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Comments
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The EU isn't merely the continental power though, is it? A significant part of the UK as originally constituted is quite happy in the EU, in the single currency, and has no intention of changing that. We are not Japan to the EU's China.Animal_pb said:
So, in essence, your position is:
1.) our negotiating position is hopeless and we should give up without a fight; and
2.) accept that we must now have a deferential relationship with the continental power.
Not very British, is it?0 -
most of RCS comments on exports relate to how a balanced BOP is preferable, not that unending exports is the source of eternal joy.FF43 said:
In the short term, yes. But that's probably not going to continue, as RCS has covered many times here. At which point we will rely on those exports that we are discarding so casually.Alanbrooke said:
no they arentFF43 said:
OK, but exports are funding the internal consumption, back to my point.
expanding credit is funding consumption
if we were export dependent our economy would be in free fall
you have to both export and supply your domestic market. Too much of the UK BOP problem is because we have allowed our production base to decay. It;s not even in hi tech sensitive areas but HP sauce ( NL ), Bendicks mints ( D )?
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No. It belongs to Canada now.Theuniondivvie said:
The Cashmeister has spoken, it's not ours whatever happens.TheScreamingEagles said:
It will happen once you have a government in Holyrood good with the economy and less obsessed with Indyref2.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm actually a but more concerned about Dave's promise of a £200b oil and gas boom that we would share in if we voted No. Any sign of that coming down the line?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was stolen by Dave hiding the secret oil fields and the whisky export duty revenues from Scotland.TGOHF said:
Actually they didn't lose that one either - it was blatantly stolen from them by the duplicitous "vow" or something...Beverley_C said:
In that case, a generation in Scotland is about 3 years. If they can breed that fast we are all in troubleTGOHF said:
Think there was a minor one in 2014 but the Nat Borg have wiped it from their memory vaults for at least a generation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, they lost the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, that's what you meant?AlastairMeeks said:
Except one.scotslass said:David
I expect the SNP to win the election as they have won every democratic contest in Scotland since 2010.
You want that boom, you need to make Ruth Davidson First Minister.
https://twitter.com/ChristinaSNP/status/8524613028995153920 -
Inspiring stuff for us Europhiles (from a Euro-conservative):
https://www.facebook.com/EPPGroup/videos/10154532798547689/
I wish the Remain side had felt able to have a bit more of that sort of thing, and a bit less of the "Brexit will cost you N zillion quid". Sometimes I think we collectively are like the Bourbons, knoing the price of everything and the value of nothing.
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Another war brewing !!David_Evershed said:
No. It belongs to Canada now.Theuniondivvie said:
The Cashmeister has spoken, it's not ours whatever happens.TheScreamingEagles said:
It will happen once you have a government in Holyrood good with the economy and less obsessed with Indyref2.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm actually a but more concerned about Dave's promise of a £200b oil and gas boom that we would share in if we voted No. Any sign of that coming down the line?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was stolen by Dave hiding the secret oil fields and the whisky export duty revenues from Scotland.TGOHF said:
Actually they didn't lose that one either - it was blatantly stolen from them by the duplicitous "vow" or something...Beverley_C said:
In that case, a generation in Scotland is about 3 years. If they can breed that fast we are all in troubleTGOHF said:
Think there was a minor one in 2014 but the Nat Borg have wiped it from their memory vaults for at least a generation.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, they lost the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, that's what you meant?AlastairMeeks said:
Except one.scotslass said:David
I expect the SNP to win the election as they have won every democratic contest in Scotland since 2010.
You want that boom, you need to make Ruth Davidson First Minister.
https://twitter.com/ChristinaSNP/status/8524613028995153920 -
Latest French poll has Melanchon faltering slightly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
It's possible that the recent focus on his potential has drawn attention to his programme, which even I as a born-again leftist feel is a tiny bit bonkers.0 -
A.) it is now; B.) your second observation is irrelevant (even if true, which is debatable) to the first; and C.) actually, we kind of are - it's an ok-ish parallel.williamglenn said:
The EU isn't merely the continental power though, is it? A significant part of the UK as originally constituted is quite happy in the EU, in the single currency, and has no intention of changing that. We are not Japan to the EU's China.Animal_pb said:
So, in essence, your position is:
1.) our negotiating position is hopeless and we should give up without a fight; and
2.) accept that we must now have a deferential relationship with the continental power.
Not very British, is it?
But I know you aren't going to agree, so let's not clog up the airwaves beating this to death.0 -
A land border in Northern Ireland which the government has no clue what to do about says that it is highly relevant.Animal_pb said:
A.) it is now; B.) your second observation is irrelevant (even if true, which is debatable) to the first; and C.) actually, we kind of are - it's an ok-ish parallel.williamglenn said:
The EU isn't merely the continental power though, is it? A significant part of the UK as originally constituted is quite happy in the EU, in the single currency, and has no intention of changing that. We are not Japan to the EU's China.Animal_pb said:
So, in essence, your position is:
1.) our negotiating position is hopeless and we should give up without a fight; and
2.) accept that we must now have a deferential relationship with the continental power.
Not very British, is it?
But I know you aren't going to agree, so let's not clog up the airwaves beating this to death.0 -
Tyson went belt-fed wombat meltdown on here not so long ago when he revealed a spectacularly intense and all-consuming hatred of smileys.Beverley_C said:0 -
It raises awkward questions for both Remainers and Leavers. For Remainers because we will get something worse than what we had before and Leavers because we will get something that goes against what they voted for. That's the knot we have to untie.Animal_pb said:
And you think making the best of it involves abject surrender? It's a view, I suppose.
