politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marine Le Pen goes into the final 2 days behind in every Frenc
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marine Le Pen goes into the final 2 days behind in every French region except the one most favoured by Brit migrants
Although it is polling day in parts of the UK the election that’s attracting the most bets (£25m matched so far on Betfair) is the final round for the French Presidency.
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First?0
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Vanilla ate my first! Second like Le Pen?0
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Ooh - 2 firsts in a day, First time I've ever been first to vote at my polling station and now first on a thread. Heady stuff.0
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Fourth!0
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First prediction for the French parliamentary election (sorry, long post)
Opinionway for Les Echos polled Metropolitan France - which accounts for 535 constituencies out of 577 (the rest is 27 for overseas territories, 11 for French citizens abroad and 4 for Corsica)
It combined the poll results with a sort of Baxter-like model taking into account results of 2012 and 2017 presidentiallections + regional elections of 2015
The model also gives a bonus to incumbents and estimâtes turnout at 60%.
les Echos did not give the poll resulst themselves but only the seats estimâtes, as follows:
En Marche - 249 to 286 [overall majority is 289]
Républicains + UDI - 200 to 210
Front National - 15 to 25
Socialists + Greens - 28 to 43
Far-left (Mélenchon) - 6 to 8
They base this forecast on the following 2d round prédictions:
- 90 to 116 EM vs FN
- 180 EM vs Républicains
- 46 EM / left (socialists or far-left)
- 154 Républicains vs FN
- 6 to 32 EM vs left
- 32 three-way contests between EM vs Républicains vs FN
(all candidates getting 12.5% of registered voters in the first round are qualified for the second)
It seems very optimistic for En Marche (especially as nobody knows yet who their candidates will be and even who Macron wants to name PM or Minister), around the expectations for the FN, a bit below expectation for the right and beyond disastrous for the left.
FWIW a purely proportional national assembly based on the presidential first round with a 5% threshold would be: EM 152, FN 135, Républicains 126, Far left 124, Socialists 400 -
Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.0
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The odds on this are still incomprehensible, last night was Macron's final fence and the horse 30 lengths behind laboured over it badly.0
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Morning again all
It was so much easier when the morning thread went up at 6am...
FPT....
Perhaps someone can help old Stodge out here with the truth (or something near it):
I thought there were only two net contributors to the EU Budget - Germany and the United Kingdom.
If that is so, our departure will have a serious financial impact on the EU and some states which have hitherto either been neutral or small beneficiaries will have to become net contributors (with the domestic political impact that might or might not have). The alternative is Germany will have to pick up the slack and become an even greater contributor.
The "Divorce Bill" is clearly a way for those who will become contributors or who will have to become smaller net beneficiaries to have the bitter pill sweetened. It's analogous to a football team being relegated from the Premiership and no longer getting the media rights income they used to have but getting an interim "parachute payment" to soften the financial blow.
As to whether it's a bill the United Kingdom could or should pay, I don't have a view because I don't have sight of our contractual and other financial obligations. Legally, I imagine, we would have to meet so or there is a clause which allows us to break with a payment of some sort. To imagine we can leave without any kind of payment is naïve, to assume we have to pay for everyone else's dinner is equally foolish.0 -
Interesting. Does mean that they believe it can be postponed or moved?IanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
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BooIanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
Hope they pay out early on the day though, surely they must realise that most political bettors are going to put their winnings straight back on other bets on a general election day?
Is there any mechanism by which it can't now happen, given Parliament is already dissolved? And if so, could it conceivably be postponed for more than six months?0 -
Here is the full reply:Beverley_C said:
Interesting. Does mean that they believe it can be postponed or moved?IanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
Unfortunately Ian the traders decision is that the bets are not to be settled until the election has officially taken place on June 8th. Appologies for the delay but should there be issues and the election be delayed then the early settlement would cause many issues , this is a risk that for the sake of the customers we are not willing to take by settling early0 -
It could be, if WW3 broke out I suppose. When you run an exchange you need to settle on hard facts - black swans can break out even if they are several million to one against.Beverley_C said:
Interesting. Does mean that they believe it can be postponed or moved?IanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
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Pulpstar said:
The odds on this are still incomprehensible, last night was Macron's final fence and the horse 30 lengths behind laboured over it badly.</blockquote
Incomprehensible but a great opportunity for anyone wanting more than 10% return over three days...0 -
Renders rather amusing all those comments here last night that Le Pen was 'slaughtering' Macron.
Lost in translation, perhaps ?0 -
I win whatever happens now. Thanks to PB, I have followed this closely - the ups and downs -and ended up green.
Still, would have been nice to see an massive upset due to Fillon and thus Juppe going on to win: that would have been a pay-out!!!0 -
FPT
Le Pen won more than one in five French votes the other day. She may win two in five on Sunday. Let that sink in.OllyT said:My thoughts exactly, out last night, didn't see the debate so just had a brief look at the comments before turning in - Chestnut, Moniker etc were assuring us Macron was being slaughtered. Wake up this morning to find 63% thought Macron had won. Serves has a reminder how far to the right PB now is and definitely worth bearing in mind in a betting context.
She is much further ahead than Farage and co ever achieved over here in a mainstream election and France is drifting to the extremes.
Macron polled just 24% - the second worst polling in a primary in over sixty years. He's the default, 'oh I suppose he'll have to do' candidate rather than someone possessing a compelling vision.
Approximately seven weeks ago, Rutte won the Dutch election - but his coalition was absolutely hammered, just like the two main French parties. Wilders, who lost, actually gained. The Dutch are, I believe, still without a coalition.
Europe is gradually coming apart with it's splintered electorates, with the inflexibility and inability to reform the EU being the key reason.
Macron seems to be a nothing candidate serving up vacuous Blairite tripe. That isn't advocating for Le Pen, it's believing that they appear to have an appalling choice that will neither help France or Europe.
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FPT
The exit bill is hugely important to the EU because they are experts at kicking the can down the road. The EU is facing troubling times at present and the last thing it needs is the smaller nations crying foul at the next budget summit.
They can avoid telling the likes of Poland* they'll be getting less money if they can get an enormous amount of exit money from the UK to see them through the next five years.
