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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The nearer you are to Russia the greater you attach to the importance of NATO
Well done to YouGov for putting together this cross comparison of view of NATO in a range of different countries.
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More don't knows in Britain I see, even though Denmark and Norway have higher 'no longer a useful role' score.
https://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2017/04/07/2050135_presidentielle-2017-les-sondages-des-echos-web-tete-0211955709354.jpg
* If Germany, France, Italy and Spain spent 2% on defence, they would have military force that would make Putin's games moot.
One for the Hall of Fame of political impersonation.
They’re our next-door neighbors. And you can actually see Russia, from land, here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska.
If someone wants to have a debate as to which side is most to blame, and why we need to have sides, that's a different matter.
Melanchon still inching up on latest ppolls, Le Pen faltering. exciting, whatever our preferences.
Palin: "They [Russia] are right there, right next to our state [Alaska]"
https://youtube.com/watch?v=brDCpvvIR48
Fey: "I can see Russia from my house"
https://youtube.com/watch?v=RKrUdIkoJEU
Harris:
Macron 24 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1) Lowest poll rating this year
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melenchon 19 (+1)
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-Indeed-Intentions-vote-election-presidentielle-LCP.pdf
https://twitter.com/DExEUgov/status/852534216025939968
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-military-drops-mother-bombs-isis-afghanistan/
Cue Trump tonight "We dropped the big bomb. We have the biggest bombs we do, the biggest bombs. ISIS no more, big bomb".
Sweden's next door to Russia. It spends less than 1.5% on defence and seems pretty content to be outside NATO.
'Collective security' is meant to reduce costs, not increase them.
Which is a very reasonable point to make when challenged about her foreign affairs experience
Hmm. Regardless of polls, I'm not actually that sure a lot of British people would even know what NATO was if you asked them, much less caring that much about it.
I think the much bigger problems for Corbyn are Trident, and his general pacifist outlook, especially with regards to jihadist groups. I don't think most people view Corbyn as a "terrorist sympathiser", but they do see him as ridiculously naive and not understanding how "the real world" works - they think he as PM would just try to sit down and negotiate with ISIS over a nice cup of tea with some naive view that they'd be "reasonable", and thus he (and by extension the country) would be ridden roughshod over - and, to top it off, that without Trident, Britain would then be a sitting duck to all the world's baddies that he'd just tried to appease.
BIG BAD BOOM!!
Estonian defence budget 2017, $498m.
Thanks to Chris from Paris's early tips on Macron and Melenchon I am green across all outcomes. I owe him a bottle or two if we ever meet up.
Europe's various non-aligned countries have perfectly viable armed services but they're for self-defence only and nonoe of them have ever seriously considered acquiring their own nuclear weapons.
If Sweden doesn't need nuclear bombs, why does the UK? Strangely, no-one has ever answered this.
Corbyn knows a thing or two about this.
Edited to add, Le Pen's 22 is not only the lowest this year, it is the lowest since January 2015, when she also recorded 22 points.
TBH, since they cried "Wolf" so loudly that time when it wasn't that warranted, it's not much surprise that Americans ignored the media a few years later when the much bigger Wolf of Trump came.
https://youtu.be/xXjyJWUmTu0
Le Pen 23.5%
Macron 22.5%
Fillon 19%
Melenchon 19%
Hamon 8.5%
Runoff
Macron 58.5%
Le Pen 41.5%
(31% of Fillon voters now switching to Le Pen in the runoff)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_13-04-2017.pdf
Several in the US media (like Bill Kristol) seem to have done a huge U-Turn on Trump because of the missile strikes in Syria and now this. Don't get how one can just be impressed by bomb dropping in of itself.
Two Months In, Trump Finds Big Promises Are Hard to Keep https://bloom.bg/2oqwtRO
A GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb, nicknamed MOAB, was dropped at 7 p.m. local time Thursday, the sources said.
The MOAB is also known as the “mother of all bombs.” A MOAB is a 21,600-pound, GPS-guided munition that is America’s most powerful non-nuclear bomb."
http://fox4kc.com/2017/04/13/us-drops-largest-non-nuclear-bomb-in-afghanistan/
Now he's lavishing praise on China!
Huge U-Turns on NATO, China and Syria in less than a week - IMHO, I think it's all to get his poll numbers up. There seems to be no clear strategy from his adminstration re Syria. He knows this last 100 days haven't gone well, with Gorsuch the only truly 'big' win he's had. Trouble is, dropping bombs is not going to move his numbers significantly.
https://twitter.com/jake_wilde/status/852584969117589504
They are usually fairly favourable towards Le Pen.
Edit. Sorry that was Elabe
Most of Labour's support is down to Corbyn, Diane Abbott says
I think she should have just stopped at: Most of Labour's support is down.
https://twitter.com/DExEUgov/status/852539060891594752
Another random point: the US includes a lot more in its military spending number than the UK does. For example the Department of Veteran Affairs pays for healthcare for veterans (rather than Medicair/Medicaid) and that therefore is included in the defence budget.
Random point number three: the worst NATO country (ignoring Iceland) as far as military spend goes is... no, not Gemany or Italy... but Canada who doesn't even make 1%.
Off topic, but on the endlessly tedious subject of Brexit, the government could take immediate steps to provide certainty for EU nationals living here. It doesn't mean giving unilateral guarantees, but they could for instance create a fast track to permanent residency for people who have lived here for x years exercising treaty rights. They could exempt the bizarre loopholes that arose from no-one ever foreseeing Brexit, ie the requirement for stay at home mums/carers to have private health insurance for periods outside of employment. They could do this very easily, with minimal legislation, because they know precisely what the issues are. It has nothing at all to do with article 50.
It is very interesting, and says much about Brexit and the forces behind it, as to how days go by, and nothing happens on this front.
Le Pen 23.5%
Macron 22.5%
Fillon 19.0%
Mélenchon 19.0%
I think she will make it to the final round but will then be soundly beaten by whoever is there with her.