You what...I wasn't aware the Tories had even starting running a campaign yet.
Asked which party is running the best election campaign 42% said the Tories, 20% Labour, 5% Lib Dems and 2% UKIP.
Based on the news coverage that I've read seen and heard, you'd be right. The Conservatives are fairly quiet. The person that has the most exposure is Corbyn and the policies that have most exposure are Labour's.
Is THE value bet of the 2017 GE the prospect of the Tories winning Brighton Pavilion from the Greens, for which those nice folk at BetFred, Laddies & Corals are offering very tasty odds of 7/1? At first glance this seems most unlikely, particularly by reference to the GE result in 2015, when the Tory came home in a very poor 3rd place with 12.5k votes, that's 2.5k votes behind Labour and a socking great 10.4k votes behind the Greens.
So what's changed? Well first and foremost of course is the fact that the Tories' national share of the vote has increased sharply since 2015, from 36.8% of the UK vote then to around 45% currently, whilst the Greens' share has fallen to 3% or less of the UK share.
Baxter is currently showing the Tories as having a surprisingly high 56% chance of winning this seat, compared with the Greens with a 24% chance and Labour bringing up the rear on just 19%. Putting that another way, the Tories are considered more than twice as likely as the Greens to win this seat and three times more likely than Labour.
Nothing, absolutely nothing would give me greater delight in the early hours of 9th June than to see Caroline Lucas chucked out at Brighton Pavilion. My level of joy and delight would exceed even that of witnessing St.Vince failing in his attempt to recapture Twickenham.
The sheer received wisdom that the Greens essentially "own" this seat has dissuaded me from opposing them to any significant monetary extent and I've therefore limited myself to investing a modest tenner on the Blue Team. As ever, DYOR.
It is Remania central though, hence the odds presumably.
Possibly so ..... it's certainly the lefty University student vote which wins it for the Greens. That said, I believe Baxter factors in the Remain/Leave preference into his calculations. Whether his sums are right or wrong we'll just have to wait and see.
"Asked which party is running the best election campaign 42% said the Tories, 20% Labour, 5% Lib Dems and 2% UKIP."
Wow! The Tories are hardly even running a campaign.
The virtue of standing still whilst everyone else goes backwards I guess.
Yeah considering how low key the Tory campaign is to come top with a large lead more or less implies that the Labour campaign is a net negative for the Labour Party.
Take out flubs from the likes of Abbot and Raynor and its not been terrible exactly, but Abbot's in particular was probably a drag to those who became aware of it.
By 78% to 12% ComRes/Mirror poll finds voters support keeping ban on fox-hunting. TMay wants to lift the ban.
I am so so shocked. How many will not vote Tory because of that policy (to hold a free vote, presumably)? Cumulative effect of other policies, I grant you, but this is not exactly a stunner because the Tory obsession with this issue (or obsession from some of its members on it) is not shared by the general public.
One other point, like budget reactions, opinions often shift when people start to hear the detail, some potential problems (in Labour's sweetie shop manifesto, it is more what isn't a problem) and have a bit of a think.
And the proposals aren't getting much rebuttal from the Conservatives who are running a light-touch submarine campaign so far.
Lab's tactics have been right to date - to try to move the narrative away from Brexit and Corbyn vs May with lots of policy announcements. But I wonder what they will fill the remaining 4 weeks with now that their manifesto proposals are all in the open.
Once we get into the final 2-3 weeks, the Conservative machine will no doubt open up on both policy and personalities - I suspect it will be brutal. Unless 24% leads are still in place, in which case why rock the boat?
By 78% to 12% ComRes/Mirror poll finds voters support keeping ban on fox-hunting. TMay wants to lift the ban.
No she doesn't. She wants to allow a free vote.
Potato, potato in the eyes of the public. They'll see she wants to allow a free vote, and presume she would only do that if she wants it to pass (particularly if quotes exist of her saying she supports fox hunting). I really don't see this as an issue excising much impact, but it is apparently unequivocally popular with most people, so expect to see it come up a lot.
