politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The canvas data that proved to be spot on in Richmond suggests
Comments
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All the parties are pretty conservative when it comes to standing multiple members in wards. It is very rare for a party to put up enough candidates to take all the seats in a ward.BigRich said:
Interesting table, S Lab aren't putting up candidates in 3 councils! (But its the 3 island councils so normal I think?)calum said:Interestingly the Scottish LibDems aren't putting any candidates up in 8 out of the 32 councils - see page 2 of the PDF
http://www.electionsscotland.info/downloads/file/343/scottish_local_government_elections_2017_-_summary_of_candidates_nominated
I'm actually confused as there seem less candidates overall than I would have expected.
Even the SNP is only putting up 627 out of 1227, 51.1% and that's the highest by a long way.
Is it harder to get people nominated in Scotland that England and wales? or is the AV system encouraging parties to tactically stand down? or are all the parties struggling to find people to stand? or something else I have not noticed?0 -
I was seriously beginning to wonder whether anyone was going to take up this opportunity to make a tax free, risk free 20% profit, with just a few clicks on a computer keyboard .... and this is supposed to be a political betting site .... oh dearie me!TheWhiteRabbit said:
Good bet. Odds now cut to 4.3 (someone checked betfair!) but not before I got £100 on.peter_from_putney said:*** FREE MONEY ALERT *** FREE MONEY ALERT *** FREE MONEY ALERT ***
Back Fillon to win the French Presidential Election with Sportingbet at 5.50
Lay him to lose the French Presidential Election with Betfair Exchange at 4.50 = 4.74 after 5% commission.
Roll up, roll up, this can't last!
DYOR.0 -
Normally the £7.71 on isn't worth it, surprised they let me have £100. I noticed it earlier, only came back to it when you mentioned it. Thanks.peter_from_putney said:
I was seriously beginning to wonder whether anyone was going to take up this opportunity to make a tax free, risk free 20% profit, with just a few clicks on a computer keyboard .... and this is supposed to be a political betting site .... oh dearie me!TheWhiteRabbit said:
Good bet. Odds now cut to 4.3 (someone checked betfair!) but not before I got £100 on.peter_from_putney said:*** FREE MONEY ALERT *** FREE MONEY ALERT *** FREE MONEY ALERT ***
Back Fillon to win the French Presidential Election with Sportingbet at 5.50
Lay him to lose the French Presidential Election with Betfair Exchange at 4.50 = 4.74 after 5% commission.
Roll up, roll up, this can't last!
DYOR.0 -
Mr. Putney, didn't see it in time *and* only have the two accounts. Good spot, though.
To be fair, I think there's been a lot more betting here lately, not only with F1 but the by-elections and French presidency too.0 -
How do you know? Have you got proof or is this your fantasy? At GE2010 more teachers voted CON than LAB.kyf_100 said:
How many right-wing teachers are there? How many right-wing lecturers?PClipp said:
I think the younger age groups are repelled by the Tories, because they are being hit by them here and now. Older age groups are still giving the Tories the benefit of the doubt over the Brexit negotiations. People still cling to the idea that the Tories are going to deliver on whatever policy it was that moved them to vote for Leave. It won`t last, of course, because the Tories are in an entirely contradictory position, which makes it impossible for them to satisfy everybody. The most they can hope for is to satisfy Murdoch - and that would be another turn-off for most voters.kle4 said:
Yes, but the question is why the 18-24 year old ones are the only group who are so appalled - you presumably think they are nasty to everyone, except pensioners, but only the18-24 year olds are sticking with Corbyn. Nastiness of the Tories, even if true, does not explain it on its own.PClipp said:
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?
The education system drills it into kids that the Tories are nasty and evil. University is little better but fortunately it's about the age you start to think for yourself.
Once you're out in the big wide world you realise the solutions offered by the left are naive and simplistic at best and begin the inexorable journey towards more pragmatic and less ideologically driven answers to the problems of the day.
Yours is the sort of comment that drives me to despair.0 -
Even if what you say is true, there's little rationale for shifting the EU parliament between Brussels and Strasbourg either, but they still do itCharles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.0 -
How many openly Con?MikeSmithson said:
How do you know? Have you got proof or is this your fantasy? At GE2010 more teachers voted CON than LAB.kyf_100 said:
How many right-wing teachers are there? How many right-wing lecturers?PClipp said:
I think the younger age groups are repelled by the Tories, because they are being hit by them here and now. Older age groups are still giving the Tories the benefit of the doubt over the Brexit negotiations. People still cling to the idea that the Tories are going to deliver on whatever policy it was that moved them to vote for Leave. It won`t last, of course, because the Tories are in an entirely contradictory position, which makes it impossible for them to satisfy everybody. The most they can hope for is to satisfy Murdoch - and that would be another turn-off for most voters.kle4 said:
Yes, but the question is why the 18-24 year old ones are the only group who are so appalled - you presumably think they are nasty to everyone, except pensioners, but only the18-24 year olds are sticking with Corbyn. Nastiness of the Tories, even if true, does not explain it on its own.PClipp said:
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?
The education system drills it into kids that the Tories are nasty and evil. University is little better but fortunately it's about the age you start to think for yourself.
Once you're out in the big wide world you realise the solutions offered by the left are naive and simplistic at best and begin the inexorable journey towards more pragmatic and less ideologically driven answers to the problems of the day.
Yours is the sort of comment that drives me to despair.
It seems to be socially acceptable to preach left wing views to students but not right wing ones.0 -
More fundamentally it's a microcosm of why there's little rationale for leaving the EU at all given that ongoing membership of the EMA implies that we will still be subject to binding decisions by the European Commission.kle4 said:
Even if what you say is true, there's little rationale for shifting the EU parliament between Brussels and Strasbourg either, but they still do itCharles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.0 -
It's part of the innate right wing desire for Victimhood. A fantasy is constructed where the whole world is against them. Even when they are in power it's only due to heroic struggle against the shadowy forces of left wingers who secretly control everything.MikeSmithson said:
How do you know? Have you got proof or is this your fantasy? At GE2010 more teachers voted CON than LAB.
Yours is the sort of comment that drives me to despair.0 -
Inertia is a powerful forcekle4 said:
Even if what you say is true, there's little rationale for shifting the EU parliament between Brussels and Strasbourg either, but they still do itCharles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.
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The Greens are going up!!
Well done Plymouth Argyle.0 -
lolAlistair said:
It's part of the innate right wing desire for Victimhood. A fantasy is constructed where the whole world is against them. Even when they are in power it's only due to heroic struggle against the shadowy forces of left wingers who secretly control everything.MikeSmithson said:
How do you know? Have you got proof or is this your fantasy? At GE2010 more teachers voted CON than LAB.
Yours is the sort of comment that drives me to despair.0 -
Does it get your tearing your hair out?MikeSmithson said:
How do you know? Have you got proof or is this your fantasy? At GE2010 more teachers voted CON than LAB.kyf_100 said:
How many right-wing teachers are there? How many right-wing lecturers?PClipp said:
I think the younger age groups are repelled by the Tories, because they are being hit by them here and now. Older age groups are still giving the Tories the benefit of the doubt over the Brexit negotiations. People still cling to the idea that the Tories are going to deliver on whatever policy it was that moved them to vote for Leave. It won`t last, of course, because the Tories are in an entirely contradictory position, which makes it impossible for them to satisfy everybody. The most they can hope for is to satisfy Murdoch - and that would be another turn-off for most voters.kle4 said:
Yes, but the question is why the 18-24 year old ones are the only group who are so appalled - you presumably think they are nasty to everyone, except pensioners, but only the18-24 year olds are sticking with Corbyn. Nastiness of the Tories, even if true, does not explain it on its own.PClipp said:
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?
