politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2017 looks such a certainty that it could end up like GE2001
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IOS.SquareRoot said:
Cant remember the bozo who used to post on here Labour's ground game was so clever he couldn't tell us... He disappeared after GE 2015Scrapheap_as_was said:
Just wait for the superior ground game 'intell' on hereRobD said:
KLAXON!Scrapheap_as_was said:
The long anticipated excitedly awaited.... Scottish Tory Surge....Scott_P said:The SNP are going to abstain today apparently.
What are they frightened of?
Edit:.. I approve of your avatar change!!
I do t get it, I said labour would win too.0 -
Campaigning suits Corbyn. He will be out on the stump. There will be well attended rallies. He will make headlines. He will be more interesting than May and has nothing to lose. He might surprise.0
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People just need a bit more time to realise the merits of true socialism.foxinsoxuk said:
He may even try to hang on afterwards, successfully.Roger said:
I just can't see how he can stay. He'll be like a bad smell wherever he goes. The incontinent great auntfoxinsoxuk said:
Too late to get rid now.Roger said:If you were an MP in a reasonably safe Labour seat and because of the leadership of Corbyn you were in danger of losing it you'd be furious.
I can't see huge numbers of Labour MPs who come into that category keeping quiet for the next six weeks. I think there will be a massive amount of pressure on Corbyn to get out. I think the warfare will be open and bloody and if it isn't it should be..0 -
What's the spread for the number of tantrums he has in interviews?Jonathan said:Campaigning suits Corbyn. He will be out on the stump. There will be well attended rallies. He will make headlines. He will be more interesting than May and has nothing to lose. He might surprise.
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I will be delighted if John Nicolson loses his seat.kle4 said:
Given they did better than they could have dreamed last time, and the worst prediction I've seen for them is high 40s with most predicting in the 50s, I dont think they'll be weeping into their porridge if they lose a few.felix said:
Yes - they clearly don't expect to hold all their seatsScott_P said:The SNP are going to abstain today apparently.
What are they frightened of?0 -
I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.0 -
I must confess if I were looking for a potential major surprise in that region I would wonder if Bradshaw might be vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats in Exeter. Coming from fifth to first would be hard, but perhaps not impossible given the seat and its electorate.foxinsoxuk said:
The LD advantage of the LDs in SW and SE is that with only a handful of exceptions Labour is not in the game, so they can hoover up anti-Tory votes, not all of them Brexit related.dr_spyn said:I do have doubts about strength of LDs in SW, given the Referendum results in seats in the region, it wasn't a hotbed of support for Remain. It is possible that LDs might recover in Bath or Cheltenham. The notion that Tory MPs not have an incumbency effect strikes me as naive.
He will almost certainly finish behind the Conservatives anyway, which would be a sad end to a remarkable career defying political gravity.0 -
Morning comrades.
A lot of people thought the referendum would be low turnout "because nobody cares about Europe" and we know what happened.
I actually think the turnout for the general election will be the highest since 1992. Passions with both REMAIN and LEAVE are still running high and people will turnout either for their final chance to stop Brexit or secure Brexit.0 -
St Hodges hasn't taken long to nail his voting colours to the mast...
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/854593365630955520
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/854592850297843712
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The ground the LibDems are trying to fight on is Remain+Soft Leave v Hard Leave. Whether they can pull this off is another matter, but there is no doubt that the local by-election successes aren't just coming from Remain areas. Just translating the Leave vote into GE votes is too simplistic.kle4 said:
The SW was leave and a lot of former LD seats there are now large Tory majorities, but the things can be strange - I could see 4 or 5 turn back.dr_spyn said:I do have doubts about strength of LDs in SW, given the Referendum results in seats in the region, it wasn't a hotbed of support for Remain. It is possible that LDs might recover in Bath or Cheltenham. The notion that Tory MPs not have an incumbency effect strikes me as naive.
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When the robots erase human nature, we shall be ready.TOPPING said:
People just need a bit more time to realise the merits of true socialism.foxinsoxuk said:
He may even try to hang on afterwards, successfully.Roger said:
I just can't see how he can stay. He'll be like a bad smell wherever he goes. The incontinent great auntfoxinsoxuk said:
Too late to get rid now.Roger said:If you were an MP in a reasonably safe Labour seat and because of the leadership of Corbyn you were in danger of losing it you'd be furious.
I can't see huge numbers of Labour MPs who come into that category keeping quiet for the next six weeks. I think there will be a massive amount of pressure on Corbyn to get out. I think the warfare will be open and bloody and if it isn't it should be..
I've always been amused by the analogy of communism and its offshoots as like a drug - a bit of it is exciting, perhaps even invigorating and healthy, but you need to cut it, one whiff of the pure stuff and things go to hell.
Slightly unfair, perhaps. After all, were all a little socialist now,0 -
The short answer is the return of anti-Tory tactical voting, it was this unwinding that was behind the 2015 bloodbath.MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.
In retrospect many of those voters may well start to see the coalition differently.0 -
Your 4.5 should be 9.0MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.0 -
Who will OGH be vote swapping with this time?foxinsoxuk said:
The short answer is the return of anti-Tory tactical voting, it was this unwinding that was behind the 2015 bloodbath.MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.
In retrospect many of those voters may well start to see the coalition differently.0 -
One thing is clear, the LDs need to shut up about the coalition.foxinsoxuk said:
The short answer is the return of anti-Tory tactical voting, it was this unwinding that was behind the 2015 bloodbath.MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.
In retrospect many of those voters may well start to see the coalition differently.0 -
I think it's a worth point. I thought in the locals if the polls are right how can the lds make sweeping g gains from them, but it is at least easier in locals, and there's some party ructions in some areas to help. I'd still say some bregret and surprise at the LD wipeout will see a few areas turn orange again In The SW, but not as many as hoped.MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.0 -
Before the referendum I said that plenty of Labour voters would take the opportunity to give the posh boys a kicking and they did, these same people don't have the same resentment towards TM. They dislike Corbyn and plenty won't have a UKIP candidate to vote for, so they'll either vote Lib Dem or abstain.
