BTW, have we commented on the fact that today's YouGov has Labour statistically tied with the Tories among the working-age 18-65 population?
Tories only ahead because of a MAMMOTH lead with the workshy scrounger pensioners.
That is remarkable Con lead Labour 65-15 among the over 65s Over 65s far more energised by Brexit than other age groups Over 65s highest propensity to vote. Still suspect it is an iffy sample
It also has Conservatives getting nearly double the Labour vote in Scotland.
It's not that out-of-step with other polls.
I was making a semi-serious point. When people talk about Labour "only doing well with young voters", they seem to be assuming that they only do well with people in their early 20s. But that's not the case. Most polls also have them roughly level or sometimes a little ahead with the 25-49 age bracket, and they don't do too disgracefully even with the 50-64 age bracket. It's only in the 65+ age bracket that they enter the slaughterhouse - and obviously pensioners are growing in number and are much likely to vote, but they're not the ONLY ones who make up the whole electorate.
Not most polls I've seen in the past 5 months. Many polls have put Labour behind with every age group apart from 18-24.
Yes, quite a lot have put them behind, but they're almost always in spitting distance with the 25-49 bracket even if they're not ahead.
You are Justin Short Straws and I claim my five pounds...
I doubt fox hunting will make it to the Tory manifesto. The last thing they need to do is rack up the leafy shire vote whilst Don Valley is in play.
Don Valley isn't in play though. Even Shadsy who I think has been overly negative on Labour hold prospects in the North has Ms Flint at 6/1 on.
6/1 for her still means it's in play, surely, just not even close to being a given for TP.
Do these odds factor in the fact Tissue Price was a 'multiple screen namer', right here on PB? Hard to see how he could ride out such a dark past in the white heat of a general election campaign.
No he wasn't. Can you stop with this ridiculous meme,
He hasn't used multiple screen names like you.
He changed his user name after a break from PB, during which PB had changed commenting systems, and he chose something betting related.
I doubt fox hunting will make it to the Tory manifesto. The last thing they need to do is rack up the leafy shire vote whilst Don Valley is in play.
Don Valley isn't in play though. Even Shadsy who I think has been overly negative on Labour hold prospects in the North has Ms Flint at 6/1 on.
6/1 for her still means it's in play, surely, just not even close to being a given for TP.
Do these odds factor in the fact Tissue Price was a 'multiple screen namer', right here on PB? Hard to see how he could ride out such a dark past in the white heat of a general election campaign.
No he wasn't. Can you stop with this ridiculous meme,
He hasn't used multiple screen names like you.
He changed his user name after a break from PB, during which PB had changed commenting systems, and he chose something betting related.
BTW, have we commented on the fact that today's YouGov has Labour statistically tied with the Tories among the working-age 18-65 population?
Tories only ahead because of a MAMMOTH lead with the workshy scrounger pensioners.
That is remarkable Con lead Labour 65-15 among the over 65s Over 65s far more energised by Brexit than other age groups Over 65s highest propensity to vote. Still suspect it is an iffy sample
It also has Conservatives getting nearly double the Labour vote in Scotland.
It's not that out-of-step with other polls.
I was making a semi-serious point. When people talk about Labour "only doing well with young voters", they seem to be assuming that they only do well with people in their early 20s. But that's not the case. Most polls also have them roughly level or sometimes a little ahead with the 25-49 age bracket, and they don't do too disgracefully even with the 50-64 age bracket. It's only in the 65+ age bracket that they enter the slaughterhouse - and obviously pensioners are growing in number and are much likely to vote, but they're not the ONLY ones who make up the whole electorate.
Not most polls I've seen in the past 5 months. Many polls have put Labour behind with every age group apart from 18-24.
Yes, quite a lot have put them behind, but they're almost always in spitting distance with the 25-49 bracket even if they're not ahead.
You are Justin Short Straws and I claim my five pounds...
I doubt fox hunting will make it to the Tory manifesto. The last thing they need to do is rack up the leafy shire vote whilst Don Valley is in play.
Don Valley isn't in play though. Even Shadsy who I think has been overly negative on Labour hold prospects in the North has Ms Flint at 6/1 on.
6/1 for her still means it's in play, surely, just not even close to being a given for TP.
Do these odds factor in the fact Tissue Price was a 'multiple screen namer', right here on PB? Hard to see how he could ride out such a dark past in the white heat of a general election campaign.
No one does it quite like you do.
