politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four weeks to go and two local by-elections – LAB & CON defenc
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Four weeks to go and two local by-elections – LAB & CON defences in seats where UKIP did well
Fairstead on King’s Lynn and West Norfolk (Lab defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 50, Labour 10, Independents 2 (Conservative majority of 38) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 753, 727 (39%) United Kingdom Independence Party 599 (31%) Conservatives 593, 469 (31%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 28,587 (34%) LEAVE 56,493 (66%) on a turnout of 75% Candidates duly nominated: Rob Colwell (Liberal Democrat), Gary Howman (Labour), Ronald Mortimer (Conservative) and Michael Stone (UKIP) Weather at the close of polls: Clear, 12°C Estimate: Too close to call (Lab 35%, Con 31%, Lib Dem 17%, UKIP 17%)
Comments
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Booyah!
First!0 -
20
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Con Maj now available at 1.07.
Only £100 but the large amount looking to back at 1.07 earlier has now all gone.
Good poll coming for Lab?0 -
Was that ever in doubt, after all McCluskey got his side kick a nice little safe seat.TheScreamingEagles said:PoliticsHome✔@politicshome
EXCL Unite agrees to give up to £4.5m to Labour's election fighting fund http://bit.ly/2r4NhyF0 -
FPT:
Anti-austerity is very much of a 'now' issue (and tbf will be an issue for the forseeable future), whereas the idea of a progressive alliance goes back some way before 2008 crash - there was a period prior to the coalition and especially during the Charles Kennedy years, during which Labour supporters saw the LDs as their allies.kle4 said:
How would you define the progressive alliance as an idea, if I might ask? As I am still struggling with it, you see, given the inclusion of quite extreme parties to potentially defeat moderates, just moderates on the centre-right. Is the idea mostly about social progessiveness, anti-austerity?The_Apocalypse said:The problem for the progressive alliance is the following:
- All of these progressive parties, with the exception of the SNP have awful leadership
- These parties have no idea what their purpose is in a post-2008, post-coalition world with the exception of the SNP and to a degree the LDs (pro EU/anti-Brexit party)
The progressive alliance was thing and actually worked pre-2010, when at least one of the parties (generally both) had electable leaders, especially in the mid 90s - mid 2000s.
I'd say the progressive alliance is in the main centres around a common belief in social democracy/liberalism etc. It should avoid including the extreme parties - the most left wing they should go is the Greens really. Social democracy/liberalism is generally the common thread between all of these centre-left parties - Labour, SNP, LDs, Greens etc.0 -
It was in doubt over last weekend.SimonStClare said:
Was that ever in doubt, after all McCluskey got his side kick a nice little safe seat.TheScreamingEagles said:PoliticsHome✔@politicshome
EXCL Unite agrees to give up to £4.5m to Labour's election fighting fund http://bit.ly/2r4NhyF0 -
Good news for Blundell in Lewes
Greens not standing
Bad news for Blundell in Lewes
UKIP not standing either.0 -
TV news ratings are very weak at the moment - of course they fall as we move into summer but even so they may well suggest little interest in the campaign.
eg Last night:
18:00: BBC News at Six - 3.93m (31.5%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 3.31m (21.0%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.55m (18.4%)
22:00: ITV News at Ten - 1.95m (12.4%)
Usually BBC 6pm is well over 5m and BBC 10pm is well over 4m.
If the public is ignoring the campaign it makes it less likely that people will change their voting intention.0 -
Shit I am on 63+% turnout lolMikeL said:TV news ratings are very weak at the moment - of course they fall as we move into summer but even so they may well suggest little interest in the campaign.
eg Last night:
18:00: BBC News at Six - 3.93m (31.5%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 3.31m (21.0%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.55m (18.4%)
22:00: ITV News at Ten - 1.95m (12.4%)
Usually BBC 6pm is well over 5m and BBC 10pm is well over 4m.
If the public is ignoring the campaign it makes it less likely that people will change their voting intention.0 -
4 weeks to go yet. Suspect people will tune in more closer to the day, give it a week.Pulpstar said:
Shit I am on 63+% turnout lolMikeL said:TV news ratings are very weak at the moment - of course they fall as we move into summer but even so they may well suggest little interest in the campaign.
eg Last night:
18:00: BBC News at Six - 3.93m (31.5%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 3.31m (21.0%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.55m (18.4%)
22:00: ITV News at Ten - 1.95m (12.4%)
Usually BBC 6pm is well over 5m and BBC 10pm is well over 4m.
