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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the election draws closer LAB leader Corbyn is seeing a boo

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,293

    nunu said:
    Well, Birmingham has more canals than Venice. It's simple.

    Instead of these ecologically devastating super-sized cargo ships, Labour will introduce a fleet of narrow boats to transport goods around the world. Not only can they get nearer to the destination (preventing having to offload onto trucks), but they can also be horse-powered all the way from China, South America or Australia to here!
    You take the piss, Mr. Jessop, and rightly so. However, I wonder if there is not a nugget of value in encouraging freight back to the canals. Probably the volumes are too large these days but I wonder if there are not some cargos that have to be shifted in bulk and regularly but which are not time critical that could not be successfully be moved by water. It would, probably, be very environmentally friendly if they could.
    I think there are still a few commercial father-and-son type canal operations around, mainly delivering coal and wood to riverside houses and other canal owners. Horse-drawn ones are used in a few places for tourist boats.

    The problems that face narrow canals are the same ones that faced them 200 years ago at the dawn of the railway age: they are slow, limited in capacity, and subject to the vagaries of the weather: a shortage of water in summer, and they have too much water, or are frozen, in winter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914

    Scott_P said:
    The Conservatives need to decide quickly whether Jeremy Corbyn is wicked or hapless.
    I'd go for hapless - its what a lot of people already think, and it was silly when they went from Ed M being a figure of fun then menace in the span of a week, it will be much harder with Corbyn, even though he probably would be a lot more dangerous were he ever to win.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2017
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Conservatives need to decide quickly whether Jeremy Corbyn is wicked or hapless.
    I'd go for hapless - its what a lot of people already think, and it was silly when they went from Ed M being a figure of fun then menace in the span of a week, it will be much harder with Corbyn, even though he probably would be a lot more dangerous were he ever to win.
    I think the evil thing would work on McDonnell, with Abbott and Costello Corbyn being the clueless ones. Which is pretty much what the poster does.

    Corbyn as the clueless Sultan, with McDonnell as Jafar. And Abbott as Jasmine in a silky outfit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411

    Two things that stand out from Gordon Brown's Coventry speech:

    1. Speaks as tho there will be a Tory Govt.
    2. Don't think he has once mentioned Jeremy Corbyn.

    Coventry South and NW both CON Gains.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sky failing to find support for scrapping tuition fees amongst students in Cardiff Central.
    So much for the radical youth
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2017
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Conservatives need to decide quickly whether Jeremy Corbyn is wicked or hapless.
    I'd go for hapless - its what a lot of people already think, and it was silly when they went from Ed M being a figure of fun then menace in the span of a week, it will be much harder with Corbyn, even though he probably would be a lot more dangerous were he ever to win.
    Hapless with a malevolent Macdonnell in background?

    Say a poster of Corbyn with a strip torn across it and some red eyes in the space?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    nunu said:
    Well, Birmingham has more canals than Venice. It's simple.

    Instead of these ecologically devastating super-sized cargo ships, Labour will introduce a fleet of narrow boats to transport goods around the world. Not only can they get nearer to the destination (preventing having to offload onto trucks), but they can also be horse-powered all the way from China, South America or Australia to here!
    You take the piss, Mr. Jessop, and rightly so. However, I wonder if there is not a nugget of value in encouraging freight back to the canals. Probably the volumes are too large these days but I wonder if there are not some cargos that have to be shifted in bulk and regularly but which are not time critical that could not be successfully be moved by water. It would, probably, be very environmentally friendly if they could.
    I think there are still a few commercial father-and-son type canal operations around, mainly delivering coal and wood to riverside houses and other canal owners. Horse-drawn ones are used in a few places for tourist boats.

    The problems that face narrow canals are the same ones that faced them 200 years ago at the dawn of the railway age: they are slow, limited in capacity, and subject to the vagaries of the weather: a shortage of water in summer, and they have too much water, or are frozen, in winter.
    There was a reason why the railway replaced them and in turn was replaced itself. Has that been forgotten?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    kle4 said:

    nunu said:
    Well, Birmingham has more canals than Venice. It's simple.

    Instead of these ecologically devastating super-sized cargo ships, Labour will introduce a fleet of narrow boats to transport goods around the world. Not only can they get nearer to the destination (preventing having to offload onto trucks), but they can also be horse-powered all the way from China, South America or Australia to here!
    You take the piss, Mr. Jessop, and rightly so. However, I wonder if there is not a nugget of value in encouraging freight back to the canals. Probably the volumes are too large these days but I wonder if there are not some cargos that have to be shifted in bulk and regularly but which are not time critical that could not be successfully be moved by water. It would, probably, be very environmentally friendly if they could.
    I recall in the Ben Elton book Gridlock there is a guy advocating just such a system - on the basis it will take a long time to get anywhere, but once set up you have a constant incoming stream of raw material at all times.
    Yeah, I don't think it would really work though. There would be too much value (i.e. money) tied up in stuff chugging along at 4 m.p.h. max. The cargo where it might work would be stuff that is high bulk but low value and with delivery times based on a day rather than a half-hour slot. It is a nice idea, but finding the right cargo on the right route is probably not possible. The railway's succeeded for a reason and that was before we moved on from heavy industry.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,995

    Sky failing to find support for scrapping tuition fees amongst students in Cardiff Central.
    So much for the radical youth

    Well Labour are planning on scrapping fees for future students, not to write off the debts of current and past students.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,019

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    timmo said:

    Press release just out from UKIP Sutton. They are not standing candidates in either Sutton&Cheam or Carshalton&Wallington.
    Bad news for the LDs there where in both Constituencies large UKIP vote to squeeze. Over 7000 in C&W.
    Brake is up against it now only defending a 1500 maj

    I don't see how Brake survives, tbh. Leave voting constituency, big UKIP vote to squeeze, minimal Heathrow factor. He's personally popular, but I doubt that's enough.

    I would have thought the LDs would be much more likely to gain Twickenham than to hold Carshalton. (Which is a shame because I like Tom Brake a lot more than I like Vince Cable.)
    I think it's pretty tough for him, but he does have a reasonable Labour/Green vote to squeeze.