*I'm not picking on Poland unfairly. The Polish economy gets no favours from Shengen. The Polish economy loses a swathe of its young, ambitious, educated workforce through migration to the richer nations. This drives down the working class wages here and leaves a hole to be filled in the Polish economy through EU funding. Not an efficient long-term system in my view.0 -
Heh I'm quite deep in for my normal staking to be honest.Chris_from_Paris said:Pulpstar said:The odds on this are still incomprehensible, last night was Macron's final fence and the horse 30 lengths behind laboured over it badly.
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Well we seem to be agreed already that the sad demise of HMQ wouldn't stop it, so WWIII would appear to be the only remaining swan? And I'd have thought that in the event of war we would need some sort of Parliament pdq?Pulpstar said:
It could be, if WW3 broke out I suppose. When you run an exchange you need to settle on hard facts - black swans can break out even if they are several million to one against.Beverley_C said:
Interesting. Does mean that they believe it can be postponed or moved?IanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
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DaveHillOnLondon (@DaveHill)
03/05/2017, 15:49
Guest article: Garden Bridges that might have been (and could still be)
https://onlondon.co.uk/2017/05/03/guest-article-garden-bridges-that-might-have-been-and-could-still-be/0 -
It's hard to see Les Républicains not supporting Macron's economic reforms, even if they feel they do not go far enough. His real problems would come if the left took control, which looks to be a highly unlikely scenario.Chris_from_Paris said:First prediction for the French parliamentary election (sorry, long post)
Opinionway for Les Echos polled Metropolitan France - which accounts for 535 constituencies out of 577 (the rest is 27 for overseas territories, 11 for French citizens abroad and 4 for Corsica)
It combined the poll results with a sort of Baxter-like model taking into account results of 2012 and 2017 presidentiallections + regional elections of 2015
The model also gives a bonus to incumbents and estimâtes turnout at 60%.
les Echos did not give the poll resulst themselves but only the seats estimâtes, as follows:
En Marche - 249 to 286 [overall majority is 289]
Républicains + UDI - 200 to 210
Front National - 15 to 25
Socialists + Greens - 28 to 43
Far-left (Mélenchon) - 6 to 8
They base this forecast on the following 2d round prédictions:
- 90 to 116 EM vs FN
- 180 EM vs Républicains
- 46 EM / left (socialists or far-left)
- 154 Républicains vs FN
- 6 to 32 EM vs left
- 32 three-way contests between EM vs Républicains vs FN
(all candidates getting 12.5% of registered voters in the first round are qualified for the second)
It seems very optimistic for En Marche (especially as nobody knows yet who their candidates will be and even who Macron wants to name PM or Minister), around the expectations for the FN, a bit below expectation for the right and beyond disastrous for the left.
FWIW a purely proportional national assembly based on the presidential first round with a 5% threshold would be: EM 152, FN 135, Républicains 126, Far left 124, Socialists 40
I asked this yesterday and did not see an answer: what happens if the French president dies or is forced to stand down for some reason? Is there an election or a replacement?
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That seems reasonable. It is only a few weeks in any case.IanB2 said:
Here is the full reply:Beverley_C said:
Interesting. Does mean that they believe it can be postponed or moved?IanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
Unfortunately Ian the traders decision is that the bets are not to be settled until the election has officially taken place on June 8th. Appologies for the delay but should there be issues and the election be delayed then the early settlement would cause many issues , this is a risk that for the sake of the customers we are not willing to take by settling early0 -
Where is the evidence this has anything to do with the inflexibility of the EU? The social and economic factors leading to disillusion and fragmentation post-2008 are already well rehearsed, and of course the US is seeing the same.chestnut said:FPT
Le Pen won more than one in five French votes the other day. She may win two in five on Sunday. Let that sink in.OllyT said:My thoughts exactly, out last night, didn't see the debate so just had a brief look at the comments before turning in - Chestnut, Moniker etc were assuring us Macron was being slaughtered. Wake up this morning to find 63% thought Macron had won. Serves has a reminder how far to the right PB now is and definitely worth bearing in mind in a betting context.
She is much further ahead than Farage and co ever achieved over here in a mainstream election and France is drifting to the extremes.
Macron polled just 24% - the second worst polling in a primary in over sixty years. He's the default, 'oh I suppose he'll have to do' candidate rather than someone possessing a compelling vision.
Approximately seven weeks ago, Rutte won the Dutch election - but his coalition was absolutely hammered, just like the two main French parties. Wilders, who lost, actually gained. The Dutch are, I believe, still without a coalition.
Europe is gradually coming apart with it's splintered electorates, with the inflexibility and inability to reform the EU being the key reason.
Macron seems to be a nothing candidate serving up vacuous Blairite tripe. That isn't advocating for Le Pen, it's believing that they appear to have an appalling choice that will neither help France or Europe.0 -
Ye even if anything untoward happened to any of the candidates it would still go ahead, its not a presidential race.IanB2 said:
Well we seem to be agreed already that the sad demise of HMQ wouldn't stop it, so WWIII would appear to be the only remaining swan? And I'd have thought that in the event of war we would need some sort of Parliament pdq?Pulpstar said:
It could be, if WW3 broke out I suppose. When you run an exchange you need to settle on hard facts - black swans can break out even if they are several million to one against.Beverley_C said:
Interesting. Does mean that they believe it can be postponed or moved?IanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
I placed a bet on Berlusconi NOT to lead his old party with Paddy back in 2013.
It'll win, but they're waiting till the Italian election for the payout. Odds were 4-7, so a decent & safe return.0 -
First, apologies to FF43 for carrying his comment FPT but I thought the points made were worth keeping and considering.FF43 said:
The EU consensus is that Brexit harms both sides (and therefore won't be a "success"). They want to ensure as much as possible of the inevitable damage falls on the UK side, not theirs. They don't want to stop us leaving. On the contrary they want us to get rid of us with the minimum collateral damage. They want a deal and they think they can call the shots on that.
We're the ones that need to keep the relationship going. It is also in the EU's interest, but maintaining the integrity of the EU is their first priority; Brexit damage limitation is also a priority; a relationship with a brexited UK not a priority at all.