If the public is ignoring the campaign it makes it less likely that people will change their voting intention.0 -
Low Turnout means serious SCon gainsPulpstar said:
Shit I am on 63+% turnout lolMikeL said:TV news ratings are very weak at the moment - of course they fall as we move into summer but even so they may well suggest little interest in the campaign.
eg Last night:
18:00: BBC News at Six - 3.93m (31.5%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 3.31m (21.0%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.55m (18.4%)
22:00: ITV News at Ten - 1.95m (12.4%)
Usually BBC 6pm is well over 5m and BBC 10pm is well over 4m.
If the public is ignoring the campaign it makes it less likely that people will change their voting intention.0 -
Or out if it's a foregone conclusion.nunu said:
4 weeks to go yet. Suspect people will tune in more closer to the day, give it a week.Pulpstar said:
Shit I am on 63+% turnout lolMikeL said:TV news ratings are very weak at the moment - of course they fall as we move into summer but even so they may well suggest little interest in the campaign.
eg Last night:
18:00: BBC News at Six - 3.93m (31.5%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 3.31m (21.0%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.55m (18.4%)
22:00: ITV News at Ten - 1.95m (12.4%)
Usually BBC 6pm is well over 5m and BBC 10pm is well over 4m.
If the public is ignoring the campaign it makes it less likely that people will change their voting intention.0 -
Probably why the Tories are keeping a low profile at the moment. Wait until the last 10 days and then throw the kitchen sink at Corbyn and McDonnell.nunu said:
4 weeks to go yet. Suspect people will tune in more closer to the day, give it a week.Pulpstar said:
Shit I am on 63+% turnout lolMikeL said:TV news ratings are very weak at the moment - of course they fall as we move into summer but even so they may well suggest little interest in the campaign.
eg Last night:
18:00: BBC News at Six - 3.93m (31.5%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 3.31m (21.0%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.55m (18.4%)
22:00: ITV News at Ten - 1.95m (12.4%)
Usually BBC 6pm is well over 5m and BBC 10pm is well over 4m.
If the public is ignoring the campaign it makes it less likely that people will change their voting intention.0 -
I've got the Tory ramper turnout cheatsheet handy:Alistair said:
Low Turnout means serious SCon gainsPulpstar said:
Shit I am on 63+% turnout lolMikeL said:TV news ratings are very weak at the moment - of course they fall as we move into summer but even so they may well suggest little interest in the campaign.
eg Last night:
18:00: BBC News at Six - 3.93m (31.5%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 3.31m (21.0%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.55m (18.4%)
22:00: ITV News at Ten - 1.95m (12.4%)
Usually BBC 6pm is well over 5m and BBC 10pm is well over 4m.
If the public is ignoring the campaign it makes it less likely that people will change their voting intention.
Low turnout = Labour voters have stayed at home.
High turnout = Brexiteers have come out for the big one for Theresa May.0 -
Could be true.Pulpstar said:
I've got the Tory ramper turnout cheatsheet handy:Alistair said:
Low Turnout means serious SCon gainsPulpstar said:
Shit I am on 63+% turnout lolMikeL said:TV news ratings are very weak at the moment - of course they fall as we move into summer but even so they may well suggest little interest in the campaign.
eg Last night:
18:00: BBC News at Six - 3.93m (31.5%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 3.31m (21.0%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.55m (18.4%)
22:00: ITV News at Ten - 1.95m (12.4%)
Usually BBC 6pm is well over 5m and BBC 10pm is well over 4m.
If the public is ignoring the campaign it makes it less likely that people will change their voting intention.
Low turnout = Labour voters have stayed at home.
High turnout = Brexiteers have come out for the big one for Theresa May.0 -
Tweet plagiarism by journalist shocker...MarkHopkins said:
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/8624319995119329280 -
Thank you. My dad will be pleased, he won't have to vote Tory in Woking.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Someone mentioned Bob Crow on the previous thread as being a suitable negotiator with the EU.
Well as a strong opponent of the EU he would certainly have put his heart into it!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LTMO0-YGI40 -
Kipper standing in Leicester West. Good for Liz Kendall.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Why don't they just put it on Betfair so we can all have a share? The many, not the few etc etcTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Scottish locals turnout up 7.3% compared to 2012.Alistair said:
Low Turnout means serious SCon gainsPulpstar said:
Shit I am on 63+% turnout lolMikeL said:TV news ratings are very weak at the moment - of course they fall as we move into summer but even so they may well suggest little interest in the campaign.
eg Last night:
18:00: BBC News at Six - 3.93m (31.5%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 3.31m (21.0%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.55m (18.4%)
22:00: ITV News at Ten - 1.95m (12.4%)
Usually BBC 6pm is well over 5m and BBC 10pm is well over 4m.