    I also do wonder whether UKIP formally standing aside for the Tories is quite as good for the Tories as UKIP withering on the vine. "Farage is backing the Tory candidate" is quite a good targeted message for the Lib Dems when it comes to their own soft vote, Labour, Green, and even soft Con.
    Nah the maths doesn't lie. UKIP standing might have saved Brake.
    Putative headline - "Brake cut".
    Make or Brake
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    "A Labour parliamentary candidate sent a string of extraordinary tweets peddling conspiracy theories about Israel, falsely accusing Tory MP Nadhim Zahawi of buying oil from ISIS and claiming Rupert Murdoch profited from the conflict in Syria. Caroline Kolek, Labour’s candidate in Tiverton and Honiton, posted a series of tweets where she also expressed support for Ken Livingstone and re-posted a quote entitled “I acknowledge Israel is the problem“."
    https://order-order.com/2017/05/11/revealed-mad-isis-conspiracies-of-labour-mp-hopeful/
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2017
    Just got an email titled 'Too big a risk, Richard'. I thought at first it must be from a spread-betting company declining my business, but it turned out to be from Phil Hammond.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    timmo said:

    Press release just out from UKIP Sutton. They are not standing candidates in either Sutton&Cheam or Carshalton&Wallington.
    Bad news for the LDs there where in both Constituencies large UKIP vote to squeeze. Over 7000 in C&W.
    Brake is up against it now only defending a 1500 maj

    I don't see how Brake survives, tbh. Leave voting constituency, big UKIP vote to squeeze, minimal Heathrow factor. He's personally popular, but I doubt that's enough.

    I would have thought the LDs would be much more likely to gain Twickenham than to hold Carshalton. (Which is a shame because I like Tom Brake a lot more than I like Vince Cable.)
    I think it's pretty tough for him, but he does have a reasonable Labour/Green vote to squeeze.

    I also do wonder whether UKIP formally standing aside for the Tories is quite as good for the Tories as UKIP withering on the vine. "Farage is backing the Tory candidate" is quite a good targeted message for the Lib Dems when it comes to their own soft vote, Labour, Green, and even soft Con.
    Nah the maths doesn't lie. UKIP standing might have saved Brake.
    Putative headline - "Brake cut".
    Make or Brake
    We have a winner. At least for the headline in the local press the day before.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    tlg86 said:

    Sky failing to find support for scrapping tuition fees amongst students in Cardiff Central.
    So much for the radical youth

    Well Labour are planning on scrapping fees for future students, not to write off the debts of current and past students.
    Popular with those not old enough to vote. Ah well, at least I never had to pay them
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Incidentally, in case it hasn't been noted here.

    Sam Gould, the UKIP candidate for Caerphilly, who created a PR stir on a number of occasions with his clever stunts (projecting the UKIP logo onto Caerphilly castle etc) was diagnosed with bowel cancer a few weeks back.

    He is only 33, has a young family and isn't your stereotypical Kipper. The prognosis is dire because the cancer had spread everywhere, he's at stage 4 and already looks very ill, but it is life affirming to see his political foes have visited him to show their support
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    Matt's always on form. The most astute political commentator of the last couple of decades.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    tlg86 said:

    Sky failing to find support for scrapping tuition fees amongst students in Cardiff Central.
    So much for the radical youth

    Well Labour are planning on scrapping fees for future students, not to write off the debts of current and past students.
    Which prompts the question - do students with loans get to enjoy additional taxes on their university debts and then paying additional taxes so that those who follow can get it for nothing? A double tax.

    Corbyn should have gone for a retrospective tax on older graduates for the simple reason that none of them are going to vote for him anyway.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335
    Pulpstar said:

    Two things that stand out from Gordon Brown's Coventry speech:

    1. Speaks as tho there will be a Tory Govt.
    2. Don't think he has once mentioned Jeremy Corbyn.

    Coventry South and NW both CON Gains.
    This smacks of a favour to his old mucker - Geoff Robinson.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    Maybe this has been mentioned, but Corbyn with no seatbelt - was he in a(n unmarked) police car? In which case not illegal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411
    Fenster said:

    Incidentally, in case it hasn't been noted here.

    Sam Gould, the UKIP candidate for Caerphilly, who created a PR stir on a number of occasions with his clever stunts (projecting the UKIP logo onto Caerphilly castle etc) was diagnosed with bowel cancer a few weeks back.

    He is only 33, has a young family and isn't your stereotypical Kipper. The prognosis is dire because the cancer had spread everywhere, he's at stage 4 and already looks very ill, but it is life affirming to see his political foes have visited him to show their support

    That's truly horrendous news.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited May 2017
    https://twitter.com/telepolitics/status/862652791759577088

    EDIT: Is it just me, or does it look like a volunteer relieving himself against the poster?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    nunu said:
    Well, Birmingham has more canals than Venice. It's simple.

    Instead of these ecologically devastating super-sized cargo ships, Labour will introduce a fleet of narrow boats to transport goods around the world. Not only can they get nearer to the destination (preventing having to offload onto trucks), but they can also be horse-powered all the way from China, South America or Australia to here!
    You take the piss, Mr. Jessop, and rightly so. However, I wonder if there is not a nugget of value in encouraging freight back to the canals. Probably the volumes are too large these days but I wonder if there are not some cargos that have to be shifted in bulk and regularly but which are not time critical that could not be successfully be moved by water. It would, probably, be very environmentally friendly if they could.
    I think there are still a few commercial father-and-son type canal operations around, mainly delivering coal and wood to riverside houses and other canal owners. Horse-drawn ones are used in a few places for tourist boats.

    The problems that face narrow canals are the same ones that faced them 200 years ago at the dawn of the railway age: they are slow, limited in capacity, and subject to the vagaries of the weather: a shortage of water in summer, and they have too much water, or are frozen, in winter.
    You are correct of course, and I made some other related points to my post to MR. KLE4 a few minutes ago. I just can't help feeling we are missing a trick here. We have a fantastic network of canals, we have over-crowded roads, the railways are reaching saturation point trying to cope with passenger trade. Dunno, but there is a resource there that is being under utilised.

    P.S. Are you free for early-evening drinkies on the 27th
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I have a feeling I'll hear this one again:

    https://twitter.com/JosephineCumbo/status/862653461216800768
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    image
    Jason said:

    Fenster said:


    I also expect Crosby & co to go after Corbyn and McDonnell very hard in the last few weeks.

