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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BREAKING: Trump orders cruise missile attack on Syria followin

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600

    Also Putin, Aaron Banks & Katie Hopkins......and the SNP......
    Plus Rand Paul
    https://mobile.twitter.com/undefined/status/850299422575648768
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,160
    HYUFD said:
    "11:48 AM · Apr 7, 2017 from Sha Tin District, Hong Kong"

    He gets about a bit does old Paul.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600

    "11:48 AM · Apr 7, 2017 from Sha Tin District, Hong Kong"

    He gets about a bit does old Paul.
    Certainly more than your average class warrior
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    calum said:

    FWIW I think she is going a storm in the US and I'm sure it will add jobs.
    Carlotta is praying for more disasters and job losses in Scotland , she cannot hide her delight at any woe that befalls Scotland and immediately blames it on the SNP. A very unedyfying sight for someone who CLAIMS to be Scottish.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    HYUFD said:

    Plus Rand Paul
    https://mobile.twitter.com/undefined/status/850299422575648768
    Rand Paul isn't quite on the same page - he isn't saying don't, but he does want congressional approval.
    Takes the element of surprise out, mind.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    Sensible he is now aiming for a broader coalition in 2020
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,607
    Sean_F said:

    Once civil war becomes endemic, moderates are forced to choose sides with extremists, who they'd really prefer not to be in charge.
    I think what is deemed "moderate" within the Middle East is not at all what we in the West would consider moderate.

    Do credal societies inevitably lead to extremism?

    And if they don't, what factors have to be present?

    Discuss.

    Answers on both sides of the paper, please.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    I think having a political party that is against air strikes is a healthy thing.

    No one can say that the issue is cut and dried and even those who disagree with that view and support military action in this case, such as moi, understand that it is only a less bad option rather than a good one, given where we are with Syria.

    Of course sadly Jezza demeans the viewpoint but I don't mind the Labour Party holding it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Trump is drawing himself back into the US's traditional stances on both NATO and the EU. Swivel-eyed Atlanticists will not be pleased.

    I rather suspect most Atlanticists like the US traditionally which is why they're Atlanticists, so why would they not be pleased?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    malcolmg said:

    Carlotta is praying for more disasters and job losses in Scotland , she cannot hide her delight at any woe that befalls Scotland and immediately blames it on the SNP. A very unedyfying sight for someone who CLAIMS to be Scottish.
    The fact that you can't separate 'the SNP' from 'Scotland' is your problem, not mine.

    Had a quick glance to see what coverage Sturgeon got in today's NYT - this was one story:

    ABERDEEN, Scotland — A promise in a bond issued by Aberdeen city stipulating that investors can demand their money back early if the country leaves Britain is the starkest sign yet of investor nervousness over the prospect of Scottish secession.

    In what lawyers said was a debt market first, the 370-million-pound bond issued late last year includes an "independence event" clause allowing early repayment if Scotland secedes before the end of the 37-year life of the debt.


    https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/04/07/business/07reuters-britain-scotland-aberdeen.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,252
    Scott_P said:
    The SNP position on, for example, the currency in an independent Scotland is no substitute for a policy either, Alex - but it hasn't stopped you....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,252
    HYUFD said:

    If anything May played a crucial role in bringing Trump back into the fold and away from the alt right
    HYUFD said:

    If anything May played a crucial role in bringing Trump back into the fold and away from the alt right
    It's called a restraining hand:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/38777762
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009

    In other news, it looks like Boris's Garden Bridge is going to be scrapped. This is not a good look for him:
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/850283814748344321

    It was a sham anyway , handpicked chums at any cost to the public purse, idealogically driven where normal people would be jailed for less.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    Pulpstar said:

    Rand Paul isn't quite on the same page - he isn't saying don't, but he does want congressional approval.
    Takes the element of surprise out, mind.
    It was Congressianal opposition which stopped it last time
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited April 2017
    Some very good and measured comments on here this morning about the Middle East in general. It's a big mess in many countries, the window of opportunity to sort Syria out was in 2013 and should have been taken (no thanks to Ed Miliband). Where we are now has no happy endings, but the US have rightly emphasised the point that the international community won't tolerate use of chemical weapons in any conflict.