I think that's a fair summation albeit a shade bleak. Neither the EU nor the UK, for all the posturing, wants a mutually disadvantageous or damaging process. Neither economic bloc can endure a painful self-enforced period of recession and retrenchment just to make a narrow nationalistic point.
The art of deal making in politics is to recognise the areas where the other side needs a win and make them pay for it by ensuring they capitulate in the areas where you want or need a win. Both sides then focus on their "wins" and gloss over the areas where they have had to give away and everyone walks away until the deal unravels.
The crux for the EU is that while accepting the United Kingdom has made its decision to leave, the corollary is that process has to be made so unappetising as to be a deterrent for any and all future potential leavers. That will colour the process but not necessarily the future relationship.
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Brits in France unable to vote for Le Pen or Macron, shock.
https://www.angloinfo.com/how-to/france/moving/voting
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Roger must be mortified
I expect he'll sell up and move to Calais to minister to Brits fleeing Brexitannia...0 -
Upon the death, removal, or resignation of the President, the President of the Senate takes over as acting president.SouthamObserver said:
It's hard to see Les Républicains not supporting Macron's economic reforms, even if they feel they do not go far enough. His real problems would come if the left took control, which looks to be a highly unlikely scenario.Chris_from_Paris said:First prediction for the French parliamentary election (sorry, long post)
Opinionway for Les Echos polled Metropolitan France - which accounts for 535 constituencies out of 577 (the rest is 27 for overseas territories, 11 for French citizens abroad and 4 for Corsica)
It combined the poll results with a sort of Baxter-like model taking into account results of 2012 and 2017 presidentiallections + regional elections of 2015
The model also gives a bonus to incumbents and estimâtes turnout at 60%.
les Echos did not give the poll resulst themselves but only the seats estimâtes, as follows:
En Marche - 249 to 286 [overall majority is 289]
Républicains + UDI - 200 to 210
Front National - 15 to 25
Socialists + Greens - 28 to 43
Far-left (Mélenchon) - 6 to 8
They base this forecast on the following 2d round prédictions:
- 90 to 116 EM vs FN
- 180 EM vs Républicains
- 46 EM / left (socialists or far-left)
- 154 Républicains vs FN
- 6 to 32 EM vs left
- 32 three-way contests between EM vs Républicains vs FN
(all candidates getting 12.5% of registered voters in the first round are qualified for the second)
It seems very optimistic for En Marche (especially as nobody knows yet who their candidates will be and even who Macron wants to name PM or Minister), around the expectations for the FN, a bit below expectation for the right and beyond disastrous for the left.
FWIW a purely proportional national assembly based on the presidential first round with a 5% threshold would be: EM 152, FN 135, Républicains 126, Far left 124, Socialists 40
I asked this yesterday and did not see an answer: what happens if the French president dies or is forced to stand down for some reason? Is there an election or a replacement?
The first round of a new presidential election must be organised no sooner than twenty days and no later than thirty-five days following the vacancy of the presidency. Meanwhile the Interim president is not allowed to dismiss the national assembly nor are they allowed to call for a referendum or initiate any constitutional changes.0 -
Is HMQ about to start a new Jacobite rebellion?0
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So, what do we think the Royal announcement is going to be? Meeting at 10am followed by public statement.
We know it isn't a Royal death or abdication, so:
Resignation or retirement of very senior aide
Major public event announcement
Harry's engagement to a divorcee
Divorce of Charles or William
Some boring internal reshuffle
Selloff of part of the Estate
Any other possibles?0 -
It may have already been pointed out, but didn't foot and mouth postpone local elections? Some form of highly contagious disease could do it. Bleak, I know.IanB2 said:
Well we seem to be agreed already that the sad demise of HMQ wouldn't stop it, so WWIII would appear to be the only remaining swan? And I'd have thought that in the event of war we would need some sort of Parliament pdq?Pulpstar said:
It could be, if WW3 broke out I suppose. When you run an exchange you need to settle on hard facts - black swans can break out even if they are several million to one against.Beverley_C said:
Interesting. Does mean that they believe it can be postponed or moved?IanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
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She's going to endorse Jeremy Corbyn as PM.GIN1138 said:Is HMQ about to start a new Jacobite rebellion?
HMQ thinks Theresa May is going to start a war with her rhetoric.0 -
Brave considering Jezza has pledged to get rid of her is he becomes PM...TheScreamingEagles said:
She's going to endorse Jeremy Corbyn as PM.GIN1138 said:Is HMQ about to start a new Jacobite rebellion?
HMQ thinks Theresa May is going to start a war with her rhetoric.0 -
Good morning all.IanB2 said:
Where is the evidence this has anything to do with the inflexibility of the EU? The social and economic factors leading to disillusion and fragmentation post-2008 are already well rehearsed, and of course the US is seeing the same.chestnut said:FPT
Le Pen won more than one in five French votes the other day. She may win two in five on Sunday. Let that sink in.OllyT said:My thoughts exactly, out last night, didn't see the debate so just had a brief look at the comments before turning in - Chestnut, Moniker etc were assuring us Macron was being slaughtered. Wake up this morning to find 63% thought Macron had won. Serves has a reminder how far to the right PB now is and definitely worth bearing in mind in a betting context.
She is much further ahead than Farage and co ever achieved over here in a mainstream election and France is drifting to the extremes.
Macron polled just 24% - the second worst polling in a primary in over sixty years. He's the default, 'oh I suppose he'll have to do' candidate rather than someone possessing a compelling vision.
Approximately seven weeks ago, Rutte won the Dutch election - but his coalition was absolutely hammered, just like the two main French parties. Wilders, who lost, actually gained. The Dutch are, I believe, still without a coalition.
Europe is gradually coming apart with it's splintered electorates, with the inflexibility and inability to reform the EU being the key reason.
Macron seems to be a nothing candidate serving up vacuous Blairite tripe. That isn't advocating for Le Pen, it's believing that they appear to have an appalling choice that will neither help France or Europe.
I think the EU malaise is ending. The economic numbers are looking very perky, which is good news for us as well. They still have (by UK standards) very high levels of unemployment, but those levels are falling. I'd expect support for the EU to grow, not diminish.