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What will be "worse than we had before"?FF43 said:
It raises awkward questions for both Remainers and Leavers. For Remainers because we will get something worse than what we had before and Leavers because we will get something that goes against what they voted for. That's the knot we have to untie.Animal_pb said:
And you think making the best of it involves abject surrender? It's a view, I suppose.0 -
David_Evershed said:
Proposal for Scotland to become a Province of Canada.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39570585
Did anyone ask Canada?
Whither Scotland?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQOMxz-O7Sc&list=RDVQOMxz-O7Sc#t=00 -
A Ceuta style wall around Gibraltar?GeoffM said:
What will be "worse than we had before"?FF43 said:
It raises awkward questions for both Remainers and Leavers. For Remainers because we will get something worse than what we had before and Leavers because we will get something that goes against what they voted for. That's the knot we have to untie.Animal_pb said:
And you think making the best of it involves abject surrender? It's a view, I suppose.0 -
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?Malmesbury said:
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....SeanT said:
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.DavidL said:The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.0 -
Actually I'm saying both.
Now you are moving the goalposts and comparing a two foreign products whereas your original post was talking about comparing a foreign product with a homegrown one and how that would benefit UK companies like Ebac.
"We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac).
If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise."
If we get no deal then EU imports to the UK will drop. No question. Volume and value.
Also UK home grown production will rise. Probably mostly for domestic consumtion but not all. As long as it's profitable it will happen. Will affect different industries differently and at different speeds.
Initially (and perhaps ever) the UK production will not be as large as the move to alternative sources of import (as in the case of my Samsung). Not our problem but the EU's.
My key point remains - if a good is substitutable either domestically or by non-EU imports then the UK has nothing to lose. The EU does. That may not be true if there are classes of EU product that we can only get from them. Then we'll just have to absorb a tariff (if we choose to do so).
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That'd be nice. Keep the dagos out.williamglenn said:
A Ceuta style wall around Gibraltar?GeoffM said:
What will be "worse than we had before"?FF43 said:
It raises awkward questions for both Remainers and Leavers. For Remainers because we will get something worse than what we had before and Leavers because we will get something that goes against what they voted for. That's the knot we have to untie.Animal_pb said:
And you think making the best of it involves abject surrender? It's a view, I suppose.
Hopefully when Trump's wall builders are finished there will be some barbed wire left over.0 -
For Remainers, a loss of influence as well as restrictions on movement and trade are probably the main ones. To compensate, UK governments will probably agree to pretty much everything the EU asks of it, even if nominally they can now refuse, dependent on both sides being willing to deal. This isn't the reason why people voted Leave, in my estimation.GeoffM said:
What will be "worse than we had before"?FF43 said:
It raises awkward questions for both Remainers and Leavers. For Remainers because we will get something worse than what we had before and Leavers because we will get something that goes against what they voted for. That's the knot we have to untie.Animal_pb said:
And you think making the best of it involves abject surrender? It's a view, I suppose.0 -
David_Evershed said:
Proposal for Scotland to become a Province of Canada.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39570585
Did anyone ask Canada?
Scotland now in play to be taken over?
How much will they pay?
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Ouch!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39586391The Beeb said:
Lawyers for a passenger forcibly removed from a United Airlines flight have filed an emergency court request for the airline to preserve evidence.
David Dao was filmed being dragged off the overbooked flight at Chicago O'Hare airport, bloodied and screaming, in a video watched millions of times online.
United Airlines said it would refund the ticket costs of all passengers on Sunday's flight.0 -
Presumably the fratricidal Irish Civil war, due to partition and the Irish Free State vs the 32 counties sovereignty supporters.FattyBolger said:
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?Malmesbury said:
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....SeanT said:
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.DavidL said:The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.0 -
WhGeoffM said:
Tyson went belt-fed wombat meltdown on here not so long ago when he revealed a spectacularly intense and all-consuming hatred of smileys.Beverley_C said:
ps! 0 -
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.FattyBolger said:
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?Malmesbury said:
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....SeanT said:
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.DavidL said:The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.0 -
If tariffs on washing machine imports are introduced...Patrick said:
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.0 -
De Valera's big mistake was not going in person to London in 1921 for the peace talks. He in placed himself on a par with the King as Head of State and therefore didn't attend.FattyBolger said:
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?Malmesbury said:
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....SeanT said:
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.DavidL said:The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
Not sure if that's what Malmesbury is getting at though.0 -
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.FF43 said:
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.FattyBolger said:
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?Malmesbury said:
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....SeanT said:
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.DavidL said:The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.
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I don't. What is it?foxinsoxuk said:
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.FF43 said:
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.FattyBolger said:
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?Malmesbury said:
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....SeanT said:
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.DavidL said:The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.0 -
Brexit Britain risks becoming DeValera's Ireland.GeoffM said:
I don't. What is it?foxinsoxuk said:
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.FF43 said:
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.FattyBolger said:
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?Malmesbury said:
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....SeanT said:
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.DavidL said:The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.0 -
As a Scot, I see the similarities more between Ireland and Scotland. First of all, that Ireland was an economic basketcase for the first fifty years of its existence. Even if we would (almost certainly) avoid some really bad mistakes the Irish made, I am not keen, for example, on copying the Irish welfare policy: we will stop you dying in the street, but if you can work and don't have a job you emigrate. I also find Ireland to be a culturally insular place, which I don't really want Scotland to copy, even though they have had deserved success in recent yearsfoxinsoxuk said:
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.FF43 said:
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.0 -
I think Samsung washing machines for the UK market are made in Poland so your choice had no affect on EU-UK BoPPatrick said:
I am comparing like with like. I have a Samsung washing machine. A top end one. I could have bought a Miele or a Siemens. I went Samsung (PC World doing a great deal in May). My choice made no impact to our national BoP but it did cost Miele or Siemens one unit of sales. At every level of quality and price we have EU options and non-EU options. The non-EU ones tend to cluster at the cheap and cheerful end - but not by any means exclusively so. We're about to find out how much Germany really values this market share.Beverley_C said:
I was not saying that we do - what I was saying is that the unspoken assumption in Patrick's argument was that he was comparing like with like. That may or may not be the case. As I said "... in the past ... " that was not the case.Alanbrooke said:
do we live in the 1970s forever ?Beverley_C said:
You are making the assumption that the homemade and German products are of equal quality and reliability. In the past that was not the case and was the reason a lot of people bought German or Japanese products - because ours were inferior and often more expensive.Patrick said:...
