way marginal !
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/863335684664426497
I'm sure there is a metaphor in there somewhere...
https://mobile.twitter.com/Mike_Blackley/status/863144464763760643/photo/10 -
I am sure that the public, regardless of other attributes, consider Corbyn more honest that May, if not most politicians.valleyboy said:
Funnily enough I was chatting to an acquaintance earlier who hadn't bothered to vote last time but would be voting Labour because of Corbyn, 'seems more honest than the rest'.Yorkcity said:
He was in York City centre last Wednesday afternoon .There was a big crowd to see him alongside the local MP for York Central.The local press gave him some balanced coverage.I still think it will be a 150 Maj for the blues.However he is motivating a certain section of society.He is good on the stump meeting the public.surbiton said:
I recall my Tory friend telling me about 6 months back that Trump would win. He was not backing Trump but he felt the people who do not vote will turn out.kle4 said:
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.Jason said:I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
He also told me that Jezza would do very well. Even I had to laugh. He said the same thing would happen: many who do not vote normally will turn out Corbyn. Let's see what happens .0 -
Hello Big_G , Hope your holiday is going well.Big_G_NorthWales said:Viewing from afar and 8 hours behind I would suggest the following.
Conservatives about right
Labour too high
Lib Dems too low
UKIP bit high
Next week the serious manifesto for government will be released and the narrative will move from labour's suicide note and the conservative proposition for government..
I think keeping TM relatively low profile and allowing labour to show their hand has been tactically astute and expect to see a full on attack on labour from monday.
Over here in Canada all the talk, and I mean all the talk, is about Trump and the trade war developing between the US and Canada. Lots of anger and dismay widely seen. Rocky (forgive the pun) times ahead by the looks of it0 -
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.justin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/five-key-charts-show-people-will-vote-general-election-according/
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Because that's a two-week old poll.surbiton said:
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.justin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/five-key-charts-show-people-will-vote-general-election-according/
And you appear to have changed your stance on reading the Telegraph.
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He's more likely to say things people don't like, therefore more direct at least. Usually.surbiton said:
I am sure that the public, regardless of other attributes, consider Corbyn more honest that May, if not most politicians.valleyboy said:
Funnily enough I was chatting to an acquaintance earlier who hadn't bothered to vote last time but would be voting Labour because of Corbyn, 'seems more honest than the rest'.Yorkcity said:
He was in York City centre last Wednesday afternoon .There was a big crowd to see him alongside the local MP for York Central.The local press gave him some balanced coverage.I still think it will be a 150 Maj for the blues.However he is motivating a certain section of society.He is good on the stump meeting the public.surbiton said:
I recall my Tory friend telling me about 6 months back that Trump would win. He was not backing Trump but he felt the people who do not vote will turn out.kle4 said:
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.Jason said:I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
He also told me that Jezza would do very well. Even I had to laugh. He said the same thing would happen: many who do not vote normally will turn out Corbyn. Let's see what happens .0 -
Do you think Andrew Neil should quiz May on having shown herself to be a compulsive liar? Plenty of quotes available to throw at her.Jason said:
You know my views on the polling, but certainly Labour have had a huge amount of publicity over the last week, and I don't suppose it can be all bad. Next week is the crucial one really, and it will cement the outcome of the election. The TV interviews will either confirm or deny what most people think anyway, but I do think it's absolutely crucial that Corbyn is not let off the hook because of 'politeness' or some such sentiment.kle4 said:
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.Jason said:I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
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is thta the one from last Monday?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
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That old chestnut, given she had left the company by the time the issue arose , it would make it hard for her to be involved, even for a Tory fib that is a whopperCarlottaVance said:
And an SNP MP helping some authority or other with their enquiries...Alistair said:
Seems like there is always a guy on the extreme right in SCon group photos these days.Fysics_Teacher said:
Shame the guy on the extreme right has his message the wrong way up.calum said:Graph in poster = 3 way marginal !
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/863335684664426497
I'm sure there is a metaphor in there somewhere...
https://mobile.twitter.com/Mike_Blackley/status/863144464763760643/photo/10 -
Though the Tories would still gain almost 40 Labour seats even on that UK wide poll (+2 LD seats and 1 UKIP), the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labourjustin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.0 -
I do not read the telegraph. I clicked on a url.RobD said:
Because that's a two-week old poll.surbiton said:
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.justin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/five-key-charts-show-people-will-vote-general-election-according/
And you appear to have changed your stance on reading the Telegraph.0 -
She used to be a Tory, malc. These things are to be expected.malcolmg said:
That old chestnut, given she had left the company by the time the issue arose , it would make it hard for her to be involved, even for a Tory fib that is a whopperCarlottaVance said:
And an SNP MP helping some authority or other with their enquiries...Alistair said:
Seems like there is always a guy on the extreme right in SCon group photos these days.Fysics_Teacher said:
Shame the guy on the extreme right has his message the wrong way up.calum said:Graph in poster = 3 way marginal !
