politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Firing the starting gun, Brexi
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In summary - the 3 polls mentioned in this thread, and the one mentioned in the podcast, we get
Figures from the Podcast in this thread (Ipsos Mori, Phone, 3rd May)
Con 49 (+6)
Lab 26 (-4)
LD 13 (NC)
UKIP 4 (-2)
Grn 1 (-3)
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Panelbase
Con 47%
Lab 30%
LD 10%
UKIP 5%
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Kantar poll
Con 48% (+2)
Lab 24% (-)
LD 11% (-)
UKIP 7% (-1)
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Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)
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Average of all 4 (just a bit of fun)
Con 48.0
Lab 27.3
LD 11
UKIP 5.25
Baxtered > Conservative majority of 1660 -
Farron is not vulnerable.Pong said:
Both Farron and Lamb are vulnerable.AndyJS said:
I'm starting to wonder whether he might lose his own seat in Westmorland.ThreeQuidder said:
Are they just seen as irrelevant? Farron isn't even prompted in "best PM" questions.AndyJS said:I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
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Yes but for a number n of different polls with the same invididual margin of error, then subject to a few assumptions the collective margin of error around the mean is the inverse root of the same number. So for 9 polls each with individual MOE of +- 3, you would divide by root 9 and get a MOE +-1.Pulpstar said:
The data collection method is not a probability based sample, quota, criteria and other methods are used. So the margin of error technically does not apply - and also since there can be no superior method to a true probabilistic method, in fact are lower bounds.IanB2 said:
Not really. The +/-3% MOE for most polls is supposed to be at the extreme (well, Ok, 95% of the extreme). Remember that the normal distribution of random sampling is humped in the middle. 24% and 30% are only MOE if the middle is 27%. Yet most of the polls are way off that level. This isn't just random error - there is some systemic error in at least some of the polls that the adjustments are either not correcting, or more probably are creating.dixiedean said:
It's just MOE in reality. (Although that doesn't mean they aren't flailing)!IanB2 said:
The 24%-30% range for Labour suggests that the pollsters are flailing about with all their adjustments.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it was shown earlierRobD said:Has this poll been missed - http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w2TablesForPublication020517.pdf
Con 47%
Lab 30%
LD 10%
UKIP 5%
28 Apr - 02 May
The true margin of error on any one poll is higher than the stated MoE.
Also, the MOE quoted of +-3 is for a randomly conducted sample of around 1,000. But sampling in polls isn't random, rather it's weighted to correct for the effects of randomness as well as problems with constructing the sample by very strictly weighting to match the required numbers in each weighting group and groups within groups. So allowing for this the MOE from the remaining random sampling effects in any single poll is well below the +-3 routinely quoted by those who don't understand the implications of different sampling methods.
The problem with polls is instead structural bias, that is whether they are aiming off target in one direction consistently due to the way they are constructed. The house effects of different pollsters account for a lot of the quoted spread. But in reality that spread can also be due to underlying movement and there seems to have been a perceptible uplift in Labour polling in the past week or so.0 -
I'm probably close to a Europhile, but not interested in stopping Brexit, it was democratically voted on and we should respect that. But we can still choose what kind of Brexit we want. The LD stance is to offer a referendum on the terms of the deal vs staying in - which means if you believe we should Brexit, then no problem you can vote in favour of the deal (most people would I think). That's a more real choice than the "eat this or starve" option proposed by Theresa May - accept the deal she negotiates or crash out with nothing.dixiedean said:
They have said nothing so far to appeal to me (and I was willing to be wooed). It is all Brexit, and gay sex. I was there to be convinced, but I was a Corbyn/May remainer not a Europhile. Brexit will happen like it or not. Plus they have only Farron now. The days they could put Kennedy, Ashdown, Cable, Laws, etc. in front of the cameras are long gone.AndyJS said:I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
Certainly, they have lost a lot of big beasts, but some are re-standing, it will take a bit of time to rebuild, and it's not like the Labour or Tory front benches are overflowing with beasts either.
I'll give you the gay sex issue - I was disappointed to see Farron stalling over it, it was clear the issue was gay sex not being gay, and it took too long to correct that.
Anyway, on why they aren't doing so well, I suspect it's because the election so far has seemed to be a 'Corbyn referendum', as suggested by @rottenborough , rather than a 'brexit election'.0 -
Hardly a commendation, is it?HYUFD said:
I think SeanT finds aspects of Hard Brexit arousing certainlykle4 said:
This is probably the most inappropriate and off topic I have ever been, but my immediate thought was:dixiedean said:
It is all Brexit, and gay sex.AndyJS said:I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
Take back control...Hard: A Brexit Porno
Probably an indication to sign off.0 -
I am not of that school. I am of the school that the depression and subsequent protectionism stoked the rise of National Socialism.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why I said 'within 30 years'BenedictWhite said:
I thought the treaty of Versailles settled the first world war, and Germany's reparations. I am not aware of Germany being either "war ravaged" in the way it was in WW2 or partitioned and occupied.TheScreamingEagles said:
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
I'm from the school of history that says The Treaty of Versailles effectively caused WWII.
WWI was based on treaties, it is entirely given slightly different circumstances in WWI, we would have been one of the Central powers, whilst the Germans were one of the Allied Powers.
