A big disappointment for Trump Farage and many posters on here but a great day for the French who would never choose the fascist however it was wrapped.
Farage said yesterday that Le Pen would be much the best choice for Brexit which I'm afraid tells you all you need to know about the choice we have made.
Actually Gove on the same programme said he would have voted for Fillon in round 1 but Macron in the runoff
Admitting to choosing the FN is not a good career move for a Tory politician even one as washed up as Govey.
And this nonsense about zero deficit ! Which other country pursues moronic policy like that ? In the US, Trump is increasing the deficit.
We should be running a surplus by now, as Germany has been doing for some considerable time. The horrendous debt built up as a result of Brown's policy errors and general incompetence is a millstone around our children's necks that will adversely affect their standard of living and significantly reduce our ability to respond to international turmoil in future.
And Trump is an idiot. I thought you knew that.
Trump is a Republican and, as Cheney put it: Reagan showed that deficits don't matter. Meanwhile, back in Britain, it was Gordon Brown paying off Tory debt and George Osborne increasing it.
The idea that Gordon Brown paid off "Tory debt" is laughable. He inherited a budget surplus and continued to run a surplus for the first 3 years, sticking to a manifesto promise to follow Tory spending plans. Thereafter he ran a deficit every year. Before the financial crisis hit the debt had risen by around 65% on his watch. Even if we ignore the financial crisis the truth is that Brown massively increased the debt.
Before the global financial meltdown, Brown either ran a surplus or a deficit smaller than the previous Conservative governments had been running. It is because it was low by historical and international standards that the Conservative Opposition felt able to announce it would follow Labour's spending levels.
The Tory government in the last 7 years have borrowed more money than all governments put together since the war. And still the NHS is broke. And interest payments a fraction of what it used to be.
Good morning. As @Roger implies, it does now look as if the Brexit and Trump votes were the fag-end of the wave of closed nativism. I hope May has the good sense to bin off the nationalists once her election is out of the way, and sit down with Macron to find a sensible way forward. But I fear she has been brainwashed by the Hard Right.
The FN still doubled their runoff vote from 2002 even with the Macron landslide. I also think the Eurosceptic 5* could well win the Italian elections next year, Beppe Grillo is more Boris Johnson than Marine Le Pen. As for hard Brexit if May wins a landslide having committed to take the UK out of the single market and end free movement and reduce payments to the EU that is what the voters will expect her to deliver!
HYUFD still trying to give another gloss on the FN result. Poor chap. He has been at it since two weeks now.
"Would you welcome a choice once the details of Brexit have been agreed between May's government and the EU."
To be honest ... no.
The referendum was always stated to be a yes/no decision and to settle the issue. The old joke about neverendum applies. Had the result been that we stay, then at my age, that decision would 'see me out'.
It was meant to settle the matter once and for all - which I took to mean 'for the see-able future'.
The options .. .Accept the deal, Send it back for renegotiation, Stay in EU... apart from the first, are just a wheeze to stop the result being implemented.
Send it back for renegotiations just means to be Oliver Twist, and would only increase the EU's intransigence.
If we stayed in against the expressed wishes of the voters. why bother voting anymore? The politicians fear anarchy more than anything, and they are wise to do so.
The left have flocked to Macron as clearly he had to beat Le Pen (rightly so, I';m not one of these mythical LePen supporters). I think they will very quickly be dissapointed when the actually work out what Macron is planning to do.
If anything if it is as 'pro-business' as stated, then those farmers and unions will be stockpiling tyres to burn within days.
There's little enthusiasm for Macron, his vote is largely anti-Le Pen. He'll soon reach Hollandaise levels of unpopularity.
And this nonsense about zero deficit ! Which other country pursues moronic policy like that ? In the US, Trump is increasing the deficit.
We should be running a surplus by now, as Germany has been doing for some considerable time. The horrendous debt built up as a result of Brown's policy errors and general incompetence is a millstone around our children's necks that will adversely affect their standard of living and significantly reduce our ability to respond to international turmoil in future.
And Trump is an idiot. I thought you knew that.
Trump is a Republican and, as Cheney put it: Reagan showed that deficits don't matter. Meanwhile, back in Britain, it was Gordon Brown paying off Tory debt and George Osborne increasing it.
The idea that Gordon Brown paid off "Tory debt" is laughable. He inherited a budget surplus and continued to run a surplus for the first 3 years, sticking to a manifesto promise to follow Tory spending plans. Thereafter he ran a deficit every year. Before the financial crisis hit the debt had risen by around 65% on his watch. Even if we ignore the financial crisis the truth is that Brown massively increased the debt.
Before the global financial meltdown, Brown either ran a surplus or a deficit smaller than the previous Conservative governments had been running. It is because it was low by historical and international standards that the Conservative Opposition felt able to announce it would follow Labour's spending levels.
The Tory government in the last 7 years have borrowed more money than all governments put together since the war. And still the NHS is broke. And interest payments a fraction of what it used to be.
Incompetent.
But the deficit is reducing and when we are in surplus we will be able to start paying off the debt,. reducing our interest costs. Would never have happened under Labour.
Good morning. As @Roger implies, it does now look as if the Brexit and Trump votes were the fag-end of the wave of closed nativism. I hope May has the good sense to bin off the nationalists once her election is out of the way, and sit down with Macron to find a sensible way forward. But I fear she has been brainwashed by the Hard Right.
The FN still doubled their runoff vote from 2002 even with the Macron landslide. I also think the Eurosceptic 5* could well win the Italian elections next year, Beppe Grillo is more Boris Johnson than Marine Le Pen. As for hard Brexit if May wins a landslide having committed to take the UK out of the single market and end free movement and reduce payments to the EU that is what the voters will expect her to deliver!
They will also expect all the other stuff she has promised - a fairer country in which living standards for the majority improve. It will be interesting to see how she manages that on the back of a Hard Brexit.
The voters voted Leave and by backing May's plan they will be backing hard Brexit and putting immigration control and sovereignty first for the next few years. Osborne's work in reducing the deficit and spending as a percentage of GDP will continue under Hammond but will be less of a priority
A big disappointment for Trump Farage and many posters on here but a great day for the French who would never choose the fascist however it was wrapped.
Farage said yesterday that Le Pen would be much the best choice for Brexit which I'm afraid tells you all you need to know about the choice we have made.
Actually Gove on the same programme said he would have voted for Fillon in round 1 but Macron in the runoff
Admitting to choosing the FN is not a good career move for a Tory politician even one as washed up as Govey.
I would probably have done the same as Gove if I was French it was really Kippers for Le Pen, Tories were for Fillon
It's about time that nationalism was given a better press. The nation state enabled democracy to be established because it provided a place in which a demos could be established. Being proud of one's country is a good thing. Wanting one's country to do well is a good thing. Being proud of being British or French or Italian, even if you come from a mixture of backgrounds (as I do), regardless of where you were born, is a good thing. Deracinated individuals/groups are to be pitied rather than admired.
It does not mean that you want other countries to do badly. Nor does it mean that you hate foreigners.
There are people and parties who think like this. But this is not an inevitable consequence of having pride in the country you live in.
Some are far too quick to assume that a desire to have your country to do well is barely a step away from death marches and camps. It isn't and it's about time someone said so.
Unfortunately, the history of "nationalism" is predicated on both creating a culture which emphasises the positives about your own group and the negatives about other groups. It is the only method people had of cohesion - it's as much a method as we saw with organised religions before organised nations (there aren't huge differences).
Negative attitudes toward foreigners may not be "an inevitable consequence" of national pride per se but it becomes inevitable if the education and inculcation of that nationalism is prejudiced on and accentuated by the selective teaching of history and the cultural stereotyping of other nations and cultures.
The left have flocked to Macron as clearly he had to beat Le Pen (rightly so, I';m not one of these mythical LePen supporters). I think they will very quickly be dissapointed when the actually work out what Macron is planning to do.
If anything if it is as 'pro-business' as stated, then those farmers and unions will be stockpiling tyres to burn within days.
