I think this is broadly comparable to Ed in the same timeframe in 2015
April 21-22 40 26 April 07-08 40 24 March 24-25 39 21 March 10-11 39 21 February 24-25 38 19 February 10-11 36 18 January 27-28 39 20 January 13-14 37 19
Month - Date - DC - Ed
Corbyn would be very happy to get an Ed M type result. And what a waste of opportunity from TMay that would be!
Two differences
*I think the difference would be CON on 36 and CON on 46ish. Big difference.
*I'm commenting on the increase. In absolute terms, Corbyn is about 5 % behind Ed throughout.
The drift in the subsets is some firming up of the 2015 Lab vote (consistent with Wales/London polls) and some shift from Lib Dems to Lab.
He's made no progress with 2015 Tory/Kipper voters.
Yes, that's exactly the impression I've been reporting from the doorstep - some firming, a bit of LD tactical voting (and without being rude, some disillusion with the perceived LD campaign - all about ultra-Remain plus gay sex sin debate, if there's a general message voters arn't seeing it), very little impact on Tories/UKIP yet. But Corbyn's not going down too badly with potential supporters, and in some cases very well - people can see he's about something, while May is seen as safe but empty.
Does that mean that May's horse has bolted (out of the stable)?
Labour has narrowed the gap in the polls. I'm concerned that Corbyn may be able to remain leader if that turns out to be accurate. Even if the PLP are sensible and (assuming they can't oust him) split, it could see a decade of complacent Conservative government coupled with no real opposition.
One of the left's biggest problems is that they are so splintered and fractured with five or six parties competing for 45/48% of the vote.
If Corbyn wipes out the Greens, Respect and the Lib Dems and makes progress against the Welsh and Scot Nats he essentially improves the left's long term UK position.
The left hand photo seems to confirm my suspicions. Corbyn wasn't wearing a seatbelt. So what? Well, it is the law of the land that one must. If he feels himself above the law, that says something about the chap, something that isn't very good for someone who wants to tell the rest of us how to behave.
Actually he might not be breaking the law.
I think he's in an official police car with detectives. For security protocols if someone tried to shoot him, a seat belt might be a hindrance.
So, like taxi drivers, wearing a seat belt might not be mandatory under the law.
“You are sitting in your office in Taipei or Delaware contemplating your investments in the UK. You are already a bit worried about Britain leaving the EU and the Single Market, and all this talk of tariffs barriers and more forms to fill in. Then, on top of that, you are suddenly confronted with a government intent on raising your taxes, limiting the pay of your senior staff, increasing your wage costs, strengthening trade unions and confiscating your property. If you were already uminng and ahhing about whether to stay invested in Britain after 2019…”
The left hand photo seems to confirm my suspicions. Corbyn wasn't wearing a seatbelt. So what? Well, it is the law of the land that one must. If he feels himself above the law, that says something about the chap, something that isn't very good for someone who wants to tell the rest of us how to behave.
I severely doubt he thinks he is above the law. More likely he is just a bit careless with details - didn't he mess up his tax returns two years on the trot or something?
Ok, right. So if an ordinary member of the public gets pulled over by the Plod he should be able to say, "I am just a bit careless with the details" and get away with it, should he/she? Being careless with the details is just a euphemism for saying "I, being an important person, do not have to worry about these trivial details, they are for little people".
The left hand photo seems to confirm my suspicions. Corbyn wasn't wearing a seatbelt. So what? Well, it is the law of the land that one must. If he feels himself above the law, that says something about the chap, something that isn't very good for someone who wants to tell the rest of us how to behave.
Actually he might not be breaking the law.
I think he's in an official police car with detectives. For security protocols if someone tried to shoot him, a seat belt might be a hindrance.
So, like taxi drivers, wearing a seat belt might not be mandatory under the law.
a driver who is reversing, or supervising a learner driver who is reversing in a vehicle being used for police, fire and rescue services a passenger in a trade vehicle and you’re investigating a fault driving a goods vehicle on deliveries that is travelling no more than 50 metres between stops a licensed taxi driver who is ‘plying for hire’ or carrying passengers
Labour has narrowed the gap in the polls. I'm concerned that Corbyn may be able to remain leader if that turns out to be accurate. Even if the PLP are sensible and (assuming they can't oust him) split, it could see a decade of complacent Conservative government coupled with no real opposition.
Labour's support is inching up to 30%, but this is still worse than what Miliband managed. Factor in the polls overestimating Labour (which is what I think is happening) and bigger swings in certain areas, and Labour are still looking at a terrible result, well below 200 seats.
Press release just out from UKIP Sutton. They are not standing candidates in either Sutton&Cheam or Carshalton&Wallington. Bad news for the LDs there where in both Constituencies large UKIP vote to squeeze. Over 7000 in C&W. Brake is up against it now only defending a 1500 maj
It was reasonable to suggest that the UK could keep access to the Single Market, even though we stopped being members of it. The EU27 have since made very clear that the SM and free movement are indivisible and implied we cannot have full access to the SM because that would give us an advantage that we no longer deserve after departure. Hence, it is not Dan Hannan who has changed his position, it is the EU27 who have clarified theirs. I'm still hopeful that, so long as we can keep J-CJ locked in a cupboard, the grown ups can negotiate an FTA that gives us access to most of the SM.
These days Hannan is just an embarrassment to Leave. His lofty preferences are now in tatters. Leave supporters should just be honest and admit he was their clueless dupe, put in place to mislead us.
Nope that's just the normal Remained bullshit we have come to expect from you. Hannan campaigned for exactly the same sort of Brexit as I did. One that maintained Single Market access including freedom of movement. It is still something thst is possible and it is a political decision by May not to go for that sort of Brexit. It is just the utter dishonesty of losers like you trying to rewrite history and pretend everyone was voting to leave because of immigration.
So May and the Tories are likely to scupper your and Hannan's noble vision of Brexit? That's a shame, but perhaps you should have taken the time to find out what the political realities of Brexit would actually be like. Poor research on your part.
Nope. We were well aware of the political realities. But any Brexit was better than staying in and in the long run we will still move back to effective freedom of movement. Not least because those voting Remain plus those who wanted an EFTA type Brexit were and probably are in the majority.
Nice to see you have admitted your characterisation of Hannan was dishonest though.
Utterly inept - are they really fighting on a platform of tackling the scourge of camp tokers?
I don't see an issue here. Perfectly sensible public health stuff surely?
The messaging is dreadful. People shouldn't smoke, so we're going to spend money targeting ethnic minorities and the lgbt community, it's bizarre. Just commit to fighting it in all society, not single out groups for reprogramming.
It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?
No.
Must be a different Dan Hannan who said
'Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market'
Do you have a source for that?
