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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest locals: CON gains from LAB in Middlesbrough but makes heavy weather against the Greens in Dorset
Coulby Newham on Middlesbrough (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Conservatives 501 (38% +12%), Labour 468 (35% -3%), Independent 318 (24% +1%), Green Party 32 (2%, no candidate at last election) Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 33 (3%) on a swing of 7.5% from Lab to Con
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Comments
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First like the Tories in Middlesbrough.0
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Second
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It's a fiddle.RobD said:Second
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So, the thread is saying Venezuelan Corbynite Labour isn't in the catchment area of the electorate?0
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Gotta be in the right place at the right time. Namely the new thread, and firstwilliamglenn said:
It's a fiddle.RobD said:Second
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Looking very worrying. Something could kick off at any moment.SeanT said:Meanwhile
"World 'on the brink of thermo-nuclear war', as North Korea mulls test that could goad Trump"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-may-launch-strike-north-korea-goes-nuclear-weapons-test/0 -
The South is apparently about to rebel there. They want to declare an independent collective called Democratic South Venezuelan Corbynite Republic. Corbyn to be President for life, and to nominate his successor etc. Over 100% of their people support this according to the official spokesman.Morris_Dancer said:So, the thread is saying Venezuelan Corbynite Labour isn't in the catchment area of the electorate?
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“Piddle Valley” - I know the place very well, along with all the other piddles and puddles around the Dorchester area. Dorset has some real cracking place names and some quite charming little towns.0
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Mr. Omnium, thought that was serious until I reached the second line. I wouldn't be too surprised if civil war really did break out.
BBC had an interesting report on it, although I was amused when Stephen Sackur[sp] said "Our cover was blown."
Of course it was. You were with the mother of an incarcerated man, who was shouting at the prison. The guards aren't deaf.0 -
F1: now Sainz has engine woe. Think Toro Rosso has a Renault engine.
Hmm. More cooling may be required.0 -
For someone who's never been involved in politics, Trump understand power and psychology very well. He knows that being seen as an unpredictable loose cannon gives you leverage that you don't have if your responses are totally predictable. I'm sure his Syria strike and MOAB drop in Afghanistan were done with more than an eye on psyching out the loonies in Pyongyang.SeanT said:
The truly worrying thing is that Trump is not being entirely crazy. N Korea is on the verge of mastering ICBMs which could wipe out Los Angeles.rottenborough said:
Looking very worrying. Something could kick off at any moment.SeanT said:Meanwhile
"World 'on the brink of thermo-nuclear war', as North Korea mulls test that could goad Trump"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-may-launch-strike-north-korea-goes-nuclear-weapons-test/
Could any POTUS tolerate that, in the context of such a crazy, unbalanced regime? Arguably not. Arguably this is Obama's doing, and Trump has to clean up.
Tehran is a model of sanity compared to Pyongyang.0 -
No if they think you are prepared to strike first.SeanT said:
Agreed, but can you out-crazy the crazy dudes?williamglenn said:
For someone who's never been involved in politics, Trump understand power and psychology very well. He knows that being seen as an unpredictable loose cannon gives you leverage that you don't have if your responses are totally predictable. I'm sure his Syria strike and MOAB drop in Afghanistan were done with more than an eye on on psyching out the loonies in Pyongyang.SeanT said:
The truly worrying thing is that Trump is not being entirely crazy. N Korea is on the verge of mastering ICBMs which could wipe out Los Angeles.rottenborough said:
Looking very worrying. Something could kick off at any moment.SeanT said:Meanwhile
"World 'on the brink of thermo-nuclear war', as North Korea mulls test that could goad Trump"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-may-launch-strike-north-korea-goes-nuclear-weapons-test/
Could any POTUS tolerate that, in the context of such a crazy, unbalanced regime? Arguably not. Arguably this is Obama's doing, and Trump has to clean up.
Tehran is a model of sanity compared to Pyongyang.0 -
I think the solution is to surrender mainly. I know that sounds weird, but if the world surrenders to North Korea then what are they actually going to do?SeanT said:
The truly worrying thing is that Trump is not being entirely crazy. N Korea is on the verge of mastering ICBMs which could wipe out Los Angeles.rottenborough said:
Looking very worrying. Something could kick off at any moment.SeanT said:Meanwhile
"World 'on the brink of thermo-nuclear war', as North Korea mulls test that could goad Trump"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-may-launch-strike-north-korea-goes-nuclear-weapons-test/
Could any POTUS tolerate that, in the context of such a crazy, unbalanced regime? Arguably not. Arguably this is Obama's doing, and Trump has to clean up.
Tehran is a model of sanity compared to Pyongyang.
By surrendering we unleash the lawyers. North Korea, I'm guessing has few lawyers.
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Indeed. I've even heard that it is one of the few counties where bookshops are opening, rather than closing...SimonStClare said:“Piddle Valley” - I know the place very well, along with all the other piddles and puddles around the Dorchester area. Dorset has some real cracking place names and some quite charming little towns.
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Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?
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Could be an interesting night. Imagine if we saw the sort of realignments away from Labour that the polls are indicating.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?
Con gain Bootle?0 -
True hopefully China will step upto the plate and influence both sides.SeanT said:
We're about to find out.Yorkcity said:
No if they think you are prepared to strike first.SeanT said:
Agreed, but can you out-crazy the crazy dudes?williamglenn said:
For someone who's never been involved in politics, Trump understand power and psychology very well. He knows that being seen as an unpredictable loose cannon gives you leverage that you don't have if your responses are totally predictable. I'm sure his Syria strike and MOAB drop in Afghanistan were done with more than an eye on on psyching out the loonies in Pyongyang.SeanT said:
The truly worrying thing is that Trump is not being entirely crazy. N Korea is on the verge of mastering ICBMs which could wipe out Los Angeles.rottenborough said:
Looking very worrying. Something could kick off at any moment.SeanT said:Meanwhile
"World 'on the brink of thermo-nuclear war', as North Korea mulls test that could goad Trump"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-may-launch-strike-north-korea-goes-nuclear-weapons-test/
Could any POTUS tolerate that, in the context of such a crazy, unbalanced regime? Arguably not. Arguably this is Obama's doing, and Trump has to clean up.
Tehran is a model of sanity compared to Pyongyang.0 -
Two polls:
BVA
Macron 23 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melenchon 20 (+1)
http://orig.lanouvellerepublique.fr/France-Monde/Actualite/Politique/n/Contenus/Articles/2017/04/14/Sondage-BVA-PQR-Macron-devant-Le-Pen-Melenchon-et-Fillon-au-coude-a-coude-3068275
ifop daily rolling poll
Le Pen 23 (-0.5)
Macron 22.5 (=)
Fillon 19 (=)
Melenchon 19 (=)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_14-04-2017.pdf
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Mr. City, direct AIr China flights between Beijing and Pyongyang will no longer occur, it's been announced.
China is taking steps, but it remains to be seen how effective they'll be. The Chinese do not want either a failed state or a US ally right on its border.
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No, that’s nailed on for the Hero Kipper from Bootle,Mortimer said:
Could be an interesting night. Imagine if we saw the sort of realignments away from Labour that the polls are indicating.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?
Con gain Bootle?0 -
Or a smoking radioactive ruin.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. City, direct AIr China flights between Beijing and Pyongyang will no longer occur, it's been announced.
