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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four weeks to go and two local by-elections – LAB & CON defenc
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four weeks to go and two local by-elections – LAB & CON defences in seats where UKIP did well
Fairstead on King’s Lynn and West Norfolk (Lab defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 50, Labour 10, Independents 2 (Conservative majority of 38) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 753, 727 (39%) United Kingdom Independence Party 599 (31%) Conservatives 593, 469 (31%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 28,587 (34%) LEAVE 56,493 (66%) on a turnout of 75% Candidates duly nominated: Rob Colwell (Liberal Democrat), Gary Howman (Labour), Ronald Mortimer (Conservative) and Michael Stone (UKIP) Weather at the close of polls: Clear, 12°C Estimate: Too close to call (Lab 35%, Con 31%, Lib Dem 17%, UKIP 17%)
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First!
Only £100 but the large amount looking to back at 1.07 earlier has now all gone.
Good poll coming for Lab?
I'd say the progressive alliance is in the main centres around a common belief in social democracy/liberalism etc. It should avoid including the extreme parties - the most left wing they should go is the Greens really. Social democracy/liberalism is generally the common thread between all of these centre-left parties - Labour, SNP, LDs, Greens etc.
Greens not standing
Bad news for Blundell in Lewes
UKIP not standing either.
eg Last night:
18:00: BBC News at Six - 3.93m (31.5%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 3.31m (21.0%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.55m (18.4%)
22:00: ITV News at Ten - 1.95m (12.4%)
Usually BBC 6pm is well over 5m and BBC 10pm is well over 4m.
If the public is ignoring the campaign it makes it less likely that people will change their voting intention.
Low turnout = Labour voters have stayed at home.
High turnout = Brexiteers have come out for the big one for Theresa May.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/862431999511932928
Well as a strong opponent of the EU he would certainly have put his heart into it!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LTMO0-YGI4
Scotland bucking the trend since 2014
Hanging on by the skin of his teeth, with a pathetic majority of just 19,080 votes, I am sure that Sir Oliver will be relieved to have gained this welcome measure of assistance.
Analysis provided by D. Abbot.
That will teach me to speed read!
I predict that at some point during the campaign, there'll be a poll - even 2 polls in succession - that appears temporarily to turn the picture upside down. And there will be joy on the left and gloom on the right. Then normality will reassert itself.
In the last 2 elections SCons have been the most motivated voters and if the same happens again then SCon are poised for serious surge.
If Turnout is 64%-68% Then SCon are in for a good night. If it's over 70% then the SNP will see off SCon rises north of the Border seats I think.
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/862687485356277761
Then we can have the headline:
"Farron gets the finger in his constituency"
After this Mrs May could sack her chancellor so we can get the headline:
"Hammond removed from the organs of the Conservative party"
http://www.unitetheunion.org/news/unites-executive-council-agrees-labour-donation/
But will poll include voting intention?
I used to live in a flat on Walnut st with a view of half the pitch at the old Filbert st...
Wibbly wobbly Tory bottoms!
Cameron. Pledge a referendum on EU membership. NOW!
Osborne has to go.
That Michael Crick really is a...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Pryor_Letchworth
(I'll get my coat).
(grab my coat while you are at it)
I think that most of us can agree that there's potential for a number of Conservative gains in Scotland, but I haven't sat down and thought about their likely extent in the same way as I've spent time looking at Ukip to Con swing effects, or thinking about the Liberal Democrats. My own guesstimate at the outcome of the election as a whole, made on May 1st, has the SNP on 48 seats - which would imply a Tory result in Scotland of somewhere around... 7 seats. We shall see.
***** BETTING POST *****
Is THE value bet of the 2017 GE the prospect of the Tories winning Brighton Pavilion from the Greens, for which those nice folk at BetFred, Laddies & Corals are offering very tasty odds of 7/1?
At first glance this seems most unlikely, particularly by reference to the GE result in 2015, when the Tory came home in a very poor 3rd place with 12.5k votes, that's 2.5k votes behind Labour and a socking great 10.4k votes behind the Greens.
So what's changed? Well first and foremost of course is the fact that the Tories' national share of the vote has increased sharply since 2015, from 36.8% of the UK vote then to around 45% currently, whilst the Greens' share has fallen to 3% or less of the UK share.
Baxter is currently showing the Tories as having a surprisingly high 56% chance of winning this seat, compared with the Greens with a 24% chance and Labour bringing up the rear on just 19%. Putting that another way, the Tories are considered more than twice as likely as the Greens to win this seat and three times more likely than Labour.
Nothing, absolutely nothing would give me greater delight in the early hours of 9th June than to see Caroline Lucas chucked out at Brighton Pavilion. My level of joy and delight would exceed even that of witnessing St.Vince failing in his attempt to recapture Twickenham.
The sheer received wisdom that the Greens essentially "own" this seat has dissuaded me from opposing them to any significant monetary extent and I've therefore limited myself to investing a modest tenner on the Blue Team.
As ever, DYOR.
All [10 of 428]of the outgoing MPs chosen to run come from the Socialist Party of departing President François Hollande.
Mr Ferrand confirmed that Mr Macron's ex-cabinet colleague Manuel Valls - the former prime minister who has now burned his boats with his Socialists - had not been selected.
He said that he did "not meet the criteria" because he had already served three parliamentary terms.
But the party will not be running a candidate against him in his constituency in Essonne, south of Paris.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39881266
Asked which party is running the best election campaign 42% said the Tories, 20% Labour, 5% Lib Dems and 2% UKIP.
If they think May is guaranteed to stay in office regardless, then they may feel safe voting Labour in order to "send a message" that they want some of the things they're talking about, even if they don't want them to provide the PM.
Unite 14,132,000
Unison 9,964,000
GMB 848,000
USDAW 568,000
CWU 1,184,895
Community 52,000
FBU 680,791
UCAT -54,000
ASLEF 5,400
TSSA 6,155
Musitans Union 7,931
BFAW 6,660
BECTU 37,611
NUM 60,314
Edit - Knew it.
I sense a New Thread incoming.
"Asked which party is running the best election campaign 42% said the Tories, 20% Labour, 5% Lib Dems and 2% UKIP."
Wow! The Tories are hardly even running a campaign.
EDIT: Snap!
His prevarification and incoherrance over immigration, Brexit and defence will show up on polling day, especially in the North
By 78% to 12% ComRes/Mirror poll finds voters support keeping ban on fox-hunting. TMay wants to lift the ban.