The education system drills it into kids that the Tories are nasty and evil. University is little better but fortunately it's about the age you start to think for yourself.
Once you're out in the big wide world you realise the solutions offered by the left are naive and simplistic at best and begin the inexorable journey towards more pragmatic and less ideologically driven answers to the problems of the day.
Yours is the sort of comment that drives me to despair.0 -
If the EU was just about the EMA then I'm sure Remain would have one by a landslide.williamglenn said:
More fundamentally it's a microcosm of why there's little rationale for leaving the EU at all given that ongoing membership of the EMA implies that we will still be subject to binding decisions by the European Commission.kle4 said:
Even if what you say is true, there's little rationale for shifting the EU parliament between Brussels and Strasbourg either, but they still do itCharles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.0 -
It is true that there in the Universities and HE there is a strong left-wing influence. As for teachers the louder voices are usually very left-wing but in actual real elections there is a strongish Conservative vote. Opinion polls before the last GE suggested Labour were well ahead with the profession.MikeSmithson said:
How do you know? Have you got proof or is this your fantasy? At GE2010 more teachers voted CON than LAB.kyf_100 said:
How many right-wing teachers are there? How many right-wing lecturers?PClipp said:
I think the younger age groups are repelled by the Tories, because they are being hit by them here and now. Older age groups are still giving the Tories the benefit of the doubt over the Brexit negotiations. People still cling to the idea that the Tories are going to deliver on whatever policy it was that moved them to vote for Leave. It won`t last, of course, because the Tories are in an entirely contradictory position, which makes it impossible for them to satisfy everybody. The most they can hope for is to satisfy Murdoch - and that would be another turn-off for most voters.kle4 said:
Yes, but the question is why the 18-24 year old ones are the only group who are so appalled - you presumably think they are nasty to everyone, except pensioners, but only the18-24 year olds are sticking with Corbyn. Nastiness of the Tories, even if true, does not explain it on its own.PClipp said:
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?
The education system drills it into kids that the Tories are nasty and evil. University is little better but fortunately it's about the age you start to think for yourself.
Once you're out in the big wide world you realise the solutions offered by the left are naive and simplistic at best and begin the inexorable journey towards more pragmatic and less ideologically driven answers to the problems of the day.
Yours is the sort of comment that drives me to despair.0 -
There is the best possible reason for Leaving the EU...williamglenn said:
More fundamentally it's a microcosm of why there's little rationale for leaving the EU at all given that ongoing membership of the EMA implies that we will still be subject to binding decisions by the European Commission.kle4 said:
Even if what you say is true, there's little rationale for shifting the EU parliament between Brussels and Strasbourg either, but they still do itCharles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.0 -
Oh dear - fantasy is not confined to the right clearly.Alistair said:
It's part of the innate right wing desire for Victimhood. A fantasy is constructed where the whole world is against them. Even when they are in power it's only due to heroic struggle against the shadowy forces of left wingers who secretly control everything.MikeSmithson said:
How do you know? Have you got proof or is this your fantasy? At GE2010 more teachers voted CON than LAB.
Yours is the sort of comment that drives me to despair.0 -
The rationale would be... Oh look here are 1,000 jobs that can come to our country directly and will surely bring some more indirectly with it.Charles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.0 -
Not any moreFrancisUrquhart said:
Does it get your tearing your hair out?MikeSmithson said:
How do you know? Have you got proof or is this your fantasy? At GE2010 more teachers voted CON than LAB.kyf_100 said:
How many right-wing teachers are there? How many right-wing lecturers?PClipp said:
I think the younger age groups are repelled by the Tories, because they are being hit by them here and now. Older age groups are still giving the Tories the benefit of the doubt over the Brexit negotiations. People still cling to the idea that the Tories are going to deliver on whatever policy it was that moved them to vote for Leave. It won`t last, of course, because the Tories are in an entirely contradictory position, which makes it impossible for them to satisfy everybody. The most they can hope for is to satisfy Murdoch - and that would be another turn-off for most voters.kle4 said:
Yes, but the question is why the 18-24 year old ones are the only group who are so appalled - you presumably think they are nasty to everyone, except pensioners, but only the18-24 year olds are sticking with Corbyn. Nastiness of the Tories, even if true, does not explain it on its own.PClipp said:
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?
The education system drills it into kids that the Tories are nasty and evil. University is little better but fortunately it's about the age you start to think for yourself.
Once you're out in the big wide world you realise the solutions offered by the left are naive and simplistic at best and begin the inexorable journey towards more pragmatic and less ideologically driven answers to the problems of the day.
Yours is the sort of comment that drives me to despair.
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Re: Scottish candidates. You lot should all become converts to backing STV for UK elections. Its depth and complexity knocks FPTnP into the park; would keep this forum occupied forever debating the thinking behind the thinking.
Re: Teachers. I know it's a Bank Holiday but some of you are too far down the bottle for 4 in the afternoon.0 -
RobD said:
If the EU was just about the EMA then I'm sure Remain would have one by a landslide.
How on earth is the Brexit coalition going to hold together throughout these negotiations? Brexit was promised to be many different things, but in reality there can only be one, and most of the people who voted for it are going to hate it.ThreeQuidder said:There is the best possible reason for Leaving the EU...
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Just laid Le Pen to make final two at 1.34 on betfair. Good bet?
Feels very tight but seems as though she is dropping....0 -
Apologies for driving you to despair, but these links will hardly cheer you up!MikeSmithson said:
How do you know? Have you got proof or is this your fantasy? At GE2010 more teachers voted CON than LAB.
Yours is the sort of comment that drives me to despair.
Some stats:
2017 - Survey finds 80% of university lecturers left leaning
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/03/02/eight-ten-british-university-lecturers-left-wing-survey-finds/
2015 election - public sector workers 20 points more likely to vote Labour (up from 16 in 2010)
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/
2015 election - Support for Tories among teachers fell to 29%
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/who-should-i-vote-for-as-a-teacher-teachers-shun-the-coalition-after-years-of-michael-gove-10189930.html
Some anecdotes:
2016 "To survive as a Tory teacher, you have to keep quiet"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/to-survive-as-a-tory-teacher-you-have-to-keep-quiet/
2015 "There are a lot more quietly Tory teachers than you think"
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/may/18/lot-more-tory-teachers-than-think-vote-conservative
I'm not saying that _every_ teacher is a Trot, indoctrinating our kids with Marxist ideology, but the links I've provided above show a pretty clear pattern, namely that the teaching profession is overwhelmingly left leaning and that tellingly, if you're a right-wing teacher you are more likely to shut up about it.
It is much like the BBC - I'm not the kind of frothing right wing nutter who goes on about it being a Marxist mouthpiece or anything like that, but there is clear systemic bias that overwhelmingly and unconsciously favours one world view. It is overwhelmingly the world view that kids are exposed to until they leave uni and embark on their journey into the real world with all its problems that require pragmatic solutions that socialist ideology can't fix.
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That's for democracy to resolve. We can elect a government that prioritised one thing, or another party that prioritised another. But it will be our choice and our control.williamglenn said:RobD said:If the EU was just about the EMA then I'm sure Remain would have one by a landslide.
How on earth is the Brexit coalition going to hold together throughout these negotiations? Brexit was promised to be many different things, but in reality there can only be one, and most of the people who voted for it are going to hate it.ThreeQuidder said:There is the best possible reason for Leaving the EU...
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Mr. rkrkrk, laid Le Pen for round 2 at 1.16 or thereabouts (tiny stake, mind). I think it was Mr. G who suggested it.0
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Only one country will pick up the base, the remaining 26 pick up the bill.rkrkrk said:
The rationale would be... Oh look here are 1,000 jobs that can come to our country directly and will surely bring some more indirectly with it.Charles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.