    Read somewhere yesterday (sorry... cannot remember... looking...) which said that there is already a big-spend torrent of very highly targetted, Messina (?) Tory attack ads on Fb, largely based on the juicy bits of the Corbyn/McDonnell backstory. Haven't seen them myself as my Fb feed is a politics free zone. Anyone?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/telepolitics/status/862652791759577088

    EDIT: Is it just me, or does it look like a volunteer relieving himself against the poster?

    Also, the motion of the poster is not 'holding back' but 'grabbing and pulling forward'
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Read somewhere yesterday (sorry... cannot remember... looking...) which said that there is already a big-spend torrent of very highly targetted, Messina (?) Tory attack ads on Fb, largely based on the juicy bits of the Corbyn/McDonnell backstory. Haven't seen them myself as my Fb feed is a politics-free zone. Anyone?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    edited May 2017
    Fenster said:

    Incidentally, in case it hasn't been noted here.

    Sam Gould, the UKIP candidate for Caerphilly, who created a PR stir on a number of occasions with his clever stunts (projecting the UKIP logo onto Caerphilly castle etc) was diagnosed with bowel cancer a few weeks back.

    He is only 33, has a young family and isn't your stereotypical Kipper. The prognosis is dire because the cancer had spread everywhere, he's at stage 4 and already looks very ill, but it is life affirming to see his political foes have visited him to show their support

    Shit. Weird when people younger than you get sick, hope his family have good support. :cry:
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,248
    Sandpit said:

    Maybe this has been mentioned, but Corbyn with no seatbelt - was he in a(n unmarked) police car? In which case not illegal.

    But that misses the point, Sandy. Surely he should belt up wherever he is?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,019
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/telepolitics/status/862652791759577088

    EDIT: Is it just me, or does it look like a volunteer relieving himself against the poster?

    Vote Labour to end arms sales - Labour the party for World Piss.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367

    Sandpit said:

    Maybe this has been mentioned, but Corbyn with no seatbelt - was he in a(n unmarked) police car? In which case not illegal.

    But that misses the point, Sandy. Surely he should belt up wherever he is?
    Isn't the protocol, unlike the PM, that he doesnt have a bullet resistant car, so needs to be free of hinderances in emergencies.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    MTimT said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/telepolitics/status/862652791759577088

    EDIT: Is it just me, or does it look like a volunteer relieving himself against the poster?

    Also, the motion of the poster is not 'holding back' but 'grabbing and pulling forward'
    I have a book on marketing whose example is that there is no difference in a graphic between a man putting money in someone's pocket and stealing it from him.

    Similar point here I think....
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    Sandpit said:

    Fenster said:

    Incidentally, in case it hasn't been noted here.

    Sam Gould, the UKIP candidate for Caerphilly, who created a PR stir on a number of occasions with his clever stunts (projecting the UKIP logo onto Caerphilly castle etc) was diagnosed with bowel cancer a few weeks back.

    He is only 33, has a young family and isn't your stereotypical Kipper. The prognosis is dire because the cancer had spread everywhere, he's at stage 4 and already looks very ill, but it is life affirming to see his political foes have visited him to show their support

    Shit. Weird when people younger than you get sick, hope his family have good support. :cry:
    Really difficult to diagnose I understand.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,293

    nunu said:
    Well, Birmingham has more canals than Venice. It's simple.

    Instead of these ecologically devastating super-sized cargo ships, Labour will introduce a fleet of narrow boats to transport goods around the world. Not only can they get nearer to the destination (preventing having to offload onto trucks), but they can also be horse-powered all the way from China, South America or Australia to here!
    You take the piss, Mr. Jessop, and rightly so. However, I wonder if there is not a nugget of value in encouraging freight back to the canals. Probably the volumes are too large these days but I wonder if there are not some cargos that have to be shifted in bulk and regularly but which are not time critical that could not be successfully be moved by water. It would, probably, be very environmentally friendly if they could.
    I think there are still a few commercial father-and-son type canal operations around, mainly delivering coal and wood to riverside houses and other canal owners. Horse-drawn ones are used in a few places for tourist boats.

    The problems that face narrow canals are the same ones that faced them 200 years ago at the dawn of the railway age: they are slow, limited in capacity, and subject to the vagaries of the weather: a shortage of water in summer, and they have too much water, or are frozen, in winter.
    You are correct of course, and I made some other related points to my post to MR. KLE4 a few minutes ago. I just can't help feeling we are missing a trick here. We have a fantastic network of canals, we have over-crowded roads, the railways are reaching saturation point trying to cope with passenger trade. Dunno, but there is a resource there that is being under utilised.

    P.S. Are you free for early-evening drinkies on the 27th
    Yep, should be. It's on the calendar.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    GE nominations close in about 2 hours 45 mins. How many candidates will UKIP manage to stand?

    I say less than 100, which screws the polls completely.
    Yes, they'd struggle to get more than 3% with 100 candidates.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914

    I have a feeling I'll hear this one again:

    https://twitter.com/JosephineCumbo/status/862653461216800768

    Was he a good Pensions minister who would know what he is talking about? Genuine question.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    totally off topic but sad news
    Geoffrey Bayldon, famous for his role as Catweazle, has died aged 93 according to reports.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    After all the musicians of the 70s and 80s that died last year, seeing the musicians of the 90s die is very weird. Only 47, poor bugger.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/music/news/robert-miles-creator-dance-music-classic-children-has-died-aged/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    Scott_P said:
    For the many not the few is not a terrible line, although it does feel like a hostage to fortune when (if) the Tories win massively, proving the many are behind them.
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    Hi all. Political betting has reeled me back in after a few months away post-EU referendum. It really is the best place for political discussion at big moments. I have even decided to get back in to some campaigning again for the Conservatives. Hope people don't mind me going off topic but I remember a really good discussion, I think last year, about decent mobile phones. Having dropped mine, I am in the market and wondered what people recommended? I want a smart phone but I don't care about all the bells and whistles, prefer value and sturdiness and security. Thanks!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411

    I have a feeling I'll hear this one again:

    https://twitter.com/JosephineCumbo/status/862653461216800768

    Blimey.