Hannan has been pretty consistent in that he wanted us to join EFTA, which allows free movement of workers. He has always been at odds with the "official" Leave campaign on that, which has caused him some embarrassment, but I've never seen him say we should stay in the EEA.
Why are we still talking about staying in the single market? That ship sailed in the autumn, when Remainers were too busy Remoaning to push for the EFTA-type solution that many of them now claim to want.
Casino Royale asked 'Do you have a source for that?'
The left hand photo seems to confirm my suspicions. Corbyn wasn't wearing a seatbelt. So what? Well, it is the law of the land that one must. If he feels himself above the law, that says something about the chap, something that isn't very good for someone who wants to tell the rest of us how to behave.
Actually he might not be breaking the law.
I think he's in an official police car with detectives. For security protocols if someone tried to shoot him, a seat belt might be a hindrance.
So, like taxi drivers, wearing a seat belt might not be mandatory under the law.
a driver who is reversing, or supervising a learner driver who is reversing in a vehicle being used for police, fire and rescue services a passenger in a trade vehicle and you’re investigating a fault driving a goods vehicle on deliveries that is travelling no more than 50 metres between stops a licensed taxi driver who is ‘plying for hire’ or carrying passengers
Even if it was an official vehicle, which I very much doubt, taking a politician to a political meeting does not mean the vehicle is being used for "police, fire and rescue" purposes under the Act. Look at any police car and you will see the people in it wearing belts, unless they are actually fighting with a prisoner.
No excuses, Corbyn was not wearing a seat belt. He should have been.
The left hand photo seems to confirm my suspicions. Corbyn wasn't wearing a seatbelt. So what? Well, it is the law of the land that one must. If he feels himself above the law, that says something about the chap, something that isn't very good for someone who wants to tell the rest of us how to behave.
I severely doubt he thinks he is above the law. More likely he is just a bit careless with details - didn't he mess up his tax returns two years on the trot or something?
Ok, right. So if an ordinary member of the public gets pulled over by the Plod he should be able to say, "I am just a bit careless with the details" and get away with it, should he/she? .
I didn't say anything of the kind, I don't believe that, and I am baffled you would interpret it that way. But you were inventing a motivation for his behaviour with no proof, that is that he thinks he is above the law. Now, maybe that is true, although I have no evidence for it, and since you provided none I assume you do not either. Given that lack of proof, what's a more likely explanation for him not wearing a seatbelt?
Or to be more succinct:
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Labour has narrowed the gap in the polls. I'm concerned that Corbyn may be able to remain leader if that turns out to be accurate. Even if the PLP are sensible and (assuming they can't oust him) split, it could see a decade of complacent Conservative government coupled with no real opposition.
One of the left's biggest problems is that they are so splintered and fractured with five or six parties competing for 45/48% of the vote.
If Corbyn wipes out the Greens, Respect and the Lib Dems and makes progress against the Welsh and Scot Nats he essentially improves the left's long term UK position.
Do you really see the Labour Party winning seats from the LibDems?
Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are the two theoretical targets, but it's hard to see them falling IMHO.
The left hand photo seems to confirm my suspicions. Corbyn wasn't wearing a seatbelt. So what? Well, it is the law of the land that one must. If he feels himself above the law, that says something about the chap, something that isn't very good for someone who wants to tell the rest of us how to behave.
Actually he might not be breaking the law.
I think he's in an official police car with detectives. For security protocols if someone tried to shoot him, a seat belt might be a hindrance.
So, like taxi drivers, wearing a seat belt might not be mandatory under the law.
a driver who is reversing, or supervising a learner driver who is reversing in a vehicle being used for police, fire and rescue services a passenger in a trade vehicle and you’re investigating a fault driving a goods vehicle on deliveries that is travelling no more than 50 metres between stops a licensed taxi driver who is ‘plying for hire’ or carrying passengers
I remember it from a few years ago when I had full blown sciatica and I had to apply for the medical exemption, so I could lie down on the back seat of my father's vehicle, when he had to regularly take me to the Doctors/hospitals and other places.
The left hand photo seems to confirm my suspicions. Corbyn wasn't wearing a seatbelt. So what? Well, it is the law of the land that one must. If he feels himself above the law, that says something about the chap, something that isn't very good for someone who wants to tell the rest of us how to behave.
Actually he might not be breaking the law.
I think he's in an official police car with detectives. For security protocols if someone tried to shoot him, a seat belt might be a hindrance.
So, like taxi drivers, wearing a seat belt might not be mandatory under the law.
a driver who is reversing, or supervising a learner driver who is reversing in a vehicle being used for police, fire and rescue services a passenger in a trade vehicle and you’re investigating a fault driving a goods vehicle on deliveries that is travelling no more than 50 metres between stops a licensed taxi driver who is ‘plying for hire’ or carrying passengers
Even if it was an official vehicle, which I very much doubt, taking a politician to a political meeting does not mean the vehicle is being used for "police, fire and rescue" purposes under the Act. Look at any police car and you will see the people in it wearing belts, unless they are actually fighting with a prisoner.
No excuses, Corbyn was not wearing a seat belt. He should have been.
Even if he does not have to, he should of course. But seriously, you're making a monster our of him when making an idiot out of him is so much more reasonable.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
The left hand photo seems to confirm my suspicions. Corbyn wasn't wearing a seatbelt. So what? Well, it is the law of the land that one must. If he feels himself above the law, that says something about the chap, something that isn't very good for someone who wants to tell the rest of us how to behave.
Actually he might not be breaking the law.
I think he's in an official police car with detectives. For security protocols if someone tried to shoot him, a seat belt might be a hindrance.
So, like taxi drivers, wearing a seat belt might not be mandatory under the law.
a driver who is reversing, or supervising a learner driver who is reversing in a vehicle being used for police, fire and rescue services a passenger in a trade vehicle and you’re investigating a fault driving a goods vehicle on deliveries that is travelling no more than 50 metres between stops a licensed taxi driver who is ‘plying for hire’ or carrying passengers
Even if it was an official vehicle, which I very much doubt, taking a politician to a political meeting does not mean the vehicle is being used for "police, fire and rescue" purposes under the Act. Look at any police car and you will see the people in it wearing belts, unless they are actually fighting with a prisoner.
No excuses, Corbyn was not wearing a seat belt. He should have been.
I didn't think wearing a seat belt in the back of a car was mandatory! Shows how ofet I'm in the back seat.
Utterly inept - are they really fighting on a platform of tackling the scourge of camp tokers?
I don't see an issue here. Perfectly sensible public health stuff surely?
The messaging is dreadful. People shouldn't smoke, so we're going to spend money targeting ethnic minorities and the lgbt community, it's bizarre. Just commit to fighting it in all society, not single out groups for reprogramming.
