I have been pondering this week's results in Scotland , and am now inclining to the view that the SNP will struggle to hold 40 seats on June 8th. I expect them to lose seats to each of the three pro-Union parties.
what do we think of this. If he is running to be Dem nomination he needs to make sure Facebook pays all it's taxes. Their membership are going left now. Think we will see a left wing version of the Tea party. Personally I would like to see Rep. Joseph Kennedy III run even though he is just a House member and from New England, trump proved the old adages remain true until they don't.
I have been pondering this week's results in Scotland , and am now inclining to the view that the SNP will struggle to hold 40 seats on June 8th. I expect them to lose seats to each of the three pro-Union parties.
Don't want to blow my own trumpet but I was predicting they'd get 45 seats from the moment the election was called. I just can't see them winning such a high percentage of seats again. Last time was a one-off IMO.
No. Looks cobblers to me besides which above a certain level of support it will not make any difference anyway.
Outside of about five seats in the richest parts of London, there will be no meaningful anti Brexit tactical voting.
I suppose there must be quite a few Tory voters who are open to persuasion - though for a Tory the UK's being torn off the planet and sent into orbit is generally preferable to letting J Corbyn anywhere near the reins of power. Still, the message (whether true or not) that T May and co are crap negotiators is definitely worth pushing for the next month, to push back a bit at the authoritarian (but highly effective) "strong and stable" mantra.
I have been pondering this week's results in Scotland , and am now inclining to the view that the SNP will struggle to hold 40 seats on June 8th. I expect them to lose seats to each of the three pro-Union parties.
Serious question. What device is used to signal a Scottish Labour Surge?
Stubborn old Labour. High 20s, early 30s. It'll be fine right, won't it, Mr Corbyn?
This is beginning to worry me. Labour got 31% in 2015. Since then we've had Brexit, Corbyn and the May Ascendancy. How the actual fuck is Labour's core holding up? It's not Wales or South West England or the West Midands, we'd've seen it in the locals. It's not Scotland nor NI nor SE England. Unless London is undergoing some sort of Labour bodysnatcher thing, how the heck do we get Labour 31?
We don't. While there are some swings towards Labour/away from Con (students, rich remainers (like in Oxon) and the metropolitan elite), the overall trend indicates Labour being below 25%.
Citation needed. The overall trend seems to me to show Labour static at around 30. I've only looked in detail at the local election results in my area (Notts) but they broadly bear that out, alhough the NEV derived from the locals nationally shows it at 27 (the difference is IMO because Labour is improving in urban areas which didn't vote in the locals).
There is a core Labour vote of 25ish, plus 5 who positively like Corbyn, or dislike May, or worry about a Tory landslide. It's not surprising (or, of course, enough to win unless it improves).
I have been pondering this week's results in Scotland , and am now inclining to the view that the SNP will struggle to hold 40 seats on June 8th. I expect them to lose seats to each of the three pro-Union parties.
Oh please let that be true. I'd be very happy if we can get them below 50. More Scottish polls please.
I have been pondering this week's results in Scotland , and am now inclining to the view that the SNP will struggle to hold 40 seats on June 8th. I expect them to lose seats to each of the three pro-Union parties.
Serious question. What device is used to signal a Scottish Labour Surge?
I have been pondering this week's results in Scotland , and am now inclining to the view that the SNP will struggle to hold 40 seats on June 8th. I expect them to lose seats to each of the three pro-Union parties.
Serious question. What device is used to signal a Scottish Labour Surge?
I have no answer to that , but can see Labour ending up with circa 6 seats there.
Labour are playing the long game. Lose this election, maybe the next one too, and eventually the British public will come to their senses and elect Corbyn as PM. Makes sense. But keeping Corbyn in place is paramount, regardless of interim setbacks.
I have been pondering this week's results in Scotland , and am now inclining to the view that the SNP will struggle to hold 40 seats on June 8th. I expect them to lose seats to each of the three pro-Union parties.
Serious question. What device is used to signal a Scottish Labour Surge?
No. Looks cobblers to me besides which above a certain level of support it will not make any difference anyway.
Outside of about five seats in the richest parts of London, there will be no meaningful anti Brexit tactical voting.
