Mr. Jim, I'm quite worried the Conservatives will end up with a majority of ludicrous proportions.
Not least because I'll need to update my battlefield list (at the moment -100 for the Battle of Adrianople is the worst result). The initial list only went to Cannae (-70) and I thought that the end of credible losses.
We're into Mboto Gorge territory now it seems.
Labour activists armed with Kiwi fruit and guava halves.
If I were a Labour activist I think my response would be simply, wibble.
Brexit and Corbyn have miraculously combined to unsplit the right (UKIP is fucked) and destroy Labour. It's a perfect storm. Lefties should all vote LibDem maybe? They're a halfway decent bunch and might offer some opposition.
Don't get ahead of yourself. A lot of Tory support is coming from Remainers who still don't think Brexit is the right decision.
15 years of growing hatred and despair from the labour core WWC vote is boiling over. Astonishing.
I'm not sure this is right as Corbyn is so different from his predecessors.
Blair secured a sizable majority in 2005, and Brown actually surprised many by holding up quite well in 2010 in the circumstances - contributed to by a strong GOTV operation in exactly that demographic. Miliband also did okay.
I'd also note that the growing hatred and despair plainly hasn't resulted in that core vote going for anything but Labour - the Stoke Central by-election wasn't good for Labour, but they didn't see a UKIP exodus (far from it).
I think what we're seeing is a more sober, and more recently formed judgment that Corbyn cannot possibly be PM.
Mr. Enjineeya, *if* the Conservatives do as well as polling indicates, *and* the Lib Dems finally realise an obvious truth (the Conservatives are their adversaries, Labour are their rivals) and focus on slamming the reds, they could usurp Labour's place in the top two.
I suspect they won't, however.
Mr. Rex, the list (Western only, contemplating adding Kleidion, Manzikert and the Fourth Crusade) is: -100 Adrianople [Malmesbury] -90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion] -80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]
Brexit and Corbyn have miraculously combined to unsplit the right (UKIP is fucked) and destroy Labour. It's a perfect storm. Lefties should all vote LibDem maybe? They're a halfway decent bunch and might offer some opposition.
Don't get ahead of yourself. A lot of Tory support is coming from Remainers who still don't think Brexit is the right decision.
Indeed many don't. But the large majority also respect the vote and think we should get on with it optimally. The choice the country faces is May or Corbyn. That's no choice at all really is it? I said earlier I'd save my judgment until the Welsh poll came in as it will tell a story of where this GE is going. And it did in spades. Tories 10% ahead - in Wales! I'm calling a monster landslide now.
While movements of =< 2 % are well within MOE and probably not worth the oxygen ...
ICM's last polls
Con 48% Lab 27% LD 10% April 24th Con 46% Lab 25% LibDem 11% April 19th (after announcement) Con 44% Labour 26% LD 10% April 18th (all fieldwork collected before announcement)
I might have missed something, but the only non-MOE change there is ...
The scientist in me is also telling you that 2 data points do not make a trend.
Have we had a new ICM poll?
Have just had a look at Mike's Twitter and here's the answer
Mr. Jim, I'm quite worried the Conservatives will end up with a majority of ludicrous proportions.
Not least because I'll need to update my battlefield list (at the moment -100 for the Battle of Adrianople is the worst result). The initial list only went to Cannae (-70) and I thought that the end of credible losses.
We're into Mboto Gorge territory now it seems.
Anglo-Zanzibar war? (From the Zanzibar point of view of course).
Mr. Jim, I'm quite worried the Conservatives will end up with a majority of ludicrous proportions.
Not least because I'll need to update my battlefield list (at the moment -100 for the Battle of Adrianople is the worst result). The initial list only went to Cannae (-70) and I thought that the end of credible losses.
This is the loss of Constantinople and the beginning of six centuries of strife
Or, slightly earlier but of a similar nature, the Siege of Baghdad?
Brexit and Corbyn have miraculously combined to unsplit the right (UKIP is fucked) and destroy Labour. It's a perfect storm. Lefties should all vote LibDem maybe? They're a halfway decent bunch and might offer some opposition.
Don't get ahead of yourself. A lot of Tory support is coming from Remainers who still don't think Brexit is the right decision.