I was actually deeply shit at it. Tissue Price was far more expert. Sadly for him, the mask slipped at the worst possible time. I dread to think of the reaction in Don Valley.
Trump may be crackers, but he's not especially right wing, particularly in an American context. Trump's no Pat Buchanan.
Corbyn is properly far left, McDonnell too, and if anything the manifesto is toned down from where they would truly stand on many issues. Defence and taxation being two obvious examples.
I would take some of the percentages that Electoral calculus have for chances of winning with a big pinch of salt. I have just looked at the seat I live in and the numbers for the individual wards are often quite crazy and likely to be wrong wide margins. The actual overall result for the seat looked somewhat plausible but how they got there did not.
AIUI the ward stats are an add-on, just a bit of fun based on EC's projected national vote shares, the constituency shares that flow from them, and local election results (not 2017's though).
The constituency vote shares are based on GB polls (or Scotland polls) plus a 1% or so swing Lab->Con because of previous polling errors in that direction.
Finally, EC have been adding details of parties not standing and adjusting parties' predicted constituency shares to zero (and re-allocating to other parties based on polling evidence) in those cases. They have some catching up to do here though.
I doubt fox hunting will make it to the Tory manifesto. The last thing they need to do is rack up the leafy shire vote whilst Don Valley is in play.
Don Valley isn't in play though. Even Shadsy who I think has been overly negative on Labour hold prospects in the North has Ms Flint at 6/1 on.
6/1 for her still means it's in play, surely, just not even close to being a given for TP.
Do these odds factor in the fact Tissue Price was a 'multiple screen namer', right here on PB? Hard to see how he could ride out such a dark past in the white heat of a general election campaign.
No he wasn't. Can you stop with this ridiculous meme,
He hasn't used multiple screen names like you.
He changed his user name after a break from PB, during which PB had changed commenting systems, and he chose something betting related.
Who cares when he changed his name? I was being sarcastic, I thought that much was obvious.
That's on account of them applying this uniform national swing to the seat which implies the UKIP vote in Donny goes to the Tories. Whereas last week Labour picked up a council seat.
Just a few miles down the road from where I live is Stevenage. Labour majority council. Returned a Tory MP at last election with a 5,000 majority, may well get into five figures now Ukip have withdrawn. We must always remember that local and general elections are clean different things, and one can only read across from the former to the latter to a limited extent.
That said, Don Valley is still an exceptionally challenging target for the Conservatives.
Understood, and Stevenage constituency is larger than Stevenage borough, adding in leafy villages. But electoral calculus has the Tories winning every single ward in Stevenage. Do you think they will win Bedwell for instance ?
Seems like some of the pollsters have slightly lost interest in general election polling compared to 2015. Not sure it's justified because most of the polls were within the margin of error two years ago.
That's on account of them applying this uniform national swing to the seat which implies the UKIP vote in Donny goes to the Tories. Whereas last week Labour picked up a council seat.
Just a few miles down the road from where I live is Stevenage. Labour majority council. Returned a Tory MP at last election with a 5,000 majority, may well get into five figures now Ukip have withdrawn. We must always remember that local and general elections are clean different things, and one can only read across from the former to the latter to a limited extent.
That said, Don Valley is still an exceptionally challenging target for the Conservatives.
Understood, and Stevenage constituency is larger than Stevenage borough, adding in leafy villages. But electoral calculus has the Tories winning every single ward in Stevenage. Do you think they will win Bedwell for instance ?
Click on "Show workings" for how these ward projections in Stevenage are calculated, but they're not intended to be more than an interesting diversion I think. They don't feed into the constituency projections, rather they flow out of them.
The point is the Tories were ahead in the constituency by 10 points in 2015, EC estimate a 7.5-point swing in the national polls since then, therefore they predict Con holds it by about 25. And they haven't yet applied their adjustment to re-allocate the remaining votes for the non-existent UKIP candidate.
Highly interesting from Bootle (Clearly Con Gain).
It appears UKIP are NOT standing here, despite this being Paul Nuttal's local seat and him being the candidate last time around.
Choice of only 5. Socialist Labour are standing (who?). And even more interesting, not one of the candidates has an address in the constituency.
Who was it who said they'd met the Conservative Party candidate (TP?). Are they intending to do any campaigning here? Is anyone going to do any campaigning here?
Seems like some of the pollsters have slightly lost interest in general election polling compared to 2015. Not sure it's justified because most of the polls were within the margin of error two years ago.
