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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The canvas data that proved to be spot on in Richmond suggests Labour could be in trouble in Manchester Gorton
For all the speculation on Labour’s polling collapse there’s only one thing that really matters – how the party performs in actual elections and the first real test of that is May 4th which includes, of course, the Manchester Gorton by-election where they are defending a majority of 24k.
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First like Farron!0
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Isn't Gorton Labour's ninth safest seat?
Farron to be Leader of the Opposition?0 -
If, as the canvass data suggest, Labour is on 51%, that would still be a clear win.0
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Of course, there's an even more delightful bar chart in my post-race analysis of Bahrain:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis-2017.html0 -
In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!0 -
Spinning here.0
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Mr. G, I think Macron-Fillon would be the best result for me. As long as Melenchon fails and Macron progresses, I'll be satisfied.0
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Macron-Fillon would be interesting. Baroin has already been named by Fillon as his choice for PM, but he's apparently also manoeuvring behind the scenes to be Macron's PM too (according to Le Canard Enchainé).0
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Yes you do seem to appear on every thread with an anti Lib Dem prepared quote . More telling is that you are incapable of giving a pro Labour quote .Jonathan said:Spinning here.
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Mr. Glenn, was unaware of that. If it were Macron-Fillon, would Baroin have to overtly support one?
If Le Pen fails to reach the second round, that'll look like quite a failure.0 -
Would be happy with that result Mr D.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, I think Macron-Fillon would be the best result for me. As long as Melenchon fails and Macron progresses, I'll be satisfied.
A word of warning, however, Opinionway has been 2-3 points below the rest of the polls for Melenchon for the past 2-3 polls. So gird your loins for better Melenchon poll results form other pollsters.0 -
A 20% lead is "in trouble"?
Well, it's a view.0 -
He's overtly supporting Fillon as he's one of the main power brokers of LR. The Macron thing is just gossip at the moment.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, was unaware of that. If it were Macron-Fillon, would Baroin have to overtly support one?
If Le Pen fails to reach the second round, that'll look like quite a failure.0 -
True , but will the final 2 and a half weeks campaign change those figures .Sean_F said:If, as the canvass data suggest, Labour is on 51%, that would still be a clear win.
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In the Manchester Gorton by-election, the Lib Dems would much prefer a previous Labour voter switching to Lib Dem than a former Conservative voter since it not only increases the Lib Dem vote but reduces the Labour vote.
A Labour to Lib Dem switcher is wort twice a Conservative to Lib Dem switcher.
Lib Dem canvassers should concentrate on Labour voters.
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Mr. G, a Loiner's loins are always girded.
Sidenote: someone from Leeds is called a Loiner. In The Last Kingdom, old place names are given before modern ones, and Leeds apparently used to be called Loidis, which may explain the demonym (had to check, was a bit surprised it's not 'denonym', but there we are).
Edited extra bit: Mr. Glenn, cheers for that post.0 -
'The 51-31 LAB-LD split is dramatically closer than at GE2015 and suggests a high degree of momentum.'
I wouldn't say it's all their fault.0 -
"name for a people" so from "demos", I assume?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, a Loiner's loins are always girded.
Sidenote: someone from Leeds is called a Loiner. In The Last Kingdom, old place names are given before modern ones, and Leeds apparently used to be called Loidis, which may explain the demonym (had to check, was a bit surprised it's not 'denonym', but there we are).0 -
The canvassing effort should be directed according to the product of propensity to switch and value of the vote (itself the product of likelihood of turning out and either 1 or 2 depending on the previous vote). You are only considering one of the three factors.David_Evershed said:In the Manchester Gorton by-election, the Lib Dems would much prefer a previous Labour voter switching to Lib Dem than a former Conservative voter since it not only increases the Lib Dem vote but reduces the Labour vote.
A Labour to Lib Dem swotcher is wort twice a Conservative to Lib Dem switcher.
Lib Dem canvassers should concentrate on Labour voters.0 -
Mr. Quidder, yeah, I was guessing it'd come from 'denizen'.0
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It's also virtually identical to the 2010 result.FrankBooth said:'The 51-31 LAB-LD split is dramatically closer than at GE2015 and suggests a high degree of momentum.'
I wouldn't say it's all their fault.0 -
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.0 -
Momentum is everything.MarkSenior said:
True , but will the final 2 and a half weeks campaign change those figures .Sean_F said:If, as the canvass data suggest, Labour is on 51%, that would still be a clear win.
Nevertheless IMO this currently feels like a decent second. It now depends on how hard Labour tries to lose, over the next couple of weeks.0 -
If I were a Conservative voting here I'd either stick with my party or vote Labour. I'm very happy with the current leader of the Labour party.0
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Lib Dems should know where the Labour voters live. But don't know where those with a propensity to switch live.IanB2 said:
The canvassing effort should be directed according to the product of propensity to switch and value of the vote (itself the product of likelihood of turning out and either 1 or 2 depending on the previous vote). You are only considering one of the three factors.David_Evershed said:In the Manchester Gorton by-election, the Lib Dems would much prefer a previous Labour voter switching to Lib Dem than a former Conservative voter since it not only increases the Lib Dem vote but reduces the Labour vote.
A Labour to Lib Dem swotcher is wort twice a Conservative to Lib Dem switcher.