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/863335684664426497
I'm sure there is a metaphor in there somewhere...
https://mobile.twitter.com/Mike_Blackley/status/863144464763760643/photo/10 -
Splitting hairssurbiton said:
I do not read the telegraph. I clicked on a url.RobD said:
Because that's a two-week old poll.surbiton said:
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.justin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/five-key-charts-show-people-will-vote-general-election-according/
And you appear to have changed your stance on reading the Telegraph.
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Yes, I can see her saying there will not be an election and then changing her mind and having one will be as damaging as Corybn's various comments over the years.justin124 said:
Do you think Andrew Neil should quiz May on having shown herself to be a compulsive liar? Plenty of quotes available to throw at her.Jason said:
You know my views on the polling, but certainly Labour have had a huge amount of publicity over the last week, and I don't suppose it can be all bad. Next week is the crucial one really, and it will cement the outcome of the election. The TV interviews will either confirm or deny what most people think anyway, but I do think it's absolutely crucial that Corbyn is not let off the hook because of 'politeness' or some such sentiment.kle4 said:
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.Jason said:I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
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Unless Ferrari were seriously sandbagging, the Mercedes race pace looks greatly superior... and I don't think I'm being massively pessimistic. This really is supposed to be a track which plays to Ferrari's strengths. If Mercedes are comfortable winners here then they have a lot of catching up to do. As I said, before Friday I was expecting Ferrari to dominate this GP.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, I still think you're being too pessimistic about the Prancing Horse. Practically no difference on pace in qualifying, and if Mercedes still has the turned-up-wick mode then that means Ferrari has the edge on race pace. Plus they've been sharper on strategy.
Hard to pass, and the start will be critical.
Got a few potential betting ideas (too many, to be honest). Got to go afk for a bit, so I imagine it'll be up around half five to six.
I'd actually like to be wrong, as I was hoping for a season long scrap between Vettel and Hamilton.
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Only 20 seats ? No way.HYUFD said:
Though the Tories would still gain about 20 Labour seats even on that poll, the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labourjustin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.0 -
I think so too. Other than giving a rough idea of which way the wind is blowing, I think the polls are useless. Additionally I have not seen anything convincing to explain why the polling companies got it so wrong in 2015, or why they all at the end coalesced around the, wrong, predicted result or for that matter why one of them suppressed a poll that was out of line with what everyone else was saying (but actually turned out to be accurate).YBarddCwsc said:
I do think the chance of a massive polling feck-up is high.
The pollster are operating in unusual circumstances, and their “corrections” and “adjustments” may not be right in such extreme conditions.
It maybe heresy on this site to say so, but I cannot help thinking that polling companies make the numbers up as they go along in order to promote their favoured narrative. All covered with the most impeccable mumbo-jumbo as to the reasons why they have adjusted and corrected the data from their samples of course.0 -
Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)
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31 Labour seats would go Tory on a 3.7% swing.HYUFD said:
Though the Tories would still gain almost 40 Labour seats even on that UK wide poll (+2 LD seats and 1 UKIP), the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labourjustin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
This is not the smallest Tory lead of the campaign so far - we have had leads of 11% and 13% a couple of weeks back.0 -
It's a trend. Polling disaster or everyone is wrong.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
No you are right nearer 40 seats, I was looking at majority not swingsurbiton said:
Only 20 seats ? No way.HYUFD said:
Though the Tories would still gain about 20 Labour seats even on that poll, the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labourjustin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.0 -
That's how it starts - pretty sure its how I started on PB.surbiton said:
I do not read the telegraph. I clicked on a url.RobD said:
Because that's a two-week old poll.surbiton said:
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.justin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/five-key-charts-show-people-will-vote-general-election-according/
And you appear to have changed your stance on reading the Telegraph.0 -
He should question her about statements which she then acted in opposition to, perhaps.justin124 said:
Do you think Andrew Neil should quiz May on having shown herself to be a compulsive liar? Plenty of quotes available to throw at her.Jason said:
You know my views on the polling, but certainly Labour have had a huge amount of publicity over the last week, and I don't suppose it can be all bad. Next week is the crucial one really, and it will cement the outcome of the election. The TV interviews will either confirm or deny what most people think anyway, but I do think it's absolutely crucial that Corbyn is not let off the hook because of 'politeness' or some such sentiment.kle4 said:
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.Jason said:I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
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Polling Disaster Klakon....At this rate Tories will exceed 50%, Labour 35%...kle4 said:
It's a trend. Polling disaster or everyone is wrong.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
Another one with Labour above their 2015 performance, and the Lib Dems having gone precisely nowhere. Very strange.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting.surbiton said:
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_20170 -
Agreed to honest at times.A bit like the film The Invention of lying, where everyone tells the truth.surbiton said:
I am sure that the public, regardless of other attributes, consider Corbyn more honest that May, if not most politicians.valleyboy said:
Funnily enough I was chatting to an acquaintance earlier who hadn't bothered to vote last time but would be voting Labour because of Corbyn, 'seems more honest than the rest'.Yorkcity said:
He was in York City centre last Wednesday afternoon .There was a big crowd to see him alongside the local MP for York Central.The local press gave him some balanced coverage.I still think it will be a 150 Maj for the blues.However he is motivating a certain section of society.He is good on the stump meeting the public.surbiton said:
I recall my Tory friend telling me about 6 months back that Trump would win. He was not backing Trump but he felt the people who do not vote will turn out.kle4 said:
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.Jason said:I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
He also told me that Jezza would do very well. Even I had to laugh. He said the same thing would happen: many who do not vote normally will turn out Corbyn. Let's see what happens .0 -
Baxter'd (including their Scotland prediction)marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)
Con 370, Lab 203, LD 6
Majority 900 -
112 Tory majority.kle4 said:
It's a trend. Polling disaster or everyone is wrong.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
I have doubts about the Tory score too, in fairness.surbiton said:
112 Tory majority.kle4 said:
It's a trend. Polling disaster or everyone is wrong.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
I think most people have.kle4 said:
I have doubts about the Tory score too, in fairness.surbiton said:
112 Tory majority.kle4 said:
It's a trend. Polling disaster or everyone is wrong.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
The last two Opiniums both had Lab at 30 - so like ORB higher end of spectrum - but even so strong evidence Lab is continuing to edge up.
Big question now is can Lab hit or beat 30 with ICM - last five ICM Lab scores were 27, 28, 28, 28, 27.0 -
Bonkers. I shall retire to Bedlam if Labour are 30+Black_Rook said:
Another one with Labour above their 2015 performance, and the Lib Dems having gone precisely nowhere. Very strange.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
Yup. And yet the same poll shows more people disapprove of Corbyn than they do of Nuttall. It doesn't make sense.Black_Rook said:
Another one with Labour above their 2015 performance, and the Lib Dems having gone precisely nowhere. Very strange.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)
0 -
Interesting, it appears the majority changes by 20 seats whether or not you use a Scotland prediction (where only six seats change hands from SNP -> Tories/LD)surbiton said:
112 Tory majority.kle4 said:
It's a trend. Polling disaster or everyone is wrong.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
Based on the Britain Elects figures it is a swing of 4.5% so that would be 41 Tory gains from Labour and 32% is the highest Labour rating of the campaignjustin124 said:
31 Labour seats would go Tory on a 3.7% swing.HYUFD said:
Though the Tories would still gain almost 40 Labour seats even on that UK wide poll (+2 LD seats and 1 UKIP), the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labourjustin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
This is not the smallest Tory lead of the campaign so far - we have had leads of 11% and 13% a couple of weeks back.0 -
Not really. If I were in a Lab seat or Lab/Tory marginal then I would vote Lab. If I were in a Tory or LD seat I would vote LD. It is important that May has a proper opposition to call her to account. Ideally a hung parliament.Black_Rook said:
Another one with Labour above their 2015 performance, and the Lib Dems having gone precisely nowhere. Very strange.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
Labour were on 34 with Opinium's final poll in 2015. The Tories were on 35.Black_Rook said:
Another one with Labour above their 2015 performance, and the Lib Dems having gone precisely nowhere. Very strange.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
RobD said:
She used to be a Tory, malc. These things are to be expected.malcolmg said:
That old chestnut, given she had left the company by the time the issue arose , it would make it hard for her to be involved, even for a Tory fib that is a whopperCarlottaVance said:
And an SNP MP helping some authority or other with their enquiries...Alistair said:
Seems like there is always a guy on the extreme right in SCon group photos these days.Fysics_Teacher said:
Shame the guy on the extreme right has his message the wrong way up.calum said:Graph in poster = 3 way marginal !
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/863335684664426497
I'm sure there is a metaphor in there somewhere...