Almost all of them understated Con by 3 and overstated Lab by 3 (in rough terms) though. Couldn't be just random sampling error among all 11 polls, and not even the pollsters seriously tried that defence I don't think.
31% of people are f##king deluded....what part of the Venezuelan Utopian manifesto is well thought through. In most cases they don't even lay out any sort of plan.
If I posted a comment saying that 52% of people are f##king deluded to vote for brexit, it would quite rightly be criticised on here for being elitist/patronising, so why is it ok to make that kind of comment about Labour supporters? Golden rule of politics, don't insult the voters.
Question Time audience - I can answer since I was actually there and enjoyed it greatly even though I didn't get to make a contribution.
I don't know what came across on TV but as live the audience were diverse and active with a narrow majority pro-independence and a bigger majority for Europe and the SNP. Hayman and Cherry were best received, Thornby got a much better hearing than usual, Ben Wallace went down badly although he was nothing like as bad as the rather sinister country set Tory from Money Week.
Most interesting chat afterwards was the number of people who were pro the Labour manifesto but are going to vote SNP to oppose the Tories.
IEA say Corbyn's manifesto would cost each household in Britain a £2,400 a year for ten years.
Pretty sure they didn't account for the fact you can spend corporation tax receipts ten times.
Free market think tanks don't count. Ignore
La la la you're not listening, right?
Not listening and reacting to criticism is the greatest error in politics. Criticism literally suggests how you might gain the votes of those who currently disagree with you...
Most interesting chat afterwards was the number of people who were pro the Labour manifesto but are going to vote SNP to oppose the Tories.
I was interested by the comment from someone in the audience about wanting to vote for the Labour manifesto but being reluctant because it would be interpreted as a pro-union vote. Anecdotally it seems to support the theory that independence has now outgrown the SNP and will become increasingly a cross-party position.
IEA say Corbyn's manifesto would cost each household in Britain a £2,400 a year for ten years.
Pretty sure they didn't account for the fact you can spend corporation tax receipts ten times.
Free market think tanks don't count. Ignore
La la la you're not listening, right?
Not listening and reacting to criticism is the greatest error in politics. Criticism literally suggests how you might gain the votes of those who currently disagree with you...
Most interesting chat afterwards was the number of people who were pro the Labour manifesto but are going to vote SNP to oppose the Tories.
I was interested by the comment from someone in the audience about wanting to vote for the Labour manifesto but being reluctant because it would be interpreted as a pro-union vote. Anecdotally it seems to support the theory that independence has now outgrown the SNP and will become increasingly a cross-party position.
The Tories won most votes in Edinburgh in the local elections and Thornberry reaffirmed Labour's commitment to the Union, QT audiences always lean left
Most interesting chat afterwards was the number of people who were pro the Labour manifesto but are going to vote SNP to oppose the Tories.
I was interested by the comment from someone in the audience about wanting to vote for the Labour manifesto but being reluctant because it would be interpreted as a pro-union vote. Anecdotally it seems to support the theory that independence has now outgrown the SNP and will become increasingly a cross-party position.
Good thing for that audience member is that this vote isn't about independence....
Peter WalkerVerified account @peterwalker99 7h7 hours ago
Final progressive alliance tally with nominations closed: Greens stood aside: 22 seats Lib Dems: 1 seat Labour: 0 seats
Would be interesting to see list of seats.
From memory there were at least two seats where Greens didn't stand which helped Lab to win very close contests in 2015 - think two were Chester and Wirral West.
Impossible situation: I want Labour to do badly at the election (due to Corbyn and McDonnell) but I don't particularly want the Tories to win a 150 seat majority.
And I'm still convinced that all these results around 30% for Labour are evidence of another polling fail. But we still have to wait another four weeks to find out, of course...
Personally I am finding it hard to think they will do as well as Ed Miliband...but then I also really don't believe 1 in 2 voters will vote for the Tories. Knock 3-4% off both and I might be more convinced.
Worth remembering that almost all polls in the period leading up to the election in 2015 were reporting Labour shares of 31-35%
Almost all polls now for Labour are in the range 27-31%
Labour is polling about 4% less now than it was last cycle. How much of that is due to the polls being fixed and how much due to a change in popularity? Its hard to tell but there is a change.
But if the polls were using the same methodology as used in 2015 we would be seeing polling figures of 29% - 33% circa!
Impossible situation: I want Labour to do badly at the election (due to Corbyn and McDonnell) but I don't particularly want the Tories to win a 150 seat majority.
Question Time audience - I can answer since I was actually there and enjoyed it greatly even though I didn't get to make a contribution.