No surprise that T May opponents are banging on about fox hunting when the same poll shows only 30% support Corbyn as PM and 56% think he'd be a disaster!
No surprise that T May opponents are banging on about fox hunting when the same poll shows only 30% support Corbyn as PM and 56% think he'd be a disaster!
By 78% to 12% ComRes/Mirror poll finds voters support keeping ban on fox-hunting. TMay wants to lift the ban.
No she doesn't. She wants to allow a free vote.
Potato, potato in the eyes of the public. They'll see she wants to allow a free vote, and presume she would only do that if she wants it to pass (particularly if quotes exist of her saying she supports fox hunting). I really don't see this as an issue excising much impact, but it is apparently unequivocally popular with most people, so expect to see it come up a lot.
No - a free vote is not the same as a Government bill which is being whipped. Don't underestimate the public. We proles aren't THAT thick, despite the perceived wisdom on here.
Of course if a bill IS introduced to bring back fox hunting then I will do what I can to stop it passing (marching, lobbying, writing to MP etc).
Voters love all of Labour's spending commitments - HOWEVER...
- No sign that the pollster also asked the public which of their taxes they would like putting up to pay for it all (this, admittedly, would be hard to tie in with Labour's manifesto itself, given that a few spending commitments are tied into hypothecated taxes, but most of them are unfunded.) - Labour ahead on health and education, but Tories ahead on economic competence, crime and defence. - Over half of respondents said Corbyn would be a disaster as PM.
And, right at the very end...
"Asked which party is running the best election campaign 42% said the Tories, 20% Labour, 5% Lib Dems and 2% UKIP."
People love free everything, but only if they feel that it really *IS* free, i.e. that it's not going to return to haunt them in the form of horrid tax rises. The Scottish Government can offer free student tuition, prescriptions and elderly care and get away with it, because it's paid for by a whacking great subsidy. Labour will try to pretend that it can raise everything it needs through a combination of massive, entirely consequence-free, borrowing and taxing the rich until the pips squeak, but a critical mass of the electorate won't believe that. Borrowing does not come without consequences, and there aren't enough wealthy individuals available to finance the 373 squillion quids' worth of new spending that Labour would like.
Some voters will always be seduced, whether through political inclination or wishful thinking, into buying enthusiastically into the magic money tree. But many more others know that if it were really that easy then one or the other of the big parties would already have done it, and reaped immense political rewards as a result.
Labour's plans are a fantasy, designed to try to shore up the core vote. This, in fact, is probably a good strategy for a party that has given up on winning in the country and is concentrating on defending its citadels, but it won't get them anywhere near power.
Voters love all of Labour's spending commitments - HOWEVER...
- No sign that the pollster also asked the public which of their taxes they would like putting up to pay for it all (this, admittedly, would be hard to tie in with Labour's manifesto itself, given that a few spending commitments are tied into hypothecated taxes, but most of them are unfunded.) - Labour ahead on health and education, but Tories ahead on economic competence, crime and defence. - Over half of respondents said Corbyn would be a disaster as PM.
And, right at the very end...
"Asked which party is running the best election campaign 42% said the Tories, 20% Labour, 5% Lib Dems and 2% UKIP."
People love free everything, but only if they feel that it really *IS* free, i.e. that it's not going to return to haunt them in the form of horrid tax rises. The Scottish Government can offer free student tuition, prescriptions and elderly care and get away with it, because it's paid for by a whacking great subsidy. Labour will try to pretend that it can raise everything it needs through a combination of massive, entirely consequence-free, borrowing and taxing the rich until the pips squeak, but a critical mass of the electorate won't believe that. Borrowing does not come without consequences, and there aren't enough wealthy individuals available to finance the 373 squillion quids' worth of new spending that Labour would like.