There's little enthusiasm for Macron, his vote is largely anti-Le Pen. He'll soon reach Hollandaise levels of unpopularity.
Remember when Miliband hailed Hollande as 'the ender of austerity'.
Good morning. As @Roger implies, it does now look as if the Brexit and Trump votes were the fag-end of the wave of closed nativism. I hope May has the good sense to bin off the nationalists once her election is out of the way, and sit down with Macron to find a sensible way forward. But I fear she has been brainwashed by the Hard Right.
The FN still doubled their runoff vote from 2002 even with the Macron landslide. I also think the Eurosceptic 5* could well win the Italian elections next year, Beppe Grillo is more Boris Johnson than Marine Le Pen. As for hard Brexit if May wins a landslide having committed to take the UK out of the single market and end free movement and reduce payments to the EU that is what the voters will expect her to deliver!
Yes the 5* do seem to be the next problem child. But their movement is very much sui generis, a weird mix of left and right, but not a movement of the far right. Beppe Grillo has softened his eurosceptic rhetoric recently. And there was that weird attempt to join the ALDE in the EP. So I doubt we will see the same alt-right support for it, and probably less Russian cheerleading considering Italy is generally friendly to Russia whoever is in power. Even if the 5* were to win the elections I doubt we would see Italy leave the eurozone.
It is difficult to imagine how anyone on the normal British electoral spectrum could have voted for anyone other than Macron yesterday. Congratulations to him and let us hope he lives up to the expectations of his more enthusiastic supporters. That he very well could do, having risen without trace.
However, his victory has nothing to do with the FN, the PS or anyone else except Nicholas Sarkozy and his antipathy towards Alain Juppe. True, no-one could reasonably have expected Francois Fillon to come from nowhere to take the Republicain's nomination from between Sarkozy and Juppe. No-one could reasonably have expected Fillon's uniquely inappropriate history not to have come out before the voting in the second round of the Republicain nominations. Lets face it their new system which was designed to ensure the right had the one best candidate left them with the one candidate everyone could beat, even Marine le Pen.
Even then, when Fillon's backstory came out it required the obstinate indifference to the wellbeing of his own party of a Jeremy Corbyn for him not to resign in favour of Alain Juppe. This shocking mistake has certainly cost Les Republicains 5 years and probably 10.
I do find it darkly amusing that some people think that an investment banker turned politician is some sort of progressive saviour..
A sceptic writes from France:
But Macron represents everything most French voters do not like: globalisation, banking, Bilderberg, the EU. He has been elected not because of what he believes, but because he is not Marine Le Pen.
'You're quite right. I apologise. I skim read it and knowing him to be an extreme May loyalist I filled in the blanks wrongly'.
Roger - I accept your apologies but sadly it says more about you that you assume anyone supporting Theresa May is an extremist when that is abundantly untrue.
Action for today - never skim read something then pass an opinion on it
It's about time that nationalism was given a better press. The nation state enabled democracy to be established because it provided a place in which a demos could be established. Being proud of one's country is a good thing. Wanting one's country to do well is a good thing. Being proud of being British or French or Italian, even if you come from a mixture of backgrounds (as I do), regardless of where you were born, is a good thing. Deracinated individuals/groups are to be pitied rather than admired.
It does not mean that you want other countries to do badly. Nor does it mean that you hate foreigners.
There are people and parties who think like this. But this is not an inevitable consequence of having pride in the country you live in.
Some are far too quick to assume that a desire to have your country to do well is barely a step away from death marches and camps. It isn't and it's about time someone said so.
Unfortunately, the history of "nationalism" is predicated on both creating a culture which emphasises the positives about your own group and the negatives about other groups. It is the only method people had of cohesion - it's as much a method as we saw with organised religions before organised nations (there aren't huge differences).
Negative attitudes toward foreigners may not be "an inevitable consequence" of national pride per se but it becomes inevitable if the education and inculcation of that nationalism is prejudiced on and accentuated by the selective teaching of history and the cultural stereotyping of other nations and cultures.
It's precisely the "if" in your last sentence that I am challenging.
And this nonsense about zero deficit ! Which other country pursues moronic policy like that ? In the US, Trump is increasing the deficit.
We should be running a surplus by now, as Germany has been doing for some considerable time. The horrendous debt built up as a result of Brown's policy errors and general incompetence is a millstone around our children's necks that will adversely affect their standard of living and significantly reduce our ability to respond to international turmoil in future.
And Trump is an idiot. I thought you knew that.
Trump is a Republican and, as Cheney put it: Reagan showed that deficits don't matter. Meanwhile, back in Britain, it was Gordon Brown paying off Tory debt and George Osborne increasing it.
The idea that Gordon Brown paid off "Tory debt" is laughable. He inherited a budget surplus and continued to run a surplus for the first 3 years, sticking to a manifesto promise to follow Tory spending plans. Thereafter he ran a deficit every year. Before the financial crisis hit the debt had risen by around 65% on his watch. Even if we ignore the financial crisis the truth is that Brown massively increased the debt.
Before the global financial meltdown, Brown either ran a surplus or a deficit smaller than the previous Conservative governments had been running. It is because it was low by historical and international standards that the Conservative Opposition felt able to announce it would follow Labour's spending levels.
The Tory government in the last 7 years have borrowed more money than all governments put together since the war. And still the NHS is broke. And interest payments a fraction of what it used to be.
Incompetent.
This nonsense you pedal is like a fart in a hurricane.
It is difficult to imagine how anyone on the normal British electoral spectrum could have voted for anyone other than Macron yesterday. Congratulations to him and let us hope he lives up to the expectations of his more enthusiastic supporters. That he very well could do, having risen without trace.
However, his victory has nothing to do with the FN, the PS or anyone else except Nicholas Sarkozy and his antipathy towards Alain Juppe. True, no-one could reasonably have expected Francois Fillon to come from nowhere to take the Republicain's nomination from between Sarkozy and Juppe. No-one could reasonably have expected Fillon's uniquely inappropriate history not to have come out before the voting in the second round of the Republicain nominations. Lets face it their new system which was designed to ensure the right had the one best candidate left them with the one candidate everyone could beat, even Marine le Pen.
Even then, when Fillon's backstory came out it required the obstinate indifference to the wellbeing of his own party of a Jeremy Corbyn for him not to resign in favour of Alain Juppe. This shocking mistake has certainly cost Les Republicains 5 years and probably 10.
Very unusual for me to agree with anything you write but you are entirely correct in this.
The election wasn't so much won by Macron as thrown away by the French centre-right. This time last year it looked an absolute penalty kick for whomsoever the Republicains would choose. Even Sarkozy had a decent shot.
Yes, Fillon winning over Juppe was a surprise but on the surface it made no odds. Yes, he had the charisma of rice pudding but the Socialists were in a shambles and all he had to do was get to the run off and he'd see off Le Pen without any problem.
The problem was the dreadful revelations about his wife but even then had the Party moved to dump him quickly and bring in Juppe, the damage could have been contained but instead internal factionalism or just indecision let the moment pass and they are stuck to a corpse who still managed 20% and in the absence of a Macron-type candidate, might still have come second.
As you say, the centre-right (and the Socialists too) have had a disastrous election - it's quite possible Macron will serve two terms and by 2027 his own party may have a credible candidate and there would be a genuine four way contest (perhaps with Marine Le Pen's niece as the FN candidate).
And this nonsense about zero deficit ! Which other country pursues moronic policy like that ? In the US, Trump is increasing the deficit.
We should be running a surplus by now, as Germany has been doing for some considerable time. The horrendous debt built up as a result of Brown's policy errors and general incompetence is a millstone around our children's necks that will adversely affect their standard of living and significantly reduce our ability to respond to international turmoil in future.
And Trump is an idiot. I thought you knew that.
Trump is a Republican and, as Cheney put it: Reagan showed that deficits don't matter. Meanwhile, back in Britain, it was Gordon Brown paying off Tory debt and George Osborne increasing it.