I don't know what came across on TV but as live the audience were diverse and active with a narrow majority pro-independence and a bigger majority for Europe and the SNP. Hayman and Cherry were best received, Thornby got a much better hearing than usual, Ben Wallace went down badly although he was nothing like as bad as the rather sinister country set Tory from Money Week.
Most interesting chat afterwards was the number of people who were pro the Labour manifesto but are going to vote SNP to oppose the Tories.
Good to see you were there but it was clearly a left leaning and SNP backing audience with a significant minority of Unionists, the audience was clearly more left and pro independence than Edinburgh as a whole though, let alone Scotland, Edinburgh voted 61% No and the Tories won most votes in Edinburgh in the local elections with 27.7% to 27.1% for the SNP https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_of_Edinburgh_Council_election,_2017
Still waiting for number of UKIP candidates, but if they are only standing in say approx 50% of seats it will lead to a big media narrative of:
UKIP not even bothering to field candidates in many seats = Not taking GE seriously = No chance of success = No point voting for them
ie It will depress UKIP vote share even in seats where they are standing.
A lot of their choices don't make sense either. For instance dropping out in safe Tory seat where they were second in 2015, but standing in Lab/Con marginals.
Most interesting chat afterwards was the number of people who were pro the Labour manifesto but are going to vote SNP to oppose the Tories.
I was interested by the comment from someone in the audience about wanting to vote for the Labour manifesto but being reluctant because it would be interpreted as a pro-union vote. Anecdotally it seems to support the theory that independence has now outgrown the SNP and will become increasingly a cross-party position.
That may be true, but the cause of independence is best served by having just one party articulate it, whilst the unionist opposition is split. It enables headline-grabbing events such as the sensational gains in the 2015 General Election, and strength in Scottish Assembly Elections enabling the SNP to form the government and set the agenda.
If, say, SLab converted to the cause of independence it would split the vote. Sure, they could form coalitions, but that's not the same as single-party dominance in terms of providing momentum towards the desired outcome.
Kipper standing in Leicester West. Good for Liz Kendall.
And no Green. Also good for Liz.
Mel Gould is standing for Greens, and there is an independent too.
According to the helpfully provided SOPN link, that Green lives at an address on Letchworth Road. I'm originally from there! Letchworth, that is, not Letchworth Road. Or Leicester. Would've thought Letchworth was far too little to merit having a road named after it in somewhere as far away as Leicester. You learn a new thing every day.
The nearest road to where I was born was called Lebanon Road, and that was in Wandsworth SW18. Road naming conventions are not always the same.
Ilford Road is a Metro station in Newcastle
When I did the Metro back in March, I made sure to alight there!
Used to be my commuting stop! No roads nearby give any hints to its provenance.
Peter WalkerVerified account @peterwalker99 7h7 hours ago
Final progressive alliance tally with nominations closed: Greens stood aside: 22 seats Lib Dems: 1 seat Labour: 0 seats
Would be interesting to see list of seats.
From memory there were at least two seats where Greens didn't stand which helped Lab to win very close contests in 2015 - think two were Chester and Wirral West.
It would appear the Green Party are standing in Wirral West. Makes Margaret Greenwood's chances very remote therefore (to be fair, if she doesn't lose, then we are looking at the Conservatives only just going forward - if at all).
Edit - And UKIP aren't standing, so she should be toast.
Apologies if it's already been discussed earlier, but does anyone know how many UKIP and Green candidates will be standing at the general election? Also how many LDs aren't standing?
Don't know about the others but I understand LD are standing in 630, which I think is everywhere except, NI, the speaker, and the green Carolina Lucas.
Thanks. Just found out that UKIP are contesting 42% of seats in the South West. I can't see them contesting more than 50% overall on that basis, although I'll stand corrected if wrong.
I saw on the council website that UKIP are not standing in 5 of 6 Cornish seats - Truro being the exception.
Yesterday I heard UKIP were standing in all but three seats in the North East (so about 26 out of 29), and one UKIP official mentioned them standing nearly everywhere in London - if all the candidates managed to file on time. That would surprise me as UKIP are weak in most of London, but then again there is a large population to draw on.
Apologies if it's already been discussed earlier, but does anyone know how many UKIP and Green candidates will be standing at the general election? Also how many LDs aren't standing?
Don't know about the others but I understand LD are standing in 630, which I think is everywhere except, NI, the speaker, and the green Carolina Lucas.