Makes sense. You can target those groups, if indeed they have a higher prevalence of smoking, later, you don't need to spell out something that oddly specific in a manifesto.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
The left hand photo seems to confirm my suspicions. Corbyn wasn't wearing a seatbelt. So what? Well, it is the law of the land that one must. If he feels himself above the law, that says something about the chap, something that isn't very good for someone who wants to tell the rest of us how to behave.
I severely doubt he thinks he is above the law. More likely he is just a bit careless with details - didn't he mess up his tax returns two years on the trot or something?
Ok, right. So if an ordinary member of the public gets pulled over by the Plod he should be able to say, "I am just a bit careless with the details" and get away with it, should he/she? .
I didn't say anything of the kind, I don't believe that, and I am baffled you would interpret it that way. But you were inventing a motivation for his behaviour with no proof, that is that he thinks he is above the law. Now, maybe that is true, although I have no evidence for it, and since you provided none I assume you do not either. Given that lack of proof, what's a more likely explanation for him not wearing a seatbelt?
Or to be more succinct:
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Failure to wear a seatbelt, outside the statutory exceptions, is an offence. You have to do it, I have to do it, we all have to do it. Being in your words "Careless with the detail" so not bothering does in my view say a lot about the man.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
Damn, if that is right the LDs are doing almost as bad in Scotland as they are in Wales, and Scotland is where they hope to make quite a few gains. SNP is a bit high for my liking too. Oh well.
Press release just out from UKIP Sutton. They are not standing candidates in either Sutton&Cheam or Carshalton&Wallington. Bad news for the LDs there where in both Constituencies large UKIP vote to squeeze. Over 7000 in C&W. Brake is up against it now only defending a 1500 maj
I don't see how Brake survives, tbh. Leave voting constituency, big UKIP vote to squeeze, minimal Heathrow factor. He's personally popular, but I doubt that's enough.
I would have thought the LDs would be much more likely to gain Twickenham than to hold Carshalton. (Which is a shame because I like Tom Brake a lot more than I like Vince Cable.)
Labour has narrowed the gap in the polls. I'm concerned that Corbyn may be able to remain leader if that turns out to be accurate. Even if the PLP are sensible and (assuming they can't oust him) split, it could see a decade of complacent Conservative government coupled with no real opposition.
One of the left's biggest problems is that they are so splintered and fractured with five or six parties competing for 45/48% of the vote.
If Corbyn wipes out the Greens, Respect and the Lib Dems and makes progress against the Welsh and Scot Nats he essentially improves the left's long term UK position.
Do you really see the Labour Party winning seats from the LibDems?
Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are the two theoretical targets, but it's hard to see them falling IMHO.
Not really, but I think there comes a point for many people where they start to wonder how valuable their vote is if they are giving it to a party with 8% vote share and 8/9 MPs.
There is evidence in the polling to suggest that Lib Dem>Labour drift is happening.
The left hand photo seems to confirm my suspicions. Corbyn wasn't wearing a seatbelt. So what? Well, it is the law of the land that one must. If he feels himself above the law, that says something about the chap, something that isn't very good for someone who wants to tell the rest of us how to behave.
I severely doubt he thinks he is above the law. More likely he is just a bit careless with details - didn't he mess up his tax returns two years on the trot or something?
Ok, right. So if an ordinary member of the public gets pulled over by the Plod he should be able to say, "I am just a bit careless with the details" and get away with it, should he/she? .
I didn't say anything of the kind, I don't believe that, and I am baffled you would interpret it that way. But you were inventing a motivation for his behaviour with no proof, that is that he thinks he is above the law. Now, maybe that is true, although I have no evidence for it, and since you provided none I assume you do not either. Given that lack of proof, what's a more likely explanation for him not wearing a seatbelt?
Or to be more succinct:
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Failure to wear a seatbelt, outside the statutory exceptions, is an offence. You have to do it, I have to do it, we all have to do it. Being in your words "Careless with the detail" so not bothering does in my view say a lot about the man.
And I never said it didn't! His carelessness with many things is highly relevant. What I disputed was your assertion, without any supporting evidence and so very unlikely, that he thinks he is above the law. Thinking you are above the law is far more worrisome than being too careless to follow the law, even though the latter is not a frivilous matter either.
Utterly inept - are they really fighting on a platform of tackling the scourge of camp tokers?
I don't see an issue here. Perfectly sensible public health stuff surely?
The messaging is dreadful. People shouldn't smoke, so we're going to spend money targeting ethnic minorities and the lgbt community, it's bizarre. Just commit to fighting it in all society, not single out groups for reprogramming.
Makes sense. You can target those groups, if indeed they have a higher prevalence of smoking, later, you don't need to spell out something that oddly specific in a manifesto.
Quite. Aside from the tiny dynamic of BAME and LGBT smokers wanting state help to quit it's a statement that will irritate everyone else because of its specificness and what can be inferred from that (rightly or wtongly)
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
Damn, if that is right the LDs are doing almost as bad in Scotland as they are in Wales, and Scotland is where they hope to make quite a few gains. SNP is a bit high for my liking too. Oh well.
I think that's tosh, tbh.
Ahead of the Holyrood elections, people were using the subsamples to argue the LDs would win at most one constituency seat, (And some people didn't even think they'd get that.) Instead they gained two constituency seats and managed to poll 67.4% in Orkney and Shetland.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
Damn, if that is right the LDs are doing almost as bad in Scotland as they are in Wales, and Scotland is where they hope to make quite a few gains. SNP is a bit high for my liking too. Oh well.
I think that's tosh, tbh.
Ahead of the Holyrood elections, people were using the subsamples to argue the LDs would win at most one constituency seat, (And some people didn't even think they'd get that.) Instead they gained two constituency seats and managed to poll 67.4% in Orkney and Shetland.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
Damn, if that is right the LDs are doing almost as bad in Scotland as they are in Wales, and Scotland is where they hope to make quite a few gains. SNP is a bit high for my liking too. Oh well.
The Lib Dem vote is going to concentrate in only a few seats in Scotland.
Had 3 Lib Dem leaflets today - one from Mark Williams (winning here!) the Welsh Lib Dems and from National Lib Dems with a pic of Trump and Mrs May .Also says Plaid Cymru cannot win a National Election...well neither can the Lib Dems!
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
I was wondering why nobody had mentioned it.
Thanks, my book has a 48 - 51 seat target for the SNP to hit. So hopefully something like
Lib Dem Edi West, Orkney, E Dunbartonshire Lab East Lothian Tories D&G, BRS, DCT, WAK, Moray, East Renfrewshire :E
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
I was wondering why nobody had mentioned it.
I'm amazed we didn't get informed of the SCon 42% subsample that was recent.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
I was wondering why nobody had mentioned it.
