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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The poll finding that sums up GE2017 & why it’ll be a CON landslide. 67% of Welsh UKIP voters have moved to CON
There is so much General Election polling in coming out at the moment but sometimes it is quite useful just focusing on one small number in a much smaller sampling area.
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First?
Ha! Despite a toddler wanting to look at pictures of Stonehenge on my laptop!0 -
Blimey!!0
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Third
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Fourth like ukip0
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Did the rail line from Bidston (on the Wirral) to Wrecsam Canalog a couple of weeks ago.0
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The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.
That's the mother and father of all shellackings we're headed for, if the polling is right.
I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???0 -
PB Tories 4 Corbyn?TheScreamingEagles said:The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.
That's the mother and father of all shellackings we're headed for, if the polling is right.
I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???0 -
The most worrying split here for Labour isn't the 67% going to Con, it's the fact they're only getting 4%. 78% of the UKIP vote is split out here, so when they don't stand a candidate it'll be
.67/.78 =
85.9% to CON
5.1% to Labour
With Plaid and the Lib Dems picking up 4 or 5% of the old vote still.0 -
People disappointed by the Tories and want to punish them.TheScreamingEagles said:
I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???
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Sexists?TheScreamingEagles said:The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.
That's the mother and father of all shellackings we're headed for, if the polling is right.
I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???
Largely the same as the #SaveEd DUEMA I would have thought?RobD said:
PB Tories 4 Corbyn?TheScreamingEagles said:The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.
That's the mother and father of all shellackings we're headed for, if the polling is right.
I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???0 -
10% is not all that much by the standards of past landslides. In 1997, I think it was 20-25% of Tory voters migrating to Labour. I'd be pretty sure 1979 saw a bigger Lab->Con migration too (though Labour limited the damage that year by recovering some of their losses to the Liberals and SNP).TheScreamingEagles said:The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.
That's the mother and father of all shellackings we're headed for, if the polling is right.
I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???
As the thread header says, what's really causing the polling figures is the massive shift from UKIP.0 -
Every time I think Labour might be rallying a tiny bit in the polls, along comes Corbyn to ruin even that miniscule chink of light. He truly is a 24 carat moron.
The way to derail Corbyn - ask him a question.0 -
I've got it.kle4 said:
People disappointed by the Tories and want to punish them.TheScreamingEagles said:
I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???
It is the Tories pissed off with Mrs May for sacking George Osborne.0 -
The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.0
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In Wales?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've got it.kle4 said:
People disappointed by the Tories and want to punish them.TheScreamingEagles said:
I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???
It is the Tories pissed off with Mrs May for sacking George Osborne.
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Tissue_Price said:
Don Valley Update
Hello everyone, and thanks for the many messages of support both on here and via other communication channels! Canvassing has been encouraging so far though there is a 9,000 vote mountain to climb.
A number of you have asked how to help or donate...
Help - locally or phone canvassing: sign-up here
Donate: via Crowdfunder here: http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/aaron-bell-for-don-valley
If you are considering donating over £100 please let me know privately and we can take it via BACS. All donations over £50 will be checked against the electoral roll for eligibility.
For updates follow me on Twitter or like my Facebook page.
Thanks again.0 -
Good luck @Tissue_Price!
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George Osborne is a pound shop Derek Jameson!!TheScreamingEagles said:
I've got it.kle4 said:
People disappointed by the Tories and want to punish them.TheScreamingEagles said:
I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???
It is the Tories pissed off with Mrs May for sacking George Osborne.0 -
Look at the Did Not Vote column for Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.
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That'll explain why its only 2%.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've got it.kle4 said:
People disappointed by the Tories and want to punish them.TheScreamingEagles said:
I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???
It is the Tories pissed off with Mrs May for sacking George Osborne.
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Like I've been saying, in our canvassing, the LibDem vote melted away completely after the first few days.Pulpstar said:The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.
I just don't know how much of that is down to it being a Lab-Con marginal, and whether it would be different in seats where the Lib Dems have a chance.0 -
Minor setback for the ‘Progressive Alliance’ Caroline Lucas abandons plan and...
Steve Williams @SteveWil
The Godalming Three... Thrown out of Labour Party for trying to unseat Jeremy Hunt!