China is taking steps, but it remains to be seen how effective they'll be. The Chinese do not want either a failed state or a US ally right on its border.0 -
Narrowing still further.BudG said:Two polls:
BVA
Macron 23 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melenchon 20 (+1)
http://orig.lanouvellerepublique.fr/France-Monde/Actualite/Politique/n/Contenus/Articles/2017/04/14/Sondage-BVA-PQR-Macron-devant-Le-Pen-Melenchon-et-Fillon-au-coude-a-coude-3068275
ifop daily rolling poll
Le Pen 23 (-0.5)
Macron 22.5 (=)
Fillon 19 (=)
Melenchon 19 (=)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_14-04-2017.pdf0 -
Yup. For both of our sakes, long may it continue. I have to keep reminding my lovely but blinkered consulting friends this. They see books as inefficient. I suggest that books not running out of battery makes them more efficient.SeanT said:
Contrary to many perceptions, physical book sales are up, well up - in the USA as well as the UK. It's a bullish market.Mortimer said:
Indeed. I've even heard that it is one of the few counties where bookshops are opening, rather than closing...SimonStClare said:“Piddle Valley” - I know the place very well, along with all the other piddles and puddles around the Dorchester area. Dorset has some real cracking place names and some quite charming little towns.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2017/mar/17/london-book-fair-book-sales-up-ebooks-down
I also note, with some personal glee, the fact that those annoying readers are "still demanding" gripping psychological thrillers despite the fact that agents and publishers are "really bored of them".
Heh.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2017/mar/17/london-book-fair-book-sales-up-ebooks-down
Interestingly, just like streaming increased music sales because people then know they want the object, I frequently sell antiquarian books to people because they've seen a section of it online and now know they want it...0 -
Not sure it would work, Mr. Omnium. North Korea needs the state of war for its regime to survive, thus the regime needs the state of war. If it stopped existing then rather a lot of people would be asking, "Just so who is eating all the pies?"Omnium said:
I think the solution is to surrender mainly. I know that sounds weird, but if the world surrenders to North Korea then what are they actually going to do?SeanT said:
The truly worrying thing is that Trump is not being entirely crazy. N Korea is on the verge of mastering ICBMs which could wipe out Los Angeles.rottenborough said:
Looking very worrying. Something could kick off at any moment.SeanT said:Meanwhile
"World 'on the brink of thermo-nuclear war', as North Korea mulls test that could goad Trump"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-may-launch-strike-north-korea-goes-nuclear-weapons-test/
Could any POTUS tolerate that, in the context of such a crazy, unbalanced regime? Arguably not. Arguably this is Obama's doing, and Trump has to clean up.
Tehran is a model of sanity compared to Pyongyang.
By surrendering we unleash the lawyers. North Korea, I'm guessing has few lawyers.
Get rid of one fat pie eater and the world would be a better place* but the process of doing so seems to be beyond China and the USA combined.
*That is assuming the chap actually does have the power that is attributed to him. I am currently inclined to think he is more a figurehead and there are multiple competing groups behind the scenes (something like Henry VIII's court, perhaps).0 -
If fiction has taught me anything, it's that only a teenage girl, who is possibly a vampire and is torn between which of two hot boys to date, can bring down Kim Jong-un's regime.0
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Nixon had 'being seen as a a bit bonkers' as a foreign policy.SeanT said:
We're about to find out.Yorkcity said:
No if they think you are prepared to strike first.SeanT said:
Agreed, but can you out-crazy the crazy dudes?williamglenn said:
For someone who's never been involved in politics, Trump understand power and psychology very well. He knows that being seen as an unpredictable loose cannon gives you leverage that you don't have if your responses are totally predictable. I'm sure his Syria strike and MOAB drop in Afghanistan were done with more than an eye on on psyching out the loonies in Pyongyang.SeanT said:
The truly worrying thing is that Trump is not being entirely crazy. N Korea is on the verge of mastering ICBMs which could wipe out Los Angeles.rottenborough said:
Looking very worrying. Something could kick off at any moment.SeanT said:Meanwhile
"World 'on the brink of thermo-nuclear war', as North Korea mulls test that could goad Trump"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-may-launch-strike-north-korea-goes-nuclear-weapons-test/
Could any POTUS tolerate that, in the context of such a crazy, unbalanced regime? Arguably not. Arguably this is Obama's doing, and Trump has to clean up.
Tehran is a model of sanity compared to Pyongyang.0 -
Well you've entirely proved my point I think.HurstLlama said:
Not sure it would work, Mr. Omnium. North Korea needs the state of war for its regime to survive, thus the regime needs the state of war. If it stopped existing then rather a lot of people would be asking, "Just so who is eating all the pies?"Omnium said:
I think the solution is to surrender mainly. I know that sounds weird, but if the world surrenders to North Korea then what are they actually going to do?SeanT said:
The truly worrying thing is that Trump is not being entirely crazy. N Korea is on the verge of mastering ICBMs which could wipe out Los Angeles.rottenborough said:
Looking very worrying. Something could kick off at any moment.SeanT said:Meanwhile
"World 'on the brink of thermo-nuclear war', as North Korea mulls test that could goad Trump"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-may-launch-strike-north-korea-goes-nuclear-weapons-test/
Could any POTUS tolerate that, in the context of such a crazy, unbalanced regime? Arguably not. Arguably this is Obama's doing, and Trump has to clean up.
Tehran is a model of sanity compared to Pyongyang.
By surrendering we unleash the lawyers. North Korea, I'm guessing has few lawyers.
Get rid of one fat pie eater and the world would be a better place* but the process of doing so seems to be beyond China and the USA combined.
*That is assuming the chap actually does have the power that is attributed to him. I am currently inclined to think he is more a figurehead and there are multiple competing groups behind the scenes (something like Henry VIII's court, perhaps).
A chain of collapse in the pie community is far better than a chain of escalation in the nuclear club.0 -
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Thanks Morris not aware of that ,hope it has an effect.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. City, direct AIr China flights between Beijing and Pyongyang will no longer occur, it's been announced.
China is taking steps, but it remains to be seen how effective they'll be. The Chinese do not want either a failed state or a US ally right on its border.0 -
F1: Vettel's Ferrari ist kaput.
Prancing Horse looking a little lame.0 -
I was literally just about to ask about this. It does look very suspicious. If the actual result is as close as this with all four candidates within a point or two of each other I'd be very surprised.isam said:0 -
@SeanT, FPT
Intriguing and enlightening.
I genuinely don't know what the answer is. But I know that leftwingers who airily dismiss grammar schools are possibly as misinformed as rightwingers who blithely dismiss comprehensives. All systems are gamed. In London, especially so.
London schooling is NOT comprehensive. The remaining grammar schools, meanwhile, are becoming eerie racial ghettos. Henrietta Barnett is not alone.
Tentatively, I think it's at least worth experimenting with grammars in the most deprived areas of post-industrial England and Wales.
I don't think there is one answer, which is why I'm a pluralist when it comes to education. (Also, given that the state imposes, by force of law, well over a decade of daytime detention on every child, they should at least allow some variety...)
The other lesson to draw is that pretty well all education, unless your parents are wealthy, is local. National politicians would do well to remember that.0 -
Mr. City, np.