Some voters will always be seduced, whether through political inclination or wishful thinking, into buying enthusiastically into the magic money tree. But many more others know that if it were really that easy then one or the other of the big parties would already have done it, and reaped immense political rewards as a result.
Labour's plans are a fantasy, designed to try to shore up the core vote. This, in fact, is probably a good strategy for a party that has given up on winning in the country and is concentrating on defending its citadels, but it won't get them anywhere near power.
We know they want to get 30% so they can claim they have a mandate to carry on.
By 78% to 12% ComRes/Mirror poll finds voters support keeping ban on fox-hunting. TMay wants to lift the ban.
No she doesn't. She wants to allow a free vote.
She's pro fox hunting.
"I've always been in favour of hunting & we maintain our commitment - we've had a commitment previously - to allow a free vote"
I never said she wasn't. :-) I was responding to the claim that she was" going to bring it back" - which implies formal government action rather than a free vote. (See also my views in previous post where I state my opposition to fox hunting)
The sheer received wisdom that the Greens essentially "own" this seat has dissuaded me from opposing them to any significant monetary extent and I've therefore limited myself to investing a modest tenner on the Blue Team.
I don't like how people seem to be helping out or advocating helping because its nice Caroline Lucas, with no thought about why then should you fight hard when she stands down, the Greens will make the case they have the best shot next time too. Might as well go for it big now, if she holds on that's great, if she loses its one seat among 650, and maybe the Greens get written out of the chances next time.
2 Thoughts,
Caroline Lucas, like or hate her politics is a reasonably good media performer, especially compared to the rest of the green party. if she leave parliament, does that give her more time to take to the airwaves? or does she get less attention because she is not an MP. I don't know but I suspect the forma.
I think the LibDems are standing down in her seat. while conventional wisdme is that this will help her, I'm not so shore, at lib dem that was leaning Green probably new this was the greens only/best hope and voted for her in 2015, so the 2,500 left probably contain a high mix of Con leaning LibDems.
They did ask an unusual VI-like question. something along the lines of "which party have you been more inclined to vote for since the election was announced" Con 45, Lab 35.
By 78% to 12% ComRes/Mirror poll finds voters support keeping ban on fox-hunting. TMay wants to lift the ban.
No she doesn't. She wants to allow a free vote.
Potato, potato in the eyes of the public. They'll see she wants to allow a free vote, and presume she would only do that if she wants it to pass (particularly if quotes exist of her saying she supports fox hunting). I really don't see this as an issue excising much impact, but it is apparently unequivocally popular with most people, so expect to see it come up a lot.
No - a free vote is not the same as a Government bill which is being whipped. Don't underestimate the public. We proles aren't THAT thick, despite the perceived wisdom on here.
Of course if a bill IS introduced to bring back fox hunting then I will do what I can to stop it passing (marching, lobbying, writing to MP etc).
Most MPs don't need to be whipped, they know what they have to do without urging (not to mention generally being supportive), but in any case that's irrelevant if people think the vote would succeed, and if TMay is indeed on record as saying she supports fox hunting people will not unreasonably expect it to pass. That might be wrong, but the message of this election is 'Strong and Stable TMay has the right plans for the country and she gets what she wants' and she wants fox-hunting apparently. It's not a question of people being thick for not attempting to tally the views of all potential Tory winners to see if a vote would pass, but presuming TMay's opinion is likely the predominate one within the party she leads. I cannot see many non extreme lefties caring enough for it to change anything though.
Is THE value bet of the 2017 GE the prospect of the Tories winning Brighton Pavilion from the Greens, for which those nice folk at BetFred, Laddies & Corals are offering very tasty odds of 7/1? At first glance this seems most unlikely, particularly by reference to the GE result in 2015, when the Tory came home in a very poor 3rd place with 12.5k votes, that's 2.5k votes behind Labour and a socking great 10.4k votes behind the Greens.