That said, assuming we keep Nukes, I think we will be fine after invading Europe.0 -
The Treaty of Benidorm?RobD said:
If we get to that point that implies we've actually been able to negotiate something, and that things may be more cordial.williamglenn said:
I wonder where the exit treaty will be signed. I'm sure the EU has a symbolic place in mind.RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
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Nope - we were in the Entente Cordiale since 1904, and signed a convention with Russia in 1907.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why I said 'within 30 years'BenedictWhite said:
I thought the treaty of Versailles settled the first world war, and Germany's reparations. I am not aware of Germany being either "war ravaged" in the way it was in WW2 or partitioned and occupied.TheScreamingEagles said:
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
I'm from the school of history that says The Treaty of Versailles effectively caused WWII.
WWI was based on treaties, it is entirely given slightly different circumstances in WWI, we would have been one of the Central powers, whilst the Germans were one of the Allied Powers.0 -
Such an invasion will be justified in the context of us enforcing the Treaty of TroyesBenedictWhite said:
I am not of that school. I am of the school that the depression and subsequent protectionism stoked the rise of National Socialism.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why I said 'within 30 years'BenedictWhite said:
I thought the treaty of Versailles settled the first world war, and Germany's reparations. I am not aware of Germany being either "war ravaged" in the way it was in WW2 or partitioned and occupied.TheScreamingEagles said:
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
I'm from the school of history that says The Treaty of Versailles effectively caused WWII.
WWI was based on treaties, it is entirely given slightly different circumstances in WWI, we would have been one of the Central powers, whilst the Germans were one of the Allied Powers.
That said, assuming we keep Nukes, I think we will be fine after invading Europe.
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Who would ever believe that in 20 years Theresa May would transform from this;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDITJ-Xk3Zc
To this;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQHpFKZCWdw0 -
The Treaty of Skegness.williamglenn said:
The Treaty of Benidorm?RobD said:
If we get to that point that implies we've actually been able to negotiate something, and that things may be more cordial.williamglenn said:
I wonder where the exit treaty will be signed. I'm sure the EU has a symbolic place in mind.RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
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Why I think the polls are still underestimating the Tory lead. From tonight's YouGov poll in The Times
When asked to choose who would make the better prime minister, 49 per cent said Mrs May and 21 per cent said Mr Corbyn. Six per cent of Labour voters would prefer Mrs May along with 30 per cent of Lib Dems and 61 per cent of Ukip voters.
Fifty-three per cent of people who voted Ukip in 2015 said they would vote for the Conservatives this time.
People were asked to nominate, unprompted, any Conservative or Labour campaign slogans they had heard in this election and 15 per cent replied “strong and stable”, Mrs May’s mantra, which she used 12 times on Sunday morning TV interviews. The other Tory slogan, “coalition of chaos” showed less sign of success and was chosen by just 2 per cent of voters, with Labour’s “many not the few” also chosen by 2 per cent.
More voters thought Labour had lots of policies compared with the Tories, but Labour’s policies were seen as far less well thought-through.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/may-s-mantra-works-wonders-with-voters-gctcx8rsz0 -
If you are a millionaire thriller writer living in Primrose Hill it does not really matter for you which way it goes, so you can let the blood flow at willIanB2 said:
Hardly a commendation, is it?HYUFD said:
I think SeanT finds aspects of Hard Brexit arousing certainlykle4 said:
This is probably the most inappropriate and off topic I have ever been, but my immediate thought was:dixiedean said:
It is all Brexit, and gay sex.AndyJS said:I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
Take back control...Hard: A Brexit Porno
Probably an indication to sign off.0 -
"Which is more Fascist? UKIP or Islam?"TheScreamingEagles said:So anyone who has ever been a member of UKIP, you were the enablers of fascism.
I hope you're all feeling proud of yourselves tonight.
I think that's what I'll do Sunday's thread on.0 -
Hmm... efforts being made by the Irish to get a good share of the €100 billion. I guess a squabble begins in the 27. I wonder if they will see a penny. The Germans will want the lions share.0
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The problem with your analysis is that you've got what she said wrong and the EU's official position wrong.MJW said:
The worrying thing about her remarks is that they show how she intends to approach Brexit politically - by sabre rattling and blaming the EU for everything that doesn't go her way. She could have, like some of her colleagues, laughed off the dinner leaks in public, had stern words in private and played off Juncker and the hardliners against other figures' desire for a deal. Colour me surprised, a politician has leaked conversations with the aim making themselves look good and justifying their position. It's what they do.kle4 said:
We've been told that was already the most likely outcome, and the EU's position was set, indeed their hostile leaking indicated that. May's rhetoric will have had zero impact on any serious negotiations, since only fools would negotiate based off the remarks played for a domestic audience during an election campaign. As the EU are presumably not fools, it will have no impact on their position, therefore it cannot be a big deal.
There's a real danger that she boxes herself and the EU into a situation where both us and them can't make a deal because it would involve losing too much politically. May because you can't put the jingoism genie back in the bottle - once you've set yourself up as the great protector of the nation against perfidious foreigners you can't compromise - or you put yourself on the wrong side of nationalism. The EU because it can't be seen to give in and undermine its rules at the behest of a member that's treated it with ill concealed hostility and those within the EU who were initially willing to accept a more beneficial deal are forced into the arms of the hardliners.
So far, our negotiations resemble the prisoner's dilemma, marching towards a very bad outcome for everyone due to the desire or each party to gain the jump on an adversary.