0 -
There is a huge leap between asserting the political leanings of teachers, mostly in a profession for vocation rather than money, and suggesting that in between teaching the government's national curriculum and doing a whole load of lesson planning, on the side they are somehow influencing the voting habits of an entire cohort of 18-24 year olds for years thereafter, which is frankly ludicrous. If teachers were so influential on young people's opinions, a lot of other problems would have gone away.kyf_100 said:
Apologies for driving you to despair, but these links will hardly cheer you up!MikeSmithson said:
How do you know? Have you got proof or is this your fantasy? At GE2010 more teachers voted CON than LAB.
Yours is the sort of comment that drives me to despair.
Some stats:
2017 - Survey finds 80% of university lecturers left leaning
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/03/02/eight-ten-british-university-lecturers-left-wing-survey-finds/
2015 election - public sector workers 20 points more likely to vote Labour (up from 16 in 2010)
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/
2015 election - Support for Tories among teachers fell to 29%
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/who-should-i-vote-for-as-a-teacher-teachers-shun-the-coalition-after-years-of-michael-gove-10189930.html
Some anecdotes:
2016 "To survive as a Tory teacher, you have to keep quiet"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/to-survive-as-a-tory-teacher-you-have-to-keep-quiet/
2015 "There are a lot more quietly Tory teachers than you think"
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/may/18/lot-more-tory-teachers-than-think-vote-conservative
I'm not saying that _every_ teacher is a Trot, indoctrinating our kids with Marxist ideology, but the links I've provided above show a pretty clear pattern, namely that the teaching profession is overwhelmingly left leaning and that tellingly, if you're a right-wing teacher you are more likely to shut up about it.
It is much like the BBC - I'm not the kind of frothing right wing nutter who goes on about it being a Marxist mouthpiece or anything like that, but there is clear systemic bias that overwhelmingly and unconsciously favours one world view. It is overwhelmingly the world view that kids are exposed to until they leave uni and embark on their journey into the real world with all its problems that require pragmatic solutions that socialist ideology can't fix.0 -
Ah, good. I always like it when playoff losers go up the next year - looks like two of the three from last year's fourth division will.FattyBolger said:The Greens are going up!!
Well done Plymouth Argyle.0 -
Do you want a friendly bet on where the headquarters of the EMA are on 01 January 2020 (assuming UK does leave EU)?chestnut said:
Only one country will pick up the base, the remaining 26 pick up the bill.rkrkrk said:
The rationale would be... Oh look here are 1,000 jobs that can come to our country directly and will surely bring some more indirectly with it.Charles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.0 -
So you are calling for on-going referenda?Philip_Thompson said:
That's for democracy to resolve. We can elect a government that prioritised one thing, or another party that prioritised another. But it will be our choice and our control.williamglenn said:RobD said:If the EU was just about the EMA then I'm sure Remain would have one by a landslide.
How on earth is the Brexit coalition going to hold together throughout these negotiations? Brexit was promised to be many different things, but in reality there can only be one, and most of the people who voted for it are going to hate it.ThreeQuidder said:There is the best possible reason for Leaving the EU...
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Good for you! I'd definitely take it up at those odds.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. rkrkrk, laid Le Pen for round 2 at 1.16 or thereabouts (tiny stake, mind). I think it was Mr. G who suggested it.
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ReferendumsOldKingCole said:
So you are calling for on-going referenda?Philip_Thompson said:
That's for democracy to resolve. We can elect a government that prioritised one thing, or another party that prioritised another. But it will be our choice and our control.williamglenn said:RobD said:If the EU was just about the EMA then I'm sure Remain would have one by a landslide.
How on earth is the Brexit coalition going to hold together throughout these negotiations? Brexit was promised to be many different things, but in reality there can only be one, and most of the people who voted for it are going to hate it.ThreeQuidder said:There is the best possible reason for Leaving the EU...
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That's Mélenchon's highest score ever with Ifop.BudG said:Today's ifop rolling poll :
Macron 23 (+0.5)
Le Pen 22.5 (-0.5)
Melenchon 19.5 (+0.5)
Fillon 19.5 (+0.5)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_17-04-2017.pdf0 -
It will be somewhere in the EU at that date I would guess, unless you are suggesting it will remain in the UK?rkrkrk said:
Do you want a friendly bet on where the headquarters of the EMA are on 01 January 2020 (assuming UK does leave EU)?chestnut said:
Only one country will pick up the base, the remaining 26 pick up the bill.rkrkrk said:
The rationale would be... Oh look here are 1,000 jobs that can come to our country directly and will surely bring some more indirectly with it.Charles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.
The key point is that the majority of the 27 (by a margin of 26 to 1) will prioritise getting out of the long term rental cost rather than gaining jobs when arranging/negotiating the departure.0 -
Absolutely, I agree.IanB2 said:
There is a huge leap between asserting the political leanings of teachers, mostly in a profession for vocation rather than money, and suggesting that in between teaching the government's national curriculum and doing a whole load of lesson planning, on the side they are somehow influencing the voting habits of an entire cohort of 18-24 year olds for years thereafter, which is frankly ludicrous. If teachers were so influential on young people's opinions, a lot of other problems would have gone away.
It's not a conspiracy or far-left plot, it is simply an unconscious bias in the system that exposes children and young adults to more left-leaning ideas than right-leaning ones.
What I'm trying to do is explain why young adults are more socialist, and I think that's partly down to being exposed to more left-wing views than right-wing ones, but also recognising as you get older that life is about compromises and the capitalist system we've got is, in many respects, the 'least worst'.
IMHO Corbyn's unbending socialist ideology can only appeal to the sort of people who indulge in naive fantasy economics, which most people grow out of as they get older. Pragmatism rules the day for most of us.
Blair understood this and won three elections with a kind of compassionate capitalism. I think the Lib Dems could easily supplant Corbynite Labour and do the same.0 -
Mr. rkrkrk, does look value now, but I think my stake was a colossal pound
0 -
I'm saying it will be somewhere in the EU yes.chestnut said:
It will be somewhere in the EU at that date I would guess, unless you are suggesting it will remain in the UK?rkrkrk said:
Do you want a friendly bet on where the headquarters of the EMA are on 01 January 2020 (assuming UK does leave EU)?chestnut said:
Only one country will pick up the base, the remaining 26 pick up the bill.rkrkrk said:
The rationale would be... Oh look here are 1,000 jobs that can come to our country directly and will surely bring some more indirectly with it.Charles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.
The key point is that the majority of the 27 (by a margin of 26 to 1) will prioritise getting out of the bill rather than gaining jobs in arranging/negotiating the departure.
The key point i am making is that those suggesting it will stay in the UK are being unrealistic.0 -
I lost that laying Hamilton for the podium. Should have followed your tip!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. rkrkrk, does look value now, but I think my stake was a colossal pound
0 -
Philip_Thompson said:
That's for democracy to resolve. We can elect a government that prioritised one thing, or another party that prioritised another. But it will be our choice and our control. /blockquote>williamglenn said:How on earth is the Brexit coalition going to hold together throughout these negotiations? Brexit was promised to be many different things, but in reality there can only be one, and most of the people who voted for it are going to hate it.
As a vague generalisation, that seems reasonable enough. In practice, Mrs May and her colleagues are taking decisions for short-term reasons (narrow party advantage) that will do irreparable harm to the long-term interests of the country. Nobody voted for what she is now intending to do to us.0 -
0
-
Are you sure?IanB2 said:
ReferendumsOldKingCole said:
So you are calling for on-going referenda?Philip_Thompson said:
That's for democracy to resolve. We can elect a government that prioritised one thing, or another party that prioritised another. But it will be our choice and our control.williamglenn said:RobD said:If the EU was just about the EMA then I'm sure Remain would have one by a landslide.