https://mobile.twitter.com/Mike_Blackley/status/863144464763760643/photo/1
0 -
Even from that poll, only 3 weeks back, if you add the Tory and UKIP share, it comes to 36%. How on earth, the Tories will get 40% beats me. Where were these people on the 4th of May ?nunu said:
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting.surbiton said:
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_20170 -
I am sure he will ask her about her support for the Iraq war and Libya and continued support for Saudi Arabia.Also will she support Trump over Syria whatever he decides.kle4 said:
He should question her about statements which she then acted in opposition to, perhaps.justin124 said:
Do you think Andrew Neil should quiz May on having shown herself to be a compulsive liar? Plenty of quotes available to throw at her.Jason said:
You know my views on the polling, but certainly Labour have had a huge amount of publicity over the last week, and I don't suppose it can be all bad. Next week is the crucial one really, and it will cement the outcome of the election. The TV interviews will either confirm or deny what most people think anyway, but I do think it's absolutely crucial that Corbyn is not let off the hook because of 'politeness' or some such sentiment.kle4 said:
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.Jason said:I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
0 -
Voting for independents, which seems to be a big thing in Wales.surbiton said:
Even from that poll, only 3 weeks back, if you add the Tory and UKIP share, it comes to 36%. How on earth, the Tories will get 40% beats me. Where were these people on the 4th of May ?nunu said:
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting.surbiton said:
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_20170 -
Betfair have a Tory majority of 75-99 at 9.2. Fair value methinks.HYUFD said:
Based on the Britain Elects figures it is a swing of 4.5% so that would be 41 Tory gains from Labour and 32% is the highest Labour rating of the campaignjustin124 said:
31 Labour seats would go Tory on a 3.7% swing.HYUFD said:
Though the Tories would still gain almost 40 Labour seats even on that UK wide poll (+2 LD seats and 1 UKIP), the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labourjustin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
This is not the smallest Tory lead of the campaign so far - we have had leads of 11% and 13% a couple of weeks back.0 -
Immigration: Who was the Home Secretary from 2010 to 2016 ? How many NON-EU immigrants came in ? What was the manifesto commitment ?Yorkcity said:
I am sure he will ask her about her support for the Iraq war and Libya and continued support for Saudi Arabia.Also will she support Trump over Syria whatever he decides.kle4 said:
He should question her about statements which she then acted in opposition to, perhaps.justin124 said:
Do you think Andrew Neil should quiz May on having shown herself to be a compulsive liar? Plenty of quotes available to throw at her.Jason said:
You know my views on the polling, but certainly Labour have had a huge amount of publicity over the last week, and I don't suppose it can be all bad. Next week is the crucial one really, and it will cement the outcome of the election. The TV interviews will either confirm or deny what most people think anyway, but I do think it's absolutely crucial that Corbyn is not let off the hook because of 'politeness' or some such sentiment.kle4 said:
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.Jason said:I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
0 -
You doing missionary work Rob, you will find it hard to convert Surbiton to the dark evil nasty side.RobD said:
Splitting hairssurbiton said:
I do not read the telegraph. I clicked on a url.RobD said:
Because that's a two-week old poll.surbiton said:
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.justin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/five-key-charts-show-people-will-vote-general-election-according/
And you appear to have changed your stance on reading the Telegraph.0 -
The 35% and 13% Welsh figures come from the 2012 local elections when Ed Miliband won the national voteshare, they are not the 2017 figures where the Tories gained 80 seats in Wales and Labour lost 107 (unlike Scotland I don't believe Welsh voteshare has yet been calculated)nunu said:
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting.surbiton said:
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_20170 -
Definitely Bulgaria for the win for me too. And I'm also on Moldova but I think there 2 or 3 bonkers acts that will split the fruitcake vote.foxinsoxuk said:
Miserable gits! It is pure fun and there are some real classics tonight. The Ukranians have put on a very good show. I tip Bulgaria to win, but Fox jr is backing Portugal. I think bets for a top 10 finish should include Armenia and Romania, but also Moldova, Ukraine and Belarus as longer shots.HYUFD said:With Eurovision tonight British voters would vote to leave the Eurovision Song Contest by 56% to 44% according to Yougov
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/863005988743512064
In the absence of TSE, have a look at Sportsbooks betting summary:
https://betting.betfair.com/specials/eurovision-song-contest/eurovision-2017-odds-betfair-eurovision-betting-preview-saturday-13-may-2017-120517-140.html0 -
I even find it hard to read the Telegraphmalcolmg said:
You doing missionary work Rob, you will find it hard to convert Surbiton to the dark evil nasty side.RobD said:
Splitting hairssurbiton said:
I do not read the telegraph. I clicked on a url.RobD said:
Because that's a two-week old poll.surbiton said:
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.justin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/five-key-charts-show-people-will-vote-general-election-according/
And you appear to have changed your stance on reading the Telegraph. 0 -
Catching up with bits and pieces of election news, I noticed that Greens not standing in Wells. Issued a statement saying essentially vote for Tessa.0
-
Correct, Doctor ! I will do my duty in Kingston and Surbiton.foxinsoxuk said:
Not really. If I were in a Lab seat or Lab/Tory marginal then I would vote Lab. If I were in a Tory or LD seat I would vote LD. It is important that May has a proper opposition to call her to account. Ideally a hung parliament.Black_Rook said:
Another one with Labour above their 2015 performance, and the Lib Dems having gone precisely nowhere. Very strange.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
Whoa .... In Welsh Local elections, the Independents are usually Tories. To get the Tory vote, a simple thing to do is to take 80 per cent of the Independent vote and put it in the Tory column.nunu said:
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting.surbiton said:
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
This gives Labour 472 councillors, and the Tories on 184 + 0.8 * 322 = 441 councillors.