What she mostly said is that the dreaded commission is trying to make this fail, I know the leaders are not.
It should be noted that the commission isn't supposed to be the negotiator but Barnier on behalf of the 27. In that sense she is railing against the commission and pointing out to the 27 that it is acting against their interests which is true, Juncker doesn't want a deal as that suits him best. It doesn't suit the 27, or at least most of them.0 -
I am sure we can find a nice railway carriage in France . . .williamglenn said:
I wonder where the exit treaty will be signed. I'm sure the EU has a symbolic place in mind.RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
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Both Macron and Le Pen want to reduce the size of the French national assembly: Le Pen from 577 to 300; Macron by a third. Question for nerds: when and in what country did an elected parliamentary chamber last vote in favour of drastically reducing its own size?0
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Of course, the real counterfactual is if Kaiser Bill's dad, the pro-British Frederick hadn't died after only 99 days on the German throne.0
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Not certain, but ew Zeeland voted to reduce form to chambers to one a few years ago, seems to be working out fine for them.Cyan said:Both Macron and Le Pen want to reduce the size of the French national assembly: Le Pen from 577 to 300; Macron by a third. Question for nerds: when and in what country did an elected parliamentary chamber last vote in favour of drastically reducing its own size?
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Surely neutral territory: Berwick upon Tweed, though obviously it's still at war with Russia....RobD said:
The Treaty of Skegness.williamglenn said:
The Treaty of Benidorm?RobD said:
If we get to that point that implies we've actually been able to negotiate something, and that things may be more cordial.williamglenn said:
I wonder where the exit treaty will be signed. I'm sure the EU has a symbolic place in mind.RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
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The NI Assembly dropped 18 seats in the last election a few months back.0
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Those are UK figures you muffet - not the GB fiures provided by pollsters! Such ignorance!IanB2 said:0 -
The clear desire to punish the U.K. Is there to see. I think now everything is on the table. With the ultimate nuclear option of breaking NATO.kle4 said:
The EUs ever increasing demands show that we are not the only ones playing that game.MJW said:
There's a real danger that she boxes herself and the EU into a situation where both us and them can't make a deal because it would involve losing too much politically.kle4 said:
We've been told that was already the most likely outcome, and the EU's position was set, indeed their hostile leaking indicated that. May's rhetoric will have had zero impact on any serious negotiations, since only fools would negotiate based off the remarks played for a domestic audience during an election campaign. As the EU are presumably not fools, it will have no impact on their position, therefore it cannot be a big deal.daodao said:
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
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when will Rod Crosby be unbanned . his insight and polling predictions will be missed this GE0
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Is that her mobile phone number? If so, then that's... brave.AndyJS said:Holly Mumby-Croft.
Likely to be the next MP for Scunthorpe.
https://twitter.com/HollyMumbyCroft0 -
Iraq?Cyan said:Both Macron and Le Pen want to reduce the size of the French national assembly: Le Pen from 577 to 300; Macron by a third. Question for nerds: when and in what country did an elected parliamentary chamber last vote in favour of drastically reducing its own size?
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I believe that you are correct. I just checked here : http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/moriRobD said:@Disraeli - I think that MORI poll is an old one.
Naughty podcast! It implies that it was today (see beginning of the podcast) - or maybe unfortunate phraseology used...or something.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmWWoMcGmo0
For those who just spent 2 and half hours watching an exhausting French catfight, and need a mood whiplash - this clip of Jimmy Kimmel talking about his son's heart surgery is worth watching. Very raw and emotional, regardless of your political views on Obamacare.0 -
For anyone thinking unlimited immigration is a good thing - get ready to queue at the standpipes. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/05/03/homeowners-warned-cut-water-use-summer-droughts-loom/
Couldn't happen to a more appropriate area/0 -
Interestingly, New Zealand is also one of the few (only?) Western countries to move from a majoritarian system to proportional representation - another thing both Macron and Le Pen have supported (Le Pen fully, Macron adding only a proportional top-up I believe)BigRich said:
Not certain, but ew Zeeland voted to reduce form to chambers to one a few years ago, seems to be working out fine for them.Cyan said:Both Macron and Le Pen want to reduce the size of the French national assembly: Le Pen from 577 to 300; Macron by a third. Question for nerds: when and in what country did an elected parliamentary chamber last vote in favour of drastically reducing its own size?
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Because we want to damage US interests even more heavily into the bargain?notme said:
The clear desire to punish the U.K. Is there to see. I think now everything is on the table. With the ultimate nuclear option of breaking NATO.kle4 said:
The EUs ever increasing demands show that we are not the only ones playing that game.MJW said:
There's a real danger that she boxes herself and the EU into a situation where both us and them can't make a deal because it would involve losing too much politically.kle4 said:
We've been told that was already the most likely outcome, and the EU's position was set, indeed their hostile leaking indicated that. May's rhetoric will have had zero impact on any serious negotiations, since only fools would negotiate based off the remarks played for a domestic audience during an election campaign. As the EU are presumably not fools, it will have no impact on their position, therefore it cannot be a big deal.daodao said:
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!0 -
Disastrous performance by Le Pen.
