A big jump on joining the EU and worse performance after the introduction of the Euro, relative to other European countries, which may signal a decline on Brexit.
That's an interesting point. Has the fallout from the financial crisis disguised the fact that the Euro has done what it said on the tin and in time will come to be seen as a success story?
Incidentally, I also made a prediction some time back that China's ascent would, in the end, prove more of a threat to Germany than any other European nation. Germany thrives as an exporter of mid-high-end manufacturing, this is precisely the area where China thrives, and where China can supplant the West.
Look how China has overtaken Germany in machine sales to Russia. The auguries are there.
Ummm: Germany exports capital goods (it is the world's largest exporter of these). That is, it sells machines that make things. China's industrialisation has led to it buying massive quantities of capital goods from Germany, resulting in Germany being pretty much the only non resource exporter to have a trade surplus with China.
China has made very little progress in developing a capital goods industry, and while that could well change, it has not yet. Indeed, capital goods production in China - as a percent of GDP - has fallen by almost a fifth since 2001.
China also has the world's biggest population so it is not that surprising really
Sure. But I am old enough remember a time when my predictions of Chinese supremacy were roundly laughed at, here on Ye Olde PB.
I was right, they were wrong.
And this stuff is important: the rise of China is the reason for Trump.
Incidentally, I also made a prediction some time back that China's ascent would, in the end, prove more of a threat to Germany than any other European nation. Germany thrives as an exporter of mid-high-end manufacturing, this is precisely the area where China thrives, and where China can supplant the West.
Look how China has overtaken Germany in machine sales to Russia. The auguries are there.
China is rising certainly but I think in high quality manufacturing Germany will still have the edge and on gdp per capita too (which is still actually more important to a nation's population). I believe until the 16th century China and India were the largest economies in the world so we are really reverting to the norm
China also has the world's biggest population so it is not that surprising really
Sure. But I am old enough remember a time when my predictions of Chinese supremacy were roundly laughed at, here on Ye Olde PB.
I was right, they were wrong.
And this stuff is important: the rise of China is the reason for Trump.
Incidentally, I also made a prediction some time back that China's ascent would, in the end, prove more of a threat to Germany than any other European nation. Germany thrives as an exporter of mid-high-end manufacturing, this is precisely the area where China thrives, and where China can supplant the West.
Look how China has overtaken Germany in machine sales to Russia. The auguries are there.
China is rising certainly but I think in high quality manufacturing Germany will still have the edge and on gdp per capita too (which is still actually more important to a nation's population). I believe until the 16th century China and India were the largest economies in the world so we are really reverting to the norm
China was the world's largest economy till about 1850. Intelligent observers in the late 19th/early 20th centuries expected China to boom, once the Manchus went. Civil war and Mao massively retarded Chinese growth.
China also has the world's biggest population so it is not that surprising really
Sure. But I am old enough remember a time when my predictions of Chinese supremacy were roundly laughed at, here on Ye Olde PB.
I was right, they were wrong.
And this stuff is important: the rise of China is the reason for Trump.
Incidentally, I also made a prediction some time back that China's ascent would, in the end, prove more of a threat to Germany than any other European nation. Germany thrives as an exporter of mid-high-end manufacturing, this is precisely the area where China thrives, and where China can supplant the West.
Look how China has overtaken Germany in machine sales to Russia. The auguries are there.
China is rising certainly but I think in high quality manufacturing Germany will still have the edge and on gdp per capita too (which is still actually more important to a nation's population). I believe until the 16th century China and India were the largest economies in the world so we are really reverting to the norm
China was the world's largest economy till about 1850.
Well reinforces the point even more then, it was only the extent of the British Empire and then the rise of communism in China which allowed it to be overtaken by the UK and then the USA
Incidentally, I also made a prediction some time back that China's ascent would, in the end, prove more of a threat to Germany than any other European nation. Germany thrives as an exporter of mid-high-end manufacturing, this is precisely the area where China thrives, and where China can supplant the West.
Look how China has overtaken Germany in machine sales to Russia. The auguries are there.
Ummm: Germany exports capital goods (it is the world's largest exporter of these). That is, it sells machines that make things. China's industrialisation has led to it buying massive quantities of capital goods from Germany, resulting in Germany being pretty much the only non resource exporter to have a trade surplus with China.
China has made very little progress in developing a capital goods industry, and while that could well change, it has not yet. Indeed, capital goods production in China - as a percent of GDP - has fallen by almost a fifth since 2001.
