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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s battle grounds – the seats that are being defended

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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    M,kay...

    @maggieNYT: The "Clinton might run again" word among a small group of Dems began in earnest after her @camanpour intvu. Now this http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/04/hillary-clinton-launch-political-group-237999
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    Alistair said:

    Despite knowing nothing about French politics and betting pocket change I will make £70 on this French election - mostly from a well timed ride on the Melenchon train, on @34, off @10

    I am a beneficiary of a tip from @rcs1000 on Macron at 17/1 in the comments last November. That's another £300 to plow back into GE2017 tomorrow...

    As always, thank you to everyone here for your knowledge and wit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,128
    Scott_P said:

    M,kay...

    @maggieNYT: The "Clinton might run again" word among a small group of Dems began in earnest after her @camanpour intvu. Now this http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/04/hillary-clinton-launch-political-group-237999

    I expect there will eventually be headlines saying "Clinton might walk again".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282
    Scott_P said:

    M,kay...

    @maggieNYT: The "Clinton might run again" word among a small group of Dems began in earnest after her @camanpour intvu. Now this http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/04/hillary-clinton-launch-political-group-237999

    Trump vs. Clinton rematch 2020?
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    One of the oddest things about Arsenal fans who aren't from London (which is many of them) is why they hate Spurs. The rivalry is pretty intense if you live here, sure. Round my way pretty much everyone is one or the other. But if you are an Arsenal fan from, say, Basingstoke, why hate Spurs? Why would you care about a territorial dispute if you don't live in or are not from north London?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited May 2017
    ydoethur said:

    It was the members of the European Council nicknamed him Druncker, not the media. He has a problem. That is why I said that anything discussed with him over dinner will probably be forgotten or remembered wrongly. Of course, it does beg the question of why it wasn't a proper meeting rather than a meal. Frankly, that in itself suggests either Theresa May was hoping to shaft him (my autocorrect turned that into 'shag!' :hushed:) or that she has rather poor judgment - neither being a reassuring thought.
    I kind of assume that dinners and "proper meetings" both have an important place in diplomatic relations (though you are the historian, not me).

    Difficult to say this without sounding pompous, so feck it, I'll sound pompous - if I were instructing a solicitor, accountant or whatever, and discovered that the senior partner in the practice was a Juncker-level drunk, I'd withdraw those instructions immediately on the grounds that if people can't keep their own house in order, why trust them to keep mine? Juncker is all on his own a sufficient reason for Brexit.

    And please nobody say Churchill, that's an infallible way to spot a drunk on the internet and Juncker ain't no Churchill. (The other way is when wine goes up 40p in the budget and people say "ooooh but this merely penalises responsible middle class social drinkers like me, because all the alcoholics will carry on regardless").
  • kle4 said:

    No more spoilers - I've just ordered a copy.
    Non - promise. I wont spoil one of my favourite books for you.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    I expect there will eventually be headlines saying "Clinton might walk again".
    Your hatred for Hillary and love of Trump is one of the most bizarre things about PB. In all other matters you seem sane. Intelligent even.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited May 2017
    bobajobPB said:

    One of the oddest things about Arsenal fans who aren't from London (which is many of them) is why they hate Spurs. The rivalry is pretty intense if you live here, sure. Round my way pretty much everyone is one or the other. But if you are an Arsenal fan from, say, Basingstoke, why hate Spurs? Why would you care about a territorial dispute if you don't live in or are not from north London?

    Ask TimB (who lives in Atlanta) why, as a Cowboys fan he hates the Redskins. Or perhaps me (a Yankees fan, who lives in DC area ) why I hate the Red Sox.

    The obvious reason is that the sense of tribal belonging transcends location, and hence so does the sense of 'other' (non-tribe), particularly in relation to the principal 'other' (tribe).

    In short, it is about the tribes, not the locations.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Kle4

    Neither would receive the nominations, were Corbyn to resign (he won't however).
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    tlg86 said:

    No, I voted leave. One of my friends who I go to football with went to Campbell's return to WHL in November 2001. He says he's never seen anything else quite like it.
    You are forgiven! We shouldn't quarrel about religion 22 grown men kicking a ball around! :smiley:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001
    bobajobPB said:

    Kle4

    Neither would receive the nominations, were Corbyn to resign (he won't however).

    Nevertheless, that membership would presumably pick the worst (as I see it) candidate they could.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    MTimT said:

    Ask TimB (who lives in Atlanta) why, as a Cowboys fan he hates the Redskins. Or perhaps me (a Yankees fan, who lives in DC area ) why I hate the Red Sox.

    The obvious reason is that the sense of tribal belonging transcends location, and hence so does the sense of 'other' (non-tribe), particularly in relation to the principal 'other' (tribe).

    In short, it is about the tribes, not the locations.
    @Tim_B is a Cowboys fan? Methinks he has denied that on more than a few occasions...
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Feet up, campaign finished... and relax.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    RobD said:

    Trump vs. Clinton rematch 2020?
    God save us! I'd rather see Weiner vs Cruz
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    bobajobPB said:

    Kle4

    Neither would receive the nominations, were Corbyn to resign (he won't however).