If the public is ignoring the campaign it makes it less likely that people will change their voting intention.
Scotland bucking the trend since 20140 -
Have discovered from fascinating SOPN data that Ukip have graciously decided to help my local Conservative candidate by standing down in his favour, allowing him to survive the onslaught of the (fatally divided) forces of the Progressive Alliance™!TheScreamingEagles said:
Hanging on by the skin of his teeth, with a pathetic majority of just 19,080 votes, I am sure that Sir Oliver will be relieved to have gained this welcome measure of assistance.0 -
"How would you define the progressive alliance?" A group of people determined to make history happen even faster than commonly anticipated.The_Apocalypse said:FPT:
Anti-austerity is very much of a 'now' issue (and tbf will be an issue for the forseeable future), whereas the idea of a progressive alliance goes back some way before 2008 crash - there was a period prior to the coalition and especially during the Charles Kennedy years, during which Labour supporters saw the LDs as their allies.kle4 said:
How would you define the progressive alliance as an idea, if I might ask? As I am still struggling with it, you see, given the inclusion of quite extreme parties to potentially defeat moderates, just moderates on the centre-right. Is the idea mostly about social progessiveness, anti-austerity?The_Apocalypse said:The problem for the progressive alliance is the following:
- All of these progressive parties, with the exception of the SNP have awful leadership
- These parties have no idea what their purpose is in a post-2008, post-coalition world with the exception of the SNP and to a degree the LDs (pro EU/anti-Brexit party)
The progressive alliance was thing and actually worked pre-2010, when at least one of the parties (generally both) had electable leaders, especially in the mid 90s - mid 2000s.
I'd say the progressive alliance is in the main centres around a common belief in social democracy/liberalism etc. It should avoid including the extreme parties - the most left wing they should go is the Greens really. Social democracy/liberalism is generally the common thread between all of these centre-left parties - Labour, SNP, LDs, Greens etc.0 -
And no Green. Also good for Liz.foxinsoxuk said:
Kipper standing in Leicester West. Good for Liz Kendall.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Average turnout could be the killer for Labour then!Pulpstar said:
I've got the Tory ramper turnout cheatsheet handy:Alistair said:
Low Turnout means serious SCon gainsPulpstar said:
Shit I am on 63+% turnout lolMikeL said:TV news ratings are very weak at the moment - of course they fall as we move into summer but even so they may well suggest little interest in the campaign.
eg Last night:
18:00: BBC News at Six - 3.93m (31.5%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 3.31m (21.0%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.55m (18.4%)
22:00: ITV News at Ten - 1.95m (12.4%)
Usually BBC 6pm is well over 5m and BBC 10pm is well over 4m.
If the public is ignoring the campaign it makes it less likely that people will change their voting intention.
Low turnout = Labour voters have stayed at home.
High turnout = Brexiteers have come out for the big one for Theresa May.0 -
Mel Gould is standing for Greens, and there is an independent too.Disraeli said:
And no Green. Also good for Liz.foxinsoxuk said:
Kipper standing in Leicester West. Good for Liz Kendall.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Meanwhile, in Westmorland & Lonsdale, the full list of contenders is confirmed as Airey (Con,) Aldridge (Lab,) Farron (Lib Dem,) and Fishfinger (Ind.)0
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Klaxon on standby.Alistair said:
Low Turnout means serious SCon gainsPulpstar said:
Shit I am on 63+% turnout lolMikeL said:TV news ratings are very weak at the moment - of course they fall as we move into summer but even so they may well suggest little interest in the campaign.
eg Last night:
18:00: BBC News at Six - 3.93m (31.5%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 3.31m (21.0%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.55m (18.4%)
22:00: ITV News at Ten - 1.95m (12.4%)
Usually BBC 6pm is well over 5m and BBC 10pm is well over 4m.
If the public is ignoring the campaign it makes it less likely that people will change their voting intention.0 -
0
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Ah Thanks! I checked this website and missed the green because of the font colour and the fact that there was no picture available. http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/general-election-2017-who-are-the-candidates-in-leicester-west/story-30326578-detail/story.htmlfoxinsoxuk said:
Mel Gould is standing for Greens, and there is an independent too.Disraeli said:
And no Green. Also good for Liz.foxinsoxuk said:
Kipper standing in Leicester West. Good for Liz Kendall.TheScreamingEagles said:
That will teach me to speed read!0 -
As a Millwall supporter, he really didn't care who didn't like him.Disraeli said:Someone mentioned Bob Crow on the previous thread as being a suitable negotiator with the EU.