Thanks, my book has a 48 - 51 seat target for the SNP to hit. So hopefully something like
Lib Dem Edi West, Orkney, E Dunbartonshire Lab East Lothian Tories D&G, BRS, DCT, WAK, Moray, East Renfrewshire :E
I'd favour Perth and North Perth shire over Moray, they've been closer there since 97 in general and consistently getting 30%. Better base to build from.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
So on the GE that's the SNP down 5% and the Tories up 16.6%
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
Damn, if that is right the LDs are doing almost as bad in Scotland as they are in Wales, and Scotland is where they hope to make quite a few gains. SNP is a bit high for my liking too. Oh well.
The Lib Dem vote is going to concentrate in only a few seats in Scotland.
I know, but I find it amazing they are so densely concentrated that their Scotland wide score is so low (even though generally higher than the 4.8 above).
I must admit, the malicious bugger in me would enjoy it if Corbyn closed in causing May a visible wobble.
May's campaign has been crap from my point of view. She doesn't do it for me at all. I much prefer the Gove and Boris style of Tory politics, being willing to say and do radical, often unpopular things, and offer themselves up to have their heads creamed off with a media shovel.
I know it's serious times and serious times need serious people and all that, and that May will probably end up with a booming majority... but her campaign is turgid, and more worryingly, I'm beginning to suspect that her campaign isn't borne out of safety-first, but more likely because she just doesn't have many fresh ideas.
A radical suggestion... post election, if she wanted to be truly radical and approach the Brexit negotiations in an intellectually confident, slightly belligerent manner (which the EU will certainly do from their end), she should put Dominic Cummings, Gove, Hannan and co in charge of it. Liked or hated, they were the intellectual power behind Vote Leave and demonstrated extraordinary resolve in carrying the Brexit torch in the face of the massed ranks of the establishment. They would certainly have a more detailed, forensic grasp of their desired outcomes than Davis, May and Fox appear to have.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
I was wondering why nobody had mentioned it.
I'm amazed we didn't get informed of the SCon 42% subsample that was recent.
Worry not, I think it was mentioned minutes after the Panelbase was released.
Moral dilemma. I despise the LibDems, or as they're known around here, the Sanctimonious Dirty-Campaigners Party, but I have them on 10-19 seats in a treble so my wallet needs them to improve. Oh, the depths I have sunk to since coming here and finding myself in bad company.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
I was wondering why nobody had mentioned it.
Thanks, my book has a 48 - 51 seat target for the SNP to hit. So hopefully something like
Lib Dem Edi West, Orkney, E Dunbartonshire Lab East Lothian Tories D&G, BRS, DCT, WAK, Moray, East Renfrewshire :E
I'd favour Perth and North Perth shire over Moray, they've been closer there since 97 in general and consistently getting 30%. Better base to build from.
I think the Tories are going to bust out the top of the range in all honesty.
The left hand photo seems to confirm my suspicions. Corbyn wasn't wearing a seatbelt. So what? Well, it is the law of the land that one must. If he feels himself above the law, that says something about the chap, something that isn't very good for someone who wants to tell the rest of us how to behave.
Actually he might not be breaking the law.
I think he's in an official police car with detectives. For security protocols if someone tried to shoot him, a seat belt might be a hindrance.
So, like taxi drivers, wearing a seat belt might not be mandatory under the law.
a driver who is reversing, or supervising a learner driver who is reversing in a vehicle being used for police, fire and rescue services a passenger in a trade vehicle and you’re investigating a fault driving a goods vehicle on deliveries that is travelling no more than 50 metres between stops a licensed taxi driver who is ‘plying for hire’ or carrying passengers
Even if it was an official vehicle, which I very much doubt, taking a politician to a political meeting does not mean the vehicle is being used for "police, fire and rescue" purposes under the Act. Look at any police car and you will see the people in it wearing belts, unless they are actually fighting with a prisoner.
No excuses, Corbyn was not wearing a seat belt. He should have been.
I didn't think wearing a seat belt in the back of a car was mandatory! Shows how ofet I'm in the back seat.
Crikey, Mr. Rog, wearing of rear seat belts, when fitted, has only been compulsory since 1987
Labour has narrowed the gap in the polls. I'm concerned that Corbyn may be able to remain leader if that turns out to be accurate. Even if the PLP are sensible and (assuming they can't oust him) split, it could see a decade of complacent Conservative government coupled with no real opposition.
One of the left's biggest problems is that they are so splintered and fractured with five or six parties competing for 45/48% of the vote.
If Corbyn wipes out the Greens, Respect and the Lib Dems and makes progress against the Welsh and Scot Nats he essentially improves the left's long term UK position.
Do you really see the Labour Party winning seats from the LibDems?
Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are the two theoretical targets, but it's hard to see them falling IMHO.
Not really, but I think there comes a point for many people where they start to wonder how valuable their vote is if they are giving it to a party with 8% vote share and 8/9 MPs.
There is evidence in the polling to suggest that Lib Dem>Labour drift is happening.
I'd be very surprised if the LDs didn't get into double figures in this election, and I think 11-12% is much more likely than 10%. Don't forget they increased their absolute number of votes in England 40% last week. Tides ebb and flow. And the UK has had a third (centrist) party getting a 10-20% share of the vote for most of the last last 50 years. Unless the Labour or Conservative Parties want to stake out that ground, then I suspect they'll manage it again (and likely sooner than you think).
The left hand photo seems to confirm my suspicions. Corbyn wasn't wearing a seatbelt. So what? Well, it is the law of the land that one must. If he feels himself above the law, that says something about the chap, something that isn't very good for someone who wants to tell the rest of us how to behave.
Actually he might not be breaking the law.
I think he's in an official police car with detectives. For security protocols if someone tried to shoot him, a seat belt might be a hindrance.
So, like taxi drivers, wearing a seat belt might not be mandatory under the law.
a driver who is reversing, or supervising a learner driver who is reversing in a vehicle being used for police, fire and rescue services a passenger in a trade vehicle and you’re investigating a fault driving a goods vehicle on deliveries that is travelling no more than 50 metres between stops a licensed taxi driver who is ‘plying for hire’ or carrying passengers
Even if it was an official vehicle, which I very much doubt, taking a politician to a political meeting does not mean the vehicle is being used for "police, fire and rescue" purposes under the Act. Look at any police car and you will see the people in it wearing belts, unless they are actually fighting with a prisoner.
No excuses, Corbyn was not wearing a seat belt. He should have been.
I didn't think wearing a seat belt in the back of a car was mandatory! Shows how ofet I'm in the back seat.
Crikey, Mr. Rog, wearing of rear seat belts, when fitted, has only been compulsory since 1987
That's what comes in being tallest/fattest in a group. I'm always given the front seat
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
I was wondering why nobody had mentioned it.
