politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the election draws closer LAB leader Corbyn is seeing a boo

The donkeys are mobilising.

@TomMcTague: Some Lab MPs at today's ClauseV meeting so furious with JC they were prepared to call on him to go. Have been persuaded not to by colleagues

TheScreamingEagles said:

@TomMcTague: Some Lab MPs at today's ClauseV meeting so furious with JC they were prepared to call on him to go. Have been persuaded not to by colleagues

Labour MPs in missing spine shock!

BoE revises growth to 1.9%

TheScreamingEagles said:

This ain't over, coupled with the above, is Mrs May the new Devon Loch?

https://twitter.com/BetfairExchange/status/862624388750987265

The price is wrong. At least 3% wrong

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias

Well, he's not been terrible so far, on a sliding scale down to Abbot admittedly, and a lot of people just don't want a Tory PM no matter the opposition.

As you say, his leadership score is still terrible, as is the Labour overall score should the Tory one be accurate, but relatively Lab are picking up.

And I blame the LDs for that personally.

TheScreamingEagles said:

@TomMcTague: Some Lab MPs at today's ClauseV meeting so furious with JC they were prepared to call on him to go. Have been persuaded not to by colleagues

Bullcrap. They weren't going to do anything, then whinged about it off the record. Again.

The many vs the few can be seen in different contexts:

For the many in my Twitter/Facebook groupings, not the few who aren't?

For the many who want to come here, not the few who were born here?

Are the manifestos going to be costed by independent authorities?

(Edit: I mean, Corbyn's people surely need an accountant (at least) to check their numbers, no?)

Prodicus said:

Are the manifestos going to be costed by independent authorities?

I doubt any independent authority could finish the Labour Manifesto without dying from laughter...

williamglenn said:

Blue_rog said:

BoE revises growth to 1.9%

And warned they may need to raise rates.

Maybe because they shouldn't have cut them so far in the first place!

Carwyn Jones and Welsh Labour now seem to be disowning him completely.... already under instructions not to utter his nane and now saying manifesto is nothing to do with Wales

I predict a complete breakaway of Welsh Labour shortly...

Ed Miliband's ratings crept up close to the event. What we're seeing is a rationalisation from Labour voters that Jez will make a good PM.

If you've bet on Labour sub 20% then you've got a losing bet I'm afraid.

It was reasonable to suggest that the UK could keep access to the Single Market, even though we stopped being members of it. The EU27 have since made very clear that the SM and free movement are indivisible and implied we cannot have full access to the SM because that would give us an advantage that we no longer deserve after departure. Hence, it is not Dan Hannan who has changed his position, it is the EU27 who have clarified theirs. I'm still hopeful that, so long as we can keep J-CJ locked in a cupboard, the grown ups can negotiate a FTA that gives us access to most of the SM.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting. Might get us membership of the single market and custom unions.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024

Vote Labour: Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.

It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?

chestnut said:

williamglenn said:

Blue_rog said:

BoE revises growth to 1.9%

And warned they may need to raise rates.

Let's hope so.

Although with house prices already falling and Brexit economic pain around the corner, May could have a crash on her hands. The next election might see the return of those repossession posters.

TheScreamingEagles said:

@TomMcTague: Some Lab MPs at today's ClauseV meeting so furious with JC they were prepared to call on him to go. Have been persuaded not to by colleagues

Ooooh.. they were pushed so far they almost said something out loud.

Brave. Very brave.

BannedInParis said:

I think this is broadly comparable to Ed in the same timeframe in 2015

April 21-22 40 26
April 07-08 40 24
March 24-25 39 21
March 10-11 39 21
February 24-25 38 19
February 10-11 36 18
January 27-28 39 20
January 13-14 37 19

Month - Date - DC - Ed

So add 6 on to get Labour's score ?

27% feels about right.

Baskerville said:

It was reasonable to suggest that the UK could keep access to the Single Market, even though we stopped being members of it. The EU27 have since made very clear that the SM and free movement are indivisible and implied we cannot have full access to the SM because that would give us an advantage that we no longer deserve after departure. Hence, it is not Dan Hannan who has changed his position, it is the EU27 who have clarified theirs. I'm still hopeful that, so long as we can keep J-CJ locked in a cupboard, the grown ups can negotiate an FTA that gives us access to most of the SM.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting. Might get us membership of the single market and custom unions.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024

Vote Labour: Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.

It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?