Well as a strong opponent of the EU he would certainly have put his heart into it!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LTMO0-YGI40 -
Not in my border bets I hope!calum said:0 -
According to the helpfully provided SOPN link, that Green lives at an address on Letchworth Road. I'm originally from there! Letchworth, that is, not Letchworth Road. Or Leicester. Would've thought Letchworth was far too little to merit having a road named after it in somewhere as far away as Leicester. You learn a new thing every day.foxinsoxuk said:
Mel Gould is standing for Greens, and there is an independent too.Disraeli said:
And no Green. Also good for Liz.foxinsoxuk said:
Kipper standing in Leicester West. Good for Liz Kendall.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I voted in one of those by-elections today. If the Conservatives win Woodville by one, I did it.0
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Heald??Black_Rook said:
Have discovered from fascinating SOPN data that Ukip have graciously decided to help my local Conservative candidate by standing down in his favour, allowing him to survive the onslaught of the (fatally divided) forces of the Progressive Alliance™!TheScreamingEagles said:
Hanging on by the skin of his teeth, with a pathetic majority of just 19,080 votes, I am sure that Sir Oliver will be relieved to have gained this welcome measure of assistance.0 -
O/T Man U are SO boring to watch, I've swapped to the Lyon game.0
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12 candidates facing off against Tezzy, although only 4/13 actually live in the constituency.0
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and Lyon score to make it 3-1 with 10 mins left... good move Mr. Scrap.0
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Hah. I wonderMikeL said:Con Maj now available at 1.07.
Only £100 but the large amount looking to back at 1.07 earlier has now all gone.
Good poll coming for Lab?
I predict that at some point during the campaign, there'll be a poll - even 2 polls in succession - that appears temporarily to turn the picture upside down. And there will be joy on the left and gloom on the right. Then normality will reassert itself.0 -
Game on in Lyon.Scrapheap_as_was said:O/T Man U are SO boring to watch, I've swapped to the Lyon game.
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The nearest road to where I was born was called Lebanon Road, and that was in Wandsworth SW18. Road naming conventions are not always the same.Black_Rook said:
According to the helpfully provided SOPN link, that Green lives at an address on Letchworth Road. I'm originally from there! Letchworth, that is, not Letchworth Road. Or Leicester. Would've thought Letchworth was far too little to merit having a road named after it in somewhere as far away as Leicester. You learn a new thing every day.foxinsoxuk said:
Mel Gould is standing for Greens, and there is an independent too.Disraeli said:
And no Green. Also good for Liz.foxinsoxuk said:
Kipper standing in Leicester West. Good for Liz Kendall.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
But like Holyrood, which had turnout up 5% on 2011, that turnout boost was mostly captured by the SCons.OUT said:
Scottish locals turnout up 7.3% compared to 2012.Alistair said:
Low Turnout means serious SCon gainsPulpstar said:
Shit I am on 63+% turnout lolMikeL said:TV news ratings are very weak at the moment - of course they fall as we move into summer but even so they may well suggest little interest in the campaign.
eg Last night:
18:00: BBC News at Six - 3.93m (31.5%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 3.31m (21.0%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.55m (18.4%)
22:00: ITV News at Ten - 1.95m (12.4%)
Usually BBC 6pm is well over 5m and BBC 10pm is well over 4m.
If the public is ignoring the campaign it makes it less likely that people will change their voting intention.
Scotland bucking the trend since 2014
In the last 2 elections SCons have been the most motivated voters and if the same happens again then SCon are poised for serious surge.
If Turnout is 64%-68% Then SCon are in for a good night. If it's over 70% then the SNP will see off SCon rises north of the Border seats I think.0 -
More news of the Amazing Vanishing Greens
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/8626874853562777610 -
My model has 100% UKIP to SCon switching baked in so it will interesting to see the seats.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Not in my border bets I hope!calum said:0 -
I hope that Mr Farron wins in W & L and that Mr Fishfinger donates his outfit to him as a memento.Black_Rook said:Meanwhile, in Westmorland & Lonsdale, the full list of contenders is confirmed as Airey (Con,) Aldridge (Lab,) Farron (Lib Dem,) and Fishfinger (Ind.)