Lib Dem canvassers should concentrate on Labour voters.0 -
Is momentum really a logical concept in election campaigns?IanB2 said:
Momentum is everything.MarkSenior said:
True , but will the final 2 and a half weeks campaign change those figures .Sean_F said:If, as the canvass data suggest, Labour is on 51%, that would still be a clear win.
Nevertheless IMO this currently feels like a decent second. It now depends on how hard Labour tries to lose, over the next couple of weeks.
You show "momentum" by having persuaded voters to switch to you - but why should that in itself persuade more voters (who weren't persuaded by whatever it is you did to persuade the other voters to switch) to switch?0 -
It's because they now believe a LD victory is possible, whereas before they didn't.ThreeQuidder said:
Is momentum really a logical concept in election campaigns?IanB2 said:
Momentum is everything.MarkSenior said:
True , but will the final 2 and a half weeks campaign change those figures .Sean_F said:If, as the canvass data suggest, Labour is on 51%, that would still be a clear win.
Nevertheless IMO this currently feels like a decent second. It now depends on how hard Labour tries to lose, over the next couple of weeks.
You show "momentum" by having persuaded voters to switch to you - but why should that in itself persuade more voters (who weren't persuaded by whatever it is you did to persuade the other voters to switch) to switch?0 -
I wonder to what extent, that the LibDems having a having a By-election that seems to be just with in reach of winning, will divert LibDem activists, away form LG elections and make the gains in numbers of councillors less than they would over wise be?David_Evershed said:In the Manchester Gorton by-election, the Lib Dems would much prefer a previous Labour voter switching to Lib Dem than a former Conservative voter since it not only increases the Lib Dem vote but reduces the Labour vote.
A Labour to Lib Dem switcher is wort twice a Conservative to Lib Dem switcher.
Lib Dem canvassers should concentrate on Labour voters.0 -
There are definitely feedback loops. People like to be on the winning side. If you look like your winning, more people will back you (and be happy to say so).ThreeQuidder said:
Is momentum really a logical concept in election campaigns?IanB2 said:
Momentum is everything.MarkSenior said:
True , but will the final 2 and a half weeks campaign change those figures .Sean_F said:If, as the canvass data suggest, Labour is on 51%, that would still be a clear win.
Nevertheless IMO this currently feels like a decent second. It now depends on how hard Labour tries to lose, over the next couple of weeks.
You show "momentum" by having persuaded voters to switch to you - but why should that in itself persuade more voters (who weren't persuaded by whatever it is you did to persuade the other voters to switch) to switch?
The reverse is true. Labour are locked in a vicious circle.0 -
The FN core vote is not enough. She needs the generic anti-establishment vote to get her across the line into the run off and with the rise of Melenchon and relatively high-profile of a few others, she's lost that USP.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.0 -
Quite possibly, Macron';s support has always been regarded as a bit flakey. However, Fillon is probably just as likely to take votes from Le Pen, as the vote transfer in the head to head between Macron and Le Pen shows there is a fair sized transfer between Fillon and Le Pen votes. I think Fillon is pretty likely to make it to final two now and it's probably a toss-up between Le and Macron as to who he meets.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.
However, do not discount BOTH Macron and Le Pen losing out and not going through. Melenchon is still 4 points away in this poll, but as I said below, Opinionway is a very poor pollster for him. I predict he will be closer in the next few polls form other pollsters.0 -
Assume the lib dem returns are as accurate as last time.
1.23 for a party with a 20% lead and over 50% seems good to me.0 -
'tis the herd instinct, once again. Fundamental to the human condition. And related to the discussion about the UNS we were having on the last thread.Jonathan said:
There are definitely feedback loops. People like to be on the winning side. If you look like your winning, more people will back you (and be happy to say so).ThreeQuidder said:
Is momentum really a logical concept in election campaigns?IanB2 said:
Momentum is everything.MarkSenior said:
True , but will the final 2 and a half weeks campaign change those figures .Sean_F said:If, as the canvass data suggest, Labour is on 51%, that would still be a clear win.
Nevertheless IMO this currently feels like a decent second. It now depends on how hard Labour tries to lose, over the next couple of weeks.
You show "momentum" by having persuaded voters to switch to you - but why should that in itself persuade more voters (who weren't persuaded by whatever it is you did to persuade the other voters to switch) to switch?
The reverse is true. Labour are locked in a vicious circle.0 -
Telling in what way? I think despite the obvious national difficulties , some CLPs are working this election very hard (more so than 13 and 09). Given low turnout in CC elections, it might just take the edge off the national figures.MarkSenior said:
Yes you do seem to appear on every thread with an anti Lib Dem prepared quote . More telling is that you are incapable of giving a pro Labour quote .Jonathan said:Spinning here.
WRT the LDs. I currently don't buy they're doing much special at the moment beyond local pockets of activity. I am not sure Farron is capable of cutting through. I am not sure what they're for and given Labours current agony I think they should be on more than 12%.0 -
Mr. B2, also related to betting patterns.0
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If they have good records from the days when they held most of the local wards, then they will. (Edit - except of course that in a seat like this, voter turnover will be very high)David_Evershed said:
Lib Dems should know where the Labour voters live. But don't know where those with a propensity to switch live.IanB2 said:
The canvassing effort should be directed according to the product of propensity to switch and value of the vote (itself the product of likelihood of turning out and either 1 or 2 depending on the previous vote). You are only considering one of the three factors.David_Evershed said:In the Manchester Gorton by-election, the Lib Dems would much prefer a previous Labour voter switching to Lib Dem than a former Conservative voter since it not only increases the Lib Dem vote but reduces the Labour vote.
