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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron ends up doing even better than the exit polls
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron ends up doing even better than the exit polls
New York Times graphic
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I didn't catch the ladbrokes statement - although I did ping him on here after betfair said something similar;
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1544323#Comment_1544323 I was right. It wasn't smart money.
I put a large bet on, hoping for a ~12% return. Then news of a massive hack hit the headlines. I cashed out.
pft.
Even though this time they would presumably have got it right...
My best band was the 30-35% by some margin, so sitting pretty on some stake money for June.
Farage said yesterday that Le Pen would be much the best choice for Brexit which I'm afraid tells you all you need to know about the choice we have made.
I wish to take off the "lite" bit.
https://twitter.com/tmaycasebooks/status/861158759124656129
The Schulz effect appears to have been and gone.
I mean who would believe a chancellor who had been calling for direct action and closing off the Houses of Parliament bypassing democracy because it "doesn't work"
I
(see video posted on here yesterday or the day before)
I hope everyone took the opportunity of the free money available during the last two weeks on Betfair on Macron winning. Having him at 1.11or 1.12 so long was absurd (but very profitable for me).
The next interesting markets on French politics are the next PM and the biggest party after the June elections.
On the next PM market, there is very little activity on Betfair and the prices are currently bizarre (1.2 for T. mariani, a far-right MP when the centrist Bayrou is at 3.2 for example).
The market on the legislative election is barely more active but at least the prices are more logical: you can back En marche at 1.84 and Republicans at 2.22. All others are no hopers anyway.
Running against MLP is one thing, she pretty much gets his vote out for him. I am interested in how he is going to attempt to get a good showing in the assembly without a local party machine to put in the shoe leather, canvaas his voters, deliver his leaflets and get his vote out.
I think Hammond will try hard to avoid the kinds of commitments that caused him such problems with the NI increases. Cameron felt the need to have sharp and hard commitments on these issues because the election was so close. He was right of course in that he only got a small and slightly unexpected majority. I think this time around there will be considerably more studied ambiguity and wriggle room.
On balance, this is probably a good thing. The next government will have to significantly increase spending on Social Care and the NHS and it would be nice if there was some left over for infrastructure spending.
I'm pleased for France that they overwhelmingly rejected the fascist, but my poor Betfair account is about £150 down this morning.
If she does tie her hands on tax rises I will be disappointed, as the current system desperately needs simplifying which will be impossible without some rates going up even if the overall effect is revenue neutral.
For those who aren't fans of May and are wary of her plans with a massive majority like me, over the top talk like that just serves to make her seem fine. How can I take criticism of her from you seriously now?
Liquid breakfast ?
And Trump is an idiot. I thought you knew that.
Good day.
If we had a similar system in the U.K. and we had ended up with Nick Griffin against Ed Milliband I hope Ed would have been elected on a much larger percentage than Macron was.
Looks like the Germans will make a sensible choice (Outside chance of Schauble but probably Merkel), though the Italians are on a coinflip to elect a party of loons...
I hope that you can find time to write a header before the Assembly elections.
Tipster of the Year, in my eyes!
Can't Remember Ever Admiring Marine
We can only hope Hammond (for surely it will be he) doesnt try and learn from Brown and Obso.
The unsung hero for getting things both simplified and improved was the former LibDem pensions minister Steve Webb.
With interest rates at historic lows we currently spend more on interest than we do on education.
Have a good day everyone.
Besides, each party has different weaknesses. I do expect some tough questions for May on the NHS which might result in manifesto promises. I don't expect many tough questions for Corbyn on what his plans for further privatisation of the NHS are...
Answers on a postcard to the usual address
https://twitter.com/Wollygogg/status/861302696686616578
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/861330929977098240
I'd also caution against thinking that an election result in France is going to have much impact on sentiment towards the EU in Britain. The idea that the British people are going to awake from their slumber and march headlong into the ranks of the European federalists is a pipe dream. That sentiment has never widely been held in Britain - even in the days of Blair, whose was possibly the most pro-European government since Heath's, he could not get the Euro introduced.
That's not to say that I'm disappointed by the result. I am relieved that the FN lost. Moreover, it is not in any of our interests to have a Europe collapsing in front of our eyes. But people are too hasty to ascribe the fact that France just rejected a far-right leader as leading to some kind of eruption of pro-EU sentiment in Britain.
The public know that Labour increase spending and the Conservatives reduce it. Whether or not it is true (and its truth depends on careful selection of definitions and start dates, an argument I'm not going to get into in this post) doesn't really matter.
Whilst we often observe that the French system has similarities with AV, the biggest difference is the period of reflection (and realignment) that it allows between vote one and vote two.
Q for the experts - am I right that the French still have a second vote even if the front runner polls over 50% in the first? (if so, another diff w AV)
And you should read up on how France, even more than Britain, cosies up to the Middle Eastern world, including every single one of their despotic and hateful regimes. France - just as much as Britain - has mislaid its moral compass when it comes to foreign affairs. That's realpolitik for you.
Leave means never having to say you're sorry.
Slightly surprised by the margin of the victory, but huzzah for the many persons who tipped Macron (I got on at 13, it's my first green leadership or presidential result).
https://twitter.com/Wollygogg/status/861476569071710208
Here, we have people who bet bottle tops all the way to those who bet thousands, with many in between. Anyone who's risking money they can't afford to lose is a moron.
Leavers need to take a good hard look around themselves and start wondering about priorities.
Seemingly nothing can be done.
Having had multiple conversations with HMRC regarding IR35 over the years their pet hate is the loss of those employers NIC contributions - the dividend tax removed most of the rest of the tax differential between limited company contractors and employment...
Watching the jubilance in France contrasting with Theresa May and her team scabbling around looking for friends like pigs in search of truffles is bound to have an effect.
Given the absence of hype, I assume it's less sensational than last time.
I think if the candidate breaks 50%, no runoff is held.
All I'm saying is that it's difficult to extrapolate trends in France into trends in the UK. Both countries have fundamentally different cultures, national senses of identity and outlooks. I remember when Hollande (remember him?) won there was much made of the fact that this could lead to a renaissance for the centre-left and a rejection of austerity in Britain. That didn't happen. But what I do hope it does is continue to make Europe aware of the threat from the far right (albeit a threat that has thankfully not materialised in any gaining of power yet) and for European leaders to sit up and try and understand why this is happening.