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In my best Sidious impression... "goood... goooooood"SimonStClare said:Minor setback for the ‘Progressive Alliance’ Caroline Lucas abandons plan and...
Steve Williams @SteveWil
The Godalming Three... Thrown out of Labour Party for trying to unseat Jeremy Hunt! 0 -
It's not at all surprising that some go against the tide. If your Mum has a bad experience in hospital, say, it suddenly focusses your mind on NHS funding for instance, and you might think Corbyn would spend more. All sorts of perfectly credible reasons.TheScreamingEagles said:
I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???0 -
And how much of this election is the LibDems being marginal to the entire Cons shellack Lab narrative. Despite the Labour debacle, if one were just to listen to the buzz, it would seem as if we are returning to two party politics.Danny565 said:
Like I've been saying, in our canvassing, the LibDem vote melted away completely after the first few days.Pulpstar said:The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.
I just don't know how much of that is down to it being a Lab-Con marginal, and whether it would be different in seats where the Lib Dems have a chance.0 -
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Gresham's Law of extremism in actionTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.0
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Ooh, that's a good spot.AlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
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Further bad news for moderate Islam. Former Christian Jakarta Governor jailed for blasphemy for suggesting that it is not against the Koran for a Muslim to vote for a Christian.0
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I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.AlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-397551770 -
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I've not backed Plaid anywhere at allAlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
And have a fair few bets a'gin. 0 -
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I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !kle4 said:
I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.AlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.0 -
we are returning to one party politics.MTimT said:
And how much of this election is the LibDems being marginal to the entire Cons shellack Lab narrative. Despite the Labour debacle, if one were just to listen to the buzz, it would seem as if we are returning to two party politics.Danny565 said:
Like I've been saying, in our canvassing, the LibDem vote melted away completely after the first few days.Pulpstar said:The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.
I just don't know how much of that is down to it being a Lab-Con marginal, and whether it would be different in seats where the Lib Dems have a chance.0 -
what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.
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What I'd like to say about Neil Hamilton is mostly unprintable.Pulpstar said:
I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !kle4 said:
I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.AlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.
He won't miss an opportunity to screw over his former party.0 -
They seem on the face of it to be doing worse in Wales than anywhere else.paulyork64 said:what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.
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Mr. Eagles, ... that's even more out there than the football bus attack.
Mr. T, that's deeply depressing.0 -
Well Wales voted Leave and Lib Dems current USP might not appeal.kle4 said:
They seem on the face of it to be doing worse in Wales than anywhere else.paulyork64 said:what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.
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That should boost the Tories there. Is Llanelli likely to vote Tory?kle4 said:
I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.AlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
"In the Llanelli area there was apparently a majority of around 10,000 in favour of leave."
"Carmarthen West wards were apparently 55%-45% in favour of leaving the EU, while Carmarthen East and Dinefwr was more pro-remain."0 -
It really does take a special kind of Tory to lose in Wilmslow and Alderley Edge !Pulpstar said:
I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !kle4 said:
I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.AlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.0 -
is it that leave/remain thing again?kle4 said:
They seem on the face of it to be doing worse in Wales than anywhere else.paulyork64 said:what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.
I'm on a Lab hold in Cardiff Central. LDs are still favs but not for me.0 -
Havard Hughes is local, but looking at his twitter feed I don't think he speaks Welsh, or at least, not very well. That may be a handicap in that seat.AlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru...might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
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Labour candidate Kate Hoey shared an image in which her Liberal Democrat challenger was apparently removed from a picture taken at an event in south London.
Ms Hoey is standing to be re-elected in the south London constituency she has held since 1989. She appeared today in a photo on Twitter where an crude effort had been made to erase rival Lib Dem candidate George Turner.