The UK PMI numbers have also been very good this month. Irrespective of where people stand on Brexit, the longer the next recession can be deferred, the better.0 -
True. I suppose there is also something like this (maybe a job for Ms Miller?):dixiedean said:
It may have already been pointed out, but didn't foot and mouth postpone local elections? Some form of highly contagious disease could do it. Bleak, I know.IanB2 said:
Well we seem to be agreed already that the sad demise of HMQ wouldn't stop it, so WWIII would appear to be the only remaining swan? And I'd have thought that in the event of war we would need some sort of Parliament pdq?Pulpstar said:
It could be, if WW3 broke out I suppose. When you run an exchange you need to settle on hard facts - black swans can break out even if they are several million to one against.Beverley_C said:
Interesting. Does mean that they believe it can be postponed or moved?IanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/showthread.php?t=87819
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I have to say I think it is a shame the corruption allegations scuttled Fillon as I think he would have been the best candidate to reform France
Stodge - there are currently 12 net contributors to the EU budget and 15 net recipients
Germany and the UK are the largest net contributors, although Denmark, Sweden and Netherlands have a larger per capita net contribution:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8036097.stm#start0 -
Yes, in 2001 F&M postponed the local elections - but primary legislation was required to be passed in the Lords and Commons to enable the postponement by a month. I'm not sure there's any mechanism by which Parliament can be recalled if it's already been dissolved.dixiedean said:
It may have already been pointed out, but didn't foot and mouth postpone local elections? Some form of highly contagious disease could do it. Bleak, I know.IanB2 said:
Well we seem to be agreed already that the sad demise of HMQ wouldn't stop it, so WWIII would appear to be the only remaining swan? And I'd have thought that in the event of war we would need some sort of Parliament pdq?Pulpstar said:
It could be, if WW3 broke out I suppose. When you run an exchange you need to settle on hard facts - black swans can break out even if they are several million to one against.Beverley_C said:
Interesting. Does mean that they believe it can be postponed or moved?IanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
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Queen moving to Paris? Living in her Uncle's old apartment in Neuilly-sur-Seine?Sandpit said:So, what do we think the Royal announcement is going to be? Meeting at 10am followed by public statement.
We know it isn't a Royal death or abdication, so:
Resignation or retirement of very senior aide
Major public event announcement
Harry's engagement to a divorcee
Divorce of Charles or William
Some boring internal reshuffle
Selloff of part of the Estate
Any other possibles?
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Morning all.
Re HMQ - Charles has given up and passing it on to William?0 -
I guess we can all ignore this because it's CNN?
"... we are in a post-fact political world. And that is scary as hell."
Donald Trump just gave two incredibly bizarre (and fact-free) interviews
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/01/politics/donald-trump-andrew-jackson-wiretapping/index.html?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial
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Of course British migrants can't vote and I wonder if they're more attracted by the sun or the fascism. It's a tough call.0
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Phillip to retire?Sandpit said:So, what do we think the Royal announcement is going to be? Meeting at 10am followed by public statement.
We know it isn't a Royal death or abdication, so:
Resignation or retirement of very senior aide
Major public event announcement
Harry's engagement to a divorcee
Divorce of Charles or William
Some boring internal reshuffle
Selloff of part of the Estate
Any other possibles?
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These gloating " counting one's chickens " threads have become a PB ritual on the eve of the recurrent polling disasters of recent vintage.0
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Apparently there's a provision in The Civil Contingencies Act for this.Sandpit said:
Yes, in 2001 F&M postponed the local elections - but primary legislation was required to be passed in the Lords and Commons to enable the postponement by a month. I'm not sure there's any mechanism by which Parliament can be recalled if it's already been dissolved.dixiedean said:
It may have already been pointed out, but didn't foot and mouth postpone local elections? Some form of highly contagious disease could do it. Bleak, I know.IanB2 said:
Well we seem to be agreed already that the sad demise of HMQ wouldn't stop it, so WWIII would appear to be the only remaining swan? And I'd have thought that in the event of war we would need some sort of Parliament pdq?Pulpstar said:
It could be, if WW3 broke out I suppose. When you run an exchange you need to settle on hard facts - black swans can break out even if they are several million to one against.Beverley_C said:
Interesting. Does mean that they believe it can be postponed or moved?IanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
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Off topic: Anyone seen this https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/FD29/production/_95890846_clayton-blast-two.jpg
Excellent composition, sharp focus and the explosion doesn't wash out the clear blue sky. An amazingly timed surely photo of the year, RIP Spc Clayton0 -
John_M said:
The UK PMI numbers have also been very good this month. Irrespective of where people stand on Brexit, the longer the next recession can be deferred, the better.
I think that should be regarded as a truism
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For most of these you'd think local election day would be avoided for the announcement?RobinWiggs said:
Phillip to retire?Sandpit said:So, what do we think the Royal announcement is going to be? Meeting at 10am followed by public statement.
We know it isn't a Royal death or abdication, so:
Resignation or retirement of very senior aide
Major public event announcement
Harry's engagement to a divorcee
Divorce of Charles or William
Some boring internal reshuffle
Selloff of part of the Estate
Any other possibles?0 -
If a president dies the President of the Senate (currently Gerard Larcher - Les Republicains) immediately becomes President. This is also the case if the constitutional Council decides that the president is perantly impeached.SouthamObserver said:Chris_from_Paris said:
I asked this yesterday and did not see an answer: what happens if the French president dies or is forced to stand down for some reason? Is there an election or a replacement?
In both cases, a new election has to take place between 20 and 35 days later.
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The failure to adapt to both with the eurozone crisis and the migrant crisis.IanB2 said:Where is the evidence this has anything to do with the inflexibility of the EU?
The EU has been unable to agree a common immigration and asylum policy and it has individual countries that are straitjacketed into a currency that doesn't necessarily work for them.
When they proclaim that more Europe is the answer, they are correct - these things require full harmonisation and integration in order to work properly but they are unable to do it and the people show little sign of really wanting it.
They are neither a genuine union or independent states. The single market is not really a single market, citizens rights are not genuinely uniform.