    We await the Tory manifesto though. That is what actually will be happening.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    For the many not the few is not a terrible line, although it does feel like a hostage to fortune when (if) the Tories win massively, proving the many are behind them.
    After all Labour's antisemitism problems it sticks with me as: "For the many, not the Jew" :(
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335

    Sandpit said:

    Fenster said:

    Incidentally, in case it hasn't been noted here.

    Sam Gould, the UKIP candidate for Caerphilly, who created a PR stir on a number of occasions with his clever stunts (projecting the UKIP logo onto Caerphilly castle etc) was diagnosed with bowel cancer a few weeks back.

    He is only 33, has a young family and isn't your stereotypical Kipper. The prognosis is dire because the cancer had spread everywhere, he's at stage 4 and already looks very ill, but it is life affirming to see his political foes have visited him to show their support

    Shit. Weird when people younger than you get sick, hope his family have good support. :cry:
    Really difficult to diagnose I understand.
    In the young at least. GPs work a lot on levels of risk - what is the chances of % in this person with these symptoms etc. I seem to recall there was talk of a national screening service for age 50+
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    GE nominations close in about 2 hours 45 mins. How many candidates will UKIP manage to stand?

    I say less than 100, which screws the polls completely.
    Yes, they'd struggle to get more than 3% with 100 candidates.
    A lot of the markets may will move quite a bit in the next 6 hours,

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    I have a feeling I'll hear this one again:

    https://twitter.com/JosephineCumbo/status/862653461216800768

    Was he a good Pensions minister who would know what he is talking about? Genuine question.
    He was by far the most important Pensions Minister we have ever had. He was far from perfect but he knew what he was talking about and actually had the time and space to implement a reasonably coherent policy.

    He would have made an infinitely better leader of the Lib Dems than Tim Farron.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,293
    JamesM said:

    Hi all. Political betting has reeled me back in after a few months away post-EU referendum. It really is the best place for political discussion at big moments. I have even decided to get back in to some campaigning again for the Conservatives. Hope people don't mind me going off topic but I remember a really good discussion, I think last year, about decent mobile phones. Having dropped mine, I am in the market and wondered what people recommended? I want a smart phone but I don't care about all the bells and whistles, prefer value and sturdiness and security. Thanks!

    If you want sturdiness, I was very tempted by a Cat phone last year. Not necessarily the best value, though.
    http://www.catphones.com/en-gb/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,140
    JamesM said:

    Hi all. Political betting has reeled me back in after a few months away post-EU referendum. It really is the best place for political discussion at big moments. I have even decided to get back in to some campaigning again for the Conservatives. Hope people don't mind me going off topic but I remember a really good discussion, I think last year, about decent mobile phones. Having dropped mine, I am in the market and wondered what people recommended? I want a smart phone but I don't care about all the bells and whistles, prefer value and sturdiness and security. Thanks!

    OnePlus Three.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    I'm going to go out on a limb and guess UKIP have managed 200+ candidates.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    It was reasonable to suggest that the UK could keep access to the Single Market, even though we stopped being members of it. The EU27 have since made very clear that the SM and free movement are indivisible and implied we cannot have full access to the SM because that would give us an advantage that we no longer deserve after departure. Hence, it is not Dan Hannan who has changed his position, it is the EU27 who have clarified theirs. I'm still hopeful that, so long as we can keep J-CJ locked in a cupboard, the grown ups can negotiate a FTA that gives us access to most of the SM.

    Interesting. Might get us membership of the single market and custom unions.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024

    Vote Labour: Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.
    It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?

    It was reasonable to suggest that the UK could keep access to the Single Market, even though we stopped being members of it. The EU27 have since made very clear that the SM and free movement are indivisible and implied we cannot have full access to the SM because that would give us an advantage that we no longer deserve after departure. Hence, it is not Dan Hannan who has changed his position, it is the EU27 who have clarified theirs. I'm still hopeful that, so long as we can keep J-CJ locked in a cupboard, the grown ups can negotiate a FTA that gives us access to most of the SM.

    Interesting. Might get us membership of the single market and custom unions.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024

    Vote Labour: Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.
    It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?
    No I think Hannan was deliberately misleading. What he was saying was true in the sense that you remain in the single market if you carry on selling into it. But you can't get the full benefit if you don't sign up to the full package - which is what you should be considering.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,248
    JamesM said:

    Hi all. Political betting has reeled me back in after a few months away post-EU referendum. It really is the best place for political discussion at big moments. I have even decided to get back in to some campaigning again for the Conservatives. Hope people don't mind me going off topic but I remember a really good discussion, I think last year, about decent mobile phones. Having dropped mine, I am in the market and wondered what people recommended? I want a smart phone but I don't care about all the bells and whistles, prefer value and sturdiness and security. Thanks!

    Hi James, and welcome back. All well?

    Avoid a smart phone. They're very clever for all sorts of things but as a phone, they're useless. The touch operation is far too sensitive and cuts you off regularly mid conversation. On other occasions it's likey to start loading an app you don't want, or phone the speaking clock in Thailand for a day or so.

    I'd get one of the old Nokias that are being made again now (because people are getting fed up with so-called 'smart' phones.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited May 2017

    MTimT said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/telepolitics/status/862652791759577088

    EDIT: Is it just me, or does it look like a volunteer relieving himself against the poster?

    Also, the motion of the poster is not 'holding back' but 'grabbing and pulling forward'
    I have a book on marketing whose example is that there is no difference in a graphic between a man putting money in someone's pocket and stealing it from him.

    Similar point here I think....
    No. If it were holding UK back, Scotland should be leaning forward. If it is pulling, Scotland leans back. Think about braking in a car. When you brake, momentum makes you lean forward, when you accelerate momentum makes you lean back - simple physics.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,150
    edited May 2017
    kle4 said:

    I have a feeling I'll hear this one again:

    https://twitter.com/JosephineCumbo/status/862653461216800768

    Was he a good Pensions minister who would know what he is talking about? Genuine question.
    Yes he knows what he is talking about. He was a well respected academic specializing in this before becoming an MP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914

    kle4 said:

    I have a feeling I'll hear this one again:

    https://twitter.com/JosephineCumbo/status/862653461216800768

    Was he a good Pensions minister who would know what he is talking about? Genuine question.
    He was by far the most important Pensions Minister we have ever had. He was far from perfect but he knew what he was talking about and actually had the time and space to implement a reasonably coherent policy.