A Labour to Lib Dem swotcher is wort twice a Conservative to Lib Dem switcher.
Lib Dem canvassers should concentrate on Labour voters.
Right now I suggest propensity to switch is correlated with not voting Labour (or LibDem) last time, and with voting Remain (including Labour voters) in the refendum.0 -
Yes - and I also wonder if any of their strategists [BigRich said:
I wonder to what extent, that the LibDems having a having a By-election that seems to be just with in reach of winning, will divert LibDem activists, away form LG elections and make the gains in numbers of councillors less than they would over wise be?David_Evershed said:In the Manchester Gorton by-election, the Lib Dems would much prefer a previous Labour voter switching to Lib Dem than a former Conservative voter since it not only increases the Lib Dem vote but reduces the Labour vote.
A Labour to Lib Dem switcher is wort twice a Conservative to Lib Dem switcher.
Lib Dem canvassers should concentrate on Labour voters.
} have thought through the likely effect on their polling if Labour get rid of JC and become more centrist. Truth is they are locked in a strategy that gives them a few good headlines while keeping them very firmly as a distant third party. 0 -
And stock and currency marketsMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B2, also related to betting patterns.
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I don't see a better strategy that offers a quicker or easier exit route from the last of those? Not wanting to start from here doesn't work.felix said:
Yes - and I also wonder if any of their strategists [BigRich said:
I wonder to what extent, that the LibDems having a having a By-election that seems to be just with in reach of winning, will divert LibDem activists, away form LG elections and make the gains in numbers of councillors less than they would over wise be?David_Evershed said:In the Manchester Gorton by-election, the Lib Dems would much prefer a previous Labour voter switching to Lib Dem than a former Conservative voter since it not only increases the Lib Dem vote but reduces the Labour vote.
A Labour to Lib Dem switcher is wort twice a Conservative to Lib Dem switcher.
Lib Dem canvassers should concentrate on Labour voters. } have thought through the likely effect on their polling if Labour get rid of JC and become more centrist. Truth is they are locked in a strategy that gives them a few good headlines while keeping them very firmly as a distant third party.0 -
None as their are no local elections in the Greater Manchester area only the Mayoral election .BigRich said:
I wonder to what extent, that the LibDems having a having a By-election that seems to be just with in reach of winning, will divert LibDem activists, away form LG elections and make the gains in numbers of councillors less than they would over wise be?David_Evershed said:In the Manchester Gorton by-election, the Lib Dems would much prefer a previous Labour voter switching to Lib Dem than a former Conservative voter since it not only increases the Lib Dem vote but reduces the Labour vote.
A Labour to Lib Dem switcher is wort twice a Conservative to Lib Dem switcher.
Lib Dem canvassers should concentrate on Labour voters.
Numbers of Scottish local election candidates posted for you on last thread .0 -
Her vote is being squeezed both by Melenchon's rise on the one side and also by Fillon on the other.SeanT said:
What is driving Le Pen's decline? Presumably the rise of Melenchon. With similar economic views and no nazi past.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.
Amazed Le Pen is still regarded as odds on to come top in the first round, with the polling as tight as it is and with her continuing downward momentum.0 -
FPT:
Echoing PJ O'Rourke's comment about the US election, Marine Le Pen is extreme, but she's extreme within the normal parameters, whereas Marion is an off-the-charts fruit loop.rcs1000 said:There's a very interesting split in the FN between Marine Le Pen, on the one hand, and Marion Maréchal-Le Pen on the other. MLP is very much an economic populist, and sees big business as the biggest threat to France. MML is a traditional Catholic nationalist, who is much more business friendly and dreams of reinventing the EU as the European Christian Union.
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The latter is because, so far, May is doing a decent job of keeping everyone from Brexit loons through Tory remainers inside her big tent. Largely by not letting anyone look outside.Jonathan said:
Telling in what way? I think despite the obvious national difficulties , some CLPs are working this election very hard (more so than 13 and 09). Given low turnout in CC elections, it might just take the edge off the national figures.MarkSenior said:
Yes you do seem to appear on every thread with an anti Lib Dem prepared quote . More telling is that you are incapable of giving a pro Labour quote .Jonathan said:Spinning here.
WRT the LDs. I currently don't buy they're doing much special at the moment beyond local pockets of activity. I am not sure Farron is capable of cutting through. I am not sure what they're for and given Labours current agony I think they should be on more than 12%.
And it is Labour with the "what for?" problem!0 -
FPT:
@IanB2
I am eminently relaxed about Tories holding Mid Dorset. Mrs May will be more popular than Cameron here.
There are two grammar schools in the constituency, voters are generally centrist/traditional, there is little conspicuous wealth (compared, say, to Poole where there are much richer areas and much poorer areas).
Lots of Leave sentiment too.
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As I said, on balance I probably agree with you. Your assumption about the UKIP vote is way off, however.Mortimer said:FPT:
@IanB2
I am eminently relaxed about Tories holding Mid Dorset. Mrs May will be more popular than Cameron here.
There are two grammar schools in the constituency, voters are generally centrist/traditional, there is little conspicuous wealth (compared, say, to Poole where there are much richer areas and much poorer areas).
Lots of Leave sentiment too.