I have switched my voting share betting from 35/40 and 40/45 to 30/35 and 35/40.0 -
WWII was caused by the German people buying into the stab-in-the-back-myth. "We would have won, but they cheated".TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why I said 'within 30 years'BenedictWhite said:
I thought the treaty of Versailles settled the first world war, and Germany's reparations. I am not aware of Germany being either "war ravaged" in the way it was in WW2 or partitioned and occupied.TheScreamingEagles said:
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
I'm from the school of history that says The Treaty of Versailles effectively caused WWII.
WWI was based on treaties, it is entirely given slightly different circumstances in WWI, we would have been one of the Central powers, whilst the Germans were one of the Allied Powers.
Versailles didn't help - but the real problem was that the Germans didn't believe they had really lost the war, so it was unfair.
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Yes, prior to today (well, yesterday since midnight) it was clear enough that the eurocrats' negotiating priority was their political motive of doing their utmost to inflict pain on the UK for political motivations of ensuring that Brexit was seen to fail (regardless of the likelihood that EU citizens will suffer far more from the loss of this key net export market and the cost of them of making up the UK's lost contributions when we walk away.MJW said:
The worrying thing about her remarks is that they show how she intends to approach Brexit politically - by sabre rattling and blaming the EU for everything that doesn't go her way. She could have, like some of her colleagues, laughed off the dinner leaks in public, had stern words in private and played off Juncker and the hardliners against other figures' desire for a deal. Colour me surprised, a politician has leaked conversations with the aim making themselves look good and justifying their position. It's what they do.kle4 said:
We've been told that was already the most likely outcome, and the EU's position was set, indeed their hostile leaking indicated that. May's rhetoric will have had zero impact on any serious negotiations, since only fools would negotiate based off the remarks played for a domestic audience during an election campaign. As the EU are presumably not fools, it will have no impact on their position, therefore it cannot be a big deal.
There's a real danger that she boxes herself and the EU into a situation where both us and them can't make a deal because it would involve losing too much politically. May because you can't put the jingoism genie back in the bottle - once you've set yourself up as the great protector of the nation against perfidious foreigners you can't compromise - or you put yourself on the wrong side of nationalism. The EU because it can't be seen to give in and undermine its rules at the behest of a member that's treated it with ill concealed hostility and those within the EU who were initially willing to accept a more beneficial deal are forced into the arms of the hardliners.
So far, our negotiations resemble the prisoner's dilemma, marching towards a very bad outcome for everyone due to the desire or each party to gain the jump on an adversary.
What's now clear though is that May's negotiating priority is similarly a political one and she is quite happy to escalate things for domestic political point scoring even though it makes the prospects of a managed Brexit far worse. You are right to point out the difficulty of rowing back from such positions once taken.
So, it's a win-win situation politically for both parties if Brexit is an utter failure economically for their respective country and ever-closer-union.
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It's dizzying to consider how much UK politics has changed in the space of just 10 years, when Labour were thinking about holding an early election at which they were confident of winning a fourth successive victory.0
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Good point, I'm not sure it's wise for her to put that on public display.Rhubarb said:
Is that her mobile phone number? If so, then that's... brave.AndyJS said:Holly Mumby-Croft.
Likely to be the next MP for Scunthorpe.
https://twitter.com/HollyMumbyCroft0 -
Shows how little attention the average person pays to politics and the GE campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:Why I think the polls are still underestimating the Tory lead. From tonight's YouGov poll in The Times
When asked to choose who would make the better prime minister, 49 per cent said Mrs May and 21 per cent said Mr Corbyn. Six per cent of Labour voters would prefer Mrs May along with 30 per cent of Lib Dems and 61 per cent of Ukip voters.
Fifty-three per cent of people who voted Ukip in 2015 said they would vote for the Conservatives this time.
People were asked to nominate, unprompted, any Conservative or Labour campaign slogans they had heard in this election and 15 per cent replied “strong and stable”, Mrs May’s mantra, which she used 12 times on Sunday morning TV interviews. The other Tory slogan, “coalition of chaos” showed less sign of success and was chosen by just 2 per cent of voters, with Labour’s “many not the few” also chosen by 2 per cent.
More voters thought Labour had lots of policies compared with the Tories, but Labour’s policies were seen as far less well thought-through.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/may-s-mantra-works-wonders-with-voters-gctcx8rsz
Those slogans need to be said far more - "Coalition of chaos" should be mandatory for every interview with May or a Cabinet Minister.
The other thing this shows is how difficult it will be to substantially move the polls - because whatever anyone says, very few people will be listening. TV debates are the only big opportunities and May has neutralised them.
The only big risks left for May are now abandoning the pensions triple lock and the CPS announcement.
If I were her, I would ensure she has something positive for pensioners when she abandons the triple lock, eg "Triple lock stays until 2020 as previously promised then move to a double lock which will be more sustainable and therefore give pensioners more security long term" - ie keep on the front foot.
Not sure about the CPS - best bet would be to delay it until post GE - could she attempt to do that on grounds it might influence the campaign?
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The point about repetition is correct. Much that the media and us political nerds think omg not again, what a robot, the public don't see it like that. New labour were brilliant at this kind of messaging not just during GE but week to week.MikeL said:
Shows how little attention the average person pays to politics and the GE campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:Why I think the polls are still underestimating the Tory lead. From tonight's YouGov poll in The Times
When asked to choose who would make the better prime minister, 49 per cent said Mrs May and 21 per cent said Mr Corbyn. Six per cent of Labour voters would prefer Mrs May along with 30 per cent of Lib Dems and 61 per cent of Ukip voters.