The idea that Gordon Brown paid off "Tory debt" is laughable. He inherited a budget surplus and continued to run a surplus for the first 3 years, sticking to a manifesto promise to follow Tory spending plans. Thereafter he ran a deficit every year. Before the financial crisis hit the debt had risen by around 65% on his watch. Even if we ignore the financial crisis the truth is that Brown massively increased the debt.
Before the global financial meltdown, Brown either ran a surplus or a deficit smaller than the previous Conservative governments had been running. It is because it was low by historical and international standards that the Conservative Opposition felt able to announce it would follow Labour's spending levels.
The Tory government in the last 7 years have borrowed more money than all governments put together since the war. And still the NHS is broke. And interest payments a fraction of what it used to be.
Incompetent.
But the deficit is reducing and when we are in surplus we will be able to start paying off the debt,. reducing our interest costs. Would never have happened under Labour.
When we are in surplus? Ignoring that surpluses mainly happen under Labour governments, what will actually happen when we are in surplus is that Conservatives will call for (and make, if they are in office) tax cuts.
I do find it darkly amusing that some people think that an investment banker turned politician is some sort of progressive saviour..
A sceptic writes from France:
But Macron represents everything most French voters do not like: globalisation, banking, Bilderberg, the EU. He has been elected not because of what he believes, but because he is not Marine Le Pen.
Congrats to Macron. Hopefully he'll be able to start fixing the problems France faces without callously ad carelessly blaming those problems on others.
I must admit to finding his relationship with his wife interesting. Not for the salacious reasons some on here seem to, but for another: did Brigitte Trogneux see something in the young man that marked him out for greatness, or did she mould him into the success he has become?
I think Brigitte groomed him to be what we have today. Give me the boy and I'll give you the man.
I do find it darkly amusing that some people think that an investment banker turned politician is some sort of progressive saviour.
Investment bankers know the price of everything and the value of nothing. Their view of the world and the economy is one we should be challenging not hailing, as some appear to be doing, the Second Coming. The financial world has - for far too long - thought of itself as top dog. Look around you: the world we have now is one which has suited financiers very well indeed. In America they have elected a President who wants to remove recent controls on banks. And France has elected someone who wants to go in the same liberalising direction.
When the penny drops what liberalising the French labour market actually means in practice, well that will be interesting.........
I don't know how May will turn out as PM but for all her faults she is one of the few leaders, certainly in Britain, who has given the impression that she doesn't give a toss about City folk.
Don't be ridiculous. There are all flavours of investment bankers. Some as you describe, others not. Not as convenient for the rhetorical post but boringly the case. As of course you know.
As to your main theme, you are right, people have been hailing ultra-establishment figures (ex-public schoolboy commodity traders, PPE holders, etc) as the "little guy" battling against The Man, for these past few years.
(off topic: glad to hear you are on the mend and have an exciting decision ahead of you work-wise. Head of investment banking at Goldman?)
Does anyone know if any party has ever proposed dynamic tax modelling? In which I mean someone like the OBR estimate the tax revenues at different levels and estimates the best income level for the UK.
For those interested in electoral systems - and some of us apparently are - the emergence of the French two round system was as arbitary as the result which it produced last night 2:1.
In the Third Republc from its inception in the 1870s until the end of the Great War it was standard practice for an incoming party to gerrymander the electoral system to one which it preceived gave it party advantage. Interestingly the electorate always responded by kicking them out at the first opportunity. So, the system was changed perhaps half a dozen times and the present system was the last one left in musical chairs.
That perhaps is a warning to those who would gerrymander closer to home whether to create a Tory free Wales or a Tory and Nationalist free Scotland.
Apart from the fact that Kinnock lost twice, I doubt Corbyn's intentions for hanging on is to purge the militant tendency from the party. Probably quite the opposite.
After the election defeat, Labour will be in the Last Chance Saloon.
They now need to get the next leader right.
They might as well take their time, as its likely the most important decision they will ever make.
Agreed 100%, and they will need something and someone 'new' - a new unifying ideology and purpose. I doubt they will find it, they are extremely weary.
I do find it darkly amusing that some people think that an investment banker turned politician is some sort of progressive saviour..
A sceptic writes from France:
But Macron represents everything most French voters do not like: globalisation, banking, Bilderberg, the EU. He has been elected not because of what he believes, but because he is not Marine Le Pen.
The Spectator has really taken Macron's victory badly :-)
Macron may or may not be a success, but he never sought to tack right to pander to voters tempted by the FN, he has not made any extravagant promises and he has made clear that he favours liberalising French markets and working practices. We'll see how France votes in the Assembly elections, but it has hard to see the Republicains opposing his plans to lower corporation tax and reducing current constraints on employers.
I think we should wait until his unveils his program, and passes his first budget without the whole country grinding to a halt from strikes before we get to carried away. Sure, he looks good on TV, and talks a good line, but can he actually achieve anything.
Running against MLP is one thing, she pretty much gets his vote out for him. I am interested in how he is going to attempt to get a good showing in the assembly without a local party machine to put in the shoe leather, canvaas his voters, deliver his leaflets and get his vote out.
It is a victory for the EU vision and a defeat for isolationist authoritarian nationalism, as espoused by Chairman May and the UKIP-Tory party, despite their probable landslide victory on 8/6/17.
I think you could have gone wider and included the US and Saudi Arabia Theresa May's new best friends. Again too early to tell but I wonder if this could be a shot in the arm for Corbyn and Farron?
Why would it be? In the case of Corbyn, he's hardly the most pro-European leader out there!
I'd also caution against thinking that an election result in France is going to have much impact on sentiment towards the EU in Britain. The idea that the British people are going to awake from their slumber and march headlong into the ranks of the European federalists is a pipe dream. That sentiment has never widely been held in Britain - even in the days of Blair, whose was possibly the most pro-European government since Heath's, he could not get the Euro introduced.
That's not to say that I'm disappointed by the result. I am relieved that the FN lost. Moreover, it is not in any of our interests to have a Europe collapsing in front of our eyes. But people are too hasty to ascribe the fact that France just rejected a far-right leader as leading to some kind of eruption of pro-EU sentiment in Britain.
One can nevertheless hope that seeing so many Brexiters, from Farage downwards, hoping for the LePen victory that the French had the good sense to turn away from might prompt a bit of self reflection.
Whilst we often observe that the French system has similarities with AV, the biggest difference is the period of reflection (and realignment) that it allows between vote one and vote two.
Apparently it's bad form to remind Leavers that those who expressed a preference overwhelmingly backed Marine Le Pen as best for Britain.
Leave means never having to say you're sorry.
That you have to say "those who expressed a preference" gives the lie to your spin.
Will it be Putin, Erdogan or May? The authoritarian leaders of the 3 main countries on the fringes of Europe, who do not support the European vision, are unlikely to welcome Macron's victory.
It would be nice to think the tide is turning but it's a bit early to tell. One spin off is likely to be the reinvigoration of the Remainers as we watch the new optimism spreading from accross the channel.
I think we should wait until his unveils his program, and passes his first budget without the whole country grinding to a halt from strikes before we get to carried away. Sure, he looks good on TV, and talks a good line, but can he actually achieve anything.
Running against MLP is one thing, she pretty much gets his vote out for him. I am interested in how he is going to attempt to get a good showing in the assembly without a local party machine to put in the shoe leather, canvaas his voters, deliver his leaflets and get his vote out.
It is a victory for the EU vision and a defeat for isolationist authoritarian nationalism, as espoused by Chairman May and the UKIP-Tory party, despite their probable landslide victory on 8/6/17.
I think you could have gone wider and included the US and Saudi Arabia Theresa May's new best friends. Again too early to tell but I wonder if this could be a shot in the arm for Corbyn and Farron?
Why would it be? In the case of Corbyn, he's hardly the most pro-European leader out there!
I'd also caution against thinking that an election result in France is going to have much impact on sentiment towards the EU in Britain. The idea that the British people are going to awake from their slumber and march headlong into the ranks of the European federalists is a pipe dream. That sentiment has never widely been held in Britain - even in the days of Blair, whose was possibly the most pro-European government since Heath's, he could not get the Euro introduced.