Mr. 86, oh, pish. Next you'll be saying that happened before the 2015 UK General Election.0 -
fpt
What with it being a holiday and all here's an aimless anecdote. I was in Oxford and as you do went on the bus tour. Saw the Four Candles Wetherspoons in honour of Ronnie Barker and all the various colleges and museums. As we'd go past each college the guide would give us a little information. That's Somerville College where former prime minister Margaret Thatcher studied, that's Lady Margaret Hall where current prime minister Theresa May studied and then as we came to the next building he stated 'and if there are any fans of Strictly Come Dancing aboard, that there is Keble College, where Ed Balls studied.'
I smiled as he said it but it felt a bit disconcerting to be reminded of how irrelevant the Labour Party has become. That obviously for most people, even on an Oxford bus tour, Ed Balls is the guy off Strictly, not a politician.0 -
Leave aside antiquarian books and staying on recently published ones, I now divide my reading into two parts. There are those books, usually non-fiction which require graphs/ maps/diagrams/pictures such books can only be properly read sitting up at a table or desk (and, for me, a notepad and pencils and highlighters to hand). Then there are those that can be read in bed for which an e-reader is ideal, not least because with a bit of ingenuity and a couple of bent coat hangers one need only lift one finger out from under the bedclothes to turn the page.Mortimer said:
Yup. For both of our sakes, long may it continue. I have to keep reminding my lovely but blinkered consulting friends this. They see books as inefficient. I suggest that books not running out of battery makes them more efficient.SeanT said:
Contrary to many perceptions, physical book sales are up, well up - in the USA as well as the UK. It's a bullish market.Mortimer said:
Indeed. I've even heard that it is one of the few counties where bookshops are opening, rather than closing...SimonStClare said:“Piddle Valley” - I know the place very well, along with all the other piddles and puddles around the Dorchester area. Dorset has some real cracking place names and some quite charming little towns.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2017/mar/17/london-book-fair-book-sales-up-ebooks-down
I also note, with some personal glee, the fact that those annoying readers are "still demanding" gripping psychological thrillers despite the fact that agents and publishers are "really bored of them".
Heh.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2017/mar/17/london-book-fair-book-sales-up-ebooks-down
Interestingly, just like streaming increased music sales because people then know they want the object, I frequently sell antiquarian books to people because they've seen a section of it online and now know they want it...0 -
Are you planning to write a 'gripping psychological thriller' then? Sorry....SeanT said:
Contrary to many perceptions, physical book sales are up, well up - in the USA as well as the UK. It's a bullish market.Mortimer said:
Indeed. I've even heard that it is one of the few counties where bookshops are opening, rather than closing...SimonStClare said:“Piddle Valley” - I know the place very well, along with all the other piddles and puddles around the Dorchester area. Dorset has some real cracking place names and some quite charming little towns.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2017/mar/17/london-book-fair-book-sales-up-ebooks-down
I also note, with some personal glee, the fact that those annoying readers are "still demanding" gripping psychological thrillers despite the fact that agents and publishers are "really bored of them".
Heh.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2017/mar/17/london-book-fair-book-sales-up-ebooks-down
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Afternoon, Mr.D.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Vettel's Ferrari ist kaput.
Prancing Horse looking a little lame.
Vettel is back out; he may just have been doing a fuel test and run dry - not unusual in FP.
Though the Ferrari comments don't necessarily support that.0 -
Is there an ergonomically decent e-reader with decent note taking functions ?HurstLlama said:
Leave aside antiquarian books and staying on recently published ones, I now divide my reading into two parts. There are those books, usually non-fiction which require graphs/ maps/diagrams/pictures such books can only be properly read sitting up at a table or desk (and, for me, a notepad and pencils and highlighters to hand). Then there are those that can be read in bed for which an e-reader is ideal, not least because with a bit of ingenuity and a couple of bent coat hangers one need only lift one finger out from under the bedclothes to turn the page.Mortimer said:
Yup. For both of our sakes, long may it continue. I have to keep reminding my lovely but blinkered consulting friends this. They see books as inefficient. I suggest that books not running out of battery makes them more efficient.SeanT said:
Contrary to many perceptions, physical book sales are up, well up - in the USA as well as the UK. It's a bullish market.Mortimer said:
Indeed. I've even heard that it is one of the few counties where bookshops are opening, rather than closing...SimonStClare said:“Piddle Valley” - I know the place very well, along with all the other piddles and puddles around the Dorchester area. Dorset has some real cracking place names and some quite charming little towns.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2017/mar/17/london-book-fair-book-sales-up-ebooks-down
I also note, with some personal glee, the fact that those annoying readers are "still demanding" gripping psychological thrillers despite the fact that agents and publishers are "really bored of them".
Heh.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2017/mar/17/london-book-fair-book-sales-up-ebooks-down
Interestingly, just like streaming increased music sales because people then know they want the object, I frequently sell antiquarian books to people because they've seen a section of it online and now know they want it...
Essential for non-fiction.
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As a non-French speaker I'm following this from a distance but I wouldn't be surprised if the narrative over the last few weeks has been about Melenchon doing well and lo and behold Melenchon comes up in the polls. In 2015 the media narrative was that it was too close to call and the pollsters produced polls that confirmed that view. I wouldn't be surprised if that's happening in France.Sean_F said:0 -
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?0 -
Melenchon's surge started with an excellent first tv debate. Naturally that improved his support, he rose in the polls and people talked about him doing well. On to the second debate in which again he shone, added interest and support and of course people talked about him in the media. Now he has come within striking distance of being in the final two, there will be support from what's left of Hamon's support, who want their vote to count and also from those who want a free hit at the establishment candidates.tlg86 said:
As a non-French speaker I'm following this from a distance but I wouldn't be surprised if the narrative over the last few weeks has been about Melenchon doing well and lo and behold Melenchon comes up in the polls. In 2015 the media narrative was that it was too close to call and the pollsters produced polls that confirmed that view. I wouldn't be surprised if that's happening in France.Sean_F said:
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F1: rumour Red Bull has some upgrades. They *appear* closer, but practice is only that.
Verstappen reportedly fastest on super softs but that must be with heavy fuel.0 -
3% or 4% separating the four candidates is amazing - and the margin of error probably means that any two of them could be in the run off.BudG said:Two polls:
BVA
Macron 23 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melenchon 20 (+1)
http://orig.lanouvellerepublique.fr/France-Monde/Actualite/Politique/n/Contenus/Articles/2017/04/14/Sondage-BVA-PQR-Macron-devant-Le-Pen-Melenchon-et-Fillon-au-coude-a-coude-3068275
ifop daily rolling poll
Le Pen 23 (-0.5)
Macron 22.5 (=)
Fillon 19 (=)
Melenchon 19 (=)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_14-04-2017.pdf0 -
I doubt it, Mr.b., but then I am old and notes get made on paper usually when more than one source is open. I don't know how I could study and make make notes on the same screen. Youngsters might manage but I am buggered if I know how.Nigelb said:
Is there an ergonomically decent e-reader with decent note taking functions ?HurstLlama said:
Leave aside antiquarian books and staying on recently published ones, I now divide my reading into two parts. There are those books, usually non-fiction which require graphs/ maps/diagrams/pictures such books can only be properly read sitting up at a table or desk (and, for me, a notepad and pencils and highlighters to hand). Then there are those that can be read in bed for which an e-reader is ideal, not least because with a bit of ingenuity and a couple of bent coat hangers one need only lift one finger out from under the bedclothes to turn the page.Mortimer said:
Yup. For both of our sakes, long may it continue. I have to keep reminding my lovely but blinkered consulting friends this. They see books as inefficient. I suggest that books not running out of battery makes them more efficient.SeanT said:
Contrary to many perceptions, physical book sales are up, well up - in the USA as well as the UK. It's a bullish market.Mortimer said:
Indeed. I've even heard that it is one of the few counties where bookshops are opening, rather than closing...SimonStClare said:“Piddle Valley” - I know the place very well, along with all the other piddles and puddles around the Dorchester area. Dorset has some real cracking place names and some quite charming little towns.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2017/mar/17/london-book-fair-book-sales-up-ebooks-down
I also note, with some personal glee, the fact that those annoying readers are "still demanding" gripping psychological thrillers despite the fact that agents and publishers are "really bored of them".