If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves.
Reshoring of manufacturing after Brexit is largely a myth. As the Jaguar CEO said, the UK market is too small to support domestic manufacturers of components and it was only being part of the single market that gave us that scale.0 -
Patrick said:
Now you are moving the goalposts and comparing a two foreign products whereas your original post was talking about comparing a foreign product with a homegrown one and how that would benefit UK companies like Ebac.
"We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac).
If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise."
Does anyone realistically believe that we are going to have tariffs on goods bought and sold between the EU and the UK? It's absurd. It's just as absurd as someone claiming their 85 yr old grandmother who is originally Spanish and has lived here for 40 years is going to get deported. Utter nonsense.
Where the real negotiations take place is around frictionless access to the single market and the maintaining of more sophisticated supply chains with the minimum of paperwork (if any).
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My Dad always wanted me to go into aviation law. At times like this I wish I'd listened to him!Beverley_C said:Ouch!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39586391The Beeb said:
Lawyers for a passenger forcibly removed from a United Airlines flight have filed an emergency court request for the airline to preserve evidence.
David Dao was filmed being dragged off the overbooked flight at Chicago O'Hare airport, bloodied and screaming, in a video watched millions of times online.
United Airlines said it would refund the ticket costs of all passengers on Sunday's flight.0 -
And yet the press is full of stories about people scrabbling around trying to get British Citizenship.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit Britain risks becoming DeValera's Ireland.GeoffM said:
I don't. What is it?foxinsoxuk said:
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.FF43 said:
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.FattyBolger said:
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?Malmesbury said:
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....SeanT said:
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.DavidL said:The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.0 -
Possibly.rkrkrk said:
If tariffs on washing machine imports are introduced...Patrick said:
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.
A £300 washing machine might attract a WTO tariff of a few %. So nominally now costing around £315. But the supplier may not wish to lose share. They will inevitably absorb some of the £15 from their profit margin. Sorry Miele. Let's say that leaves Mr UK Consumer being asked for £307 by Miele. The rather nice looking Samsung in the next aisle is being deliberately aggressively priced at £275 to win share. The consumer is getting a better choice of offers now.
The big hairy point in the corner is that this is not earth shattering stuff. All producers and consumers will settle into a new free market equilibrium. Some new products will get a look in for the first time. We'll still traipse round Currys on a Sunday buying washing machines at essentially the same price as today. And we'll make a few more too. It's not the apocalypse some remainers paint.
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Okay - good to see you backing down from zero price risk.Patrick said:
Possibly.rkrkrk said:
If tariffs on washing machine imports are introduced...Patrick said:
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.
A £300 washing machine might attract a WTO tariff of a few %. So nominally now costing around £315. But the supplier may not wish to lose share. They will inevitably absorb some of the £15 from their profit margin. Sorry Miele. Let's say that leaves Mr UK Consumer being asked for £307 by Miele. The rather nice looking Samsung in the next aisle is being deliberately aggressively priced at £275 to win share. The consumer is getting a better choice of offers now.
The big hairy point in the corner is that this is not earth shattering stuff. All producers and consumers will settle into a new free market equilibrium. Some new products will get a look in for the first time. We'll still traipse round Currys on a Sunday buying washing machines at essentially the same price as today. And we'll make a few more too. It's not the apocalypse some remainers paint.
You're right that small price increases from tariffs won't be a huge deal.
But it will be a net negative not positive for consumers.
Non tariff barriers will be more problematic but a deal can be found.
Edit - it's unlikely to be one that doesn't involve loss of sovereignty in the eyes of Brexiteers.0 -
Non-zero price risk if you are still stubbornly determined to buy an EU sourced product!rkrkrk said:
Okay - good to see you backing down from zero price risk.Patrick said:
Possibly.rkrkrk said:
If tariffs on washing machine imports are introduced...Patrick said:
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.
A £300 washing machine might attract a WTO tariff of a few %. So nominally now costing around £315. But the supplier may not wish to lose share. They will inevitably absorb some of the £15 from their profit margin. Sorry Miele. Let's say that leaves Mr UK Consumer being asked for £307 by Miele. The rather nice looking Samsung in the next aisle is being deliberately aggressively priced at £275 to win share. The consumer is getting a better choice of offers now.
The big hairy point in the corner is that this is not earth shattering stuff. All producers and consumers will settle into a new free market equilibrium. Some new products will get a look in for the first time. We'll still traipse round Currys on a Sunday buying washing machines at essentially the same price as today. And we'll make a few more too. It's not the apocalypse some remainers paint.
You're right that small price increases from tariffs won't be a huge deal.
But it will be a net negative not positive for consumers.
Non tariff barriers will be more problematic but a deal can be found.
Zero price risk if you shop around. Probably some very good and aggressive deals being offered as the UK becomes a price war zone.
Overall positive for consumers.
Not a positive for consumers whose demand is for 'that Miele' rather than 'a really nice washing machine at a good price'.
