politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Firing the starting gun, Brexi
Comments
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We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.bobajobPB said:
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.MTimT said:
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
0 -
Who did herself indoors go for in the first round after all ?Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
It's my tipping point.Pulpstar said:Looks like my thread tipping Sion Simon will come a cropper.
THat'll mean Coventry Northwest going Tory in the GE at the very least.
North East was very very Brexity, if the Labour damn really breaks it could be close... (South looks like a forgone conclusion right now)
Sion Simon wins = Tory majority of around 60 to 80.
Sion Simon loses = Tory majority of 100
Con win Tees Valley = Con Majority of 150 plus
Perhaps. We will see...I am not convinced either to be perfectly honest.IanB2 said:
Not really. The +/-3% MOE for most polls is supposed to be at the extreme (well, Ok, 95% of the extreme). Remember that the normal distribution of random sampling is humped in the middle. 24% and 30% are only MOE if the middle is 27%. Yet most of the polls are way off that level. This isn't just random error - there is some systemic error in at least some of the polls that the adjustments are either not correcting, or more probably are creating.dixiedean said:
It's just MOE in reality. (Although that doesn't mean they aren't flailing)!IanB2 said:
The 24%-30% range for Labour suggests that the pollsters are flailing about with all their adjustments.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it was shown earlierRobD said:Has this poll been missed - http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w2TablesForPublication020517.pdf
Con 47%
Lab 30%
LD 10%
UKIP 5%
28 Apr - 02 May0 -
If you think about it logically, any adjustments can't reduce the potential error bounds, they can only increase. So if say C2s or Londoners need to be upweighted in a sample then the effective MoE simply must increase.IanB2 said:
Technically true - although I don't think this helps that much with the debate. The technical adjustments are supposed to make up for deficiencies in the randomness of the sampling, and if done appropriately shouldn't introduce significant extra error. All the signs however point towards these adjustments being done, at least in some cases, in a way that is introducing error rather than correcting for it.Pulpstar said:
The data collection method is not a probability based sample, quota, criteria and other methods are used. So the margin of error technically does not apply - and also since there can be no superior method to a true probabilistic method, in fact are lower bounds.IanB2 said:
Not really. The +/-3% MOE for most polls is supposed to be at the extreme (well, Ok, 95% of the extreme). Remember that the normal distribution of random sampling is humped in the middle. 24% and 30% are only MOE if the middle is 27%. Yet most of the polls are way off that level. This isn't just random error - there is some systemic error in at least some of the polls that the adjustments are either not correcting, or more probably are creating.dixiedean said:
It's just MOE in reality. (Although that doesn't mean they aren't flailing)!IanB2 said:
The 24%-30% range for Labour suggests that the pollsters are flailing about with all their adjustments.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it was shown earlierRobD said:Has this poll been missed - http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w2TablesForPublication020517.pdf
Con 47%
Lab 30%
LD 10%
UKIP 5%
28 Apr - 02 May
The true margin of error on any one poll is higher than the stated MoE.
Although the statistics in the article were flawed, the data in Nate Silver's recent comparison of how bad the UK pollsters are versus those in the US (to which we can now add France) were instructive. For whatever reason our pollsters have a relatively poor long term track record.0 -
Views shared by many of your co-religionists, no doubtTheScreamingEagles said:So Farage is endorsing someone with some interesting views on the holocaust.
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Successful? That remains to be seen surely? We have to see if he gets MPs etc he can work with first.foxinsoxuk said:
Nah, yesterdays news come 2022. The Republicans will come up with a better candidate, and Macron will be the successful incumbent.FF43 said:
Her aim, from today even before the election, is to discredit Macron so totally in the eyes of the French voters as a failed scion of the internationalist elite, that they will choose his anthesis, ie her, in the next election.TheScreamingEagles said:Farage for the fascist. The man is a c*nt
@Nigel_Farage: I want to see @MLP_officiel win on Sunday. She is the right candidate for Brexit Britain.