Interestingly the percentage of cars made by domestic manufacturers has gone down in China. As people have got wealthier they have traded up the car brands, which are often German. I nevertheless agree with Sean's basic point. In the West we could do with learning from China.
But the trend is clear. China will overtake before 2020.
China isn't going to overtake the West as a whole. Unfair comparison? Not really. China is almost like having the whole of the West in one county. Places like Singapore and Taiwan only represent a tiny percentage of the Chinese population.
Trump has what Terry Pratchett once referred to as Charisn'tma - he's so terrible he fascinates, even attracts people. He's also capable of being funny.
Incidentally, I also made a prediction some time back that China's ascent would, in the end, prove more of a threat to Germany than any other European nation. Germany thrives as an exporter of mid-high-end manufacturing, this is precisely the area where China thrives, and where China can supplant the West.
Look how China has overtaken Germany in machine sales to Russia. The auguries are there.
Ummm: Germany exports capital goods (it is the world's largest exporter of these). That is, it sells machines that make things. China's industrialisation has led to it buying massive quantities of capital goods from Germany, resulting in Germany being pretty much the only non resource exporter to have a trade surplus with China.
China has made very little progress in developing a capital goods industry, and while that could well change, it has not yet. Indeed, capital goods production in China - as a percent of GDP - has fallen by almost a fifth since 2001.
China will do to German manufacturing what German manufacturing did to the British. They start by copying, they end up by supplanting.
The phrase "Made in England" was developed specifically to distinguish superior British manufactures from inferior German copies. I kid you not.
The Germans are deluded if they think this won't happen to them, in time.
Nevertheless, capital goods is not (or has not been to date) a strategic priority of the Chinese government, and production of them has been falling as a percent of GDP.
Cue Trump tonight "We dropped the big bomb. We have the biggest bombs we do, the biggest bombs. ISIS no more, big bomb".
Mightily relevant to the thread; I bet that thing cost more than Estonia's entire defence budget.
Point of order: Estonia is one of only five NATO countries to spend more than 2% of GDP on defence, and is only a smidgen behind the UK (2.16% vs 2.21%).
Another random point: the US includes a lot more in its military spending number than the UK does. For example the Department of Veteran Affairs pays for healthcare for veterans (rather than Medicair/Medicaid) and that therefore is included in the defence budget.
Random point number three: the worst NATO country (ignoring Iceland) as far as military spend goes is... no, not Gemany or Italy... but Canada who doesn't even make 1%.
Maybe they consider their NHS to be a higher priority, or other social security spending.
Sweden isn't under the 'NATO umbrella'. But it spends 1.5% of GDP, also less than we spend.
It should cost NATO members less to organise defence collectively. So perhaps it's reasonable for Canada, a NATO member, to spend only 1%. If so the UK could be the odd one out.
As an aside, I would point out that Switzerland - which has one of the most expensive currencies and domestic labour forces in the world, and which has a free trade ageement with China - runs a trade surplus in manufactured products, and - indeed - has one of the largest current account surpluses in the world.
Perhaps there's something more to trade deficits than merely competition with China.
Trump has what Terry Pratchett once referred to as Charisn'tma - he's so terrible he fascinates, even attracts people. He's also capable of being funny.
It's interesting how old and new get mingled yin/yang-wise. For instance the loss of the buggy whip industry is a standard example of progress to the car. Is there some way one might make money from Chinese progress? For instance a special knife to cut through the smog. Or just some kind of mask?
Incidentally, I also made a prediction some time back that China's ascent would, in the end, prove more of a threat to Germany than any other European nation. Germany thrives as an exporter of mid-high-end manufacturing, this is precisely the area where China thrives, and where China can supplant the West.
Look how China has overtaken Germany in machine sales to Russia. The auguries are there.
Ummm: Germany exports capital goods (it is the world's largest exporter of these). That is, it sells machines that make things. China's industrialisation has led to it buying massive quantities of capital goods from Germany, resulting in Germany being pretty much the only non resource exporter to have a trade surplus with China.
China has made very little progress in developing a capital goods industry, and while that could well change, it has not yet. Indeed, capital goods production in China - as a percent of GDP - has fallen by almost a fifth since 2001.
China will do to German manufacturing what German manufacturing did to the British. They start by copying, they end up by supplanting.
The phrase "Made in England" was developed specifically to distinguish superior British manufactures from inferior German copies. I kid you not.
The Germans are deluded if they think this won't happen to them, in time.