The Tories are highly motivated, they know this is their best chance ever of finishing Labour for good. I can't see anything but an enormous majority with lots of surprise seconds for the Libs.
UKIP won't get 1 million votes, simply not enough candidates.0 -
He's wrong - sales of popcorn and Chavez biographies would improve, both very necessary too.Scrapheap_as_was said:St Hodges hasn't taken long to nail his voting colours to the mast...
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/854593365630955520
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I tend to agree and would add that, after decades of "they are all the same" the whingers have got their wish and have a VERY clear contrast between the major parties.GIN1138 said:
I actually think the turnout for the general election will be the highest since 1992. Passions with both REMAIN and LEAVE are still running high and people will turnout either for their final chance to stop Brexit or secure Brexit.
Personally, I'd prefer less clear blue water, but there we are... I'm metropolitan elite / out-of-touch establishment / so-called expert, so can safely be ignored!0 -
you can imagine the question just changing a little.. the polls say you'll lose, will you resign if Labour lose.. Eventually he will lose his cool spectacularly.Scrapheap_as_was said:
What's the spread for the number of tantrums he has in interviews?Jonathan said:Campaigning suits Corbyn. He will be out on the stump. There will be well attended rallies. He will make headlines. He will be more interesting than May and has nothing to lose. He might surprise.
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In Torbay, for example, the Labour vote had already been hoovered up. In 2005 it was 14.7% - in 2010, it was plundered to 6.6% then back up to 8.7% in 2015. I doubt Labour will poll lower than 5% in June. There really isn't much for the LibDems to plunder.foxinsoxuk said:
The LD advantage of the LDs in SW and SE is that with only a handful of exceptions Labour is not in the game, so they can hoover up anti-Tory votes, not all of them Brexit related.dr_spyn said:I do have doubts about strength of LDs in SW, given the Referendum results in seats in the region, it wasn't a hotbed of support for Remain. It is possible that LDs might recover in Bath or Cheltenham. The notion that Tory MPs not have an incumbency effect strikes me as naive.
The other aspect is that there is only a couple of years since having LD MPs, so not a distant memory.
However between 2010 and 2015 the UKIP vote rose from 5.3% to 13.6%. That is a lot of votes for us Tories to target. And we know where they live....0 -
Ah, Exeter. Exclude Bristol and it's a lonely island in a sea of SW blue. I've always thought he must do a good job down there. Wasn't he persuaded to stay on last time, will he stand again?ydoethur said:
I must confess if I were looking for a potential major surprise in that region I would wonder if Bradshaw might be vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats in Exeter. Coming from fifth to first would be hard, but perhaps not impossible given the seat and its electorate.foxinsoxuk said:
The LD advantage of the LDs in SW and SE is that with only a handful of exceptions Labour is not in the game, so they can hoover up anti-Tory votes, not all of them Brexit related.dr_spyn said:I do have doubts about strength of LDs in SW, given the Referendum results in seats in the region, it wasn't a hotbed of support for Remain. It is possible that LDs might recover in Bath or Cheltenham. The notion that Tory MPs not have an incumbency effect strikes me as naive.
He will almost certainly finish behind the Conservatives anyway, which would be a sad end to a remarkable career defying political gravity.
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A genuine question, do you regularly canvass ? The anti Tory tactical voting is now the obsession of a very tiny minority. There is no hostility to Tories on the doorstep people seem to genuinely like Theresa May.foxinsoxuk said:
The short answer is the return of anti-Tory tactical voting, it was this unwinding that was behind the 2015 bloodbath.MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.
In retrospect many of those voters may well start to see the coalition differently.
Regularly canvassing a tight Tory held marginal...0 -
Farron has a clean pair of hands over the coalition. He preferred to stay on the backbenches.Jonathan said:
One thing is clear, the LDs need to shut up about the coalition.foxinsoxuk said:
The short answer is the return of anti-Tory tactical voting, it was this unwinding that was behind the 2015 bloodbath.MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.
In retrospect many of those voters may well start to see the coalition differently.
The coalition seems ancient history now. It has been a busy couple of years politically.0 -
Won't you be moving into more challenging territory, given the polling?notme said:
A genuine question, do you regularly canvass ? The anti Tory tactical voting is now the obsession of a very tiny minority. There is no hostility to Tories on the doorstep people seem to genuinely like Theresa May.foxinsoxuk said:
The short answer is the return of anti-Tory tactical voting, it was this unwinding that was behind the 2015 bloodbath.MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.
In retrospect many of those voters may well start to see the coalition differently.
Regularly canvassing a tight Tory held marginal...0 -
I was talking swing....IanB2 said:
Your 4.5 should be 9.0MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.0 -
If it ever comes up, all they need to say is that they went into coalition as the only way to stop the Conservatives having total power. And are fighting the 2017 GE for the same reason. End of.foxinsoxuk said:
Farron has a clean pair of hands over the coalition. He preferred to stay on the backbenches.Jonathan said:
One thing is clear, the LDs need to shut up about the coalition.foxinsoxuk said:
The short answer is the return of anti-Tory tactical voting, it was this unwinding that was behind the 2015 bloodbath.MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.
In retrospect many of those voters may well start to see the coalition differently.
The coalition seems ancient history now. It has been a busy couple of years politically.0 -
LD opponents might bring it up and challenge them as sharing responsibility for this mess.foxinsoxuk said:
Farron has a clean pair of hands over the coalition. He preferred to stay on the backbenches.Jonathan said:
One thing is clear, the LDs need to shut up about the coalition.foxinsoxuk said:
The short answer is the return of anti-Tory tactical voting, it was this unwinding that was behind the 2015 bloodbath.MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.
In retrospect many of those voters may well start to see the coalition differently.
The coalition seems ancient history now. It has been a busy couple of years politically.0 -
Sorry you are right, too early, time for porridge,MarqueeMark said:
I was talking swing....IanB2 said:
Your 4.5 should be 9.0MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.0 -
Don’t know if this has been posted upthread, but I wonder what difference the GE campaign will make to the locals. Increase the vote, perhaps.0
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I have done a bit of canvassing and leafletting, but while hopes are reasonably high for some local seat gains, the only viable parliamentary seat to target locally is Bosworth.notme said:
A genuine question, do you regularly canvass ? The anti Tory tactical voting is now the obsession of a very tiny minority. There is no hostility to Tories on the doorstep people seem to genuinely like Theresa May.foxinsoxuk said:
The short answer is the return of anti-Tory tactical voting, it was this unwinding that was behind the 2015 bloodbath.MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.