They are stuck in no-man's land.0 -
I was commenting on your analysis of who was winning the debate last night not the virtues of Macron.chestnut said:FPT
Le Pen won more than one in five French votes the other day. She may win two in five on Sunday. Let that sink in.OllyT said:My thoughts exactly, out last night, didn't see the debate so just had a brief look at the comments before turning in - Chestnut, Moniker etc were assuring us Macron was being slaughtered. Wake up this morning to find 63% thought Macron had won. Serves has a reminder how far to the right PB now is and definitely worth bearing in mind in a betting context.
She is much further ahead than Farage and co ever achieved over here in a mainstream election and France is drifting to the extremes.
Macron polled just 24% - the second worst polling in a primary in over sixty years. He's the default, 'oh I suppose he'll have to do' candidate rather than someone possessing a compelling vision.
Approximately seven weeks ago, Rutte won the Dutch election - but his coalition was absolutely hammered, just like the two main French parties. Wilders, who lost, actually gained. The Dutch are, I believe, still without a coalition.
Europe is gradually coming apart with it's splintered electorates, with the inflexibility and inability to reform the EU being the key reason.
Macron seems to be a nothing candidate serving up vacuous Blairite tripe. That isn't advocating for Le Pen, it's believing that they appear to have an appalling choice that will neither help France or Europe.
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Pregnancy?RobinWiggs said:
Phillip to retire?Sandpit said:So, what do we think the Royal announcement is going to be? Meeting at 10am followed by public statement.
We know it isn't a Royal death or abdication, so:
Resignation or retirement of very senior aide
Major public event announcement
Harry's engagement to a divorcee
Divorce of Charles or William
Some boring internal reshuffle
Selloff of part of the Estate
Any other possibles?0 -
Unless you had planned the GE so that the next parliamentary term straddles the next downturn. Recession postponed from '18-19 to '21-22 would not be a good look for the Cons.John_M said:
Good morning all.IanB2 said:
Where is the evidence this has anything to do with the inflexibility of the EU? The social and economic factors leading to disillusion and fragmentation post-2008 are already well rehearsed, and of course the US is seeing the same.chestnut said:FPT
Le Pen won more than one in five French votes the other day. She may win two in five on Sunday. Let that sink in.OllyT said:My thoughts exactly, out last night, didn't see the debate so just had a brief look at the comments before turning in - Chestnut, Moniker etc were assuring us Macron was being slaughtered. Wake up this morning to find 63% thought Macron had won. Serves has a reminder how far to the right PB now is and definitely worth bearing in mind in a betting context.
She is much further ahead than Farage and co ever achieved over here in a mainstream election and France is drifting to the extremes.
Macron polled just 24% - the second worst polling in a primary in over sixty years. He's the default, 'oh I suppose he'll have to do' candidate rather than someone possessing a compelling vision.
Approximately seven weeks ago, Rutte won the Dutch election - but his coalition was absolutely hammered, just like the two main French parties. Wilders, who lost, actually gained. The Dutch are, I believe, still without a coalition.
Europe is gradually coming apart with it's splintered electorates, with the inflexibility and inability to reform the EU being the key reason.
Macron seems to be a nothing candidate serving up vacuous Blairite tripe. That isn't advocating for Le Pen, it's believing that they appear to have an appalling choice that will neither help France or Europe.
I think the EU malaise is ending. The economic numbers are looking very perky, which is good news for us as well. They still have (by UK standards) very high levels of unemployment, but those levels are falling. I'd expect support for the EU to grow, not diminish.
The UK PMI numbers have also been very good this month. Irrespective of where people stand on Brexit, the longer the next recession can be deferred, the better.0 -
winner winner chicken dinner.RobinWiggs said:
Phillip to retire?Sandpit said:So, what do we think the Royal announcement is going to be? Meeting at 10am followed by public statement.
We know it isn't a Royal death or abdication, so:
Resignation or retirement of very senior aide
Major public event announcement
Harry's engagement to a divorcee
Divorce of Charles or William
Some boring internal reshuffle
Selloff of part of the Estate
Any other possibles?0 -
Those are mostly opinions and don't explain why similar trends are seen in the US. The migrant crisis has its origins in North Africa and the Middle East and they'd be trying to come to Europe, EU or not. The Euro has its pros and cons but it is not making people vote for the political extremes, except (possibly and arguably) in Greece.chestnut said:
The failure to adapt to both with the eurozone crisis and the migrant crisis.IanB2 said:Where is the evidence this has anything to do with the inflexibility of the EU?
The EU has been unable to agree a common immigration and asylum policy and it has individual countries that are straitjacketed into a currency that doesn't necessarily work for them.
When they proclaim that more Europe is the answer, they are correct - these things require full harmonisation and integration in order to work properly but they are unable to do it and the people show little sign of really wanting it.
They are neither a genuine union or independent states. The single market is not really a single market, citizens rights are not genuinely uniform.
They are stuck in no-man's land.0 -
Postal Ballots should be stopped except for the infirm or those with holiday bookings over the elections.IanB2 said:
True. I suppose there is also something like this (maybe a job for Ms Miller?):dixiedean said:
It may have already been pointed out, but didn't foot and mouth postpone local elections? Some form of highly contagious disease could do it. Bleak, I know.IanB2 said:
Well we seem to be agreed already that the sad demise of HMQ wouldn't stop it, so WWIII would appear to be the only remaining swan? And I'd have thought that in the event of war we would need some sort of Parliament pdq?Pulpstar said:
It could be, if WW3 broke out I suppose. When you run an exchange you need to settle on hard facts - black swans can break out even if they are several million to one against.Beverley_C said:
Interesting. Does mean that they believe it can be postponed or moved?IanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/showthread.php?t=878190 -
My question is, assuming the guys about to get killed in front of her are ANA, has anyone asked their relatives if they are happy with this being shown..Pulpstar said:Off topic: Anyone seen this https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/FD29/production/_95890846_clayton-blast-two.jpg
Excellent composition, sharp focus and the explosion doesn't wash out the clear blue sky. An amazingly timed surely photo of the year, RIP Spc Clayton0 -
As has happened twice in the history of the Fifth Republic, in 1969 and 1974.Chris_from_Paris said:
If a president dies the President of the Senate (currently Gerard Larcher - Les Republicains) immediately becomes President. This is also the case if the constitutional Council decides that the president is perantly impeached.SouthamObserver said:Chris_from_Paris said:
I asked this yesterday and did not see an answer: what happens if the French president dies or is forced to stand down for some reason? Is there an election or a replacement?