Eagle-eyed viewers noticed that Mr Turner's legs could be seen in the back row of Brexit supporter Ms Hoey’s photo. However his face and upper body had vanished.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/vauxhall-labours-kate-hoey-cuts-lib-dem-rival-candidate-out-of-photo-but-forgets-to-edit-out-his-a3534471.html0 -
Yes they have little to offer now in Wales. Tories now for all the brexiteers, Labour haven't lost their votes in the same way as Slab because there is no equivalent independence issue, and Plaid offers a non-toxic repository (compared to a unionist voting SNP) for those who don't want to vote labour or tory. The LDs also performed far worse in Wales in the 2016 assembly than they did in the Holyrood parliament, where they seem to be having a minor comeback through tactical unionist voting.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well Wales voted Leave and Lib Dems current USP might not appeal.kle4 said:
They seem on the face of it to be doing worse in Wales than anywhere else.paulyork64 said:what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.
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But in both the examples you refer to the big shift was from the party in Government. It is much more difficult to achieve that for a party that has already been in office for 7 years.Danny565 said:
10% is not all that much by the standards of past landslides. In 1997, I think it was 20-25% of Tory voters migrating to Labour. I'd be pretty sure 1979 saw a bigger Lab->Con migration too (though Labour limited the damage that year by recovering some of their losses to the Liberals and SNP).TheScreamingEagles said:The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.
That's the mother and father of all shellackings we're headed for, if the polling is right.
I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???
As the thread header says, what's really causing the polling figures is the massive shift from UKIP.0 -
Or his current one.TheScreamingEagles said:
What I'd like to say about Neil Hamilton is mostly unprintable.Pulpstar said:
I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !kle4 said:
I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.AlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.
He won't miss an opportunity to screw over his former party.0 -
In addition to the "shy" factor, wholly or in large part attributed to the Tories and generally reckoned to have been worth around 2% in each of the last two elections, there's also the "I want to vote for the winning side" factor , which has been evident in any number of elections, not simply limited to the UK. Does anyone know what this is reckoned to be worth in terms of votes or seats?0
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I have 2 pounds on Tories over 500 seats. Obviously nearly impossible, it's an insurance in case all assumptions are wrong and this turns out to be 2015 on steroids, but can anyone think of a plausible route for it to happen? It would probably need tories over 50% of vote, Labour losing a bunch of votes to LDs due to anti-Corbyn factor, but these votes largely proving useless and letting Tories through the middle. Would also need strong anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland, and UKIP to stand down in almost all tory targets. I think the highest seat total ever was the 1931 election, where the tories won 470, so in theory it's not inconceivable...0
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Roger Scully has written that Ynys Mon would flip into the Tory column, assuming UNS based on the latest Welsh Barometer results. It would be one of nine Welsh Labour seats to go over to the Conservatives, making them the largest party in Wales at Westminster level. Plaid and the Lib Dems are predicted to tread water.AlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
The full list of seats which it is suggested would change hands on this basis is: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff West, Clwyd South, Delyn, Newport East, Newport West, Wrexham, and Ynys Mon. Five of these register as notionally Conservative if you reward half of the 2015 Ukip vote to the party, with another three seats becoming highly marginal on that basis. Only Cardiff West looks somewhat more ambitious: it's 77th on the overall Conservative target list, and the Tories would need to attract both Ukip voters and a sizeable swing directly from Labour to take it.0 -
Well over 50% to get 500.Paristonda said:I have 2 pounds on Tories over 500 seats. Obviously nearly impossible, it's an insurance in case all assumptions are wrong and this turns out to be 2015 on steroids, but can anyone think of a plausible route for it to happen? It would probably need tories over 50% of vote, Labour losing a bunch of votes to LDs due to anti-Corbyn factor, but these votes largely proving useless and letting Tories through the middle. Would also need strong anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland, and UKIP to stand down in almost all tory targets. I think the highest seat total ever was the 1931 election, where the tories won 470, so in theory it's not inconceivable...
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I haven't seen many mocking comments in the past few days about TMay hiding from the public - has she been doing more public stuff, or did people get bored of pointing it out?
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Aren't Plaid a little bit too "left" for most Tories, compared to (say) the Lib Dems?Paristonda said:
Yes they have little to offer now in Wales. Tories now for all the brexiteers, Labour haven't lost their votes in the same way as Slab because there is no equivalent independence issue, and Plaid offers a non-toxic repository (compared to a unionist voting SNP) for those who don't want to vote labour or tory. The LDs also performed far worse in Wales in the 2016 assembly than they did in the Holyrood parliament, where they seem to be having a minor comeback through tactical unionist voting.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well Wales voted Leave and Lib Dems current USP might not appeal.kle4 said:
They seem on the face of it to be doing worse in Wales than anywhere else.paulyork64 said:what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.