They don't think Brexit is the right decision, but they know for a fact Corbyn is the wrong decision. He is utterly toxic outside of any venue not full of Jezbollah members.
Mr. Jim, I'm quite worried the Conservatives will end up with a majority of ludicrous proportions.
Not least because I'll need to update my battlefield list (at the moment -100 for the Battle of Adrianople is the worst result). The initial list only went to Cannae (-70) and I thought that the end of credible losses.
Carrhae?
The Teutoberg Forest?
Mind you those weren't quite terminal for the losing side.
I'm getting a tad concerned things are so grim for Labour they might just get rid of Jezza mid-campaign!!!!!
Is there any actual mechanism for them to do that?
They can challenge now, nothing stopping them. They can also resign the whip en masse and stage a gigantic rebellion, appointing a new leader in the Commons. As extreme a solution that is, I am wondering if it might be the least worst option. My wife revealed last night she is NOT voting Labour while ever Corbyn is there – and she is a former Corbynista. If she doesn't vote Labour, they are FUBAR.
Brexit and Corbyn have miraculously combined to unsplit the right (UKIP is fucked) and destroy Labour. It's a perfect storm. Lefties should all vote LibDem maybe? They're a halfway decent bunch and might offer some opposition.
That's why I thought it might be a good idea to bet on the LDs coming second in the popular vote.
Jeremy Corbyn is in Scotland telling voters to reject the "vicious Conservatives".
The combination of anti-Tory and anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland will squeeze Labour down to nothing.
He's thick, just plain thick isn't he.
Where are the Lab-Con marginals in Scotland ? It is a one seat strategy, and Labour aren't at the races in that seat.
How does this message help them in left leaning Glasgow. The man is just utterly inept.
This is where Labour are going to lose: it is not just that- for example- the Lib Dem press office have been running rings around Labour for months, the whole organisation that Labour relies on for its ground war is badly prepared and badly funded. meanwhile the Labour leadership is clueless, genuinely believing that they can - indeed should- ignore the press in the air war. They are losing control of the narrative in a way that Alastair Campbell must be tearing his hair out over.
The only caveat is that it is becoming clear that Mrs. May probably did have to call this election- the Police seem to believe that there is a case to answer in at least 15 cases of electoral fraud, and reports will shortly be sent to the DPP. When?
Then there is Brexit: the ABs of the Waitrose crowd are now it seems very detached from the Tories, while the CDs may be currently swinging Tory quite stongly, so there is a highly unpredictable churn underway. Some surprising seats might be lost and gained.
For many campaigns (not 2010 or 2015, however) the Liberal/Lib Dem vote has grown during the campaign. The Lib Dems just topped 100,000 members and have raised over £1M in their first week, which is way above any previous campaign I have been involved in (going back to 1979). Labour, by contrast, could be heavily damaged by the campaign: equivocal on Brexit, the key issue of the day and with their underfunded campaign in a total mess.
Most of the observers here are basing their ideas on 2010 or 2015- it seems to me that something quite different is underway.
There are seven weeks, and there will clearly be many twists and turns in this campaign, but Labour seem to be in a huge amount of trouble, squeezed and inept, so this could end up as an epochal result and the end of Labour in anything like its current form. Our forecasts of the future are often prisoners of the past, but the omens currently look very ominous indeed for Labour. Yet the risks from the electoral fraud prosecutions are not negligible, so at the moment I am being cautious about most positions except that I am more bullish on the Lib Dems than the polls currently support: A buy at current spreads.
"Prof Roger Scully has written a good analysis of the YouGov Welsh voting poll (see 4.22pm) on his Cardiff University Elections in Wales blog. He says that, if these figures were to be replicated at a general election, the Conservatives would have 21 Welsh seats and Labour 15. He says the Tories have not had a majority of Welsh seats since the 1850s."
Following OGH and Peter Hitchens (who rips off Enoch with his metaphor I believe)
"This menace has been worrying the Cabinet for some months, as it has become clear it will not go away. And it is a far better explanation of the Prime Minister’s change of heart than her rather weird and incoherent speech in Downing Street. I happen to think she is a naturally truthful person and meant what she said when she previously declared several times that she was going to stay on till 2020. But the expenses allegations, which started as a cloud on the horizon no bigger than a man’s hand, have grown and grown. I suspect her advisers have been telling her she cannot risk them coming into the open late in a Parliament when, perhaps, the economy is not doing well, or EU negotiations are going badly or Labour has a new leader."