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In this case, though, with Labour still apparently at 51%, why should they lose voters to the LDs, and why should third party voters coalesce around them as it wouldn't (apparently) take them over the line?Jonathan said:
There are definitely feedback loops. People like to be on the winning side. If you look like your winning, more people will back you (and be happy to say so).ThreeQuidder said:
Is momentum really a logical concept in election campaigns?IanB2 said:
Momentum is everything.MarkSenior said:
True , but will the final 2 and a half weeks campaign change those figures .Sean_F said:If, as the canvass data suggest, Labour is on 51%, that would still be a clear win.
Nevertheless IMO this currently feels like a decent second. It now depends on how hard Labour tries to lose, over the next couple of weeks.
You show "momentum" by having persuaded voters to switch to you - but why should that in itself persuade more voters (who weren't persuaded by whatever it is you did to persuade the other voters to switch) to switch?
The reverse is true. Labour are locked in a vicious circle.0 -
Are you local Ian? The reason I ask is that immigration/Europe was the most oft mentioned national issue on the doorstep for me in all Dorset seats that I've canvassed in during the last 3 elections...IanB2 said:
As I said, on balance I probably agree with you. Your assumption about the UKIP vote is way off, however.Mortimer said:FPT:
@IanB2
I am eminently relaxed about Tories holding Mid Dorset. Mrs May will be more popular than Cameron here.
There are two grammar schools in the constituency, voters are generally centrist/traditional, there is little conspicuous wealth (compared, say, to Poole where there are much richer areas and much poorer areas).
Lots of Leave sentiment too.0 -
Re that YouGov.
A few interesting points
The Tories lead every age group except the 18-24s
Tories are 49% ahead of Lab with the overs 65s,
Overs 65s VI: Con 61, Lab 12, LD 11, UKIP 11
So Labour are a gnat's fart away from being fourth with the overs 65s
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Scottish subsample klaxon
SNP 44, Com 26, Lab 13. LD 10
Tories also lead Labour in the North by 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/0 -
Sky just now showing a BVA poll
Fillon 23
Macron 22
Le Pen 20
Melenchon 20
Is this a new poll as I didnt realise Fillon has taken a lead ( if this poll is to be believed)0 -
One effect the release of this information seems to have had in Richmond is a very successful squeeze of the Labour vote. Will that work when they are "only" 20 percentage points behind? At the very least the incentive to switch will be less.0
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It is unlikely that Mid Dorset will be a constituency after the boundary revision . We will have to see what end result the BC come up with . Their first stab of a bits left over from Bournemouth , Poole and Christchurch is unlikely to stand up either .Mortimer said:FPT:
@IanB2
I am eminently relaxed about Tories holding Mid Dorset. Mrs May will be more popular than Cameron here.
There are two grammar schools in the constituency, voters are generally centrist/traditional, there is little conspicuous wealth (compared, say, to Poole where there are much richer areas and much poorer areas).
Lots of Leave sentiment too.0 -
LD canvass data in Richmond Park had it Zac 46% LDs 43% so still significantly closer than they have it in Gorton plus the LDs held Richmond Park from 1997 to 2010 unlike Gorton
https://mobile.twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/8026277912922439680 -
Many thanks for the numbers Mark, really use full,MarkSenior said:
None as their are no local elections in the Greater Manchester area only the Mayoral election .BigRich said:
I wonder to what extent, that the LibDems having a having a By-election that seems to be just with in reach of winning, will divert LibDem activists, away form LG elections and make the gains in numbers of councillors less than they would over wise be?David_Evershed said:In the Manchester Gorton by-election, the Lib Dems would much prefer a previous Labour voter switching to Lib Dem than a former Conservative voter since it not only increases the Lib Dem vote but reduces the Labour vote.
A Labour to Lib Dem switcher is wort twice a Conservative to Lib Dem switcher.
Lib Dem canvassers should concentrate on Labour voters.
Numbers of Scottish local election candidates posted for you on last thread .
Good point about there not being LG election in Manchester, that should stop it being a big factor. But could it still have some effect I think a lot of LibDem activists use telephone canvasing these days, so they did not need to live near the seat0 -
Still surprising so many are going for Fillon, isn't it?0
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Mr Eagles, can i just clarify, is that the special Tories twice as popular as Labour in scotland klaxon?TheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov.
A few interesting points
The Tories lead every age group except the 18-24s
Tories are 49% ahead of Lab with the overs 65s,
Overs 65s VI: Con 61, Lab 12, LD 11, UKIP 11
So Labour are a gnat's fart away from being fourth with the overs 65s
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Scottish subsample klaxon
SNP 44, Com 26, Lab 13. LD 10
Tories also lead Labour in the North by 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/
Gordon Brown, Dougie Alexander, Jim Murphy, Kezia Dugdale, your boys are taking a hell of a beating...0 -
A good shout. I've stuck another fiver on Melenchon just to balance the books. Now slightly green on him.SeanT said:
What is driving Le Pen's decline? Presumably the rise of Melenchon. With similar economic views and no nazi past.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.
I still think there may be a shy Le Pen vote as there was a shy Brexit / Trump vote that the polls aren't picking up, but it really doesn't matter as every indicator states she'll lose in the run off, shy vote or not.
I've dated quite a few Frenchies and they're all wildly left wing. Economically speaking Le Pen may appeal to them but short of the dyed in the wool Front National types her platform just won't appeal to the French mindset.