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Labour were nervous about Cardiff West last time. It's increasingly affluent commuter country (because houses are cheap and the nearby countryside is stunningly beautiful). Could be Wales' answer to Cannock 2010, with an above-average swing following rapid demographic change.Black_Rook said:
Roger Scully has written that Ynys Mon would flip into the Tory column, assuming UNS based on the latest Welsh Barometer results. It would be one of nine Welsh Labour seats to go over to the Conservatives, making them the largest party in Wales at Westminster level. Plaid and the Lib Dems are predicted to tread water.AlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
The full list of seats which it is suggested would change hands on this basis is: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff West, Clwyd South, Delyn, Newport East, Newport West, Wrexham, and Ynys Mon. Five of these register as notionally Conservative if you reward half of the 2015 Ukip vote to the party, with another three seats becoming highly marginal on that basis. Only Cardiff West looks somewhat more ambitious: it's 77th on the overall Conservative target list, and the Tories would need to attract both Ukip voters and a sizeable swing directly from Labour to take it.0 -
It's very hard to find something to like about Neil Hamilton.TheScreamingEagles said:
What I'd like to say about Neil Hamilton is mostly unprintable.Pulpstar said:
I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !kle4 said:
I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.AlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.
He won't miss an opportunity to screw over his former party.0 -
What ..... you mean they're even left of Vince Cable who tells his lot to vote Labour?Disraeli said:
Aren't Plaid a little bit too "left" for most Tories, compared to (say) the Lib Dems?Paristonda said:
Yes they have little to offer now in Wales. Tories now for all the brexiteers, Labour haven't lost their votes in the same way as Slab because there is no equivalent independence issue, and Plaid offers a non-toxic repository (compared to a unionist voting SNP) for those who don't want to vote labour or tory. The LDs also performed far worse in Wales in the 2016 assembly than they did in the Holyrood parliament, where they seem to be having a minor comeback through tactical unionist voting.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well Wales voted Leave and Lib Dems current USP might not appeal.kle4 said:
They seem on the face of it to be doing worse in Wales than anywhere else.paulyork64 said:what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.
Happy birthday Vince who is 74 today!0 -
This is a factor I've never understood. Not denying it exists, only scratching my head as to why? It seems to imply that the only opinion that motivates you is the need to be on the winning side. Never mind the policies, feel the triumph. ?????peter_from_putney said:In addition to the "shy" factor, wholly or in large part attributed to the Tories and generally reckoned to have been worth around 2% in each of the last two elections, there's also the "I want to vote for the winning side" factor , which has been evident in any number of elections, not simply limited to the UK. Does anyone know what this is reckoned to be worth in terms of votes or seats?
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Rehabilitation. You must be proud that he's now a productive member of society.isam said:0 -
Just over 55 might do it if Lab were to drop to around 20 and big gains were made in Scotland, and the LDs stood still?RobD said:
Well over 50% to get 500.Paristonda said:I have 2 pounds on Tories over 500 seats. Obviously nearly impossible, it's an insurance in case all assumptions are wrong and this turns out to be 2015 on steroids, but can anyone think of a plausible route for it to happen? It would probably need tories over 50% of vote, Labour losing a bunch of votes to LDs due to anti-Corbyn factor, but these votes largely proving useless and letting Tories through the middle. Would also need strong anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland, and UKIP to stand down in almost all tory targets. I think the highest seat total ever was the 1931 election, where the tories won 470, so in theory it's not inconceivable...
Let's call it unlikely.
I'm still on Tories below 400.0 -
They're up from 8% to 10-11% in the polls, so presumably they've got 25-35% more votes accruing somewhere.Danny565 said:
Like I've been saying, in our canvassing, the LibDem vote melted away completely after the first few days.Pulpstar said:The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.