How on earth is the Brexit coalition going to hold together throughout these negotiations? Brexit was promised to be many different things, but in reality there can only be one, and most of the people who voted for it are going to hate it.ThreeQuidder said:There is the best possible reason for Leaving the EU...
0 -
Eu-fanatics like you don't get it.williamglenn said:
More fundamentally it's a microcosm of why there's little rationale for leaving the EU at all given that ongoing membership of the EMA implies that we will still be subject to binding decisions by the European Commission.kle4 said:
Even if what you say is true, there's little rationale for shifting the EU parliament between Brussels and Strasbourg either, but they still do itCharles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.
A binding decision of the ECJ on a practical matter like a ruling of the EMA matters not a jot.
The UK being outvoted on QMV or caught by ECJ judicial creep is important0 -
I think it's improbable and certainly wouldn't be the EU's wish.rkrkrk said:
I'm saying it will be somewhere in the EU yes.chestnut said:
It will be somewhere in the EU at that date I would guess, unless you are suggesting it will remain in the UK?rkrkrk said:
Do you want a friendly bet on where the headquarters of the EMA are on 01 January 2020 (assuming UK does leave EU)?chestnut said:
Only one country will pick up the base, the remaining 26 pick up the bill.rkrkrk said:
The rationale would be... Oh look here are 1,000 jobs that can come to our country directly and will surely bring some more indirectly with it.Charles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.
The key point is that the majority of the 27 (by a margin of 26 to 1) will prioritise getting out of the bill rather than gaining jobs in arranging/negotiating the departure.
The key point i am making is that those suggesting it will stay in the UK are being unrealistic.
The practicalities of setting up an office for 1,000 staff and then finding a location that a very diverse, multinational workforce are happy to relocate to may be problematic in some way.
I wonder at what point the smaller and more peripheral nations will notice that the EU's 'City' gains from Brexit all seem to be landing in very few places in the EU.
0 -
We'd need to give something for it, of course. Even an unnecessary cost of £250m wouldn't believe bother the politiciansrkrkrk said:
The rationale would be... Oh look here are 1,000 jobs that can come to our country directly and will surely bring some more indirectly with it.Charles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.0 -
Fancy betting a fiver on it then?chestnut said:
I think it's improbable and certainly wouldn't be the EU's wish.
The practicalities of setting up an office for 1,000 staff and then finding a location that a very diverse, multinational workforce are happy to relocate to may be problematic in some way.
I wonder at what point the smaller and more peripheral nations will notice that the EU's 'City' gains from Brexit all seem to be landing in very few places in the EU.0 -
Stockholm would be the best (apart from London) but I doubt it will end up there!rkrkrk said:
Do you want a friendly bet on where the headquarters of the EMA are on 01 January 2020 (assuming UK does leave EU)?chestnut said:
Only one country will pick up the base, the remaining 26 pick up the bill.rkrkrk said:
The rationale would be... Oh look here are 1,000 jobs that can come to our country directly and will surely bring some more indirectly with it.Charles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.0 -
Sorry wasn't clear... You take London... I take the EU.Charles said:
Stockholm would be the best (apart from London) but I doubt it will end up there!rkrkrk said:
Do you want a friendly bet on where the headquarters of the EMA are on 01 January 2020 (assuming UK does leave EU)?chestnut said:
Only one country will pick up the base, the remaining 26 pick up the bill.rkrkrk said:
The rationale would be... Oh look here are 1,000 jobs that can come to our country directly and will surely bring some more indirectly with it.Charles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.
If they move it to San Francisco the bet is off!0 -
I believe that some on this board have very strong opinions on the subject based on (varying) dead language abilities.OldKingCole said:
Are you sure?IanB2 said:
ReferendumsOldKingCole said:
So you are calling for on-going referenda?Philip_Thompson said:
That's for democracy to resolve. We can elect a government that prioritised one thing, or another party that prioritised another. But it will be our choice and our control.williamglenn said:RobD said:If the EU was just about the EMA then I'm sure Remain would have one by a landslide.
How on earth is the Brexit coalition going to hold together throughout these negotiations? Brexit was promised to be many different things, but in reality there can only be one, and most of the people who voted for it are going to hate it.ThreeQuidder said:There is the best possible reason for Leaving the EU...
From memory TSE/Mike have adopted a thread header policy too.
Also from memory - if this topic kicks off as it has done before - we will all regret it.0 -
Nah. I don't really bet because the returns on capital aren't attractive enough.rkrkrk said:
Sorry wasn't clear... You take London... I take the EU.Charles said:
Stockholm would be the best (apart from London) but I doubt it will end up there!rkrkrk said:
Do you want a friendly bet on where the headquarters of the EMA are on 01 January 2020 (assuming UK does leave EU)?chestnut said:
Only one country will pick up the base, the remaining 26 pick up the bill.rkrkrk said:
The rationale would be... Oh look here are 1,000 jobs that can come to our country directly and will surely bring some more indirectly with it.Charles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.
If they move it to San Francisco the bet is off!0 -
Mr. rkrkrk, that was a brave bet, to be honest. My tips are more or less 50/50 so far this season, although it's very early days.0
-
Wkipedia says it’s -s, so I suppose it must be right.GeoffM said:
I believe that some on this board have very strong opinions on the subject based on (varying) dead language abilities.OldKingCole said:
Are you sure?IanB2 said:
ReferendumsOldKingCole said:
So you are calling for on-going referenda?Philip_Thompson said:
That's for democracy to resolve. We can elect a government that prioritised one thing, or another party that prioritised another. But it will be our choice and our control.williamglenn said:RobD said:If the EU was just about the EMA then I'm sure Remain would have one by a landslide.
How on earth is the Brexit coalition going to hold together throughout these negotiations? Brexit was promised to be many different things, but in reality there can only be one, and most of the people who voted for it are going to hate it.ThreeQuidder said:There is the best possible reason for Leaving the EU...
From memory TSE/Mike have adopted a thread header policy too.
Also from memory - if this topic kicks off as it has done before - we will all regret it.0 -
Perhaps they have a hidden agendum?OldKingCole said:
Wkipedia says it’s -s, so I suppose it must be right.GeoffM said:
I believe that some on this board have very strong opinions on the subject based on (varying) dead language abilities.OldKingCole said:
Are you sure?IanB2 said:
ReferendumsOldKingCole said:
So you are calling for on-going referenda?Philip_Thompson said:
That's for democracy to resolve. We can elect a government that prioritised one thing, or another party that prioritised another. But it will be our choice and our control.williamglenn said:RobD said:If the EU was just about the EMA then I'm sure Remain would have one by a landslide.
How on earth is the Brexit coalition going to hold together throughout these negotiations? Brexit was promised to be many different things, but in reality there can only be one, and most of the people who voted for it are going to hate it.ThreeQuidder said:There is the best possible reason for Leaving the EU...
From memory TSE/Mike have adopted a thread header policy too.
Also from memory - if this topic kicks off as it has done before - we will all regret it.0 -
See also the all-powerful gynocracy oppressing put-upon, tyrannised bruvvas everywhere.Alistair said:
It's part of the innate right wing desire for Victimhood. A fantasy is constructed where the whole world is against them. Even when they are in power it's only due to heroic struggle against the shadowy forces of left wingers who secretly control everything.MikeSmithson said:
How do you know? Have you got proof or is this your fantasy? At GE2010 more teachers voted CON than LAB.
Yours is the sort of comment that drives me to despair.0 -
Mr. Divvie, sexism works both ways. This is partly why there are declining numbers of men working in primary schools.0
-
Why have Fillon's odds shortened so much in the last day or two?
Polls don't seem to show much movement.
0 -
Mr. L, the odds have frequently seemed out of kilter with the polling. Starting from scratch, one would make it almost equal odds for the four contenders.0
-
You've got to be kidding.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, the odds have frequently seemed out of kilter with the polling. Starting from scratch, one would make it almost equal odds for the four contenders.