Fifty-three per cent of people who voted Ukip in 2015 said they would vote for the Conservatives this time.
People were asked to nominate, unprompted, any Conservative or Labour campaign slogans they had heard in this election and 15 per cent replied “strong and stable”, Mrs May’s mantra, which she used 12 times on Sunday morning TV interviews. The other Tory slogan, “coalition of chaos” showed less sign of success and was chosen by just 2 per cent of voters, with Labour’s “many not the few” also chosen by 2 per cent.
More voters thought Labour had lots of policies compared with the Tories, but Labour’s policies were seen as far less well thought-through.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/may-s-mantra-works-wonders-with-voters-gctcx8rsz
Those slogans need to be said far more - "Coalition of chaos" should be mandatory for every interview with May or a Cabinet Minister.
The other thing this shows is how difficult it will be to substantially move the polls - because whatever anyone says, very few people will be listening. TV debates are the only big opportunities and May has neutralised them.
The only big risks left for May are now abandoning the pensions triple lock and the CPS announcement.
If I were her, I would ensure she has something positive for pensioners when she abandons the triple lock, eg "Triple lock stays until 2020 as previously promised then move to a double lock which will be more sustainable and therefore give pensioners more security long term" - ie keep on the front foot.
Not sure about the CPS - best bet would be to delay it until post GE - could she attempt to do that on grounds it might influence the campaign?0 -
When the tables come out - check London - I think the previous samples have been a bit questionable.TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)
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Has anyone noticed that there is an election in 4851 council seats today, Thursday 4th May?0
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Which is why those poking fun at 'Strong and Stable' are missing the point. Not that I'm upset.MikeL said:
Shows how little attention the average person pays to politics and the GE campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:Why I think the polls are still underestimating the Tory lead. From tonight's YouGov poll in The Times
When asked to choose who would make the better prime minister, 49 per cent said Mrs May and 21 per cent said Mr Corbyn. Six per cent of Labour voters would prefer Mrs May along with 30 per cent of Lib Dems and 61 per cent of Ukip voters.
Fifty-three per cent of people who voted Ukip in 2015 said they would vote for the Conservatives this time.
People were asked to nominate, unprompted, any Conservative or Labour campaign slogans they had heard in this election and 15 per cent replied “strong and stable”, Mrs May’s mantra, which she used 12 times on Sunday morning TV interviews. The other Tory slogan, “coalition of chaos” showed less sign of success and was chosen by just 2 per cent of voters, with Labour’s “many not the few” also chosen by 2 per cent.
More voters thought Labour had lots of policies compared with the Tories, but Labour’s policies were seen as far less well thought-through.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/may-s-mantra-works-wonders-with-voters-gctcx8rsz0 -
Speculation amongst Buckingham Palace staff was rampant last night as the Queen’s most senior aides called her entire household to an emergency meeting today.
Servants from royal residences across the country have been ordered to London and will be addressed this morning by the Lord Chamberlain, the most senior officer of the Royal Household, as well as Her Majesty’s right-hand man, Private Secretary Sir Christopher Geidt.
Even her longest serving staff were left in the dark about why the meeting was being called but multiple sources said it was ‘highly unusual’ and had sparked fevered talk about an imminent announcement concerning the monarch or her husband, the Duke of Edinburgh.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4471696/Royal-staff-called-London-emergency-meeting.html#ixzz4g4irr6Oz
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Its not "london Bridge" is it?0
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Can't be abdication as she wouldn't do that during a GE campaign.0
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imagine the impact on the betting markets........0
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She was alive at 4pm when Theresa May went to see her - if it was London Bridge then surely it would be announced directly rather than in a way that led to speculation.0
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Blimey... would that delay the GE?0
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Also, hasn't she said she would never abdicate? I would have thought if anything it will be Philllllllliiiiiiiiiipppppp isn't well enough to really carry out many duties anymore.MikeL said:Can't be abdication as she wouldn't do that during a GE campaign.
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No. For those who missed it last time - long read on 'London Bridge' (which this won't be):RobD said:Blimey... would that delay the GE?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge0 -
They did not do that during the Scottish referendum.AndyJS said:
Why can't the paper review have two pundits with opposing views for a change?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky news reviewer Stig Abell is having a breakdown on the review with pure fury about TM. Also Jenny Kleeman is backing him up.
They are the perfect example of the Metropolitan left wing elite and cannot accept we are leaving the EU0 -
MikeL said:
She was alive at 4pm when Theresa May went to see her - if it was London Bridge then surely it would be announced directly rather than in a way that led to speculation.
Exactly. It might be something about the DoE (Forth Bridge) - tho he was out at Lords a few days ago. If it was London Bridge the protocol is well established.0 -
"enough to kill him twice over – in order to ease the monarch’s suffering, and to have him expire in time for the printing presses of the Times, which rolled at midnight."CarlottaVance said:
No. For those who missed it last time - long read on 'London Bridge' (which this won't be):RobD said:Blimey... would that delay the GE?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge
Must ensure timely death to coincidence with the Times print run....0 -
Agreed.FrancisUrquhart said:
Also, hasn't she said she would never abdicate? I would have thought if anything it will be Philllllllliiiiiiiiiipppppp isn't well enough to really carry out many duties anymore.MikeL said:Can't be abdication as she wouldn't do that during a GE campaign.