So what's changed? Well first and foremost of course is the fact that the Tories' national share of the vote has increased sharply since 2015, from 36.8% of the UK vote then to around 45% currently, whilst the Greens' share has fallen to 3% or less of the UK share.
Baxter is currently showing the Tories as having a surprisingly high 56% chance of winning this seat, compared with the Greens with a 24% chance and Labour bringing up the rear on just 19%. Putting that another way, the Tories are considered more than twice as likely as the Greens to win this seat and three times more likely than Labour.
Nothing, absolutely nothing would give me greater delight in the early hours of 9th June than to see Caroline Lucas chucked out at Brighton Pavilion. My level of joy and delight would exceed even that of witnessing St.Vince failing in his attempt to recapture Twickenham.
The sheer received wisdom that the Greens essentially "own" this seat has dissuaded me from opposing them to any significant monetary extent and I've therefore limited myself to investing a modest tenner on the Blue Team. As ever, DYOR.
It is Remania central though, hence the odds presumably.
Possibly so ..... it's certainly the lefty University student vote which wins it for the Greens. That said, I believe Baxter factors in the Remain/Leave preference into his calculations. Whether his sums are right or wrong we'll just have to wait and see.
Does anyone think the University vote will be diminished by holding the election in June? Surely students will be heading home for the summer.
"Asked which party is running the best election campaign 42% said the Tories, 20% Labour, 5% Lib Dems and 2% UKIP."
Wow! The Tories are hardly even running a campaign.
Yeah I have not been impressed at all by the tory campaign so far.
Who has? It's been vestigial. However, I suspect the FTPA's shadow is to blame. Had Jezza dug his heels in we'd have had two weeks plus of constitutional shenanigans in order to fire the starting gun on the election. T May couldn't know he'd play ball hence the "long" seven and a bit week campaign rather than say four or five and a bit. Without FTPA I guess we'd be voting a week next Thursday.
Boredom and pace therefore become particular factor I guess in campaign thinking. That said, I think Labour have done reasonably so far given it was all a surprise for them (excepting Abbott making an utter clown of herself), and the Tories have held fire so far. Are the Tories bemused too or merely waiting for the moment to open fire without being too far out from June 8? We will see.
The Libs have to be worried: "Ultra Remain" is getting zero traction and they seem becalmed between a mildly rising Labour flow, and an incoming tide of Kippers heading for the Tories to seal their Brexit deal.
By 78% to 12% ComRes/Mirror poll finds voters support keeping ban on fox-hunting. TMay wants to lift the ban.
I am so so shocked. How many will not vote Tory because of that policy (to hold a free vote, presumably)? Cumulative effect of other policies, I grant you, but this is not exactly a stunner because the Tory obsession with this issue (or obsession from some of its members on it) is not shared by the general public.
I personally have no strong felings about the ban. It is repellant as a pastime, but on the other hand I am a Liberal and do not like things to be banned.
It is a rather totemic issue that shows the Tories as the Nasty Party. A lot of this is about image.
By 78% to 12% ComRes/Mirror poll finds voters support keeping ban on fox-hunting. TMay wants to lift the ban.
90% of voters wanted to retain capital punishment in 1965 but MPs ignored them, so there's a strong precedent for parliamentarians doing what they think is right in defiance of public opinion.
No surprise that T May opponents are banging on about fox hunting when the same poll shows only 30% support Corbyn as PM and 56% think he'd be a disaster!
I voted in one of those by-elections today. If the Conservatives win Woodville by one, I did it.
Woody - how do you fancy the Tories' chances in Derby South? .....I backed them at seemingly generous odds of 11/2, but around 3/1 the last time I looked.
Kipper standing in Leicester West. Good for Liz Kendall.
And no Green. Also good for Liz.
Mel Gould is standing for Greens, and there is an independent too.
According to the helpfully provided SOPN link, that Green lives at an address on Letchworth Road. I'm originally from there! Letchworth, that is, not Letchworth Road. Or Leicester. Would've thought Letchworth was far too little to merit having a road named after it in somewhere as far away as Leicester. You learn a new thing every day.