I.e. Labour slightly ahead in the Locals, which is what the polling predicted for the Locals (from memory, Labour 28 per cent, Tories 26 per cent).0 -
On UK figures alone the Tories would probably have a majority of 80-90 on that Opinium poll, however if they pick up 10 or so from the SNP that would take them to the 100 majority mark so they need an above average swing in Scotland which Scottish polls suggest is not impossiblefoxinsoxuk said:
Betfair have a Tory majority of 75-99 at 9.2. Fair value methinks.HYUFD said:
Based on the Britain Elects figures it is a swing of 4.5% so that would be 41 Tory gains from Labour and 32% is the highest Labour rating of the campaignjustin124 said:
31 Labour seats would go Tory on a 3.7% swing.HYUFD said:
Though the Tories would still gain almost 40 Labour seats even on that UK wide poll (+2 LD seats and 1 UKIP), the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labourjustin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
This is not the smallest Tory lead of the campaign so far - we have had leads of 11% and 13% a couple of weeks back.0 -
The Tories are just shy of 55% among all voters aged 35+0
-
Where on earth is Jeremy Corbyn getting all these voters from?marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
Are the words too long for you or is it that the typeface is too small?RobD said:
I even find it hard to read the Telegraphmalcolmg said:
You doing missionary work Rob, you will find it hard to convert Surbiton to the dark evil nasty side.RobD said:
Splitting hairssurbiton said:
I do not read the telegraph. I clicked on a url.RobD said:
Because that's a two-week old poll.surbiton said:
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.justin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/five-key-charts-show-people-will-vote-general-election-according/
And you appear to have changed your stance on reading the Telegraph.
Sorry, but I couldn't resist such an open goal. 0 -
Shaking the magic money tree...GIN1138 said:
Where on earth is Jeremy Corbyn getting all these voters from?marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May) 0 -
Given the poll in the Telegraph poll showing him even behind with public sector workers and working class, it has to be students.GIN1138 said:
Where on earth is Jeremy Corbyn getting all these voters from?marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
A bit of bothHurstLlama said:
Are the words too long for you or is it that the typeface is too small?RobD said:
I even find it hard to read the Telegraphmalcolmg said:
You doing missionary work Rob, you will find it hard to convert Surbiton to the dark evil nasty side.RobD said:
Splitting hairssurbiton said:
I do not read the telegraph. I clicked on a url.RobD said:
Because that's a two-week old poll.surbiton said:
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.justin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/five-key-charts-show-people-will-vote-general-election-according/
And you appear to have changed your stance on reading the Telegraph. Sorry, but I couldn't resist such an open goal. 0 -
Mr. Gin, he's got 150% of the vote sewn up in Tower Hamlets
0 -
The long term unemployed who do not vote normally. But will the pollsters get hold of them ?FrancisUrquhart said:
Given the poll in the Telegraph poll showing him even behind with public sector workers and working class, it has to be students.GIN1138 said:
Where on earth is Jeremy Corbyn getting all these voters from?marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
Even that is down on the usual 165%....Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Gin, he's got 150% of the vote sewn up in Tower Hamlets
0 -
In that case, shouldn't the pollsters also have asked about Independents if they are so numerous ?YBarddCwsc said:
Whoa .... In Welsh Local elections, the Independents are usually Tories. To get the Tory vote, a simple thing to do is to take 80 per cent of the Independent vote and put it in the Tory column.nunu said:
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting.surbiton said:
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
This gives Labour 472 councillors, and the Tories on 184 + 0.8 * 322 = 441 councillors.
I.e. Labour slightly ahead in the Locals, which is what the polling predicted for the Locals (from memory, Labour 28 per cent, Tories 26 per cent).0 -
They did, and they polled 12%. Not sure what the actual figure in the election was, but it was 25% in 2012.surbiton said:
In that case, shouldn't the pollsters also have asked about Independents if they are so numerous ?YBarddCwsc said:
Whoa .... In Welsh Local elections, the Independents are usually Tories. To get the Tory vote, a simple thing to do is to take 80 per cent of the Independent vote and put it in the Tory column.nunu said:
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting.surbiton said:
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
This gives Labour 472 councillors, and the Tories on 184 + 0.8 * 322 = 441 councillors.