That's not to say that I'm disappointed by the result. I am relieved that the FN lost. Moreover, it is not in any of our interests to have a Europe collapsing in front of our eyes. But people are too hasty to ascribe the fact that France just rejected a far-right leader as leading to some kind of eruption of pro-EU sentiment in Britain.
Optimism is contagious.
Watching the jubilance in France contrasting with Theresa May and her team scabbling around looking for friends like pigs in search of truffles is bound to have an effect.
The French are jubilant that Le Pen got a third of the vote?
This is what puzzles me, the popularity of FN is clearly growing whether or not you support or agree with them. The response seems to be nothing more than calling MLP a fascist.
Suggesting more than 1/3 of French people is unfair and dangerous, it will backfire
What a strange world politicos inhabit, an election overseas that will have zero impact on anybody's life in the UK is celebrated like a lottery win.
A rare victory over contemporary trend toward the ugly, stupid, cowardly and nativist politics typified by Brexit, Trump and especially Maydogan is worth celebrating.
And precisely how much clout is the jumped-up Seamus Milne likely to have after Labour suffer their heaviest defeat in a generation. He's trying to protect his own skin more like.
Sarkozy, Hollande and now Macron, three French presidents who have come to power promising reforms to the French economy that it rather desperately needs. Others before them also tried a few tweaks. All have been defeated by those folk who still believe in L’exception française. Will Macron do any better? I doubt it.
I think we should wait until his unveils his program, and passes his first budget without the whole country grinding to a halt from strikes before we get to carried away. Sure, he looks good on TV, and talks a good line, but can he actually achieve anything.
Running against MLP is one thing, she pretty much gets his vote out for him. I am interested in how he is going to attempt to get a good showing in the assembly without a local party machine to put in the shoe leather, canvaas his voters, deliver his leaflets and get his vote out.
It is a victory for the EU vision and a defeat for isolationist authoritarian nationalism, as espoused by Chairman May and the UKIP-Tory party, despite their probable landslide victory on 8/6/17.
I think you could have gone wider and included the US and Saudi Arabia Theresa May's new best friends. Again too early to tell but I wonder if this could be a shot in the arm for Corbyn and Farron?
Why would it be? In the case of Corbyn, he's hardly the most pro-European leader out there!
I'd also caution against thinking that an election result in France is going to have much impact on sentiment towards the EU in Britain. The idea that the British people are going to awake from their slumber and march headlong into the ranks of the European federalists is a pipe dream. That sentiment has never widely been held in Britain - even in the days of Blair, whose was possibly the most pro-European government since Heath's, he could not get the Euro introduced.
That's not to say that I'm disappointed by the result. I am relieved that the FN lost. Moreover, it is not in any of our interests to have a Europe collapsing in front of our eyes. But people are too hasty to ascribe the fact that France just rejected a far-right leader as leading to some kind of eruption of pro-EU sentiment in Britain.
One can nevertheless hope that seeing so many Brexiters, from Farage downwards, hoping for the LePen victory that the French had the good sense to turn away from might prompt a bit of self reflection.
Whilst we often observe that the French system has similarities with AV, the biggest difference is the period of reflection (and realignment) that it allows between vote one and vote two.
Apparently it's bad form to remind Leavers that those who expressed a preference overwhelmingly backed Marine Le Pen as best for Britain.
Leave means never having to say you're sorry.
That you have to say "those who expressed a preference" gives the lie to your spin.
.. or it could be a desire to give the complete facts rather than spin it.
What a strange world politicos inhabit, an election overseas that will have zero impact on anybody's life in the UK is celebrated like a lottery win.
A rare victory over contemporary trend toward the ugly, stupid, cowardly and nativist politics typified by Brexit, Trump and especially Maydogan is worth celebrating.
Deary me, do you have no sense or perspective at all?
You are saying that 52% of the UK are ugly, stupid, cowardly and nativist.
It is a victory for the EU vision and a defeat for isolationist authoritarian nationalism, as espoused by Chairman May and the UKIP-Tory party, despite their probable landslide victory on 8/6/17.
I think you could have gone wider and included the US and Saudi Arabia Theresa May's new best friends. Again too early to tell but I wonder if this could be a shot in the arm for Corbyn and Farron?
Why would it be? In the case of Corbyn, he's hardly the most pro-European leader out there!
I'd also caution against thinking that an election result in France is going to have much impact on sentiment towards the EU in Britain. The idea that the British people are going to awake from their slumber and march headlong into the ranks of the European federalists is a pipe dream. That sentiment has never widely been held in Britain - even in the days of Blair, whose was possibly the most pro-European government since Heath's, he could not get the Euro introduced.
That's not to say that I'm disappointed by the result. I am relieved that the FN lost. Moreover, it is not in any of our interests to have a Europe collapsing in front of our eyes. But people are too hasty to ascribe the fact that France just rejected a far-right leader as leading to some kind of eruption of pro-EU sentiment in Britain.
Optimism is contagious.
Watching the jubilance in France contrasting with Theresa May and her team scabbling around looking for friends like pigs in search of truffles is bound to have an effect.
Seems that even Vlad has spotted the lie of the land and has showered Macca with glowing praise. Not a good day of the Farageists, Trumpers and the other manifestations of the Alt-Right with their chief ally abandoning them.
What a strange world politicos inhabit, an election overseas that will have zero impact on anybody's life in the UK is celebrated like a lottery win.
On that note it seems I'm the only person on here that doesn't make money betting on politics. I guess I don't lose any either.
I do think it would help 1 or 2 on here to leave the laptop for an hour or so and engage with other people.
Please bear in mind that this is intended first and foremost to be a political betting site .... the clue's in the name. Should this activity concern you then perhaps you should look elsewhere.
Mr. Ace, Erdogan has imprisoned, suspended and fired tens of thousands (perhaps hundreds of thousands) judges, and soldiers, as well as academics. Media that doesn't support him has been axed or taken over.
Fair enough if you don't like May, but to compare her to Erdogan is an exercise in silliness.
This is what puzzles me, the popularity of FN is clearly growing whether or not you support or agree with them. The response seems to be nothing more than calling MLP a fascist.
Suggesting more than 1/3 of French people is unfair and dangerous, it will backfire
Funnily enough, I somewhat agree with you. The FN represents values of national cohesion, home is best, look after your own. EM represents openness to the world, liberalism and diversity and getting on. The fact the FN is associated with fascists gives EM a home run on their values, but it doesn't mean those values are objectively superior for lacking a negative association.
The issue I have with Brexit and Maykip is the pretence that they favour openness to the world, liberalism and diversity, and getting on, rather than calling it for the disconnection it actually is.
This is what puzzles me, the popularity of FN is clearly growing whether or not you support or agree with them. The response seems to be nothing more than calling MLP a fascist.
Suggesting more than 1/3 of French people is unfair and dangerous, it will backfire
Le Pen distanced herself from the FN and her father during the campaign in an attempt to broaden her appeal. It worked to some extent.
This is not to say there is no market for fascism in France, but it would be a wild exaggeration to suggest that it has the support of 35% of the voting population. Even during Vichy's heyday the figure wouldn't have been anything like that.
'To move on, Macron will need to call in favours from Germany and the EU. Above all he will need to demonstrate an improvement in the French economy.'
He's done the easy part,next month he needs to get a parliamentary majority & then the toughest part ,get his policies past the French unions,something no previous president in recent times has managed.
F1: only one market up on Ladbrokes for Spain, but surprised Bottas is only 4.33.
At 3/4 races he's been either a little or a lot behind Hamilton. The Ferrari was faster in Russia, but both had ropey starts. All else being equal, Bottas' odds should be comparable to Raikkonen's.
Speaking of which, it's worth considering Raikkonen for the win at 13 each way. Last year he was faster than Vettel in every session, including the race. Last qualifying he had the pace to be ahead of Vettel.
What a strange world politicos inhabit, an election overseas that will have zero impact on anybody's life in the UK is celebrated like a lottery win.