The nearest road to where I was born was called Lebanon Road, and that was in Wandsworth SW18. Road naming conventions are not always the same.
Ilford Road is a Metro station in Newcastle
When I did the Metro back in March, I made sure to alight there!
We know they want to get 30% so they can claim they have a mandate to carry on.
Yeah the deliberate leak, the large amount of Unite money, manifesto commitments, and the talk of vote share not seats, they all point to a campaign that is more about maintaining Corbyn's hold on the leadership post election rather than actually winning it.
Does anyone have historic figures on these? I feel like nationalisation is always more popular than people think, like all those people stunned the death penalty was popular post brexit, forgetting it was popular pre brexit too (though is I believe more strongly supported by Leavers). I know I've answered support for rail nationalisation in a poll before.
Little surprised nationalising royal mail isn't more popular than nationalising railways though.
31% of people are f##king deluded....what part of the Venezuelan Utopian manifesto is well thought through. In most cases they don't even lay out any sort of plan.
All this talk about landslides and 100 plus tory majorities. Not going to happen if they don't raise their game. Can see this Labour line firming up.
Wrong. On the key questions the Tories have a 50/20 lead.
They do need to pick up though - Lab are still not in a great position on VI even if they've improved somewhat, and their ratings in other areas is pretty dismal, but Corbyn and co seem to have a plan to minimise the damage as best they can, and it might not likely prevent a bad night, but it could prevent an atrocious night.
All this talk about landslides and 100 plus tory majorities. Not going to happen if they don't raise their game. Can see this Labour line firming up.
Yes. This has just been the 'Not Corbyn' show so far, but for Jezza the only way is up and I think he's rather enjoying it. If Theresa doesn't secure a phantasmagorical majority now it will look like a damp squib, and when the cold and brutal Brexit work has to begin again she'll be weakened and under pressure.
All this talk about landslides and 100 plus tory majorities. Not going to happen if they don't raise their game. Can see this Labour line firming up.
Yes. This has just been the 'Not Corbyn' show so far, but for Jezza the only way is up and I think he's rather enjoying it. If Theresa doesn't secure a phantasmagorical majority now it will look like a damp squib, and when the cold and brutal Brexit work has to begin again she'll be weakened and under pressure.
I think she'll be quite content with a medium-sized majority with Corbyn clinging to power.
We haven't heard the Tory policies yet though have we? Are the 51% also deluded?
Well I am not exactly very impressed with them either.
I have mentioned this before a number of times, no party is really proposing new interesting policies for the modern age. One is back to the failed policies of the 70s and the other is steady as she goes, we will do a bit of tinkering but thats all.
What happened to the likes of IPPR and the Public Exchange etc who used to pump out lots of policy ideas which were often filtered into party policies.
All this talk about landslides and 100 plus tory majorities. Not going to happen if they don't raise their game. Can see this Labour line firming up.
Yes. This has just been the 'Not Corbyn' show so far, but for Jezza the only way is up and I think he's rather enjoying it. If Theresa doesn't secure a phantasmagorical majority now it will look like a damp squib, and when the cold and brutal Brexit work has to begin again she'll be weakened and under pressure.
A majority of 60+ will be very comfortable for her to work with, I am sure, but after euphoria of expectation anyone who isn't a little disappointed they missed out on 100+ would surely be lying a little, even if what they get is what they would have been happy with at the start. A majority no or barely bigger than now would definitely be a damp squib, and make her look somewhat a fool. Along with all those Lab MPs who have criticised Corbyn.
Well yes. I'm "in favour" of keeping the pension age at 66 - that's £16.5k bung to me and the missus in effect as we'd be claiming at 67 otherwise. Do I think it's affordable for the country ? Do I hell.
If you say "here's a load of goodies you won't have to pay for, because companies and our definition of the rich will" -well great. Except the sums wont add up as ever so they'll soon be after me too of course.