Then we can have the headline:
"Farron gets the finger in his constituency"
After this Mrs May could sack her chancellor so we can get the headline:
"Hammond removed from the organs of the Conservative party"0 -
Ajax down to 100
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Ajax had a man sent off now too...0
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Swap back, Celta have scored.Scrapheap_as_was said:O/T Man U are SO boring to watch, I've swapped to the Lyon game.
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£1.5m last time, if the two figures are directly comparableTheScreamingEagles said:
http://www.unitetheunion.org/news/unites-executive-council-agrees-labour-donation/0 -
@JBeattieMirror: Very interesting @ComRes poll coming on Labour's manifesto pledges. See @DailyMirror website from 10pm #GE20170
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We all know what it'll say - they will all be popular.Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Very interesting @ComRes poll coming on Labour's manifesto pledges. See @DailyMirror website from 10pm #GE2017
But will poll include voting intention?
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A hyped poll is a boring poll (unless it's from Scotland).Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Very interesting @ComRes poll coming on Labour's manifesto pledges. See @DailyMirror website from 10pm #GE2017
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deleted due to duplication0
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Yep 71% turnout in 15 seems to bear that out.Alistair said:
But like Holyrood, which had turnout up 5% on 2011, that turnout boost was mostly captured by the SCons.OUT said:
Scottish locals turnout up 7.3% compared to 2012.Alistair said:
Low Turnout means serious SCon gainsPulpstar said:
Shit I am on 63+% turnout lolMikeL said:TV news ratings are very weak at the moment - of course they fall as we move into summer but even so they may well suggest little interest in the campaign.
eg Last night:
18:00: BBC News at Six - 3.93m (31.5%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 3.31m (21.0%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.55m (18.4%)
22:00: ITV News at Ten - 1.95m (12.4%)
Usually BBC 6pm is well over 5m and BBC 10pm is well over 4m.
If the public is ignoring the campaign it makes it less likely that people will change their voting intention.
Scotland bucking the trend since 2014
In the last 2 elections SCons have been the most motivated voters and if the same happens again then SCon are poised for serious surge.
If Turnout is 64%-68% Then SCon are in for a good night. If it's over 70% then the SNP will see off SCon rises north of the Border seats I think.0 -
No doubt! Don't mess up my hopes for a reasonable unionist revival UKIP, goddamn you.Alistair said:
My model has 100% UKIP to SCon switching baked in so it will interesting to see the seats.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Not in my border bets I hope!calum said:0 -
Builders often name streets eccentrically. Next to Filbert St in Leicester are Brazil St, and Walnut st, and a couple of other nuts.HurstLlama said:
The nearest road to where I was born was called Lebanon Road, and that was in Wandsworth SW18. Road naming conventions are not always the same.Black_Rook said:
According to the helpfully provided SOPN link, that Green lives at an address on Letchworth Road. I'm originally from there! Letchworth, that is, not Letchworth Road. Or Leicester. Would've thought Letchworth was far too little to merit having a road named after it in somewhere as far away as Leicester. You learn a new thing every day.foxinsoxuk said:
Mel Gould is standing for Greens, and there is an independent too.Disraeli said:
And no Green. Also good for Liz.foxinsoxuk said:
Kipper standing in Leicester West. Good for Liz Kendall.TheScreamingEagles said:
I used to live in a flat on Walnut st with a view of half the pitch at the old Filbert st...0 -
I guarantee you that it shows many of their pledges are quite popular. When we know many of Labour's plans can be regarded as popular already, but see the overreaction.Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Very interesting @ComRes poll coming on Labour's manifesto pledges. See @DailyMirror website from 10pm #GE2017
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FFS and 2 sent offtlg86 said:
Swap back, Celta have scored.Scrapheap_as_was said:O/T Man U are SO boring to watch, I've swapped to the Lyon game.
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In fairness they'd have taken 7 with eagerness at the start of the campaign.Black_Rook said:More news of the Amazing Vanishing Greens
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/8626874853562777610 -
Correct. Previously pensioned off with a knighthood by Cameron, now no.2 at the MoJ and rumoured to be one of the front-runners to replace Liz Truss, should May be looking at using a post-election reshuffle to make a few little adjustments. Slings and arrows and all that.philiph said:
Heald??Black_Rook said:
Have discovered from fascinating SOPN data that Ukip have graciously decided to help my local Conservative candidate by standing down in his favour, allowing him to survive the onslaught of the (fatally divided) forces of the Progressive Alliance™!TheScreamingEagles said:
Hanging on by the skin of his teeth, with a pathetic majority of just 19,080 votes, I am sure that Sir Oliver will be relieved to have gained this welcome measure of assistance.0 -
I'm getting ready to re-enact PB.com at around this time in 2005:Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Very interesting @ComRes poll coming on Labour's manifesto pledges. See @DailyMirror website from 10pm #GE2017
Wibbly wobbly Tory bottoms!