Heh.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2017/mar/17/london-book-fair-book-sales-up-ebooks-down
Interestingly, just like streaming increased music sales because people then know they want the object, I frequently sell antiquarian books to people because they've seen a section of it online and now know they want it...
Essential for non-fiction.
I have just had to replace my kindle, the last one died after a long and useful life. I am struggling with the new one with its wretched touch screen and no apparent way of organising books.0 -
A different view:
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Le Pen's support falling in just about every poll over the past two days and yet her price in the betting remains as solid as ever... amazing!!logical_song said:
3% or 4% separating the four candidates is amazing - and the margin of error probably means that any two of them could be in the run off.BudG said:Two polls:
BVA
Macron 23 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melenchon 20 (+1)
http://orig.lanouvellerepublique.fr/France-Monde/Actualite/Politique/n/Contenus/Articles/2017/04/14/Sondage-BVA-PQR-Macron-devant-Le-Pen-Melenchon-et-Fillon-au-coude-a-coude-3068275
ifop daily rolling poll
Le Pen 23 (-0.5)
Macron 22.5 (=)
Fillon 19 (=)
Melenchon 19 (=)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_14-04-2017.pdf
Can someone.. anyone (except HYUFD) betting on Le Pen, please explain why or how she is going to win this?0 -
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?0 -
Depends how bad Brexit goes.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?0 -
If Corbyn departs, 35% for Labour in 2020 would be a realistic possibility.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?0 -
It is possible that all the polls are systemically wrong (occasionally true, but often the refuge of a losing campaign). If so then we should also ignore any MOE changes. The polls cannot be systematically wrong yet these movements critical.BudG said:
Le Pen's support falling in just about every poll over the past two days and yet her price in the betting remains as solid as ever... amazing!!logical_song said:
3% or 4% separating the four candidates is amazing - and the margin of error probably means that any two of them could be in the run off.BudG said:Two polls:
BVA
Macron 23 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melenchon 20 (+1)
http://orig.lanouvellerepublique.fr/France-Monde/Actualite/Politique/n/Contenus/Articles/2017/04/14/Sondage-BVA-PQR-Macron-devant-Le-Pen-Melenchon-et-Fillon-au-coude-a-coude-3068275
ifop daily rolling poll
Le Pen 23 (-0.5)
Macron 22.5 (=)
Fillon 19 (=)
Melenchon 19 (=)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_14-04-2017.pdf
Can someone.. anyone (except HYUFD) betting on Le Pen, please explain why or how she is going to win this?0 -
Indeed, now just suppose it turns out to be Melenchon versus Le Pen. The EU's problems over Brexit would pale into insignificance as France went loopy.logical_song said:
3% or 4% separating the four candidates is amazing - and the margin of error probably means that any two of them could be in the run off.BudG said:Two polls:
BVA
Macron 23 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melenchon 20 (+1)
http://orig.lanouvellerepublique.fr/France-Monde/Actualite/Politique/n/Contenus/Articles/2017/04/14/Sondage-BVA-PQR-Macron-devant-Le-Pen-Melenchon-et-Fillon-au-coude-a-coude-3068275
ifop daily rolling poll
Le Pen 23 (-0.5)
Macron 22.5 (=)
Fillon 19 (=)
Melenchon 19 (=)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_14-04-2017.pdf0 -
Define bad.kle4 said:
Depends how bad Brexit goes.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?0 -
Mr. Llama, really? Not sure what Melenchon's views are, but Le Pen just wants to leave the eurozone, and only if that doesn't happen would she countenance a referendum on leaving the EU.0
-
If that is correct it could be literally any two out of the four. Fillon would need a lucky break on the 2nd decimal point.williamglenn said:A different view:
0 -
She's been in the top two for so long that people assume she'll remain there.BudG said:
Le Pen's support falling in just about every poll over the past two days and yet her price in the betting remains as solid as ever... amazing!!logical_song said:
3% or 4% separating the four candidates is amazing - and the margin of error probably means that any two of them could be in the run off.BudG said:Two polls:
BVA
Macron 23 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melenchon 20 (+1)
http://orig.lanouvellerepublique.fr/France-Monde/Actualite/Politique/n/Contenus/Articles/2017/04/14/Sondage-BVA-PQR-Macron-devant-Le-Pen-Melenchon-et-Fillon-au-coude-a-coude-3068275
ifop daily rolling poll
Le Pen 23 (-0.5)
Macron 22.5 (=)
Fillon 19 (=)
Melenchon 19 (=)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_14-04-2017.pdf
Can someone.. anyone (except HYUFD) betting on Le Pen, please explain why or how she is going to win this?0 -
I think she has a real chance against Fillon. If that is the run-off, it will mean that the centre and the left in France (around 50% of the vote) would feel totally demotivated and excluded from the Second Round contest. That almost inevitably means a low turnout and in those circumstances anything can happen - especially given Le Pen's leftish economic policies. Fillon is a crook in many voters' eyes and I suspect that is more the case the further left you go. He may get some Macron supporters holding their noses in R2, but I cannot see many Communists or Socialists voting for him.BudG said:
Le Pen's support falling in just about every poll over the past two days and yet her price in the betting remains as solid as ever... amazing!!logical_song said:
3% or 4% separating the four candidates is amazing - and the margin of error probably means that any two of them could be in the run off.BudG said:Two polls:
BVA
Macron 23 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melenchon 20 (+1)
http://orig.lanouvellerepublique.fr/France-Monde/Actualite/Politique/n/Contenus/Articles/2017/04/14/Sondage-BVA-PQR-Macron-devant-Le-Pen-Melenchon-et-Fillon-au-coude-a-coude-3068275
ifop daily rolling poll
Le Pen 23 (-0.5)
Macron 22.5 (=)
Fillon 19 (=)
Melenchon 19 (=)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_14-04-2017.pdf
Can someone.. anyone (except HYUFD) betting on Le Pen, please explain why or how she is going to win this?