Thanks, my book has a 48 - 51 seat target for the SNP to hit. So hopefully something like
Lib Dem Edi West, Orkney, E Dunbartonshire Lab East Lothian Tories D&G, BRS, DCT, WAK, Moray, East Renfrewshire :E
I'd favour Perth and North Perth shire over Moray, they've been closer there since 97 in general and consistently getting 30%. Better base to build from.
I think the Tories are going to bust out the top of the range in all honesty.
They might get both in all fairness but I see Perth as the stronger showing, maybe 50% in the vote.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
Damn, if that is right the LDs are doing almost as bad in Scotland as they are in Wales, and Scotland is where they hope to make quite a few gains. SNP is a bit high for my liking too. Oh well.
The Lib Dem vote is going to concentrate in only a few seats in Scotland.
I know, but I find it amazing they are so densely concentrated that their Scotland wide score is so low (even though generally higher than the 4.8 above).
They only got 5% of the regional vote in the 2016 Holyroods, but tactical voting took that up to 7% in the constituencies. And that got them two gains and a nearly.
Press release just out from UKIP Sutton. They are not standing candidates in either Sutton&Cheam or Carshalton&Wallington. Bad news for the LDs there where in both Constituencies large UKIP vote to squeeze. Over 7000 in C&W. Brake is up against it now only defending a 1500 maj
I don't see how Brake survives, tbh. Leave voting constituency, big UKIP vote to squeeze, minimal Heathrow factor. He's personally popular, but I doubt that's enough.
I would have thought the LDs would be much more likely to gain Twickenham than to hold Carshalton. (Which is a shame because I like Tom Brake a lot more than I like Vince Cable.)
I think it's pretty tough for him, but he does have a reasonable Labour/Green vote to squeeze.
I also do wonder whether UKIP formally standing aside for the Tories is quite as good for the Tories as UKIP withering on the vine. "Farage is backing the Tory candidate" is quite a good targeted message for the Lib Dems when it comes to their own soft vote, Labour, Green, and even soft Con.
Well, Birmingham has more canals than Venice. It's simple.
Instead of these ecologically devastating super-sized cargo ships, Labour will introduce a fleet of narrow boats to transport goods around the world. Not only can they get nearer to the destination (preventing having to offload onto trucks), but they can also be horse-powered all the way from China, South America or Australia to here!
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
So on the GE that's the SNP down 5% and the Tories up 16.6%
So that's a 10.8% SNP to Con swing in Scotland.
Fire up the Klaxons.
Lib Dems a bit too low, but think the result will be very close to that. Could see some striking gains for the tories in north east scotland.
I must admit, the malicious bugger in me would enjoy it if Corbyn closed in causing May a visible wobble.
May's campaign has been crap from my point of view. She doesn't do it for me at all. I much prefer the Gove and Boris style of Tory politics, being willing to say and do radical, often unpopular things, and offer themselves up to have their heads creamed off with a media shovel.
I know it's serious times and serious times need serious people and all that, and that May will probably end up with a booming majority... but her campaign is turgid, and more worryingly, I'm beginning to suspect that her campaign isn't borne out of safety-first, but more likely because she just doesn't have many fresh ideas.
A radical suggestion... post election, if she wanted to be truly radical and approach the Brexit negotiations in an intellectually confident, slightly belligerent manner (which the EU will certainly do from their end), she should put Dominic Cummings, Gove, Hannan and co in charge of it. Liked or hated, they were the intellectual power behind Vote Leave and demonstrated extraordinary resolve in carrying the Brexit torch in the face of the massed ranks of the establishment. They would certainly have a more detailed, forensic grasp of their desired outcomes than Davis, May and Fox appear to have.
The Tory campaign has been deliberately low key, for obvious reasons. Labour can derail themselves without any further help.
However, once the Tory manifesto has been released, I expect the latter stages of the campaign to change markedly. I also expect Crosby & co to go after Corbyn and McDonnell very hard in the last few weeks. The Tories will play the security card for all its worth, and we all know Labour's Brexit stance changes every 24 hours.
Ultimately, when people are hovering over what box to put the X in, it is May or Corbyn as PM that will be at the forefront of their minds.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
Damn, if that is right the LDs are doing almost as bad in Scotland as they are in Wales, and Scotland is where they hope to make quite a few gains. SNP is a bit high for my liking too. Oh well.
The Lib Dem vote is going to concentrate in only a few seats in Scotland.
I know, but I find it amazing they are so densely concentrated that their Scotland wide score is so low (even though generally higher than the 4.8 above).
They only got 5% of the regional vote in the 2016 Holyroods, but tactical voting took that up to 7% in the constituencies. And that got them two gains and a nearly.
Scotland looks by far the brightest spot to the Lib Dems to me.
The Labour manifesto is going down very well amongst my left wing facebook friends. With the exception of Cambridge Lib/Lab battlegrounds will be bloody hard work. Maybe just Bermondsey & Cambridge in all honesty.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
I was wondering why nobody had mentioned it.
Thanks, my book has a 48 - 51 seat target for the SNP to hit. So hopefully something like
Lib Dem Edi West, Orkney, E Dunbartonshire Lab East Lothian Tories D&G, BRS, DCT, WAK, Moray, East Renfrewshire :E
I'd favour Perth and North Perth shire over Moray, they've been closer there since 97 in general and consistently getting 30%. Better base to build from.
I think the Tories are going to bust out the top of the range in all honesty.
what does that mean? How many seats are you predicting, bearing in mind lazy ex- labour (now snp) voters don't turnout for local elections.
Press release just out from UKIP Sutton. They are not standing candidates in either Sutton&Cheam or Carshalton&Wallington. Bad news for the LDs there where in both Constituencies large UKIP vote to squeeze. Over 7000 in C&W. Brake is up against it now only defending a 1500 maj
I don't see how Brake survives, tbh. Leave voting constituency, big UKIP vote to squeeze, minimal Heathrow factor. He's personally popular, but I doubt that's enough.
I would have thought the LDs would be much more likely to gain Twickenham than to hold Carshalton. (Which is a shame because I like Tom Brake a lot more than I like Vince Cable.)
I think it's pretty tough for him, but he does have a reasonable Labour/Green vote to squeeze.
I also do wonder whether UKIP formally standing aside for the Tories is quite as good for the Tories as UKIP withering on the vine. "Farage is backing the Tory candidate" is quite a good targeted message for the Lib Dems when it comes to their own soft vote, Labour, Green, and even soft Con.
Nah the maths doesn't lie. UKIP standing might have saved Brake.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
I was wondering why nobody had mentioned it.