0 -
Amongst under 35s in today's IFOP it is Melenchon 27%, Le Pen 23%, Macron 23%, Fillon 9%MikeL said:Why have Fillon's odds shortened so much in the last day or two?
Polls don't seem to show much movement.
Amongst over 35s it is Fillon 23%, Macron 23%, Le Pen 22%, Melenchon 17%
64% of under 35s are likely to vote and 36% not, compared to 72% of over 35s likely to vote and 28% not
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_17-04-2017.pdf0 -
The Scottish Lib Dems have areas of massive strength and areas where there are hardly any members/activists. The Western half of the central belt has always been particularly weak for the party (apart from Greenock & East Dunbartonshire). In some areas all it takes is for a few key members to move away or get involved in other things and you can end up with no organisation at all.IanB2 said:
All parties have difficulty finding candidates, particularly once those with the wrong reasons for standing have been weeded out. I suspect it is lack of organisation, and/or tradition leading key people to stand as independents - something much more common in rural rUK in the old days (for example in the West Country).calum said:
It's not particularly harder to get nominated, with there being a fair number of independent candidates standing.BigRich said:
Interesting table, S Lab aren't putting up candidates in 3 councils! (But its the 3 island councils so normal I think?)calum said:Interestingly the Scottish LibDems aren't putting any candidates up in 8 out of the 32 councils - see page 2 of the PDF
http://www.electionsscotland.info/downloads/file/343/scottish_local_government_elections_2017_-_summary_of_candidates_nominated
I'm actually confused as there seem less candidates overall than I would have expected.
Even the SNP is only putting up 627 out of 1227, 51.1% and that's the highest by a long way.
Is it harder to get people nominated in Scotland that England and wales? or is the AV system encouraging parties to tactically stand down? or are all the parties struggling to find people to stand? or something else I have not noticed?
I think the STV system does mean parties have to be cautious around how many candidates they put up per ward, typically you'd only put up the number of candidates who have some prospect of winning after transfers. That said, this doesn't explain why the likes of Scottish LibDems are fielding no candidates in councils other than the traditional independent councils in a number of the islands. The lack of candidates could well be a factor - if so, that'd be deeply worrying for any party in this position.
That being said, the Scottish LDs should be able to make decent gains in the traditional strongholds where they're the best organised opposition to the SNP. My feeling is that the Tories are going to make significant progress elsewhere and Labour are going to have an unpleasant night. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out in terms of control of the councils.0 -
Yeah. Referenda are the same question again and again. So maybe he was right after allOldKingCole said:
Wkipedia says it’s -s, so I suppose it must be right.GeoffM said:
I believe that some on this board have very strong opinions on the subject based on (varying) dead language abilities.OldKingCole said:
Are you sure?IanB2 said:
ReferendumsOldKingCole said:
So you are calling for on-going referenda?Philip_Thompson said:
That's for democracy to resolve. We can elect a government that prioritised one thing, or another party that prioritised another. But it will be our choice and our control.williamglenn said:RobD said:If the EU was just about the EMA then I'm sure Remain would have one by a landslide.
How on earth is the Brexit coalition going to hold together throughout these negotiations? Brexit was promised to be many different things, but in reality there can only be one, and most of the people who voted for it are going to hate it.ThreeQuidder said:There is the best possible reason for Leaving the EU...
From memory TSE/Mike have adopted a thread header policy too.
Also from memory - if this topic kicks off as it has done before - we will all regret it. 0 -
It's not a right or left wing desire. The particulars of the victimhood differ, but people love feeling put upon. Bunch of snowflakes, the whole lot.Alistair said:
It's part of the innate right wing desire for Victimhood. A fantasy is constructed where the whole world is against them. Even when they are in power it's only due to heroic struggle against the shadowy forces of left wingers who secretly control everything.MikeSmithson said:
How do you know? Have you got proof or is this your fantasy? At GE2010 more teachers voted CON than LAB.
Yours is the sort of comment that drives me to despair.0 -
You are over-complicating things. When you have dreams and ideals but not property or money, you lean left. When you have property and money but, dreams and ideals, not so much, you lean right. When you have a governing party pandering to the elderly, those on the other end of the deal aren't likely to be quite so impressed. Teachers have nothing whatsoever to do with it.kyf_100 said:
Absolutely, I agree.IanB2 said:
There is a huge leap between asserting the political leanings of teachers, mostly in a profession for vocation rather than money, and suggesting that in between teaching the government's national curriculum and doing a whole load of lesson planning, on the side they are somehow influencing the voting habits of an entire cohort of 18-24 year olds for years thereafter, which is frankly ludicrous. If teachers were so influential on young people's opinions, a lot of other problems would have gone away.
It's not a conspiracy or far-left plot, it is simply an unconscious bias in the system that exposes children and young adults to more left-leaning ideas than right-leaning ones.
What I'm trying to do is explain why young adults are more socialist, and I think that's partly down to being exposed to more left-wing views than right-wing ones, but also recognising as you get older that life is about compromises and the capitalist system we've got is, in many respects, the 'least worst'.
IMHO Corbyn's unbending socialist ideology can only appeal to the sort of people who indulge in naive fantasy economics, which most people grow out of as they get older. Pragmatism rules the day for most of us.
Blair understood this and won three elections with a kind of compassionate capitalism. I think the Lib Dems could easily supplant Corbynite Labour and do the same.0 -
Mr. kle4, being offended and being oppressed mean you don't need things like persuasion, reason, or evidence to support your position.
I've never been a fan of pathos over logos, and the current climate only strengthens my view.
Mr. Pulpstar, well, equal to get through to round two.0 -
Generation Snowflake...
New 9-1 GCSE grades 'creating uncertainty for schools'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39620604
Not the kids, the adults...0 -
Yeah, Scotland is the one part of the UK where the LibDems have always had a very efficiently-distributed vote, and where FPTP works very much in their favour: witness 1997 where they came a pretty distant 4th in votes in Scotland, yet came 2nd on seats.aschamberlain said:
The Scottish Lib Dems have areas of massive strength and areas where there are hardly any members/activists. The Western half of the central belt has always been particularly weak for the party (apart from Greenock & East Dunbartonshire). In some areas all it takes is for a few key members to move away or get involved in other things and you can end up with no organisation at all.
That being said, the Scottish LDs should be able to make decent gains in the traditional strongholds where they're the best organised opposition to the SNP. My feeling is that the Tories are going to make significant progress elsewhere and Labour are going to have an unpleasant night. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out in terms of control of the councils.0 -
Melenchon is the outsider still here.Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Pulpstar, well, equal to get through to round two.
I've got Fillon at ~+0 now anyhow.0 -
They were even more well distributed in the Holyrood elections last year. Their vote barely budged, but they won two more FPTP constituencies at a canter*.Danny565 said:
Yeah, Scotland is the one part of the UK where the LibDems have always had a very efficiently-distributed vote, and where FPTP works very much in their favour: witness 1997 where they came a pretty distant 4th in votes in Scotland, yet came 2nd on seats.aschamberlain said:
The Scottish Lib Dems have areas of massive strength and areas where there are hardly any members/activists. The Western half of the central belt has always been particularly weak for the party (apart from Greenock & East Dunbartonshire). In some areas all it takes is for a few key members to move away or get involved in other things and you can end up with no organisation at all.
That being said, the Scottish LDs should be able to make decent gains in the traditional strongholds where they're the best organised opposition to the SNP. My feeling is that the Tories are going to make significant progress elsewhere and Labour are going to have an unpleasant night. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out in terms of control of the councils.