I'm supporting Marine Le Pen, and if she fails this year, she will win in 2022
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/supporting-marine-le-pen-fails-year-will-win-2022/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_AnxB2DhJYnpm0 -
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...kle4 said:
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.bobajobPB said:
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.MTimT said:
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!0 -
We've been told that was already the most likely outcome, and the EU's position was set, indeed their hostile leaking indicated that. May's rhetoric will have had zero impact on any serious negotiations, since only fools would negotiate based off the remarks played for a domestic audience during an election campaign. As the EU are presumably not fools, it will have no impact on their position, therefore it cannot be a big deal.daodao said:
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!0 -
Lots of Labour Tories as wellisam said:
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...kle4 said:
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.bobajobPB said:
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.MTimT said:
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
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Unless the noises coming out of EU HQ lately are purely playing to an audience (to influence UK and French elections) then there isn't going to be a deal. Or if there is a deal, on terms anywhere near those being talked about, then I'll be cancelling that shiny new Conservative party membership!daodao said:
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!0 -
Very inclusive, the PB Tory pack.isam said:
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...kle4 said:
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.bobajobPB said:
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.MTimT said:
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!0 -
I still think there might be some moves to get rid of Corbyn after tomorrow's results are announced, assuming they're very bad for Labour, ie. losing most of the mayoral contests, and failing to win a single county council.0
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Joining up so you can later resign on principle?CaptainMatt said:
Unless the noises coming out of EU HQ lately are purely playing to an audience (to influence UK and French elections) then there isn't going to be a deal. Or if there is a deal, on terms anywhere near those being talked about, then I'll be cancelling that shiny new Conservative party membership!daodao said:
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!0 -
Do we have a greater tendency to lie to pollsters? There was a recent poll where 2% of people who intend to vote UKIP at the next election thought that the leave vote was a mistake and should be reversed...IanB2 said:
Technically true - although I don't think this helps that much with the debate. The technical adjustments are supposed to make up for deficiencies in the randomness of the sampling, and if done appropriately shouldn't introduce significant extra error. All the signs however point towards these adjustments being done, at least in some cases, in a way that is introducing error rather than correcting for it.Pulpstar said:
The data collection method is not a probability based sample, quota, criteria and other methods are used. So the margin of error technically does not apply - and also since there can be no superior method to a true probabilistic method, in fact are lower bounds.IanB2 said:
Not really. The +/-3% MOE for most polls is supposed to be at the extreme (well, Ok, 95% of the extreme). Remember that the normal distribution of random sampling is humped in the middle. 24% and 30% are only MOE if the middle is 27%. Yet most of the polls are way off that level. This isn't just random error - there is some systemic error in at least some of the polls that the adjustments are either not correcting, or more probably are creating.dixiedean said:
It's just MOE in reality. (Although that doesn't mean they aren't flailing)!IanB2 said:
The 24%-30% range for Labour suggests that the pollsters are flailing about with all their adjustments.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think it was shown earlierRobD said:Has this poll been missed - http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w2TablesForPublication020517.pdf
Con 47%
Lab 30%
LD 10%
UKIP 5%
28 Apr - 02 May
The true margin of error on any one poll is higher than the stated MoE.
Although the statistics in the article were flawed, the data in Nate Silver's recent comparison of how bad the UK pollsters are versus those in the US (to which we can now add France) were instructive. For whatever reason our pollsters have a relatively poor long term track record.
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96-3 on that question is a bit amazing!Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...0 -
Given Macron is on 60% or so his supporters simply judged him best, it does not change much, it will still be around 60% to 40% which would still be the highest FN score ever in a presidential election even if Macron wins clearlyParistonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...0 -
Thanks Ave it, the funeral's on Friday, but slowly coming to terms with his loss.Ave_it said:Hello Sunil
Sorry to hear about your Dad. Hope you are ok.
Are you doing ELBOW this time?
I already did ELBOW for week-ending 23rd April, and 30th April
30th April (9 polls):
Con 46.33
Lab 28.11
LD 10.22
UKIP 6.67
Tory Lead: 18.22
23rd April (10 polls):
Con 45.50
Lab 26.10
LD 10.40
UKIP 8.60
Tory Lead: 19.400 -
Hello TSE I was watching it in the pub!TheScreamingEagles said:
Hello Ave It.Ave_it said:Hello Sunil
Sorry to hear about your Dad. Hope you are ok.
Are you doing ELBOW this time?
Were you at Vicarage Road on Monday to see the finest goal to have been scored in the history of that ground?
Yes good goal but not overjoyed. We are not safe yet!
0 -
Macron. Strangely most of her friends voted Hamon. The only people in France to do so. She thinks that her mother and sister (Dupont-Aignan voters) and grandparents (all Fillon) will all go Macron. So, very few transfer votes for Le Pen if so.Pulpstar said:
Who did herself indoors go for in the first round after all ?Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...0 -
Most likely it would be Macron v Juppe but who knows. At this rate we could have invaded France by then!foxinsoxuk said:
Nah, yesterdays news come 2022. The Republicans will come up with a better candidate, and Macron will be the successful incumbent.FF43 said:
Her aim, from today even before the election, is to discredit Macron so totally in the eyes of the French voters as a failed scion of the internationalist elite, that they will choose his anthesis, ie her, in the next election.TheScreamingEagles said:Farage for the fascist. The man is a c*nt
@Nigel_Farage: I want to see @MLP_officiel win on Sunday. She is the right candidate for Brexit Britain.
I'm supporting Marine Le Pen, and if she fails this year, she will win in 2022
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/supporting-marine-le-pen-fails-year-will-win-2022/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_AnxB2DhJYnpm0 -
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The dream of many, but it is hard to see how they'd work up the courage (and though I think it'll be bad for them, I don't think it will be as bad as that scenario) or how it would even help much. He wouldn't go, not without a chance to fight the GE. and then they're stuck, in open warfare. As ridiculous as 'Vote for Labour but please know I dislike Corbyn too' is as a strategy, it's better than being openly at each others' throats en masse. At that point you are only going to vote Labour to save the brand, and as strong as it still is, that's a lot of faith to place in it.AndyJS said:I still think there might be some moves to get rid of Corbyn after tomorrow's results are announced, assuming they're very bad for Labour, ie. losing most of the mayoral contests, and failing to win a single county council.