In retrospect many of those voters may well start to see the coalition differently.
Regularly canvassing a tight Tory held marginal...0 -
There's no sign I can find he isn't, although I'm willing to be corrected.kle4 said:
Ah, Exeter. Exclude Bristol and it's a lonely island in a sea of SW blue. I've always thought he must do a good job down there. Wasn't he persuaded to stay on last time, will he stand again?ydoethur said:
I must confess if I were looking for a potential major surprise in that region I would wonder if Bradshaw might be vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats in Exeter. Coming from fifth to first would be hard, but perhaps not impossible given the seat and its electorate.foxinsoxuk said:
The LD advantage of the LDs in SW and SE is that with only a handful of exceptions Labour is not in the game, so they can hoover up anti-Tory votes, not all of them Brexit related.dr_spyn said:I do have doubts about strength of LDs in SW, given the Referendum results in seats in the region, it wasn't a hotbed of support for Remain. It is possible that LDs might recover in Bath or Cheltenham. The notion that Tory MPs not have an incumbency effect strikes me as naive.
He will almost certainly finish behind the Conservatives anyway, which would be a sad end to a remarkable career defying political gravity.
He has a huge personal vote according to my friends there - Labour would probably have lost the seat years ago without him. Without him this time they might come fifth.
But that inversion of gravity surely can't last for ever.0 -
Good question. Some will be confused.OldKingCole said:Don’t know if this has been posted upthread, but I wonder what difference the GE campaign will make to the locals. Increase the vote, perhaps.
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He is a surprisingly boring speaker, specialising in the rambling history of obscure trade unionist causes.Jonathan said:Campaigning suits Corbyn. He will be out on the stump. There will be well attended rallies. He will make headlines. He will be more interesting than May and has nothing to lose. He might surprise.
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It's not about hostility to the Tories. In 2015, Greens and Labour were less prepared to hold their noses and vote Lib Dem, as they were in Coalition with the blues.notme said:
A genuine question, do you regularly canvass ? The anti Tory tactical voting is now the obsession of a very tiny minority. There is no hostility to Tories on the doorstep people seem to genuinely like Theresa May.foxinsoxuk said:
The short answer is the return of anti-Tory tactical voting, it was this unwinding that was behind the 2015 bloodbath.MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.
In retrospect many of those voters may well start to see the coalition differently.
Regularly canvassing a tight Tory held marginal...
I do knock on doors, and a fairly common line is basically, "I was very angry about tuition fees [or other issue] in 2015 and just couldn't vote tactically for that reason... but I've got new bugbears today and will probably, slightly reluctantly, do it."
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Sir Norfolk, rest assured, you are not alone in wishing Labour's leader weren't so far left.0
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My guess is that local issues will be even more swamped by national politics than usual. Poor councillors, particularly the good hard-working ones.OldKingCole said:Don’t know if this has been posted upthread, but I wonder what difference the GE campaign will make to the locals. Increase the vote, perhaps.
Nevertheless the more interesting question is the other way around. I don't think we have ever had a set of local elections during an actual GE campaign.0 -
https://www.twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/854469444403437568
That seems to settle it.0 -
But will it be as strong as usual for new MPs only 2 years into their terms?dr_spyn said:I do have doubts about strength of LDs in SW, given the Referendum results in seats in the region, it wasn't a hotbed of support for Remain. It is possible that LDs might recover in Bath or Cheltenham. The notion that Tory MPs not have an incumbency effect strikes me as naive.
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Bercow standing again?0
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Labour about to reap what they have sowed.
LDs about to recover somewhat.
Tories about to tidy up.
All is well.0 -
IanB2 said
'1983 is the closest parallel with the current situation and, given the collapse in Labour support, must be favourite for your second question. The gap between Tory and Labour was just short of 15%. (42% to 28%, to the nearest whole number).'
Like so many people you are using UK figures there - rather than the GB figures given by pollsters.
On a GB basis the 1983 result was - Con 43.5% Lab 28.3% - Tory lead of 15.2%.
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Hard Brexit it is!ydoethur said:https://www.twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/854469444403437568
That seems to settle it.0 -
Her Pollyness is displeased:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/19/general-election-labour-annihilation-jeremy-corbyn?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
Call me Mr Suspicious, but I think the first paragraph is meant to convey a certain lack of approbation for Jeremy Corbyn.
If so he has managed something sensational, epochal, impossible - he's made me agree with Her Pollyness.0 -
He is quite good at hustings, I can see why Theresa is chickening out of debates.dr_spyn said:
He is a surprisingly boring speaker, specialising in the rambling history of obscure trade unionist causes.Jonathan said:Campaigning suits Corbyn. He will be out on the stump. There will be well attended rallies. He will make headlines. He will be more interesting than May and has nothing to lose. He might surprise.
I hope that they happen with or without her.0 -
Barely more than a handful of seats changed hands in 2001 and Blair's centrist Labour simply maintained its massive majority over Hague's right-wing Tories while in June there could be significant Tory gains from Labour. A closer analogy would be 1983 where Thatcher went from a majority of under 50 to one of closer to 150 and in that election the Liberals/SDP also made the biggest gains of the opposition parties while the left-wing Foot led Labour to a heavy defeat on a manifesto not too dissimilar to the one the hard left Corbyn will run on, could it be, to misquote the late Sir Gerald Kaufman 'the longest suicide note in history 2?'0
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Even during the coalition years, anti-Tory tactical voting never went away altogether, just became a lot more difficult for many voters to do. But I had conversations in various places across the country during the coalition with voters who were firmly voting LibDem "to beat the Tory", just as before.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
It's not about hostility to the Tories. In 2015, Greens and Labour were less prepared to hold their noses and vote Lib Dem, as they were in Coalition with the blues.notme said:
A genuine question, do you regularly canvass ? The anti Tory tactical voting is now the obsession of a very tiny minority. There is no hostility to Tories on the doorstep people seem to genuinely like Theresa May.foxinsoxuk said:
The short answer is the return of anti-Tory tactical voting, it was this unwinding that was behind the 2015 bloodbath.MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.
