And here's me thinking that criminal betting was betting on crime, just like we bet on politics.
The rise of the 'Ndrangheta provided a good return on 'which italian mafia syndicate would become the most powerful' bets. But I think the Camorra have a promising future.
The Mexican cartel markets are far too fluid to place any long term bets though.
Any predicted dates yet for the return of direct rule in NI? At present they seem to be at the ' the other side are inflexible, bu which I mean won't do as we want, which is totally different from us' stage.
And here's me thinking that criminal betting was betting on crime, just like we bet on politics.
The rise of the 'Ndrangheta provided a good return on 'which italian mafia syndicate would become the most powerful' bets. But I think the Camorra have a promising future.
The Mexican cartel markets are far too fluid to place any long term bets though.
I think he's talking about which banks will move where post Brexit
The Scottish Lib Dems have areas of massive strength and areas where there are hardly any members/activists. The Western half of the central belt has always been particularly weak for the party (apart from Greenock & East Dunbartonshire). In some areas all it takes is for a few key members to move away or get involved in other things and you can end up with no organisation at all.
That being said, the Scottish LDs should be able to make decent gains in the traditional strongholds where they're the best organised opposition to the SNP. My feeling is that the Tories are going to make significant progress elsewhere and Labour are going to have an unpleasant night. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out in terms of control of the councils.
Yeah, Scotland is the one part of the UK where the LibDems have always had a very efficiently-distributed vote, and where FPTP works very much in their favour: witness 1997 where they came a pretty distant 4th in votes in Scotland, yet came 2nd on seats.
They were even more well distributed in the Holyrood elections last year. Their vote barely budged, but they won two more FPTP constituencies at a canter*.
* And were there an election tomorrow, I'd expect them to pick up the Westminster versions of both these constituencies (NE Fife, Edinburgh West) from the SNP.
NE Fife, Mings old seat, probably yes. Edinburgh West much more difficult. The Lib Dems are bleeding support to the Tories in the capital.
The Conservative vote dipped, albeit marginally, last year in Edinburgh Western (which is 80% of the parliamentary Edinburgh West constituency), while the LDs increased 14% (almost all at the expense of Labour).
It wasn't even particularly close: 42% for the LDs vs 34% for the SNP.
There's a lot of pro-Union tactical voting happening in Edinburgh. The Conservatives, Lib Dems and Labour won a constituency seat each at Holyrood on that tactical voting.
Any predicted dates yet for the return of direct rule in NI? At present they seem to be at the ' the other side are inflexible, bu which I mean won't do as we want, which is totally different from us' stage.
Doesn't the SoS have discretion to bring together a 'novel' coalition, even something unlikely like the SDLP, Sinn Fein, Alliance and (I think) UUP? If it can command a majority, and agree on a few things, it might be viable for a limited period while the other Unionists go through their current difficulties (caused by blowing almost £500 per person on a corrupt energy subsidy.).
Any predicted dates yet for the return of direct rule in NI? At present they seem to be at the ' the other side are inflexible, bu which I mean won't do as we want, which is totally different from us' stage.
Doesn't the SoS have discretion to bring together a 'novel' coalition, even something unlikely like the SDLP, Sinn Fein, Alliance and (I think) UUP? If it can command a majority, and agree on a few things, it might be viable for a limited period while the other Unionists go through their current difficulties (caused by blowing almost £500 per person on a corrupt energy subsidy.).
Mr. kle4, bah. The Popes claim to be Vicar of Christ, when they're bishops of a city he never visited, and claim an ancient title that belonged to an empire that doesn't exist any more.
I might as well claim to be William Marshal's best mate and Holy Roman Emperor.
Edited extra bit: shade grumpy, perhaps, but Francis' comments after the Charlie Hebdo murders really pissed me off.
Mr. kle4, bah. The Popes claim to be Vicar of Christ, when they're bishops of a city he never visited, and claim an ancient title that belonged to an empire that doesn't exist any more.