Apologies if it's already been discussed earlier, but does anyone know how many UKIP and Green candidates will be standing at the general election? Also how many LDs aren't standing?
All this talk about landslides and 100 plus tory majorities. Not going to happen if they don't raise their game. Can see this Labour line firming up.
Yes. This has just been the 'Not Corbyn' show so far, but for Jezza the only way is up and I think he's rather enjoying it. If Theresa doesn't secure a phantasmagorical majority now it will look like a damp squib, and when the cold and brutal Brexit work has to begin again she'll be weakened and under pressure.
I think she'll be quite content with a medium-sized majority with Corbyn clinging to power.
Absolutely awful for the country and the Labour party though.
Does anyone have historic figures on these? I feel like nationalisation is always more popular than people think, like all those people stunned the death penalty was popular post brexit, forgetting it was popular pre brexit too (though is I believe more strongly supported by Leavers). I know I've answered support for rail nationalisation in a poll before.
Little surprised nationalising royal mail isn't more popular than nationalising railways though.
Nationalisation is popular until you explain it will cost a lot and things will likely remain just as bad.
BR was never very good, BT was worse than it is now when public owned, energy prices have little to do with ownership particularly as we've decided to reduce carbon emissions at considerable expense, Royal Mail is rapidly becoming a parcel and junk mail business. There really isn't any particularly good case for nationalising those industries, a change of structure and regulation could probably do more good at much less expense.
31% of people are f##king deluded....what part of the Venezuelan Utopian manifesto is well thought through. In most cases they don't even lay out any sort of plan.
I was going to comment it was it seems noone today tried to take up the faux outrage about the Mays' 'girl jobs and boy jobs' joke (she's the PM for christ's sake, I think it is safe to assume she thinks girls can do any job), then made the mistake of, in curiousity, going over to The Canary for the first time ever.
Apologies if it's already been discussed earlier, but does anyone know how many UKIP and Green candidates will be standing at the general election? Also how many LDs aren't standing?
No definitive lists as such, interested parties are still collating I believe.
Apologies if it's already been discussed earlier, but does anyone know how many UKIP and Green candidates will be standing at the general election? Also how many LDs aren't standing?
I would assume that the Lib Dems are standing everywhere in GB, except for Brighton Pavilion and Buckingham. No idea about Ukip and Greens, but would strongly suspect there will be more of the latter than the former, even accounting for near-total abstention by the Green wing of the SNP.
Does anyone have historic figures on these? I feel like nationalisation is always more popular than people think, like all those people stunned the death penalty was popular post brexit, forgetting it was popular pre brexit too (though is I believe more strongly supported by Leavers). I know I've answered support for rail nationalisation in a poll before.
Little surprised nationalising royal mail isn't more popular than nationalising railways though.
Nationalisation is popular until you explain it will cost a lot and things will likely remain just as bad.
Yes probably. As I say I've indicated in polls I suppose nationalisation, but as nervous a nelly as I am, I can see myself folding quick in the face of someone quoting facts and figures at me.
British adults are more likely to oppose than support the proposal to scrap the Conservative Party’s commitment to reduce net migration to the UK to below 100,000 (49% oppose v 32% support, with 19% saying don’t know).
31% of people are f##king deluded....what part of the Venezuelan Utopian manifesto is well thought through. In most cases they don't even lay out any sort of plan.
About 25-30% of the population are socialist, even Foot got 28% and Kinnock in 1987 and Miliband in 2015 got 30%, though the only genuine socialist to have actually won was Attlee
Does anyone have historic figures on these? I feel like nationalisation is always more popular than people think, like all those people stunned the death penalty was popular post brexit, forgetting it was popular pre brexit too (though is I believe more strongly supported by Leavers). I know I've answered support for rail nationalisation in a poll before.
Little surprised nationalising royal mail isn't more popular than nationalising railways though.