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Twitter is not France - just remember that.Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...0 -
That was Macron voters onlyNickPalmer said:
96-3 on that question is a bit amazing!Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...0 -
Safe as a safe Labour seat such as Don Valley ?? ....Ave_it said:
Hello TSE I was watching it in the pub!TheScreamingEagles said:
Hello Ave It.Ave_it said:Hello Sunil
Sorry to hear about your Dad. Hope you are ok.
Are you doing ELBOW this time?
Were you at Vicarage Road on Monday to see the finest goal to have been scored in the history of that ground?
Yes good goal but not overjoyed. We are not safe yet!
0 -
The drachma, Zimbabwe dollar, Venezuelan bolivar ...Fysics_Teacher said:
I know it's rude to point out typos, particularly when I rely on the computer to conceal my own idiosyncratic approach to spelling, but I love the idea of impotent money.BigRich said:
However 'Odd' or strange a system, a country with more than one currency may sound, it does not mean that it is a bad system.BenedictWhite said:
Quite. The biggest issue for those in the Eurozone is, if you want to get out, how? It would benefit both Greece and Italy not to be in but I can't see a way to get out without enormous pain.Richard_Nabavi said:Whatever else one thinks of Mme Le Pen, what is undeniable is that her plan for France to run two parallel currencies makes Diane Abbott looks like a finance-minister-in-waiting.
If you allow more than one currency and let Individuals and businesses chose which they want to use, them over time they will mostly chose the currency that is best for them. without the dramatic affects of an overnight swap.
If I could recommend any thing I would suggest just abolishing the concept of an official currency, It worked in 18th century Scotland and Canada up till 1913, if done today Bitcoin might become the preferred option. who knows. Just keep the government out of something as impotent as money!0 -
Of course Hillary won all 3 of her debates with Trump and still lostArthur_Penny said:
Twitter is not France - just remember that.Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...0 -
foxinsoxuk
'The Republicans will come up with a better candidate, and Macron will be the successful incumbent.'
Macron will go the same way as Hollande who proposed some minor changes and was crushed by the French unions.
The French unions make UNITE look like a wimp.0 -
Yippee! Crossover August 20th...wait a minute.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Thanks Ave it, the funeral's on Friday, but slowly coming to terms with his loss.Ave_it said:Hello Sunil
Sorry to hear about your Dad. Hope you are ok.
Are you doing ELBOW this time?
I already did ELBOW for week-ending 23rd April, and 30th April
30th April (9 polls):
Con 46.33
Lab 28.11
LD 10.22
UKIP 6.67
Tory Lead: 18.22
23rd April (10 polls):
Con 45.50
Lab 26.10
LD 10.40
UKIP 8.60
Tory Lead: 19.40
Condolences on your Dad. Remember to take care of yourself.0 -
Would have won under French rulesHYUFD said:
Of course Hillary won all 3 of her debates with Trump and still lostArthur_Penny said:
Twitter is not France - just remember that.Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...
0 -
Sterling, post brexit?MTimT said:
The drachma, Zimbabwe dollar, Venezuelan bolivar ...Fysics_Teacher said:
I know it's rude to point out typos, particularly when I rely on the computer to conceal my own idiosyncratic approach to spelling, but I love the idea of impotent money.BigRich said:
However 'Odd' or strange a system, a country with more than one currency may sound, it does not mean that it is a bad system.BenedictWhite said:
Quite. The biggest issue for those in the Eurozone is, if you want to get out, how? It would benefit both Greece and Italy not to be in but I can't see a way to get out without enormous pain.Richard_Nabavi said:Whatever else one thinks of Mme Le Pen, what is undeniable is that her plan for France to run two parallel currencies makes Diane Abbott looks like a finance-minister-in-waiting.
If you allow more than one currency and let Individuals and businesses chose which they want to use, them over time they will mostly chose the currency that is best for them. without the dramatic affects of an overnight swap.
If I could recommend any thing I would suggest just abolishing the concept of an official currency, It worked in 18th century Scotland and Canada up till 1913, if done today Bitcoin might become the preferred option. who knows. Just keep the government out of something as impotent as money!0 -
IanB2 said:
Lots of Labour Tories as wellisam said:
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...kle4 said:
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.bobajobPB said:
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.MTimT said:
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
Haven't seen the Momentum Tories yet, but no doubt they'll turn up some time around 9 June as the post-election purge proceeds.0 -
Congrats and good luck. Was great to chat at the drinks a few weeks back, don't forget us when you're rich and famousTissue_Price said:Hello everyone. I'm obviously delighted to be selected and know that we have a very stiff - but doable - task ahead of us. More news to follow soon but I need to get some sleep as I'm knocking up in the constituency tomorrow and then attending the Mayoral count overnight. It will be interesting to see how we get on in the more Labour/UKIP parts. As someone said below, they are key. You have to ask people for their vote, especially when it's for the first time.
Thanks to everyone who has wished me well from all parts of the political spectrum.
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Don't jack! If we lose all our remaining games and Swansea win theirs we are down!JackW said:
Safe as a safe Labour seat such as Don Valley ?? ....Ave_it said:
Hello TSE I was watching it in the pub!TheScreamingEagles said:
Hello Ave It.Ave_it said:Hello Sunil
Sorry to hear about your Dad. Hope you are ok.