In both cases, a new election has to take place between 20 and 35 days later.0 -
Now that would be a story, at his age!Blue_rog said:
Pregnancy?RobinWiggs said:
Phillip to retire?Sandpit said:So, what do we think the Royal announcement is going to be? Meeting at 10am followed by public statement.
We know it isn't a Royal death or abdication, so:
Resignation or retirement of very senior aide
Major public event announcement
Harry's engagement to a divorcee
Divorce of Charles or William
Some boring internal reshuffle
Selloff of part of the Estate
Any other possibles?0 -
Ah, that pernicious piece of Blair's legacy. Definitely one for the list of things that urgently need repeal.TheScreamingEagles said:
Apparently there's a provision in The Civil Contingencies Act for this.Sandpit said:
Yes, in 2001 F&M postponed the local elections - but primary legislation was required to be passed in the Lords and Commons to enable the postponement by a month. I'm not sure there's any mechanism by which Parliament can be recalled if it's already been dissolved.dixiedean said:
It may have already been pointed out, but didn't foot and mouth postpone local elections? Some form of highly contagious disease could do it. Bleak, I know.IanB2 said:
Well we seem to be agreed already that the sad demise of HMQ wouldn't stop it, so WWIII would appear to be the only remaining swan? And I'd have thought that in the event of war we would need some sort of Parliament pdq?Pulpstar said:
It could be, if WW3 broke out I suppose. When you run an exchange you need to settle on hard facts - black swans can break out even if they are several million to one against.Beverley_C said:
Interesting. Does mean that they believe it can be postponed or moved?IanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
0 -
You mean polling disasters like the 1st round of the French election ?MonikerDiCanio said:These gloating " counting one's chickens " threads have become a PB ritual on the eve of the recurrent polling disasters of recent vintage.
like Elabe who predicted
Macron 24 Le Pen 21.5 Fillon 20 and Mélenchon 19.5
when the result was Macron 24 Le Pen 21.3 Fillon 20 and Mélenchon 19.6 ?
0 -
Prince Philip is stepping down from public engagements from this autumn.
That's it.0 -
Never seen so much goalpost moving since Owen and the badgers.0
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That will always be a matter of individual opinion, rather than fact.OllyT said:I was commenting on your analysis of who was winning the debate last night not the virtues of Macron.
He did terribly when she was confronting him on immigration and social cohesion. He won on economics and finance.
0 -
We already have an heir and some spares....Blue_rog said:
Pregnancy?RobinWiggs said:
Phillip to retire?Sandpit said:So, what do we think the Royal announcement is going to be? Meeting at 10am followed by public statement.
We know it isn't a Royal death or abdication, so:
Resignation or retirement of very senior aide
Major public event announcement
Harry's engagement to a divorcee
Divorce of Charles or William
Some boring internal reshuffle
Selloff of part of the Estate
Any other possibles?0 -
I suggested that to my other half this morning. It makes sense, he is very old for a man now.TheScreamingEagles said:Prince Philip is stepping down from public engagements.
That's it.0 -
Philip to retire in the autumn - official
Aged 96. Fair play to him.0 -
Does that mean HMQ will be on her own when she reads out TM's Queens Speech in June?TheScreamingEagles said:Prince Philip is stepping down from public engagements from this autumn.
That's it.0 -
Still going to go for another six months though!
0 -
Don't try to bring sense into this debate. (Though there are more contributors - or else Germany would be more annoyed at everyone else I think!) All rage, all the time is the way.stodge said:Morning again all
It was so much easier when the morning thread went up at 6am...
FPT....
Perhaps someone can help old Stodge out here with the truth (or something near it):
I thought there were only two net contributors to the EU Budget - Germany and the United Kingdom.
If that is so, our departure will have a serious financial impact on the EU and some states which have hitherto either been neutral or small beneficiaries will have to become net contributors (with the domestic political impact that might or might not have). The alternative is Germany will have to pick up the slack and become an even greater contributor.
The "Divorce Bill" is clearly a way for those who will become contributors or who will have to become smaller net beneficiaries to have the bitter pill sweetened. It's analogous to a football team being relegated from the Premiership and no longer getting the media rights income they used to have but getting an interim "parachute payment" to soften the financial blow.
As to whether it's a bill the United Kingdom could or should pay, I don't have a view because I don't have sight of our contractual and other financial obligations. Legally, I imagine, we would have to meet so or there is a clause which allows us to break with a payment of some sort. To imagine we can leave without any kind of payment is naïve, to assume we have to pay for everyone else's dinner is equally foolish.0 -
It would be odd to announce something so routine on an election day when they could have either done it the day before or the day after.Slackbladder said:
winner winner chicken dinner.RobinWiggs said:
Phillip to retire?Sandpit said:So, what do we think the Royal announcement is going to be? Meeting at 10am followed by public statement.
We know it isn't a Royal death or abdication, so:
Resignation or retirement of very senior aide
Major public event announcement
Harry's engagement to a divorcee
Divorce of Charles or William
Some boring internal reshuffle
Selloff of part of the Estate
Any other possibles?0 -
Phillip to retire? Is that it? Was a meeting really necessary for this?0
-
Argh I could do with that market for GE year being settled early, I'm at a loss in it so it will help me with potential premium charge calcs in the short term.0
-
Given he'll be 96 this year, the bloke's has done his duty over 8 decades, including during wartime, he's entitled to this.0
-
I'm pretty sure the composition was unintentional. I found the two photos to be utterly chilling.Pulpstar said:Off topic: Anyone seen this https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/FD29/production/_95890846_clayton-blast-two.jpg
Excellent composition, sharp focus and the explosion doesn't wash out the clear blue sky. An amazingly timed surely photo of the year, RIP Spc Clayton
Edit: full story and other picture here.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-397989880 -
The same guy was interim president twice: Alain Poher. He was first a minister in 1948 and only retired from the Senate presidency in 1992...david_herdson said:
As has happened twice in the history of the Fifth Republic, in 1969 and 1974.Chris_from_Paris said:
If a president dies the President of the Senate (currently Gerard Larcher - Les Republicains) immediately becomes President. This is also the case if the constitutional Council decides that the president is perantly impeached.SouthamObserver said:Chris_from_Paris said:
I asked this yesterday and did not see an answer: what happens if the French president dies or is forced to stand down for some reason? Is there an election or a replacement?