German manufacturing has had a high reputation since the 1860's.
I have recently treated myself to 4 new eggcups, in my usual rock'n'roll, big-spending kind of way. They are Spode Italian - a pattern I have always loved - and they turned up with little stickers saying "made in China", which I suppose is things coming full circle.
PS yes I looked carefully - it says "in China", not "of China".
It's next on the list, tho. It's obvious. China wants to become a developed nation, that means making its own developed-nation-type exports, rather than being home to huge third world sweatshops, putting together iPhones for Apple./
Not necessarily. After all, when China's per capita GDP becomes comparable to that of developed nations, there will be no bigger market for its products than China itself.
The main lesson we as Brits could and should learn is that there is no alternative to European integration. We need to set aside our reservations and embrace the EU fully, join the Euro, and stand proud and tall in the world. We are Europe and we are mighty!
Incidentally, I also made a prediction some time back that China's ascent would, in the end, prove more of a threat to Germany than any other European nation. Germany thrives as an exporter of mid-high-end manufacturing, this is precisely the area where China thrives, and where China can supplant the West.
Look how China has overtaken Germany in machine sales to Russia. The auguries are there.
Ummm: Germany exports capital goods (it is the world's largest exporter of these). That is, it sells machines that make things. China's industrialisation has led to it buying massive quantities of capital goods from Germany, resulting in Germany being pretty much the only non resource exporter to have a trade surplus with China.
China has made very little progress in developing a capital goods industry, and while that could well change, it has not yet. Indeed, capital goods production in China - as a percent of GDP - has fallen by almost a fifth since 2001.
China will do to German manufacturing what German manufacturing did to the British. They start by copying, they end up by supplanting.
The phrase "Made in England" was developed specifically to distinguish superior British manufactures from inferior German copies. I kid you not.
The Germans are deluded if they think this won't happen to them, in time.
Nevertheless, capital goods is not (or has not been to date) a strategic priority of the Chinese government, and production of them has been falling as a percent of GDP.
It's next on the list, tho. It's obvious. China wants to become a developed nation, that means making its own developed-nation-type exports, rather than being home to huge third world sweatshops, putting together iPhones for Apple.
Those exports aren't going to be services like education or finance or law or advertising or many of the other things Britain is quite good at (phew!), it's going to be higher end manufacturing.
High speed trains is a good, early example of how they are targeting German and Japanese specialities: they're encountering problems, but they're getting there.
Technically the US is closer to Russia than the UK when you include Alaska
Two miles between their respective Bering Strait islands, iirc.
It/they play a part in the gripping climax of Lionel Davidson's last novel, Kolymsky Heights, as I'm sure Ishmael_Z would testify.
I was just thinking exactly that. Stonkingly good book, and a real surprise after his previous output (and after such a long gap between books).
I'm amazed that it hasn't been made into a film, particularly considering the amount of Mission Impossible style pish that abounds. Perhaps it too obviously passes the good books make crap movies test.
I'll always have a soft spot for it it as it was the last book I gave my dad before he died.
It's next on the list, tho. It's obvious. China wants to become a developed nation, that means making its own developed-nation-type exports, rather than being home to huge third world sweatshops, putting together iPhones for Apple./
Not necessarily. After all, when China's per capita GDP becomes comparable to that of developed nations, there will be no bigger market for its products than China itself.
The main lesson we as Brits could and should learn is that there is no alternative to European integration. We need to set aside our reservations and embrace the EU fully, join the Euro, and stand proud and tall in the world. We are Europe and we are mighty!
It's next on the list, tho. It's obvious. China wants to become a developed nation, that means making its own developed-nation-type exports, rather than being home to huge third world sweatshops, putting together iPhones for Apple./
Not necessarily. After all, when China's per capita GDP becomes comparable to that of developed nations, there will be no bigger market for its products than China itself.
The main lesson we as Brits could and should learn is that there is no alternative to European integration. We need to set aside our reservations and embrace the EU fully, join the Euro, and stand proud and tall in the world. We are Europe and we are mighty!
Ha. Let me introduce Stagnation and Southern Europe...
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
It's next on the list, tho. It's obvious. China wants to become a developed nation, that means making its own developed-nation-type exports, rather than being home to huge third world sweatshops, putting together iPhones for Apple./
Not necessarily. After all, when China's per capita GDP becomes comparable to that of developed nations, there will be no bigger market for its products than China itself.