If nothing else, they're all too proud to admit when they're wrong and a vote for Le Pen would be a massive admission of failure in so many ways...0 -
Can any "neutral" give us any idea of the level of activity in Gorton at the moment - by any of the parties? What's happened to George Galloway? How many leaflets have gone out, is any canvassing taking place, are posters going up, that sort of thing? OK, it's been the Easter weekend, which might make things a bit more abnormal, but some idea about the campaigning might be helpful. All I have seen so far is one Lib Dem leaflet (thanks to this site) and a tweet complaining that the Lib Dem leafleters were leaving gates open. That's all a long way short of an attack on the Winter Palace.....0
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That was with 5 days to go in Richmond , the Gorton figures were with 3 weeks to go . May or may not be significant .HYUFD said:LD canvass data in Richmond Park actually had it Zac 46% LDs 43% so still significantly closer than they have it in Gorton plus the LDs held Richmon Park from 1997 to 2010 unlike Gorton
https://mobile.twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/8026277912922439680 -
Nothing more than feeling, but right from the start he has seemed more in tune with Middle France than the flashy and panny Macron.Morris_Dancer said:Still surprising so many are going for Fillon, isn't it?
Still see Fillon doing this...0 -
Those figures were from much closer to the election, weren't they?HYUFD said:LD canvass data in Richmond Park had it Zac 46% LDs 43% so still significantly closer than they have it in Gorton plus the LDs held Richmond Park from 1997 to 2010 unlike Gorton
https://mobile.twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/8026277912922439680 -
Yes the Tories are twice as popular as Labour in Scotland.Mortimer said:
Mr Eagles, can i just clarify, is that the special Tories twice as popular as Labour in scotland klaxon?TheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov.
A few interesting points
The Tories lead every age group except the 18-24s
Tories are 49% ahead of Lab with the overs 65s,
Overs 65s VI: Con 61, Lab 12, LD 11, UKIP 11
So Labour are a gnat's fart away from being fourth with the overs 65s
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Scottish subsample klaxon
SNP 44, Com 26, Lab 13. LD 10
Tories also lead Labour in the North by 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/
Gordon Brown, Dougie Alexander, Jim Murphy, Kezia Dugdale, your boys are taking a hell of a beating...
Caveat: Subsample of 1900 -
Meanwhile new OpinionWay has Fillon now in with a real chance of making the runoff against Macron or Le Pen, with his base high turnout pensioners he is worth a punt in my view
Le Pen 22%
Macron 22%
Fillon 21%
Melenchon 18%
http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_10 -
Those numbers are wrong aren't they? Fillon and Macron have been transposed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just now showing a BVA poll
Fillon 23
Macron 22
Le Pen 20
Melenchon 20
Is this a new poll as I didnt realise Fillon has taken a lead ( if this poll is to be believed)
http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2017/04/14/2556558-sondage-bva-depeche-macron-pen-melenchon-fillon-coude-coude.html0 -
From Galloway's tweet feed he has been busy sending out a fake local newsheet "Manchester News", riding in a Blair Apocalypse battlebus whilst finding time to address local men in mosque before retiring to a curry house.augustus_carp said:Can any "neutral" give us any idea of the level of activity in Gorton at the moment - by any of the parties? What's happened to George Galloway? How many leaflets have gone out, is any canvassing taking place, are posters going up, that sort of thing? OK, it's been the Easter weekend, which might make things a bit more abnormal, but some idea about the campaigning might be helpful. All I have seen so far is one Lib Dem leaflet (thanks to this site) and a tweet complaining that the Lib Dem leafleters were leaving gates open. That's all a long way short of an attack on the Winter Palace.....
The Labour candidate is being trolled by a funny parody a/c.0 -
I doubt the LDs focus leaflets in Gorton can really overcome a 20% margin in the way they could a 3% margin but we will seeMarkSenior said:
That was with 5 days to go in Richmond , the Gorton figures were with 3 weeks to go . May or may not be significant .HYUFD said:LD canvass data in Richmond Park actually had it Zac 46% LDs 43% so still significantly closer than they have it in Gorton plus the LDs held Richmon Park from 1997 to 2010 unlike Gorton
https://mobile.twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/8026277912922439680 -
Those are the numbers on Sky and maybe they are wrong. I was surprised to see Fillon in the lead.williamglenn said:
Those numbers are wrong aren't they? Fillon and Macron have been transposed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just now showing a BVA poll
Fillon 23
Macron 22
Le Pen 20
Melenchon 20
Is this a new poll as I didnt realise Fillon has taken a lead ( if this poll is to be believed)
http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2017/04/14/2556558-sondage-bva-depeche-macron-pen-melenchon-fillon-coude-coude.html0 -
Thank you, Doctor! I shall seek them out immediately.dr_spyn said:
From Galloway's tweet feed he has been busy sending out a fake local newsheet "Manchester News", riding in a Blair Apocalypse battlebus whilst finding time to address local men in mosque before retiring to a curry house.augustus_carp said:Can any "neutral" give us any idea of the level of activity in Gorton at the moment - by any of the parties? What's happened to George Galloway? How many leaflets have gone out, is any canvassing taking place, are posters going up, that sort of thing? OK, it's been the Easter weekend, which might make things a bit more abnormal, but some idea about the campaigning might be helpful. All I have seen so far is one Lib Dem leaflet (thanks to this site) and a tweet complaining that the Lib Dem leafleters were leaving gates open. That's all a long way short of an attack on the Winter Palace.....