    He would have made an infinitely better leader of the Lib Dems than Tim Farron.
    He only just lost in 2015 I see, I'm a bit surprised he didn't retread, as he's barely over 50 it seems.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335

    kle4 said:

    I have a feeling I'll hear this one again:

    https://twitter.com/JosephineCumbo/status/862653461216800768

    Was he a good Pensions minister who would know what he is talking about? Genuine question.
    Yes he knows what he is talking about.
    What are the proposals? Same old triple lock?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,248

    Sandpit said:

    Maybe this has been mentioned, but Corbyn with no seatbelt - was he in a(n unmarked) police car? In which case not illegal.

    But that misses the point, Sandy. Surely he should belt up wherever he is?
    Isn't the protocol, unlike the PM, that he doesnt have a bullet resistant car, so needs to be free of hinderances in emergencies.
    Erm....it was a joke, TSE.

    Tumbleweed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,150
    What's £600bn between comrades....
  • PatrickPatrick Posts: 225
    edited May 2017
    He was by far the most important Pensions Minister we have ever had. He was far from perfect but he knew what he was talking about and actually had the time and space to implement a reasonably coherent policy.

    He would have made an infinitely better leader of the Lib Dems than Tim Farron.

    Yes. Webb's one of the few LibDems who is not a complete tool. He's in the wrong party. Economically sensible politicians are not really welcome on the left.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367

    Sandpit said:

    Maybe this has been mentioned, but Corbyn with no seatbelt - was he in a(n unmarked) police car? In which case not illegal.

    But that misses the point, Sandy. Surely he should belt up wherever he is?
    Isn't the protocol, unlike the PM, that he doesnt have a bullet resistant car, so needs to be free of hinderances in emergencies.
    Erm....it was a joke, TSE.

    Tumbleweed.
    Oops.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,248

    What's £600bn between comrades....

    Peanuts, compared with Brexit.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,917

    nunu said:
    Well, Birmingham has more canals than Venice. It's simple.

    Instead of these ecologically devastating super-sized cargo ships, Labour will introduce a fleet of narrow boats to transport goods around the world. Not only can they get nearer to the destination (preventing having to offload onto trucks), but they can also be horse-powered all the way from China, South America or Australia to here!
    You take the piss, Mr. Jessop, and rightly so. However, I wonder if there is not a nugget of value in encouraging freight back to the canals. Probably the volumes are too large these days but I wonder if there are not some cargos that have to be shifted in bulk and regularly but which are not time critical that could not be successfully be moved by water. It would, probably, be very environmentally friendly if they could.
    I think there are still a few commercial father-and-son type canal operations around, mainly delivering coal and wood to riverside houses and other canal owners. Horse-drawn ones are used in a few places for tourist boats.

    The problems that face narrow canals are the same ones that faced them 200 years ago at the dawn of the railway age: they are slow, limited in capacity, and subject to the vagaries of the weather: a shortage of water in summer, and they have too much water, or are frozen, in winter.
    You are correct of course, and I made some other related points to my post to MR. KLE4 a few minutes ago. I just can't help feeling we are missing a trick here. We have a fantastic network of canals, we have over-crowded roads, the railways are reaching saturation point trying to cope with passenger trade. Dunno, but there is a resource there that is being under utilised.

    P.S. Are you free for early-evening drinkies on the 27th
    I have heard the restoration in the 80s of the Union Canal linking Edinburgh with Glasgow was substantially funded by cable companies who found it the easiest conduit for their trunk cables.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,150
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I have a feeling I'll hear this one again:

    https://twitter.com/JosephineCumbo/status/862653461216800768

    Was he a good Pensions minister who would know what he is talking about? Genuine question.
    He was by far the most important Pensions Minister we have ever had. He was far from perfect but he knew what he was talking about and actually had the time and space to implement a reasonably coherent policy.

    He would have made an infinitely better leader of the Lib Dems than Tim Farron.
    He only just lost in 2015 I see, I'm a bit surprised he didn't retread, as he's barely over 50 it seems.
    He gotta a "proppa job" and this GE has come around 3 years earlier than it should.
  • AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    GE nominations close in about 2 hours 45 mins. How many candidates will UKIP manage to stand?

    I say less than 100, which screws the polls completely.
    Yes, they'd struggle to get more than 3% with 100 candidates.
    They'd need to get pretty near to 20% where they did stand... which is inconceivable. The sub 5% vote market would be free money at any price.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I have a feeling I'll hear this one again:

    https://twitter.com/JosephineCumbo/status/862653461216800768

    Was he a good Pensions minister who would know what he is talking about? Genuine question.
    He was by far the most important Pensions Minister we have ever had. He was far from perfect but he knew what he was talking about and actually had the time and space to implement a reasonably coherent policy.

    He would have made an infinitely better leader of the Lib Dems than Tim Farron.
    He only just lost in 2015 I see, I'm a bit surprised he didn't retread, as he's barely over 50 it seems.
    1-2 looks a good price for the TOries there seeing as they are have 1st time incumbency, a net national shift in the polls and 5000 kipper votes to mine.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Sandpit said:

    Maybe this has been mentioned, but Corbyn with no seatbelt - was he in a(n unmarked) police car? In which case not illegal.

    But that misses the point, Sandy. Surely he should belt up wherever he is?
    Isn't the protocol, unlike the PM, that he doesnt have a bullet resistant car, so needs to be free of hinderances in emergencies.
    No. The chances of being hurt through not being belted in properly as opposed to having to spend an extra second or two releasing a belt in the event of an attack are as 1000 to 1 in normal circumstances. See Princess Diana for an obvious example (the only bloke that survived that crash was the chap who had his seatbelt on). No close protection officer in the UK is going to suggest to his principle travelling without a seat belt, and damn few outside it (and only then in some very special and short term circumstances).
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,648
    rcs1000 said:

    JamesM said:

    Hi all. Political betting has reeled me back in after a few months away post-EU referendum. It really is the best place for political discussion at big moments. I have even decided to get back in to some campaigning again for the Conservatives. Hope people don't mind me going off topic but I remember a really good discussion, I think last year, about decent mobile phones. Having dropped mine, I am in the market and wondered what people recommended? I want a smart phone but I don't care about all the bells and whistles, prefer value and sturdiness and security. Thanks!