In retrospect many of those voters may well start to see the coalition differently.
Regularly canvassing a tight Tory held marginal...
I do knock on doors, and a fairly common line is basically, "I was very angry about tuition fees [or other issue] in 2015 and just couldn't vote tactically for that reason... but I've got new bugbears today and will probably, slightly reluctantly, do it."
The big change this time will be far fewer LibDem voters willing to back the local Labour candidate for the same reasons - both because of Labour's well rehearsed negatives and because the LDs have an unusually unique and clear appeal on Brexit - and it's been a long time since they started any GE like that. This will leave some Labour MPs in marginal seats particularly vulnerable - another reason why UNS won't work and why Labour seat losses could be greater than modelling suggests.0 -
It was also Tory-held until October 1974.foxinsoxuk said:
Ashworth also has good Union support, and is someone who despite his Brownite background is willing to sit in the shadow cabinet.ydoethur said:Reposted from previous thread:
So, anyway, on to more important matters: the next Labour leader.
First of all, it has to be someone with a rock-safe seat. That lets out the egregious Cat Smith, also Clive Lewis and despite earlier posts very probably Jess Philips too (heck, even Yvette Cooper doesn't look totally safe).
It has to be someone who can pass for sane. That lets out Abbott, Macdonnell, Burgon, Rayner, Long-Bailey and Thornberry.
It has to be someone in Parliament. That lets out Burnham and Khan.
It has to be someone who can't be blamed for the defeat. That lets out Trickett.
It has to be someone acceptable to the left. That lets out almost every other plausible candidate including Benn, Watson and Creasy.
Two obvious front runners are left. Starmer is favourite with the bookies. However, there is rumoured to be some bad stuff about his disastrous time as DPP which somebody as ruthless as May will undoubtedly use. Moreover as a posh London lawyer he's completely out of touch with the voters Labour need to reach.
Which leaves the other one. Jon Ashworth meets all the criteria above. Also, if the Labour campaign is to be on the NHS - and it has to be because that's the one topic Labour agrees on and has a realistic angle of attack on - he will get a lot of airtime. He is also, along with Starmer, a rare example of an effective shadow Minister. Moreover, he doesn't carry much baggage.
At the moment he's 80/1. Those odds seem insane to me. 3/1 would be more like it. DYOR but I'd say he's value.
I think Leicester South is pretty safe, but it did go Tory in 1983.0 -
We came close in 1983 and 1987, since everyone knew a general election was imminent, even if it had not been called.IanB2 said:
My guess is that local issues will be even more swamped by national politics than usual. Poor councillors, particularly the good hard-working ones.OldKingCole said:Don’t know if this has been posted upthread, but I wonder what difference the GE campaign will make to the locals. Increase the vote, perhaps.
Nevertheless the more interesting question is the other way around. I don't think we have ever had a set of local elections during an actual GE campaign.0 -
May really is so very, very lucky to be up against Corbyn.0
-
In 1963 Perth and Kinross was the third safest Tory seat in the land. In 1906 Sheffield, Liverpool and Birmingham were strongly pro-Unionist as the rest of the country fell to the Liberals. In 1997 Labour had never won Edgbaston.justin124 said:
It was also Tory-held until October 1974.foxinsoxuk said:
Ashworth also has good Union support, and is someone who despite his Brownite background is willing to sit in the shadow cabinet.ydoethur said:Reposted from previous thread:
So, anyway, on to more important matters: the next Labour leader.
First of all, it has to be someone with a rock-safe seat. That lets out the egregious Cat Smith, also Clive Lewis and despite earlier posts very probably Jess Philips too (heck, even Yvette Cooper doesn't look totally safe).
It has to be someone who can pass for sane. That lets out Abbott, Macdonnell, Burgon, Rayner, Long-Bailey and Thornberry.
It has to be someone in Parliament. That lets out Burnham and Khan.
It has to be someone who can't be blamed for the defeat. That lets out Trickett.
It has to be someone acceptable to the left. That lets out almost every other plausible candidate including Benn, Watson and Creasy.
Two obvious front runners are left. Starmer is favourite with the bookies. However, there is rumoured to be some bad stuff about his disastrous time as DPP which somebody as ruthless as May will undoubtedly use. Moreover as a posh London lawyer he's completely out of touch with the voters Labour need to reach.
Which leaves the other one. Jon Ashworth meets all the criteria above. Also, if the Labour campaign is to be on the NHS - and it has to be because that's the one topic Labour agrees on and has a realistic angle of attack on - he will get a lot of airtime. He is also, along with Starmer, a rare example of an effective shadow Minister. Moreover, he doesn't carry much baggage.
At the moment he's 80/1. Those odds seem insane to me. 3/1 would be more like it. DYOR but I'd say he's value.
I think Leicester South is pretty safe, but it did go Tory in 1983.
Things can change.0 -
Talking of elections....
He said at least five parties including the Socialist Forces Front (FFS) had not been showing female candidates' faces on posters.
Parties in Bordj Bou Arreridj Province had been showing hijabs surrounding blank spaces alongside photos of male candidates.
Algeria parties ordered to show female faces on posters
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-396365480 -
"Wrong, wrong and wrong again. Was ever there a more crassly inept politician than Jeremy Corbyn, whose every impulse is to make the wrong call on everything? It’s not excitingly flamboyant red radicalism that has done for Labour, but his sluggish incompetence at the absolute basics of leadership."ydoethur said:Her Pollyness is displeased:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/19/general-election-labour-annihilation-jeremy-corbyn?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
Call me Mr Suspicious, but I think the first paragraph is meant to convey a certain lack of approbation for Jeremy Corbyn.
If so he has managed something sensational, epochal, impossible - he's made me agree with Her Pollyness.