I just don't know how much of that is down to it being a Lab-Con marginal, and whether it would be different in seats where the Lib Dems have a chance.0 -
Plaid are a very broad coalition. Ieuan Wyn Jones and Elin Mary Jones are I would say to the right of Theresa May and Dafydd Elis Thomas formerly of that parish was further right than that. Equally you have Leanne Wood is an unabashed socialist and people like Mark Strong in Ceredigion who joined Plaid as far as I can judge because he thinks the Greens are far too soft on social issues (nice guy, good town councillor).Disraeli said:
Aren't Plaid a little bit too "left" for most Tories, compared to (say) the Lib Dems?Paristonda said:
Yes they have little to offer now in Wales. Tories now for all the brexiteers, Labour haven't lost their votes in the same way as Slab because there is no equivalent independence issue, and Plaid offers a non-toxic repository (compared to a unionist voting SNP) for those who don't want to vote labour or tory. The LDs also performed far worse in Wales in the 2016 assembly than they did in the Holyrood parliament, where they seem to be having a minor comeback through tactical unionist voting.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well Wales voted Leave and Lib Dems current USP might not appeal.kle4 said:
They seem on the face of it to be doing worse in Wales than anywhere else.paulyork64 said:what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.
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Your best bet there is Con Majority +300 on BF exchange, where you can get up to £15 at 100. I have a few quid on it, purely as insurance - I don't believe for an instant it's going to happen, but if Labour fall below their 120 seat firewall anything is possible.Paristonda said:I have 2 pounds on Tories over 500 seats. Obviously nearly impossible, it's an insurance in case all assumptions are wrong and this turns out to be 2015 on steroids, but can anyone think of a plausible route for it to happen? It would probably need tories over 50% of vote, Labour losing a bunch of votes to LDs due to anti-Corbyn factor, but these votes largely proving useless and letting Tories through the middle. Would also need strong anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland, and UKIP to stand down in almost all tory targets. I think the highest seat total ever was the 1931 election, where the tories won 470, so in theory it's not inconceivable...
It's extraordinary to even think that a few quid of insurance on this possibility is even necessary, but I think it's a wise move. A couple of quid buys a lot of peace of mind.0 -
If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.0 -
He picked a good strong wife, who is still probably a Tory deep down?Casino_Royale said:
It's very hard to find something to like about Neil Hamilton.TheScreamingEagles said:
What I'd like to say about Neil Hamilton is mostly unprintable.Pulpstar said:
I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !kle4 said:
I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.AlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.
He won't miss an opportunity to screw over his former party.0 -
Anecdote alert, but was delivering to a very Labour-LibDem former council estate today. A lady came out, tore my leaflet up and put it in the recycling. We had an amiable chat. Turns out she used to leaflet for the LibDems, big orange diamond in the garden. No more. She isn't voting.rcs1000 said:
They're up from 8% to 10-11% in the polls, so presumably they've got 25-35% more votes accruing somewhere.Danny565 said:
Like I've been saying, in our canvassing, the LibDem vote melted away completely after the first few days.Pulpstar said:The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.
I just don't know how much of that is down to it being a Lab-Con marginal, and whether it would be different in seats where the Lib Dems have a chance.
EDIT: I should add, in Torbay0 -
I would have thought given the enormous damage he has done to UKIP in Wales in twelve short months that most Tories would love him againCasino_Royale said:
It's very hard to find something to like about Neil Hamilton.TheScreamingEagles said:
What I'd like to say about Neil Hamilton is mostly unprintable.Pulpstar said:
I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !kle4 said:
I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.AlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.
He won't miss an opportunity to screw over his former party.
0 -
But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.0 -
LDs need to put all their energies into Remain constituencies IMO. OWAB and Cheadle, even though the majorities aren't particularly small in those examples.0
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Thanks.kyf_100 said:
Your best bet there is Con Majority +300 on BF exchange, where you can get up to £15 at 100. I have a few quid on it, purely as insurance - I don't believe for an instant it's going to happen, but if Labour fall below their 120 seat firewall anything is possible.Paristonda said:I have 2 pounds on Tories over 500 seats. Obviously nearly impossible, it's an insurance in case all assumptions are wrong and this turns out to be 2015 on steroids, but can anyone think of a plausible route for it to happen? It would probably need tories over 50% of vote, Labour losing a bunch of votes to LDs due to anti-Corbyn factor, but these votes largely proving useless and letting Tories through the middle. Would also need strong anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland, and UKIP to stand down in almost all tory targets. I think the highest seat total ever was the 1931 election, where the tories won 470, so in theory it's not inconceivable...