She has said she wouldn't abdicate - but I wouldn't rule it out completely if she got to near 100 and wasn't well enough to do any duties (or even appear in public) then it wouldn't be sensible to carry on - though I guess in that situation Prince Charles might just become Prince Regent - ie Charles wouldn't be King but he would carry out all the Queen's duties.0 -
One upside to the 24h news cycle - Liz won't be bumped off to meet a print deadline!FrancisUrquhart said:
"enough to kill him twice over – in order to ease the monarch’s suffering, and to have him expire in time for the printing presses of the Times, which rolled at midnight."CarlottaVance said:
No. For those who missed it last time - long read on 'London Bridge' (which this won't be):RobD said:Blimey... would that delay the GE?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge
Must ensure timely death to coincidence with the Times print run....0 -
A distant relative of actor, Damian Lewis bumped off George V.0
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Looking at the newspaper headlines the only one that seems ott with talk of 'war on Europe' is ..... the GUARDIAN! We await the condemnations of the usual suspects.0
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They were most upset yesterday when they discovered the UK government wants to give EU nationals the same rights as British citizensfelix said:Looking at the newspaper headlines the only one that seems ott with talk of 'war on Europe' is ..... the GUARDIAN! We await the condemnations of the usual suspects.
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Congratulations to @Tissue_Price for being selected as a parliamentary candidate.0
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@Dickie Arbiter Staff meetings are called from time to time nothing unusual & could well be about the Buckingham Palace refurbishment0
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Seconded! or Thirded, or probably umpteenth!old_labour said:Congratulations to @Tissue_Price for being selected as a parliamentary candidate.
Both 'Buckingham Palace and 'Prince Philip' are trending on twitter.....
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2017/05/buckingham-palace-denies-reports-prince-philip-queen-elizabeth-have-died.html0 -
Morning all ! What's going on ?0
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Why would that sort of rumour allowed to start ? These are modern times. I am sure they have protocol but any announcement should be made within a couple of hours.CarlottaVance said:
Seconded! or Thirded, or probably umpteenth!old_labour said:Congratulations to @Tissue_Price for being selected as a parliamentary candidate.
Both 'Buckingham Palace and 'Prince Philip' are trending on twitter.....
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2017/05/buckingham-palace-denies-reports-prince-philip-queen-elizabeth-have-died.html0 -
Ah ! The two cups are the best tea of the day.0
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Carlotta, do you never sleep ?CarlottaVance said:
When the tables come out - check London - I think the previous samples have been a bit questionable.TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)0 -
Because people don't know the protocol?surbiton said:
Why would that sort of rumour allowed to start ? These are modern times. I am sure they have protocol but any announcement should be made within a couple of hours.CarlottaVance said:
Seconded! or Thirded, or probably umpteenth!old_labour said:Congratulations to @Tissue_Price for being selected as a parliamentary candidate.
Both 'Buckingham Palace and 'Prince Philip' are trending on twitter.....
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2017/05/buckingham-palace-denies-reports-prince-philip-queen-elizabeth-have-died.html
“If you ever hear Haunted Dancehall (Nursery Remix) by Sabres of Paradise on daytime Radio 1, turn the TV on,” wrote Chris Price, a BBC radio producer, for the Huffington Post in 2011. “Something terrible has just happened.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge0 -
Of course! Just not at the same time as most people who post here!surbiton said:
Carlotta, do you never sleep ?CarlottaVance said:
When the tables come out - check London - I think the previous samples have been a bit questionable.TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)0 -
By choice, or that's how it is ? I came home last night at about 8 and went to bed [ not intending to sleep ] but I woke up half an hour back, refreshed.CarlottaVance said:
Of course! Just not at the same time as most people who post here!surbiton said:
Carlotta, do you never sleep ?CarlottaVance said:
When the tables come out - check London - I think the previous samples have been a bit questionable.TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)0 -
What was that thing about Dicky Arbiter ? Why is he tweeting so early in the morning ?CarlottaVance said:
Because people don't know the protocol?surbiton said:
Why would that sort of rumour allowed to start ? These are modern times. I am sure they have protocol but any announcement should be made within a couple of hours.CarlottaVance said:
Seconded! or Thirded, or probably umpteenth!old_labour said:Congratulations to @Tissue_Price for being selected as a parliamentary candidate.
Both 'Buckingham Palace and 'Prince Philip' are trending on twitter.....
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2017/05/buckingham-palace-denies-reports-prince-philip-queen-elizabeth-have-died.html
“If you ever hear Haunted Dancehall (Nursery Remix) by Sabres of Paradise on daytime Radio 1, turn the TV on,” wrote Chris Price, a BBC radio producer, for the Huffington Post in 2011. “Something terrible has just happened.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge0 -
What duties except things relating to Parliament are not already delegated at times?MikeL said:
Agreed.FrancisUrquhart said:
Also, hasn't she said she would never abdicate? I would have thought if anything it will be Philllllllliiiiiiiiiipppppp isn't well enough to really carry out many duties anymore.MikeL said:Can't be abdication as she wouldn't do that during a GE campaign.
She has said she wouldn't abdicate - but I wouldn't rule it out completely if she got to near 100 and wasn't well enough to do any duties (or even appear in public) then it wouldn't be sensible to carry on - though I guess in that situation Prince Charles might just become Prince Regent - ie Charles wouldn't be King but he would carry out all the Queen's duties.