Cameron. Pledge a referendum on EU membership. NOW!
Osborne has to go.
That Michael Crick really is a...0 -
Who doesn't like sweeties....lots of them...Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Very interesting @ComRes poll coming on Labour's manifesto pledges. See @DailyMirror website from 10pm #GE2017
-1 -
Can we add in East Lothian for Labour to that lot, pretty please ?kle4 said:
In fairness they'd have taken 7 with eagerness at the start of the campaign.Black_Rook said:More news of the Amazing Vanishing Greens
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/8626874853562777610 -
It could have been named after this chap instead:Black_Rook said:
According to the helpfully provided SOPN link, that Green lives at an address on Letchworth Road. I'm originally from there! Letchworth, that is, not Letchworth Road. Or Leicester. Would've thought Letchworth was far too little to merit having a road named after it in somewhere as far away as Leicester. You learn a new thing every day.foxinsoxuk said:
Mel Gould is standing for Greens, and there is an independent too.Disraeli said:
And no Green. Also good for Liz.foxinsoxuk said:
Kipper standing in Leicester West. Good for Liz Kendall.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Pryor_Letchworth
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My MP, since he took over from Ian Stewart too many years ago. I've just moved out the the constituency this year.Black_Rook said:
Correct. Previously pensioned off with a knighthood by Cameron, now no.2 at the MoJ and rumoured to be one of the front-runners to replace Liz Truss, should May be looking at using a post-election reshuffle to make a few little adjustments. Slings and arrows and all that.philiph said:
Heald??Black_Rook said:
Have discovered from fascinating SOPN data that Ukip have graciously decided to help my local Conservative candidate by standing down in his favour, allowing him to survive the onslaught of the (fatally divided) forces of the Progressive Alliance™!TheScreamingEagles said:
Hanging on by the skin of his teeth, with a pathetic majority of just 19,080 votes, I am sure that Sir Oliver will be relieved to have gained this welcome measure of assistance.0 -
The more the merrier, SCON, SLD, SLAB. Though its rough knowing, apparently, lower turnout helps, as I never wish for lower turnout.Pulpstar said:
Can we add in East Lothian for Labour to that lot, pretty please ?kle4 said:
In fairness they'd have taken 7 with eagerness at the start of the campaign.Black_Rook said:More news of the Amazing Vanishing Greens
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/8626874853562777610 -
You sure that was 2005?Stark_Dawning said:
I'm getting ready to re-enact PB.com at around this time in 2005:Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Very interesting @ComRes poll coming on Labour's manifesto pledges. See @DailyMirror website from 10pm #GE2017
Wibbly wobbly Tory bottoms!
Cameron. Pledge a referendum on EU membership. NOW!
Osborne has to go.
That Michael Crick really is a...0 -
I don't wish to be a pedant, but actually if they win by one, the greater credit probably lies with the last person to vote Conservative. Although numerically the responsibility lies with every one of them.woody662 said:I voted in one of those by-elections today. If the Conservatives win Woodville by one, I did it.
(I'll get my coat).
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YouFrancisUrquhart said:
Who doesn't like sweeties....lots of them...Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Very interesting @ComRes poll coming on Labour's manifesto pledges. See @DailyMirror website from 10pm #GE2017
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Also they could still win by 0 votes, if a tiebreaker is used.RobinWiggs said:
I don't wish to be a pedant, but actually if they win by one, the greater credit probably lies with the last person to vote Conservative. Although numerically the responsibility lies with every one of them.woody662 said:I voted in one of those by-elections today. If the Conservatives win Woodville by one, I did it.
(I'll get my coat).