Thanks, my book has a 48 - 51 seat target for the SNP to hit. So hopefully something like
Lib Dem Edi West, Orkney, E Dunbartonshire Lab East Lothian Tories D&G, BRS, DCT, WAK, Moray, East Renfrewshire :E
I'd favour Perth and North Perth shire over Moray, they've been closer there since 97 in general and consistently getting 30%. Better base to build from.
I think the Tories are going to bust out the top of the range in all honesty.
what does that mean? How many seats are you predicting, bearing in mind lazy ex- labour (now snp) voters don't turnout for local elections.
As I said I'm hoping for 48, but my gut says perhaps 46 right now.
Press release just out from UKIP Sutton. They are not standing candidates in either Sutton&Cheam or Carshalton&Wallington. Bad news for the LDs there where in both Constituencies large UKIP vote to squeeze. Over 7000 in C&W. Brake is up against it now only defending a 1500 maj
I don't see how Brake survives, tbh. Leave voting constituency, big UKIP vote to squeeze, minimal Heathrow factor. He's personally popular, but I doubt that's enough.
I would have thought the LDs would be much more likely to gain Twickenham than to hold Carshalton. (Which is a shame because I like Tom Brake a lot more than I like Vince Cable.)
I think it's pretty tough for him, but he does have a reasonable Labour/Green vote to squeeze.
I also do wonder whether UKIP formally standing aside for the Tories is quite as good for the Tories as UKIP withering on the vine. "Farage is backing the Tory candidate" is quite a good targeted message for the Lib Dems when it comes to their own soft vote, Labour, Green, and even soft Con.
Nah the maths doesn't lie. UKIP standing might have saved Brake.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
Damn, if that is right the LDs are doing almost as bad in Scotland as they are in Wales, and Scotland is where they hope to make quite a few gains. SNP is a bit high for my liking too. Oh well.
The Lib Dem vote is going to concentrate in only a few seats in Scotland.
I know, but I find it amazing they are so densely concentrated that their Scotland wide score is so low (even though generally higher than the 4.8 above).
They only got 5% of the regional vote in the 2016 Holyroods, but tactical voting took that up to 7% in the constituencies. And that got them two gains and a nearly.
Scotland looks by far the brightest spot to the Lib Dems to me.
The Labour manifesto is going down very well amongst my left wing facebook friends. With the exception of Cambridge Lib/Lab battlegrounds will be bloody hard work. Maybe just Bermondsey & Cambridge in all honesty.
Hornsey & Wood Green is apparently seeing a lot of LD activity (and negligible Labour). Can't see it myself, but there you go.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
Damn, if that is right the LDs are doing almost as bad in Scotland as they are in Wales, and Scotland is where they hope to make quite a few gains. SNP is a bit high for my liking too. Oh well.
I think that's tosh, tbh.
Ahead of the Holyrood elections, people were using the subsamples to argue the LDs would win at most one constituency seat, (And some people didn't even think they'd get that.) Instead they gained two constituency seats and managed to poll 67.4% in Orkney and Shetland.
It comes down to tactical voting. With four different electoral systems in play, Scottish voters are relatively savvy. Also there are strong pro and anti-SNP sentiments. Pro Union parties will do well at the expense of the SNP where they are collectively the majority (look for constituencies with SNP votes shares in 2015 that were less than 45%) and if one of the candidates can make a convincing case that they are the ones to beat the SNP and can attract supporters of other parties on a "Do you want us or do you want the SNP?" ticket. Those are more important predictors than the 2015 margin between the SNP and the second placed party and the subsequent national swing. I would say there are maybe three realistic Labour targets on that basis and the same number for the Lib Dems. There are maybe a dozen Tory targets. The upside is much greater for them. They are not all going to work. Six extra* seatsfor the Tories, two for the Lib Dems and one for Labour looks to be the median probability.
Even if it was an official vehicle, which I very much doubt, taking a politician to a political meeting does not mean the vehicle is being used for "police, fire and rescue" purposes under the Act. Look at any police car and you will see the people in it wearing belts, unless they are actually fighting with a prisoner.
No excuses, Corbyn was not wearing a seat belt. He should have been.
FFS the number of pompous and pious comments on this is ridiculous. Does anyone really give a shit? Perhaps he was unbuckling as the car drew to a halt (or buckling as it was departing). Or whatever.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
Damn, if that is right the LDs are doing almost as bad in Scotland as they are in Wales, and Scotland is where they hope to make quite a few gains. SNP is a bit high for my liking too. Oh well.
The Lib Dem vote is going to concentrate in only a few seats in Scotland.
I know, but I find it amazing they are so densely concentrated that their Scotland wide score is so low (even though generally higher than the 4.8 above).
They only got 5% of the regional vote in the 2016 Holyroods, but tactical voting took that up to 7% in the constituencies. And that got them two gains and a nearly.
Scotland looks by far the brightest spot to the Lib Dems to me.
The Labour manifesto is going down very well amongst my left wing facebook friends. With the exception of Cambridge Lib/Lab battlegrounds will be bloody hard work. Maybe just Bermondsey & Cambridge in all honesty.
Hornsey & Wood Green is apparently seeing a lot of LD activity (and negligible Labour). Can't see it myself, but there you go.
I can, just. Though I'm not topping up on my 3-1 there. Vauxhall is the Lib/Lab rick of the election so far in my opinion, frankly ridiculous odds there from the bookies.
Well, Birmingham has more canals than Venice. It's simple.
Instead of these ecologically devastating super-sized cargo ships, Labour will introduce a fleet of narrow boats to transport goods around the world. Not only can they get nearer to the destination (preventing having to offload onto trucks), but they can also be horse-powered all the way from China, South America or Australia to here!
You take the piss, Mr. Jessop, and rightly so. However, I wonder if there is not a nugget of value in encouraging freight back to the canals. Probably the volumes are too large these days but I wonder if there are not some cargos that have to be shifted in bulk and regularly but which are not time critical that could not be successfully be moved by water. It would, probably, be very environmentally friendly if they could.
Well, Birmingham has more canals than Venice. It's simple.
Instead of these ecologically devastating super-sized cargo ships, Labour will introduce a fleet of narrow boats to transport goods around the world. Not only can they get nearer to the destination (preventing having to offload onto trucks), but they can also be horse-powered all the way from China, South America or Australia to here!
from the twitter
"Jim Bowen used to give away speedboats on Bullseye to people living in Birmingham tower blocks. Never realised he was a maritime visionary.."
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
Well, Birmingham has more canals than Venice. It's simple.
Instead of these ecologically devastating super-sized cargo ships, Labour will introduce a fleet of narrow boats to transport goods around the world. Not only can they get nearer to the destination (preventing having to offload onto trucks), but they can also be horse-powered all the way from China, South America or Australia to here!