Thanks. Just found out that UKIP are contesting 42% of seats in the South West. I can't see them contesting more than 50% overall on that basis, although I'll stand corrected if wrong.
I saw on the council website that UKIP are not standing in 5 of 6 Cornish seats - Truro being the exception.
Yesterday I heard UKIP were standing in all but three seats in the North East (so about 26 out of 29), and one UKIP official mentioned them standing nearly everywhere in London - if all the candidates managed to file on time. That would surprise me as UKIP are weak in most of London, but then again there is a large population to draw on.
It was on TV news that the Cornish independence party were not standing in this election.
Could their supporters vote Lib Dem and offset UKIP not standing and the UKIP support going to Conservatives?
I wonder whether the opinion pollsters will take into account the fact that UKIP may not be standing in about 50% of seats, if that turns out to be the case.
Almost inevitably not. How can they have done so up until now? Moreover, will most of their respondents know whether or not Ukip will be on the ballot paper in their own constituency in future? This is actually rather interesting: I bet one Hell of a lot of Ukip voters are going to turn up in the polling booths on June 8th, discover that Ukip is missing from their ballot papers, and have to make a snap decision on which way to jump. This could materially affect the final outcome in quite a lot of seats.
I don't think that any of the polls contain any questions to the effect of: "Ukip voters: what is your second preference if your own favoured party can't be arsed?" So we are left to guess. Will the results in seats where this happens generally favour the Tories, Labour, neither, or be wildly different between individual constituencies? We just don't know.
UKIP aren't standing in quite a lot of seats where they did extremely well in 2015 like Bournemouth West, Devon West, Witham, etc. As you say, this could seriously mess up the pollsters' accuracy. On the other hand, it provides a handy excuse for them if they do get it wrong. They can simply say that there was no way for them to account for whether UKIP were standing in particular constituencies which is why, for instance, they may underestimate the final Tory share.
Most polls are online, it's surely not beyond the wit of man for pollsters to go through the candidate lists once they're tabulated, and therefore ensure that panellists are not presented with parties who are not standing in their seat.
Could be done easily enough with phone polls as well, not a huge logistical challenge IMO.
Apologies if it's already been discussed earlier, but does anyone know how many UKIP and Green candidates will be standing at the general election? Also how many LDs aren't standing?
Don't know about the others but I understand LD are standing in 630, which I think is everywhere except, NI, the speaker, and the green Carolina Lucas.
Thanks. Just found out that UKIP are contesting 42% of seats in the South West. I can't see them contesting more than 50% overall on that basis, although I'll stand corrected if wrong.
I saw on the council website that UKIP are not standing in 5 of 6 Cornish seats - Truro being the exception.
Yesterday I heard UKIP were standing in all but three seats in the North East (so about 26 out of 29), and one UKIP official mentioned them standing nearly everywhere in London - if all the candidates managed to file on time. That would surprise me as UKIP are weak in most of London, but then again there is a large population to draw on.
It was on TV news that the Cornish independence party were not standing in this election.
Could their supporters vote Lib Dem and offset UKIP not standing and the UKIP support going to Conservatives?
Their vote could go to the LibDems, certainly, but not all of it. Meanwhile UKIP polled far better than Mebyon Kernow in most, if not all, of the seats in Cornwall.
Having both parties not standing is a significant net plus for the Conservatives in Cornwall.
I wonder whether the opinion pollsters will take into account the fact that UKIP may not be standing in about 50% of seats, if that turns out to be the case.
Almost inevitably not. How can they have done so up until now? Moreover, will most of their respondents know whether or not Ukip will be on the ballot paper in their own constituency in future? This is actually rather interesting: I bet one Hell of a lot of Ukip voters are going to turn up in the polling booths on June 8th, discover that Ukip is missing from their ballot papers, and have to make a snap decision on which way to jump. This could materially affect the final outcome in quite a lot of seats.
I don't think that any of the polls contain any questions to the effect of: "Ukip voters: what is your second preference if your own favoured party can't be arsed?" So we are left to guess. Will the results in seats where this happens generally favour the Tories, Labour, neither, or be wildly different between individual constituencies? We just don't know.
UKIP aren't standing in quite a lot of seats where they did extremely well in 2015 like Bournemouth West, Devon West, Witham, etc. As you say, this could seriously mess up the pollsters' accuracy. On the other hand, it provides a handy excuse for them if they do get it wrong. They can simply say that there was no way for them to account for whether UKIP were standing in particular constituencies which is why, for instance, they may underestimate the final Tory share.