The Labour candidate is being trolled by a funny parody a/c.0 -
interesting. Time to top up on Fillon?HYUFD said:Meanwhile new OpinionWay has Fillon now in with a real chance of making the runoff against Macron or Le Pen, with his base high turnout pensioners he is worth a punt in my view
Le Pen 22%
Macron 22%
Fillon 21%
Melenchon 18%
http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_10 -
Melenchon does best of the 4 with lower turnout under 35s and worst with high turnout over 35s, he is least likely of the 4 to go through to the runoff in my viewBudG said:
Quite possibly, Macron';s support has always been regarded as a bit flakey. However, Fillon is probably just as likely to take votes from Le Pen, as the vote transfer in the head to head between Macron and Le Pen shows there is a fair sized transfer between Fillon and Le Pen votes. I think Fillon is pretty likely to make it to final two now and it's probably a toss-up between Le and Macron as to who he meets.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.
However, do not discount BOTH Macron and Le Pen losing out and not going through. Melenchon is still 4 points away in this poll, but as I said below, Opinionway is a very poor pollster for him. I predict he will be closer in the next few polls form other pollsters.0 -
BVA numbers actually areBig_G_NorthWales said:
Those are the numbers on Sky and maybe they are wrong. I was surprised to see Fillon in the lead.williamglenn said:
Those numbers are wrong aren't they? Fillon and Macron have been transposed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just now showing a BVA poll
Fillon 23
Macron 22
Le Pen 20
Melenchon 20
Is this a new poll as I didnt realise Fillon has taken a lead ( if this poll is to be believed)
http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2017/04/14/2556558-sondage-bva-depeche-macron-pen-melenchon-fillon-coude-coude.html
Macron 23%
Le Pen 22%
Fillon 20%
Melenchon 20%
http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2017/04/14/2556558-sondage-bva-depeche-macron-pen-melenchon-fillon-coude-coude.html0 -
Fillon has gone from 4.8 to 4.3 on Betfair within the last hour or so.rottenborough said:
interesting. Time to top up on Fillon?HYUFD said:Meanwhile new OpinionWay has Fillon now in with a real chance of making the runoff against Macron or Le Pen, with his base high turnout pensioners he is worth a punt in my view
Le Pen 22%
Macron 22%
Fillon 21%
Melenchon 18%
http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_10 -
The three GB polls that finished fieldwork on 13 April gave the Tories 24%, 26% and 30% in Scotland - broadly in line with Panelbase's estimate of 28% in their Scotland-only 1k sample from 19 March.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes the Tories are twice as popular as Labour in Scotland.Mortimer said:
Mr Eagles, can i just clarify, is that the special Tories twice as popular as Labour in scotland klaxon?TheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov.
A few interesting points
The Tories lead every age group except the 18-24s
Tories are 49% ahead of Lab with the overs 65s,
Overs 65s VI: Con 61, Lab 12, LD 11, UKIP 11
So Labour are a gnat's fart away from being fourth with the overs 65s
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Scottish subsample klaxon
SNP 44, Com 26, Lab 13. LD 10
Tories also lead Labour in the North by 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/
Gordon Brown, Dougie Alexander, Jim Murphy, Kezia Dugdale, your boys are taking a hell of a beating...
Caveat: Subsample of 190
The equivalent figures for SLAB are 15%, 13% and 10%, and the SNP 43%, 44% and 48% respectively.
Also noteworthy that Con lead in London by 12% with YouGov and 10% with ComRes. (Opinium don't seem to split out London.) That is however out of line with the YouGov London-only poll from 28 March, which gave Labour a three-point advantage in the capital.0 -
NeilVW said:
The three GB polls that finished fieldwork on 13 April gave the Tories 24%, 26% and 30% in Scotland - broadly in line with Panelbase's estimate of 28% in their Scotland-only 1k sample from 19 March.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes the Tories are twice as popular as Labour in Scotland.Mortimer said:
Mr Eagles, can i just clarify, is that the special Tories twice as popular as Labour in scotland klaxon?TheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov.
A few interesting points
The Tories lead every age group except the 18-24s
Tories are 49% ahead of Lab with the overs 65s,
Overs 65s VI: Con 61, Lab 12, LD 11, UKIP 11
So Labour are a gnat's fart away from being fourth with the overs 65s
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Scottish subsample klaxon
SNP 44, Com 26, Lab 13. LD 10
Tories also lead Labour in the North by 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/
Gordon Brown, Dougie Alexander, Jim Murphy, Kezia Dugdale, your boys are taking a hell of a beating...
Caveat: Subsample of 190
The equivalent figures for SLAB are 15%, 13% and 10%, and the SNP 43%, 44% and 48% respectively.
Also noteworthy that Con lead in London by 12% with YouGov and 10% with ComRes. (Opinium don't seem to split out London.) That is however out of line with the YouGov London-only poll from 28 March, which gave Labour a three-point advantage in the capital.
