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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marine Le Pen goes into the final 2 days behind in every Frenc
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marine Le Pen goes into the final 2 days behind in every French region except the one most favoured by Brit migrants
Although it is polling day in parts of the UK the election that’s attracting the most bets (£25m matched so far on Betfair) is the final round for the French Presidency.
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Opinionway for Les Echos polled Metropolitan France - which accounts for 535 constituencies out of 577 (the rest is 27 for overseas territories, 11 for French citizens abroad and 4 for Corsica)
It combined the poll results with a sort of Baxter-like model taking into account results of 2012 and 2017 presidentiallections + regional elections of 2015
The model also gives a bonus to incumbents and estimâtes turnout at 60%.
les Echos did not give the poll resulst themselves but only the seats estimâtes, as follows:
En Marche - 249 to 286 [overall majority is 289]
Républicains + UDI - 200 to 210
Front National - 15 to 25
Socialists + Greens - 28 to 43
Far-left (Mélenchon) - 6 to 8
They base this forecast on the following 2d round prédictions:
- 90 to 116 EM vs FN
- 180 EM vs Républicains
- 46 EM / left (socialists or far-left)
- 154 Républicains vs FN
- 6 to 32 EM vs left
- 32 three-way contests between EM vs Républicains vs FN
(all candidates getting 12.5% of registered voters in the first round are qualified for the second)
It seems very optimistic for En Marche (especially as nobody knows yet who their candidates will be and even who Macron wants to name PM or Minister), around the expectations for the FN, a bit below expectation for the right and beyond disastrous for the left.
FWIW a purely proportional national assembly based on the presidential first round with a 5% threshold would be: EM 152, FN 135, Républicains 126, Far left 124, Socialists 40
It was so much easier when the morning thread went up at 6am...
FPT....
Perhaps someone can help old Stodge out here with the truth (or something near it):
I thought there were only two net contributors to the EU Budget - Germany and the United Kingdom.
If that is so, our departure will have a serious financial impact on the EU and some states which have hitherto either been neutral or small beneficiaries will have to become net contributors (with the domestic political impact that might or might not have). The alternative is Germany will have to pick up the slack and become an even greater contributor.
The "Divorce Bill" is clearly a way for those who will become contributors or who will have to become smaller net beneficiaries to have the bitter pill sweetened. It's analogous to a football team being relegated from the Premiership and no longer getting the media rights income they used to have but getting an interim "parachute payment" to soften the financial blow.
As to whether it's a bill the United Kingdom could or should pay, I don't have a view because I don't have sight of our contractual and other financial obligations. Legally, I imagine, we would have to meet so or there is a clause which allows us to break with a payment of some sort. To imagine we can leave without any kind of payment is naïve, to assume we have to pay for everyone else's dinner is equally foolish.
Hope they pay out early on the day though, surely they must realise that most political bettors are going to put their winnings straight back on other bets on a general election day?
Is there any mechanism by which it can't now happen, given Parliament is already dissolved? And if so, could it conceivably be postponed for more than six months?
Unfortunately Ian the traders decision is that the bets are not to be settled until the election has officially taken place on June 8th. Appologies for the delay but should there be issues and the election be delayed then the early settlement would cause many issues , this is a risk that for the sake of the customers we are not willing to take by settling early
Lost in translation, perhaps ?
Still, would have been nice to see an massive upset due to Fillon and thus Juppe going on to win: that would have been a pay-out!!!
She is much further ahead than Farage and co ever achieved over here in a mainstream election and France is drifting to the extremes.
Macron polled just 24% - the second worst polling in a primary in over sixty years. He's the default, 'oh I suppose he'll have to do' candidate rather than someone possessing a compelling vision.
Approximately seven weeks ago, Rutte won the Dutch election - but his coalition was absolutely hammered, just like the two main French parties. Wilders, who lost, actually gained. The Dutch are, I believe, still without a coalition.
Europe is gradually coming apart with it's splintered electorates, with the inflexibility and inability to reform the EU being the key reason.
Macron seems to be a nothing candidate serving up vacuous Blairite tripe. That isn't advocating for Le Pen, it's believing that they appear to have an appalling choice that will neither help France or Europe.
The exit bill is hugely important to the EU because they are experts at kicking the can down the road. The EU is facing troubling times at present and the last thing it needs is the smaller nations crying foul at the next budget summit.
They can avoid telling the likes of Poland* they'll be getting less money if they can get an enormous amount of exit money from the UK to see them through the next five years.
*I'm not picking on Poland unfairly. The Polish economy gets no favours from Shengen. The Polish economy loses a swathe of its young, ambitious, educated workforce through migration to the richer nations. This drives down the working class wages here and leaves a hole to be filled in the Polish economy through EU funding. Not an efficient long-term system in my view.
03/05/2017, 15:49
Guest article: Garden Bridges that might have been (and could still be)
https://onlondon.co.uk/2017/05/03/guest-article-garden-bridges-that-might-have-been-and-could-still-be/
I asked this yesterday and did not see an answer: what happens if the French president dies or is forced to stand down for some reason? Is there an election or a replacement?
I placed a bet on Berlusconi NOT to lead his old party with Paddy back in 2013.
It'll win, but they're waiting till the Italian election for the payout. Odds were 4-7, so a decent & safe return.
I think that's a fair summation albeit a shade bleak. Neither the EU nor the UK, for all the posturing, wants a mutually disadvantageous or damaging process. Neither economic bloc can endure a painful self-enforced period of recession and retrenchment just to make a narrow nationalistic point.
The art of deal making in politics is to recognise the areas where the other side needs a win and make them pay for it by ensuring they capitulate in the areas where you want or need a win. Both sides then focus on their "wins" and gloss over the areas where they have had to give away and everyone walks away until the deal unravels.