Most polls are online, it's surely not beyond the wit of man for pollsters to go through the candidate lists once they're tabulated, and therefore ensure that panellists are not presented with parties who are not standing in their seat.
Could be done easily enough with phone polls as well, not a huge logistical challenge IMO.
Except then the samples will be all screwed up based upon what one individual happened to have stand in their seat rather than nationwide opinion.
Besides there's a bit of putting the cart before the horse here. Its not so much that UKIP aren't standing in a lot of seats so therefore they'll have a low share, more that UKIP are going to have a low share so they're not standing in a lot of seats. If UKIP were very popular right now you can bet they'd be standing [virtually] everywhere again.
I wonder whether the opinion pollsters will take into account the fact that UKIP may not be standing in about 50% of seats, if that turns out to be the case.
Almost inevitably not. How can they have done so up until now? Moreover, will most of their respondents know whether or not Ukip will be on the ballot paper in their own constituency in future? This is actually rather interesting: I bet one Hell of a lot of Ukip voters are going to turn up in the polling booths on June 8th, discover that Ukip is missing from their ballot papers, and have to make a snap decision on which way to jump. This could materially affect the final outcome in quite a lot of seats.
I don't think that any of the polls contain any questions to the effect of: "Ukip voters: what is your second preference if your own favoured party can't be arsed?" So we are left to guess. Will the results in seats where this happens generally favour the Tories, Labour, neither, or be wildly different between individual constituencies? We just don't know.
UKIP aren't standing in quite a lot of seats where they did extremely well in 2015 like Bournemouth West, Devon West, Witham, etc. As you say, this could seriously mess up the pollsters' accuracy. On the other hand, it provides a handy excuse for them if they do get it wrong. They can simply say that there was no way for them to account for whether UKIP were standing in particular constituencies which is why, for instance, they may underestimate the final Tory share.
Most polls are online, it's surely not beyond the wit of man for pollsters to go through the candidate lists once they're tabulated, and therefore ensure that panellists are not presented with parties who are not standing in their seat.
Could be done easily enough with phone polls as well, not a huge logistical challenge IMO.
Except then the samples will be all screwed up based upon what one individual happened to have stand in their seat rather than nationwide opinion.
In the case of UKIP it will be a large proportion of seats where they're not standing - they were aiming for 400 or so and may not achieve that. Measuring "nationwide opinion" is not much good if a third to a half of those opinions won't result in an actual UKIP vote.
Labour have never had a problem with putting out popular policies. The issue is with selling them as deliverable and affordable.
People don't give a fuck if anything is affordable or not. There are countries with way more debt than the UK and the sun still comes up the next day.
Venezuela for example.....
Exactly. People kept voting for the Chavez/Maduro project even when it was readily apparent that it was going to to be a disaster because they kept doling out the largesse.
And I'm still convinced that all these results around 30% for Labour are evidence of another polling fail. But we still have to wait another four weeks to find out, of course...
Personally I am finding it hard to think they will do as well as Ed Miliband...but then I also really don't believe 1 in 2 voters will vote for the Tories. Knock 3-4% off both and I might be more convinced.
Worth remembering that almost all polls in the period leading up to the election in 2015 were reporting Labour shares of 31-35%
Almost all polls now for Labour are in the range 27-31%
Labour is polling about 4% less now than it was last cycle. How much of that is due to the polls being fixed and how much due to a change in popularity? Its hard to tell but there is a change.
But if the polls were using the same methodology as used in 2015 we would be seeing polling figures of 29% - 33% circa!
So of the 4% change roughly 2% due to corrections to methodology and 2% due to Corbyn's party being less popular than Miliband's party.
Implies a Labour share of about 28.4% - sounds about right as a gut feeling.
Apologies if it's already been discussed earlier, but does anyone know how many UKIP and Green candidates will be standing at the general election? Also how many LDs aren't standing?
Don't know about the others but I understand LD are standing in 630, which I think is everywhere except, NI, the speaker, and the green Carolina Lucas.
Thanks. Just found out that UKIP are contesting 42% of seats in the South West. I can't see them contesting more than 50% overall on that basis, although I'll stand corrected if wrong.
I saw on the council website that UKIP are not standing in 5 of 6 Cornish seats - Truro being the exception.
Yesterday I heard UKIP were standing in all but three seats in the North East (so about 26 out of 29), and one UKIP official mentioned them standing nearly everywhere in London - if all the candidates managed to file on time. That would surprise me as UKIP are weak in most of London, but then again there is a large population to draw on.