0 -
" real negotiations take place is around frictionless access to the single market " - is that even a possibility?notme said:Patrick said:
Now you are moving the goalposts and comparing a two foreign products whereas your original post was talking about comparing a foreign product with a homegrown one and how that would benefit UK companies like Ebac.
"We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac).
If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise."
Does anyone realistically believe that we are going to have tariffs on goods bought and sold between the EU and the UK? It's absurd. It's just as absurd as someone claiming their 85 yr old grandmother who is originally Spanish and has lived here for 40 years is going to get deported. Utter nonsense.
Where the real negotiations take place is around frictionless access to the single market and the maintaining of more sophisticated supply chains with the minimum of paperwork (if any).0 -
Is it a coincidence that as soon as The Met police cut the number of "stop and search" for political correctness (led by TMay) gun and knife crime has surged in London? I have a feeling the two are linked,especially since it was consistently falling in recent years.0
-
You are extremely complacent. No tariff effectively means single market without the benefit of paperwork. That will not happen.notme said:Patrick said:
Now you are moving the goalposts and comparing a two foreign products whereas your original post was talking about comparing a foreign product with a homegrown one and how that would benefit UK companies like Ebac.
"We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac).
If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise."
Does anyone realistically believe that we are going to have tariffs on goods bought and sold between the EU and the UK? It's absurd. It's just as absurd as someone claiming their 85 yr old grandmother who is originally Spanish and has lived here for 40 years is going to get deported. Utter nonsense.
Where the real negotiations take place is around frictionless access to the single market and the maintaining of more sophisticated supply chains with the minimum of paperwork (if any).0 -
The young have already started to emigrate.foxinsoxuk said:
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.FF43 said:
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.FattyBolger said:
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?Malmesbury said:
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....SeanT said:
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.DavidL said:The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.0 -
Yeah I'm sorry but i don't think you really understand the economics on this.Patrick said:
Non-zero price risk if you are still stubbornly determined to buy an EU sourced product!rkrkrk said:
Okay - good to see you backing down from zero price risk.Patrick said:
Possibly.rkrkrk said:
If tariffs on washing machine imports are introduced...Patrick said:
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.
A £300 washing machine might attract a WTO tariff of a few %. So nominally now costing around £315. But the supplier may not wish to lose share. They will inevitably absorb some of the £15 from their profit margin. Sorry Miele. Let's say that leaves Mr UK Consumer being asked for £307 by Miele. The rather nice looking Samsung in the next aisle is being deliberately aggressively priced at £275 to win share. The consumer is getting a better choice of offers now.
The big hairy point in the corner is that this is not earth shattering stuff. All producers and consumers will settle into a new free market equilibrium. Some new products will get a look in for the first time. We'll still traipse round Currys on a Sunday buying washing machines at essentially the same price as today. And we'll make a few more too. It's not the apocalypse some remainers paint.
You're right that small price increases from tariffs won't be a huge deal.
But it will be a net negative not positive for consumers.
Non tariff barriers will be more problematic but a deal can be found.
Zero price risk if you shop around. Probably some very good and aggressive deals being offered as the UK becomes a price war zone.
Overall positive for consumers.
Not a positive for consumers whose demand is for 'that Miele' rather than 'a really nice washing machine at a good price'.
Google effect of tariffs on consumers.
If EU companies' prices go up because of tariffs... That reduces price competition and means domestic/non EU companies can raise their prices.0 -
and also full of people trying to get EU, particularly Irish citizenship like our own Bev C, Nd ironically Mr Farage if reports are correct!tlg86 said:
And yet the press is full of stories about people scrabbling around trying to get British Citizenship.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit Britain risks becoming DeValera's Ireland.GeoffM said:
I don't. What is it?foxinsoxuk said:
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.FF43 said:
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.FattyBolger said:
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?Malmesbury said:
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....SeanT said:
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.DavidL said:The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.0 -
'stop and search for political correctness'nunu said:Is it a coincidence that as soon as The Met police cut the number of "stop and search" for political correctness (led by TMay) gun and knife crime has surged in London? I have a feeling the two are linked,especially since it was consistently falling in recent years.
"Excuse me sir, do you know what the Q stands for in LGBTIQ+? If not, you're nicked!"0 -
-
They can. The ones who don't then clean up the market share. Market equilibrium returns. A higher price generally only results from a higher supply cost generally. If only some of the supply options get higher cost it moves the share around between suppliers.rkrkrk said:
...means domestic/non EU companies can raise their prices.Patrick said:
Non-zero price risk if you are still stubbornly determined to buy an EU sourced product!rkrkrk said:
Okay - good to see you backing down from zero price risk.Patrick said:
Possibly.rkrkrk said:
If tariffs on washing machine imports are introduced...Patrick said:
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.
A £300 washing machine might attract a WTO tariff of a few %. So nominally now costing around £315. But the supplier may not wish to lose share. They will inevitably absorb some of the £15 from their profit margin. Sorry Miele. Let's say that leaves Mr UK Consumer being asked for £307 by Miele. The rather nice looking Samsung in the next aisle is being deliberately aggressively priced at £275 to win share. The consumer is getting a better choice of offers now.
The big hairy point in the corner is that this is not earth shattering stuff. All producers and consumers will settle into a new free market equilibrium. Some new products will get a look in for the first time. We'll still traipse round Currys on a Sunday buying washing machines at essentially the same price as today. And we'll make a few more too. It's not the apocalypse some remainers paint.
You're right that small price increases from tariffs won't be a huge deal.
But it will be a net negative not positive for consumers.
Non tariff barriers will be more problematic but a deal can be found.
Zero price risk if you shop around. Probably some very good and aggressive deals being offered as the UK becomes a price war zone.
Overall positive for consumers.