Scotland seems to have become a Presidential system where people just look to the local party leaders rather than the parties.0 -
But the Lib Dems did hold the vast majority of the council seats in the Gorton constituency, didn`t they? Not quite the Parliamentary seat, but close...HYUFD said:
I doubt the LDs focus leaflets in Gorton can really overcome a 20% margin in the way they could a 3% margin but we will seeMarkSenior said:
That was with 5 days to go in Richmond , the Gorton figures were with 3 weeks to go . May or may not be significant .HYUFD said:LD canvass data in Richmond Park actually had it Zac 46% LDs 43% so still significantly closer than they have it in Gorton plus the LDs held Richmon Park from 1997 to 2010 unlike Gorton
https://mobile.twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/802627791292243968
According to anecdotal evidence, the Labour vote in Gorton is incredibly soft. And in general the Tory vote is also much softer than some commentators on here seem to think.0 -
Assuming the canvassing data is correct, what examples are there - by-election or otherwise - of a 20% deficit being overturned in two and a half weeks?
The LDs may be on course for an impressive increase in vote share and a clear second, but no more than that.0 -
On the Brexit question, right decision is on 45 vs wrong on 43. Doesn't tally with the Telegraph poll but I guess it's all margin of error stuff.0
-
Independent election observers in Turkey are saying vote was bent as 9 bob note and result should be cancelled.0
-
Perhaps she is unaware that Homeland finished last night.williamglenn said:0 -
HYUFD said:
I doubt the LDs focus leaflets in Gorton can really overcome a 20% margin in the way they could a 3% margin but we will seeMarkSenior said:
That was with 5 days to go in Richmond , the Gorton figures were with 3 weeks to go . May or may not be significant .HYUFD said:LD canvass data in Richmond Park actually had it Zac 46% LDs 43% so still significantly closer than they have it in Gorton plus the LDs held Richmon Park from 1997 to 2010 unlike Gorton
https://mobile.twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/802627791292243968
Labour managed to get out their vote in Stoke so will be looking to do the same in Gorton.0 -
Split of anti-Lab vote between Tory and UKIP really helped in Stoke. The fact that all the anti-Corbyn vote can coalesce around one candidate means that Gorton is different. Still a big ask, but I think Mike is right to say a LD victory is now possible.David_Evershed said:HYUFD said:
I doubt the LDs focus leaflets in Gorton can really overcome a 20% margin in the way they could a 3% margin but we will seeMarkSenior said:
That was with 5 days to go in Richmond , the Gorton figures were with 3 weeks to go . May or may not be significant .HYUFD said:LD canvass data in Richmond Park actually had it Zac 46% LDs 43% so still significantly closer than they have it in Gorton plus the LDs held Richmon Park from 1997 to 2010 unlike Gorton
https://mobile.twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/802627791292243968
Labour managed to get out their vote in Stoke so will be looking to do the same in Gorton.0 -
Where does he get his R2 votes from?SeanT said:I reckon Fillon is going to win this, now. Remarkable, seeing as he was an inch away from bowing out entirely, a few weeks back.
0 -
It happened at Bermondsey in Feb 1983 - and Greenwich in Feb 1987.Essexit said:Assuming the canvassing data is correct, what examples are there - by-election or otherwise - of a 20% deficit being overturned in two and a half weeks?
The LDs may be on course for an impressive increase in vote share and a clear second, but no more than that.0 -
Against Le Pen, pretty much everyone else. Against Macron he'd be in trouble.SouthamObserver said:
Where does he get his R2 votes from?SeanT said:I reckon Fillon is going to win this, now. Remarkable, seeing as he was an inch away from bowing out entirely, a few weeks back.
0 -
How will it concentrate minds? The EU will merely say EU agencies must be in the EU and subject to EU law.SeanT said:FPT London is quite right to fight for those EU Agencies (even though we are highly unlikely to retain them). It's part of the bargaining process.
I imagine HMG will say "OK, you want to take these Agencies from us? Then give us 20% of the assets of all the other EU Agencies, across Europe, which the UK has helped to fund and staff since the UK acceded in 1973."
It's a perfectly fair request: in a divorce you divide the assets. It will be fiendishly complicated and messy and it is possible - just possible - an accord could be reached whereby the UK kept, say, the EMA in return for not making a claim on the other agencies - much easier and cleaner for all.
And even if the EU refuses (as they very probably will) it will concentrate minds in Brussels. The UK has claims on the EU, as well as vice versa.
0 -
Oh dear....the left falling out of love with Justin AirHead...
Stop swooning over Justin Trudeau. The man is a disaster for the planet
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/17/stop-swooning-justin-trudeau-man-disaster-planet0 -
Fillon is very compromised beyond his core and would be depending on votes from the centre and the left. I am not sure he'd get them. Le Pen can shift left on economics, Fillon can't. Against Macron Fillon would not have a chance.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Against Le Pen, pretty much everyone else. Against Macron he'd be in trouble.SouthamObserver said:
Where does he get his R2 votes from?SeanT said:I reckon Fillon is going to win this, now. Remarkable, seeing as he was an inch away from bowing out entirely, a few weeks back.
0 -
Fair enough, thanks.justin124 said:
It happened at Bermondsey in Feb 1983 - and Greenwich in Feb 1987.Essexit said:Assuming the canvassing data is correct, what examples are there - by-election or otherwise - of a 20% deficit being overturned in two and a half weeks?
The LDs may be on course for an impressive increase in vote share and a clear second, but no more than that.0 -
Is that claim Tru, deau?FrancisUrquhart said:Oh dear....the left falling out of love with Justin AirHead...