Are you doing ELBOW this time?
Were you at Vicarage Road on Monday to see the finest goal to have been scored in the history of that ground?
Yes good goal but not overjoyed. We are not safe yet!0 -
I'm thinking of getting a Thatcher tattoo, just as an insurance measure for the Tory dystopia that awaits us.MTimT said:IanB2 said:
Lots of Labour Tories as wellisam said:
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...kle4 said:
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.bobajobPB said:
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.MTimT said:
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
Haven't seen the Momentum Tories yet, but no doubt they'll turn up some time around 9 June as the post-election purge proceeds.0 -
That was with Macron voters only, so not much of a surprise! They gave it as 63/34 overall.NickPalmer said:
96-3 on that question is a bit amazing!Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...0 -
Clinton wasn't 20 points clear of Trump 4 days before the election.HYUFD said:
Of course Hillary won all 3 of her debates with Trump and still lostArthur_Penny said:
Twitter is not France - just remember that.Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...0 -
She was 3 points or so clear, and ended up err 3 points clearJackW said:
Clinton wasn't 20 points clear of Trump 4 days before the election.HYUFD said:
Of course Hillary won all 3 of her debates with Trump and still lostArthur_Penny said:
Twitter is not France - just remember that.Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice... 0 -
Good luck for Friday SunilSunil_Prasannan said:
Thanks Ave it, the funeral's on Friday, but slowly coming to terms with his loss.Ave_it said:Hello Sunil
Sorry to hear about your Dad. Hope you are ok.
Are you doing ELBOW this time?
I already did ELBOW for week-ending 23rd April, and 30th April
30th April (9 polls):
Con 46.33
Lab 28.11
LD 10.22
UKIP 6.67
Tory Lead: 18.22
23rd April (10 polls):
Con 45.50
Lab 26.10
LD 10.40
UKIP 8.60
Tory Lead: 19.40
My projection is:
CON 42
LAB 28
LD 10
UKIP 8
GRN 2
SNP 4
OTH 6
CON maj 70
0 -
Macron's tactic, I think, was to say to the many non partisan voters, you may not know me or like me, but the FN are not nice or trustworthy people. I would say Marine Le Pen somewhat reinforced his point.Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...
Despite the insults there were interesting ideas in that debate from both candidates about what France wants in these difficult times for the country.0 -
12% of Le Pen voters thought Macron won...brokenwheel said:
That was with Macron voters only, so not much of a surprise!NickPalmer said:
96-3 on that question is a bit amazing!Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...0 -
kle4 said:
I'm thinking of getting a Thatcher tattoo, just as an insurance measure for the Tory dystopia that awaits us.MTimT said:IanB2 said:
Lots of Labour Tories as wellisam said:
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...kle4 said:
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.bobajobPB said:
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.MTimT said:
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
Haven't seen the Momentum Tories yet, but no doubt they'll turn up some time around 9 June as the post-election purge proceeds. 0 -
Debating on PB should be excellent preparation for political debate generally, and particularly the shenanigans of opponents and media figures attempting deflection, insult, obfuscation, whataboutery, insult again, classical warfare references, repetition, insult, gotcha questions and insult.ThreeQuidder said:
Congrats and good luck. Was great to chat at the drinks a few weeks back, don't forget us when you're rich and famousTissue_Price said:Hello everyone. I'm obviously delighted to be selected and know that we have a very stiff - but doable - task ahead of us. More news to follow soon but I need to get some sleep as I'm knocking up in the constituency tomorrow and then attending the Mayoral count overnight. It will be interesting to see how we get on in the more Labour/UKIP parts. As someone said below, they are key. You have to ask people for their vote, especially when it's for the first time.
Thanks to everyone who has wished me well from all parts of the political spectrum.0 -
I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.0
-
Not far off the number of UKIP Remainers in some polls...Pulpstar said:
12% of Le Pen voters thought Macron won...brokenwheel said:
That was with Macron voters only, so not much of a surprise!NickPalmer said:
96-3 on that question is a bit amazing!Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...0 -
& Plaid to take every seat in WalesAve_it said:
Good luck for Friday SunilSunil_Prasannan said:
Thanks Ave it, the funeral's on Friday, but slowly coming to terms with his loss.Ave_it said:Hello Sunil
Sorry to hear about your Dad. Hope you are ok.
Are you doing ELBOW this time?
I already did ELBOW for week-ending 23rd April, and 30th April
30th April (9 polls):
Con 46.33
Lab 28.11
LD 10.22
UKIP 6.67
Tory Lead: 18.22
23rd April (10 polls):
Con 45.50
Lab 26.10
LD 10.40
UKIP 8.60
Tory Lead: 19.40
My projection is:
CON 42
LAB 28
LD 10
UKIP 8
GRN 2
SNP 4
OTH 6
CON maj 70 0 -
Almost dull, after the dizzying heights seen, but plausible.Ave_it said:
CON maj 70Sunil_Prasannan said:
Thanks Ave it, the funeral's on Friday, but slowly coming to terms with his loss.Ave_it said:Hello Sunil
Sorry to hear about your Dad. Hope you are ok.