I'm getting a tad concerned things are so grim for Labour they might just get rid of Jezza mid-campaign!!!!!
Is there any actual mechanism for them to do that?
Peel off and run as a different party. En masse. And hope labour support follows
They wouldn't have time to register it? And if they continued to run as Labour (e.g. they defected after nominations were closed), it'd create civil war with the activists. They'd also lose access to all Labour's campaign data.
I'm not sure this is right as Corbyn is so different from his predecessors.
Blair secured a sizable majority in 2005, and Brown actually surprised many by holding up quite well in 2010 in the circumstances - contributed to by a strong GOTV operation in exactly that demographic. Miliband also did okay.
I'd also note that the growing hatred and despair plainly hasn't resulted in that core vote going for anything but Labour - the Stoke Central by-election wasn't good for Labour, but they didn't see a UKIP exodus (far from it).
I think what we're seeing is a more sober, and more recently formed judgment that Corbyn cannot possibly be PM.
I'm inclined to agree - there are some interesting nuggets in the Labour policy programme as revealed so far and beyond "Trust Theresa" we know almost nothing of the Conservative programme for 2017-22.
The decision to open the franchise by Ed Miliband and run the risk of infiltration by those not well disposed to the Party was matched only by the decision of Labour MPs to nominate Corbyn.
Had either one of those not happened and Yvette Cooper been Labour leader since 2015, I doubt there would be a GE now and while the Conservatives might be leading polls, they wouldn't be 20+ points ahead.
It's nothing to do with WWC or "identity politics" - it's wholly politically self-inflicted wounds. It doesn't mean the "end" of Labour either - the Party will re-group much as the Conservatives did after the 1997 and 2001 routs.
A fresh leader and a fresh message might resonate strongly by 2019-20.
Normally just one of those talking points would be enough to cause a massive media storm and effectively end your career as a leading politician. It makes taking a few quid to ask a question in parliament look like scrumping for apples.
The Tories would be stupid not to be spreading those facts.
Jeremy Corbyn is in Scotland telling voters to reject the "vicious Conservatives".
The combination of anti-Tory and anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland will squeeze Labour down to nothing.
He's thick, just plain thick isn't he.
Where are the Lab-Con marginals in Scotland ? It is a one seat strategy, and Labour aren't at the races in that seat.
How does this message help them in left leaning Glasgow. The man is just utterly inept.
(Snip)
The only caveat is that it is becoming clear that Mrs. May probably did have to call this election- the Police seem to believe that there is a case to answer in at least 15 cases of electoral fraud, and reports will shortly be sent to the DPP. When?
Then there is Brexit: the ABs of the Waitrose crowd are now it seems very detached from the Tories, while the CDs may be currently swinging Tory quite stongly, so there is a highly unpredictable churn underway. Some surprising seats might be lost and gained.
For many campaigns (not 2010 or 2015, however) the Liberal/Lib Dem vote has grown during the campaign. The Lib Dems just topped 100,000 members and have raised over £1M in their first week, which is way above any previous campaign I have been involved in (going back to 1979). Labour, by contrast, could be heavily damaged by the campaign: equivocal on Brexit, the key issue of the day and with their underfunded campaign in a total mess.
Most of the observers here are basing their ideas on 2010 or 2015- it seems to me that something quite different is underway.
There are seven weeks, and there will clearly be many twists and turns in this campaign, but Labour seem to be in a huge amount of trouble, squeezed and inept, so this could end up as an epochal result and the end of Labour in anything like its current form. Our forecasts of the future are often prisoners of the past, but the omens currently look very ominous indeed for Labour. Yet the risks from the electoral fraud prosecutions are not negligible, so at the moment I am being cautious about most positions except that I am more bullish on the Lib Dems than the polls currently support: A buy at current spreads.
There may or may not be a swing to the LibDems as it becomes clear that Corbyn simply cannot win. It it his hard to believe that the Tories are simply going to stroll through six weeks of campaigning without some sort of wobble, even if the outcome is as certain as predicted. If there is a wobble at some point, that makes the Tory projections a trading sell at their current high levels?