Not a positive for consumers whose demand is for 'that Miele' rather than 'a really nice washing machine at a good price'.
The phenomenon you describe would co-exist with price gouging by other suppliers.
You also omitted the Google bit saying 'more domestic companies are willing to produce the good'. That's not a tiny detail either.0 -
SandyRentool said:
'stop and search for political correctness'nunu said:Is it a coincidence that as soon as The Met police cut the number of "stop and search" for political correctness (led by TMay) gun and knife crime has surged in London? I have a feeling the two are linked,especially since it was consistently falling in recent years.
"Excuse me sir, do you know what the Q stands for in LGBTIQ+? If not, you're nicked!"
Please sir, is it Quisling?
0 -
Can someone direct me to UK owned or made washing machines ?
I can find US, German, Japanese, Korean, Italian, Turkish...0 -
Do we lose the snakes and gain leprechauns?foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit Britain risks becoming DeValera's Ireland.GeoffM said:
I don't. What is it?foxinsoxuk said:
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.FF43 said:
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.FattyBolger said:
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?Malmesbury said:
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....SeanT said:
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.DavidL said:The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.0 -
It's QWERTY - a shorthand way of adding the whole of the keyboard to the acronym.MarkHopkins said:SandyRentool said:
'stop and search for political correctness'nunu said:Is it a coincidence that as soon as The Met police cut the number of "stop and search" for political correctness (led by TMay) gun and knife crime has surged in London? I have a feeling the two are linked,especially since it was consistently falling in recent years.
"Excuse me sir, do you know what the Q stands for in LGBTIQ+? If not, you're nicked!"
Please sir, is it Quisling?0 -
https://www.ebac.com/washing-machinesPulpstar said:Can someone direct me to UK owned or made washing machines ?
I can find US, German, Japanese, Korean, Italian, Turkish...0 -
Interestingly Tim having a good go at Ruth !TGOHF said:0 -
Ireland was way way behind where Scotland are when it went on its own, hardly comparable.FF43 said:
As a Scot, I see the similarities more between Ireland and Scotland. First of all, that Ireland was an economic basketcase for the first fifty years of its existence. Even if we would (almost certainly) avoid some really bad mistakes the Irish made, I am not keen, for example, on copying the Irish welfare policy: we will stop you dying in the street, but if you can work and don't have a job you emigrate. I also find Ireland to be a culturally insular place, which I don't really want Scotland to copy, even though they have had deserved success in recent yearsfoxinsoxuk said:
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.FF43 said:
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.0 -
http://emn.ie/emn/statisticsfoxinsoxuk said:
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.FF43 said:
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.FattyBolger said:
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?Malmesbury said:
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....SeanT said:
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.DavidL said:The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.
Emigration from Ireland - see link is consistently higher over the past few years than before 2010.0 -
More evidence of the disarray in our government.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/13/european-couple-stunned-as-uk-born-children-denied-residency0 -
Bought by Whirlpool in 2014 which is based in Michigan.IanB2 said:
Are Creda and Hotpoint no longer British?Pulpstar said:Can someone direct me to UK owned or made washing machines ?
I can find US, German, Japanese, Korean, Italian, Turkish...
Although ownership got messy long before that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotpoint0 -
A Guardian link?williamglenn said:More evidence of the disarray in our government.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/13/european-couple-stunned-as-uk-born-children-denied-residency
{Fake News Shield mode=up}
I bet there's more to it than that URL suggests!0 -
Is it a "condensing" dryer, and have you emptied the tank...?SeanT said:Serious question. I spent a lot of money on a (German) combo washer/dryer for my glam new kitchen, in the fond hope it meant I could dump my tumble dryer (which uglifies my bedroom). The damn combo dryer is utterly shite. Couldn't dry a slightly damp napkin in six hours.
Is this coz of the EU?! Or some weird law?0 -
Yes, for the first time since the plantation in the nineties and noughties Ireland switched to net inward migration. The GFC reversed that for a few years, but just about back to inward flow.felix said:
http://emn.ie/emn/statisticsfoxinsoxuk said:
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.FF43 said:
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.FattyBolger said:
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?Malmesbury said:
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....SeanT said:
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.DavidL said:The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.
Emigration from Ireland - see link is consistently higher over the past few years than before 2010.
Immigrants tend to go where the work is, the quickest way of stopping migration is crashing the economy and a steep rise in unemployment, for example early eighties UK. It demonstrates how incompatible the Brexit aims of prosperity and immigration control are.0 -
Of course domestic producers benefit - you've reduced their competition!Patrick said:
They can. The ones who don't then clean up the market share. Market equilibrium returns. A higher price generally only results from a higher supply cost generally. If only some of the supply options get higher cost it moves the share around between suppliers.rkrkrk said:
...means domestic/non EU companies can raise their prices.Patrick said:
Non-zero price risk if you are still stubbornly determined to buy an EU sourced product!rkrkrk said:
Okay - good to see you backing down from zero price risk.Patrick said:
Possibly.rkrkrk said:
If tariffs on washing machine imports are introduced...Patrick said:
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.
A £300 washing machine might attract a WTO tariff of a few %. So nominally now costing around £315. But the supplier may not wish to lose share. They will inevitably absorb some of the £15 from their profit margin. Sorry Miele. Let's say that leaves Mr UK Consumer being asked for £307 by Miele. The rather nice looking Samsung in the next aisle is being deliberately aggressively priced at £275 to win share. The consumer is getting a better choice of offers now.
The big hairy point in the corner is that this is not earth shattering stuff. All producers and consumers will settle into a new free market equilibrium. Some new products will get a look in for the first time. We'll still traipse round Currys on a Sunday buying washing machines at essentially the same price as today. And we'll make a few more too. It's not the apocalypse some remainers paint.