    A useful secondary point has been made to North Korea, that the US under Trump aren't afraid to send some strategic ordinance in order to give a nudge where required. China's reaction is probably the key to sorting out NK - but right now they've got more important things on the mind, like how to clear the Shanghai smog and avoid looking like idiots in front of the world's television cameras.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    Yorkcity said:
    Measured factual response rather than the puerile bilge from the Tory US lapdogs. They have no plan , no clue other than to fund one set of the murderers and bomb the other one every now and again to show how tough they are from thousands of miles away.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    malcolmg said:

    It was a sham anyway , handpicked chums at any cost to the public purse, idealogically driven where normal people would be jailed for less.
    Seemed like a neat idea, but not if the public are footing an expensive bill.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    HYUFD said:

    If anything May played a crucial role in bringing Trump back into the fold and away from the alt right
    you really live in fantasy land
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    malcolmg said:

    Measured factual response rather than the puerile bilge from the Tory US lapdogs. They have no plan , no clue other than to fund one set of the murderers and bomb the other one every now and again to show how tough they are from thousands of miles away.
    You might try matching their measured response.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    Blue_rog said:

    I see the number of civilians killed by the US airstrike continues to rise - as reported by the Syrian authorities. Wonder how long it will be before there's more been 'killed' in this than by the Sarin attack!

    They have a head start , they managed to kill hundreds of civilians last week wit htheir precision strikes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    malcolmg said:

    you really live in fantasy land
    Nope it was her persuading him to move away from Putin and Farage and back a strong NATO and EU that was crucial
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    TOPPING said:

    I think having a political party that is against air strikes is a healthy thing.

    No one can say that the issue is cut and dried and even those who disagree with that view and support military action in this case, such as moi, understand that it is only a less bad option rather than a good one, given where we are with Syria.

    Of course sadly Jezza demeans the viewpoint but I don't mind the Labour Party holding it.

    I would assume all UK mainstream political parties are against air strikes.

    The difference is who would sanction the use of them and for what reason.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    philiph said:

    I would assume all UK mainstream political parties are against air strikes.

    The difference is who would sanction the use of them and for what reason.
    No I get that. I should have said "...in this instance..."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    Have we had the Daily FrenchGov yet ?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Should evidence emerge that an Assad attack on a rebel area resulted in a rebel chemical weapons store being hit and chemicals released, then Labour's position will be seen to be justified.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,242
    edited April 2017
    Patrick said:

    Christianity, from the time of Jesus himself, managed to accept the creed of 'render undo Caesar that which is Caesar's'. In other words to accept that there is something beyond religion. That secular rulers have a role to play. That law matters.
    Islam's greatest failing is to subsume, and in fact overwhelm, the concept of anything beyond Islam / Sharia having validity. There is no escape valve. No ability to reform. It's not a confident religion.
    The second major failing is not to have a Pope. Christianity struggled with big issues but when a doctrinal issue needed settling (or a political one) there was an authority. Islam has no authority. Civil wars and issues just fester as the proponents of both sides have no higher power to knock heads.
    So credal societies can avoid extremism - they just need to have escape valves and compassion for others and a boss.

    I am really not sure I would use Christianity as an example of how to avoid civil war and extremism. We have been just as proficient at killing our own as the Muslims have and have had just as many if not more sects fighting against each other throughout our history.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    Should evidence emerge that an Assad attack on a rebel area resulted in a rebel chemical weapons store being hit and chemicals released, then Labour's position will be seen to be justified.