Labour still faces the problem of squaring support from the working class with support from liberal metropolitan types.
And it's lost seats (assuming it does so in the near future) at every election following 1997 (five in a row). Corbyn's a major problem, but not the only one.
As I said before, if the Lib Dems see what's in front of them, there's a small chance they could depose Labour as the major party of the left. Doubt it'll happen, though.
"Prof Roger Scully has written a good analysis of the YouGov Welsh voting poll (see 4.22pm) on his Cardiff University Elections in Wales blog. He says that, if these figures were to be replicated at a general election, the Conservatives would have 21 Welsh seats and Labour 15. He says the Tories have not had a majority of Welsh seats since the 1850s."
The good professor clearly has a sense of humour: "Some caution is needed. This is only one poll. Moreover, there are more than six weeks of both national and local campaigning to go. It could be that the sight of Jeremy Corbyn on their television screens night-after-night will encourage voters to flock back to Labour. Or perhaps not."
I'm getting a tad concerned things are so grim for Labour they might just get rid of Jezza mid-campaign!!!!!
Is there any actual mechanism for them to do that?
It is such an obvious move to close the gap to low single figures if not a lead that I really do wonder why they don't do it.
It's not straightforward. Were the rules the same as Tory rules (which they damn well should be) Corbyn would have gone months ago. That said, no reason why they can't rebel en masse and run on an anti Corbyn ticket, appoint a caretaker in the Commons for the time being. They can point out that Corbyn himself ran against the leadership for decades until he became leader!
On a positive note - it looks like this election will once and for all destroy the far left's assertion that the country wants far leftyism. This will either kill Labour as it stays far left, or, more likely, kill the far left in Labour who then recover. But all roads to salvation lie through Mboto Gorge.
I'm getting a tad concerned things are so grim for Labour they might just get rid of Jezza mid-campaign!!!!!
Is there any actual mechanism for them to do that?
Peel off and run as a different party. En masse. And hope labour support follows
They wouldn't have time to register it? And if they continued to run as Labour (e.g. they defected after nominations were closed), it'd create civil war with the activists. They'd also lose access to all Labour's campaign data.
Much of the party machine is deeply anti Corbyn. It is only the leader's office and the (often bone idle) Corbynista membership rump that are for him – and both of those two constituencies are a net negative.
On a positive note - it looks like this election will once and for all destroy the far left's assertion that the country wants far leftyism. This will either kill Labour as it stays far left, or, more likely, kill the far left in Labour who then recover. But all roads to salvation lie through Mboto Gorge.
I bet Paul mason and poly Toynbee will still be banging on about progressive alliances in 2018, 2019, 2020, ....
Normally just one of those talking points would be enough to cause a massive media storm and effectively end your career as a leading politician. It makes taking a few quid to ask a question in parliament look like scrumping for apples.
The Tories would be stupid not to be spreading those facts.
When you're 20 points up, it's ungentlemanly to be spreading such information. The public doesn't like a bully.
Still, I suppose someone else will get the story out.
The Wales poll is a 9.5% swing since the general election (the equivalent of the Conservatives having a 25% lead over Labour across the whole of the UK).
Mr. Jim, I'm quite worried the Conservatives will end up with a majority of ludicrous proportions.
Not least because I'll need to update my battlefield list (at the moment -100 for the Battle of Adrianople is the worst result). The initial list only went to Cannae (-70) and I thought that the end of credible losses.
There's a limit to how high the Tories go which is probably around 45% in terms of the actual result rather the poll numbers. If Labour keep sinking their votes will go to the LDs instead.
The Wales poll is a 9.5% swing since the general election (the equivalent of the Conservatives having a 25% lead over Labour across the whole of the UK).
The Wales poll is a 9.5% swing since the general election (the equivalent of the Conservatives having a 25% lead over Labour across the whole of the UK).
Labour heading for 100-120 seats. You need the largest black swan in history to prevent that.
I don't buy this bullsh*t that Corbyn and the hard left need to take ownership of this defeat and Labour can re-group from there. He needs to go now or the Labour party, progressive politics or even democracy itself is dead in this country.
On a positive note - it looks like this election will once and for all destroy the far left's assertion that the country wants far leftyism. This will either kill Labour as it stays far left, or, more likely, kill the far left in Labour who then recover. But all roads to salvation lie through Mboto Gorge.