Are you doing ELBOW this time?
I already did ELBOW for week-ending 23rd April, and 30th April
30th April (9 polls):
Con 46.33
Lab 28.11
LD 10.22
UKIP 6.67
Tory Lead: 18.22
23rd April (10 polls):
Con 45.50
Lab 26.10
LD 10.40
UKIP 8.60
Tory Lead: 19.400 -
French unions are oddly weak in terms of membership numbers - only around 8% of the working population compared with 25% in UK. They are just louder and more aggressive, and because they never had a Thatcher/Scargill moment, enjoy more rights and privileges than our ones do.walterw said:foxinsoxuk
'The Republicans will come up with a better candidate, and Macron will be the successful incumbent.'
Macron will go the same way as Hollande who proposed some minor changes and was crushed by the French unions.
The French unions make UNITE look like a wimp.0 -
Elabe poll on who was most convincing in the TV debate:
overall: 63% Macron, 34% Le Pen;
Mélenchon voters: 66% - 30%;
Macron voters: 95% - 3%;
Fillon voters: 58% - 38%;
Le Pen voters: 12% - 85%;
abstainers in first round: n/a0 -
Corbyn or May forced choice on who can negotiate Brexit better. Alot of Con/LD floaters won't risk Corbyn even if they think Brexit is utter mince.AndyJS said:I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
0 -
Yes I guess if you are in the SWP or CPGB then Momentum are the Tories who sold their souls to mainstream politics. If that's the right phrase.MTimT said:IanB2 said:
Lots of Labour Tories as wellisam said:
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...kle4 said:
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.bobajobPB said:
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.MTimT said:
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
Haven't seen the Momentum Tories yet, but no doubt they'll turn up some time around 9 June as the post-election purge proceeds.0 -
If the right podcast were up you could listen to the theories on that about 2/3 of the way through.AndyJS said:I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
https://kpedley.podbean.com/e/polling-matters-episode-100-firing-the-starting-gun-brexit-rows-and-where-is-the-lib-dem-surge/0 -
Tory lead in "freefall"!RobD said:
According to my plots, the Tory share is flatlining at 47% (of course that depends where you measure the average). I'm looking forward to the ELBOW this week!kle4 said:
Still below 20 point lead, no room for excitement there.RobD said:
Oh baby.TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)
https://goo.gl/7cTbAf
ELBOW Tory lead week-ending 23rd = 19.4
ELBOW Tory lead week-ending 30th = 18.20 -
And she had a few assists as well (didn't it cost a CNN 'reporter' her job?). Anyway - in the USA it is the States that ultimately select someone to preside over them. In France it is the people directly, in the UK it is Parliament.HYUFD said:
Of course Hillary won all 3 of her debates with Trump and still lostArthur_Penny said:
Twitter is not France - just remember that.Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...
It looks like the Labour vote distribution is going to be more like the Democrats than the Republicans - where previously it was vice-versa. The poll for Tees Valley Mayor rather reinforces this,0 -
The latest Elabe poll has Melenchon voters splitting 44% Macron 23% Le Pen and Fillon voters 46% Macron 30% Le Pen so both Macron and Le Pen have improved their performance a bit though it will depends on who turns out, I expect a lot of Melenchon voters in particular will abstainCyan said:Elabe poll on who was most convincing in the TV debate:
overall: 63% Macron, 34% Le Pen;
Mélenchon voters: 66% - 30%;
Macron voters: 95% - 3%;
Fillon voters: 58% - 38%;
Le Pen voters: 12% - 85%;
abstainers in first round: n/a
https://www.slideshare.net/contactElabe/intentions-de-vote-prsidentielles-vague-120 -
So, well to the left of Theresa then...CaptainMatt said:I'm somewhere to the right of Maggie
0 -
Even some fairly mainstream stuff says Corbyn is not really left wing, at least if the title is anything to go by (I'm not a subscriber)IanB2 said:
Yes I guess if you are in the SWP or CPGB then Momentum are the Tories who sold their souls to mainstream politics. If that's the right phrase.MTimT said:IanB2 said:
Lots of Labour Tories as wellisam said:
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...kle4 said:
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.bobajobPB said:
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.MTimT said:
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
Haven't seen the Momentum Tories yet, but no doubt they'll turn up some time around 9 June as the post-election purge proceeds.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/03/far-being-left-wing-radical-jeremy-corbyn-slouching-towards-milibandism
And apparently Mr Scargill thinks so too
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/09/arthur-scargill-jeremy-corbyn-isnt-left-wing-enough/
In fairness, his policies in many areas are not really his biggest problem. Inflexibility and ability are.0 -
You're right of course. May's outburst had all the indications of a person under severe stress, facing the realisation that the "red, white and blue" Brexit she was looking for will be the worst of all for the UK economy and the population as a whole and is now looking to blame anyone but herself for this debacle.kle4 said:
We've been told that was already the most likely outcome, and the EU's position was set, indeed their hostile leaking indicated that. May's rhetoric will have had zero impact on any serious negotiations, since only fools would negotiate based off the remarks played for a domestic audience during an election campaign. As the EU are presumably not fools, it will have no impact on their position, therefore it cannot be a big deal.daodao said:
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
There is no hatred of us by the Europeans, that only exists in the mind of Daily Mail readers and the "fruit loons and nut jobs" that thought voting Leave would improve things in the UK. Well, as you can now see and hear, it won't for at least a generation, but don't blame anyone but yourselves because you were told this would be the likely outcome before the vote.0 -
And Republicanskle4 said:
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.bobajobPB said:
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.MTimT said:
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today! 0 -
Probably worth pointing out the question is who was the more convincing in the debate, not who you would vote for.HYUFD said:
The latest Elabe poll has Melenchon voters splitting 44% Macron 23% Le Pen and Fillon voters 46% Macron 30% Le Pen so both Macron and Le Pen have improved their performance a bit though it will depends on who turns out, I expect a lot of Melenchon voters in particular will abstainCyan said:Elabe poll on who was most convincing in the TV debate:
overall: 63% Macron, 34% Le Pen;
Mélenchon voters: 66% - 30%;
Macron voters: 95% - 3%;
Fillon voters: 58% - 38%;
Le Pen voters: 12% - 85%;
abstainers in first round: n/a
https://www.slideshare.net/contactElabe/intentions-de-vote-prsidentielles-vague-120 -
Makes sense only if he wanted to go. Otherwise you'd have a party in open warfare coming up to the GE and no matter what some might think it isn't in open warfare now.AndyJS said:I still think there might be some moves to get rid of Corbyn after tomorrow's results are announced, assuming they're very bad for Labour, ie. losing most of the mayoral contests, and failing to win a single county council.
As it is, the locals may not be at the lowest end of the expectancy scale.0 -
Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles... 0
-
Brown got 29% and Miliband 30%. If Corbyn comes out with 28% (OK 27% adjusting for NI) then the case for him staying, in the eyes of his supporters, will there to be made....0
-
Like most other places the extreme right in France aren't the brightest and are unlikely to be watching the debate or therefore to be judging it.Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...0 -
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
0 -
I think you'll find it is God who selects someone to preside over the UK, via royal genetics.Arthur_Penny said:
And she had a few assists as well (didn't it cost a CNN 'reporter' her job?). Anyway - in the USA it is the States that ultimately select someone to preside over them. In France it is the people directly, in the UK it is Parliament.HYUFD said:
Of course Hillary won all 3 of her debates with Trump and still lostArthur_Penny said:
Twitter is not France - just remember that.Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...
(Yes, I know you mean the PM)
If we end up no deal, and that ends up as bad as it could, I will need to do a mea culpa, not that it will mitigate things at that point.Ally_B said:
You're right of course. May's outburst had all the indications of a person under severe stress, facing the realisation that the "red, white and blue" Brexit she was looking for will be the worst of all for the UK economy and the population as a whole and is now looking to blame anyone but herself for this debacle.kle4 said:
We've beig deal.daodao said:
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.CaptainMatt said:I'm ae thing today!
There is no hatred of us by the Europeans, that only exists in the mind of Daily Mail readers and the fruit loons and nut jobs that thought voting Leave would improve things in the UK. Well, as you can now see and hear, it won't for at least a generation, but don't blame anyone but yourselves because you were told this would be the likely outcome before the vote.0 -
You're missing the bit where we take over Europe to the Caucuses and Urals for a short while ...TheScreamingEagles said:
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
0 -
They have said nothing so far to appeal to me (and I was willing to be wooed). It is all Brexit, and gay sex. I was there to be convinced, but I was a Corbyn/May remainer not a Europhile. Brexit will happen like it or not. Plus they have only Farron now. The days they could put Kennedy, Ashdown, Cable, Laws, etc. in front of the cameras are long gone.AndyJS said:I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
0 -
Agreed. The party really will have been split from years of infighting, and they could argue at least somewhat credibly if he had been backed properly they could have built on that 28%.IanB2 said:Brown got 29% and Miliband 30%. If Corbyn comes out with 28% (OK 27% adjusting for NI) then the case for him staying, in the eyes of his supporters, will there to be made....
0 -
Yes, two very different (almost entirely opposite) visions for France. If nothing else the election certainly puts paid to the old argument of "they're all the same" -FF43 said:
Macron's tactic, I think, was to say to the many non partisan voters, you may not know me or like me, but the FN are not nice or trustworthy people. I would say Marine Le Pen somewhat reinforced his point.Paristonda said:
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417
Macron crushing the post debate polls.
Which is nice...
Despite the insults there were interesting ideas in that debate from both candidates about what France wants in these difficult times for the country.