On that note it seems I'm the only person on here that doesn't make money betting on politics. I guess I don't lose any either.
I do think it would help 1 or 2 on here to leave the laptop for an hour or so and engage with other people.
Please bear in mind that this is intended first and foremost to be a political betting site .... the clue's in the name. Should this activity concern you then perhaps you should look elsewhere.
On the contrary, I have a bet most days, I enjoy it. I'm just surprised that nobody on here ever seems to place a losing bet
I do find it darkly amusing that some people think that an investment banker turned politician is some sort of progressive saviour.
Investment bankers know the price of everything and the value of nothing. Their view of the world and the economy is one we should be challenging not hailing, as some appear to be doing, the Second Coming. The financial world has - for far too long - thought of itself as top dog. Look around you: the world we have now is one which has suited financiers very well indeed. In America they have elected a President who wants to remove recent controls on banks. And France has elected someone who wants to go in the same liberalising direction.
When the penny drops what liberalising the French labour market actually means in practice, well that will be interesting.........
I don't know how May will turn out as PM but for all her faults she is one of the few leaders, certainly in Britain, who has given the impression that she doesn't give a toss about City folk.
Don't be ridiculous. There are all flavours of investment bankers. Some as you describe, others not. Not as convenient for the rhetorical post but boringly the case. As of course you know.
As to your main theme, you are right, people have been hailing ultra-establishment figures (ex-public schoolboy commodity traders, PPE holders, etc) as the "little guy" battling against The Man, for these past few years.
(off topic: glad to hear you are on the mend and have an exciting decision ahead of you work-wise. Head of investment banking at Goldman?)
Are you a banker?
I have seen all flavours of bankers over the years. Some are good. A very few are exceptional. Most are mediocre but lucky. Virtually all have a very high opinion of themselves, usually in inverse proportion to their actual achievements. And very few understand that they could not do what they do without a huge amount of hard work by others, usually unsung and generally seen as a cost to be eliminated or an asset to be sweated. The rewards for some are outrageous. The focus on money as the measure of everything creates an ethical blindness which makes it harder for good people to behave well.
Some get this. Most do not, humans being brilliant at rationalising what they do and don't do as the only possible thing they could have done or not.
I have seen far too much of the reality behind the shiny corporate speak to believe the guff, I'm afraid.
Still, most amused by your suggestion as to my next post.
The issue I have with Brexit and Maykip is the pretence that they favour openness to the world, liberalism and diversity, and getting on, rather than calling it for the disconnection it actually is.
It's a contradiction that they will have to face up to sooner or later. The many Brexit fans of Dupont-Aignan on here should be given serious pause for thought by his alliance with Le Pen.
My guess is that Macron will be looking hard at the Hartz reforms in Germany as a means of tackling persistently high unemployment and there won't be much reference to the Anglo-Saxon model. But the French politicos have tried this before and come a cropper. Macron will need the strong support of the Republican party in the Assembly to drive such reforms through. En Marche has grown out of the Socialist Party but will almost certainly find them a major obstacle to their plans.
I hope he succeeds. A stronger and more vibrant France would be good for the UK economy and also good for the EU. The current pre-eminence of Germany is unhealthy and has resulted in economic policies within the EZ that have been quite damaging for many of the members.
Sarkozy, Hollande and now Macron, three French presidents who have come to power promising reforms to the French economy that it rather desperately needs. Others before them also tried a few tweaks. All have been defeated by those folk who still believe in L’exception française. Will Macron do any better? I doubt it.
The difference is that Macron openly promotes globalisation as a solution for France. The others didn't. This doesn't Macron will be more successful, but it does mean he is different from them.
What a strange world politicos inhabit, an election overseas that will have zero impact on anybody's life in the UK is celebrated like a lottery win.
On that note it seems I'm the only person on here that doesn't make money betting on politics. I guess I don't lose any either.
I do think it would help 1 or 2 on here to leave the laptop for an hour or so and engage with other people.
Please bear in mind that this is intended first and foremost to be a political betting site .... the clue's in the name. Should this activity concern you then perhaps you should look elsewhere.
On the contrary, I have a bet most days, I enjoy it. I'm just surprised that nobody on here ever seems to place a losing bet
I'll have plenty of those on June 8th.
Yesterday was Arkle vs Mad Moose, 40 lengths clear at the last.
This is what puzzles me, the popularity of FN is clearly growing whether or not you support or agree with them. The response seems to be nothing more than calling MLP a fascist.
Suggesting more than 1/3 of French people is unfair and dangerous, it will backfire
Funnily enough, I somewhat agree with you. The FN represents values of national cohesion, home is best, look after your own. EM represents openness to the world, liberalism and diversity and getting on. The fact the FN is associated with fascists gives EM a home run on their values, but it doesn't mean those values are objectively superior for lacking a negative association.
The issue I have with Brexit and Maykip is the pretence that they favour openness to the world, liberalism and diversity, and getting on, rather than calling it for the disconnection it actually is.
I voted Leave, I've been anti EU for years, primarily because I don't want to be part of a political union with other countries.
I'm relaxed about immigration but mindful of numbers and believe in freedom of movement. Most importantly I believe we should be able to trade freely with whoever we choose.
Yet the continual implication on here is I'm a fascist.
But Macron represents everything most French voters do not like: globalisation, banking, Bilderberg, the EU. He has been elected not because of what he believes, but because he is not Marine Le Pen.
Exactly. Sarkozy lost to Hollande last time because he was ambiguous about Le Pen and her values. He tried to appease and ignore them. Macron took them head on: Le Pen and her values are a package. France can do better than that. It can be open and successful. Macron came from nowhere to win on that idea.
Granted employers NI results in a figure that looks like what you quote but that is hidden from most employees and is not deducted from the salary....
Of course it is deducted from salary, its just deducted from salary wholesale.
When a business runs its labour budget it has to include Employers NI as a cost of hiring, if it didn't then it would go out of business. If employers NI didn't exist then labour costs would come down and employers could offer better salaries.
The left have flocked to Macron as clearly he had to beat Le Pen (rightly so, I';m not one of these mythical LePen supporters). I think they will very quickly be dissapointed when the actually work out what Macron is planning to do.
If anything if it is as 'pro-business' as stated, then those farmers and unions will be stockpiling tyres to burn within days.
There's little enthusiasm for Macron, his vote is largely anti-Le Pen. He'll soon reach Hollandaise levels of unpopularity.
Considering you told us that Le Pen wiped the floor with Macron in the final debate forgive me if I treat your latest pronouncement with hilarity.
Is short: May needs to scrub the Tories clean of all traces of Kipperism once she's annihilated them. This should now be very easy for her to do. Trump and Farage already look dated, and Theresa can seize the zeitgeist and climb aboard the Macca train of optimism and moderation and few would now complain.
I voted Leave, I've been anti EU for years, primarily because I don't want to be part of a political union with other countries.
How do you rationalise being a citizen of a political union called the UK?
IN this political union if you are unhappy with the politicians who are running it you can kick them out every five years. In the EU we have a faceless bureaucrats deciding how we going to live who are unelected and unaccountable and don't have Britain's best interests always at heart
1. There is no over-arching theme that connects different contests in different countries. Brexit and Trump did not presage victories for insurgents in Europe. And Macron and Rutte's successes mean nothing for elections in the UK or anywhere else for that matter.
2. Insurgent parties, in Europe at least, have tended to finish weakly. It happened in the Netherlands, in France, in Austria. It's something to keep an eye on in other contests.
This is what puzzles me, the popularity of FN is clearly growing whether or not you support or agree with them. The response seems to be nothing more than calling MLP a fascist.
Suggesting more than 1/3 of French people is unfair and dangerous, it will backfire
Le Pen distanced herself from the FN and her father during the campaign in an attempt to broaden her appeal. It worked to some extent.
But then she denied France bore responsibility for rounding up Jews in WWII, undoing all the distancing. Even in cynical, strategic politicking terms I can't quite understand it. I can only conclude that if you're brought up in an atmosphere of holocaust denying, fascist sympathising far right politics, you become a bit confused about stuff and end up saying some strange things.