I bet Paul mason and poly Toynbee will still be banging on about progressive alliances in 2018, 2019, 2020, ....
Labour and the LDs were winning over 60% of the vote in 1997, 2001 and 2005 but Labour weren't interesting in forming an alliance because they wanted all the power for themselves at that time. They could have introduced real reforms like proportional representation.
The Wales poll is a 9.5% swing since the general election (the equivalent of the Conservatives having a 25% lead over Labour across the whole of the UK).
So, pretty humdrum!
Right now I'm only willing to raise my eyebrows if there's a poll showing the Conservatives in the lead in Liverpool.
The Wales poll is a 9.5% swing since the general election (the equivalent of the Conservatives having a 25% lead over Labour across the whole of the UK).
Just think how big the lead would be if TM the PM was any good!
I've been trying to catch up on the thread comments but am failing dismally, so apols if this question has already been dealt with.
If the Conservatives are putting on votes in strongly Labour constituencies, where does that leave the Labour GOTV operation come polling day? Seems to me they'll be just as likely to be increasing the Conservative vote as their own.
The 2015 manifesto was primarily the starting negotiation positions for the next round of coalition talks. Its also necessary to have a lot of manifesto commitments to deal with Lords objections.
Of course the next few years are going to see little else done other than dealing with Brexit fallout, so making lots of new policy commitments is a waste of time really.
Normally just one of those talking points would be enough to cause a massive media storm and effectively end your career as a leading politician. It makes taking a few quid to ask a question in parliament look like scrumping for apples.
The Tories would be stupid not to be spreading those facts.
One despairs at the Labour MPs who nominated him (and Labour members now supporting him) because they know all this and have always known it, yet were content to let him remain in their party for 30+ years. How they can now bring themselves to stand for election on the same ticket... on the other hand, every picture tells a story. Vote Labour? Seriously?
Yet today's 'Labour' Party may yet bottom out in the 20's... *shakes head*... because of tribal loyalty. I hope to heaven that the decent tribal loyalists (plenty of those) see that crimesheet before they find themselves tainted by association.
I am happy for the old old Labour giants that they are not alive to witness this terrible disgrace, and all they worked for destroyed by evil people whom they would have thrown out of the Party without a qualm.
On a positive note - it looks like this election will once and for all destroy the far left's assertion that the country wants far leftyism. This will either kill Labour as it stays far left, or, more likely, kill the far left in Labour who then recover. But all roads to salvation lie through Mboto Gorge.
It won't. They'll blame the media, or Labour MPs who didn't get behind Corbyn. They're cultists and electoral reality matters not a jot to them.
Of course Mrs May herself backed Remain as indeed did I but given we voted Leave there is no point going back now and unless the LDs get most MPs we won't. The question has now moved on to whether you put membership of the single market first or ending free movement and reducing payments to Brussels, if the former you will vote Labour, LD, SNP, Plaid, Sinn Fein or Green if the latter Tory, UKIP or DUP
Hello again, HYUFD. Can you put me right on something? I had you down as one of our (many) excellent US contributors, but this latest post indicates you are a UK voter. Can you confirm, one way or the the other?
And if you thought I was being snarky about your persistence with the 'MLP can make it' line, don't get me wrong. I really enjoyed your contributions last nite and was sufficiently inclined to share your view to hedge my Macron bets. It only cost a few quid, and nobody ever went poor locking in a profit.
As for voting this time, the Corbyn cult will pass so traditional Labour voters like me can feel free to do whatever they like and wait for sanity to return in due course. My local MP is Brexit-supporter John Cryer, so I'll be giving him a miss this time round. With a 15,000 majority, I doubt he'll notice, but what else can you do?
Thanks again for all your excellent contributions, past and present.
PtP
Thanks Peter for your comments and yes I can confirm I am a UK voter. I also think you will not be alone amongst Labour voters in switching to the Liberals this time
The moment a 15-year-old Emmanuel Macron kissed his 40-year-old teacher - two years before he declared he wanted to marry her. She left her husband and three children for him.
I'm getting a tad concerned things are so grim for Labour they might just get rid of Jezza mid-campaign!!!!!
Is there any actual mechanism for them to do that?