You're right that small price increases from tariffs won't be a huge deal.
But it will be a net negative not positive for consumers.
Non tariff barriers will be more problematic but a deal can be found.
Zero price risk if you shop around. Probably some very good and aggressive deals being offered as the UK becomes a price war zone.
Overall positive for consumers.
Not a positive for consumers whose demand is for 'that Miele' rather than 'a really nice washing machine at a good price'.
The phenomenon you describe would co-exist with price gouging by other suppliers.
You also omitted the Google bit saying 'more domestic companies are willing to produce the good'. That's not a tiny detail either.0 -
It's utterly disgraceful. I have two friends who married in England over 50 years ago. She kept German citizenship. At the time, I don't think you could have both.williamglenn said:More evidence of the disarray in our government.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/13/european-couple-stunned-as-uk-born-children-denied-residency
She's never applied for formal residency. It wasn't needed in the 1960s and she wrongly assumed marriage was enough. She now fears that she could be deported, especially if she outlives her husband.
How many million UK residents aren't actually 'residents'?0 -
World Economic Forum: Brexit will weaken Britain and strengthen the EU.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/04/brexit-european-union-negotiations/0 -
Of course, the reason that the federalists never tried to sell the Project is that they knew that would lead to heavy defeat.NickPalmer said:Inspiring stuff for us Europhiles (from a Euro-conservative):
https://www.facebook.com/EPPGroup/videos/10154532798547689/
I wish the Remain side had felt able to have a bit more of that sort of thing, and a bit less of the "Brexit will cost you N zillion quid". Sometimes I think we collectively are like the Bourbons, knoing the price of everything and the value of nothing.0 -
I'm not sure about that, being born here hasn't conferred automatic rights since the 80s.GeoffM said:
A Guardian link?williamglenn said:More evidence of the disarray in our government.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/13/european-couple-stunned-as-uk-born-children-denied-residency
{Fake News Shield mode=up}
I bet there's more to it than that URL suggests!0 -
I note Melenchon's now in to 11.5/12 on Betfair. Seriously tempting me to take some profit...0
-
0
-
Condensing dryers usually only fill the tank if they are not plumbed in. I would expect a washer /dryer to send the water straight down the drain...Scott_P said:
Is it a "condensing" dryer, and have you emptied the tank...?SeanT said:Serious question. I spent a lot of money on a (German) combo washer/dryer for my glam new kitchen, in the fond hope it meant I could dump my tumble dryer (which uglifies my bedroom). The damn combo dryer is utterly shite. Couldn't dry a slightly damp napkin in six hours.
Is this coz of the EU?! Or some weird law?0 -
It led to a heavy defeat for the Eurosceptics in 1975. The same would happen again if we had less feeble pro-European politicians.ThreeQuidder said:
Of course, the reason that the federalists never tried to sell the Project is that they knew that would lead to heavy defeat.NickPalmer said:Inspiring stuff for us Europhiles (from a Euro-conservative):
https://www.facebook.com/EPPGroup/videos/10154532798547689/
I wish the Remain side had felt able to have a bit more of that sort of thing, and a bit less of the "Brexit will cost you N zillion quid". Sometimes I think we collectively are like the Bourbons, knoing the price of everything and the value of nothing.0 -
Why do you want mothers who have conceived as a result of rape to be denied child benefit?calum said:Kez upping the pressure on Ruth
https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/8525013893811609600 -
Dortmund are unhappy that the match was rearranged for the following day. I must say it seemed a bit quick for players who had just survived a terrorist attack to refocus on footballAndyJS said:"Borussia Dortmund bus attack suspect 'was Islamic State fighter'
The 26-year-old is believed to have led a commando unit involved in killings, kidnappings, smuggling and extortion in Iraq."
http://news.sky.com/story/borussia-dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-was-islamic-state-fighter-10835233
https://twitter.com/sporf/status/8522637630467973130 -
Actually, they need to be worrying more about thisrural_voter said:
It's utterly disgraceful. I have two friends who married in England over 50 years ago. She kept German citizenship. At the time, I don't think you could have both.williamglenn said:More evidence of the disarray in our government.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/13/european-couple-stunned-as-uk-born-children-denied-residency
She's never applied for formal residency. It wasn't needed in the 1960s and she wrongly assumed marriage was enough. She now fears that she could be deported, especially if she outlives her husband.
How many million UK residents aren't actually 'residents'?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/12/uk-retirees-less-willing-to-move-abroad-after-brexit-vote-poll-finds
I would be surprised if Reciprocal Healthcare arrangements survived Brexit and these are the sort of people who use up lots of NHS resource, meanwhile the EU workers in the NHS are leaving at twice the pre-Brexit rate.0 -
Nobody likes to be told the baby's ugly, but this is one ugly baby...SeanT said:
From the same people who predicted a recession after a Leave vote.williamglenn said:World Economic Forum: Brexit will weaken Britain and strengthen the EU.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/04/brexit-european-union-negotiations/0 -
True in terms of degree, but not of effect. The route to success that Ireland took in the nineties isn't open to us, when it caught the first wave of globalisation and got US companies to set up European operations there. In thirty or fifty years time something equivalent may come up for us that we can't predict at the outset. It's an uncertain prospectus for a new country however and things will be pretty austere in the meantime.malcolmg said:
Ireland was way way behind where Scotland are when it went on its own, hardly comparable.FF43 said:
As a Scot, I see the similarities more between Ireland and Scotland. First of all, that Ireland was an economic basketcase for the first fifty years of its existence. Even if we would (almost certainly) avoid some really bad mistakes the Irish made, I am not keen, for example, on copying the Irish welfare policy: we will stop you dying in the street, but if you can work and don't have a job you emigrate. I also find Ireland to be a culturally insular place, which I don't really want Scotland to copy, even though they have had deserved success in recent yearsfoxinsoxuk said:
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.FF43 said:
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.0 -
I think this is an accurate forecast. It is why I am making changes now before the excrement hits the fan.williamglenn said:World Economic Forum: Brexit will weaken Britain and strengthen the EU.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/04/brexit-european-union-negotiations/
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Huzzah for Brexit!rkrkrk said:
Of course domestic producers benefit - you've reduced their competition!Patrick said:
They can. The ones who don't then clean up the market share. Market equilibrium returns. A higher price generally only results from a higher supply cost generally. If only some of the supply options get higher cost it moves the share around between suppliers.rkrkrk said:
...means domestic/non EU companies can raise their prices.Patrick said:
Non-zero price risk if you are still stubbornly determined to buy an EU sourced product!rkrkrk said:
Okay - good to see you backing down from zero price risk.Patrick said:
Possibly.rkrkrk said:
If tariffs on washing machine imports are introduced...Patrick said:
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.