The main lesson we as Brits could and should learn is that there is no alternative to European integration. We need to set aside our reservations and embrace the EU fully, join the Euro, and stand proud and tall in the world. We are Europe and we are mighty!
And whilst I defend your right to state your view of course, you won't mind awfully if some of us wish to oppose it by all means to our dying breath.
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
I think it's deep in the culture, handed down. And that's understandable.
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
It's the empire builders who have most faith in the EU.
Most Brits can see the way the world is going. It isn't euro-centric.
A Harris poll gives Macron his biggest lead ever. If people start asking who is best placed to defeat Macron in the second round, what's the answer? It could be Mélenchon.
The top 30% of the population will never vote for Mélenchon. They would rather vote for Le Pen. They would rather vote for Pétain. Why? Because of Mélenchon's tax policy. That leaves the other 70%.
Macron 24% Le Pen 22% Fillon 20% Mélenchon 19% Hamon 8% Dupont-Aignan 4%
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
It's the empire builders who have most faith in the EU.
Most Brits can see the way the world is going. It isn't euro-centric.
I hear you. I can't say I have any reason to judge. I wonder if OGH could suggest some subtle polling question to test that.
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
I have never seen much objective evidence of this difficulty we are said to have had in coming to terms with loss of empire, though obviously the claim is all over the place in lefty satire from 40 years on, onward. My impression (from what I know of my grandparents' generation) is that the empire was the most monstrous pain in the arse imaginable which meant that the British middle class had to endure whole careers in horrible places doing tedious things like tea-planting and soldiering and coming home for 3 weeks every 3 years.
Amusement time: the term BRICs was first conceived by my former Goldman research colleague Jim O'Neill in 2001. Since then, Russia and Brazil - which started strong - have now gone into reverse. Being resource exporters - and with us having moved from a resource bull to a bear market - both have (somewhat shockingly) grown slower than the Eurozone in the last five years.
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
Did you see Emily Thornberry on Newsnight the other day alongside a former State Department official? He was completely cringing at her assertion that we have such a superior understanding of the Middle East than the Americans because of our long-standing links, i.e. the legacy of empire.
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
I have never seen much objective evidence of this difficulty we are said to have had in coming to terms with loss of empire, though obviously the claim is all over the place in lefty satire from 40 years on, onward. My impression (from what I know of my grandparents' generation) is that the empire was the most monstrous pain in the arse imaginable which meant that the British middle class had to endure whole careers in horrible places doing tedious things like tea-planting and soldiering and coming home for 3 weeks every 3 years.
Public school "indoctrination? You tell me. That's not my culture.
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
Many Turks still thought they had an empire centuries after it had gone . Some Brexiters will be the same .
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
Although there are some voices in UKIP that seem very keen to resurrect the Commonwealth as a trading bloc, which I consider optimistic given the two largest members are nuclear armed adversaries.
A Harris poll gives Macron his biggest lead ever. If people start asking who is best placed to defeat Macron in the second round, what's the answer? It could be Mélenchon.
The top 30% of the population will never vote for Mélenchon. They would rather vote for Le Pen. They would rather vote for Pétain. Why? Because of Mélenchon's tax policy. That leaves the other 70%.
Macron 24% Le Pen 22% Fillon 20% Mélenchon 19% Hamon 8% Dupont-Aignan 4%
I wonder if the fifth and sixth placed candidates might fade somewhat into the finish, as people try to avoid a wasted vote. ND-A's voters would probably split between MLP and Fillon, while Hamon would probably go between Macron and Melenchon.
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
Although there are some voices in UKIP that seem very keen to resurrect the Commonwealth as a trading bloc, which I consider optimistic given the two largest members are nuclear armed adversaries.
I don't think those two countries are what most Kippers have in mind by a Commonwealth trading bloc. The 'Old Commonwealth' is the preferred euphemism for the bits populated by white English speakers.
"Labour could fall to below 10% in the polls if any of Jeremy Corbyn’s vocal critics try to replace him because most of the party’s support is down to his leadership, according to Diane Abbott.
The shadow home secretary estimated that Corbyn was responsible for 18-20 percentage points of the support enjoyed by Labour, which is at its lowest level since the 2015 election and joint equal to its lowest performance in ICM polls going back to 1983."
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
Did you see Emily Thornberry on Newsnight the other day alongside a former State Department official? He was completely cringing at her assertion that we have such a superior understanding of the Middle East than the Americans because of our long-standing links, i.e. the legacy of empire.