    OnePlus Three.
    Seconded.

    The battery life is better than any smartphone I've ever had, rapid charging is brilliant, and the features are comparable to phones at twice the price. Camera is very serviceable too, if you're into such things.
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    edited May 2017
    Thanks all for the suggestions so far.

    I haven't upgrade my phone since getting a hand down from my father. An old Samsung!

    I will take a look at the listed suggestions, although they may be outside my budget. I am tempted my dumping the smart phone. Currently reading a fascinating book called 'Solitude' that is making me re-think my attitude to connectivity (ironic as I post on an addictive website!!). I did look at the new 'old' Nokia but I find I do use a limited number of apps and would missed them.

    Peter, I am good thanks. This GE has got me back interested in politics again. After assisting in a North West England marginal in 2010 I focused on my career after that, but the EU referendum and campaigning for Leave dragged me back in. Now I am West Midlands based so plenty of work to do and potential for the Conservatives!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,526

    It was reasonable to suggest that the UK could keep access to the Single Market, even though we stopped being members of it. The EU27 have since made very clear that the SM and free movement are indivisible and implied we cannot have full access to the SM because that would give us an advantage that we no longer deserve after departure. Hence, it is not Dan Hannan who has changed his position, it is the EU27 who have clarified theirs. I'm still hopeful that, so long as we can keep J-CJ locked in a cupboard, the grown ups can negotiate a FTA that gives us access to most of the SM.

    Interesting. Might get us membership of the single market and custom unions.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024

    Vote Labour: Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.
    It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?

    It was reasonable to suggest that the UK could keep access to the Single Market, even though we stopped being members of it. The EU27 have since made very clear that the SM and free movement are indivisible and implied we cannot have full access to the SM because that would give us an advantage that we no longer deserve after departure. Hence, it is not Dan Hannan who has changed his position, it is the EU27 who have clarified theirs. I'm still hopeful that, so long as we can keep J-CJ locked in a cupboard, the grown ups can negotiate a FTA that gives us access to most of the SM.

    Interesting. Might get us membership of the single market and custom unions.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024

    Vote Labour: Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.
    It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?
    No I think Hannan was deliberately misleading. What he was saying was true in the sense that you remain in the single market if you carry on selling into it. But you can't get the full benefit if you don't sign up to the full package - which is what you should be considering.
    Remember that it was the creation of the single market that pushed Austria, Finland and Sweden into joining the EU, and Norway into the EEA because being outside it had a real economic cost.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,248

    Sandpit said:

    Maybe this has been mentioned, but Corbyn with no seatbelt - was he in a(n unmarked) police car? In which case not illegal.

    But that misses the point, Sandy. Surely he should belt up wherever he is?
    Isn't the protocol, unlike the PM, that he doesnt have a bullet resistant car, so needs to be free of hinderances in emergencies.
    Erm....it was a joke, TSE.

    Tumbleweed.
    Oops.
    Lol! Let's both get our coats.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,459
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    For the many not the few is not a terrible line, although it does feel like a hostage to fortune when (if) the Tories win massively, proving the many are behind them.
    Except..it by definition is wrong and alienating. First because it is identifying a group of people (OK, bankers, fat cats, etc, but a subset of people nevertheless) who it is calling the enemy. And secondly because even if Lab wins there will be substantial minority, millions of people who don't agree with them and they are indirectly telling those people they are part of the "few".
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/telepolitics/status/862652791759577088

    EDIT: Is it just me, or does it look like a volunteer relieving himself against the poster?

    Also, the motion of the poster is not 'holding back' but 'grabbing and pulling forward'
    I have a book on marketing whose example is that there is no difference in a graphic between a man putting money in someone's pocket and stealing it from him.

    Similar point here I think....
    No. If it were holding UK back, Scotland should be leaning forward. If it is pulling, Scotland leans back. Think about braking in a car. When you brake, momentum makes you lean forward, when you accelerate momentum makes you lean back - simple physics.
    Or in Labour's case, "Momentum" makes you go back to the 1970's.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Where will the Cornish nationalist vote go?

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/862658923844825088
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,140
    kle4 said:

    I'm going to go out on a limb and guess UKIP have managed 200+ candidates.

    200 candidates in 36 key constituencies.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Labour have history with uncosted proposals that cost billions. Some of us remember the IMF being called in

    Nick Palmer incidentally can only be speaking to the converted, I don't believe for a minute what he says about TMay, and I'll bet he doesn't either.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    edited May 2017
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    For the many not the few is not a terrible line, although it does feel like a hostage to fortune when (if) the Tories win massively, proving the many are behind them.
    Except..it by definition is wrong and alienating. First because it is identifying a group of people (OK, bankers, fat cats, etc, but a subset of people nevertheless) who it is calling the enemy. And secondly because even if Lab wins there will be substantial minority, millions of people who don't agree with them and they are indirectly telling those people they are part of the "few".
    It's not terrible in terms of appealing to the people it wants to appeal to was what I meant. Being alienating, but not too much, can work sometimes.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,248
    JamesM said:

    Thanks all for the suggestions so far.

    I haven't upgrade my phone since getting a hand down from my father. An old Samsung!

    I will take a look at the listed suggestions, although they may be outside my budget. I am tempted my dumping the smart phone. Currently reading a fascinating book called 'Solitude' that is making me re-think my attitude to connectivity (ironic as I post on an addictive website!!). I did look at the new 'old' Nokia but I find I do use a limited number of apps and would missed them.

    Peter, I am good thanks. This GE has got me back interested in politics again. After assisting in a North West England marginal in 2010 I focused on my career after that, but the EU referendum and campaigning for Leave dragged me back in. Now I am West Midlands based so plenty of work to do and potential for the Conservatives!

    Great to hear. Nice to have you back on board.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    marke09 said:

    totally off topic but sad news
    Geoffrey Bayldon, famous for his role as Catweazle, has died aged 93 according to reports.