Trump/Clinton, Macron/Le Pen, Corbyn/May ; we've never had such diverging choices in leaders.0 -
Seems like if we're to be split we already have 4 discrete units for that.TheScreamingEagles said:
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
0 -
Matt on form in tomorrow's Telegraph.0
-
I don't believe tories will get as high 48 nor do I believe labour will get 29....again that would have corbyn basically doing as well as brown and miliband. It just doesn't feel right at all.TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)0 -
Since June 23rd I've half written a thread which says Brexit is the greatest strategic blunder by a European country since Hitler abrogated the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact and launched Operation Barbarossa.MTimT said:
You're missing the bit where we take over Europe to the Caucuses and Urals for a short while ...TheScreamingEagles said:
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
I might finish it for this weekend.0 -
Well in 2015 the Tories marmalised the Lib Dem vote, and it looks like they're keeping most of it. And in 2017 it'll be the UKIP vote that is marmalised and kept...IanB2 said:Brown got 29% and Miliband 30%. If Corbyn comes out with 28% (OK 27% adjusting for NI) then the case for him staying, in the eyes of his supporters, will there to be made....
Labour actually went up under Ed Miliband remember, I doubt Corbyn will keep that up.
Oh those halycon days of Ed Miliband.0 -
This is probably the most inappropriate and off topic I have ever been, but my immediate thought was:dixiedean said:
It is all Brexit, and gay sex.AndyJS said:I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
Take back control...Hard: A Brexit Porno
Probably an indication to sign off.0 -
Socially well to the left of Theresa, economically well to the rightScott_P said:
So, well to the left of Theresa then...CaptainMatt said:I'm somewhere to the right of Maggie
0 -
Except we are not the Nazis attempting to expand their empire but escaping oneTheScreamingEagles said:
Since June 23rd I've half written a thread which says Brexit is the greatest strategic blunder by a European country since Hitler abrogated the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact and launched Operation Barbarossa.MTimT said:
You're missing the bit where we take over Europe to the Caucuses and Urals for a short while ...TheScreamingEagles said:
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
I might finish it for this weekend.0 -
What's the point of being in politics if you don't have the courage to get rid of poor leaders?kle4 said:
The dream of many, but it is hard to see how they'd work up the courage (and though I think it'll be bad for them, I don't think it will be as bad as that scenario) or how it would even help much. He wouldn't go, not without a chance to fight the GE. and then they're stuck, in open warfare. As ridiculous as 'Vote for Labour but please know I dislike Corbyn too' is as a strategy, it's better than being openly at each others' throats en masse. At that point you are only going to vote Labour to save the brand, and as strong as it still is, that's a lot of faith to place in it.AndyJS said:I still think there might be some moves to get rid of Corbyn after tomorrow's results are announced, assuming they're very bad for Labour, ie. losing most of the mayoral contests, and failing to win a single county council.
0 -
I thought the treaty of Versailles settled the first world war, and Germany's reparations. I am not aware of Germany being either "war ravaged" in the way it was in WW2 or partitioned and occupied.TheScreamingEagles said:
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
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Well they did try, but in any case politics is about more than courage it is also about judgement. They showed very poor judgement getting themselves into this situation, but now the judgement is would trying, again, to oust him, at this moment, actually make things any better?AndyJS said:
What's the point of being in politics if you don't have the courage to get rid of poor leaders?kle4 said:
The dream of many, but it is hard to see how they'd work up the courage (and though I think it'll be bad for them, I don't think it will be as bad as that scenario) or how it would even help much. He wouldn't go, not without a chance to fight the GE. and then they're stuck, in open warfare. As ridiculous as 'Vote for Labour but please know I dislike Corbyn too' is as a strategy, it's better than being openly at each others' throats en masse. At that point you are only going to vote Labour to save the brand, and as strong as it still is, that's a lot of faith to place in it.AndyJS said:I still think there might be some moves to get rid of Corbyn after tomorrow's results are announced, assuming they're very bad for Labour, ie. losing most of the mayoral contests, and failing to win a single county council.
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Well, when we left European control before that is pretty much what happened:TheScreamingEagles said:
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
https://www.archaeology.co.uk/articles/features/britannia-a-failed-state.htm
The immediate post reformation century was pretty rough too...0 -
Or within 15 years we will be governed by a dictator, within 21 years have invaded and conquered most of Europe and even if eventually defeated go on to become the largest European economy (though hopefully avoiding a second holocaust in the meantime)TheScreamingEagles said:
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
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So anyone who has ever been a member of UKIP, you were the enablers of fascism.
I hope you're all feeling proud of yourselves tonight.
I think that's what I'll do Sunday's thread on.0 -
Are they just seen as irrelevant? Farron isn't even prompted in "best PM" questions.AndyJS said:I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
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I assume that we've all seen the joy that is Chuck Tingle?kle4 said:
This is probably the most inappropriate and off topic I have ever been, but my immediate thought was:dixiedean said:
It is all Brexit, and gay sex.AndyJS said:I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
Take back control...Hard: A Brexit Porno
Probably an indication to sign off.0 -
I have now...and I can't unsee it!Rhubarb said:
I assume that we've all seen the joy that is Chuck Tingle?kle4 said:
This is probably the most inappropriate and off topic I have ever been, but my immediate thought was:dixiedean said:
It is all Brexit, and gay sex.AndyJS said:I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
Take back control...Hard: A Brexit Porno
Probably an indication to sign off.0 -
That's why I said 'within 30 years'BenedictWhite said:
I thought the treaty of Versailles settled the first world war, and Germany's reparations. I am not aware of Germany being either "war ravaged" in the way it was in WW2 or partitioned and occupied.TheScreamingEagles said:
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
I'm from the school of history that says The Treaty of Versailles effectively caused WWII.