A £300 washing machine might attract a WTO tariff of a few %. So nominally now costing around £315. But the supplier may not wish to lose share. They will inevitably absorb some of the £15 from their profit margin. Sorry Miele. Let's say that leaves Mr UK Consumer being asked for £307 by Miele. The rather nice looking Samsung in the next aisle is being deliberately aggressively priced at £275 to win share. The consumer is getting a better choice of offers now.
The big hairy point in the corner is that this is not earth shattering stuff. All producers and consumers will settle into a new free market equilibrium. Some new products will get a look in for the first time. We'll still traipse round Currys on a Sunday buying washing machines at essentially the same price as today. And we'll make a few more too. It's not the apocalypse some remainers paint.
You're right that small price increases from tariffs won't be a huge deal.
But it will be a net negative not positive for consumers.
Non tariff barriers will be more problematic but a deal can be found.
Zero price risk if you shop around. Probably some very good and aggressive deals being offered as the UK becomes a price war zone.
Overall positive for consumers.
Not a positive for consumers whose demand is for 'that Miele' rather than 'a really nice washing machine at a good price'.
The phenomenon you describe would co-exist with price gouging by other suppliers.
You also omitted the Google bit saying 'more domestic companies are willing to produce the good'. That's not a tiny detail either.
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Thanks... That's good enough for me to take a bit of profit.ThreeQuidder said:I note Melenchon's now in to 11.5/12 on Betfair. Seriously tempting me to take some profit...
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That's ever so slightly disingenuous. The point is, why should you have to prove you were raped before your child can get welfare?ThreeQuidder said:
Why do you want mothers who have conceived as a result of rape to be denied child benefit?calum said:Kez upping the pressure on Ruth
https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/8525013893811609600 -
...and he can't spell...SeanT said:
Here's a tweet from the main guy at the office that wrote that reportwilliamglenn said:World Economic Forum: Brexit will weaken Britain and strengthen the EU.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/04/brexit-european-union-negotiations/
@davidealgebris Mar 25
More
For all our Grandparents who gave their life to build a Peacefull and open Europe, European United we stand
Happy Birthday Europe
#EU60
They're just mad Federalists, like you. Europe is their Catholic faith, Brexit is Reformation and Protestantism. Conceptually, it cannot succeed. It is heretical.0 -
>
No no no they have it all wrong, the bbc told me it was a right wing extremist false flag attack...AndyJS said:"Borussia Dortmund bus attack suspect 'was Islamic State fighter'
The 26-year-old is believed to have led a commando unit involved in killings, kidnappings, smuggling and extortion in Iraq."
http://news.sky.com/story/borussia-dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-was-islamic-state-fighter-10835233
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Because the new welfare system allows benefits for two children and no more. So if any more are born, unless it can be proved it was due to circumstances outside the mother's control, they do not get benefits.FF43 said:
That's ever so slightly disingenuous. The point is, why should you have to prove you were raped before your child can get welfare?ThreeQuidder said:
Why do you want mothers who have conceived as a result of rape to be denied child benefit?calum said:Kez upping the pressure on Ruth
https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/852501389381160960
Incidentally without wishing to sound all Malthusian wouldn't three be a more logical number than two? It would allow for the replacement rate being more than 2.0 -
It's hardly the most objective report.SeanT said:
Here's a tweet from the main guy at the office that wrote that reportwilliamglenn said:World Economic Forum: Brexit will weaken Britain and strengthen the EU.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/04/brexit-european-union-negotiations/
@davidealgebris Mar 25
More
For all our Grandparents who gave their life to build a Peacefull and open Europe, European United we stand
Happy Birthday Europe
#EU60
They're just mad Federalists, like you. Europe is their Catholic faith, Brexit is Reformation and Protestantism. Conceptually, it cannot succeed. It is heretical.
I was especially intrigued by the assertion that France is rejecting populist politics.
Currently, GDP per capita is about $40,000 per annum in the UK. The economic argument about Brexit turns on whether it will be $46,000 or $48,000 in 2030.0 -
Yes, I suggested that yesterday and took my own advice for half the profits. I like the *idea* of a left-wing candidate surging up on the rails in the final furlong. But I don't actually think Melanchon's programme makes sense, and I doubt if more trhan 20% of voters will vote for it on the first ballot.ThreeQuidder said:I note Melenchon's now in to 11.5/12 on Betfair. Seriously tempting me to take some profit...