I.e. Labour slightly ahead in the Locals, which is what the polling predicted for the Locals (from memory, Labour 28 per cent, Tories 26 per cent).0 -
That is because it is horse manure Rob.RobD said:
Interesting, it appears the majority changes by 20 seats whether or not you use a Scotland prediction (where only six seats change hands from SNP -> Tories/LD)surbiton said:
112 Tory majority.kle4 said:
It's a trend. Polling disaster or everyone is wrong.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
Afternoon/evening GinGIN1138 said:
Where on earth is Jeremy Corbyn getting all these voters from?marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
Suspect it is using an earlier model that doesn't account for UKIP not standing in certain seats.malcolmg said:
That is because it is horse manure Rob.RobD said:
Interesting, it appears the majority changes by 20 seats whether or not you use a Scotland prediction (where only six seats change hands from SNP -> Tories/LD)surbiton said:
112 Tory majority.kle4 said:
It's a trend. Polling disaster or everyone is wrong.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
A few years ago I remember watching an interview on the BBC with a few people standing on some steps outside somewhere that was doubtless appropriate for the story.Alistair said:
Seems like there is always a guy on the extreme right in SCon group photos these days.Fysics_Teacher said:
Shame the guy on the extreme right has his message the wrong way up.calum said:Graph in poster = 3 way marginal !
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/863335684664426497
I'm sure there is a metaphor in there somewhere...
One of them was captioned "Far Right Conservative". When they switched back to the studio a newsreader (amused and not apologetic at all) apologised saying that the caption was "a positioning direction for the camera crew and shown in error"0 -
The problem is the LD score... if they're really only on 8%, then their votes have to go somewhere. Are we seeing the return of the two-party system?FrancisUrquhart said:
I think most people have.kle4 said:
I have doubts about the Tory score too, in fairness.surbiton said:
112 Tory majority.kle4 said:
It's a trend. Polling disaster or everyone is wrong.marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)0 -
F1: more or less done the blog, just prevaricating over a bet. The agony of choice!0
-
Meanwhile back in reality, I am splitting my sides that anybody can be so deluded.HYUFD said:
On UK figures alone the Tories would probably have a majority of 80-90 on that Opinium poll, however if they pick up 10 or so from the SNP that would take them to the 100 majority mark so they need an above average swing in Scotland which Scottish polls suggest is not impossiblefoxinsoxuk said:
Betfair have a Tory majority of 75-99 at 9.2. Fair value methinks.HYUFD said:
Based on the Britain Elects figures it is a swing of 4.5% so that would be 41 Tory gains from Labour and 32% is the highest Labour rating of the campaignjustin124 said:
31 Labour seats would go Tory on a 3.7% swing.HYUFD said:
Though the Tories would still gain almost 40 Labour seats even on that UK wide poll (+2 LD seats and 1 UKIP), the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labourjustin124 said:
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.HYUFD said:
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too lowJason said:Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
This is not the smallest Tory lead of the campaign so far - we have had leads of 11% and 13% a couple of weeks back.0 -
And I suppose the other Tory on the right hand side was labelled 'alt right conservative'?GeoffM said:
A few years ago I remember watching an interview on the BBC with a few people standing on some steps outside somewhere that was doubtless appropriate for the story.Alistair said:
Seems like there is always a guy on the extreme right in SCon group photos these days.Fysics_Teacher said:
Shame the guy on the extreme right has his message the wrong way up.calum said:Graph in poster = 3 way marginal !
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/863335684664426497
I'm sure there is a metaphor in there somewhere...
One of them was captioned "Far Right Conservative". When they switched back to the studio a newsreader (amused and not apologetic at all) apologised saying that the caption was "a positioning direction for the camera crew and shown in error"
I'll get my coat.0 -
Hi Malc - yes - great to be with family in a fab location by Grouse Mountain. Managed to trace the home of one of my wife's aunts who emigrated to Vancouver circa 1920. Lots of Campbells and McDonalds (my wife being a Campbell)malcolmg said:
Hello Big_G , Hope your holiday is going well.Big_G_NorthWales said:Viewing from afar and 8 hours behind I would suggest the following.
Conservatives about right
Labour too high
Lib Dems too low
UKIP bit high
Next week the serious manifesto for government will be released and the narrative will move from labour's suicide note and the conservative proposition for government..
I think keeping TM relatively low profile and allowing labour to show their hand has been tactically astute and expect to see a full on attack on labour from monday.
Over here in Canada all the talk, and I mean all the talk, is about Trump and the trade war developing between the US and Canada. Lots of anger and dismay widely seen. Rocky (forgive the pun) times ahead by the looks of it
Pb seems to have the same arguments but looking at it from a distance I do not think much has changed from when the election was called though my comments on the fisher folk seem to be confirmed.