0 -
The National Assembly would surely block any attempt to leave the EU. But, France would cease to be a major actor within the EU.HurstLlama said:
Indeed, now just suppose it turns out to be Melenchon versus Le Pen. The EU's problems over Brexit would pale into insignificance as France went loopy.logical_song said:
3% or 4% separating the four candidates is amazing - and the margin of error probably means that any two of them could be in the run off.BudG said:Two polls:
BVA
Macron 23 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melenchon 20 (+1)
http://orig.lanouvellerepublique.fr/France-Monde/Actualite/Politique/n/Contenus/Articles/2017/04/14/Sondage-BVA-PQR-Macron-devant-Le-Pen-Melenchon-et-Fillon-au-coude-a-coude-3068275
ifop daily rolling poll
Le Pen 23 (-0.5)
Macron 22.5 (=)
Fillon 19 (=)
Melenchon 19 (=)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_14-04-2017.pdf0 -
Mr. Dancer, have a butcher's at this to give you you a clue:Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, really? Not sure what Melenchon's views are, but Le Pen just wants to leave the eurozone, and only if that doesn't happen would she countenance a referendum on leaving the EU.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/14/jean-luc-melenchonpromises-no-red-army-tanks-france-wins-presidency/0 -
Melenchon wants to renegotiate the EU Treaties he is actually more anti EU than FillonMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, really? Not sure what Melenchon's views are, but Le Pen just wants to leave the eurozone, and only if that doesn't happen would she countenance a referendum on leaving the EU.
0 -
What was it, that some PBers were saying, when Macron was at 1.5 or 1.4? That he was at a great price and on his way towards 1.1. I literally said I thought you were all mad and that a fair price at that time was 2.2. Centrism, the Nordic way, and "I ♥ the EU" - they are not going to be successful selling-points in this election. Coming from a guy who's not even 40, too. Good-looking, but trying to sell calmness, centrism - and the overriding importance of friendship with Germany - as he fidgets.
I doubt that Macron will make it to the last two, but if he does, and his opponent is Mélenchon, I don't even expect Le Pen herself to advocate a vote for the fidgeting pro-Merkel centrist.
Granted, a Dupont-Aignan-gasm now looks extremely unlikely. But the odds were fantastic 0 -
Mr. HYUFD/Mr. Llama, cheers.
Are we sure he's actually a Frenchman?0 -
That said, if the run-off is Le Pen v Melenchon, I wonder what the impact on the National Assembly elections would be. I'm sure neither could win a majority, but there would be some strange results.0
-
Le Pen makes the runoff in every poll going and still leads the first round more often than not, that does not mean she will win the runoff of course but if she did against Macron, her likely opponent, it would be by winning a clear majority of Fillon and Dupont Aignan voters and a third of Melenchon votersBudG said:
Le Pen's support falling in just about every poll over the past two days and yet her price in the betting remains as solid as ever... amazing!!logical_song said:
3% or 4% separating the four candidates is amazing - and the margin of error probably means that any two of them could be in the run off.BudG said:Two polls:
BVA
Macron 23 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melenchon 20 (+1)
http://orig.lanouvellerepublique.fr/France-Monde/Actualite/Politique/n/Contenus/Articles/2017/04/14/Sondage-BVA-PQR-Macron-devant-Le-Pen-Melenchon-et-Fillon-au-coude-a-coude-3068275
ifop daily rolling poll
Le Pen 23 (-0.5)
Macron 22.5 (=)
Fillon 19 (=)
Melenchon 19 (=)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_14-04-2017.pdf
Can someone.. anyone (except HYUFD) betting on Le Pen, please explain why or how she is going ttho win this?0 -
If Macron scores low (or LePen) then one or more of the others could be higher. Alternatively Macron could be comfortably ahead and going to have a second round landslide.logical_song said:
If that is correct it could be literally any two out of the four. Fillon would need a lucky break on the 2nd decimal point.williamglenn said:A different view:
On those MOE bars the value bet is Macron to come top in the first round.0 -
I doubt it - a repeat of the 2015 result seems more realistic. Throw in some LD gains, though, and all of a sudden you have a hung Parliament.justin124 said:
If Corbyn departs, 35% for Labour in 2020 would be a realistic possibility.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?
0 -
Since 1980, only one Labour leader has managed to poll 35% or higher in a general election, in which time no fewer than five Labour leaders have fought elections. They will be starting from a low base as well and have their credibility shattered by years of infighting.justin124 said:
If Corbyn departs, 35% for Labour in 2020 would be a realistic possibility.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?
You keep saying that Labour has a chance of this, but practically everything tells against it. Labour have no coherent policy position (one of the reasons Corbyn won is because his opponents had no vision or imagination - while Corbyn's agenda is nonsensical it is at least distinctive). They have no significant intellectual or political figures left in their ranks, with the possible exception of Benn. They are faced with a Conservative leadership that is markedly more populist and also markedly less privileged than at any time in the last 25 years. They are also faced with a radical, long term and structural decline in their vote that leaves them vulnerable to pressure on the left as well.
I will say again - Corbyn is a serious problem. But he is not Labour's only problem. Electing him made matters worse, but the suggestion that a four point improvement on their 2015 position under current circumstances is likely with any leader is merely wishful thinking. If they can get back to 33% and hold most of the seats they currently have they will have done very well.0 -
If Macron does get through the only one who looks like he might give him problems is Melechon, who I imagine would get quite a few Le Pen supporters.foxinsoxuk said:
If Macron scores low (or LePen) then one or more of the others could be higher. Alternatively Macron could be comfortably ahead and going to have a second round landslide.logical_song said:
If that is correct it could be literally any two out of the four. Fillon would need a lucky break on the 2nd decimal point.williamglenn said:A different view:
On those MOE bars the value bet is Macron to come top in the first round.
0 -
I just can't help thinking that Fillon has the most solid support outside of Le Pen. If he gets into the second two, he'll surely win against Le Pen or Melanchon? I'm guessing he'd lose to Macron - but I don't see a Macron/Fillon final round...0
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He has a solid 20% or so. Presumably, he'll keep what he gets in R1, but where do the extra votes he needs come from?Mortimer said:I just can't help thinking that Fillon has the most solid support outside of Le Pen. If he gets into the second two, he'll surely win against Le Pen or Melanchon? I'm guessing he'd lose to Macron - but I don't see a Macron/Fillon final round...
0 -
I expect Les Republicains to win most seats in the legislative elections whoever becomes presidentSean_F said:That said, if the run-off is Le Pen v Melenchon, I wonder what the impact on the National Assembly elections would be. I'm sure neither could win a majority, but there would be some strange results.
0 -
Even if Labour did win 35%, the Tories would probably be on 43% or so.ydoethur said:
Since 1980, only one Labour leader has managed to poll 35% or higher in a general election, in which time no fewer than five Labour leaders have fought elections. They will be starting from a low base as well and have their credibility shattered by years of infighting.justin124 said:
If Corbyn departs, 35% for Labour in 2020 would be a realistic possibility.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?
You keep saying that Labour has a chance of this, but practically everything tells against it. Labour have no coherent policy position (one of the reasons Corbyn won is because his opponents had no vision or imagination - while Corbyn's agenda is nonsensical it is at least distinctive). They have no significant intellectual or political figures left in their ranks, with the possible exception of Benn. They are faced with a Conservative leadership that is markedly more populist and also markedly less privileged than at any time in the last 25 years. They are also faced with a radical, long term and structural decline in their vote that leaves them vulnerable to pressure on the left as well.
I will say again - Corbyn is a serious problem. But he is not Labour's only problem. Electing him made matters worse, but the suggestion that a four point improvement on their 2015 position under current circumstances with any leader is merely wishful thinking. If they can get back to 33% and hold most of the seats they currently have they will have done very well.0 -
Melenchon now 9 to win the presidency.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1171799830 -
If Le Pen or Fillon does become President I would not be surprised to see the National Assembly go left.Sean_F said:That said, if the run-off is Le Pen v Melenchon, I wonder what the impact on the National Assembly elections would be. I'm sure neither could win a majority, but there would be some strange results.