And after all that, Polly will stick a peg on her nose and still vote for the donkey...0 -
More likely Labour will run on a relatively moderate manifesto but led by people widely seen as very left wing. Arguably the worst of both worlds.HYUFD said:Barely more than a handful of seats changed hands in 2001 and Blair's centrist Labour simply maintained its massive majority over Hague's right-wing Tories while in June there could be significant Tory gains from Labour. A closer analogy would be 1983 where Thatcher went from a majority of under 50 to one of closer to 150 and in that election the Liberals/SDP also made the biggest gains of the opposition parties while the left-wing Foot led Labour to a heavy defeat on a manifesto not too dissimilar to the one the hard left Corbyn will run on, could it be, to misquote the late Sir Gerald Kaufman 'the longest suicide note in history 2?'
0 -
What's the difference between a donkey and an ass?SimonStClare said:
"Wrong, wrong and wrong again. Was ever there a more crassly inept politician than Jeremy Corbyn, whose every impulse is to make the wrong call on everything? It’s not excitingly flamboyant red radicalism that has done for Labour, but his sluggish incompetence at the absolute basics of leadership."ydoethur said:Her Pollyness is displeased:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/19/general-election-labour-annihilation-jeremy-corbyn?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
Call me Mr Suspicious, but I think the first paragraph is meant to convey a certain lack of approbation for Jeremy Corbyn.
If so he has managed something sensational, epochal, impossible - he's made me agree with Her Pollyness.
And after all that, Polly will stick a peg on her nose and still vote for the donkey...
One is the leader of the Labour Party the other is a Guardian columnist!0 -
Remainers maybe I doubt Scots will be that motivated for another Westminster election and if anything unionists could be motivated to gain a few seats from the SNP with the Tories aiming to win in the borders and seats like Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine and the LDs to gain seats like Edinburgh West as they did in the 2016 Holyrood elections (Labour gained Edinburgh South then while losing seats elsewhere so Murray may hold on)SouthamObserver said:
The most motivated voters in the election will be die hard Remainers and the Scots.kle4 said:Probably will be boring. I'm expecting the tory lead to come in a bit, perhaps even to since figures, and people to get overexcited by a good showing by the lds in be locals, beer return to 12-13 point lead for the result. The complacency that will be inevitable and non corbynsas terrified labour will be annihilated returning o the fold will see the worst avoided, even as more casual voters stay home.
0 -
People said the same about Cameron and Milliband. You appear to think that once Corbyn has gone Labour will rise like a phoenix but they're finished for good, the leader is irrelevant. Don't you remember the calibre of contenders when Corbyn won? Absolutely dreadful.SouthamObserver said:May really is so very, very lucky to be up against Corbyn.
0 -
Will the new Tory MPs even be standing, given that they have been investigated by the police, and may well find themselves in court on polling day?not_on_fire said:
But will it be as strong as usual for new MPs only 2 years into their terms?dr_spyn said:I do have doubts about strength of LDs in SW, given the Referendum results in seats in the region, it wasn't a hotbed of support for Remain. It is possible that LDs might recover in Bath or Cheltenham. The notion that Tory MPs not have an incumbency effect strikes me as naive.
0 -
True. And yet as Robert Blake said of Disraeli, 'the measure of a political leader is the ability to exploit his [sic] luck.'SouthamObserver said:May really is so very, very lucky to be up against Corbyn.
That's what Theresa May will be judged on in seven weeks and the following five years.0 -
She was one of the people few LDs regretted chose to stay with the (non) continuing SDP.SimonStClare said:
"Wrong, wrong and wrong again. Was ever there a more crassly inept politician than Jeremy Corbyn, whose every impulse is to make the wrong call on everything? It’s not excitingly flamboyant red radicalism that has done for Labour, but his sluggish incompetence at the absolute basics of leadership."ydoethur said:Her Pollyness is displeased:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/19/general-election-labour-annihilation-jeremy-corbyn?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
Call me Mr Suspicious, but I think the first paragraph is meant to convey a certain lack of approbation for Jeremy Corbyn.
If so he has managed something sensational, epochal, impossible - he's made me agree with Her Pollyness.
And after all that, Polly will stick a peg on her nose and still vote for the donkey...0 -
Not really. On the basis of the 1.05% Con to Lab swing in England Labour would have denied the Tories an overall majority.foxinsoxuk said:
Despite its faults UNS did prove pretty reliable in England and Wales last time.AlastairMeeks said:
Electoral Calculus is going to be a particularly weak tool this time round, if the polls are anything like correct.foxinsoxuk said:
Playing on Electoral Calculus it is hard to get Labour below 150 seats or to lose Leicester Southydoethur said:
The lack of a clear challenger with a strong third to squeeze is what makes me think it's probably safe this time, whereas I'm not so sure about Normanton.foxinsoxuk said:
Ashworth also has good Union support, and is someone who despite his Brownite background is willing to sit in the shadow cabinet.ydoethur said:Jon Ashworth meets all the criteria above. Also, if the Labour campaign is to be on the NHS - and it has to be because that's the one topic Labour agrees on and has a realistic angle of attack on - he will get a lot of airtime. He is also, along with Starmer, a rare example of an effective shadow Minister. Moreover, he doesn't carry much baggage.
At the moment he's 80/1. Those odds seem insane to me. 3/1 would be more like it. DYOR but I'd say he's value.
I think Leicester South is pretty safe, but it did go Tory in 1983.0 -
They should. She has little to gain I suppose, and the potential to slip up. An opposition only debate will be dominated by calling her out, of course, but they end to differentiate so will attack each other too, so I guess she figures any loss from not being there will be offset.foxinsoxuk said:
He is quite good at hustings, I can see why Theresa is chickening out of debates.dr_spyn said:
He is a surprisingly boring speaker, specialising in the rambling history of obscure trade unionist causes.Jonathan said:Campaigning suits Corbyn. He will be out on the stump. There will be well attended rallies. He will make headlines. He will be more interesting than May and has nothing to lose. He might surprise.
I hope that they happen with or without her.