It's extraordinary to even think that a few quid of insurance on this possibility is even necessary, but I think it's a wise move. A couple of quid buys a lot of peace of mind.
That's ridiculous when Tory seats 450-499 is at 9.6 to lay. 300 seat majority is "Only" 475 seats !0 -
Of course it does.peter_from_putney said:
But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
What percentage of the registered vote will the named party receive in the UK as a whole, at the next UK general election?0 -
Bit of a May love-in going on on the One Show. 0
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By "the LibDem vote melted away", I meant switchers from 2015 Labour over to LDs. We were finding quite a few a while ago, hardly any now.rcs1000 said:
They're up from 8% to 10-11% in the polls, so presumably they've got 25-35% more votes accruing somewhere.Danny565 said:
Like I've been saying, in our canvassing, the LibDem vote melted away completely after the first few days.Pulpstar said:The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.
I just don't know how much of that is down to it being a Lab-Con marginal, and whether it would be different in seats where the Lib Dems have a chance.0 -
0
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Perhaps this time it is more "I don't want to vote for the loser...."? Jeremy Corbyn has loser written all over him. Even Albania gave up on socialism. Not Jeremy.peter_from_putney said:In addition to the "shy" factor, wholly or in large part attributed to the Tories and generally reckoned to have been worth around 2% in each of the last two elections, there's also the "I want to vote for the winning side" factor , which has been evident in any number of elections, not simply limited to the UK. Does anyone know what this is reckoned to be worth in terms of votes or seats?
And all those LibDem "Winning here!" signs are looking less optimistic and more a downright lie.0 -
From a very neutral source.Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism 0 -
Whoa, steady. That needs checking. We are the UK and NI, The wording you quote implies the exclusion of NI, which I have to say is standard in most polls and punts.Pulpstar said:
Of course it does.peter_from_putney said:
But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
What percentage of the registered vote will the named party receive in the UK as a whole, at the next UK general election?
Not saying I know the answer, but be careful.0 -
No, we are the UK *of* GB and NI.Peter_the_Punter said:
Whoa, steady. That needs checking. We are the UK and NI, The wording you quote implies the exclusion of NI, which I have to say is standard in most polls and punts.Pulpstar said:
Of course it does.peter_from_putney said:
But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
What percentage of the registered vote will the named party receive in the UK as a whole, at the next UK general election?
Not saying I know the answer, but be careful.0 -
Err no, we're The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Whoa, steady. That needs checking. We are the UK and NI, The wording you quote implies the exclusion of NI, which I have to say is standard in most polls and punts.Pulpstar said:
Of course it does.peter_from_putney said:
But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
What percentage of the registered vote will the named party receive in the UK as a whole, at the next UK general election?
Not saying I know the answer, but be careful.
Not the UK and NI0 -
Too slow, TSE 0
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But they aren't getting Remain Tories into their column.AndyJS said:LDs need to put all their energies into Remain constituencies IMO. OWAB and Cheadle, even though the majorities aren't particularly small in those examples.
I do hope Vince Cable doesn't get back in. Politics really hasn't missed him these past two years.0 -
No, that won't do. Try responding to the substance.RobD said:
From a very neutral source.Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism0 -
Yes. The Yellow vote has churned.paulyork64 said:what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.
Back the Tory in Norfolk North @ 7/40 -
i'm at work but my wife's just text me her verdict on TM on the one show:
"really good and funny and not at all dull".
sounds better than having Russell Brand in your kitchen.0 -
Did your ex-LD-leafletting lady say why she's planning not to vote this time around?MarqueeMark said:
Perhaps this time it is more "I don't want to vote for the loser...."? Jeremy Corbyn has loser written all over him. Even Albania gave up on socialism. Not Jeremy.peter_from_putney said:In addition to the "shy" factor, wholly or in large part attributed to the Tories and generally reckoned to have been worth around 2% in each of the last two elections, there's also the "I want to vote for the winning side" factor , which has been evident in any number of elections, not simply limited to the UK. Does anyone know what this is reckoned to be worth in terms of votes or seats?