* And were there an election tomorrow, I'd expect them to pick up the Westminster versions of both these constituencies (NE Fife, Edinburgh West) from the SNP.0 -
OK, question.Pulpstar said:
Melenchon is the outsider still here.Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Pulpstar, well, equal to get through to round two.
I've got Fillon at ~+0 now anyhow.
What odds Le Pen, vs Macron and vs Fillon in the next round? Let's assume the minimum of change to the current polls for the 1st round result.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, I agree, but it wouldn't be astounding if he reached the second round.0
-
If Brexit leads to the break up of the UK, will you see it as having been futile? In the long run do you want to see a Europe without the EU?Charles said:
Eu-fanatics like you don't get it.williamglenn said:
More fundamentally it's a microcosm of why there's little rationale for leaving the EU at all given that ongoing membership of the EMA implies that we will still be subject to binding decisions by the European Commission.kle4 said:
Even if what you say is true, there's little rationale for shifting the EU parliament between Brussels and Strasbourg either, but they still do itCharles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.
A binding decision of the ECJ on a practical matter like a ruling of the EMA matters not a jot.
The UK being outvoted on QMV or caught by ECJ judicial creep is important0 -
Edinburgh West a gain from Independent surely?rcs1000 said:
They were even more well distributed in the Holyrood elections last year. Their vote barely budged, but they won two more FPTP constituencies at a canter*.Danny565 said:
Yeah, Scotland is the one part of the UK where the LibDems have always had a very efficiently-distributed vote, and where FPTP works very much in their favour: witness 1997 where they came a pretty distant 4th in votes in Scotland, yet came 2nd on seats.aschamberlain said:
The Scottish Lib Dems have areas of massive strength and areas where there are hardly any members/activists. The Western half of the central belt has always been particularly weak for the party (apart from Greenock & East Dunbartonshire). In some areas all it takes is for a few key members to move away or get involved in other things and you can end up with no organisation at all.
That being said, the Scottish LDs should be able to make decent gains in the traditional strongholds where they're the best organised opposition to the SNP. My feeling is that the Tories are going to make significant progress elsewhere and Labour are going to have an unpleasant night. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out in terms of control of the councils.
* And were there an election tomorrow, I'd expect them to pick up the Westminster versions of both these constituencies (NE Fife, Edinburgh West) from the SNP.0 -
Well this poll could put the cat amongst the betting pigeons
Elabe
Macron 24 (+0.5)
Le Pen 23 ( +0.5)
Fillon 19.5 (-0.5)
Melenchon 18 (-0.5)
Not much movement, but the gap is the widest we have seen for a while between the top and bottom 2
http://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/17042017_bfmtv_lexpress_intentions-de-vote-presidentielles-vague-9.pdf0 -
Actually I need to self-correct, since misleading PB colleagues must be some sort of offence. I guess ?IanB2 said:
Yeah. Referenda are the same question again and again. So maybe he was right after allOldKingCole said:
Wkipedia says it’s -s, so I suppose it must be right.GeoffM said:
I believe that some on this board have very strong opinions on the subject based on (varying) dead language abilities.OldKingCole said:
Are you sure?IanB2 said:
ReferendumsOldKingCole said:
So you are calling for on-going referenda?Philip_Thompson said:
That's for democracy to resolve. We can elect a government that prioritised one thing, or another party that prioritised another. But it will be our choice and our control.williamglenn said:RobD said:If the EU was just about the EMA then I'm sure Remain would have one by a landslide.
How on earth is the Brexit coalition going to hold together throughout these negotiations? Brexit was promised to be many different things, but in reality there can only be one, and most of the people who voted for it are going to hate it.ThreeQuidder said:There is the best possible reason for Leaving the EU...
From memory TSE/Mike have adopted a thread header policy too.
Also from memory - if this topic kicks off as it has done before - we will all regret it.
An addendum is an item to be added and addenda are a set of such items. Agendum an item to be discussed and agenda a set. Memorandum an item to be noted or remembered, referendum an item to be referred (to the people). Referenda are therefore a set of items to be referred (together), hence a multi-question referendum. Agendas are multiple agenda for a series of meetings or, if there is only one item for each meeting, agendums. Hence referendums are for a series of referred (single) questions. Also worth noting that it isn't a Latin word in the first place, having been conjured up for the first time by the Swiss (as I vaguely recall) in the 18th or 19th century.0 -
compared to other polling companies, yes.BudG said:Well this poll could put the cat amongst the betting pigeons
Elabe
Macron 24 (+0.5)
Le Pen 23 ( +0.5)
Fillon 19.5 (-0.5)
Melenchon 18 (-0.5)
Not much movement, but the gap is the widest we have seen for a while between the top and bottom 2
http://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/17042017_bfmtv_lexpress_intentions-de-vote-presidentielles-vague-9.pdf0 -
go on then - which attitudes and policies are they.PClipp said:
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?
Shall we talk of Labour party attitudes?
Lets not bother about the Lib Dems as they change depending on the audience - I say that as someone who has voted Lib Dems more than I have voted Tory.
The tories are the best of the bunch right now, happens to be the case that the voters seem to agree.0 -
I don't deal in hypotheticals - I don't believe the UK will break up. But if the Scots choose to leave that's up to them.williamglenn said:
If Brexit leads to the break up of the UK, will you see it as having been futile? In the long run do you want to see a Europe without the EU?Charles said:
Eu-fanatics like you don't get it.williamglenn said:
More fundamentally it's a microcosm of why there's little rationale for leaving the EU at all given that ongoing membership of the EMA implies that we will still be subject to binding decisions by the European Commission.kle4 said:
Even if what you say is true, there's little rationale for shifting the EU parliament between Brussels and Strasbourg either, but they still do itCharles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.
A binding decision of the ECJ on a practical matter like a ruling of the EMA matters not a jot.
The UK being outvoted on QMV or caught by ECJ judicial creep is important
As for Europe I want to see independent states cooperating across the continent. If some of those states choose to oil their sovereignty then, again, that's a matter for their respective voters0 -
MoE but has the Melenchon momentum finally run out of steam?BudG said:Well this poll could put the cat amongst the betting pigeons
Elabe
Macron 24 (+0.5)
Le Pen 23 ( +0.5)
Fillon 19.5 (-0.5)
Melenchon 18 (-0.5)
Not much movement, but the gap is the widest we have seen for a while between the top and bottom 2
http://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/17042017_bfmtv_lexpress_intentions-de-vote-presidentielles-vague-9.pdf0 -
NE Fife, Mings old seat, probably yes. Edinburgh West much more difficult. The Lib Dems are bleeding support to the Tories in the capital.rcs1000 said:
They were even more well distributed in the Holyrood elections last year. Their vote barely budged, but they won two more FPTP constituencies at a canter*.Danny565 said:
Yeah, Scotland is the one part of the UK where the LibDems have always had a very efficiently-distributed vote, and where FPTP works very much in their favour: witness 1997 where they came a pretty distant 4th in votes in Scotland, yet came 2nd on seats.aschamberlain said:
The Scottish Lib Dems have areas of massive strength and areas where there are hardly any members/activists. The Western half of the central belt has always been particularly weak for the party (apart from Greenock & East Dunbartonshire). In some areas all it takes is for a few key members to move away or get involved in other things and you can end up with no organisation at all.
That being said, the Scottish LDs should be able to make decent gains in the traditional strongholds where they're the best organised opposition to the SNP. My feeling is that the Tories are going to make significant progress elsewhere and Labour are going to have an unpleasant night. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out in terms of control of the councils.
* And were there an election tomorrow, I'd expect them to pick up the Westminster versions of both these constituencies (NE Fife, Edinburgh West) from the SNP.0 -
I don't find anything particularly complicated about drawing a line between the variety of views you are exposed to and your own personal viewpoint and how that evolves over time.IanB2 said:
You are over-complicating things. When you have dreams and ideals but not property or money, you lean left. When you have property and money but, dreams and ideals, not so much, you lean right. When you have a governing party pandering to the elderly, those on the other end of the deal aren't likely to be quite so impressed. Teachers have nothing whatsoever to do with it.