This is what puzzles me, the popularity of FN is clearly growing whether or not you support or agree with them. The response seems to be nothing more than calling MLP a fascist.
Suggesting more than 1/3 of French people is unfair and dangerous, it will backfire
Funnily enough, I somewhat agree with you. The FN represents values of national cohesion, home is best, look after your own. EM represents openness to the world, liberalism and diversity and getting on. The fact the FN is associated with fascists gives EM a home run on their values, but it doesn't mean those values are objectively superior for lacking a negative association.
The issue I have with Brexit and Maykip is the pretence that they favour openness to the world, liberalism and diversity, and getting on, rather than calling it for the disconnection it actually is.
Leaving aside the sheer twattishness of "Maykip", what do you mean to imply by it?
1. There is no over-arching theme that connects different contests in different countries. Brexit and Trump did not presage victories for insurgents in Europe. And Macron and Rutte's successes mean nothing for elections in the UK or anywhere else for that matter.
2. Insurgent parties, in Europe at least, have tended to finish weakly. It happened in the Netherlands, in France, in Austria. It's something to keep an eye on in other contests.
1. Perhaps there is, and the trend is defeat and failure for the movement presaged by Brexit
1. There is no over-arching theme that connects different contests in different countries. Brexit and Trump did not presage victories for insurgents in Europe. And Macron and Rutte's successes mean nothing for elections in the UK or anywhere else for that matter.
2. Insurgent parties, in Europe at least, have tended to finish weakly. It happened in the Netherlands, in France, in Austria. It's something to keep an eye on in other contests.
I suspect Brexit and Trump acted as a kind of anti-inspiration to the French: if that pair are dabbling in those murky waters then we sure as hell will do the opposite.
It's precisely the "if" in your last sentence that I am challenging.
Have a look at the history of the Danish Folkehojskole and the thoughts of NFS Grundtvig. The Folkehojskoler emerged from the Danish defeat at the hands of the Prussians in 1864 and their aim was to teach primarily the still predominantly rural Danish peasant boys and girls about Danish history and culture.
It was done mostly through song and story telling and accentuated Danish culture.
It's one of the few examples I've discovered where education about national culture and identity hasn't gone hand in hand with the cultural stereotyping and denigration of other peoples and cultures.
The glue of common identity and culture is used much as the glue of a common faith or ideology is and has been. Whether you see yourself in terms of a faith, a creed or an ethnic group, it all comes down to the human need to belong and to be part of something.
I do agree it should be possible to build that identity without denigrating the identity of others but we see it here - "Conservatives good, Labour bad, Lib Dems bad" etc.
1. There is no over-arching theme that connects different contests in different countries. Brexit and Trump did not presage victories for insurgents in Europe. And Macron and Rutte's successes mean nothing for elections in the UK or anywhere else for that matter.
2. Insurgent parties, in Europe at least, have tended to finish weakly. It happened in the Netherlands, in France, in Austria. It's something to keep an eye on in other contests.
Italy next, though I doubt Forza Italia will be in the mix (They look to be suffering the same non contender status as the socialists did in France and the Netherlands...). Renzi got spanked in the referendum however Grillo is an insurgent...
This is what puzzles me, the popularity of FN is clearly growing whether or not you support or agree with them. The response seems to be nothing more than calling MLP a fascist.
Suggesting more than 1/3 of French people is unfair and dangerous, it will backfire
Le Pen distanced herself from the FN and her father during the campaign in an attempt to broaden her appeal. It worked to some extent.
But then she denied France bore responsibility for rounding up Jews in WWII, undoing all the distancing. Even in cynical, strategic politicking terms I can't quite understand it. I can only conclude that if you're brought up in an atmosphere of holocaust denying, fascist sympathising far right politics, you become a bit confused about stuff and end up saying some strange things.
It is disgraceful. But not so strange. President Mitterand said exactly the same thing.
I think people are overdoing the comparisons of other votes with France. The French system is practically designed to help stop someone outside the mainstream winning.
Had Fillon not been a fool, and actually stood down, it's entirely possible the last two would've been Macron and Not-Fillon.
Interesting that the polling wasn't all that accurate on the second round. There's been a lot of (often ill-informed) criticism of UK polling, but in fact the error on the French second round was comparable to that of GE2105 and the referendum.
The lesson here is not to rely too literally on opinion polling. My default assumption when betting is that the polling average is quite likely to be out by 2% either way, as a rule of thumb. That's assuming that you have a good number of top-quality polls, the error is likely to be much more for thinly-polled contests, by-elections and so on.
Interesting that the polling wasn't all that accurate on the second round. There's been a lot of (often ill-informed) criticism of UK polling, but in fact the error on the French second round was comparable to that of GE2105 and the referendum.
The lesson here is not to rely too literally on opinion polling. My default assumption when betting is that the polling average is quite likely to be out by 2% either way, as a rule of thumb. That's assuming that you have a good number of top-quality polls, the error is likely to be much more for thinly-polled contests, by-elections and so on.
Didn't the polling pick up a late move to Macron before the cut-off point on Friday?
'The Tory government in the last 7 years have borrowed more money than all governments put together since the war. And still the NHS is broke. And interest payments a fraction of what it used to be.'
Were you not in this country when the Labour government gave us the worst economic collapse since the 1930's ?
Interesting that the polling wasn't all that accurate on the second round. There's been a lot of (often ill-informed) criticism of UK polling, but in fact the error on the French second round was comparable to that of GE2105 and the referendum.
The lesson here is not to rely too literally on opinion polling. My default assumption when betting is that the polling average is quite likely to be out by 2% either way, as a rule of thumb. That's assuming that you have a good number of top-quality polls, the error is likely to be much more for thinly-polled contests, by-elections and so on.
I think some people got to the polling station fully intending to vote for Le Pen, then thought better of it. They did this even though all the polls indicated she didn't have a snowball's chance. The completely incredulous choice when voters were faced with reality in the ballot box could not be made. I have a hunch as to which way this migh swing the final %s in the UK.
John McDonnell faces a Labour revolt to unseat him as shadow chancellor after he said there was “a lot to learn” from Karl Marx's Das Kapital.
Shadow cabinet sources said Jeremy Corbyn’s right-hand man, who has described himself in the past as an “unapologetic Marxist”, had done nothing to help Labour’s cause with a month to go to the general election.
And while they said it was too late to mount a challenge to Mr McDonnell or Mr Corbyn before the June 8 ballot, there will be “no holding back” when Labour MPs come back to Parliament after the election.
My guess is that Macron will be looking hard at the Hartz reforms in Germany as a means of tackling persistently high unemployment and there won't be much reference to the Anglo-Saxon model. But the French politicos have tried this before and come a cropper. Macron will need the strong support of the Republican party in the Assembly to drive such reforms through. En Marche has grown out of the Socialist Party but will almost certainly find them a major obstacle to their plans.
I hope he succeeds. A stronger and more vibrant France would be good for the UK economy and also good for the EU. The current pre-eminence of Germany is unhealthy and has resulted in economic policies within the EZ that have been quite damaging for many of the members.
Given where a weak France sits in the global economic order, its UN Security Council seat and its independent nuclear capacity, a strong France might well become a significant power.
John McDonnell faces a Labour revolt to unseat him as shadow chancellor after he said there was “a lot to learn” from Karl Marx's Das Kapital.
Shadow cabinet sources said Jeremy Corbyn’s right-hand man, who has described himself in the past as an “unapologetic Marxist”, had done nothing to help Labour’s cause with a month to go to the general election.
And while they said it was too late to mount a challenge to Mr McDonnell or Mr Corbyn before the June 8 ballot, there will be “no holding back” when Labour MPs come back to Parliament after the election.
1. There is no over-arching theme that connects different contests in different countries. Brexit and Trump did not presage victories for insurgents in Europe. And Macron and Rutte's successes mean nothing for elections in the UK or anywhere else for that matter.