The crux for the EU is that while accepting the United Kingdom has made its decision to leave, the corollary is that process has to be made so unappetising as to be a deterrent for any and all future potential leavers. That will colour the process but not necessarily the future relationship.
https://www.angloinfo.com/how-to/france/moving/voting
I expect he'll sell up and move to Calais to minister to Brits fleeing Brexitannia...
The first round of a new presidential election must be organised no sooner than twenty days and no later than thirty-five days following the vacancy of the presidency. Meanwhile the Interim president is not allowed to dismiss the national assembly nor are they allowed to call for a referendum or initiate any constitutional changes.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/Matt homepage/Matt - May/0405-MATT-PORTAL-WEB-P1-large.png
We know it isn't a Royal death or abdication, so:
Resignation or retirement of very senior aide
Major public event announcement
Harry's engagement to a divorcee
Divorce of Charles or William
Some boring internal reshuffle
Selloff of part of the Estate
Any other possibles?
HMQ thinks Theresa May is going to start a war with her rhetoric.
I think the EU malaise is ending. The economic numbers are looking very perky, which is good news for us as well. They still have (by UK standards) very high levels of unemployment, but those levels are falling. I'd expect support for the EU to grow, not diminish.
The UK PMI numbers have also been very good this month. Irrespective of where people stand on Brexit, the longer the next recession can be deferred, the better.
https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/showthread.php?t=87819
Stodge - there are currently 12 net contributors to the EU budget and 15 net recipients
Germany and the UK are the largest net contributors, although Denmark, Sweden and Netherlands have a larger per capita net contribution:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8036097.stm#start
Re HMQ - Charles has given up and passing it on to William?
"... we are in a post-fact political world. And that is scary as hell."
Donald Trump just gave two incredibly bizarre (and fact-free) interviews
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/01/politics/donald-trump-andrew-jackson-wiretapping/index.html?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial
Excellent composition, sharp focus and the explosion doesn't wash out the clear blue sky. An amazingly timed surely photo of the year, RIP Spc Clayton
In both cases, a new election has to take place between 20 and 35 days later.
The EU has been unable to agree a common immigration and asylum policy and it has individual countries that are straitjacketed into a currency that doesn't necessarily work for them.
When they proclaim that more Europe is the answer, they are correct - these things require full harmonisation and integration in order to work properly but they are unable to do it and the people show little sign of really wanting it.
They are neither a genuine union or independent states. The single market is not really a single market, citizens rights are not genuinely uniform.
They are stuck in no-man's land.
like Elabe who predicted
Macron 24 Le Pen 21.5 Fillon 20 and Mélenchon 19.5
when the result was Macron 24 Le Pen 21.3 Fillon 20 and Mélenchon 19.6 ?
That's it.
He did terribly when she was confronting him on immigration and social cohesion. He won on economics and finance.
Aged 96. Fair play to him.
Edit: full story and other picture here.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39798988
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-04/buckingham-palace-duke-of-edinburgh-to-stand-down-from-royal-duties-for-good-itv-news-understands/
Macron, though actually establishment through-and-through, nonetheless chose to distance himself as far as possible from his former party and is running.
Le Pen is obviously as non-establishment as you get, outside the complete nutters.
Fillon, while a former PM, advocated reformist policies far in excess of what France has previously accepted.
And Melenchon comes from a radical left position which again presents a genuine challenge to the status quo.
You have to drop to the hapless Hamon in fifth before you reach a party and policies from France's consensus.
Firstly I cannot see how it can be argued that the unattributed comments were not designed to influence the British Election. TM is having the election to get a strong supporting mandate. The weaker her support the stronger the EU will be in the negotiations. Now common sense here would be that this is so obvious that it must have been meant for the German elections but I don't buy this binary view. You can try and influence two constituencies at once.
Secondly Juncker has never come across a problem that was not solved by more Europe, so are we surprised that he doesn't see eye to eye with our government. Some of the positions that have been coming from probably Juncker and his cabal rather than Barnier, are so pro European that it wouldn't wash with the electorate so no UK leader could back it.
Finally and a technicality but when Juncker's aide talks of how Brexit cannot be a success, I think leavers are mistranslating this (I did a German degree many years ago). It is not that Brexit will not be allowed to be a success, but rather that Brexit, as a loss of a country from the EU bloc will not be a success for Europe. That said there are certainly people on both sides who I think would want the negotiations to fail, I just don't think that this includes Key players such as May, or Barnier. May's actions yesterday can probably be attributed to a free
hit. (Call out Eurocrats like Juncker and stab him in the front rather than the back, motivate turnout among base for local elections which are much more bedrock support focused, use the politics free BBC local election day to avoid criticism from biggest EU advocate in the media, and lose criticism into Sunday at earliest due to local election results.)
Polling vs PB Leaver-Fascist anecdote.
Just saw a report in the guardian that says labour are looking to re-gain Staffordshire which they held until 2009. Really? I thought this was pretty safe for the tories?
Does raise the question of whether he's setting a precedent for his wife. Yes, that'd be much more legally complicated but that'd be one reason why testing the water in this way might be a good idea.
The news companies will love it - they'll drag out all their ready-to-go packages of his life then take the afternoon off.
The Beeb (and presumably the other electronic media) are giving the usual minimal local govt election coverage until 10pm and are extending that purdah to the GE campaign. As such, getting this announcement out now means that it's less likely to block a story that might have a meaningful effect on the GE and as such interfere with the democratic process. Similarly, by releasing it now, while it'll feature big in tomorrow's papers, it's more likely to be supplement rather than front page material.
Care to regale us with your prediction for Sunday, or are you going to run away yet again like a big wet neofascist jessie?