They can challenge now, nothing stopping them. They can also resign the whip en masse and stage a gigantic rebellion, appointing a new leader in the Commons. As extreme a solution that is, I am wondering if it might be the least worst option.
How many more days until Parliament is actually dissolved? That surely is the final moment to knife The Jez?
The Wales poll is a 9.5% swing since the general election (the equivalent of the Conservatives having a 25% lead over Labour across the whole of the UK).
Just think how big the lead would be if TM the PM was any good!
I'm getting a tad concerned things are so grim for Labour they might just get rid of Jezza mid-campaign!!!!!
Is there any actual mechanism for them to do that?
They can challenge now, nothing stopping them. They can also resign the whip en masse and stage a gigantic rebellion, appointing a new leader in the Commons. As extreme a solution that is, I am wondering if it might be the least worst option.
How many more days until Parliament is actually dissolved? That surely is the final moment to knife The Jez?
Labour heading for 100-120 seats. You need the largest black swan in history to prevent that.
I don't buy this bullsh*t that Corbyn and the hard left need to take ownership of this defeat and Labour can re-group from there. He needs to go now or the Labour party, progressive politics or even democracy itself is dead in this country.
I'm edging my prediction down to Lab 170-180. That's how bad they're doing, the man who said Ed M would easily be PM thinks they are going down at least that far.
Neath could be in trouble if the remaining kippers switch to the Tories.
These opinion polls that have the Kippers in single figures aren't allowing for the fact they aren't going to stand in a load of seats... sub 5 a possibility
The Wales poll is a 9.5% swing since the general election (the equivalent of the Conservatives having a 25% lead over Labour across the whole of the UK).
Just think how big the lead would be if TM the PM was any good!
Actually despite what I and many pbers think, for whatever reason Frau Merkel may appears to be bizarrely popular with many traditional non-tory voters. Perhaps after blair and Cameron, having a boring less flash leader is what they want. Not sure a better politician would poll better.
On a positive note - it looks like this election will once and for all destroy the far left's assertion that the country wants far leftyism. This will either kill Labour as it stays far left, or, more likely, kill the far left in Labour who then recover. But all roads to salvation lie through Mboto Gorge.
Who will it destroy the assertion for? Those outside the far left alreayd knew that, while the true far left will still find the split party, the media, the system, to blame, for the people not realising what a is good for them (I Have seen comments comparing it directly to kidnap victims being brainwashed).
The question is will the sensible labour figuers have the strength to remove the far left from their party once and for all if events are as bad as they seem.
Given Corbyn will still be a Lab MP, it's hard to see that all of them are got rid of.
Labour heading for 100-120 seats. You need the largest black swan in history to prevent that.
I don't buy this bullsh*t that Corbyn and the hard left need to take ownership of this defeat and Labour can re-group from there. He needs to go now or the Labour party, progressive politics or even democracy itself is dead in this country.
I'm edging my prediction down to Lab 170-180. That's how bad they're doing, the man who said Ed M would easily be PM thinks they are going down at least that far.
That sounds wildly optimistic for Labour given the Welsh polling.
Neath could be in trouble if the remaining kippers switch to the Tories.
These opinion polls that have the Kippers in single figures aren't allowing for the fact they aren't going to stand in a load of seats... sub 5 a possibility
Do we have a firm number on number of seats contested?
Labour heading for 100-120 seats. You need the largest black swan in history to prevent that.
I don't buy this bullsh*t that Corbyn and the hard left need to take ownership of this defeat and Labour can re-group from there. He needs to go now or the Labour party, progressive politics or even democracy itself is dead in this country.
I'm edging my prediction down to Lab 170-180. That's how bad they're doing, the man who said Ed M would easily be PM thinks they are going down at least that far.
That sounds wildly optimistic for Labour given the Welsh polling.
As I intimated, I've always overestimated Labour. If Im predicting 170-180 it is probably more like 140-150 (I do try to adjust given I am wrong, but its never enough it seems - I did call Brexit right thought)
Labour still faces the problem of squaring support from the working class with support from liberal metropolitan types.
And it's lost seats (assuming it does so in the near future) at every election following 1997 (five in a row). Corbyn's a major problem, but not the only one.