2. Insurgent parties, in Europe at least, have tended to finish weakly. It happened in the Netherlands, in France, in Austria. It's something to keep an eye on in other contests.
I suspect Brexit and Trump acted as a kind of anti-inspiration to the French: if that pair are dabbling in those murky waters then we sure as hell will do the opposite.
Close association with Trump has not worked out well for the European hard right. Merkel's trip to see him in the US, his boorish treatment of her and the all-round ignorance he exhibited during the visit have proved to be a real boon to her. And in France, you probably could not devise a more repellent American stereotype. I suspect that there are similar feelings about him here - something May will need to be wary of moving forwards.
This is what puzzles me, the popularity of FN is clearly growing whether or not you support or agree with them. The response seems to be nothing more than calling MLP a fascist.
Suggesting more than 1/3 of French people is unfair and dangerous, it will backfire
There are people who seem to see everything as a proxy engagement for the outcome of UK elections or UK referendums.
Macron secured 8.6m votes in the French primary - that's 1.6m down on Hollande and 700k fewer than Ed Miliband's Labour in a FPTP election in 2015.
He isn't a progressive messiah. He's President Meh.
I think people are overdoing the comparisons of other votes with France. The French system is practically designed to help stop someone outside the mainstream winning.
Had Fillon not been a fool, and actually stood down, it's entirely possible the last two would've been Macron and Not-Fillon.
There was nothing inevitable about Macron's win. He beat Fillon in the first round because of the latter's personal difficulties, but also because he had a clear anti-Pennist idea. If Macron and a non-Fillon conservative had got through, Macron would have at least beaten Le Pen, if not gaining the presidency.
This is what puzzles me, the popularity of FN is clearly growing whether or not you support or agree with them. The response seems to be nothing more than calling MLP a fascist.
Suggesting more than 1/3 of French people is unfair and dangerous, it will backfire
Le Pen distanced herself from the FN and her father during the campaign in an attempt to broaden her appeal. It worked to some extent.
But then she denied France bore responsibility for rounding up Jews in WWII, undoing all the distancing. Even in cynical, strategic politicking terms I can't quite understand it. I can only conclude that if you're brought up in an atmosphere of holocaust denying, fascist sympathising far right politics, you become a bit confused about stuff and end up saying some strange things.
It is disgraceful. But not so strange. President Mitterand said exactly the same thing.
I hold no particular brief for Mitterrand, though I guess someone who lived (& fought) through the Fall of France, the occupation, Vichy and liberation would have a complicated relationship with the truth - the same might be said of most French who lived through that period.
It just seemed an extremely weird position to take for someone in contemporary politics who was apparently trying to distance herself from the politics of Holocaust denial and Fascist sympathy.
Some are far too quick to assume that a desire to have your country to do well is barely a step away from death marches and camps. It isn't and it's about time someone said so.
But Macron represents everything most French voters do not like: globalisation, banking, Bilderberg, the EU. He has been elected not because of what he believes, but because he is not Marine Le Pen.
Exactly. Sarkozy lost to Hollande last time because he was ambiguous about Le Pen and her values. He tried to appease and ignore them. Macron took them head on: Le Pen and her values are a package. France can do better than that. It can be open and successful. Macron came from nowhere to win on that idea.
That's been the most impressive thing about Macron - he has never once pandered tot he xenophobic, nationalist right or compromised his own socially liberal outlook to get votes. He has also been honest with voters about what he wants to do - they cannot say they were no warned. Hollande and Sarkozy both made big, bold promises that were not based on reality. Macron has been far more pragmatic.
Just running through the thread this morning, I noticed Roger's misunderstanding. Us Liberal lefties do tend to apologise and fess up when we make mistakes. As too Joff.
BTW--we have been covered by a grey cold front for days on the East Anglian coast. My wood burner has been on all the time, so please do not mention the weather.
I've been preoccupied by nesting birds and bird murderers this cold grey spring. A baby murdering magpie has killed all my fledgling pigeons; a cat has killed a nesting female robin leaving the poor dad to fend for himself, and I'm constantly being alerted by a very vocal blackbird whose taken to nearly feeding from my hands to all kinds of dangers to her nest...
Comments
Incompetent.
"Would you welcome a choice once the details of Brexit have been agreed between May's government and the EU."
To be honest ... no.
The referendum was always stated to be a yes/no decision and to settle the issue. The old joke about neverendum applies. Had the result been that we stay, then at my age, that decision would 'see me out'.
It was meant to settle the matter once and for all - which I took to mean 'for the see-able future'.
The options .. .Accept the deal, Send it back for renegotiation, Stay in EU... apart from the first, are just a wheeze to stop the result being implemented.
Send it back for renegotiations just means to be Oliver Twist, and would only increase the EU's intransigence.
If we stayed in against the expressed wishes of the voters. why bother voting anymore? The politicians fear anarchy more than anything, and they are wise to do so.
Negative attitudes toward foreigners may not be "an inevitable consequence" of national pride per se but it becomes inevitable if the education and inculcation of that nationalism is prejudiced on and accentuated by the selective teaching of history and the cultural stereotyping of other nations and cultures.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18966541
However, his victory has nothing to do with the FN, the PS or anyone else except Nicholas Sarkozy and his antipathy towards Alain Juppe. True, no-one could reasonably have expected Francois Fillon to come from nowhere to take the Republicain's nomination from between Sarkozy and Juppe. No-one could reasonably have expected Fillon's uniquely inappropriate history not to have come out before the voting in the second round of the Republicain nominations. Lets face it their new system which was designed to ensure the right had the one best candidate left them with the one candidate everyone could beat, even Marine le Pen.
Even then, when Fillon's backstory came out it required the obstinate indifference to the wellbeing of his own party of a Jeremy Corbyn for him not to resign in favour of Alain Juppe. This shocking mistake has certainly cost Les Republicains 5 years and probably 10.
But Macron represents everything most French voters do not like: globalisation, banking, Bilderberg, the EU. He has been elected not because of what he believes, but because he is not Marine Le Pen.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/macron-is-president-but-he-starts-out-under-a-deep-cloud-of-suspicion/
'You're quite right. I apologise. I skim read it and knowing him to be an extreme May loyalist I filled in the blanks wrongly'.
Roger - I accept your apologies but sadly it says more about you that you assume anyone supporting Theresa May is an extremist when that is abundantly untrue.
Action for today - never skim read something then pass an opinion on it
I would never have guessed there was a prep school in Penmaenmawr, an old slate-quarrying town.
What an extraordinary location. Was it to toughen the little lads up and give them early training in class warfare?
In other Welsh news, here are the locals for the Rhondda constituency.
Plaid Cymru got 18525 votes against Labour’s 16985 votes, and in seats Plaid Cymru won 14, Labour 10, Indy 1 in Rhondda.
So, Chris Bryant may still be in some trouble, even after Leanne decided not to risk it.
Needless to say, Chris is as well-matched to the Rhondda as .... Roger is to Penmaenmawr.
The election wasn't so much won by Macron as thrown away by the French centre-right. This time last year it looked an absolute penalty kick for whomsoever the Republicains would choose. Even Sarkozy had a decent shot.
Yes, Fillon winning over Juppe was a surprise but on the surface it made no odds. Yes, he had the charisma of rice pudding but the Socialists were in a shambles and all he had to do was get to the run off and he'd see off Le Pen without any problem.
The problem was the dreadful revelations about his wife but even then had the Party moved to dump him quickly and bring in Juppe, the damage could have been contained but instead internal factionalism or just indecision let the moment pass and they are stuck to a corpse who still managed 20% and in the absence of a Macron-type candidate, might still have come second.
As you say, the centre-right (and the Socialists too) have had a disastrous election - it's quite possible Macron will serve two terms and by 2027 his own party may have a credible candidate and there would be a genuine four way contest (perhaps with Marine Le Pen's niece as the FN candidate).
On that note it seems I'm the only person on here that doesn't make money betting on politics. I guess I don't lose any either.