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
Although there are some voices in UKIP that seem very keen to resurrect the Commonwealth as a trading bloc, which I consider optimistic given the two largest members are nuclear armed adversaries.
I don't think those two countries are what most Kippers have in mind by a Commonwealth trading bloc. The 'Old Commonwealth' is the preferred euphemism for the bits populated by white English speakers.
If you remove India (no fan of free trade agreements generally) from a Commonwealth trading bloc then it loses its fastest growing member.
It's next on the list, tho. It's obvious. China wants to become a developed nation, that means making its own developed-nation-type exports, rather than being home to huge third world sweatshops, putting together iPhones for Apple./
Not necessarily. After all, when China's per capita GDP becomes comparable to that of developed nations, there will be no bigger market for its products than China itself.
The main lesson we as Brits could and should learn is that there is no alternative to European integration. We need to set aside our reservations and embrace the EU fully, join the Euro, and stand proud and tall in the world. We are Europe and we are mighty!
In which case why not go the whole hog and abolish every nation state except China, the US, India, Russia and Japan and instead form the rest into trading blocks ie South America/Mercosur, Europe/EU, Africa/African Union, Middle East/Arab League, ASEAN/South East Asia. The UK could choose whether to join the EU or unite with Australia, New Zealand and Canada
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
Did you see Emily Thornberry on Newsnight the other day alongside a former State Department official? He was completely cringing at her assertion that we have such a superior understanding of the Middle East than the Americans because of our long-standing links, i.e. the legacy of empire.
What is there to say about Emily Thornberry?
She'd poll worse than Jezza.
I doubt it. She presses a lot of whitemiddleclassmale40susedtothemrulingoverus-equivalent buttons.
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
Although there are some voices in UKIP that seem very keen to resurrect the Commonwealth as a trading bloc, which I consider optimistic given the two largest members are nuclear armed adversaries.
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy. Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
Although there are some voices in UKIP that seem very keen to resurrect the Commonwealth as a trading bloc, which I consider optimistic given the two largest members are nuclear armed adversaries.
The EU seem to be falling over themselves to try and attract Canada, Australia and India.
Our historic relationships concern them. Likewise, our links with the US.
They know what the export market share was for these countries and Europe in the UK before we joined the EU.
A reversion to those shares is literally hundreds of billions walking away.
A Harris poll gives Macron his biggest lead ever. If people start asking who is best placed to defeat Macron in the second round, what's the answer? It could be Mélenchon.
The top 30% of the population will never vote for Mélenchon. They would rather vote for Le Pen. They would rather vote for Pétain. Why? Because of Mélenchon's tax policy. That leaves the other 70%.
Macron 24% Le Pen 22% Fillon 20% Mélenchon 19% Hamon 8% Dupont-Aignan 4%
I wonder if the fifth and sixth placed candidates might fade somewhat into the finish, as people try to avoid a wasted vote. ND-A's voters would probably split between MLP and Fillon, while Hamon would probably go between Macron and Melenchon.
Just a thought.
It is quite remarkable that the official Socialist party candidate, the candidate of the party of the President less we forget, is polling fifth and spoke about as a wasted vote. While the Socialists have come third before, I can't recall this happening in my lifetime at least.
A Harris poll gives Macron his biggest lead ever. If people start asking who is best placed to defeat Macron in the second round, what's the answer? It could be Mélenchon.
The top 30% of the population will never vote for Mélenchon. They would rather vote for Le Pen. They would rather vote for Pétain. Why? Because of Mélenchon's tax policy. That leaves the other 70%.
Macron 24% Le Pen 22% Fillon 20% Mélenchon 19% Hamon 8% Dupont-Aignan 4%
Opinionway and Ifop both have Le Pen ahead and Melenchon is least likely to make the runoff of the top 4
A Harris poll gives Macron his biggest lead ever. If people start asking who is best placed to defeat Macron in the second round, what's the answer? It could be Mélenchon.
The top 30% of the population will never vote for Mélenchon. They would rather vote for Le Pen. They would rather vote for Pétain. Why? Because of Mélenchon's tax policy. That leaves the other 70%.
Macron 24% Le Pen 22% Fillon 20% Mélenchon 19% Hamon 8% Dupont-Aignan 4%
Opinionway and Ifop both have Le Pen ahead and Melenchon is least likely to make the runoff of the top 4
1st to 4th are margin of error numbrs.
Nothing more than a hunch, but it 'feels' like Macron will lose. Where's the momentum?