    Sandpit said:

    After all the musicians of the 70s and 80s that died last year, seeing the musicians of the 90s die is very weird. Only 47, poor bugger.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/music/news/robert-miles-creator-dance-music-classic-children-has-died-aged/

    Bloody hell, to both. Though I'm almost ashamed to admit that, being too young for Catweazle, I know Bayldon as the Professor from Fort Boyard...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    A new slogan for Labour......
    Reversing together into the future (hat tip the peoples poet)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,038

    It was reasonable to suggest that the UK could keep access to the Single Market, even though we stopped being members of it. The EU27 have since made very clear that the SM and free movement are indivisible and implied we cannot have full access to the SM because that would give us an advantage that we no longer deserve after departure. Hence, it is not Dan Hannan who has changed his position, it is the EU27 who have clarified theirs. I'm still hopeful that, so long as we can keep J-CJ locked in a cupboard, the grown ups can negotiate a FTA that gives us access to most of the SM.

    Interesting. Might get us membership of the single market and custom unions.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024

    Vote Labour: Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.
    It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?

    It was reasonable to suggest that the UK could keep access to the Single Market, even though we stopped being members of it. The EU27 have since made very clear that the SM and free movement are indivisible and implied we cannot have full access to the SM because that would give us an advantage that we no longer deserve after departure. Hence, it is not Dan Hannan who has changed his position, it is the EU27 who have clarified theirs. I'm still hopeful that, so long as we can keep J-CJ locked in a cupboard, the grown ups can negotiate a FTA that gives us access to most of the SM.

    Interesting. Might get us membership of the single market and custom unions.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024

    Vote Labour: Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.
    It's the Dan Hannan Brexit, didn't he say voting Leave wasn't voting to Leave the single market?
    No I think Hannan was deliberately misleading. What he was saying was true in the sense that you remain in the single market if you carry on selling into it. But you can't get the full benefit if you don't sign up to the full package - which is what you should be considering.
    In which case you are wrong. Hannan has long made it clear he is in favour of freedom of movement and would have no problem with that as a 'price' for remaining in the Single Market. The important point for him (and me) was to be outside the ECJ jurisdiction and outside the Customs Union. Exactly what EEX membership via EFTA gives you. I am afraid you have simply misrepresented what he has consistently campaigned for.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130

    JamesM said:

    Hi all. Political betting has reeled me back in after a few months away post-EU referendum. It really is the best place for political discussion at big moments. I have even decided to get back in to some campaigning again for the Conservatives. Hope people don't mind me going off topic but I remember a really good discussion, I think last year, about decent mobile phones. Having dropped mine, I am in the market and wondered what people recommended? I want a smart phone but I don't care about all the bells and whistles, prefer value and sturdiness and security. Thanks!

    If you want sturdiness, I was very tempted by a Cat phone last year. Not necessarily the best value, though.
    http://www.catphones.com/en-gb/
    But if you spend your life on building sites, it's easily the best value as it will cope with being dropped in the dirt and the sand. Popular among the O&G workers in the sandpit.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,248

    Where will the Cornish nationalist vote go?

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/862658923844825088

    Lying buggers. They were down the pub.

    Very sensible.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    scotslass said:

    SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

    SNP 45.0% (+2.2)
    Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2)
    Labour 15.8% (-0.7)
    Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)

    (The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)

    STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.

    Damn, if that is right the LDs are doing almost as bad in Scotland as they are in Wales, and Scotland is where they hope to make quite a few gains. SNP is a bit high for my liking too. Oh well.
    The Lib Dem vote is going to concentrate in only a few seats in Scotland.
    I know, but I find it amazing they are so densely concentrated that their Scotland wide score is so low (even though generally higher than the 4.8 above).
    They only got 5% of the regional vote in the 2016 Holyroods, but tactical voting took that up to 7% in the constituencies. And that got them two gains and a nearly.
    Scotland looks by far the brightest spot to the Lib Dems to me.

    The Labour manifesto is going down very well amongst my left wing facebook friends. With the exception of Cambridge Lib/Lab battlegrounds will be bloody hard work. Maybe just Bermondsey & Cambridge in all honesty.
    Hornsey & Wood Green is apparently seeing a lot of LD activity (and negligible Labour). Can't see it myself, but there you go.
    Catherine West is a big Remainer.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    FF43 said:

    nunu said:
    Well, Birmingham has more canals than Venice. It's simple.

    Instead of these ecologically devastating super-sized cargo ships, Labour will introduce a fleet of narrow boats to transport goods around the world. Not only can they get nearer to the destination (preventing having to offload onto trucks), but they can also be horse-powered all the way from China, South America or Australia to here!
    You take the piss, Mr. Jessop, and rightly so. However, I wonder if there is not a nugget of value in encouraging freight back to the canals. Probably the volumes are too large these days but I wonder if there are not some cargos that have to be shifted in bulk and regularly but which are not time critical that could not be successfully be moved by water. It would, probably, be very environmentally friendly if they could.
    I think there are still a few commercial father-and-son type canal operations around, mainly delivering coal and wood to riverside houses and other canal owners. Horse-drawn ones are used in a few places for tourist boats.

    The problems that face narrow canals are the same ones that faced them 200 years ago at the dawn of the railway age: they are slow, limited in capacity, and subject to the vagaries of the weather: a shortage of water in summer, and they have too much water, or are frozen, in winter.
    You are correct of course, and I made some other related points to my post to MR. KLE4 a few minutes ago. I just can't help feeling we are missing a trick here. We have a fantastic network of canals, we have over-crowded roads, the railways are reaching saturation point trying to cope with passenger trade. Dunno, but there is a resource there that is being under utilised.

    P.S. Are you free for early-evening drinkies on the 27th
    I have heard the restoration in the 80s of the Union Canal linking Edinburgh with Glasgow was substantially funded by cable companies who found it the easiest conduit for their trunk cables.
    That happened all over, Mr. 43. The canals provided a very cheap route for people to lay cable. Not quite the same thing though as using the canals to take goods away from the roads and the railways.

    Mind you in the digital age perhaps the canals providing the route for cables actually means that their contribution to the economy is even larger than it was in their heighday. Something to think about.

    P.S. The canals are a nationalised resource.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Where will the Cornish nationalist vote go?