As I said before, if the Lib Dems see what's in front of them, there's a small chance they could depose Labour as the major party of the left. Doubt it'll happen, though.
There really aren't that many liberal metropolitan types around. They are important in a few seats only. Whether people live in cities, towns or villages in the north, the south or the midlands they mostly want and aspire to the same things. This is something that Labour has allowed itself to completely forget. If this was not such a pivotal moment in the history of our country, gifting the Tories untrammelled power for a few years might not be a bad thing if it allowed either Labour to see sense or for something to develop in its place. But the thought of this government being given free rein to inflict whatever kind of Brexit it chooses without any kind of serious scrutiny is genuinely worrying.
I'm getting a tad concerned things are so grim for Labour they might just get rid of Jezza mid-campaign!!!!!
Is there any actual mechanism for them to do that?
They can challenge now, nothing stopping them. They can also resign the whip en masse and stage a gigantic rebellion, appointing a new leader in the Commons. As extreme a solution that is, I am wondering if it might be the least worst option.
How many more days until Parliament is actually dissolved? That surely is the final moment to knife The Jez?
May 2nd/3rd.
Right so we've got like one more week for Jezza to stick to his guns...
I see there's also a Welsh local elections poll which put labour ahead according to @britainelects
Presumably local election results which are not as bad for labour as the GE polls will be good for Corbyn's chances on being defenestrated mid-campaign at least?
So (at least a few) tories should vote labour in the locals....?
Comments
Lab side
Rhondda (4-6) (& Tories 50-1), Aberavon 1-5.
:>
I should probably have bet on some of the easier CON gains too but oh well !
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/04/24/the-first-welsh-poll-of-the-general-election/
Blair secured a sizable majority in 2005, and Brown actually surprised many by holding up quite well in 2010 in the circumstances - contributed to by a strong GOTV operation in exactly that demographic. Miliband also did okay.
I'd also note that the growing hatred and despair plainly hasn't resulted in that core vote going for anything but Labour - the Stoke Central by-election wasn't good for Labour, but they didn't see a UKIP exodus (far from it).
I think what we're seeing is a more sober, and more recently formed judgment that Corbyn cannot possibly be PM.
I suspect they won't, however.
Mr. Rex, the list (Western only, contemplating adding Kleidion, Manzikert and the Fourth Crusade) is:
-100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
-90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
-80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]
-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene
If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama
Mr. Woolie, I know, hence the question. Will Labour be crushed and recover, or crushed and doomed?
Unless things turn around, of course.
.....
That does not seem very likely.
I said earlier I'd save my judgment until the Welsh poll came in as it will tell a story of where this GE is going. And it did in spades. Tories 10% ahead - in Wales! I'm calling a monster landslide now.
Takes a mess.. makes more of a mess.. leaves someone else to clear it up!
Can we please stop getting polls like this, I've got too much work on to laugh all day on PB.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/08/shouldnt-vote-jeremy-corbyn/
The only caveat is that it is becoming clear that Mrs. May probably did have to call this election- the Police seem to believe that there is a case to answer in at least 15 cases of electoral fraud, and reports will shortly be sent to the DPP. When?
Then there is Brexit: the ABs of the Waitrose crowd are now it seems very detached from the Tories, while the CDs may be currently swinging Tory quite stongly, so there is a highly unpredictable churn underway. Some surprising seats might be lost and gained.
For many campaigns (not 2010 or 2015, however) the Liberal/Lib Dem vote has grown during the campaign. The Lib Dems just topped 100,000 members and have raised over £1M in their first week, which is way above any previous campaign I have been involved in (going back to 1979). Labour, by contrast, could be heavily damaged by the campaign: equivocal on Brexit, the key issue of the day and with their underfunded campaign in a total mess.
Most of the observers here are basing their ideas on 2010 or 2015- it seems to me that something quite different is underway.
There are seven weeks, and there will clearly be many twists and turns in this campaign, but Labour seem to be in a huge amount of trouble, squeezed and inept, so this could end up as an epochal result and the end of Labour in anything like its current form. Our forecasts of the future are often prisoners of the past, but the omens currently look very ominous indeed for Labour. Yet the risks from the electoral fraud prosecutions are not negligible, so at the moment I am being cautious about most positions except that I am more bullish on the Lib Dems than the polls currently support: A buy at current spreads.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/24/corbyn-may-farron-sturgeon
Let everyone ponder whether it was an actual lie once she has a 100-seat majority in the bag.