All the best0 -
This must be one of the silliest threads. The Labour uptick is down to the weakness of the rest. The Tory figures are also going up. There is precious little more to say.0
-
If you're trying to understand what happened in the Welsh Council Elections, you could do no better than read this:RobD said:
Voting for independents, which seems to be a big thing in Wales.surbiton said:
Even from that poll, only 3 weeks back, if you add the Tory and UKIP share, it comes to 36%. How on earth, the Tories will get 40% beats me. Where were these people on the 4th of May ?nunu said:
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting.surbiton said:
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/05/12/the-2017-local-elections-in-wales/
Summary:
Prediction of Welsh Barometer Poll:
Labour: 28%
Conservatives: 26%
Plaid Cymru: 19%
Liberal Democrats: 7%
UKIP: 8%
Others/Independents: 12%
Actual result:
Labour: 35.05%
Plaid Cymru: 15.00%
Conservative: 20.65%
Lib-Dems: 6.72%
UKIP: 0.84%
Green: 0.74%
Ind/Others: 20.99%
(TBC)0 -
(continued)
Possible reasons for error:
"Why should the poll have been so far out from the actual voting figures? There are several potential reasons. First, the poll was conducted around two weeks before the election, and many voters may have changed their minds in the intervening period. Polling companies normally like to conduct their ‘final call poll’, which is how their accuracy compared to the results is usually judged, as close as possible to an election – and certainly not two weeks beforehand. Second, local elections are particularly hard to poll in many places, including much of Wales, because of the strong tradition of local independent candidates and groups. Third, and perhaps most importantly, in many seats there were not candidates from all of the parties. Labour stood in the clear majority of Welsh seats, but the Conservatives only in about half, Plaid Cymru in somewhat fewer than half, the Lib-Dems in below one-quarter of all contests, and UKIP and the Greens in a much lower proportion even that that. Many voters may have intended to vote for a party in the local elections but been unable to do so for want of a local candidate.
"Nonetheless, while there are legitimate reasons to excuse at least some of the inaccuracy in our poll, we should also be open to the possibility that it reflected some genuine error in measuring party support. If so, those errors were in the direction of under-stating Labour support, and over-stating support for the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and UKIP. This should be born in mind over the next few weeks. Overall, our poll for the local elections certainly gave some indication of the direction in which the political wind was blowing, but not too accurate a reading of the strength of that wind."
In other words, the polling *might* be defective, but it looks like the main reason for the discrepancy is that an awful lot of voters were deprived of their ideal candidates. It is no surprise that Labour outperformed if it was the only party that managed to contest most of the seats on offer; moreover, IIRC, independents are especially common in Wales and often soak up a lot of the right-leaning vote.
At a General Election, Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru will all be contesting all forty Welsh seats. So the local election polling being so wide of the mark doesn't necessarily imply that the general election polling will also get the vote share terribly wrong.0 -
@Black_Rook - interesting, thanks for posting. Will we see a similar thing with UKIP?0
-
You realize you are reading 2012 figures, right?nunu said:
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting.surbiton said:
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
0 -
Evening Malc!malcolmg said:
Afternoon/evening GinGIN1138 said:
Where on earth is Jeremy Corbyn getting all these voters from?marke09 said:Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May) 0 -
Cheers G, Tories do seem to be aligning themselves with some dubious characters and groups in Scotland. It will not end well.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Hi Malc - yes - great to be with family in a fab location by Grouse Mountain. Managed to trace the home of one of my wife's aunts who emigrated to Vancouver circa 1920. Lots of Campbells and McDonalds (my wife being a Campbell)malcolmg said:
Hello Big_G , Hope your holiday is going well.Big_G_NorthWales said:Viewing from afar and 8 hours behind I would suggest the following.
Conservatives about right
Labour too high
Lib Dems too low
UKIP bit high
Next week the serious manifesto for government will be released and the narrative will move from labour's suicide note and the conservative proposition for government..
I think keeping TM relatively low profile and allowing labour to show their hand has been tactically astute and expect to see a full on attack on labour from monday.
Over here in Canada all the talk, and I mean all the talk, is about Trump and the trade war developing between the US and Canada. Lots of anger and dismay widely seen. Rocky (forgive the pun) times ahead by the looks of it
Pb seems to have the same arguments but looking at it from a distance I do not think much has changed from when the election was called though my comments on the fisher folk seem to be confirmed.
All the best
Enjoy the rest of your holiday, if me I would not be wanting to come back.0 -
OK, so despite the 12% accounted for the Independents, the Tories were expected to get 26% and, in fact, they got 13%.RobD said:
They did, and they polled 12%. Not sure what the actual figure in the election was, but it was 25% in 2012.surbiton said:
In that case, shouldn't the pollsters also have asked about Independents if they are so numerous ?YBarddCwsc said:
Whoa .... In Welsh Local elections, the Independents are usually Tories. To get the Tory vote, a simple thing to do is to take 80 per cent of the Independent vote and put it in the Tory column.nunu said:
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting.surbiton said:
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
This gives Labour 472 councillors, and the Tories on 184 + 0.8 * 322 = 441 councillors.
I.e. Labour slightly ahead in the Locals, which is what the polling predicted for the Locals (from memory, Labour 28 per cent, Tories 26 per cent).