In both cases, a new election has to take place between 20 and 35 days later.0 -
Duke of Edinburgh to stand down from royal duties for good from August
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-04/buckingham-palace-duke-of-edinburgh-to-stand-down-from-royal-duties-for-good-itv-news-understands/0 -
It is a measure of where French politics is that the best-placed establishment candidate running as such polled single figures.chestnut said:FPT
Le Pen won more than one in five French votes the other day. She may win two in five on Sunday. Let that sink in.OllyT said:My thoughts exactly, out last night, didn't see the debate so just had a brief look at the comments before turning in - Chestnut, Moniker etc were assuring us Macron was being slaughtered. Wake up this morning to find 63% thought Macron had won. Serves has a reminder how far to the right PB now is and definitely worth bearing in mind in a betting context.
She is much further ahead than Farage and co ever achieved over here in a mainstream election and France is drifting to the extremes.
Macron polled just 24% - the second worst polling in a primary in over sixty years. He's the default, 'oh I suppose he'll have to do' candidate rather than someone possessing a compelling vision.
Approximately seven weeks ago, Rutte won the Dutch election - but his coalition was absolutely hammered, just like the two main French parties. Wilders, who lost, actually gained. The Dutch are, I believe, still without a coalition.
Europe is gradually coming apart with it's splintered electorates, with the inflexibility and inability to reform the EU being the key reason.
Macron seems to be a nothing candidate serving up vacuous Blairite tripe. That isn't advocating for Le Pen, it's believing that they appear to have an appalling choice that will neither help France or Europe.
Macron, though actually establishment through-and-through, nonetheless chose to distance himself as far as possible from his former party and is running.
Le Pen is obviously as non-establishment as you get, outside the complete nutters.
Fillon, while a former PM, advocated reformist policies far in excess of what France has previously accepted.
And Melenchon comes from a radical left position which again presents a genuine challenge to the status quo.
You have to drop to the hapless Hamon in fifth before you reach a party and policies from France's consensus.0 -
Absolutely.TheScreamingEagles said:Given he'll be 96 this year, the bloke's has done his duty over 8 decades, including during wartime, he's entitled to this.
0 -
There is an amazing haunting beauty about Clayton's I think. You know she died just after the lens reopened.Anorak said:
I'm pretty sure the composition was unintentional. I found the two photos to be utterly chilling.Pulpstar said:Off topic: Anyone seen this https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/FD29/production/_95890846_clayton-blast-two.jpg
Excellent composition, sharp focus and the explosion doesn't wash out the clear blue sky. An amazingly timed surely photo of the year, RIP Spc Clayton
Edit: full story and other picture here.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-397989880 -
That is outrageous. It's also highly shortsighted as I imagine I'm not alone in intending to recycle the money straight back into other markets on BF.IanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
0 -
Well I have been surprised catching up with some of the comments on here about the European hoo haa.
Firstly I cannot see how it can be argued that the unattributed comments were not designed to influence the British Election. TM is having the election to get a strong supporting mandate. The weaker her support the stronger the EU will be in the negotiations. Now common sense here would be that this is so obvious that it must have been meant for the German elections but I don't buy this binary view. You can try and influence two constituencies at once.
Secondly Juncker has never come across a problem that was not solved by more Europe, so are we surprised that he doesn't see eye to eye with our government. Some of the positions that have been coming from probably Juncker and his cabal rather than Barnier, are so pro European that it wouldn't wash with the electorate so no UK leader could back it.
Finally and a technicality but when Juncker's aide talks of how Brexit cannot be a success, I think leavers are mistranslating this (I did a German degree many years ago). It is not that Brexit will not be allowed to be a success, but rather that Brexit, as a loss of a country from the EU bloc will not be a success for Europe. That said there are certainly people on both sides who I think would want the negotiations to fail, I just don't think that this includes Key players such as May, or Barnier. May's actions yesterday can probably be attributed to a free
hit. (Call out Eurocrats like Juncker and stab him in the front rather than the back, motivate turnout among base for local elections which are much more bedrock support focused, use the politics free BBC local election day to avoid criticism from biggest EU advocate in the media, and lose criticism into Sunday at earliest due to local election results.)0 -
I doubt Phillip’s retirement would require a full meeting of household staff to be called at Buck House involving all senior staff from across the UK. Something prosaic like ticket prices!Rhubarb said:
It would be odd to announce something so routine on an election day when they could have either done it the day before or the day after.Slackbladder said:
winner winner chicken dinner.RobinWiggs said:
Phillip to retire?Sandpit said:So, what do we think the Royal announcement is going to be? Meeting at 10am followed by public statement.
We know it isn't a Royal death or abdication, so:
Resignation or retirement of very senior aide
Major public event announcement
Harry's engagement to a divorcee
Divorce of Charles or William
Some boring internal reshuffle
Selloff of part of the Estate
Any other possibles?0 -
seems unlike Paddy Power!Carolus_Rex said:
That is outrageous. It's also highly shortsighted as I imagine I'm not alone in intending to recycle the money straight back into other markets on BF.IanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
0 -
Not necessarily - the Buckingham Palace statement says 'he may still choose to attend certain public events from time to time'GIN1138 said:
Does that mean HMQ will be on her own when she reads out TM's Queens Speech in June?TheScreamingEagles said:Prince Philip is stepping down from public engagements from this autumn.
That's it.0 -
Last night was hilarious. The poster named after a footballer known for his fascist tendencies assured us the debate was a home run for Le Pen. S/he wasn't the only one. S/he ran away when asked to forecast the result of the election on Sunday.