(grab my coat while you are at it)0 -
I was going to say Mrs May because of her diabetes....bigjohnowls said:
YouFrancisUrquhart said:
Who doesn't like sweeties....lots of them...Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Very interesting @ComRes poll coming on Labour's manifesto pledges. See @DailyMirror website from 10pm #GE2017
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I think they'd have been very pleased with 3 prior to those local elections. 7 would've been viewed as beyond their wildest dreams.kle4 said:
In fairness they'd have taken 7 with eagerness at the start of the campaign.Black_Rook said:More news of the Amazing Vanishing Greens
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/862687485356277761
I think that most of us can agree that there's potential for a number of Conservative gains in Scotland, but I haven't sat down and thought about their likely extent in the same way as I've spent time looking at Ukip to Con swing effects, or thinking about the Liberal Democrats. My own guesstimate at the outcome of the election as a whole, made on May 1st, has the SNP on 48 seats - which would imply a Tory result in Scotland of somewhere around... 7 seats. We shall see.0 -
They could have paid me £30k and I'd have told them that.....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
So ManU get to the Europa league final...but will Ajax take them to the cleaners!
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***** BETTING POST *****
Is THE value bet of the 2017 GE the prospect of the Tories winning Brighton Pavilion from the Greens, for which those nice folk at BetFred, Laddies & Corals are offering very tasty odds of 7/1?
At first glance this seems most unlikely, particularly by reference to the GE result in 2015, when the Tory came home in a very poor 3rd place with 12.5k votes, that's 2.5k votes behind Labour and a socking great 10.4k votes behind the Greens.
So what's changed? Well first and foremost of course is the fact that the Tories' national share of the vote has increased sharply since 2015, from 36.8% of the UK vote then to around 45% currently, whilst the Greens' share has fallen to 3% or less of the UK share.
Baxter is currently showing the Tories as having a surprisingly high 56% chance of winning this seat, compared with the Greens with a 24% chance and Labour bringing up the rear on just 19%. Putting that another way, the Tories are considered more than twice as likely as the Greens to win this seat and three times more likely than Labour.
Nothing, absolutely nothing would give me greater delight in the early hours of 9th June than to see Caroline Lucas chucked out at Brighton Pavilion. My level of joy and delight would exceed even that of witnessing St.Vince failing in his attempt to recapture Twickenham.
The sheer received wisdom that the Greens essentially "own" this seat has dissuaded me from opposing them to any significant monetary extent and I've therefore limited myself to investing a modest tenner on the Blue Team.
As ever, DYOR.
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Interesting from Macron's candidates I see
All [10 of 428]of the outgoing MPs chosen to run come from the Socialist Party of departing President François Hollande.
Mr Ferrand confirmed that Mr Macron's ex-cabinet colleague Manuel Valls - the former prime minister who has now burned his boats with his Socialists - had not been selected.
He said that he did "not meet the criteria" because he had already served three parliamentary terms.
But the party will not be running a candidate against him in his constituency in Essonne, south of Paris.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-398812660 -
Labour have never had a problem with putting out popular policies. The issue is with selling them as deliverable and affordable.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
You what...I wasn't aware the Tories had even starting running a campaign yet.
Asked which party is running the best election campaign 42% said the Tories, 20% Labour, 5% Lib Dems and 2% UKIP.
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The big question (and potential for Labour to surprise on the upside) is whether people end up treating this like a byelection.TheScreamingEagles said:
If they think May is guaranteed to stay in office regardless, then they may feel safe voting Labour in order to "send a message" that they want some of the things they're talking about, even if they don't want them to provide the PM.0 -
People like the ideas, but don't really believe they would work or could be enacted. It would take Attlee being cloned and somehow getting past Momentum to be Labour leader again to get people to believe in mass state intervention.kle4 said:
I guarantee you that it shows many of their pledges are quite popular. When we know many of Labour's plans can be regarded as popular already, but see the overreaction.Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Very interesting @ComRes poll coming on Labour's manifesto pledges. See @DailyMirror website from 10pm #GE2017
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I don't like how people seem to be helping out or advocating helping because its nice Caroline Lucas, with no thought about why then should you fight hard when she stands down, the Greens will make the case they have the best shot next time too. Might as well go for it big now, if she holds on that's great, if she loses its one seat among 650, and maybe the Greens get written out of the chances next time.peter_from_putney said:
The sheer received wisdom that the Greens essentially "own" this seat has dissuaded me from opposing them to any significant monetary extent and I've therefore limited myself to investing a modest tenner on the Blue Team.