I sort of see it as a personal Overton window that widens with age (and also tacks right), which is why I find the whole safe space and no platform and SJW thing that has overtaken universities in the last few years so disturbing.
In fact, you illustrate a good point by mentioning dreams and ideals.
One of the failings of the right has always been in conceding the moral ground. We say "well, in a perfect world with hopes and dreams we'd all be socialist, but we have to be pragmatic so here's capitalism".
One of the things the left is terrified of (if my social feeds are anything to go by) is the way the right is no longer willing to cede the moral ground and is willing to argue that no, it is right wing ideology that is moral and just and left wing ideology that is destructive and harmful.
I am not saying it is, by the way. Just making an observation about where the argument seems to be trending in the social media age.0 -
As compared to the 2015 election, it's a gain from SNP :-)Alistair said:
Edinburgh West a gain from Independent surely?rcs1000 said:
They were even more well distributed in the Holyrood elections last year. Their vote barely budged, but they won two more FPTP constituencies at a canter*.Danny565 said:
Yeah, Scotland is the one part of the UK where the LibDems have always had a very efficiently-distributed vote, and where FPTP works very much in their favour: witness 1997 where they came a pretty distant 4th in votes in Scotland, yet came 2nd on seats.aschamberlain said:
The Scottish Lib Dems have areas of massive strength and areas where there are hardly any members/activists. The Western half of the central belt has always been particularly weak for the party (apart from Greenock & East Dunbartonshire). In some areas all it takes is for a few key members to move away or get involved in other things and you can end up with no organisation at all.
That being said, the Scottish LDs should be able to make decent gains in the traditional strongholds where they're the best organised opposition to the SNP. My feeling is that the Tories are going to make significant progress elsewhere and Labour are going to have an unpleasant night. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out in terms of control of the councils.
* And were there an election tomorrow, I'd expect them to pick up the Westminster versions of both these constituencies (NE Fife, Edinburgh West) from the SNP.0 -
Currently it is just a fantasy thoughrcs1000 said:
As compared to the 2015 election, it's a gain from SNP :-)Alistair said:
Edinburgh West a gain from Independent surely?rcs1000 said:
They were even more well distributed in the Holyrood elections last year. Their vote barely budged, but they won two more FPTP constituencies at a canter*.Danny565 said:
Yeah, Scotland is the one part of the UK where the LibDems have always had a very efficiently-distributed vote, and where FPTP works very much in their favour: witness 1997 where they came a pretty distant 4th in votes in Scotland, yet came 2nd on seats.aschamberlain said:
The Scottish Lib Dems have areas of massive strength and areas where there are hardly any members/activists. The Western half of the central belt has always been particularly weak for the party (apart from Greenock & East Dunbartonshire). In some areas all it takes is for a few key members to move away or get involved in other things and you can end up with no organisation at all.
That being said, the Scottish LDs should be able to make decent gains in the traditional strongholds where they're the best organised opposition to the SNP. My feeling is that the Tories are going to make significant progress elsewhere and Labour are going to have an unpleasant night. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out in terms of control of the councils.
* And were there an election tomorrow, I'd expect them to pick up the Westminster versions of both these constituencies (NE Fife, Edinburgh West) from the SNP.0 -
The Conservative vote dipped, albeit marginally, last year in Edinburgh Western (which is 80% of the parliamentary Edinburgh West constituency), while the LDs increased 14% (almost all at the expense of Labour).DavidL said:
NE Fife, Mings old seat, probably yes. Edinburgh West much more difficult. The Lib Dems are bleeding support to the Tories in the capital.rcs1000 said:
They were even more well distributed in the Holyrood elections last year. Their vote barely budged, but they won two more FPTP constituencies at a canter*.Danny565 said:
Yeah, Scotland is the one part of the UK where the LibDems have always had a very efficiently-distributed vote, and where FPTP works very much in their favour: witness 1997 where they came a pretty distant 4th in votes in Scotland, yet came 2nd on seats.aschamberlain said:
The Scottish Lib Dems have areas of massive strength and areas where there are hardly any members/activists. The Western half of the central belt has always been particularly weak for the party (apart from Greenock & East Dunbartonshire). In some areas all it takes is for a few key members to move away or get involved in other things and you can end up with no organisation at all.
That being said, the Scottish LDs should be able to make decent gains in the traditional strongholds where they're the best organised opposition to the SNP. My feeling is that the Tories are going to make significant progress elsewhere and Labour are going to have an unpleasant night. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out in terms of control of the councils.
* And were there an election tomorrow, I'd expect them to pick up the Westminster versions of both these constituencies (NE Fife, Edinburgh West) from the SNP.
It wasn't even particularly close: 42% for the LDs vs 34% for the SNP.0 -
I'll have a fiver on it being in Europe. I don't really expect it to stay over here.rkrkrk said:
Fancy betting a fiver on it then?chestnut said:
I think it's improbable and certainly wouldn't be the EU's wish.
The practicalities of setting up an office for 1,000 staff and then finding a location that a very diverse, multinational workforce are happy to relocate to may be problematic in some way.
I wonder at what point the smaller and more peripheral nations will notice that the EU's 'City' gains from Brexit all seem to be landing in very few places in the EU.0 -
Seems like the authorities haven't a f##king clue...but appeared they have now ruled out the claims of right wing extremists as also being fake and not the culprits.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/17/borussia-dortmund-blasts-letters-claiming-responsibility-fake
0 -
There is probably something in what you say, noting of course that changing the battlefield doesn't win the original battle.kyf_100 said:
I don't find anything particularly complicated about drawing a line between the variety of views you are exposed to and your own personal viewpoint and how that evolves over time.IanB2 said:
You are over-complicating things. When you have dreams and ideals but not property or money, you lean left. When you have property and money but, dreams and ideals, not so much, you lean right. When you have a governing party pandering to the elderly, those on the other end of the deal aren't likely to be quite so impressed. Teachers have nothing whatsoever to do with it.
I sort of see it as a personal Overton window that widens with age (and also tacks right), which is why I find the whole safe space and no platform and SJW thing that has overtaken universities in the last few years so disturbing.
In fact, you illustrate a good point by mentioning dreams and ideals.
One of the failings of the right has always been in conceding the moral ground. We say "well, in a perfect world with hopes and dreams we'd all be socialist, but we have to be pragmatic so here's capitalism".
One of the things the left is terrified of (if my social feeds are anything to go by) is the way the right is no longer willing to cede the moral ground and is willing to argue that no, it is right wing ideology that is moral and just and left wing ideology that is destructive and harmful.
I am not saying it is, by the way. Just making an observation about where the argument seems to be trending in the social media age.0 -
The LibDems improved their vote share in Lothian regional list in 2016 compared to 2011.rcs1000 said:
The Conservative vote dipped, albeit marginally, last year in Edinburgh Western (which is 80% of the parliamentary Edinburgh West constituency), while the LDs increased 14% (almost all at the expense of Labour).DavidL said:
NE Fife, Mings old seat, probably yes. Edinburgh West much more difficult. The Lib Dems are bleeding support to the Tories in the capital.rcs1000 said:
They were even more well distributed in the Holyrood elections last year. Their vote barely budged, but they won two more FPTP constituencies at a canter*.Danny565 said:
Yeah, Scotland is the one part of the UK where the LibDems have always had a very efficiently-distributed vote, and where FPTP works very much in their favour: witness 1997 where they came a pretty distant 4th in votes in Scotland, yet came 2nd on seats.aschamberlain said:
The Scottish Lib Dems have areas of massive strength and areas where there are hardly any members/activists. The Western half of the central belt has always been particularly weak for the party (apart from Greenock & East Dunbartonshire). In some areas all it takes is for a few key members to move away or get involved in other things and you can end up with no organisation at all.