    That Russian story has been effectively debunked....one of the precursors of Sarin is highly flammable - so it would have gone up in smoke, rather than mixing itself in precise quantities to form a poison gas.....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,139

    I am really not sure I would use Christianity as an example of how to avoid civil war and extremism. We have been just as proficient at killing our own as the Muslims have and have had just as many if not more sects fighting against each other throughout our history.
    And since the Pope/Papacy was at the heart of almost all those wars, it's an 'interesting' proposition that they were a moderating, authoritative influence.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Of all the articles on the Syria action this is the one says it all I guess:

    " Russia will reinforce Syrian air defences and is sending a missile carrying warship to the eastern Mediterranean in response to a US cruise missile strikes on a Syrian government airbase."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/07/russia-halts-air-safety-deal-us-syria-warns-considerable-damage/
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    kle4 said:

    You might try matching their measured response.
    Am I not being bloodthirsty enough for you or is it not waving the butcher's apron. Keep up your pathetic armchair general support for murdering civilians.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009

    That Russian story has been effectively debunked....one of the precursors of Sarin is highly flammable - so it would have gone up in smoke, rather than mixing itself in precise quantities to form a poison gas.....
    Ha Ha, Lady Haw Haw is a chemical weapons expert now as well.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    That Russian story has been effectively debunked....one of the precursors of Sarin is highly flammable - so it would have gone up in smoke, rather than mixing itself in precise quantities to form a poison gas.....
    Long Twitter thread on why Russian 'bombed rebel chemical weapons factory' is junk:

    https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/850288010625245184
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    calum said:

    Of all the articles on the Syria action this is the one says it all I guess:

    " Russia will reinforce Syrian air defences and is sending a missile carrying warship to the eastern Mediterranean in response to a US cruise missile strikes on a Syrian government airbase."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/07/russia-halts-air-safety-deal-us-syria-warns-considerable-damage/

    https://twitter.com/YorukIsik/status/850234184752799745

    Sailing down the Bosphorous as we speak.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,552
    edited April 2017
    Scott_P said:
    The irony is that, taking the literal meaning of that statement, the only word in the whole thing I would outright disagree with is "instead".

    What puts me in favour of the action is that the potential reward - a decent chance of ending Assad's use of chemical weapons, just one of many horrors of that war, but one we can very reasonably think it worthwhile stamping out in isolation - balances well against the risks, as highlighted by Corbyn, of the specific action taken. He even almost puts a toe in the water of judging the rewards of intervention later in his statement, but not quite.

    Russia will, of course, harrumph, but even they, in private, may consider they have been done a favour here, while worrying about what it means elsewhere.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    malcolmg said:

    Ha Ha, Lady Haw Haw is a chemical weapons expert now as well.
    See following post quoting a CBN expert.....we know you are only expert in sneering.....
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Reminds me of the Reagan attack on Libya in 1986 and the Clinton cruise missile attack on Afghanistan 1998 .No long term plan.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    malcolmg said:

    Ha Ha, Lady Haw Haw is a chemical weapons expert now as well.
    Reading that twitter thread, she seems to be right.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    Yorkcity said:

    Reminds me of the Reagan attack on Libya in 1986 and the Clinton cruise missile attack on Afghanistan 1998 .No long term plan.

    No, but there has to be some response for a chemical weapons attack on civilians.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129

    Iran was not the driving force behind the revolt against Assad, Saudi Arabia was. This is as much a religious war between the Wahhabi Saudi's and the Alawite Syrian regime as it is anything else. Saudi has far more to answer for in this war than Iran.

    You've used that line before, but it's far from convincing. The real cause of the civil war was Assad's government and the things it was doing to its own people. He reached a stage where even some of his 'own' people could not stand it. Saudi might have taken advantage of the upheaval (or not), but the cause is Assad.

    I find it hard to see how you're missing the point about Iran: they're an active participant in this conflict: Saudi is not. According to some reports, Iran has lost over 1,000 military personnel in fighting in Syria, including some senior figures such as brigadier-generals and major generals. It is the backstop for the now much-depleted Syrian army.

    For this reason, Iran is the important figure. Yes, Saudi needs slapping down a little, but Iran's the country with troops on the ground. They're the country that's lost men, equipment and money to preserve Assad. They're much more important than Russia in preserving Assad in place.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    RobD said:

    Reading that twitter thread, she seems to be right.
    Twitter is the bible for chemical weapons experts now , that makes me feel better.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    Yorkcity said:

    Reminds me of the Reagan attack on Libya in 1986 and the Clinton cruise missile attack on Afghanistan 1998 .No long term plan.