I might as well claim to be William Marshal's best mate and Holy Roman Emperor.
Edited extra bit: shade grumpy, perhaps, but Francis' comments after the Charlie Hebdo murders really pissed me off.
Was that when he said something like if you insult someone's religion, expect to get punched?
MoE but has the Melenchon momentum finally run out of steam?
In the first round it's all about shoring up your core vote. In the second round about being the least objectionable to the most number of people. Macron is the odd one out because he doesn't have a core vote to shore up. However he does have distinct message - that France can progress by embracing the modern world. The three others all think the modern world is a problem. Macron has to hope that a quarter of French men and women agree sufficiently to vote for him. If they do, he will probably win by being less objectionable then the other one. I can't see Melenchon voters switching to Fillon or vice versa. It's doubtful Le Pen has detoxified her party enough to win half the votes.
Any predicted dates yet for the return of direct rule in NI? At present they seem to be at the ' the other side are inflexible, bu which I mean won't do as we want, which is totally different from us' stage.
Doesn't the SoS have discretion to bring together a 'novel' coalition, even something unlikely like the SDLP, Sinn Fein, Alliance and (I think) UUP? If it can command a majority, and agree on a few things, it might be viable for a limited period while the other Unionists go through their current difficulties (caused by blowing almost £500 per person on a corrupt energy subsidy.).
No - Norfolk has had a minority Tory administration for 12 months.
I'm out of date then ... my excuse, I live on the English/Welsh border.
But 2-3 yrs. for another coalition would give the DUP ages to sort themselves out and maybe return to being the main party of govt. under another leader. Ideally someone who can get on with Sinn Fein in a spirit of jollity, like Paisley and McGuiness somehow managed to do.
I have every sympathy with those whose lives are thrown into uncertainty by the Brexit vote. OTOH, I'm old enough to remember that people used to retire to Spain long before we joined the EU. How did they manage, I wonder?
FPT London is quite right to fight for those EU Agencies (even though we are highly unlikely to retain them). It's part of the bargaining process.
I imagine HMG will say "OK, you want to take these Agencies from us? Then give us 20% of the assets of all the other EU Agencies, across Europe, which the UK has helped to fund and staff since the UK acceded in 1973."
It's a perfectly fair request: in a divorce you divide the assets. It will be fiendishly complicated and messy and it is possible - just possible - an accord could be reached whereby the UK kept, say, the EMA in return for not making a claim on the other agencies - much easier and cleaner for all.
And even if the EU refuses (as they very probably will) it will concentrate minds in Brussels. The UK has claims on the EU, as well as vice versa.
What garbage, how can you exit the EU but want their agenies based in London. Only a nutjob would even consider that is remotely likely. You will have your Brexit Agency and that will be it, Billy no mates.
Comments
The Mexican cartel markets are far too fluid to place any long term bets though.
Mrs C, bah. Jesus never even visited Rome.
Norfolk CC is I think run by a coalition of the L.Dems, UKIP, Green and Labour
https://www.localgov.co.uk/Rainbow-coalition-established-at-Norfolk-CC/27951
http://chronicle.gi/2017/04/why-spain-would-like-a-soft-brexit-for-the-uk/
On a point of pedantry, shouldn't that be 'perched on the southern tip of the Iberian Peninsula'?
I might as well claim to be William Marshal's best mate and Holy Roman Emperor.
Edited extra bit: shade grumpy, perhaps, but Francis' comments after the Charlie Hebdo murders really pissed me off.
But 2-3 yrs. for another coalition would give the DUP ages to sort themselves out and maybe return to being the main party of govt. under another leader. Ideally someone who can get on with Sinn Fein in a spirit of jollity, like Paisley and McGuiness somehow managed to do.
Rancid comments after the murder of cartoonists for drawing Mohammed.
I have every sympathy with those whose lives are thrown into uncertainty by the Brexit vote. OTOH, I'm old enough to remember that people used to retire to Spain long before we joined the EU. How did they manage, I wonder?