It won't be about the principle, we know her antennae are firmly political.0 -
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May sounds like she wants to have an election because she doesn't like having any opposition. #today
How any Labour MP can hear that and not vote against the PM today is beyond me0 -
Corbyn will talk to lots of people who agree with him and will say nothing interesting. May will avoid talking to anyone. When she is forced to she will say nothing. Farron will skip around.Jonathan said:Campaigning suits Corbyn. He will be out on the stump. There will be well attended rallies. He will make headlines. He will be more interesting than May and has nothing to lose. He might surprise.
0 -
Wouldn't you want to just get it done and get shot of Corbyn, if you were a sensible Labour MP?Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May sounds like she wants to have an election because she doesn't like having any opposition. #today
How any Labour MP can hear that and not vote against the PM today is beyond me
0 -
She will need a lot more than luck after 9th June. She will need real ability. That is the big problem. But what she will have is time.ydoethur said:
True. And yet as Robert Blake said of Disraeli, 'the measure of a political leader is the ability to exploit his [sic] luck.'SouthamObserver said:May really is so very, very lucky to be up against Corbyn.
That's what Theresa May will be judged on in seven weeks and the following five years.
0 -
Chance to cut the cancer of corbynism out of the party. IMO it could be a very good thing for labour and the country, before it is too late for the labour party.Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May sounds like she wants to have an election because she doesn't like having any opposition. #today
How any Labour MP can hear that and not vote against the PM today is beyond me0 -
True, although I do think there is a big difference between speculation about an election - which always plagued the fourth year prior to the FTPA - and actual ongoing GE campaigning. Also, back then, the expense rules effectively prevented anyone declaring themselves a GE candidate or spending money specifically campaigning for a GE until it had actually been called. The current Long/Short campaign spending periods mean that in many seats the GE campaigns start today. The locals will effectively be the heats.Sean_F said:
We came close in 1983 and 1987, since everyone knew a general election was imminent, even if it had not been called.IanB2 said:
My guess is that local issues will be even more swamped by national politics than usual. Poor councillors, particularly the good hard-working ones.OldKingCole said:Don’t know if this has been posted upthread, but I wonder what difference the GE campaign will make to the locals. Increase the vote, perhaps.
Nevertheless the more interesting question is the other way around. I don't think we have ever had a set of local elections during an actual GE campaign.0 -
No, I think Labour has a long, hard road back. However, I do think there are plenty of Labour MPs of the calibre of May and many more of the calibre of most of her cabinet. The problem is that the vast majority are on the backbenches and many of those will soon be out of a job.freetochoose said:
People said the same about Cameron and Milliband. You appear to think that once Corbyn has gone Labour will rise like a phoenix but they're finished for good, the leader is irrelevant. Don't you remember the calibre of contenders when Corbyn won? Absolutely dreadful.SouthamObserver said:May really is so very, very lucky to be up against Corbyn.
0 -
Fenster said:
Wouldn't you want to just get it done and get shot of Corbyn, if you were a sensible Labour MP?
That is going to happen anyway. The difference is meekly acquiescing to TMay's wishes, or forcing her to No Confidence her own Government.FrancisUrquhart said:Chance to cut the cancer of corbynism out of the party. IMO it could be a very good thing for labour and the country, before it is too late for the labour party.
Which would look better on a Labour campiagn leaflet?
It's baffling.0 -
So am I - particularly as the SNP are going to abstain. 150 Labour MPs need to abstain to block it.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Still surprised Labour's apparent position is to support this.0 -
Not sure what you mean by "calibre", I suspect it means you agree with them. If they're voted out it will be down to lack of local support which suggests they're not very good at the job.SouthamObserver said:
No, I think Labour has a long, hard road back. However, I do think there are plenty of Labour MPs of the calibre of May and many more of the calibre of most of her cabinet. The problem is that the vast majority are on the backbenches and many of those will soon be out of a job.freetochoose said:
People said the same about Cameron and Milliband. You appear to think that once Corbyn has gone Labour will rise like a phoenix but they're finished for good, the leader is irrelevant. Don't you remember the calibre of contenders when Corbyn won? Absolutely dreadful.SouthamObserver said:May really is so very, very lucky to be up against Corbyn.
0 -
It isn't nailed on. Another 3 years, Corbyn would still lose, but the likes of mcmao and maomentum could easily shift things in the party to ensure the hard left nutters are still in charge post 2020.Scott_P said:Fenster said:Wouldn't you want to just get it done and get shot of Corbyn, if you were a sensible Labour MP?
That is going to happen anyway. The difference is meekly acquiescing to TMay's wishes, or forcing her to No Confidence her own Government.FrancisUrquhart said:Chance to cut the cancer of corbynism out of the party. IMO it could be a very good thing for labour and the country, before it is too late for the labour party.
Which would look better on a Labour campiagn leaflet?
It's baffling.
Also it's another 3 years of corbyn trashing the labour brand.0 -
Yup, the SNP had now inherited the lazy voter from SLab and many could be filled by the current sea of Yellow into thinking it is a solid sea of Yellow. Plenty of seats are in striking range.HYUFD said:
Remainers maybe I doubt Scots will be that motivated for another Westminster election and if anything unionists could be motivated to gain a few seats from the SNP with the Tories aiming to win in the borders and seats like Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine and the LDs to gain seats like Edinburgh West as they did in the 2016 Holyrood elections (Labour gained Edinburgh South then while losing seats elsewhere so Murray may hold on)SouthamObserver said:
The most motivated voters in the election will be die hard Remainers and the Scots.kle4 said:Probably will be boring. I'm expecting the tory lead to come in a bit, perhaps even to since figures, and people to get overexcited by a good showing by the lds in be locals, beer return to 12-13 point lead for the result. The complacency that will be inevitable and non corbynsas terrified labour will be annihilated returning o the fold will see the worst avoided, even as more casual voters stay home.
I am looking at the top 10 (combined) LD and Tory target seats on the constituency market when it goes lives as I think SNP minus 10 seats is very possible.0 -
We will seeIanB2 said:
More likely Labour will run on a relatively moderate manifesto but led by people widely seen as very left wing. Arguably the worst of both worlds.HYUFD said:Barely more than a handful of seats changed hands in 2001 and Blair's centrist Labour simply maintained its massive majority over Hague's right-wing Tories while in June there could be significant Tory gains from Labour. A closer analogy would be 1983 where Thatcher went from a majority of under 50 to one of closer to 150 and in that election the Liberals/SDP also made the biggest gains of the opposition parties while the left-wing Foot led Labour to a heavy defeat on a manifesto not too dissimilar to the one the hard left Corbyn will run on, could it be, to misquote the late Sir Gerald Kaufman 'the longest suicide note in history 2?'