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/862658923844825088

    I'm not sure they will ever top out polling Labour in the Euros. Good old MK
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm going to go out on a limb and guess UKIP have managed 200+ candidates.

    200 candidates in 36 key constituencies.
    I think they'll have closer to 36 than 200 candidates.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I have a feeling I'll hear this one again:

    https://twitter.com/JosephineCumbo/status/862653461216800768

    Was he a good Pensions minister who would know what he is talking about? Genuine question.
    He was by far the most important Pensions Minister we have ever had. He was far from perfect but he knew what he was talking about and actually had the time and space to implement a reasonably coherent policy.

    He would have made an infinitely better leader of the Lib Dems than Tim Farron.
    He only just lost in 2015 I see, I'm a bit surprised he didn't retread, as he's barely over 50 it seems.
    He'd had the best part of 20 years as an MP, and done the job he always wanted in the last few of those. Why come back to sit as a backbencher for a party that has a long road to recovery and is clear that it won't be a coalition partner for anyone any time soon?

    Life's too short and there's too much else to do. I'm not saying it's a fool's errand, but it's perfectly understandable to call it a day and leave it to others to take it on. In a way the retreads are admirable for being knocked down and getting up again, but it isn't actually necessary in order to be well remembered as a good MP.

    Shame for the LDs though, as he would have had a decent chance of winning whereas I very much doubt it for his successor.

  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Comments worth reading at https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/john-mcternan-labours-draft-manifesto-is-just-appalling/

    Including
    "BREAKING - PROJECT FEAR IS DEAD;
    Mr Barnier said the EU wants the negotiations with the UK to succeed.
    "We will need to negotiate a 'bold and ambitious', but fair, FREE-TRADE AGREEMENT," he said.
    http://disq.us/url?url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39873618:5QryGi2LpWFV2ktZdRH9VLBZTro&cuid=3812684
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,150
    Nadhim Zahawi tells Guido he is lawyering up:

    “This allegation is a libel and I will be consulting my lawyer.

    Too many tweets.....
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Re the joke manifesto

    Take a look at this

    https://capx.co/labours-manifesto-takes-the-voters-for-fools/

  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Will pollsters amend their methodology now to point out to interviewees when there is no Ukip or Green candidate standing?

    Looking at the betting, above evens for Labour to get 25-30.0% looks good, but clearly if there's a lot of seats with a shortage of candidates it's an important factor in estimating other parties' vote share.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335
    Dadge said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    scotslass said:

    SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

    SNP 45.0% (+2.2)
    Conservatives 31.5% (+2.2)
    Labour 15.8% (-0.7)
    Liberal Democrats 4.8% (-2.2)

    (The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)

    STRIKES ME AS A SENSIBLE WAY TO DEAL WITH SUB SAMPLES FOR SCOTLAND - note these figures are before YouGov this morning suggesting 46 SNP -26 TORY.

    Damn, if that is right the LDs are doing almost as bad in Scotland as they are in Wales, and Scotland is where they hope to make quite a few gains. SNP is a bit high for my liking too. Oh well.
    The Lib Dem vote is going to concentrate in only a few seats in Scotland.
    I know, but I find it amazing they are so densely concentrated that their Scotland wide score is so low (even though generally higher than the 4.8 above).
    They only got 5% of the regional vote in the 2016 Holyroods, but tactical voting took that up to 7% in the constituencies. And that got them two gains and a nearly.
    Scotland looks by far the brightest spot to the Lib Dems to me.

    The Labour manifesto is going down very well amongst my left wing facebook friends. With the exception of Cambridge Lib/Lab battlegrounds will be bloody hard work. Maybe just Bermondsey & Cambridge in all honesty.
    Hornsey & Wood Green is apparently seeing a lot of LD activity (and negligible Labour). Can't see it myself, but there you go.
    Catherine West is a big Remainer.
    i'm on LD for Hornsey.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,150
    edited May 2017
    Floater said:
    "I’ve spent the morning going through the full text of the thing, and I can’t for the life of me see how the numbers add up – even with Diane Abbott doing the maths."

    All they have done for this manifesto is written down everything Jezza has believed in for past 40 years, then is gone through polling, picked all the stuff that gets positives before phoning the unions putting in their suggestions.

    The fact it doesn't add up is a mere inconvenience.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Blue_rog said:

    BoE revises growth to 1.9%

    And warned they may need to raise rates.
    You do realise rates are artificially low don't you?

    Actually, forget I asked.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,526
    Floater said:

    Blue_rog said:

    BoE revises growth to 1.9%

    And warned they may need to raise rates.
    You do realise rates are artificially low don't you?

    Actually, forget I asked.
    You do realise that it's thanks to that fools' paradise that people felt able to take a risk on Brexit, don't you?

    It won't last. There are bad times just around the corner, and they will be hung on the Brexit decision.
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    I don't think the vast majority of the public will care about the Labour manifesto being leaked, this is just media fodder for all those journalists who have too much time on their hands.

    I lived through the 70's and this country was in a very dire state, but of course young people who haven't experienced the damage socialism can do, will no doubt be very tempted to vote for Corbyn.

  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Floater said:

    Blue_rog said:

    BoE revises growth to 1.9%

    And warned they may need to raise rates.
    You do realise rates are artificially low don't you?

    Actually, forget I asked.
    You do realise that it's thanks to that fools' paradise that people felt able to take a risk on Brexit, don't you?

    It won't last. There are bad times just around the corner, and they will be hung on the Brexit decision.
    How come we never see any betting posts from you?

    With your cast iron certainty about the future, anything you tip should be nailed on.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,526
    edited May 2017

    Floater said:

    Blue_rog said:

    BoE revises growth to 1.9%

    And warned they may need to raise rates.
    You do realise rates are artificially low don't you?

    Actually, forget I asked.
    You do realise that it's thanks to that fools' paradise that people felt able to take a risk on Brexit, don't you?

    It won't last. There are bad times just around the corner, and they will be hung on the Brexit decision.
    How come we never see any betting posts from you?

    With your cast iron certainty about the future, anything you tip should be nailed on.
    This was my prediction before the US election. I hope you profited handsomely.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/LLLby
This discussion has been closed.