Because then people wouldn't know what they're voting for. It could scare off the Corbynistas. Which leaves... ?
Speechless
Postal ballots should be arriving just about now.
Then again, he'd probably f'up the policy so much we'd need these installed outside every toilet:
https://phys.org/news/2017-03-recognition-flushes-china-toilet-paper.html
The decision to open the franchise by Ed Miliband and run the risk of infiltration by those not well disposed to the Party was matched only by the decision of Labour MPs to nominate Corbyn.
Had either one of those not happened and Yvette Cooper been Labour leader since 2015, I doubt there would be a GE now and while the Conservatives might be leading polls, they wouldn't be 20+ points ahead.
It's nothing to do with WWC or "identity politics" - it's wholly politically self-inflicted wounds. It doesn't mean the "end" of Labour either - the Party will re-group much as the Conservatives did after the 1997 and 2001 routs.
A fresh leader and a fresh message might resonate strongly by 2019-20.
The Tories would be stupid not to be spreading those facts.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856532252024602624
That'll be quite a lot of Lab losses. They were 20% clear last time and are defending 576 seats.
Labour still faces the problem of squaring support from the working class with support from liberal metropolitan types.
And it's lost seats (assuming it does so in the near future) at every election following 1997 (five in a row). Corbyn's a major problem, but not the only one.
As I said before, if the Lib Dems see what's in front of them, there's a small chance they could depose Labour as the major party of the left. Doubt it'll happen, though.
CON: 40% (+12)
LAB: 30% (-3)
PC: 13% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 6% (-7)
(via YouGov)
It can't get much worse. They would know what they were voting for – Classic Anti Corbyn Labour.
Still, I suppose someone else will get the story out.
I don't buy this bullsh*t that Corbyn and the hard left need to take ownership of this defeat and Labour can re-group from there. He needs to go now or the Labour party, progressive politics or even democracy itself is dead in this country.
Number of Welsh Lab MPs vs The number of Rugby Union World Cups Wales have won.
"Liberal democrat, since Theresa May's announcement on Tuesday, we've been joined by thousands of you rallying to action. Together:
We've held one amazing launch.
We've set up hundreds of events up and down the country.
We've recruited thousands of new members."
Presumably they think I am called Liberal democrat - I don't think many of us are joining them if anything the flow is in the other direction.
If the Conservatives are putting on votes in strongly Labour constituencies, where does that leave the Labour GOTV operation come polling day? Seems to me they'll be just as likely to be increasing the Conservative vote as their own.
Good afternoon/evening, everybody.
The 2015 manifesto was primarily the starting negotiation positions for the next round of coalition talks. Its also necessary to have a lot of manifesto commitments to deal with Lords objections.
Of course the next few years are going to see little else done other than dealing with Brexit fallout, so making lots of new policy commitments is a waste of time really.
Yet today's 'Labour' Party may yet bottom out in the 20's... *shakes head*... because of tribal loyalty. I hope to heaven that the decent tribal loyalists (plenty of those) see that crimesheet before they find themselves tainted by association.
I am happy for the old old Labour giants that they are not alive to witness this terrible disgrace, and all they worked for destroyed by evil people whom they would have thrown out of the Party without a qualm.
Labour does not deserve to survive. Seppuku now.
Titter ....
Merkelmay appears to be bizarrely popular with many traditional non-tory voters. Perhaps after blair and Cameron, having a boring less flash leader is what they want. Not sure a better politician would poll better.The question is will the sensible labour figuers have the strength to remove the far left from their party once and for all if events are as bad as they seem.
Given Corbyn will still be a Lab MP, it's hard to see that all of them are got rid of.
Presumably local election results which are not as bad for labour as the GE polls will be good for Corbyn's chances on being defenestrated mid-campaign at least?
So (at least a few) tories should vote labour in the locals....?
#SaveJez
After a gap of two years, the Sunil on Sunday's ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) for week ending 23rd April 2017!
Nine polls, simple average:
Con 45.67
Lab 25.78
LD 10.67
UKIP 8.44
Green 3.33
Tory Lead: 19.89%