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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s polling round up and why Corbyn doesn’t have Labour’

New @ORB_Int poll for The Sunday Telegraph Con 46 (+4) Lab 31 (nc) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 8 (nc) https://t.co/zkP1tzQcEc
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Just saying.
Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime....Imperialist war crimes that is.
I know Corbyn wants to ape Trump's we are the outsider type campaign, but it appears he wants to literally turn the UK into Trumpton...Blair had his plastic policeman policy, Abbott has her low cost replacement.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39829723
I initially misread it as Labour rules out 95% tax for earners....
I've really not been able to follow the Eurovision news this year (Thank you Mrs May)
What was disingenuous, was that most EU functionaries knew that even if the former part was possible, the latter was not. Of course, the Turkish government knew that EU membership was not on the cards, because it had no interest in conforming to the requirements.
[edit: vote, not core]
Remember what they actually polled.
Basically, they're just making this up as they're going along. Oh, and some wag has pointed out that £80,000 would just so happen to raise the new threshold conveniently above the salary of an MP. Which is nice.
This is the first Eurovision to be held during a general election campaign since 2001.
Mrs May is as bad as Tony Blair.
I believe it has, in fact, been incredibly damaging to the EU and regional security, as it disarmed the Ataturk factions of their ammunition (that good relations with Europe were the future) and helped usher in an ever more nationalist and Islamist Erdogan.
But should it be? Might they indeed receive a bumper turnout of their supporters because people feel good about supporting the winning side, even if their vote is in an ultra safe Conservative seat?
If what you were saying is true why was one of Boris' very first foreign engagements as FM a hurriedly prepared trip to meet Erdogan and re-affirm support for their EU membership ambitions? Does that not indicate that the UK's support for Turkish entry was far more than just a fig leaf?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/27/boris-johnson-turkey-recep-tayyip-erdogan-lewd-poem-mevlut-cavusoglu-kurds
I admit that events since the referendum have made accession in the near future unlikely, but to pretend that wasn't the end-game is completely disingenuous.
Get this wrong, and you;'re underestimating the shellacking Labour are about to experience.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/02/21/fifty-shades-of-grey-voters-corbyns-punishing-polling-with-older-voters/
I am increasingly convinced that not only will Corbyn not go when he loses, he will not lose the leadership contest.
I have been trying to decide for a while now whether or not to vote 'tactically' for Labour (would prefer to vote LD) - I can't stand Corbyn, but I do like the local MP, and I don't want to contribute to the coming Tory landslide. I am in a straight Lab/Tory marginal so any other vote isn't much use, but I just don't think I can bring myself to vote Labour and have my contribution to Corbyn's vote share be used as justification for staying on.
They may not be that lucky. But it's possible.
Ask yourself this simple question: would it have been politically popular in even one of the EU states to veto Turkish membership?>
People pretended it was likely/desirable for Turkey to join the EU because: (a) they wanted Turkey's help in sorting out regional security issues, and (b) the US government had pressured European states for decades to help out NATO member Turkey. But (really) no-one wanted Turkey to join.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/100bn-brexit-bill-legally-impossible-enforce-european-commissions/
Basically the EU knows it can't legally enforce its demands for money. In many ways that's old news though them knowing it and us knowing they know is knew.
Unfair, I know, but just saying.
If you're serious in your beliefs, you'll bite my hand off.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/860967117558099968
Up to one third of voters thinking of voting tactically to stop Tory Hard Brexit.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-2017-tactical-voting-progressive-alliance-hard-brexit-block-tories-a7721551.html
I'm pointing out your belief that support for Turkish entry wasn't genuine based on the idea that Cypriots could not be pressurized into signing a treaty is a bit farfetched.
The EU leaks and subsequent rowing may have harmed this too, since both sides look like they are playing extreme hardball, not merely that May is not going for soft brexit, therefore the prospect of preventing hard brexit looks less certain even if tactical voting worked.
Night all.
There was a demonstration of this on Thursday, with May as Moff Tarkin and UKIP as Alderaan.
Let's imagine that instead of Erdogan going full on Islamist dictator that Turkey made rapid progress on the Acquis Communitaire. Now imagine that Turkey as a final offer said they would pull completely out of Turkish Cyprus and have a reunited Cyprus in exchange for accession. You seriously think Cyprus would say No? We don't want to reunite our island and let you in?
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/860997069397479424
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
1st preferences