Errrr, have you forgot this

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/evan-davis-newsnight-bbc-daniel-hannan-mep-eu-referendum-brexit_uk_576e2967e4b08d2c56393241

If Corbyn's PM ratings are ticking up, it's time for the ambush:
Note to Corbyn and team: this isn't going away, and it's going to be harder get nastier every day from now until June 8th.
https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/862587849912311808
https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/862570305717493760

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/Alain_Tolhurst/status/862628163196780544

The expression on the face of the passenger is a hoot. Jeremy really doesn’t like the media.

Corbyn has been slammed so heavily in the past that people are shocked when they actually hear him speak and he is, if not good, then at least coherent and, if not likeable, then at least not detestable. He also benefits a little from the fact that all Labour MPs know he's leader for one more month, and there has to be a ceasefire however much they punch the wall when they get home from canvassing.

But that's all dead cat bounce to a degree - he was so low it was hard to go lower. I am very, very surprised by some polls putting him on a par with Miliband in 2015 in terms of vote share, even with the UKIP collapse and lacklustre campaigns from all other parties. It just doesn't square with my door knocking, albeit in a seat Labour isn't contesting seriously.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Baskerville said:

It was reasonable to suggest that the UK could keep access to the Single Market, even though we stopped being members of it. The EU27 have since made very clear that the SM and free movement are indivisible and implied we cannot have full access to the SM because that would give us an advantage that we no longer deserve after departure. Hence, it is not Dan Hannan who has changed his position, it is the EU27 who have clarified theirs. I'm still hopeful that, so long as we can keep J-CJ locked in a cupboard, the grown ups can negotiate an FTA that gives us access to most of the SM.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting. Might get us membership of the single market and custom unions.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024

Vote Labour: Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.

It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?

Errrr, have you forgot this

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/evan-davis-newsnight-bbc-daniel-hannan-mep-eu-referendum-brexit_uk_576e2967e4b08d2c56393241

I think you might want to look a little deeper into Hannan's expressed views. He has written a couple of books a various other stuff, might help you out a bit rather than a quick Google.

No matter, if you think Corbyn has the right answer on the EU question then perhaps you should vote for him, and accept all the other stuff that would come with him winning.

Prodicus said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/Alain_Tolhurst/status/862628163196780544

Just not Jezza's day.

it's worse. he appears to have tom cruise as his chauffeur.

kle4 said:

BannedInParis said:

I think this is broadly comparable to Ed in the same timeframe in 2015

April 21-22 40 26
April 07-08 40 24
March 24-25 39 21
March 10-11 39 21
February 24-25 38 19
February 10-11 36 18
January 27-28 39 20
January 13-14 37 19

Month - Date - DC - Ed

Corbyn would be very happy to get an Ed M type result. And what a waste of opportunity from TMay that would be!

Two differences

*I think the difference would be CON on 36 and CON on 46ish. Big difference.

*I'm commenting on the increase. In absolute terms, Corbyn is about 5 % behind Ed throughout.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting. Might get us membership of the single market and custom unions.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024

Vote Labour: Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.

It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?

Repeat after me. Single market membership and single market access are not the same thing. And then goes onto say they essentially are the same thing. This was the official Leave position. Confused? People weren't as confused as they should have been. Hence the Leave result.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting. Might get us membership of the single market and custom unions.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024

Vote Labour: Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.

It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?

No.

Must be a different Dan Hannan who said

'Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market'

Do you have a source for that?

Hannan has been pretty consistent in that he wanted us to join EFTA, which allows free movement of workers. He has always been at odds with the "official" Leave campaign on that, which has caused him some embarrassment, but I've never seen him say we should stay in the EEA.

It's in the video in this article

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/open-britain-video-single-market-nigel-farage-anna-soubry_uk_582ce0a0e4b09025ba310fce

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting. Might get us membership of the single market and custom unions.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024

Vote Labour: Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.

It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?

No.

Must be a different Dan Hannan who said

'Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market'

Do you have a source for that?

Hannan has been pretty consistent in that he wanted us to join EFTA, which allows free movement of workers. He has always been at odds with the "official" Leave campaign on that, which has caused him some embarrassment, but I've never seen him say we should stay in the EEA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY&feature=youtu.be&t=11

AlsoIndigo said:

Prodicus said:

FPT

Assuming we haven't left the EU by the time of the entry into Number 10 of JCICIPM, will EU law allow the execution of the fullness of his glorious manifesto?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Railway_Package

Thank you.

kle4 said:

BannedInParis said:

kle4 said:

BannedInParis said:

I think this is broadly comparable to Ed in the same timeframe in 2015

April 21-22 40 26
April 07-08 40 24
March 24-25 39 21
March 10-11 39 21
February 24-25 38 19
February 10-11 36 18
January 27-28 39 20
January 13-14 37 19

Month - Date - DC - Ed

Corbyn would be very happy to get an Ed M type result. And what a waste of opportunity from TMay that would be!