And all those LibDem "Winning here!" signs are looking less optimistic and more a downright lie.0 -
Just fallen out of love with them.... Doesn't trust anybody anymore.AnneJGP said:
Did your ex-LD-leafletting lady say why she's planning not to vote this time around?MarqueeMark said:
Perhaps this time it is more "I don't want to vote for the loser...."? Jeremy Corbyn has loser written all over him. Even Albania gave up on socialism. Not Jeremy.peter_from_putney said:In addition to the "shy" factor, wholly or in large part attributed to the Tories and generally reckoned to have been worth around 2% in each of the last two elections, there's also the "I want to vote for the winning side" factor , which has been evident in any number of elections, not simply limited to the UK. Does anyone know what this is reckoned to be worth in terms of votes or seats?
And all those LibDem "Winning here!" signs are looking less optimistic and more a downright lie.0 -
If the Tories do indeed win most votes and seats in Wales thanks to the collapse in the UKIP vote that will give Plaid and Leanne Wood something to think about!0
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Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
"Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"0 -
Plus strong and stable Brexit negotiations aside, can anyone honestly see Jezza representing us, leading us in any international circumstances whatsoever?MarqueeMark said:
Perhaps this time it is more "I don't want to vote for the loser...."? Jeremy Corbyn has loser written all over him. Even Albania gave up on socialism. Not Jeremy.peter_from_putney said:In addition to the "shy" factor, wholly or in large part attributed to the Tories and generally reckoned to have been worth around 2% in each of the last two elections, there's also the "I want to vote for the winning side" factor , which has been evident in any number of elections, not simply limited to the UK. Does anyone know what this is reckoned to be worth in terms of votes or seats?
And all those LibDem "Winning here!" signs are looking less optimistic and more a downright lie.0 -
I know of a highly respected PB.com bettor, not currently located within these shores, so I can talk about him freely, who has bet on Labour winning fewer than 100 seats which would mean the result looking something like this perhaps:peter_from_putney said:
But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
Tory .................470
Labour ...............95
LibDem ..............15
SNP ....................47
N.I. ................... 18
Plaid ................... 4
Greens .......... ..... 1
UKIP .................... 0
Total ............... 6500 -
Yes, I stand corrected, but the point still holds. If NI is not specifically mentioned in the wording, the default assumption would be that it is excluded.TheScreamingEagles said:
Err no, we're The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Whoa, steady. That needs checking. We are the UK and NI, The wording you quote implies the exclusion of NI, which I have to say is standard in most polls and punts.Pulpstar said:
Of course it does.peter_from_putney said:
But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
What percentage of the registered vote will the named party receive in the UK as a whole, at the next UK general election?
Not saying I know the answer, but be careful.
Not the UK and NI
Anyway checking never hurts and would put the matter beyond doubt.0 -
Not sure why I'm required to respond to a report by eurofanatics.Bromptonaut said:
No, that won't do. Try responding to the substance.RobD said:
From a very neutral source.Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism0 -
UK as a whole implies it does include NI. You are right about checking though!Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, I stand corrected, but the point still holds. If NI is not specifically mentioned in the wording, the default assumption would be that it is excluded.TheScreamingEagles said:
Err no, we're The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Whoa, steady. That needs checking. We are the UK and NI, The wording you quote implies the exclusion of NI, which I have to say is standard in most polls and punts.Pulpstar said:
Of course it does.peter_from_putney said:
But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
What percentage of the registered vote will the named party receive in the UK as a whole, at the next UK general election?
Not saying I know the answer, but be careful.
Not the UK and NI
Anyway checking never hurts and would put the matter beyond doubt.0 -
Baldwin mark 2?peter_from_putney said:
I know of a highly respected PB.com bettor, not currently located within these shores, so I can talk about him freely, who has bet on Labour winning fewer than 100 seats which would mean the result looking something like this perhaps:peter_from_putney said:
But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
Tory .................470
Labour ...............95
LibDem ..............15
SNP ....................47
N.I. ................... 18
Plaid ................... 4
Greens .......... ..... 1
UKIP .................... 0
Total ............... 6500