0 -
Re the LibDem threat to the Conservatives.
Over Easter there were plenty of rumours about this secret Conservative poll that showed them at risk of losing several seats in the south-west to the LibDems.
Yet at the same time the Conservatives were very secretly arranging a general election.
WITHOUT ANY RUMOURS APPEARING
Is it not possible that this secret poll showing the LibDems doing well was just part of a Conservative diversion plan and that the LibDem threat is less than we were led to believe.0 -
What time is the vote?0
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I think people have whipped themselves up into a frenzy about Corbyn. Arguably he is a better campaigner than Milliband and Brown. He might surprise.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn will talk to lots of people who agree with him and will say nothing interesting. May will avoid talking to anyone. When she is forced to she will say nothing. Farron will skip around.Jonathan said:Campaigning suits Corbyn. He will be out on the stump. There will be well attended rallies. He will make headlines. He will be more interesting than May and has nothing to lose. He might surprise.
0 -
The SNP are going to vote for three more years of Tory government? Interesting.Scrapheap_as_was said:
The long anticipated excitedly awaited.... Scottish Tory Surge....Scott_P said:The SNP are going to abstain today apparently.
What are they frightened of?0 -
Not just Labour. The Conservatives were so scared of electing Andrea Leadsom they imposed May despite her solid record of achieving nothing at the Home Office, and the LibDems voted for Farron or is it Fallon over the other bloke no voter's heard of either.freetochoose said:
People said the same about Cameron and Milliband. You appear to think that once Corbyn has gone Labour will rise like a phoenix but they're finished for good, the leader is irrelevant. Don't you remember the calibre of contenders when Corbyn won? Absolutely dreadful.SouthamObserver said:May really is so very, very lucky to be up against Corbyn.
0 -
I'm chairing an unscheduled board meeting of Auchentennach Fine Pies (1745) Ltd later this morning and expect to make an important announcement at 11:15am on the steps of the castle.
0 -
So my hot take is the Labour absolutely have to get May to commit to brexit position. At that point they can then adopt a liberal Democrat like strategy and try to appear harder than that brexit position in hard brexit seats and softer than that position in remain seats.
If May goes for a soft brexit position or attempts to avoid spelling out a concrete brexit position then try and get UKIP riled.
It's a terrible strategy but I think it is the only one they have. Get May to spell out her brexit position0 -
Don’t rate conspiracy theories, this looks more like a very late decision by the PM imo.another_richard said:Re the LibDem threat to the Conservatives.
Over Easter there were plenty of rumours about this secret Conservative poll that showed them at risk of losing several seats in the south-west to the LibDems.
Yet at the same time the Conservatives were very secretly arranging a general election.
WITHOUT ANY RUMOURS APPEARING
Is it not possible that this secret poll showing the LibDems doing well was just part of a Conservative diversion plan and that the LibDem threat is less than we were led to believe.0 -
The class division that broke into British politics with the later industrial revolution and expansion of the franchise is fading away, and along with it the founding rationale for the Labour Party. Yes, there will always be a place in politics for a left wing party, but under FPTnP there is no more a guarantee of a "road back" to majority power for Labour than there was for the Liberals in the 1920s.SouthamObserver said:
No, I think Labour has a long, hard road back. However, I do think there are plenty of Labour MPs of the calibre of May and many more of the calibre of most of her cabinet. The problem is that the vast majority are on the backbenches and many of those will soon be out of a job.freetochoose said:
People said the same about Cameron and Milliband. You appear to think that once Corbyn has gone Labour will rise like a phoenix but they're finished for good, the leader is irrelevant. Don't you remember the calibre of contenders when Corbyn won? Absolutely dreadful.SouthamObserver said:May really is so very, very lucky to be up against Corbyn.
0 -
I agree. I really don't understand what is in this for Corbyn now. Is he really so deluded - or seriously autistic - that he does not believe the polls? Maybe he thinks he can mount a Bernie Sanders type campaign - but it seems pure masochism to want to lead the party to a huge defeat with all the personal humiliation that involves for him. I would now happily see him suffer a serious heart attack so as to incapacitate him and forcibly remove him for the benefit of others.SouthamObserver said:
Not a chance. He will be challenged and he will lose.foxinsoxuk said:
He may even try to hang on afterwards, successfully.Roger said:
I just can't see how he can stay. He'll be like a bad smell wherever he goes. The incontinent great auntfoxinsoxuk said:
Too late to get rid now.Roger said:If you were an MP in a reasonably safe Labour seat and because of the leadership of Corbyn you were in danger of losing it you'd be furious.
I can't see huge numbers of Labour MPs who come into that category keeping quiet for the next six weeks. I think there will be a massive amount of pressure on Corbyn to get out. I think the warfare will be open and bloody and if it isn't it should be..0 -
Last night we were assured it would be around 50.IanB2 said:
And I would see 20 as at the lower end of possible outcomes.kle4 said:
Getting near 20 with strong second places restored for 2022 would be a quick recovery.foxinsoxuk said:
I think the LDs will struggle to break past 20 seats, but will build up quite a lot of strong second places, for a springboard for 2022. This was never going to be a quick revival.ydoethur said:
Would be surprised if they did well in the SW although that depends on your definition of 'well' - they should pick up 2-3 seats. I think the are fighting Labour in the conurbations and the universities, and will do well in the latter. Gorton, Cardiff Central, Cambridge may be attainable. Thornbury is not.foxinsoxuk said:
The SLDs do not seem to do well in polls (Scottish subsample alert!). I think the LD revival will mostly be in the SE and SW of England and in University seats.ydoethur said:List of seats the Record regards as vulnerable although their reasoning isn't very developed:
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scotlands-key-battlegrounds-2017-general-10251668
Interestingly despite the ridicule I got for pointing out the SNP will be gunning for Carmichael, they also tip Orkney as vulnerable and for the same reason.0 -
90 min debate after PMQsMorris_Dancer said:What time is the vote?