It was on TV news that the Cornish independence party were not standing in this election.
Could their supporters vote Lib Dem and offset UKIP not standing and the UKIP support going to Conservatives?
Their vote could go to the LibDems, certainly, but not all of it. Meanwhile UKIP polled far better than Mebyon Kernow in most, if not all, of the seats in Cornwall.
Having both parties not standing is a significant net plus for the Conservatives in Cornwall.
31% of people are f##king deluded....what part of the Venezuelan Utopian manifesto is well thought through. In most cases they don't even lay out any sort of plan.
If I posted a comment saying that 52% of people are f##king deluded to vote for brexit, it would quite rightly be criticised on here for being elitist/patronising, so why is it ok to make that kind of comment about Labour supporters? Golden rule of politics, don't insult the voters.
Hope I don't keep you awake but I should have added one thing. In conversation afterwords I was amazed by the number of people who openly admitted not to having voted last week.
Amazed because this was a politically interested audience. However all claimed that they were certainly voting next month and none of them were voting Tory!
Apologies if it's already been discussed earlier, but does anyone know how many UKIP and Green candidates will be standing at the general election? Also how many LDs aren't standing?
Don't know about the others but I understand LD are standing in 630, which I think is everywhere except, NI, the speaker, and the green Carolina Lucas.
Thanks. Just found out that UKIP are contesting 42% of seats in the South West. I can't see them contesting more than 50% overall on that basis, although I'll stand corrected if wrong.
I saw on the council website that UKIP are not standing in 5 of 6 Cornish seats - Truro being the exception.
Yesterday I heard UKIP were standing in all but three seats in the North East (so about 26 out of 29), and one UKIP official mentioned them standing nearly everywhere in London - if all the candidates managed to file on time. That would surprise me as UKIP are weak in most of London, but then again there is a large population to draw on.
It was on TV news that the Cornish independence party were not standing in this election.
Could their supporters vote Lib Dem and offset UKIP not standing and the UKIP support going to Conservatives?
Their vote could go to the LibDems, certainly, but not all of it. Meanwhile UKIP polled far better than Mebyon Kernow in most, if not all, of the seats in Cornwall.
Having both parties not standing is a significant net plus for the Conservatives in Cornwall.
Just a few hours after submitting his nomination, the LD candidate in Bury North has told voters in the constituency to vote Labour. It raises the question of why he didn't simply withdraw as a candidate. £500 wasted for the LDs.
Kipper standing in Leicester West. Good for Liz Kendall.
And no Green. Also good for Liz.
Mel Gould is standing for Greens, and there is an independent too.
According to the helpfully provided SOPN link, that Green lives at an address on Letchworth Road. I'm originally from there! Letchworth, that is, not Letchworth Road. Or Leicester. Would've thought Letchworth was far too little to merit having a road named after it in somewhere as far away as Leicester. You learn a new thing every day.
The nearest road to where I was born was called Lebanon Road, and that was in Wandsworth SW18. Road naming conventions are not always the same.
Ilford Road is a Metro station in Newcastle
When I did the Metro back in March, I made sure to alight there!
Used to be my commuting stop! No roads nearby give any hints to its provenance.
@CarlottaVance There is an Ilford Road immediately to the west of the station - unless it was something else when you were there?
Amazing news — no LD candidate in Skipton & Ripon.
Seems so but if you look at the SOPN there are 5 sets of proposers assentors and nominators but only 4 candidates
Usually where you see that it is because one candidate has huge number of nominations....
Yes often there are more than the required nominators but it is unusual to have more than 1 proposer and seconder
Both nominations for Julian Smith contain Conservative councillors - he has been nominated twice - used to happen a lot.
But this is VERY big news. Craven was LD held until the early 2000s. Skipton came within 500 votes of being taken by Claire Brookes in the October 74 GE. Of course Sedbergh was in Skipton back then and was probably the area where the Liberals failed in the 1970s.
Comments
He hasn't used multiple screen names like you.
He changed his user name after a break from PB, during which PB had changed commenting systems, and he chose something betting related.
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/862787384341139457
Wow.
Just as in 2015, it's the supplementaries that are killing Labour's chances...
Corbyn is properly far left, McDonnell too, and if anything the manifesto is toned down from where they would truly stand on many issues. Defence and taxation being two obvious examples.
The constituency vote shares are based on GB polls (or Scotland polls) plus a 1% or so swing Lab->Con because of previous polling errors in that direction.