0 -
Neither would be able to do much without Assembly support, and neither would be likely to command a majority.HYUFD said:
Melenchon wants to renegotiate the EU Treaties he is actually more anti EU than FillonMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, really? Not sure what Melenchon's views are, but Le Pen just wants to leave the eurozone, and only if that doesn't happen would she countenance a referendum on leaving the EU.
A referendum on either the Euro or leaving the EU would be far from nailed on for French Leavers.0 -
If Macron wins then the 'Sarkozy party' will splinter just as much as the socialists.HYUFD said:
I expect Les Republicains to win most seats in the legislative elections whoever becomes presidentSean_F said:That said, if the run-off is Le Pen v Melenchon, I wonder what the impact on the National Assembly elections would be. I'm sure neither could win a majority, but there would be some strange results.
0 -
And Macron is odds against!AndyJS said:Melenchon now 9 to win the presidency.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1171799830 -
Usually, the National Assembly elections give the President's party a majority, unless they're held in mid-term. I think that would be the case with Fillon, but most unlikely with Le Pen.SouthamObserver said:
If Le Pen or Fillon does become President I would not be surprised to see the National Assembly go left.Sean_F said:That said, if the run-off is Le Pen v Melenchon, I wonder what the impact on the National Assembly elections would be. I'm sure neither could win a majority, but there would be some strange results.
0 -
LOL.. I said anyone (except HYUFD)!!HYUFD said:
Le Pen makes the runoff in every poll going and still leads the first round more often than not, that does not mean she will win the runoff of course but if she did against Macron, her likely opponent, it would be by winning a clear majority of Fillon and Dupont Aignan voters and a third of Melenchon votersBudG said:
Le Pen's support falling in just about every poll over the past two days and yet her price in the betting remains as solid as ever... amazing!!logical_song said:
3% or 4% separating the four candidates is amazing - and the margin of error probably means that any two of them could be in the run off.BudG said:Two polls:
BVA
Macron 23 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melenchon 20 (+1)
http://orig.lanouvellerepublique.fr/France-Monde/Actualite/Politique/n/Contenus/Articles/2017/04/14/Sondage-BVA-PQR-Macron-devant-Le-Pen-Melenchon-et-Fillon-au-coude-a-coude-3068275
ifop daily rolling poll
Le Pen 23 (-0.5)
Macron 22.5 (=)
Fillon 19 (=)
Melenchon 19 (=)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_14-04-2017.pdf
Can someone.. anyone (except HYUFD) betting on Le Pen, please explain why or how she is going ttho win this?
She makes the runoff in every poll so far, but the gap between her and third place is down to just 2-3%.
On the one hand you insinuate that 2-3% is enough to get her into the second round and then on the other you try and justify how a 20% gap in the head to head polls is not insurmountable.
Can, even you, think that 7/2 is a fair reflection of her chances of hanging on to get into the runoff and then overturn a 20% gap in the head to head final?
I am not saying she hasn't got a chance, but 7/2??0 -
That was part of my point, although I didn't spell it out. 40%+ is realistic for the Tories as matters stand if a substantial chunk of the UKIP vote defects to them, although that could of course change quickly if things go sour or May signs off on a soft Brexit after her sabre rattling. But if they manage that, Labour will still be vulnerable to losses even if it improves its own vote share a touch, most probably by squeezing the Greens.Sean_F said:
Even if Labour did win 35%, the Tories would probably be on 43% or so.ydoethur said:
Since 1980, only one Labour leader has managed to poll 35% or higher in a general election, in which time no fewer than five Labour leaders have fought elections. They will be starting from a low base as well and have their credibility shattered by years of infighting.justin124 said:
If Corbyn departs, 35% for Labour in 2020 would be a realistic possibility.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?
You keep saying that Labour has a chance of this, but practically everything tells against it. Labour have no coherent policy position (one of the reasons Corbyn won is because his opponents had no vision or imagination - while Corbyn's agenda is nonsensical it is at least distinctive). They have no significant intellectual or political figures left in their ranks, with the possible exception of Benn. They are faced with a Conservative leadership that is markedly more populist and also markedly less privileged than at any time in the last 25 years. They are also faced with a radical, long term and structural decline in their vote that leaves them vulnerable to pressure on the left as well.
I will say again - Corbyn is a serious problem. But he is not Labour's only problem. Electing him made matters worse, but the suggestion that a four point improvement on their 2015 position under current circumstances with any leader is merely wishful thinking. If they can get back to 33% and hold most of the seats they currently have they will have done very well.
They are in an extremely difficult position and that is quite separate from the fact that their leader makes Keith Joseph look sane and normal and General Melchett look intelligent.0 -
Not many of the punters are French though, BF doesn't cover France. Nearly everyone is betting at great distance.isam said:
And Macron is odds against!AndyJS said:Melenchon now 9 to win the presidency.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1171799830 -
Macron's party is based almost entirely on him and has no Assembly members at the moment, even if Macron wins the presidency En Marche will likely be battling the FN and PS and Melenchon's leftists for second behind a Les Republicains now freed of Fillonwilliamglenn said:
If Macron wins then the 'Sarkozy party' will splinter just as much as the socialists.HYUFD said:
I expect Les Republicains to win most seats in the legislative elections whoever becomes presidentSean_F said:That said, if the run-off is Le Pen v Melenchon, I wonder what the impact on the National Assembly elections would be. I'm sure neither could win a majority, but there would be some strange results.
0 -
The error bars would be bell curves, so the probability is that the true measure will be close to the centrepoint.williamglenn said:A different view:
Anyone know how postal votes work in France? have they gone out yet?0 -
What difference does that make?foxinsoxuk said:
Not many of the punters are French though, BF doesn't cover France. Nearly everyone is betting at great distance.isam said:
And Macron is odds against!AndyJS said:Melenchon now 9 to win the presidency.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1171799830 -
There is not local knowledge in the market. Few of us have read in the original French either. It is harder to pick up the signals.isam said:
What difference does that make?foxinsoxuk said:
Not many of the punters are French though, BF doesn't cover France. Nearly everyone is betting at great distance.isam said:
And Macron is odds against!AndyJS said:Melenchon now 9 to win the presidency.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1171799830 -
If Labour gets to 35% at the GE it would mean that all current certainties have been turned totally on their heads. It would surely indicate that a very strong desire to get rid of the Tories had gripped the nation, so the LDs may well be getting tactical votes where they had a chance to unseat a Tory MP.Sean_F said:
Even if Labour did win 35%, the Tories would probably be on 43% or so.ydoethur said:
Since 1980, only one Labour leader has managed to poll 35% or higher in a general election, in which time no fewer than five Labour leaders have fought elections. They will be starting from a low base as well and have their credibility shattered by years of infighting.justin124 said:
If Corbyn departs, 35% for Labour in 2020 would be a realistic possibility.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?
You keep saying that Labour has a chance of this, but practically everything tells against it. Labour have no coherent policy position (one of the reasons Corbyn won is because his opponents had no vision or imagination - while Corbyn's agenda is nonsensical it is at least distinctive). They have no significant intellectual or political figures left in their ranks, with the possible exception of Benn. They are faced with a Conservative leadership that is markedly more populist and also markedly less privileged than at any time in the last 25 years. They are also faced with a radical, long term and structural decline in their vote that leaves them vulnerable to pressure on the left as well.