0 -
After PMQs they’ll be a 90 minute discussion, followed by the vote at 2:30pm.Morris_Dancer said:What time is the vote?
0 -
He might surprise to the down side. The tories and the press know exactly which buttons to press to get this:Jonathan said:
I think people have whipped themselves up into a frenzy about Corbyn. Arguably he is a better campaigner than Milliband and Brown. He might surprise.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn will talk to lots of people who agree with him and will say nothing interesting. May will avoid talking to anyone. When she is forced to she will say nothing. Farron will skip around.Jonathan said:Campaigning suits Corbyn. He will be out on the stump. There will be well attended rallies. He will make headlines. He will be more interesting than May and has nothing to lose. He might surprise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ipYmMt1i840 -
It's not another 3 years.FrancisUrquhart said:It isn't nailed on. Another 3 years, Corbyn would still lose,
If Tezza wants an election now, she would have to call for a vote of no confidence in her own Government.
Labour could do that, and Tezza would then be the one denying the voters a say.
It's such a blindingly obvious thing to do.0 -
May's political calculation is the same as with Blair in 1997 - why provide any opportunity of damaging the prospect of a landslide. Politically wise of May but another shabby decision by the Prime Minister.foxinsoxuk said:
He is quite good at hustings, I can see why Theresa is chickening out of debates.dr_spyn said:
He is a surprisingly boring speaker, specialising in the rambling history of obscure trade unionist causes.Jonathan said:Campaigning suits Corbyn. He will be out on the stump. There will be well attended rallies. He will make headlines. He will be more interesting than May and has nothing to lose. He might surprise.
I hope that they happen with or without her.
The broadcasters should schedule three debates of two hours that will go ahead with or without the PM.0 -
A special roast baby pasty for the SouthWest market?JackW said:I'm chairing an unscheduled board meeting of Auchentennach Fine Pies (1745) Ltd later this morning and expect to make an important announcement at 11:15am on the steps of the castle.
A nation awaits on tenterhooks...0 -
Preaching to the converted is not the same as evangelism, however.Jonathan said:
I think people have whipped themselves up into a frenzy about Corbyn. Arguably he is a better campaigner than Milliband and Brown. He might surprise.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn will talk to lots of people who agree with him and will say nothing interesting. May will avoid talking to anyone. When she is forced to she will say nothing. Farron will skip around.Jonathan said:Campaigning suits Corbyn. He will be out on the stump. There will be well attended rallies. He will make headlines. He will be more interesting than May and has nothing to lose. He might surprise.
0 -
LD leadership probably think they can change votes with their campaign. There's some basis for this as LDs have outpolled opinion polls in recent by-elections. Nick Clegg's 2010 campaign saw a big movement to the LDs. If so, their polling numbers are low because they reflect the relatively small number of people that have thought about voting Lib Dem, rather than those will actually vote for them when presented with a choice on the ballot paper.MarqueeMark said:I still can't see why the LibDem focus on here for gains in June is in them powering back in the SW, rather than on those seats where they challenge Labour. Since the election, the LibDems are up maybe 3% - the Tories up maybe 8%. Nationally, the goalposts have moved the seats away from the LibDems by a swing of 2.5%. But the Labour Party is down maybe 6% - nationally, the goalposts have moved to the LibDems by 4.5%.
I know, I know, UNS is not UNS....but that does seem like some big special pleading required.0 -
Local elections did take place in the middle of the May 1955 election.Sean_F said:
We came close in 1983 and 1987, since everyone knew a general election was imminent, even if it had not been called.IanB2 said:
My guess is that local issues will be even more swamped by national politics than usual. Poor councillors, particularly the good hard-working ones.OldKingCole said:Don’t know if this has been posted upthread, but I wonder what difference the GE campaign will make to the locals. Increase the vote, perhaps.
Nevertheless the more interesting question is the other way around. I don't think we have ever had a set of local elections during an actual GE campaign.0 -
Mr. Jonathan, I suspect that's optimistic.
That said, I do think some estimates of Conservative success are overdone too. I'd guess a 50-80 seat majority likeliest.0 -
But it's not her, it's the electorate. It's up to them. They can choose to vote all 650 Lab candidates in, or none. Tezza is just giving them that opportunity.Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May sounds like she wants to have an election because she doesn't like having any opposition. #today
How any Labour MP can hear that and not vote against the PM today is beyond me
If you are a Lab MP, you *should* want the opportunity to throw out the incumbent govt seven days a week so this should be your dream come true.
Now of course, in actual fact, this will force many Lab MPs to make several necessarily prompt calculations: do I force Jezza out now, put someone halfway sensible in, and perhaps lose my seat but perhaps retain it on June 8th; or do I wait until post-June 8th, when I may probably not have a seat any more, for a better, cleaner, electable Labour Party.0 -
I agree. I do think the Lib Dems will win some seats back, but not sweepingly. It was convenient for the Tories to say the Lib Dems were a threat, and has some truth to it.another_richard said:
Is it not possible that this secret poll showing the LibDems doing well was just part of a Conservative diversion plan and that the LibDem threat is less than we were led to believe.
But the Conservatives will run a vigorous campaign based on, "getting the Lib Dems back may mean getting Corbyn in... and you don't want that". It will have some success in holding back the yellows, although is less credible if the narrative is about how badly Labour will lose by, rather than whether they will lose.
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2:30 seems about right, PMQs will run into Bercow time and then there's a Ten Minute Rule debate (which, as the name implies, lasts 20 minutes).SimonStClare said:
After PMQs they’ll be a 90 minute discussion, followed by the vote at 2:30pm.Morris_Dancer said:What time is the vote?
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That post doesn't make sense. Labour could do what, exactly?Scott_P said:
It's not another 3 years.FrancisUrquhart said:It isn't nailed on. Another 3 years, Corbyn would still lose,
If Tezza wants an election now, she would have to call for a vote of no confidence in her own Government.
Labour could do that, and Tezza would then be the one denying the voters a say.
It's such a blindingly obvious thing to do.0
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