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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the election draws closer LAB leader Corbyn is seeing a boo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the election draws closer LAB leader Corbyn is seeing a boost in his “Best Prime Minister” ratings
Of all the ratings that are made of leaders the one I have least doubts about his who would make the best Prime Minister. Quite simply the incumbent generally gets a huge boost simply because they are in the post and the opposition leader isn’t.
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https://twitter.com/BetfairExchange/status/862624388750987265
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/862615424856449024
Assuming we haven't left the EU by the time of the entry into Number 10 of JCICIPM, will EU law allow the execution of the fullness of his glorious manifesto?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias
As you say, his leadership score is still terrible, as is the Labour overall score should the Tory one be accurate, but relatively Lab are picking up.
And I blame the LDs for that personally. Bullcrap. They weren't going to do anything, then whinged about it off the record. Again.
I reckon 475+ seats for the Tories is more likely than Jezza winning.
For the many in my Twitter/Facebook groupings, not the few who aren't?
For the many who want to come here, not the few who were born here?
(Edit: I mean, Corbyn's people surely need an accountant (at least) to check their numbers, no?)
If you convince yourself that you will vote Labour, you have to convince yourself that Corbyn is PM material.
It's evident that some Labour waverers are moving back to him.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/agmdwosoqz/YG Trackers - Best Prime Minister.pdf
I predict a complete breakaway of Welsh Labour shortly...
If you've bet on Labour sub 20% then you've got a losing bet I'm afraid.
April 21-22 40 26
April 07-08 40 24
March 24-25 39 21
March 10-11 39 21
February 24-25 38 19
February 10-11 36 18
January 27-28 39 20
January 13-14 37 19
Month - Date - DC - Ed
'Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market'
Brave. Very brave.
All the extensions of Public Ownership likely to be proposed by Labour in its manifesto relate to industries which were still in state hands in 1983 – and in the case of the railways and Royal Mail remained so until 1997 and 2012 respectively. It is a very different scenario to the ultra left1983 manifesto which wished to nationalize industries that never belonged to the Public Sector.
27% feels about right.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/evan-davis-newsnight-bbc-daniel-hannan-mep-eu-referendum-brexit_uk_576e2967e4b08d2c56393241
Note to Corbyn and team: this isn't going away, and it's going to be harder get nastier every day from now until June 8th.
https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/862587849912311808
https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/862570305717493760
Do you want the strong and stable leadership of Theresa May and the Conservatives, who have a proven track record in taking the difficult decisions needed to keep our country safe?
Or do you want a weak and floundering Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street, a man who cannot say if he would authorise a strike to kill the leader of Islamic State - a terrorist group that wants to destroy us?
But that's all dead cat bounce to a degree - he was so low it was hard to go lower. I am very, very surprised by some polls putting him on a par with Miliband in 2015 in terms of vote share, even with the UKIP collapse and lacklustre campaigns from all other parties. It just doesn't square with my door knocking, albeit in a seat Labour isn't contesting seriously.
No matter, if you think Corbyn has the right answer on the EU question then perhaps you should vote for him, and accept all the other stuff that would come with him winning.
Hannan has been pretty consistent in that he wanted us to join EFTA, which allows free movement of workers. He has always been at odds with the "official" Leave campaign on that, which has caused him some embarrassment, but I've never seen him say we should stay in the EEA.
*I think the difference would be CON on 36 and CON on 46ish. Big difference.
*I'm commenting on the increase. In absolute terms, Corbyn is about 5 % behind Ed throughout.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/open-britain-video-single-market-nigel-farage-anna-soubry_uk_582ce0a0e4b09025ba310fce
I suspect you did not understand my point.
Instead we got "Vote Labour, win a microwave".
We then had aspiring party leaders who offered more of the same, and Corbyn offering something different - obvious outcome.
The last two years has had the effect of returning Labour to being an apologetically Socialist party. We are not going back to some sort of neo-New Labour. Now all we need is a leader who the voters see as their next PM, and starting in 2022 we might just be able to transform the country.
(Sorry, I can't hang around to see your derision in response to the above)
this will not translate into seats.
But I do have a terribly ominous feeling. There has been a lot of cheap credit to keep things going, inflation is clearly heading up to some degree and interest rates may need to respond, the uncertainty over Brexit negotiations cannot help inward investment. Meanwhile, the deficit is stubbornly high and there's little or nothing spare to play with.
I hope I'm wrong. I often have been in the past. But I do worry we're much closer to a cliff edge than is commonly perceived.
2016
May: 49
Corbyn: 18
2017 to date:
May: 49
Corbyn: 16
'Strong & Stable' springs, unbidden, to mind.....
http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/labour-not-corbyn
The guy has been talking about EFTA for over 20 years and doesn't have a problem with free movement.
If you want to attack him for inconsistency attack him for that, whilst being on the Board of Vote Leave.
microwaveowl.Fixed it for you.
January when he was on 16: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bfe1jtcki8/TimesResults_170124_VI_Trackers_W.pdf
The drift in the subsets is some firming up of the 2015 Lab vote (consistent with Wales/London polls) and some shift from Lib Dems to Lab.
He's made no progress with 2015 Tory/Kipper voters.
"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Manchester, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!
"A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"
And STILL no owls
I said it the other day, but it might yet be a "good one to lose" if it's less of an horrific blow out than many in Labour fear, but clear enough that Corbyn has to go.
"Good one to lose" is in inverted commas because there are no good ones to lose, only less bad ones.
Leader doing well/badly - net well:
2017 to date:
May: +21
Corbyn: -55
2016
May: +24
Corbyn: -35
I think.
A very deceptive video by REMAIN, but then again that was their whole campaign.
That's £2K less leaflet money for Momentum come the next leadership election this summer. Keep it up kids!