Two differences

*I think the difference would be CON on 36 and CON on 46ish. Big difference.

*I'm commenting on the increase. In absolute terms, Corbyn is about 5 % behind Ed throughout.

I didn't say I thought he'd achieve an Ed M result.

for a number of reasons, I think his vote share won't be far off.

this will not translate into seats.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@TomMcTague: Some Lab MPs at today's ClauseV meeting so furious with JC they were prepared to call on him to go. Have been persuaded not to by colleagues

Ooooh.. they were pushed so far they almost said something out loud.

Brave. Very brave.

Surely it's tonight, after nominations have closed, that the sensibles formally break away and announce SDP2?

Best PM Rating - average

2016
May: 49
Corbyn: 18

2017 to date:
May: 49
Corbyn: 16

'Strong & Stable' springs, unbidden, to mind.....

HurstLlama said:

SimonStClare said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/Alain_Tolhurst/status/862628163196780544

The expression on the face of the passenger is a hoot. Jeremy really doesn’t like the media.

Not wholly sure but it doesn't look like Corbyn is wearing his seatbelt.

Very good spot.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting. Might get us membership of the single market and custom unions.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024

Vote Labour: Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.

It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?

No.

Must be a different Dan Hannan who said

'Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market'

Do you have a source for that?

Hannan has been pretty consistent in that he wanted us to join EFTA, which allows free movement of workers. He has always been at odds with the "official" Leave campaign on that, which has caused him some embarrassment, but I've never seen him say we should stay in the EEA.

It's in the video in this article

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/open-britain-video-single-market-nigel-farage-anna-soubry_uk_582ce0a0e4b09025ba310fce

I can't watch videos in my present position but Hannan has never advocated remaining inside the single market subject to ECJ rules.

The guy has been talking about EFTA for over 20 years and doesn't have a problem with free movement.

If you want to attack him for inconsistency attack him for that, whilst being on the Board of Vote Leave.

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Baskerville said:

It was reasonable to suggest that the UK could keep access to the Single Market, even though we stopped being members of it. The EU27 have since made very clear that the SM and free movement are indivisible and implied we cannot have full access to the SM because that would give us an advantage that we no longer deserve after departure. Hence, it is not Dan Hannan who has changed his position, it is the EU27 who have clarified theirs. I'm still hopeful that, so long as we can keep J-CJ locked in a cupboard, the grown ups can negotiate an FTA that gives us access to most of the SM.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting. Might get us membership of the single market and custom unions.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024

Vote Labour: Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.

It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?

Errrr, have you forgot this

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/evan-davis-newsnight-bbc-daniel-hannan-mep-eu-referendum-brexit_uk_576e2967e4b08d2c56393241

These days Hannan is just an embarrassment to Leave. His lofty preferences are now in tatters. Leave supporters should just be honest and admit he was their clueless dupe, put in place to mislead us.

Nope that's just the normal Remained bullshit we have come to expect from you. Hannan campaigned for exactly the same sort of Brexit as I did. One that maintained Single Market access including freedom of movement. It is still something thst is possible and it is a political decision by May not to go for that sort of Brexit. It is just the utter dishonesty of losers like you trying to rewrite history and pretend everyone was voting to leave because of immigration.

SandyRentool said:

Instead we got "Vote Labour, win a microwave".

microwave owl.

Fixed it for you.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

williamglenn said:

chestnut said:

williamglenn said:

Blue_rog said:

BoE revises growth to 1.9%

And warned they may need to raise rates.

Let's hope so.

Although with house prices already falling and Brexit economic pain around the corner, May could have a crash on her hands. The next election might see the return of those repossession posters.

I really hope it doesn't happen, and the economy post-referendum has pleasantly surprised me.

But I do have a terribly ominous feeling. There has been a lot of cheap credit to keep things going, inflation is clearly heading up to some degree and interest rates may need to respond, the uncertainty over Brexit negotiations cannot help inward investment. Meanwhile, the deficit is stubbornly high and there's little or nothing spare to play with.

I hope I'm wrong. I often have been in the past. But I do worry we're much closer to a cliff edge than is commonly perceived.

Which is why we are having an election!

"Comrades, this is your Leader. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our Party's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party. For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Attlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Glorious 2017 Manifesto. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!