Stop swooning over Justin Trudeau. The man is a disaster for the planet
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/17/stop-swooning-justin-trudeau-man-disaster-planet0 -
The most recent poll has him losing 70-30 to Macron. That's going to be almost impossible to overcome. Macron isn't a weak candidate.SeanT said:
I think it will be him versus either Macron or Le Pen.SouthamObserver said:
Where does he get his R2 votes from?SeanT said:I reckon Fillon is going to win this, now. Remarkable, seeing as he was an inch away from bowing out entirely, a few weeks back.
He'll get all the rightwing votes versus Macron, and all the anti-Le Pen votes versus Le Pen.0 -
Will left-wing and working-class voters really vote for Fillon, even against Le Pen?SeanT said:
I think it will be him versus either Macron or Le Pen.SouthamObserver said:
Where does he get his R2 votes from?SeanT said:I reckon Fillon is going to win this, now. Remarkable, seeing as he was an inch away from bowing out entirely, a few weeks back.
He'll get all the rightwing votes versus Macron, and all the anti-Le Pen votes versus Le Pen.
I'm not sure I could bring myself to do it.0 -
I wish I could be confident that Melenchon won't make the final two, it would make my Betfair position feel much more comfortable.SeanT said:
I think it will be him versus either Macron or Le Pen.SouthamObserver said:
Where does he get his R2 votes from?SeanT said:I reckon Fillon is going to win this, now. Remarkable, seeing as he was an inch away from bowing out entirely, a few weeks back.
He'll get all the rightwing votes versus Macron, and all the anti-Le Pen votes versus Le Pen.0 -
Le Pen is very strong in many former Communist/Socialist areas. I would not assume her backers are all free marketeers and wedded to fundamentally reordering the French state. If it's her v Fillon she may well be more appealling to Melenchon/Hamon supporters than him. Macron has a better chance of picking left-wing R2 votes up as he can tack left (as can she on economics). Fillon can't.SeanT said:
I think it will be him versus either Macron or Le Pen.SouthamObserver said:
Where does he get his R2 votes from?SeanT said:I reckon Fillon is going to win this, now. Remarkable, seeing as he was an inch away from bowing out entirely, a few weeks back.
He'll get all the rightwing votes versus Macron, and all the anti-Le Pen votes versus Le Pen.
0 -
Mine too.ThreeQuidder said:
I wish I could be confident that Melenchon won't make the final two, it would make my Betfair position feel much more comfortable.SeanT said:
I think it will be him versus either Macron or Le Pen.SouthamObserver said:
Where does he get his R2 votes from?SeanT said:I reckon Fillon is going to win this, now. Remarkable, seeing as he was an inch away from bowing out entirely, a few weeks back.
He'll get all the rightwing votes versus Macron, and all the anti-Le Pen votes versus Le Pen.0 -
Yeah, thank goodness for Labour in England that people won't be looking to party leaders for the locals.David_Evershed said:NeilVW said:
The three GB polls that finished fieldwork on 13 April gave the Tories 24%, 26% and 30% in Scotland - broadly in line with Panelbase's estimate of 28% in their Scotland-only 1k sample from 19 March.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes the Tories are twice as popular as Labour in Scotland.Mortimer said:
Mr Eagles, can i just clarify, is that the special Tories twice as popular as Labour in scotland klaxon?TheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov.
A few interesting points
The Tories lead every age group except the 18-24s
Tories are 49% ahead of Lab with the overs 65s,
Overs 65s VI: Con 61, Lab 12, LD 11, UKIP 11
So Labour are a gnat's fart away from being fourth with the overs 65s
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Scottish subsample klaxon
SNP 44, Com 26, Lab 13. LD 10
Tories also lead Labour in the North by 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/
Gordon Brown, Dougie Alexander, Jim Murphy, Kezia Dugdale, your boys are taking a hell of a beating...
Caveat: Subsample of 190
The equivalent figures for SLAB are 15%, 13% and 10%, and the SNP 43%, 44% and 48% respectively.
Also noteworthy that Con lead in London by 12% with YouGov and 10% with ComRes. (Opinium don't seem to split out London.) That is however out of line with the YouGov London-only poll from 28 March, which gave Labour a three-point advantage in the capital.
Scotland seems to have become a Presidential system where people just look to the local party leaders rather than the parties.
Wait a minute..0 -
There does seem to be little difference between the two, except Fillon is more of the French elite and more willing to break the post-war French social contract, while Le Pen actively defends it. The choice is a horrible one. I'd expect most centre and left voters to stay at hom, but for MLP to pick up at least as many Melenchon/Hamon transfers as Fillon gets from Macron.Danny565 said:
Will left-wing and working-class voters really vote for Fillon, even against Le Pen?SeanT said:
I think it will be him versus either Macron or Le Pen.SouthamObserver said:
Where does he get his R2 votes from?SeanT said:I reckon Fillon is going to win this, now. Remarkable, seeing as he was an inch away from bowing out entirely, a few weeks back.
He'll get all the rightwing votes versus Macron, and all the anti-Le Pen votes versus Le Pen.
I'm not sure I could bring myself to do it.
0 -
Lib Dems are in the fortunate position in Gorton of having the potential support of Lib Dem voters, Labour voters who want to get rid of Corbyn, as well as Tory voters who want to see Labour humiliated.
0 -
Hush, we're not supposed to speculate.williamglenn said:
Think how foolish these divots must feel.
https://twitter.com/hrtbps/status/8539133888455516160