I can see where the landslide is coming from !0 -
Afternoon everyone, isn't odd that a 15 point lead in the point lead for the blue team seems normal but we most of us think the absolute numbers are wrong.
FWIW I personally think the Labour is overstated as is the Tories. Lib Dems appear to be the new shy Tories.0 -
Those are the 2012 results.surbiton said:
OK, so despite the 12% accounted for the Independents, the Tories were expected to get 26% and, in fact, they got 13%.RobD said:
They did, and they polled 12%. Not sure what the actual figure in the election was, but it was 25% in 2012.surbiton said:
In that case, shouldn't the pollsters also have asked about Independents if they are so numerous ?YBarddCwsc said:
Whoa .... In Welsh Local elections, the Independents are usually Tories. To get the Tory vote, a simple thing to do is to take 80 per cent of the Independent vote and put it in the Tory column.nunu said:
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting.surbiton said:
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
This gives Labour 472 councillors, and the Tories on 184 + 0.8 * 322 = 441 councillors.
I.e. Labour slightly ahead in the Locals, which is what the polling predicted for the Locals (from memory, Labour 28 per cent, Tories 26 per cent).
I can see where the landslide is coming from !0 -
You don't need to move - it looks as though someone is already bringing it.RobD said:
And I suppose the other Tory on the right hand side was labelled 'alt right conservative'?GeoffM said:
A few years ago I remember watching an interview on the BBC with a few people standing on some steps outside somewhere that was doubtless appropriate for the story.Alistair said:
Seems like there is always a guy on the extreme right in SCon group photos these days.Fysics_Teacher said:
Shame the guy on the extreme right has his message the wrong way up.calum said:Graph in poster = 3 way marginal !
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/863335684664426497
I'm sure there is a metaphor in there somewhere...
One of them was captioned "Far Right Conservative". When they switched back to the studio a newsreader (amused and not apologetic at all) apologised saying that the caption was "a positioning direction for the camera crew and shown in error"
I'll get my coat.
And the taxi will only be a moment, apparently. 0 -
Why are the Telegraph so shy to tell us the headline figures ? Or have they ?
OK, they have. 46-32-7-80 -
Your reading skills are clearly lacking today.surbiton said:Why are the Telegraph so shy to tell us the headline figures ? Or have they ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/
The overall ORB poll put the Tories on 46 per cent of the vote, Labour on 32, the Liberal Democrats on 8 and the UK Independence Party on 7.0 -
And was posted in full here....obviously it is the rigged bias zionist media hiding the numbers again.RobD said:
Your reading skills are clearly lacking today.surbiton said:Why are the Telegraph so shy to tell us the headline figures ? Or have they ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/
The overall ORB poll put the Tories on 46 per cent of the vote, Labour on 32, the Liberal Democrats on 8 and the UK Independence Party on 7.0 -
We often talk about this "shyness" but what is the motivating factor?CommanderShepard said:Afternoon everyone, isn't odd that a 15 point lead in the point lead for the blue team seems normal but we most of us think the absolute numbers are wrong.
FWIW I personally think the Labour is overstated as is the Tories. Lib Dems appear to be the new shy Tories.
For Tories it used to be the fear of violence or verbal abuse from the booted Thug Left.
If a LibDem is "shy" then that can only be for fear of being laughed at. Very different.0 -
I got it from wiki. Greens = 0% ?RobD said:
Your reading skills are clearly lacking today.surbiton said:Why are the Telegraph so shy to tell us the headline figures ? Or have they ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/
The overall ORB poll put the Tories on 46 per cent of the vote, Labour on 32, the Liberal Democrats on 8 and the UK Independence Party on 7.0 -
So you were asking if the telegraph were too shy to report the headline figures without actually reading the article? OK.surbiton said:
I got it from wiki. Greens = 0% ?RobD said:
Your reading skills are clearly lacking today.surbiton said:Why are the Telegraph so shy to tell us the headline figures ? Or have they ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/
The overall ORB poll put the Tories on 46 per cent of the vote, Labour on 32, the Liberal Democrats on 8 and the UK Independence Party on 7.
As for Greens, ORB tend to include them with Others.0 -
Fear of the Brexit mob ?GeoffM said:
We often talk about this "shyness" but what is the motivating factor?CommanderShepard said:Afternoon everyone, isn't odd that a 15 point lead in the point lead for the blue team seems normal but we most of us think the absolute numbers are wrong.
FWIW I personally think the Labour is overstated as is the Tories. Lib Dems appear to be the new shy Tories.
For Tories it used to be the fear of violence or verbal abuse from the booted Thug Left.
If a LibDem is "shy" then that can only be for fear of being laughed at. Very different.0 -
Betting Post
F1: after a lot of contemplation, the pre-race article, complete with two tips, is now up.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/spain-pre-race-2017.html0