You take the piss, Mr. Jessop, and rightly so. However, I wonder if there is not a nugget of value in encouraging freight back to the canals. Probably the volumes are too large these days but I wonder if there are not some cargos that have to be shifted in bulk and regularly but which are not time critical that could not be successfully be moved by water. It would, probably, be very environmentally friendly if they could.
Droneships?
Oh, sorry, that won't go down well with the unions...
The left hand photo seems to confirm my suspicions. Corbyn wasn't wearing a seatbelt. So what? Well, it is the law of the land that one must. If he feels himself above the law, that says something about the chap, something that isn't very good for someone who wants to tell the rest of us how to behave.
Actually he might not be breaking the law.
I think he's in an official police car with detectives. For security protocols if someone tried to shoot him, a seat belt might be a hindrance.
So, like taxi drivers, wearing a seat belt might not be mandatory under the law.
a driver who is reversing, or supervising a learner driver who is reversing in a vehicle being used for police, fire and rescue services a passenger in a trade vehicle and you’re investigating a fault driving a goods vehicle on deliveries that is travelling no more than 50 metres between stops a licensed taxi driver who is ‘plying for hire’ or carrying passengers
Even if it was an official vehicle, which I very much doubt, taking a politician to a political meeting does not mean the vehicle is being used for "police, fire and rescue" purposes under the Act. Look at any police car and you will see the people in it wearing belts, unless they are actually fighting with a prisoner.
No excuses, Corbyn was not wearing a seat belt. He should have been.
FFS the number of pompous and pious comments on this is ridiculous. Does anyone really give a shit? Perhaps he was unbuckling as the car drew to a halt (or buckling as it was departing). Or whatever.
Fewer than a handful were outraged about it, there haven't been that many.
Well, Birmingham has more canals than Venice. It's simple.
Instead of these ecologically devastating super-sized cargo ships, Labour will introduce a fleet of narrow boats to transport goods around the world. Not only can they get nearer to the destination (preventing having to offload onto trucks), but they can also be horse-powered all the way from China, South America or Australia to here!
You take the piss, Mr. Jessop, and rightly so. However, I wonder if there is not a nugget of value in encouraging freight back to the canals. Probably the volumes are too large these days but I wonder if there are not some cargos that have to be shifted in bulk and regularly but which are not time critical that could not be successfully be moved by water. It would, probably, be very environmentally friendly if they could.
I recall in the Ben Elton book Gridlock there is a guy advocating just such a system - on the basis it will take a long time to get anywhere, but once set up you have a constant incoming stream of raw material at all times.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
Damn, if that is right the LDs are doing almost as bad in Scotland as they are in Wales, and Scotland is where they hope to make quite a few gains. SNP is a bit high for my liking too. Oh well.
I think that's tosh, tbh.
Ahead of the Holyrood elections, people were using the subsamples to argue the LDs would win at most one constituency seat, (And some people didn't even think they'd get that.) Instead they gained two constituency seats and managed to poll 67.4% in Orkney and Shetland.
It comes down to tactical voting. With four different electoral systems in play, Scottish voters are relatively savvy. Also there are strong pro and anti-SNP sentiments. Pro Union parties will do well at the expense of the SNP where they are collectively the majority (look for constituencies with SNP votes shares in 2015 that were less than 45%) and if one of the candidates can make a convincing case that they are the ones to beat the SNP and can attract supporters of other parties on a "Do you want us or do you want the SNP?" ticket. Those are more important predictors than the 2015 margin between the SNP and the second placed party and the subsequent national swing. I would say there are maybe three realistic Labour targets on that basis and the same number for the Lib Dems. There are maybe a dozen Tory targets. The upside is much greater for them. They are not all going to work. Six extra* seatsfor the Tories, two for the Lib Dems and one for Labour looks to be the median probability.
*Edit
Technically there are four Scottish LD targets:
- Dumbartonshire East - Edinburgh West - Fife NE - Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
I think Edinburgh West, where last week's locals reinforced the Holyrood 2016 vote is the nearest to a certainty. They'll probably pick up one of the other three.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
Damn, if that is right the LDs are doing almost as bad in Scotland as they are in Wales, and Scotland is where they hope to make quite a few gains. SNP is a bit high for my liking too. Oh well.
I think that's tosh, tbh.
Ahead of the Holyrood elections, people were using the subsamples to argue the LDs would win at most one constituency seat, (And some people didn't even think they'd get that.) Instead they gained two constituency seats and managed to poll 67.4% in Orkney and Shetland.
It comes down to tactical voting. With four different electoral systems in play, Scottish voters are relatively savvy. Also there are strong pro and anti-SNP sentiments. Pro Union parties will do well at the expense of the SNP where they are collectively the majority (look for constituencies with SNP votes shares in 2015 that were less than 45%) and if one of the candidates can make a convincing case that they are the ones to beat the SNP and can attract supporters of other parties on a "Do you want us or do you want the SNP?" ticket. Those are more important predictors than the 2015 margin between the SNP and the second placed party and the subsequent national swing. I would say there are maybe three realistic Labour targets on that basis and the same number for the Lib Dems. There are maybe a dozen Tory targets. The upside is much greater for them. They are not all going to work. Six extra* seatsfor the Tories, two for the Lib Dems and one for Labour looks to be the median probability.
*Edit
Technically there are four Scottish LD targets:
- Dumbartonshire East - Edinburgh West - Fife NE - Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
I think Edinburgh West, where last week's locals reinforced the Holyrood 2016 vote is the nearest to a certainty. They'll probably pick up one of the other three.
FFS the number of pompous and pious comments on this is ridiculous. Does anyone really give a shit? Perhaps he was unbuckling as the car drew to a halt (or buckling as it was departing). Or whatever.
Fewer than a handful were outraged about it, there haven't been that many.
I despair that there were any. And I'm not going to start on those people who thought his chauffeur was in the back seat with him (although that would explain the accident).
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
I was wondering why nobody had mentioned it.
Thanks, my book has a 48 - 51 seat target for the SNP to hit. So hopefully something like
Lib Dem Edi West, Orkney, E Dunbartonshire Lab East Lothian Tories D&G, BRS, DCT, WAK, Moray, East Renfrewshire :E
I'd favour Perth and North Perth shire over Moray, they've been closer there since 97 in general and consistently getting 30%. Better base to build from.
I think the Tories are going to bust out the top of the range in all honesty.
what does that mean? How many seats are you predicting, bearing in mind lazy ex- labour (now snp) voters don't turnout for local elections.
As I said I'm hoping for 48, but my gut says perhaps 46 right now.