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its still only a 1/3 of the unions Political Fund. Most PBers will be aware unions con only give to political party's and/or spend on political companies themselves, money that has been given by members directly in to a Political Fund. there are 14 Trade Unions that have political funds. 14 unions are have politicale funds and are affiliated to the Labout Party, according to there latest reports, mostly form April 2016. the unions had the following amounts in their funds:TheScreamingEagles said:
Unite 14,132,000
Unison 9,964,000
GMB 848,000
USDAW 568,000
CWU 1,184,895
Community 52,000
FBU 680,791
UCAT -54,000
ASLEF 5,400
TSSA 6,155
Musitans Union 7,931
BFAW 6,660
BECTU 37,611
NUM 60,314
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One other point, like budget reactions, opinions often shift when people start to hear the detail, some potential problems (in Labour's sweetie shop manifesto, it is more what isn't a problem) and have a bit of a think.0
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It is Remania central though, hence the odds presumably.peter_from_putney said:
***** BETTING POST *****
Is THE value bet of the 2017 GE the prospect of the Tories winning Brighton Pavilion from the Greens, for which those nice folk at BetFred, Laddies & Corals are offering very tasty odds of 7/1?
At first glance this seems most unlikely, particularly by reference to the GE result in 2015, when the Tory came home in a very poor 3rd place with 12.5k votes, that's 2.5k votes behind Labour and a socking great 10.4k votes behind the Greens.
So what's changed? Well first and foremost of course is the fact that the Tories' national share of the vote has increased sharply since 2015, from 36.8% of the UK vote then to around 45% currently, whilst the Greens' share has fallen to 3% or less of the UK share.
Baxter is currently showing the Tories as having a surprisingly high 56% chance of winning this seat, compared with the Greens with a 24% chance and Labour bringing up the rear on just 19%. Putting that another way, the Tories are considered more than twice as likely as the Greens to win this seat and three times more likely than Labour.
Nothing, absolutely nothing would give me greater delight in the early hours of 9th June than to see Caroline Lucas chucked out at Brighton Pavilion. My level of joy and delight would exceed even that of witnessing St.Vince failing in his attempt to recapture Twickenham.
The sheer received wisdom that the Greens essentially "own" this seat has dissuaded me from opposing them to any significant monetary extent and I've therefore limited myself to investing a modest tenner on the Blue Team.
As ever, DYOR.0 -
Well I don't know if it would take quite as much as that, but the general point that people will probably say they like it but may not trust Corbyn to do it is, I have no doubt, sound.HaroldO said:
People like the ideas, but don't really believe they would work or could be enacted. It would take Attlee being cloned and somehow getting past Momentum to be Labour leader again to get people to believe in mass state intervention.kle4 said:
I guarantee you that it shows many of their pledges are quite popular. When we know many of Labour's plans can be regarded as popular already, but see the overreaction.Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Very interesting @ComRes poll coming on Labour's manifesto pledges. See @DailyMirror website from 10pm #GE2017
Edit - Knew it.
I sense a New Thread incoming.0 -
Mirror Poll.
"Asked which party is running the best election campaign 42% said the Tories, 20% Labour, 5% Lib Dems and 2% UKIP."
Wow! The Tories are hardly even running a campaign.
EDIT: Snap!0 -
Oi stop nicking my gags....Some bloody economic quoted in the Mail has nicked my Magic Money Forest.Disraeli said:Mirror Poll.
"Asked which party is running the best election campaign 42% said the Tories, 20% Labour, 5% Lib Dems and 2% UKIP."
Wow! The Tories are hardly even running a campaign.0 -
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The Guardian were accusing Corbyn of virtue signalling earlier. The Guardian.Disraeli said:Mirror Poll.
"Asked which party is running the best election campaign 42% said the Tories, 20% Labour, 5% Lib Dems and 2% UKIP."
Wow! The Tories are hardly even running a campaign.
EDIT: Snap!0 -
I presume a lot of people treat the question as 'who do you like?' more than anything else.FrancisUrquhart said:You what...I wasn't aware the Tories had even starting running a campaign yet.
Asked which party is running the best election campaign 42% said the Tories, 20% Labour, 5% Lib Dems and 2% UKIP.0 -
The Mirror poll tonight confirms that Corbyn is the problem and always was.
His prevarification and incoherrance over immigration, Brexit and defence will show up on polling day, especially in the North
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Yeah considering how low key the Tory campaign is to come top with a large lead more or less implies that the Labour campaign is a net negative for the Labour Party.MaxPB said:
The virtue of standing still whilst everyone else goes backwards I guess.Disraeli said:Mirror Poll.
"Asked which party is running the best election campaign 42% said the Tories, 20% Labour, 5% Lib Dems and 2% UKIP."
Wow! The Tories are hardly even running a campaign.0 -
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
By 78% to 12% ComRes/Mirror poll finds voters support keeping ban on fox-hunting. TMay wants to lift the ban.0