I will say again - Corbyn is a serious problem. But he is not Labour's only problem. Electing him made matters worse, but the suggestion that a four point improvement on their 2015 position under current circumstances with any leader is merely wishful thinking. If they can get back to 33% and hold most of the seats they currently have they will have done very well.
0 -
Les Republicains are barely more coherent as a party than En Marche. It was Sarkozy's big project to rebrand them as a more solid party but it hasn't worked.HYUFD said:
Macron's party is based almost entirely on him and has no Assembly members at the moment, even if Macron wins the presidency En Marche will likely be battling the FN and PS and Melenchon's leftists for second behind a Les Republicains now freed of Fillonwilliamglenn said:
If Macron wins then the 'Sarkozy party' will splinter just as much as the socialists.HYUFD said:
I expect Les Republicains to win most seats in the legislative elections whoever becomes presidentSean_F said:That said, if the run-off is Le Pen v Melenchon, I wonder what the impact on the National Assembly elections would be. I'm sure neither could win a majority, but there would be some strange results.
0 -
What you say sounds reasonable, but if Labour found a leader attractive to voters in time for the next election, it wouldn't surprise me if many voters decided to give them the benefit of the doubt.ydoethur said:
Since 1980, only one Labour leader has managed to poll 35% or higher in a general election, in which time no fewer than five Labour leaders have fought elections. They will be starting from a low base as well and have their credibility shattered by years of infighting.justin124 said:
If Corbyn departs, 35% for Labour in 2020 would be a realistic possibility.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?
You keep saying that Labour has a chance of this, but practically everything tells against it. Labour have no coherent policy position (one of the reasons Corbyn won is because his opponents had no vision or imagination - while Corbyn's agenda is nonsensical it is at least distinctive). They have no significant intellectual or political figures left in their ranks, with the possible exception of Benn. They are faced with a Conservative leadership that is markedly more populist and also markedly less privileged than at any time in the last 25 years. They are also faced with a radical, long term and structural decline in their vote that leaves them vulnerable to pressure on the left as well.
I will say again - Corbyn is a serious problem. But he is not Labour's only problem. Electing him made matters worse, but the suggestion that a four point improvement on their 2015 position under current circumstances is likely with any leader is merely wishful thinking. If they can get back to 33% and hold most of the seats they currently have they will have done very well.
It could be that we'd see "swingback" working in Labour's favour in that case.
Good evening, everyone.0 -
I don't know - if whatever deal we get is perceived as being poor, and the 'no deal is better than a bad deal' crowd fail to convince, then May will suffer, as Cameron suffered when he came back with a poor deal. If we are beginning to suffer and it is perceived that May handled things badly, she face consequences against a decent opposition leader, even considering the Corbyn years leading up to them.HurstLlama said:
Define bad.kle4 said:
Depends how bad Brexit goes.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?0 -
Historically, when the Labour vote goes up so does the LD's. The two run in tandem.SouthamObserver said:
If Labour gets to 35% at the GE it would mean that all current certainties have been turned totally on their heads. It would surely indicate that a very strong desire to get rid of the Tories had gripped the nation, so the LDs may well be getting tactical votes where they had a chance to unseat a Tory MP.Sean_F said:
Even if Labour did win 35%, the Tories would probably be on 43% or so.ydoethur said:
Since 1980, only one Labour leader has managed to poll 35% or higher in a general election, in which time no fewer than five Labour leaders have fought elections. They will be starting from a low base as well and have their credibility shattered by years of infighting.justin124 said:
If Corbyn departs, 35% for Labour in 2020 would be a realistic possibility.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?
You keep saying that Labour has a chance of this, but practically everything tells against it. Labour have no coherent policy position (one of the reasons Corbyn won is because his opponents had no vision or imagination - while Corbyn's agenda is nonsensical it is at least distinctive). They have no significant intellectual or political figures left in their ranks, with the possible exception of Benn. They are faced with a Conservative leadership that is markedly more populist and also markedly less privileged than at any time in the last 25 years. They are also faced with a radical, long term and structural decline in their vote that leaves them vulnerable to pressure on the left as well.
I will say again - Corbyn is a serious problem. But he is not Labour's only problem. Electing him made matters worse, but the suggestion that a four point improvement on their 2015 position under current circumstances with any leader is merely wishful thinking. If they can get back to 33% and hold most of the seats they currently have they will have done very well.0 -
Good evening, Miss JGP.0
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Always time for a historical precedent to alter.foxinsoxuk said:
Historically, when the Labour vote goes up so does the LD's. The two run in tandem.SouthamObserver said:
If Labour gets to 35% at the GE it would mean that all current certainties have been turned totally on their heads. It would surely indicate that a very strong desire to get rid of the Tories had gripped the nation, so the LDs may well be getting tactical votes where they had a chance to unseat a Tory MP.Sean_F said:
Even if Labour did win 35%, the Tories would probably be on 43% or so.ydoethur said:
Since 1980, only one Labour leader has managed to poll 35% or higher in a general election, in which time no fewer than five Labour leaders have fought elections. They will be starting from a low base as well and have their credibility shattered by years of infighting.justin124 said:
If Corbyn departs, 35% for Labour in 2020 would be a realistic possibility.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?
You keep saying that Labour has a chance of this, but practically everything tells against it. Labour have no coherent policy position (one of the reasons Corbyn won is because his opponents had no vision or imagination - while Corbyn's agenda is nonsensical it is at least distinctive). They have no significant intellectual or political figures left in their ranks, with the possible exception of Benn. They are faced with a Conservative leadership that is markedly more populist and also markedly less privileged than at any time in the last 25 years. They are also faced with a radical, long term and structural decline in their vote that leaves them vulnerable to pressure on the left as well.
I will say again - Corbyn is a serious problem. But he is not Labour's only problem. Electing him made matters worse, but the suggestion that a four point improvement on their 2015 position under current circumstances with any leader is merely wishful thinking. If they can get back to 33% and hold most of the seats they currently have they will have done very well.0 -
Given Macron is odds on yesBudG said:
LOL.. I said anyone (except HYUFD)!!HYUFD said:
Le Pen makes the runoff in every poll going and still leads the first round more often than not, that does not mean she will win the runoff of course but if she did against Macron, her likely opponent, it would be by winning a clear majority of Fillon and Dupont Aignan voters and a third of Melenchon votersBudG said:
Le Pen's support falling in just about every poll over the past two days and yet her price in the betting remains as solid as ever... amazing!!logical_song said:
3% or 4% separating the four candidates is amazing - and the margin of error probably means that any two of them could be in the run off.BudG said:Two polls:
BVA
Macron 23 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melenchon 20 (+1)
http://orig.lanouvellerepublique.fr/France-Monde/Actualite/Politique/n/Contenus/Articles/2017/04/14/Sondage-BVA-PQR-Macron-devant-Le-Pen-Melenchon-et-Fillon-au-coude-a-coude-3068275
ifop daily rolling poll
Le Pen 23 (-0.5)
Macron 22.5 (=)
Fillon 19 (=)
Melenchon 19 (=)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_14-04-2017.pdf
Can someone.. anyone (except HYUFD) betting on Le Pen, please explain why or how she is going ttho win this?
She makes the runoff in every poll so far, but the gap between her and third place is down to just 2-3%.