That being said, the Scottish LDs should be able to make decent gains in the traditional strongholds where they're the best organised opposition to the SNP. My feeling is that the Tories are going to make significant progress elsewhere and Labour are going to have an unpleasant night. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out in terms of control of the councils.
* And were there an election tomorrow, I'd expect them to pick up the Westminster versions of both these constituencies (NE Fife, Edinburgh West) from the SNP.
It wasn't even particularly close: 42% for the LDs vs 34% for the SNP.
I don't know where DavidL is getting his impression from.0 -
Maybe, too early to tell. I would probably be a bit wary of this one poll as it was done on Easter Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday. That could cause discrepancies.DavidL said:
MoE but has the Melenchon momentum finally run out of steam?BudG said:Well this poll could put the cat amongst the betting pigeons
Elabe
Macron 24 (+0.5)
Le Pen 23 ( +0.5)
Fillon 19.5 (-0.5)
Melenchon 18 (-0.5)
Not much movement, but the gap is the widest we have seen for a while between the top and bottom 2
http://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/17042017_bfmtv_lexpress_intentions-de-vote-presidentielles-vague-9.pdf
0 -
LDs are historically rubbish at handing seats on to a new candidate. Once the incumbent goes, the whole show goes to pot. But the big exception to this rule is Edinburgh West - Donald Gorrie, John Barrett and Mike Crockart all sat as Lib Dems, one after the other. That implies (for Lib Dems, at any rate) a constituency organisation running like a Swiss watch.0
-
I know it is bad form to pick up on typos, but I thought that was a beauty (assuming it was a typo of course).Charles said:
I don't deal in hypotheticals - I don't believe the UK will break up. But if the Scots choose to leave that's up to them.williamglenn said:
If Brexit leads to the break up of the UK, will you see it as having been futile? In the long run do you want to see a Europe without the EU?Charles said:
Eu-fanatics like you don't get it.williamglenn said:
More fundamentally it's a microcosm of why there's little rationale for leaving the EU at all given that ongoing membership of the EMA implies that we will still be subject to binding decisions by the European Commission.kle4 said:
Even if what you say is true, there's little rationale for shifting the EU parliament between Brussels and Strasbourg either, but they still do itCharles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.
A binding decision of the ECJ on a practical matter like a ruling of the EMA matters not a jot.
The UK being outvoted on QMV or caught by ECJ judicial creep is important
As for Europe I want to see independent states cooperating across the continent. If some of those states choose to oil their sovereignty then, again, that's a matter for their respective voters0 -
Other groups with a possible motive cited in German media reports include criminal betting syndicates or a foreign intelligence service trying to destabilise the political climate ahead of federal elections in September.FrancisUrquhart said:Seems like the authorities haven't a f##king clue...but appeared they have now ruled out the claims of right wing extremists as also being fake and not the culprits.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/17/borussia-dortmund-blasts-letters-claiming-responsibility-fake
Which foreign intelligence service could they have in mind?0 -
I know Trump and Merkel don't get along, but seems a bit extreme...williamglenn said:
Other groups with a possible motive cited in German media reports include criminal betting syndicates or a foreign intelligence service trying to destabilise the political climate ahead of federal elections in September.FrancisUrquhart said:Seems like the authorities haven't a f##king clue...but appeared they have now ruled out the claims of right wing extremists as also being fake and not the culprits.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/17/borussia-dortmund-blasts-letters-claiming-responsibility-fake
Which foreign intelligence service could they have in mind?0 -
Autocorrect rather than a typo but it was too good to changeFysics_Teacher said:
I know it is bad form to pick up on typos, but I thought that was a beauty (assuming it was a typo of course).Charles said:
I don't deal in hypotheticals - I don't believe the UK will break up. But if the Scots choose to leave that's up to them.williamglenn said:
If Brexit leads to the break up of the UK, will you see it as having been futile? In the long run do you want to see a Europe without the EU?Charles said:
Eu-fanatics like you don't get it.williamglenn said:
More fundamentally it's a microcosm of why there's little rationale for leaving the EU at all given that ongoing membership of the EMA implies that we will still be subject to binding decisions by the European Commission.kle4 said:
Even if what you say is true, there's little rationale for shifting the EU parliament between Brussels and Strasbourg either, but they still do itCharles said:
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.
A binding decision of the ECJ on a practical matter like a ruling of the EMA matters not a jot.
The UK being outvoted on QMV or caught by ECJ judicial creep is important
As for Europe I want to see independent states cooperating across the continent. If some of those states choose to oil their sovereignty then, again, that's a matter for their respective voters
0 -
?!?!?!williamglenn said:
Other groups with a possible motive cited in German media reports include criminal betting syndicates or a foreign intelligence service trying to destabilise the political climate ahead of federal elections in September.FrancisUrquhart said:Seems like the authorities haven't a f##king clue...but appeared they have now ruled out the claims of right wing extremists as also being fake and not the culprits.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/17/borussia-dortmund-blasts-letters-claiming-responsibility-fake
Which foreign intelligence service could they have in mind?
Jesus.
Do we just have a list and you cross them off?0 -
"Jeremy Corbyn’s office has made a formal complaint about a Labour MP after he questioned the party’s communications strategy.
Neil Coyle said he will not be “intimidated” after the “absurd” complaint was made against him to party officials.
The Bermondsey and Old Southwark MP was reported after he raised concerns about an apparent lack of Brexit briefings for MPs and the party’s slow response to breaking news stories.
He has accused allies of Mr Corbyn of trying to silence the leader’s critics."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/labour-mp-reported-party-officials-jeremy-corbyns-office-communications/0 -
Bloody hell, good job I have an alibi!williamglenn said:
Other groups with a possible motive cited in German media reports include criminal betting syndicates or a foreign intelligence service trying to destabilise the political climate ahead of federal elections in September.FrancisUrquhart said:Seems like the authorities haven't a f##king clue...but appeared they have now ruled out the claims of right wing extremists as also being fake and not the culprits.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/17/borussia-dortmund-blasts-letters-claiming-responsibility-fake
Which foreign intelligence service could they have in mind?0 -
Mr. 86, hmm.
Surely: "Good job I'm not a criminal"? 0 -
With a name like yours you must either be a member of s criminal betting syndicate or MI5*tlg86 said:
Bloody hell, good job I have an alibi!williamglenn said:
Other groups with a possible motive cited in German media reports include criminal betting syndicates or a foreign intelligence service trying to destabilise the political climate ahead of federal elections in September.FrancisUrquhart said:Seems like the authorities haven't a f##king clue...but appeared they have now ruled out the claims of right wing extremists as also being fake and not the culprits.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/17/borussia-dortmund-blasts-letters-claiming-responsibility-fake
Which foreign intelligence service could they have in mind?
* although not mutually exclusive, I suppose0 -
Jesus' intelligence service would be the Vatican so are you implying that we are dealing with the Illuminati and that RCS needs to change his surname from Smithson to Langdon?TheWhiteRabbit said:
?!?!?!williamglenn said:
Other groups with a possible motive cited in German media reports include criminal betting syndicates or a foreign intelligence service trying to destabilise the political climate ahead of federal elections in September.FrancisUrquhart said:Seems like the authorities haven't a f##king clue...but appeared they have now ruled out the claims of right wing extremists as also being fake and not the culprits.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/17/borussia-dortmund-blasts-letters-claiming-responsibility-fake
Which foreign intelligence service could they have in mind?
Jesus.
Do we just have a list and you cross them off?0 -
Just to be clear, I'm not a criminal - or a spook - but I am on Monaco for the Champions League at 150-1.0