Polling vs PB Leaver-Fascist anecdote.-1 -
Both photographers did. Slightly freaky that both images were taken within what must be a hundredth of a second (or less) of the explosion starting.Pulpstar said:
There is an amazing haunting beauty about Clayton's I think. You know she died just after the lens reopened.Anorak said:
I'm pretty sure the composition was unintentional. I found the two photos to be utterly chilling.Pulpstar said:Off topic: Anyone seen this https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/FD29/production/_95890846_clayton-blast-two.jpg
Excellent composition, sharp focus and the explosion doesn't wash out the clear blue sky. An amazingly timed surely photo of the year, RIP Spc Clayton
Edit: full story and other picture here.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-397989880 -
Good luck today! (or is it bad luck?). What time is your council counting?Pulpstar said:
I suggested that to my other half this morning. It makes sense, he is very old for a man now.TheScreamingEagles said:Prince Philip is stepping down from public engagements.
That's it.
Just saw a report in the guardian that says labour are looking to re-gain Staffordshire which they held until 2009. Really? I thought this was pretty safe for the tories?0 -
Congratulations.RobinWiggs said:
Phillip to retire?Sandpit said:So, what do we think the Royal announcement is going to be? Meeting at 10am followed by public statement.
We know it isn't a Royal death or abdication, so:
Resignation or retirement of very senior aide
Major public event announcement
Harry's engagement to a divorcee
Divorce of Charles or William
Some boring internal reshuffle
Selloff of part of the Estate
Any other possibles?
Does raise the question of whether he's setting a precedent for his wife. Yes, that'd be much more legally complicated but that'd be one reason why testing the water in this way might be a good idea.0 -
He's got his priorities right if he is hanging on till after the Derby and Royal Ascot.CarlottaVance said:Duke of Edinburgh to stand down from royal duties for good from August
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-04/buckingham-palace-duke-of-edinburgh-to-stand-down-from-royal-duties-for-good-itv-news-understands/0 -
-
That was a disaster of epic proportionsChris_from_Paris said:
You mean polling disasters like the 1st round of the French election ?MonikerDiCanio said:These gloating " counting one's chickens " threads have become a PB ritual on the eve of the recurrent polling disasters of recent vintage.
like Elabe who predicted
Macron 24 Le Pen 21.5 Fillon 20 and Mélenchon 19.5
when the result was Macron 24 Le Pen 21.3 Fillon 20 and Mélenchon 19.6 ?0 -
Even as a loser in this market I want it settled to update the lifetime p&l lol, there's implied commission in there for me.Carolus_Rex said:
That is outrageous. It's also highly shortsighted as I imagine I'm not alone in intending to recycle the money straight back into other markets on BF.IanB2 said:Update on my Betfair complaint: BF say they have now decided NOT to settle any of the "date of next GE" bets until the election has actually taken place on June 8th.
0 -
They know it will completely dominate the news all day with politics suspended.Rhubarb said:
It would be odd to announce something so routine on an election day when they could have either done it the day before or the day after.Slackbladder said:
winner winner chicken dinner.RobinWiggs said:
Phillip to retire?Sandpit said:So, what do we think the Royal announcement is going to be? Meeting at 10am followed by public statement.
We know it isn't a Royal death or abdication, so:
Resignation or retirement of very senior aide
Major public event announcement
Harry's engagement to a divorcee
Divorce of Charles or William
Some boring internal reshuffle
Selloff of part of the Estate
Any other possibles?
The news companies will love it - they'll drag out all their ready-to-go packages of his life then take the afternoon off.0 -
david_herdson said:
Hamon was very very from consensual... He spent the last five years criticizing the socialist government from within and then as an MP after being kicked out. His economic policies were made fun of by most of the press. He played the role of th naive and inexperienced idealist.chestnut said:FPT
It is a measure of where French politics is that the best-placed establishment candidate running as such polled single figures.OllyT said:My thoughts exactly, out last night, didn't see the debate so just had a brief look at the comments someone possessing a compelling vision.
Approximately seven weeks ago, Rutte won the Dutch election - but his coalition was absolutely hammered, just like the two main French parties. Wilders, who lost, actually gained. The Dutch are, I believe, still without a coalition.
Europe is gradually coming apart with it's splintered electorates, with the inflexibility and inability to reform the EU being the key reason.
Macron seems to be a nothing candidate serving up vacuous Blairite tripe. That isn't advocating for Le Pen, it's believing that they appear to have an appalling choice that will neither help France or Europe.
Macron, though actually establishment through-and-through, nonetheless chose to distance himself as far as possible from his former party and is running.
Le Pen is obviously as non-establishment as you get, outside the complete nutters.
Fillon, while a former PM, advocated reformist policies far in excess of what France has previously accepted.
And Melenchon comes from a radical left position which again presents a genuine challenge to the status quo.
You have to drop to the hapless Hamon in fifth before you reach a party and policies from France's consensus.
So there was not a single candidate actually defending what happened during the last few years. The paradox is that it was a big loss for the right: as everybody agreed that Hollande was beyond hapless, even Macron could appear as a change of government.
Macron actually managed the same thing Sarkozy did in 2007: coming from the government in place but positioning himself as such an outsider that everybody forgot the elements of continuity.0 -
It wasn’t supposed to have leaked out – still odd way of doing things though imo.dixiedean said:0 -
Thinking about it - and it is after the event now - the day and time make a lot of sense from a news point.IanB2 said:
For most of these you'd think local election day would be avoided for the announcement?RobinWiggs said:
Phillip to retire?Sandpit said:So, what do we think the Royal announcement is going to be? Meeting at 10am followed by public statement.
We know it isn't a Royal death or abdication, so:
Resignation or retirement of very senior aide
Major public event announcement
Harry's engagement to a divorcee
Divorce of Charles or William
Some boring internal reshuffle
Selloff of part of the Estate
Any other possibles?
The Beeb (and presumably the other electronic media) are giving the usual minimal local govt election coverage until 10pm and are extending that purdah to the GE campaign. As such, getting this announcement out now means that it's less likely to block a story that might have a meaningful effect on the GE and as such interfere with the democratic process. Similarly, by releasing it now, while it'll feature big in tomorrow's papers, it's more likely to be supplement rather than front page material.0 -
Moniker
Care to regale us with your prediction for Sunday, or are you going to run away yet again like a big wet neofascist jessie?-1