Nationalisation is popular until you explain it will cost a lot and things will likely remain just as bad.
BR was never very good, BT was worse than it is now when public owned, energy prices have little to do with ownership particularly as we've decided to reduce carbon emissions at considerable expense, Royal Mail is rapidly becoming a parcel and junk mail business. There really isn't any particularly good case for nationalising those industries, a change of structure and regulation could probably do more good at much less expense.
Nationalisation is a disaster.
The public like the idea of public ownership, and no private profit, but dislike the reality if it.
LOL, even I would say the Conservatives have the most "thought through" policies.
Of course. Darth Sidious thought very carefully on how to take over the galaxy, the point he was in control no matter who won a civil war. Obviously the Tories aren't quite that great yet in the planning.
Apparently the Labour manifesto includes a National Education Service. Isn't that literally from Yes Minister?
I am still trying to get over the ban on driverless trains....they are going to legislate so people are employed to convert the DLR to require a driver and then have to pay them £50-60k a year to drive it?
Its occurred to me that there are so many angles that its unlikely Trump and his team can shut them down. Today's raid on the GOP related lobbying and communications firm certainly points to easily identifiable players and certain investigative channels.
Way way back before polling day in the US election I said Trump was in way over his head but the scale of this thing, if all the dots being plotted are connected (I have some doubts but even then is a lot there that is fact), its so staggering that Trump isn't so much on over his head, as he is going to drown.
And its probably going to be all about the money.
All bets are off on next stand-in president if Trump is shoved out.
I'm going to throw a long range Democrat Candidate to run for President, Caroline Kennedy. 2020 probably too early, 2024 not.
British adults are more likely to oppose than support the proposal to scrap the Conservative Party’s commitment to reduce net migration to the UK to below 100,000 (49% oppose v 32% support, with 19% saying don’t know).
Is the Tory manifesto actually going to include any concrete proposals on reducing EU migration, once we've left the EU?
I have a horrible feeling this GE will see a lot of really good MPs get canned and the likes of f##king Dawn Butler be there ready for a bigger job....
Comments
Brexit,Brexit,Brexit.
She wants to allow a free vote.
Lab's tactics have been right to date - to try to move the narrative away from Brexit and Corbyn vs May with lots of policy announcements. But I wonder what they will fill the remaining 4 weeks with now that their manifesto proposals are all in the open.
Once we get into the final 2-3 weeks, the Conservative machine will no doubt open up on both policy and personalities - I suspect it will be brutal. Unless 24% leads are still in place, in which case why rock the boat?
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/16/marking-manifestos/
"I've always been in favour of hunting & we maintain our commitment - we've had a commitment previously - to allow a free vote"
Railway nationalisation? Fox hunting?
What percentage of the public really care?
Of course if a bill IS introduced to bring back fox hunting then I will do what I can to stop it passing (marching, lobbying, writing to MP etc).
Executive summary:
Voters love all of Labour's spending commitments - HOWEVER...
- No sign that the pollster also asked the public which of their taxes they would like putting up to pay for it all (this, admittedly, would be hard to tie in with Labour's manifesto itself, given that a few spending commitments are tied into hypothecated taxes, but most of them are unfunded.)
- Labour ahead on health and education, but Tories ahead on economic competence, crime and defence.
- Over half of respondents said Corbyn would be a disaster as PM.
And, right at the very end...
"Asked which party is running the best election campaign 42% said the Tories, 20% Labour, 5% Lib Dems and 2% UKIP."
People love free everything, but only if they feel that it really *IS* free, i.e. that it's not going to return to haunt them in the form of horrid tax rises. The Scottish Government can offer free student tuition, prescriptions and elderly care and get away with it, because it's paid for by a whacking great subsidy. Labour will try to pretend that it can raise everything it needs through a combination of massive, entirely consequence-free, borrowing and taxing the rich until the pips squeak, but a critical mass of the electorate won't believe that. Borrowing does not come without consequences, and there aren't enough wealthy individuals available to finance the 373 squillion quids' worth of new spending that Labour would like.