I suppose there must be quite a few Tory voters who are open to persuasion - though for a Tory the UK's being torn off the planet and sent into orbit is generally preferable to letting J Corbyn anywhere near the reins of power. Still, the message (whether true or not) that T May and co are crap negotiators is definitely worth pushing for the next month, to push back a bit at the authoritarian (but highly effective) "strong and stable" mantra.
Such voters are reasonably strong in a few affluent Tory Remain seats like Bath, Cheltenham, Lewes, Richmond Park, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham and West Oxford but they will go LD if they want to protest over Brexit, they would not touch Corbyn Labour with a bargepole
So the address to the media in the Buckingham Palace ballroom wasn't to announce the release of state papers from the Profumo affair, then. When Prince Philip dies, will it even get mentioned?
Labour are playing the long game. Lose this election, maybe the next one too, and eventually the British public will come to their senses and elect Corbyn as PM. Makes sense. But keeping Corbyn in place is paramount, regardless of interim setbacks.
what if they pick a trans woman? would that be within the rules? This one story encapsulates why they have so few choices for Labour leader, instead of picking the best person for MP they have a bunch of medicore at best women MP's.
If what you were saying is true why was one of Boris' very first foreign engagements as FM a hurriedly prepared trip to meet Erdogan and re-affirm support for their EU membership ambitions? Does that not indicate that the UK's support for Turkish entry was far more than just a fig leaf?
I admit that events since the referendum have made accession in the near future unlikely, but to pretend that wasn't the end-game is completely disingenuous.
I'm sorry, you don't know anything about Cypriot politics. Any Cypriot politician that signed an accession treaty (and it requires a treaty) would be a dead man. And I don't just mean "would destroy his political chances", I mean he would would be killed.
Do you mean Greek Cypriot politicians? - the Island consists of two ethnic Cypriot groups (well three actually) but Greek and Turkish Cypriots - people a re quick to forget the 30% of the population who are not Greek Cypriot
If what you were saying is true why was one of Boris' very first foreign engagements as FM a hurriedly prepared trip to meet Erdogan and re-affirm support for their EU membership ambitions? Does that not indicate that the UK's support for Turkish entry was far more than just a fig leaf?
I admit that events since the referendum have made accession in the near future unlikely, but to pretend that wasn't the end-game is completely disingenuous.
I'm sorry, you don't know anything about Cypriot politics. Any Cypriot politician that signed an accession treaty (and it requires a treaty) would be a dead man. And I don't just mean "would destroy his political chances", I mean he would would be killed.
Do you mean Greek Cypriot politicians? - the Island consists of two ethnic Cypriot groups (well three actually) but Greek and Turkish Cypriots - people a re quick to forget the 30% of the population who are not Greek Cypriot
Hmm. On the basis of those polls the Tories and the LDs seem to have gone up by 11.3 points between them since 2015, and Labour and UKIP to have gone down by 4.8.
Can anyone explain where the extra 6.5 points came from?
Hmm. On the basis of those polls the Tories and the LDs seem to have gone up by 11.3 points between them since 2015, and Labour and UKIP to have gone down by 4.8.
Can anyone explain where the extra 6.5 points came from?
How well backed is Hoey by local Labour party, she seems a lone voice among the London Labour MPs that Farage Thames stunt may damage her ....wouldnt be surprised if local activists arent keen to turn out for her, saying that however her views on fox hunting didnt seem to be a previous problem?
How well backed is Hoey by local Labour party, she seems a lone voice among the London Labour MPs that Farage Thames stunt may damage her ....wouldnt be surprised if local activists arent keen to turn out for her, saying that however her views on fox hunting didnt seem to be a previous problem?
Hmm. On the basis of those polls the Tories and the LDs seem to have gone up by 11.3 points between them since 2015, and Labour and UKIP to have gone down by 4.8.
Can anyone explain where the extra 6.5 points came from?
Are you sure you are not comparing them with the GE result which, unlike most polls, includes Northern Ireland?
Corbyn: 14% Right wing populism: 35% Failed Blairite coup last year: 51%
YouGov (May 5)
They have of course fed people the reasons to choose from (presumably just these three) in a pick-from list. Also not clear whether this is just Labour voters (which would be more logical; it could even be just members, as YG has a good database of party members) or everyone.