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The news of Royal Household staff being summoned has sparked off speculation - Arbiter is trying to damp it down.surbiton said:
What was that thing about Dicky Arbiter ? Why is he tweeting so early in the morning ?CarlottaVance said:
Because people don't know the protocol?surbiton said:
Why would that sort of rumour allowed to start ? These are modern times. I am sure they have protocol but any announcement should be made within a couple of hours.CarlottaVance said:
Seconded! or Thirded, or probably umpteenth!old_labour said:Congratulations to @Tissue_Price for being selected as a parliamentary candidate.
Both 'Buckingham Palace and 'Prince Philip' are trending on twitter.....
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2017/05/buckingham-palace-denies-reports-prince-philip-queen-elizabeth-have-died.html
“If you ever hear Haunted Dancehall (Nursery Remix) by Sabres of Paradise on daytime Radio 1, turn the TV on,” wrote Chris Price, a BBC radio producer, for the Huffington Post in 2011. “Something terrible has just happened.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge0 -
The BBC or Sky were implying that May's meeting with the queen took longer than expected.0
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That's a loaded way of presenting the question. Someone's specific religion has nothing to do with it. For instance, in principle, I wouldn't have a problem voting for Sadiq Khan*AlastairMeeks said:
Would you therefore refuse ever to vote for a devout Muslim?Charles said:@AlastairMeeks fpt
Re Farron
Elections need to be about character not policies - you can never predicte the decisions they will face
He clearly believes gay sex (although differentiating between that and homosexuality sexuality is classic Anglican sophistry @foxinsox ) is wrong.
That, for me, makes him toxic
I wouldn't vote for anyone who personally believed that a significant proportion of the population were sinning because of their sexual preferences. It doesn't matter whether they were Muslin, Hindu, Buddhist, Christian, Jew or Pastafarian.
I wouldn't vote for an avowed racist either, or for someone who believe that women should have a lesser status in society.
* Although I think he's a slimy git, so wouldn't vote for him on that basis0 -
AJAX
A small leg of lamb has gone missing from the pantry & she's want's to know who took it?
(Comment in a downmarket tabloid) 0 -
That is not good news. However, when were the staff summoned ? If it was yesterday, then everything is fine, I hope.CarlottaVance said:
The news of Royal Household staff being summoned has sparked off speculation - Arbiter is trying to damp it down.surbiton said:
What was that thing about Dicky Arbiter ? Why is he tweeting so early in the morning ?CarlottaVance said:
Because people don't know the protocol?surbiton said:
Why would that sort of rumour allowed to start ? These are modern times. I am sure they have protocol but any announcement should be made within a couple of hours.CarlottaVance said:
Seconded! or Thirded, or probably umpteenth!old_labour said:Congratulations to @Tissue_Price for being selected as a parliamentary candidate.
Both 'Buckingham Palace and 'Prince Philip' are trending on twitter.....
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2017/05/buckingham-palace-denies-reports-prince-philip-queen-elizabeth-have-died.html
“If you ever hear Haunted Dancehall (Nursery Remix) by Sabres of Paradise on daytime Radio 1, turn the TV on,” wrote Chris Price, a BBC radio producer, for the Huffington Post in 2011. “Something terrible has just happened.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge0 -
Entry for Price Philip in Wikipedia
This article is currently protected from editing until May 5, 2017.
See the protection policy and protection log for more details. Please discuss any changes on the talk page; you may submit an edit request to ask an administrator to make an edit if it is uncontroversial or supported by consensus. You may also request that this page be unprotected.0 -
Do you know who is in charge of this kind of "protection"?old_labour said:Entry for Price Philip in Wikipedia
This article is currently protected from editing until May 5, 2017.
See the protection policy and protection log for more details. Please discuss any changes on the talk page; you may submit an edit request to ask an administrator to make an edit if it is uncontroversial or supported by consensus. You may also request that this page be unprotected.0 -
international media have an opinion......(google news)0
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That should be Prince, not Price.old_labour said:Entry for Price Philip in Wikipedia
This article is currently protected from editing until May 5, 2017.
See the protection policy and protection log for more details. Please discuss any changes on the talk page; you may submit an edit request to ask an administrator to make an edit if it is uncontroversial or supported by consensus. You may also request that this page be unprotected.
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https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/859993032858361856Chris_from_Paris said:
Do you know who is in charge of this kind of "protection"?old_labour said:Entry for Price Philip in Wikipedia
This article is currently protected from editing until May 5, 2017.
See the protection policy and protection log for more details. Please discuss any changes on the talk page; you may submit an edit request to ask an administrator to make an edit if it is uncontroversial or supported by consensus. You may also request that this page be unprotected.
[Although French media sources reporting something different]0 -
One of many WP Admins. If you hunt about, everything WP does is in the public arena and there will be a discussion/proposal somewhere on one of the admin sites. Without looking, my guess is that this has been done to avoid speculation (OR in WP speak) being put onto the page and provoking a media storm.Chris_from_Paris said:
Do you know who is in charge of this kind of "protection"?old_labour said:Entry for Price Philip in Wikipedia
This article is currently protected from editing until May 5, 2017.