Finally, EC have been adding details of parties not standing and adjusting parties' predicted constituency shares to zero (and re-allocating to other parties based on polling evidence) in those cases. They have some catching up to do here though.
The point is the Tories were ahead in the constituency by 10 points in 2015, EC estimate a 7.5-point swing in the national polls since then, therefore they predict Con holds it by about 25. And they haven't yet applied their adjustment to re-allocate the remaining votes for the non-existent UKIP candidate.
UKIP not even bothering to field candidates in many seats = Not taking GE seriously = No chance of success = No point voting for them
ie It will depress UKIP vote share even in seats where they are standing.
Final progressive alliance tally with nominations closed:
Greens stood aside: 22 seats
Lib Dems: 1 seat
Labour: 0 seats
It appears UKIP are NOT standing here, despite this being Paul Nuttal's local seat and him being the candidate last time around.
Choice of only 5. Socialist Labour are standing (who?). And even more interesting, not one of the candidates has an address in the constituency.
Who was it who said they'd met the Conservative Party candidate (TP?). Are they intending to do any campaigning here? Is anyone going to do any campaigning here?
Question Time audience - I can answer since I was actually there and enjoyed it greatly even though I didn't get to make a contribution.
I don't know what came across on TV but as live the audience were diverse and active with a narrow majority pro-independence and a bigger majority for Europe and the SNP. Hayman and Cherry were best received, Thornby got a much better hearing than usual, Ben Wallace went down badly although he was nothing like as bad as the rather sinister country set Tory from Money Week.
Most interesting chat afterwards was the number of people who were pro the Labour manifesto but are going to vote SNP to oppose the Tories.
Not listening and reacting to criticism is the greatest error in politics. Criticism literally suggests how you might gain the votes of those who currently disagree with you...
From memory there were at least two seats where Greens didn't stand which helped Lab to win very close contests in 2015 - think two were Chester and Wirral West.
Are Greens standing in those seats this time?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_of_Edinburgh_Council_election,_2017
If, say, SLab converted to the cause of independence it would split the vote. Sure, they could form coalitions, but that's not the same as single-party dominance in terms of providing momentum towards the desired outcome.
https://www.cheshirewestandchester.gov.uk/your-council/voting-and-elections/Election 2017/City-Of-Chester-Election-2017.aspx
Those three plus Green are contesting Wirral West:
https://www.wirral.gov.uk/sites/default/files/all/Elections and voting/Statement of Persons Nominated for Wirral West Parliamentary election June 8 2017.pdf
Edit - And UKIP aren't standing, so she should be toast.
Yesterday I heard UKIP were standing in all but three seats in the North East (so about 26 out of 29), and one UKIP official mentioned them standing nearly everywhere in London - if all the candidates managed to file on time. That would surprise me as UKIP are weak in most of London, but then again there is a large population to draw on.
Could their supporters vote Lib Dem and offset UKIP not standing and the UKIP support going to Conservatives?
Could be done easily enough with phone polls as well, not a huge logistical challenge IMO.
Meanwhile UKIP polled far better than Mebyon Kernow in most, if not all, of the seats in Cornwall.
Having both parties not standing is a significant net plus for the Conservatives in Cornwall.
Besides there's a bit of putting the cart before the horse here. Its not so much that UKIP aren't standing in a lot of seats so therefore they'll have a low share, more that UKIP are going to have a low share so they're not standing in a lot of seats. If UKIP were very popular right now you can bet they'd be standing [virtually] everywhere again.
Implies a Labour share of about 28.4% - sounds about right as a gut feeling.
"Non ci sono eventi disponibili."
I was interested to see whether the LDs are still being quoted odds in Skipton & Ripon.
Hope I don't keep you awake but I should have added one thing. In conversation afterwords I was amazed by the number of people who openly admitted not to having voted last week.
Amazed because this was a politically interested audience. However all claimed that they were certainly voting next month and none of them were voting Tory!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wZeniqnMi1dyuB1eqCCumUq1kp8O_57TQsLyPwmLtQc/htmlview#gid=0
It surprised me that MK have not polled better over the years - they are certainly no Plaid Cymru!
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-39885399
There is an Ilford Road immediately to the west of the station - unless it was something else when you were there?
But this is VERY big news. Craven was LD held until the early 2000s. Skipton came within 500 votes of being taken by Claire Brookes in the October 74 GE. Of course Sedbergh was in Skipton back then and was probably the area where the Liberals failed in the 1970s.