On the one hand you insinuate that 2-3% is enough to get her into the second round and then on the other you try and justify how a 20% gap in the head to head polls is not insurmountable.
Can, even you, think that 7/2 is a fair reflection of her chances of hanging on to get into the runoff and then overturn a 20% gap in the head to head final?
I am not saying she hasn't got a chance, but 7/2??0 -
Even after the ERM debacle in 1992 and a new leader in John Smith many did not see a big majority for Labour. It was Blair that put the rocket boosters on Conservatives feeling safe to vote Labour.Even with a terrible Brexit outcome Labour need a leader who can reassure someone like John Smith would give them hope of been the largest party.kle4 said:
Depends how bad Brexit goes.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?0 -
I agree. And some strange-looking decisions too, given that not just the top two but also anyone who makes it to 12.5% gets a place in the runoff. If Mélenchon makes it to the Elysée, I wouldn't underestimate his ground game in the general election. Tens of thousands have contributed in the discussions that produced his programme, and many will be fired up. The left will be on a roll.Sean_F said:That said, if the run-off is Le Pen v Melenchon, I wonder what the impact on the National Assembly elections would be. I'm sure neither could win a majority, but there would be some strange results.
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I don't think that has anything to do with physical rather than ebooks. Unlike digital music and films via fantastic streaming apps, ebooks and ebook readers are poor, harder to read than the physical equivalent etc etc etc. Basically nobody has really solved replicating the experience of a book via digital, let alone improved it.SeanT said:
I think we can also thank a generation of great British children's writers - from J K Rowling to Philip Pullman - plus some brilliant American authors of YA fiction like Twilight and the Hunger Games - who taught kids and teens that they could really enjoy owning and reading books. Actual, physical *books*.Mortimer said:
Yup. For both of our sakes, long may it continue. I have to keep reminding my lovely but blinkered consulting friends this. They see books as inefficient. I suggest that books not running out of battery makes them more efficient.SeanT said:
Contrary to many perceptions, physical book sales are up, well up - in the USA as well as the UK. It's a bullish market.Mortimer said:
Indeed. I've even heard that it is one of the few counties where bookshops are opening, rather than closing...SimonStClare said:“Piddle Valley” - I know the place very well, along with all the other piddles and puddles around the Dorchester area. Dorset has some real cracking place names and some quite charming little towns.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2017/mar/17/london-book-fair-book-sales-up-ebooks-down
I also note, with some personal glee, the fact that those annoying readers are "still demanding" gripping psychological thrillers despite the fact that agents and publishers are "really bored of them".
Heh.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2017/mar/17/london-book-fair-book-sales-up-ebooks-down
Interestingly, just like streaming increased music sales because people then know they want the object, I frequently sell antiquarian books to people because they've seen a section of it online and now know they want it...
Those kids and teens are now becoming adults, and they still want to own and read books.
Than God, praise be, and Phew!0 -
Yep - I suspect that a 35% score for Labour would indicate the return of the once immensely powerful anti-Tory party.foxinsoxuk said:
Historically, when the Labour vote goes up so does the LD's. The two run in tandem.SouthamObserver said:
If Labour gets to 35% at the GE it would mean that all current certainties have been turned totally on their heads. It would surely indicate that a very strong desire to get rid of the Tories had gripped the nation, so the LDs may well be getting tactical votes where they had a chance to unseat a Tory MP.Sean_F said:
Even if Labour did win 35%, the Tories would probably be on 43% or so.ydoethur said:
Since 1980, only one Labour leader has managed to poll 35% or higher in a general election, in which time no fewer than five Labour leaders have fought elections. They will be starting from a low base as well and have their credibility shattered by years of infighting.justin124 said:
If Corbyn departs, 35% for Labour in 2020 would be a realistic possibility.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?
You keep saying that Labour has a chance of this, but practically everything tells against it. Labour have no coherent policy position (one of the reasons Corbyn won is because his opponents had no vision or imagination - while Corbyn's agenda is nonsensical it is at least distinctive). They have no significant intellectual or political figures left in their ranks, with the possible exception of Benn. They are faced with a Conservative leadership that is markedly more populist and also markedly less privileged than at any time in the last 25 years. They are also faced with a radical, long term and structural decline in their vote that leaves them vulnerable to pressure on the left as well.
I will say again - Corbyn is a serious problem. But he is not Labour's only problem. Electing him made matters worse, but the suggestion that a four point improvement on their 2015 position under current circumstances with any leader is merely wishful thinking. If they can get back to 33% and hold most of the seats they currently have they will have done very well.
As things stand, that looks to be a vanishingly small possibility.
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Not in 2010 or 1983foxinsoxuk said:
Historically, when the Labour vote goes up so does the LD's. The two run in tandem.SouthamObserver said:
If Labour gets to 35% at the GE it would mean that all current certainties have been turned totally on their heads. It would surely indicate that a very strong desire to get rid of the Tories had gripped the nation, so the LDs may well be getting tactical votes where they had a chance to unseat a Tory MP.Sean_F said:
Even if Labour did win 35%, the Tories would probably be on 43% or so.ydoethur said:
Since 1980, only one Labour leader has managed to poll 35% or higher in a general election, in which time no fewer than five Labour leaders have fought elections. They will be starting from a low base as well and have their credibility shattered by years of infighting.justin124 said:
If Corbyn departs, 35% for Labour in 2020 would be a realistic possibility.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?
You keep saying that Labour has a chance of this, but practically everything tells against it. Labour have no coherent policy position (one of the reasons Corbyn won is because his opponents had no vision or imagination - while Corbyn's agenda is nonsensical it is at least distinctive). They have no significant intellectual or political figures left in their ranks, with the possible exception of Benn. They are faced with a Conservative leadership that is markedly more populist and also markedly less privileged than at any time in the last 25 years. They are also faced with a radical, long term and structural decline in their vote that leaves them vulnerable to pressure on the left as well.
I will say again - Corbyn is a serious problem. But he is not Labour's only problem. Electing him made matters worse, but the suggestion that a four point improvement on their 2015 position under current circumstances with any leader is merely wishful thinking. If they can get back to 33% and hold most of the seats they currently have they will have done very well.0 -
I didn't say they'd win, just that they might regain electoral credibility faster than is thought, in the right circumstances. Regaining credibility to the point of winning is, given the hurdles they face, unlikely, but there is still an opportunity for them - the accepted wisdom is if things do not change the Tories might lose some seats to the LDs, but gain a larger number from Labour. If Labour regained credibility faster than thought, with a new Leader and a poor Brexit deal hitting the Tories, even with all their other problems it is possible, though perhaps not likely, that they could deprive the Tories of a majority.Yorkcity said:
Even after the ERM debacle in 1992 and a new leader in John Smith many did not see a big majority for Labour. It was Blair that put the rocket boosters on Conservatives feeling safe to vote Labour.Even with a terrible Brexit outcome Labour need a leader who can reassure someone like John Smith would give them hope of been the largest party.kle4 said:
Depends how bad Brexit goes.foxinsoxuk said:
I think replacing Corbyn would certainly improve Labours chances, but it would take a couple of years at least to establish electoral credibility.murali_s said:
Only if Corbyn is leader. Huge opportunity for Labour if they get a credible leader. The Brexit fallout could be an open goal for them.MarkHopkins said:
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?0
This discussion has been closed.