See the protection policy and protection log for more details. Please discuss any changes on the talk page; you may submit an edit request to ask an administrator to make an edit if it is uncontroversial or supported by consensus. You may also request that this page be unprotected.0 -
He may be a slimy git, but at least he cancelled the Garden Bridge. That's an indication he has a more sound judgement on the use of public money than you do.Charles said:
That's a loaded way of presenting the question. Someone's specific religion has nothing to do with it. For instance, in principle, I wouldn't have a problem voting for Sadiq Khan*AlastairMeeks said:
Would you therefore refuse ever to vote for a devout Muslim?Charles said:@AlastairMeeks fpt
Re Farron
Elections need to be about character not policies - you can never predicte the decisions they will face
He clearly believes gay sex (although differentiating between that and homosexuality sexuality is classic Anglican sophistry @foxinsox ) is wrong.
That, for me, makes him toxic
I wouldn't vote for anyone who personally believed that a significant proportion of the population were sinning because of their sexual preferences. It doesn't matter whether they were Muslin, Hindu, Buddhist, Christian, Jew or Pastafarian.
I wouldn't vote for an avowed racist either, or for someone who believe that women should have a lesser status in society.
* Although I think he's a slimy git, so wouldn't vote for him on that basis
By the way, you might want to read Hodge's fairly damning report in the project. You may note many of the criticisms I, and others, made about it, and you roundly denied:
https://www.london.gov.uk/independent-review-garden-bridge-project
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What're PB's procedures when the sad event occurs? A black banner across the top of the page? Has OGH prepared a page about how betting has changed and liberalised over her long reign? Will a funeral march play in the background after you load the site?CarlottaVance said:
Because people don't know the protocol?surbiton said:
Why would that sort of rumour allowed to start ? These are modern times. I am sure they have protocol but any announcement should be made within a couple of hours.CarlottaVance said:
Seconded! or Thirded, or probably umpteenth!old_labour said:Congratulations to @Tissue_Price for being selected as a parliamentary candidate.
Both 'Buckingham Palace and 'Prince Philip' are trending on twitter.....
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2017/05/buckingham-palace-denies-reports-prince-philip-queen-elizabeth-have-died.html
“If you ever hear Haunted Dancehall (Nursery Remix) by Sabres of Paradise on daytime Radio 1, turn the TV on,” wrote Chris Price, a BBC radio producer, for the Huffington Post in 2011. “Something terrible has just happened.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge
If it does happen, I think the mods might have to be on their toes ...-1 -
Calm down, it is just the start of a process where HM the Q instructs first her staff, and later all of us, not to vote for that beastly Mr. Corbyn......0
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Regarding WP, edits were made asserting that Prince Philip had died, based on rumours circulating on the internet. A request was made to protect the page from future edits and this will be in place until tomorrow, or until an admin unlocks the page.0
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May should read this although I don't agree with the conclusion.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/the-six-brexit-traps-that-will-defeat-theresa-may?CMP=share_btn_link0 -
How to decide your vote when nobody bothers to campaign:
1) Look up candidates on website.
2) Realise that of the 4 candidates, only the Green candidate actually lives in this (very safe Labour) ward.
3) Decide to vote Green.0 -
You really seem to have a bug in your bonnet about this. Probably because about the cycling.JosiasJessop said:
He may be a slimy git, but at least he cancelled the Garden Bridge. That's an indication he has a more sound judgement on the use of public money than you do.Charles said:
That's a loaded way of presenting the question. Someone's specific religion has nothing to do with it. For instance, in principle, I wouldn't have a problem voting for Sadiq Khan*AlastairMeeks said:
Would you therefore refuse ever to vote for a devout Muslim?Charles said:@AlastairMeeks fpt
Re Farron
Elections need to be about character not policies - you can never predicte the decisions they will face
He clearly believes gay sex (although differentiating between that and homosexuality sexuality is classic Anglican sophistry @foxinsox ) is wrong.
That, for me, makes him toxic
I wouldn't vote for anyone who personally believed that a significant proportion of the population were sinning because of their sexual preferences. It doesn't matter whether they were Muslin, Hindu, Buddhist, Christian, Jew or Pastafarian.
I wouldn't vote for an avowed racist either, or for someone who believe that women should have a lesser status in society.
* Although I think he's a slimy git, so wouldn't vote for him on that basis
By the way, you might want to read Hodge's fairly damning report in the project. You may note many of the criticisms I, and others, made about it, and you roundly denied:
https://www.london.gov.uk/independent-review-garden-bridge-project
My office is within 50 yards of one end of the Bridge. It would have helped with the economic regeneration of a neglected part of central London. That's all I really care about.
I'm really not fixated on things.
But just bear in mind that Hodges report was entirely designed to achieve a political outcome0 -
Incidentally, re Buck House, one other possibility is perhaps that they need to review security after those terrorism threats recently.
Although the others wouldn't surprise me. I said at Christmas that we seemed to be being softened up for an announcement.0 -
I see , so its allright for Junker to throw his toys out of the pram and "leak" confidential discussions of which there is zero proof, but when the UK reacts and says its not happy with the way the EUI is behaving, "its poisoning the atmosphere".. LOLdaodao said:
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
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Oh ye locals, almost forgot - will vote for myself in a bitydoethur said:How to decide your vote when nobody bothers to campaign:
1) Look up candidates on website.
2) Realise that of the 4 candidates, only the Green candidate actually lives in this (very safe Labour) ward.
3) Decide to vote Green.0