I do think it would help 1 or 2 on here to leave the laptop for an hour or so and engage with other people.
As to your main theme, you are right, people have been hailing ultra-establishment figures (ex-public schoolboy commodity traders, PPE holders, etc) as the "little guy" battling against The Man, for these past few years.
(off topic: glad to hear you are on the mend and have an exciting decision ahead of you work-wise. Head of investment banking at Goldman?)
In the Third Republc from its inception in the 1870s until the end of the Great War it was standard practice for an incoming party to gerrymander the electoral system to one which it preceived gave it party advantage. Interestingly the electorate always responded by kicking them out at the first opportunity. So, the system was changed perhaps half a dozen times and the present system was the last one left in musical chairs.
That perhaps is a warning to those who would gerrymander closer to home whether to create a Tory free Wales or a Tory and Nationalist free Scotland.
They now need to get the next leader right.
They might as well take their time, as its likely the most important decision they will ever make.
Macron may or may not be a success, but he never sought to tack right to pander to voters tempted by the FN, he has not made any extravagant promises and he has made clear that he favours liberalising French markets and working practices. We'll see how France votes in the Assembly elections, but it has hard to see the Republicains opposing his plans to lower corporation tax and reducing current constraints on employers.
Mind you, that's income tax only. If you factor in National Insurance, the true maginal tax rate at that income, under PAYE, is an eye-watering 76%.
I gather that John McDonnell thinks this isn't high enough.
This is what puzzles me, the popularity of FN is clearly growing whether or not you support or agree with them. The response seems to be nothing more than calling MLP a fascist.
Suggesting more than 1/3 of French people is unfair and dangerous, it will backfire
Your pay
£157 to £866 a week (£680 to £3,750 a month) -12%
Over £866 a week (£3,750 a month) - 2%
see https://www.gov.uk/national-insurance/how-much-you-pay
Granted employers NI results in a figure that looks like what you quote but that is hidden from most employees and is not deducted from the salary....
You are saying that 52% of the UK are ugly, stupid, cowardly and nativist.
Do you really mean that?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/may/08/french-election-emmanuel-macron-victory-marine-le-pen-france-live-updates?page=with:block-59102724e4b0d608cb08292f#block-59102724e4b0d608cb08292f
Fair enough if you don't like May, but to compare her to Erdogan is an exercise in silliness.
Sorry, silly question.
The issue I have with Brexit and Maykip is the pretence that they favour openness to the world, liberalism and diversity, and getting on, rather than calling it for the disconnection it actually is.
This is not to say there is no market for fascism in France, but it would be a wild exaggeration to suggest that it has the support of 35% of the voting population. Even during Vichy's heyday the figure wouldn't have been anything like that.
'To move on, Macron will need to call in favours from Germany and the EU. Above all he will need to demonstrate an improvement in the French economy.'
He's done the easy part,next month he needs to get a parliamentary majority & then the toughest part ,get his policies past the French unions,something no previous president in recent times has managed.
Con 47.4%
Lab 26.9%
LD 10.2%
UKIP 7.3%
Greens 2.4%
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
At 3/4 races he's been either a little or a lot behind Hamilton. The Ferrari was faster in Russia, but both had ropey starts. All else being equal, Bottas' odds should be comparable to Raikkonen's.
Speaking of which, it's worth considering Raikkonen for the win at 13 each way. Last year he was faster than Vettel in every session, including the race. Last qualifying he had the pace to be ahead of Vettel.
I have seen all flavours of bankers over the years. Some are good. A very few are exceptional. Most are mediocre but lucky. Virtually all have a very high opinion of themselves, usually in inverse proportion to their actual achievements. And very few understand that they could not do what they do without a huge amount of hard work by others, usually unsung and generally seen as a cost to be eliminated or an asset to be sweated. The rewards for some are outrageous. The focus on money as the measure of everything creates an ethical blindness which makes it harder for good people to behave well.
Some get this. Most do not, humans being brilliant at rationalising what they do and don't do as the only possible thing they could have done or not.
I have seen far too much of the reality behind the shiny corporate speak to believe the guff, I'm afraid.
Still, most amused by your suggestion as to my next post.
You evidently weren't following my 2016 F1 tips.
I hope he succeeds. A stronger and more vibrant France would be good for the UK economy and also good for the EU. The current pre-eminence of Germany is unhealthy and has resulted in economic policies within the EZ that have been quite damaging for many of the members.
Yesterday was Arkle vs Mad Moose, 40 lengths clear at the last.
I'm relaxed about immigration but mindful of numbers and believe in freedom of movement. Most importantly I believe we should be able to trade freely with whoever we choose.
Yet the continual implication on here is I'm a fascist.
Funny old world.
When a business runs its labour budget it has to include Employers NI as a cost of hiring, if it didn't then it would go out of business. If employers NI didn't exist then labour costs would come down and employers could offer better salaries.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/08/tories-beat-ukip-populist-right-theresa-may
Is short: May needs to scrub the Tories clean of all traces of Kipperism once she's annihilated them. This should now be very easy for her to do. Trump and Farage already look dated, and Theresa can seize the zeitgeist and climb aboard the Macca train of optimism and moderation and few would now complain.
1. There is no over-arching theme that connects different contests in different countries. Brexit and Trump did not presage victories for insurgents in Europe. And Macron and Rutte's successes mean nothing for elections in the UK or anywhere else for that matter.
2. Insurgent parties, in Europe at least, have tended to finish weakly. It happened in the Netherlands, in France, in Austria. It's something to keep an eye on in other contests.
I can only conclude that if you're brought up in an atmosphere of holocaust denying, fascist sympathising far right politics, you become a bit confused about stuff and end up saying some strange things.
2. Was En Marche not the insurgent party?
It was done mostly through song and story telling and accentuated Danish culture.
It's one of the few examples I've discovered where education about national culture and identity hasn't gone hand in hand with the cultural stereotyping and denigration of other peoples and cultures.
The glue of common identity and culture is used much as the glue of a common faith or ideology is and has been. Whether you see yourself in terms of a faith, a creed or an ethnic group, it all comes down to the human need to belong and to be part of something.
I do agree it should be possible to build that identity without denigrating the identity of others but we see it here - "Conservatives good, Labour bad, Lib Dems bad" etc.
Very hard to call.
Had Fillon not been a fool, and actually stood down, it's entirely possible the last two would've been Macron and Not-Fillon.
The lesson here is not to rely too literally on opinion polling. My default assumption when betting is that the polling average is quite likely to be out by 2% either way, as a rule of thumb. That's assuming that you have a good number of top-quality polls, the error is likely to be much more for thinly-polled contests, by-elections and so on.
'The Tory government in the last 7 years have borrowed more money than all governments put together since the war. And still the NHS is broke. And interest payments a fraction of what it used to be.'
Were you not in this country when the Labour government gave us the worst economic collapse since the 1930's ?
The completely incredulous choice when voters were faced with reality in the ballot box could not be made. I have a hunch as to which way this migh swing the final %s in the UK.
Macron secured 8.6m votes in the French primary - that's 1.6m down on Hollande and 700k fewer than Ed Miliband's Labour in a FPTP election in 2015.
He isn't a progressive messiah. He's President Meh.
"Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats."
Are we getting any indication yet of where UKIP will - and will not - be standing?
It just seemed an extremely weird position to take for someone in contemporary politics who was apparently trying to distance herself from the politics of Holocaust denial and Fascist sympathy.
Just running through the thread this morning, I noticed Roger's misunderstanding. Us Liberal lefties do tend to apologise and fess up when we make mistakes. As too Joff.
BTW--we have been covered by a grey cold front for days on the East Anglian coast. My wood burner has been on all the time, so please do not mention the weather.
I've been preoccupied by nesting birds and bird murderers this cold grey spring. A baby murdering magpie has killed all my fledgling pigeons; a cat has killed a nesting female robin leaving the poor dad to fend for himself, and I'm constantly being alerted by a very vocal blackbird whose taken to nearly feeding from my hands to all kinds of dangers to her nest...
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls.html