    The plan was to send a message not topple Assad
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    malcolmg said:

    Twitter is the bible for chemical weapons experts now , that makes me feel better.
    No, but it does contain some expert analysis on topics such as these.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129
    malcolmg said:

    It was a sham anyway , handpicked chums at any cost to the public purse, idealogically driven where normal people would be jailed for less.
    This is another of those occasions when we are in agreement, Malc.

    But we must think of all those poor children in the local area who won't be able to take advantage of the bridge, which one of PB's establishment figures assured us was a reason for it to go ahead.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/YorukIsik/status/850234184752799745

    Sailing down the Bosphorous as we speak.
    The Kalibr is a surface to surface cruise missile and therefore useless in an air defence role, unless Russia wants to sink US ships.
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233

    They hate Easter.

    Surely even Christians regard it as a regrettable incident?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    RobD said:

    No, but it does contain some expert analysis on topics such as these.
    Malcolm tries to be a "useful idiot" - but only half succeeds....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009

    This is another of those occasions when we are in agreement, Malc.

    But we must think of all those poor children in the local area who won't be able to take advantage of the bridge, which one of PB's establishment figures assured us was a reason for it to go ahead.
    Yes JJ, lots could be said about it but another shocking example of how these people squander our money on their vanity projects. Is it any wonder they are rich beyond belief themselves, but always have a crocodile tear for the poor.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129

    I didn't hear that one but a recent BBC TV programme on Turkey featured praise for Erdogan's generosity to the refugees fleeing Syria. The more cynical analysis went as follows ... he may hope that they never go home but become Turkish citizens and bolster his majority in future elections.

    It made me think ... if Erdogan wants to become the strong man of a semi-Islamic republic and is planning to become both 'president' and 'prime minister', with a token 'parliament' giving him a permanent majority of 100, does NATO allow dictatorships? The EU doesn't.

    For your first paragraph: that may be part of his thinking now; it certainly wasn't five years ago when the refugee crisis started. Turkey took a principled humanitarian stand and has let a few less than three million refugees in.

    Think about that for a minute: three million refugees in five years. It has caused large social problems in some parts of the country, and the way the rest of the world has turned their backs on the crisis (and this applies especially to Lebanon and Jordan as well) is despicable.

    Erdogan can be criticised for a great many things, but on the whole his country's reaction to the refugee crisis next door is not one. But over the last year or two Turkey's ability to cope with the numbers - especially as the crisis seems nowhere near ending - is reducing. It's already cost them billions of dollars they can ill afford. And that's the direct costs.

    Cameron was right: we should be helping refugees in the surrounding countries. But unfortunately some on here see that as 'bribing' countries ...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009

    The Kalibr is a surface to surface cruise missile and therefore useless in an air defence role, unless Russia wants to sink US ships.
    Hurst may be an airbase/platform out there somewhere they want to have insurance against.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,615

    He was very positive about the EU in a recent interview:

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/trump-hails-eu-for-getting-their-act-together-in-face-of-brexit/

    Yes but it's entirely possible that in two days time he will blame the military/intelligence services for misleading him on the strike or leaking the details to Russia or something....
  • NEW THREAD

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Surely even Christians regard it as a regrettable incident?
    :wink:
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/YorukIsik/status/850234184752799745

    Sailing down the Bosphorous as we speak.
    Part of any deal will be preserving Russia's Tartus base -that's what drives them to defend the regime .
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,093

    The fact that you can't separate 'the SNP' from 'Scotland' is your problem, not mine.

    Had a quick glance to see what coverage Sturgeon got in today's NYT - this was one story:

    ABERDEEN, Scotland — A promise in a bond issued by Aberdeen city stipulating that investors can demand their money back early if the country leaves Britain is the starkest sign yet of investor nervousness over the prospect of Scottish secession.

    In what lawyers said was a debt market first, the 370-million-pound bond issued late last year includes an "independence event" clause allowing early repayment if Scotland secedes before the end of the 37-year life of the debt.


    https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/04/07/business/07reuters-britain-scotland-aberdeen.html
    That would be the Aberdeen Council run by a Labour /Tory/ small-i independents coalition?

    They have a track record in nakedly partisan anti-independence actions -

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-31364188
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