    I wouldn't expect the public at large to understand that.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    TimT

    That is not a comparable analogy at all as those teams you mention are not in the same city, nowhere near each other in fact. The north London rivalry is essentially a territorial dispute. Why would you care about that if you were an out-of-towner?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    A mixture I think. En Marche claims to have over 200 000 members. Not bad for a party 13 months old.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-macron-idUSKBN1684JE

    Talk about breaking the mold!
    His ideas, Cut Spending, Cut Taxes, and Deregulate, without all the socially conservative nonsense normally associated with the 'right' should make a Libertarian like me happy.

    But I fell bemused by him, almost cold, I'm not shore if that's because I can't see ham actually caring it out? or because I am envies of him (and France)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,128
    bobajobPB said:

    Your hatred for Hillary and love of Trump is one of the most bizarre things about PB. In all other matters you seem sane. Intelligent even.
    I don't hate her and I wanted her to win in 2008.

    I've got a bad rep as a Trump fan really. It started out mainly as a disinterested prediction that he was going to win, and there were many aspects of his candidature that I found a breath of fresh air, despite his flaws. The fact that he defeated the entire political establishment in both US parties is still one of the most incredible achievements in electoral history.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Three Quidder

    Maybe not - but all the possible candidates would be visibly better than Corbyn.

    It's hypothetical anyway - he won't quit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    bobajobPB said:

    It's a vast improvement on Corbyn.
    He has been an utter Jezaster.

    And with that little witticism, nos da.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,671
    Clinton just keeps hanging around like a bad smell. Just fuck off and let someone else in so we can be rid of Trump.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    notme said:

    Feet up, campaign finished... and relax.

    But there's still 45 minutes to go, get out there... :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001
    MaxPB said:

    Clinton just keeps hanging around like a bad smell. Just fuck off and let someone else in so we can be rid of Trump.

    Chelsea?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,812
    Pulpstar said:

    Is your ward a solid Labour one or more Tory tho
    It is Independent, but very Tory if you get my drift.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    bobajobPB said:

    Three Quidder

    Maybe not - but all the possible candidates would be visibly better than Corbyn.

    It's hypothetical anyway - he won't quit.

    I agree with that.

    But this is a fun hypothetical game to play. If he did quit, would potential leaders even declare during the GE campaign? If they did, wouldn't that mean that Labour were fighting a leadership election rather than a general election, leaving the field totally open for the Tories? It would certainly underline the "stable" message.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Completely off topic (but go LibDems!), and treating it with due disrespect, I had a brief play with anagrams for,

    "Take back control".

    Amongst myriad possibilities my favourite is the grammatically flawed

    "Bolock trance-akt"

    Should one be worried about the missing "el" there is only one.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    BigRich said:

    His ideas, Cut Spending, Cut Taxes, and Deregulate, without all the socially conservative nonsense normally associated with the 'right' should make a Libertarian like me happy.

    But I fell bemused by him, almost cold, I'm not shore if that's because I can't see ham actually caring it out? or because I am envies of him (and France)
    I think that you have to allow for starting point. The French state is rather bloated, even significant shrinkage would have it bigger than us.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,247

    Poll puts En Marche on as many as 280 Assembly seats. It may not be co-habitation at all.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/860046035090939904

    The Socialists almost disappear.

    IMO, the real problem for En Marche is half its candidates have no experience. That means they'll get some flakey people , who get caught up in scandal, resign in a huff etc.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I agree with that.

    But this is a fun hypothetical game to play. If he did quit, would potential leaders even declare during the GE campaign? If they did, wouldn't that mean that Labour were fighting a leadership election rather than a general election, leaving the field totally open for the Tories? It would certainly underline the "stable" message.
    Watson would be leader, surely.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SunPolitics: Lifelong Labour supporter and Apprentice star Michelle Dewberry standing for Parliament in Hull – because Jeremy C… https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3483623/3483623/
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    kle4 said:

    Nevertheless, that membership would presumably pick the worst (as I see it) candidate they could.
    The big problem that the membership would have is the lack of actual possible leaders to choose from. Indeed when considering the number of Cabinet/shadow cabinet members SLab has contributed over the last 40 years looking at this years list of candidates standing in Scotland is quite shocking.

    http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/blog/entry/general-election-2017-candidates1

    It is quite noticeable that unlike the Libdems where a number of prominent people in the 2010-15 parliament are standing again Labour, at least in Scotland, seem to have almost nobody trying to regain their seat.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @SunPolitics: Lifelong Labour supporter and Apprentice star Michelle Dewberry standing for Parliament in Hull – because Jeremy C… https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3483623/3483623/

    The arrogance that it’s a safe Labour seat astounds me. I want to challenge this idea of ‘tribal voting’

    So many do. But then they tick the safe box again and again.

    the Conservatives do not have the “best interests of the seat in their hearts”.

    “The Tories promise us Brexit which is great. But many people here will struggle with the brand and their other policies.


    Interesting the struggle with the brand is listed first.

    Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282
    New thread!
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705

    Watson would be leader, surely.
    No shit sherlock!

    Had to be said.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    edited May 2017

    Turnout described as slow when I voted after work.

    I think we vote at the same polling station - the church hall at the top of The Walk in Potters Bar.

    I went in at 4.30pm - they said pretty slow but also that increasing numbers have postal votes - quite a lot of elderly in the area - so turnout is actually higher than it might appear.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Watson would be leader, surely.
    Interim, sure (unless he turned it down, in which case the NEC would pick an interim leader from the shadow cabinet). There would still be an election for a permanent leader in the autumn.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Any exit polls at 10pm?

    Ah yes, Britain to leave the EU.
This discussion has been closed.