A Harris poll gives Macron his biggest lead ever. If people start asking who is best placed to defeat Macron in the second round, what's the answer? It could be Mélenchon.
The top 30% of the population will never vote for Mélenchon. They would rather vote for Le Pen. They would rather vote for Pétain. Why? Because of Mélenchon's tax policy. That leaves the other 70%.
Macron 24% Le Pen 22% Fillon 20% Mélenchon 19% Hamon 8% Dupont-Aignan 4%
Opinionway and Ifop both have Le Pen ahead and Melenchon is least likely to make the runoff of the top 4
1st to 4th are margin of error numbrs.
Nothing more than a hunch, but it 'feels' like Macron will lose. Where's the momentum?
It will be close between him and Fillon to face Le Pen in the runoff certainly
A Harris poll gives Macron his biggest lead ever. If people start asking who is best placed to defeat Macron in the second round, what's the answer? It could be Mélenchon.
The top 30% of the population will never vote for Mélenchon. They would rather vote for Le Pen. They would rather vote for Pétain. Why? Because of Mélenchon's tax policy. That leaves the other 70%.
Macron 24% Le Pen 22% Fillon 20% Mélenchon 19% Hamon 8% Dupont-Aignan 4%
Opinionway and Ifop both have Le Pen ahead and Melenchon is least likely to make the runoff of the top 4
1st to 4th are margin of error numbers.
Nothing more than a hunch, but it 'feels' like Macron will lose. Where's the momentum?
I agree. It is now "too close to call" regarding which of the leading 4 will make it to the second round. Macron and Le Pen are steadily losing ground and Melenchon is coming up rapidly in the left lane. Betting on the outcome is becoming significantly more uncertain. If the final round is between Le Pen and Melenchon, I suspect that French folk will opt for the neo-Fascist rather than the neo-Communist, whatever they might tell opinion pollsters.
Comments
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS?locations=XC-GB
China has made very little progress in developing a capital goods industry, and while that could well change, it has not yet. Indeed, capital goods production in China - as a percent of GDP - has fallen by almost a fifth since 2001.
Was this OGH in drag?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/13/most-of-labours-support-is-down-to-corbyn-diane-abbott-says
She's missed her calling as a comic, that's for sure. How bad does she think the Labour brand is that they would drop so much without him?
Sweden isn't under the 'NATO umbrella'. But it spends 1.5% of GDP, also less than we spend.
It should cost NATO members less to organise defence collectively. So perhaps it's reasonable for Canada, a NATO member, to spend only 1%. If so the UK could be the odd one out.
Perhaps there's something more to trade deficits than merely competition with China.
For instance the loss of the buggy whip industry is a standard example of progress to the car.
Is there some way one might make money from Chinese progress? For instance a special knife to cut through the smog. Or just some kind of mask?
China 0.43%
UK 0.53%
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/uk.html
PS yes I looked carefully - it says "in China", not "of China".
The main lesson we as Brits could and should learn is that there is no alternative to European integration. We need to set aside our reservations and embrace the EU fully, join the Euro, and stand proud and tall in the world. We are Europe and we are mighty!
I'll always have a soft spot for it it as it was the last book I gave my dad before he died.
I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy.
Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.
I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/13/politics/trump-russia-british-intelligence/index.html
Most Brits can see the way the world is going. It isn't euro-centric.
The top 30% of the population will never vote for Mélenchon. They would rather vote for Le Pen. They would rather vote for Pétain. Why? Because of Mélenchon's tax policy. That leaves the other 70%.
Macron 24%
Le Pen 22%
Fillon 20%
Mélenchon 19%
Hamon 8%
Dupont-Aignan 4%
Just a thought.
"Labour could fall to below 10% in the polls if any of Jeremy Corbyn’s vocal critics try to replace him because most of the party’s support is down to his leadership, according to Diane Abbott.
The shadow home secretary estimated that Corbyn was responsible for 18-20 percentage points of the support enjoyed by Labour, which is at its lowest level since the 2015 election and joint equal to its lowest performance in ICM polls going back to 1983."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/13/most-of-labours-support-is-down-to-corbyn-diane-abbott-says
She'd poll worse than Jezza.
Our historic relationships concern them. Likewise, our links with the US.
They know what the export market share was for these countries and Europe in the UK before we joined the EU.
A reversion to those shares is literally hundreds of billions walking away.
NEW THREAD
Nothing more than a hunch, but it 'feels' like Macron will lose. Where's the momentum?