WWI was based on treaties, it is entirely given slightly different circumstances in WWI, we would have been one of the Central powers, whilst the Germans were one of the Allied Powers.0 -
Theresa May's speech was all megaphone and no diplomacy:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/theresa-mays-speech-might-win-her-election-it-could-cost-britain0 -
I'm starting to wonder whether he might lose his own seat in Westmorland.ThreeQuidder said:
Are they just seen as irrelevant? Farron isn't even prompted in "best PM" questions.AndyJS said:I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
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The worrying thing about her remarks is that they show how she intends to approach Brexit politically - by sabre rattling and blaming the EU for everything that doesn't go her way. She could have, like some of her colleagues, laughed off the dinner leaks in public, had stern words in private and played off Juncker and the hardliners against other figures' desire for a deal. Colour me surprised, a politician has leaked conversations with the aim making themselves look good and justifying their position. It's what they do.kle4 said:
We've been told that was already the most likely outcome, and the EU's position was set, indeed their hostile leaking indicated that. May's rhetoric will have had zero impact on any serious negotiations, since only fools would negotiate based off the remarks played for a domestic audience during an election campaign. As the EU are presumably not fools, it will have no impact on their position, therefore it cannot be a big deal.daodao said:
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
There's a real danger that she boxes herself and the EU into a situation where both us and them can't make a deal because it would involve losing too much politically. May because you can't put the jingoism genie back in the bottle - once you've set yourself up as the great protector of the nation against perfidious foreigners you can't compromise - or you put yourself on the wrong side of nationalism. The EU because it can't be seen to give in and undermine its rules at the behest of a member that's treated it with ill concealed hostility and those within the EU who were initially willing to accept a more beneficial deal are forced into the arms of the hardliners.
So far, our negotiations resemble the prisoner's dilemma, marching towards a very bad outcome for everyone due to the desire or each party to gain the jump on an adversary.0 -
I can't bring myself to actually read it; the reality could never live up to the promise.dixiedean said:
I have now...and I can't unsee it!Rhubarb said:
I assume that we've all seen the joy that is Chuck Tingle?kle4 said:
This is probably the most inappropriate and off topic I have ever been, but my immediate thought was:dixiedean said:
It is all Brexit, and gay sex.AndyJS said:I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
Take back control...Hard: A Brexit Porno
Probably an indication to sign off.0 -
The EUs ever increasing demands show that we are not the only ones playing that game.MJW said:
There's a real danger that she boxes herself and the EU into a situation where both us and them can't make a deal because it would involve losing too much politically.kle4 said:
We've been told that was already the most likely outcome, and the EU's position was set, indeed their hostile leaking indicated that. May's rhetoric will have had zero impact on any serious negotiations, since only fools would negotiate based off the remarks played for a domestic audience during an election campaign. As the EU are presumably not fools, it will have no impact on their position, therefore it cannot be a big deal.daodao said:
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.CaptainMatt said:I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!0 -
Was the Commission's leaking diplomacy?IanB2 said:Theresa May's speech was all megaphone and no diplomacy:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/theresa-mays-speech-might-win-her-election-it-could-cost-britain0 -
Both Farron and Lamb are vulnerable.AndyJS said:
I'm starting to wonder whether he might lose his own seat in Westmorland.ThreeQuidder said:
Are they just seen as irrelevant? Farron isn't even prompted in "best PM" questions.AndyJS said:I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
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The Rhineland was occupied for a while and demilitarised for longer. Bits like the Saar had a forced referendum on which country they wished to be in. Poland was given the Danzig corridor. So the OP is not strictly accurate to say there was no partition or occupation. Nevertheless the key ravaging was economic, since the burden of reparations was immense.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why I said 'within 30 years'BenedictWhite said:
I thought the treaty of Versailles settled the first world war, and Germany's reparations. I am not aware of Germany being either "war ravaged" in the way it was in WW2 or partitioned and occupied.TheScreamingEagles said:
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
I'm from the school of history that says The Treaty of Versailles effectively caused WWII.
WWI was based on treaties, it is entirely given slightly different circumstances in WWI, we would have been one of the Central powers, whilst the Germans were one of the Allied Powers.0 -
I think SeanT finds aspects of Hard Brexit arousing certainlykle4 said:
This is probably the most inappropriate and off topic I have ever been, but my immediate thought was:dixiedean said:
It is all Brexit, and gay sex.AndyJS said:I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
Take back control...Hard: A Brexit Porno
Probably an indication to sign off.0 -
I wonder where the exit treaty will be signed. I'm sure the EU has a symbolic place in mind.RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
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As it says in the article, it most probably was about internal German politics and little to do with the UK.RobD said:
Was the Commission's leaking diplomacy?IanB2 said:Theresa May's speech was all megaphone and no diplomacy:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/theresa-mays-speech-might-win-her-election-it-could-cost-britain
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If we get to that point that implies we've actually been able to negotiate something, and that things may be more cordial.williamglenn said:
I wonder where the exit treaty will be signed. I'm sure the EU has a symbolic place in mind.RobD said:Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
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