Press release just out from UKIP Sutton. They are not standing candidates in either Sutton&Cheam or Carshalton&Wallington. Bad news for the LDs there where in both Constituencies large UKIP vote to squeeze. Over 7000 in C&W. Brake is up against it now only defending a 1500 maj
I don't see how Brake survives, tbh. Leave voting constituency, big UKIP vote to squeeze, minimal Heathrow factor. He's personally popular, but I doubt that's enough.
I would have thought the LDs would be much more likely to gain Twickenham than to hold Carshalton. (Which is a shame because I like Tom Brake a lot more than I like Vince Cable.)
I think it's pretty tough for him, but he does have a reasonable Labour/Green vote to squeeze.
I also do wonder whether UKIP formally standing aside for the Tories is quite as good for the Tories as UKIP withering on the vine. "Farage is backing the Tory candidate" is quite a good targeted message for the Lib Dems when it comes to their own soft vote, Labour, Green, and even soft Con.
Nah the maths doesn't lie. UKIP standing might have saved Brake.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2) Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2) Labour 15.8% (-0.7) Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
I was wondering why nobody had mentioned it.
Thanks, my book has a 48 - 51 seat target for the SNP to hit. So hopefully something like
Lib Dem Edi West, Orkney, E Dunbartonshire Lab East Lothian Tories D&G, BRS, DCT, WAK, Moray, East Renfrewshire :E
I'd favour Perth and North Perth shire over Moray, they've been closer there since 97 in general and consistently getting 30%. Better base to build from.
I think the Tories are going to bust out the top of the range in all honesty.
what does that mean? How many seats are you predicting, bearing in mind lazy ex- labour (now snp) voters don't turnout for local elections.
As I said I'm hoping for 48, but my gut says perhaps 46 right now.
Comments
If Corbyn wipes out the Greens, Respect and the Lib Dems and makes progress against the Welsh and Scot Nats he essentially improves the left's long term UK position.
I think he's in an official police car with detectives. For security protocols if someone tried to shoot him, a seat belt might be a hindrance.
So, like taxi drivers, wearing a seat belt might not be mandatory under the law.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/the-last-thing-brexit-britain-needs-is-labours-old-fashioned-socialism/
https://www.gov.uk/seat-belts-law/when-you-dont-need-to-wear-a-seat-belt
You don’t need to wear a seat belt if you’re:
a driver who is reversing, or supervising a learner driver who is reversing
in a vehicle being used for police, fire and rescue services
a passenger in a trade vehicle and you’re investigating a fault
driving a goods vehicle on deliveries that is travelling no more than 50 metres between stops
a licensed taxi driver who is ‘plying for hire’ or carrying passengers
Bad news for the LDs there where in both Constituencies large UKIP vote to squeeze. Over 7000 in C&W.
Brake is up against it now only defending a 1500 maj
Nice to see you have admitted your characterisation of Hannan was dishonest though.
No excuses, Corbyn was not wearing a seat belt. He should have been.
Or to be more succinct:
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are the two theoretical targets, but it's hard to see them falling IMHO.
SNP 45.0% (+2.2)
Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2)
Labour 15.8% (-0.7)
Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)
(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.
I would have thought the LDs would be much more likely to gain Twickenham than to hold Carshalton. (Which is a shame because I like Tom Brake a lot more than I like Vince Cable.)
There is evidence in the polling to suggest that Lib Dem>Labour drift is happening.
Ahead of the Holyrood elections, people were using the subsamples to argue the LDs would win at most one constituency seat, (And some people didn't even think they'd get that.) Instead they gained two constituency seats and managed to poll 67.4% in Orkney and Shetland.
Lib Dem
Edi West, Orkney, E Dunbartonshire
Lab
East Lothian
Tories
D&G, BRS, DCT, WAK, Moray, East Renfrewshire :E
So that's a 10.8% SNP to Con swing in Scotland.
Fire up the Klaxons.
May's campaign has been crap from my point of view. She doesn't do it for me at all. I much prefer the Gove and Boris style of Tory politics, being willing to say and do radical, often unpopular things, and offer themselves up to have their heads creamed off with a media shovel.
I know it's serious times and serious times need serious people and all that, and that May will probably end up with a booming majority... but her campaign is turgid, and more worryingly, I'm beginning to suspect that her campaign isn't borne out of safety-first, but more likely because she just doesn't have many fresh ideas.
A radical suggestion... post election, if she wanted to be truly radical and approach the Brexit negotiations in an intellectually confident, slightly belligerent manner (which the EU will certainly do from their end), she should put Dominic Cummings, Gove, Hannan and co in charge of it. Liked or hated, they were the intellectual power behind Vote Leave and demonstrated extraordinary resolve in carrying the Brexit torch in the face of the massed ranks of the establishment. They would certainly have a more detailed, forensic grasp of their desired outcomes than Davis, May and Fox appear to have.
#StayTuned for a Labour parliamentary candidate who surely won't be a parliamentary candidate for very much longer
Embarrassing Mr P, embarrassing...
I also do wonder whether UKIP formally standing aside for the Tories is quite as good for the Tories as UKIP withering on the vine. "Farage is backing the Tory candidate" is quite a good targeted message for the Lib Dems when it comes to their own soft vote, Labour, Green, and even soft Con.
Instead of these ecologically devastating super-sized cargo ships, Labour will introduce a fleet of narrow boats to transport goods around the world. Not only can they get nearer to the destination (preventing having to offload onto trucks), but they can also be horse-powered all the way from China, South America or Australia to here!
However, once the Tory manifesto has been released, I expect the latter stages of the campaign to change markedly. I also expect Crosby & co to go after Corbyn and McDonnell very hard in the last few weeks. The Tories will play the security card for all its worth, and we all know Labour's Brexit stance changes every 24 hours.
Ultimately, when people are hovering over what box to put the X in, it is May or Corbyn as PM that will be at the forefront of their minds.
The Labour manifesto is going down very well amongst my left wing facebook friends. With the exception of Cambridge Lib/Lab battlegrounds will be bloody hard work. Maybe just Bermondsey & Cambridge in all honesty.
How are Labour seat sellers feeling right now? A tad uncomfortable, perhaps?
*Edit
Homeless have the highest smoking rate in the UK, but perhaps getting them homed would be the first step.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040708
"Jim Bowen used to give away speedboats on Bullseye to people living in Birmingham tower blocks. Never realised he was a maritime visionary.."
Oh, sorry, that won't go down well with the unions...
- Dumbartonshire East
- Edinburgh West
- Fife NE
- Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
I think Edinburgh West, where last week's locals reinforced the Holyrood 2016 vote is the nearest to a certainty. They'll probably pick up one of the other three.
1. Speaks as tho there will be a Tory Govt.
2. Don't think he has once mentioned Jeremy Corbyn.
WoodCOCK
(Ah, stewardess. Is that my coat?)