Corbyn: 14% Right wing populism: 35% Failed Blairite coup last year: 51%
YouGov (May 5)
They have of course fed people the reasons to choose from (presumably just these three) in a pick-from list. Also not clear whether this is just Labour voters (which would be more logical; it could even be just members, as YG has a good database of party members) or everyone.
I have been pondering this week's results in Scotland , and am now inclining to the view that the SNP will struggle to hold 40 seats on June 8th. I expect them to lose seats to each of the three pro-Union parties.
Serious question. What device is used to signal a Scottish Labour Surge?
If what you were saying is true why was one of Boris' very first foreign engagements as FM a hurriedly prepared trip to meet Erdogan and re-affirm support for their EU membership ambitions? Does that not indicate that the UK's support for Turkish entry was far more than just a fig leaf?
I admit that events since the referendum have made accession in the near future unlikely, but to pretend that wasn't the end-game is completely disingenuous.
I'm sorry, you don't know anything about Cypriot politics. Any Cypriot politician that signed an accession treaty (and it requires a treaty) would be a dead man. And I don't just mean "would destroy his political chances", I mean he would would be killed.
Do you mean Greek Cypriot politicians? - the Island consists of two ethnic Cypriot groups (well three actually) but Greek and Turkish Cypriots - people a re quick to forget the 30% of the population who are not Greek Cypriot
On the '51%' could be either Male (48%) (prev YouGov) or Female (47%) Con VI tipping into majority - tho my initial guess C2DE (44%) seems like too much of a stretch - Midlands/Wales (49%) also a candidate. 'Right to Leave (46%) would be a surprise, but not impossible.
Corbyn: 14% Right wing populism: 35% Failed Blairite coup last year: 51%
YouGov (May 5)
They have of course fed people the reasons to choose from (presumably just these three) in a pick-from list. Also not clear whether this is just Labour voters (which would be more logical; it could even be just members, as YG has a good database of party members) or everyone.
Corbyn: 14% Right wing populism: 35% Failed Blairite coup last year: 51%
YouGov (May 5)
They have of course fed people the reasons to choose from (presumably just these three) in a pick-from list. Also not clear whether this is just Labour voters (which would be more logical; it could even be just members, as YG has a good database of party members) or everyone.
Corbyn: 14% Right wing populism: 35% Failed Blairite coup last year: 51%
YouGov (May 5)
They have of course fed people the reasons to choose from (presumably just these three) in a pick-from list. Also not clear whether this is just Labour voters (which would be more logical; it could even be just members, as YG has a good database of party members) or everyone.
Corbyn: 14% Right wing populism: 35% Failed Blairite coup last year: 51%
YouGov (May 5)
They have of course fed people the reasons to choose from (presumably just these three) in a pick-from list. Also not clear whether this is just Labour voters (which would be more logical; it could even be just members, as YG has a good database of party members) or everyone.
Comments
what do we think of this. If he is running to be Dem nomination he needs to make sure Facebook pays all it's taxes. Their membership are going left now. Think we will see a left wing version of the Tea party. Personally I would like to see Rep. Joseph Kennedy III run even though he is just a House member and from New England, trump proved the old adages remain true until they don't.
There is a core Labour vote of 25ish, plus 5 who positively like Corbyn, or dislike May, or worry about a Tory landslide. It's not surprising (or, of course, enough to win unless it improves).
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/860900613231652870
Remember the Scottish Independence Referendum!
Slough MP Fiona Mactaggart accused Labour chiefs of flouting party rules that say a female candidate must succeed a woman MP who steps down.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4480784/Legal-threat-male-candidate-selection.html
Can anyone explain where the extra 6.5 points came from?
On reasons for Labour losses at local elections:
Corbyn: 14%
Right wing populism: 35%
Failed Blairite coup last year: 51%
YouGov (May 5)
They have of course fed people the reasons to choose from (presumably just these three) in a pick-from list. Also not clear whether this is just Labour voters (which would be more logical; it could even be just members, as YG has a good database of party members) or everyone.
SPOOF TWITTER
https://twitter.com/BrianElects/status/860951891123089408
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/conservatives-cause-shock-landing-triple-10360595
With her Poll Tax, Margaret Thatcher oversaw the demise of Tory Scotland; with her Indyref 2, Nicola Sturgeon has overseen its revival.
https://stephendaisley.com/2017/05/06/stuck-in-the-middle-with-ruth/