But the fact that he's eclipsed the mainstream (also quite left-wing) socialist Harmon illustrates again the problems that moderate social democracy is having all over Europe. Potential supporters want red meat, or they want Blair-style charisma. Quiet competence and carefully-considered detailed programmes, meh. A potential problem on the right too.0 -
Elabe poll, just out. Changes from last Elabe poll 2-3 days ago.
Macron 23.5 (up 0.5)
Le Pen 22.5(down 0.5)
Fillon 20 (up 1)
Melenchon 18.5 (up 1.5)
http://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/13042017_les_echos_radio_classique_intentions-de-vote-presidentielles.pdf0 -
It’s the ‘having to prove it was rape’ that’s the problem.ThreeQuidder said:
Why do you want mothers who have conceived as a result of rape to be denied child benefit?calum said:Kez upping the pressure on Ruth
https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/8525013893811609600 -
They don't have to prove it was rape.OldKingCole said:
It’s the ‘having to prove it was rape’ that’s the problem.ThreeQuidder said:
Why do you want mothers who have conceived as a result of rape to be denied child benefit?calum said:Kez upping the pressure on Ruth
https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/8525013893811609600 -
BTW, in our electronic age, wouldn't it be good if the betting sites used cookies to steer us to the pages where we've shown interest or placed bets? Whenever I look in on Betfair, where I only place political bets, it takes me to footie and asks me what I'll bet on Wigan vs Barnsley.0
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I find this too. I've never bet on 95%+ of the things betfair offers yet their website remains stubbornly uncustomsed and often hard to find the market i want.NickPalmer said:BTW, in our electronic age, wouldn't it be good if the betting sites used cookies to steer us to the pages where we've shown interest or placed bets? Whenever I look in on Betfair, where I only place political bets, it tgakes me to footie and asks me what I'll bet on Wigsan vs Barnsley.
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SeanT said:
Here's a tweet from the main guy at the office that wrote that reportwilliamglenn said:World Economic Forum: Brexit will weaken Britain and strengthen the EU.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/04/brexit-european-union-negotiations/
@davidealgebris Mar 25
More
For all our Grandparents who gave their life to build a Peacefull and open Europe, European United we stand
Happy Birthday Europe
#EU60
They're just mad Federalists, like you. Europe is their Catholic faith, Brexit is Reformation and Protestantism. Conceptually, it cannot succeed. It is heretical.
Ive just read that "report"
I seriously hope no-one was charged for it, it totally lacked balance, objectivity and tangible data let alone data analysis.
The trouble is some people will base important financial decisions on this guff in the genuine believe that it has intellectual merit.0 -
No it isn't. The "rape clause" is that mothers who have conceived as a result of rape are exempt from the two child limit.FF43 said:
That's ever so slightly disingenuous.ThreeQuidder said:
Why do you want mothers who have conceived as a result of rape to be denied child benefit?calum said:Kez upping the pressure on Ruth
https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/8525013893811609600 -
Betfair's mobile site is shockingly unusable, almost impossible to get off their sportsbook and review your position on the exchange.NickPalmer said:BTW, in our electronic age, wouldn't it be good if the betting sites used cookies to steer us to the pages where we've shown interest or placed bets? Whenever I look in on Betfair, where I only place political bets, it takes me to footie and asks me what I'll bet on Wigan vs Barnsley.
I assume most mobile bettors will want to look at the political exchange rather than take a football accumulator ? 0 -
Source?FrancisUrquhart said:>
No no no they have it all wrong, the bbc told me it was a right wing extremist false flag attack...AndyJS said:"Borussia Dortmund bus attack suspect 'was Islamic State fighter'
The 26-year-old is believed to have led a commando unit involved in killings, kidnappings, smuggling and extortion in Iraq."
http://news.sky.com/story/borussia-dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-was-islamic-state-fighter-108352330 -
Totally off topic but I’ve just an email from our local Neighbourhood Watch with an attachment from the Police, warning me to be aware of the danger of fake clairvoyants.
Does anyone know a real one?0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Mr. G, cheers for that polling.
King Cole, fake clairvoyants always see a mug coming.0 -
German SPD official: UK should have a second referendum on Brexit
http://www.politico.eu/article/german-spd-boss-let-uk-have-a-second-brexit-referendum/
“The intention of the May government is to say ‘either we get a very good deal, or it’s the fault of the European Union because they want to punish us,’” Barley said, “Which, first of all, isn’t true. The EU and the member states were always completely clear about what a Brexit would mean. The only ones who weren’t clear about it were [May’s] Tories.”0 -
I see we've drawn the match in diplomacyMorris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Mr. G, cheers for that polling.
King Cole, fake clairvoyants always see a mug coming.
Quite pleased with that, seeing as I never got beyond the balkans !0 -
Certainly not this one: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-37375709OldKingCole said:Totally off topic but I’ve just an email from our local Neighbourhood Watch with an attachment from the Police, warning me to be aware of the danger of fake clairvoyants.
Does anyone know a real one?0 -
'Support for a child conceived without your consent, including rape or while you were in a controlling of coercive relationship form'Philip_Thompson said:
They don't have to prove it was rape.OldKingCole said:
It’s the ‘having to prove it was rape’ that’s the problem.ThreeQuidder said:
Why do you want mothers who have conceived as a result of rape to be denied child benefit?calum said:Kez upping the pressure on Ruth
https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/852501389381160960
http://tinyurl.com/k9496fg
You'd better let the DWP know they've buggered up their form.0 -
Like!!!Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Mr. G, cheers for that polling.
King Cole, fake clairvoyants always see a mug coming.0 -
You're welcome Mr D.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Mr. G, cheers for that polling.
That is the lowest Le Pen has polled since goodness knows when. She has been steadily slipping over the past 2-3 weeks. There has to be a real chance that either Fillon or Melenchon get the extra few per cent needed to kick her out first round.
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