"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Manchester, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

"A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"

https://twitter.com/skynewseditor/status/862630770757840898

Prodicus said:

microwave owl.

Fixed it for you.

Labour's leaked manifesto allegedly contains £425bn of spending.

And STILL no owls

rottenborough said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

williamglenn said:

chestnut said:

williamglenn said:

Blue_rog said:

BoE revises growth to 1.9%

And warned they may need to raise rates.

Let's hope so.

Although with house prices already falling and Brexit economic pain around the corner, May could have a crash on her hands. The next election might see the return of those repossession posters.

I really hope it doesn't happen, and the economy post-referendum has pleasantly surprised me.

But I do have a terribly ominous feeling. There has been a lot of cheap credit to keep things going, inflation is clearly heading up to some degree and interest rates may need to respond, the uncertainty over Brexit negotiations cannot help inward investment. Meanwhile, the deficit is stubbornly high and there's little or nothing spare to play with.

I hope I'm wrong. I often have been in the past. But I do worry we're much closer to a cliff edge than is commonly perceived.

Which is why we are having an election!

Tru dat.

I said it the other day, but it might yet be a "good one to lose" if it's less of an horrific blow out than many in Labour fear, but clear enough that Corbyn has to go.

"Good one to lose" is in inverted commas because there are no good ones to lose, only less bad ones.

Let us also not forget,

Leader doing well/badly - net well:

2017 to date:
May: +21
Corbyn: -55

2016
May: +24
Corbyn: -35

chestnut said:

BannedInParis said:

kle4 said:

BannedInParis said:

I think this is broadly comparable to Ed in the same timeframe in 2015

April 21-22 40 26
April 07-08 40 24
March 24-25 39 21
March 10-11 39 21
February 24-25 38 19
February 10-11 36 18
January 27-28 39 20
January 13-14 37 19

Month - Date - DC - Ed

Corbyn would be very happy to get an Ed M type result. And what a waste of opportunity from TMay that would be!

Two differences

*I think the difference would be CON on 36 and CON on 46ish. Big difference.

*I'm commenting on the increase. In absolute terms, Corbyn is about 5 % behind Ed throughout.

Today's YG: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fko52um47n/TimesResults_170510_VI_Trackers_W.pdf

January when he was on 16: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bfe1jtcki8/TimesResults_170124_VI_Trackers_W.pdf

The drift in the subsets is some firming up of the 2015 Lab vote (consistent with Wales/London polls) and some shift from Lib Dems to Lab.

He's made no progress with 2015 Tory/Kipper voters.

Yes, that's exactly the impression I've been reporting from the doorstep - some firming, a bit of LD tactical voting (and without being rude, some disillusion with the perceived LD campaign - all about ultra-Remain plus gay sex sin debate, if there's a general message voters arn't seeing it), very little impact on Tories/UKIP yet. But Corbyn's not going down too badly with potential supporters, and in some cases very well - people can see he's about something, while May is seen as safe but empty.

Labour has narrowed the gap in the polls. I'm concerned that Corbyn may be able to remain leader if that turns out to be accurate. Even if the PLP are sensible and (assuming they can't oust him) split, it could see a decade of complacent Conservative government coupled with no real opposition.

logical_song said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting. Might get us membership of the single market and custom unions.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024

Vote Labour: Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.

It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?

No.

Must be a different Dan Hannan who said

'Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market'

Do you have a source for that?

Hannan has been pretty consistent in that he wanted us to join EFTA, which allows free movement of workers. He has always been at odds with the "official" Leave campaign on that, which has caused him some embarrassment, but I've never seen him say we should stay in the EEA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY&feature=youtu.be&t=11

Andrew Niel already debunked that video.

A very deceptive video by REMAIN, but then again that was their whole campaign.

https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/862636173981777920

Don't know about anybody else, but I voted LEAVE to leave the EU, to reverse events in 1973.

HurstLlama said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jamesmanning/status/862629202679431168

The left hand photo seems to confirm my suspicions. Corbyn wasn't wearing a seatbelt. So what? Well, it is the law of the land that one must. If he feels himself above the law, that says something about the chap, something that isn't very good for someone who wants to tell the rest of us how to behave.

I severely doubt he thinks he is above the law. More likely he is just a bit careless with details - didn't he mess up his tax returns two years on the trot or something?

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/862604689510150144

Utterly inept - are they really fighting on a platform of tackling the scourge of camp tokers?

Betfair say they have taken £2000 this morning on bets on Labour most seats.

That's £2K less leaflet money for Momentum come the next leadership election this summer. Keep it up kids!