Some voters will always be seduced, whether through political inclination or wishful thinking, into buying enthusiastically into the magic money tree. But many more others know that if it were really that easy then one or the other of the big parties would already have done it, and reaped immense political rewards as a result.
Labour's plans are a fantasy, designed to try to shore up the core vote. This, in fact, is probably a good strategy for a party that has given up on winning in the country and is concentrating on defending its citadels, but it won't get them anywhere near power.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15279270.Kremlin_to_move_against_SNP_over_policy_on_Brexit/
I was responding to the claim that she was" going to bring it back" - which implies formal government action rather than a free vote.
(See also my views in previous post where I state my opposition to fox hunting)
Caroline Lucas, like or hate her politics is a reasonably good media performer, especially compared to the rest of the green party. if she leave parliament, does that give her more time to take to the airwaves? or does she get less attention because she is not an MP. I don't know but I suspect the forma.
I think the LibDems are standing down in her seat. while conventional wisdme is that this will help her, I'm not so shore, at lib dem that was leaning Green probably new this was the greens only/best hope and voted for her in 2015, so the 2,500 left probably contain a high mix of Con leaning LibDems.
I happen to be a prole myself. donchaknow.
Boredom and pace therefore become particular factor I guess in campaign thinking. That said, I think Labour have done reasonably so far given it was all a surprise for them (excepting Abbott making an utter clown of herself), and the Tories have held fire so far. Are the Tories bemused too or merely waiting for the moment to open fire without being too far out from June 8? We will see.
The Libs have to be worried: "Ultra Remain" is getting zero traction and they seem becalmed between a mildly rising Labour flow, and an incoming tide of Kippers heading for the Tories to seal their Brexit deal.
It is a rather totemic issue that shows the Tories as the Nasty Party. A lot of this is about image.
When I did the Metro back in March, I made sure to alight there!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Communist_Manifesto
Little surprised nationalising royal mail isn't more popular than nationalising railways though.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/862780055642144770
I have mentioned this before a number of times, no party is really proposing new interesting policies for the modern age. One is back to the failed policies of the 70s and the other is steady as she goes, we will do a bit of tinkering but thats all.
What happened to the likes of IPPR and the Public Exchange etc who used to pump out lots of policy ideas which were often filtered into party policies.
If you say "here's a load of goodies you won't have to pay for, because companies and our definition of the rich will" -well great. Except the sums wont add up as ever so they'll soon be after me too of course.
BR was never very good, BT was worse than it is now when public owned, energy prices have little to do with ownership particularly as we've decided to reduce carbon emissions at considerable expense, Royal Mail is rapidly becoming a parcel and junk mail business. There really isn't any particularly good case for nationalising those industries, a change of structure and regulation could probably do more good at much less expense.
Shallow populism does bring in those votes.
Chance of
winning
LAB
54%
CON
42%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/862780347683143682
While they are happy to increase taxes on the rich too the average voters want their own taxes cut
Disgusting front page,accidents happen.
The public like the idea of public ownership, and no private profit, but dislike the reality if it.
Its proper Luddite stuff.
TP is not value.
I like his posts but not his politics.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/862786047729692673
Its occurred to me that there are so many angles that its unlikely Trump and his team can shut them down. Today's raid on the GOP related lobbying and communications firm certainly points to easily identifiable players and certain investigative channels.
Way way back before polling day in the US election I said Trump was in way over his head but the scale of this thing, if all the dots being plotted are connected (I have some doubts but even then is a lot there that is fact), its so staggering that Trump isn't so much on over his head, as he is going to drown.
And its probably going to be all about the money.
All bets are off on next stand-in president if Trump is shoved out.
I'm going to throw a long range Democrat Candidate to run for President, Caroline Kennedy. 2020 probably too early, 2024 not.