politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It wasn’t an April Fool after all: Farage is PaddyPower’s new
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I did it a GCSE in it at 6th Form College! It was a proper muckabout, I made an unfinished video about Syd Barrett and Jimi Hendrix for no particular reason and that's about it... think I got a Dkle4 said:
Frankly I feel sorry for anyone who really did want to and then did media studies, given its status as the archetypal 'useless' degree.The_Apocalypse said:
Also, when I was doing A-Levels, I never met anyone who was going to university to do 'media studies.' This is yet another negative stereotype about young people, sadly.0 -
Well it hasn't held you back.isam said:
I did it a GCSE in it at 6th Form College! It was a proper muckabout, I made an unfinished video about Syd Barrett and Jimi Hendrix for no particular reason and that's about it... think I got a Dkle4 said:
Frankly I feel sorry for anyone who really did want to and then did media studies, given its status as the archetypal 'useless' degree.The_Apocalypse said:
Also, when I was doing A-Levels, I never met anyone who was going to university to do 'media studies.' This is yet another negative stereotype about young people, sadly.0 -
Well I didn't do the poll, but don't you think it is incredible that a party with seemingly no purpose, who's only real asset has quit is polling almost half of one of the big 2? UKIP shouldn't be getting 20% of the Labour vote. Maybe the poll is wrongYorkcity said:
Ok Private Frazier if you say so.isam said:Amazing... if ICM are correct, for every 21 Labour voters you see in England you will see 10 Kippers, despite UKIPs goal having been achieved
Labour is doomed!0 -
I think Faisal Islam enjoys his role.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The reassuring point is that despite Sky and BBC constant anti Brexit themes the public are seeing through them. The media needs to understand remain lost and to move on in providing balanced reporting. You only need to watch the smug face of Faisal Islam when he is reporting anything negative by leave and then you see it in others, specially on SkyCasino_Royale said:
Yes. Theresa May is playing to a different audience to those who report and comment on what she does.Big_G_NorthWales said:Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved
Possibly he sees himself as the counterweight to Andrew Neil.0 -
It's about 4 months net contributions - so, yes, not very much in context.asjohnstone said:Normal people hear 3bn and think it's a vast sum on money, they don't realize it's basically chump change.
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Nothing wishful about it: that's what I think has happened.JosiasJessop said:
A bit of wishful thinking there perhaps. It might just as easily be because of the lack of appeal of Labour, and the fact May's done a competent job so far.Casino_Royale said:
The centre has moved and is now in a different place to where the "centrists" think it is, or should be.El_Capitano said:
I find this fascinating. Theresa May's Conservative party is playing more stridently right-wing mood music than David Cameron's ever did. Yet the 2015 voters are sticking with her and don't appear to mind that the right wing is in the ascendancy. Though Corbyn is never going to appeal to disaffected centrist Tories, the Lib Dems potentially could - but it's not happening, for now at any rate.Black_Rook said:The tables are now out for the Guardian/ICM poll. They've broken down the movement of 2015 voters by Leave/Remain (usual caveats about small sub-samples apply):
* Tory 2015 vote very stable: 90%+ staying with party
Either Ed Miliband really did mop up the entirety of the centrist vote in 2015 (very unlikely); or elections actually aren't won in the centre any more; or the Lib Dems are still toxic; or there are curious undercurrents which we don't yet appreciate.
This is because the centre ground of public opinion did favour an element of social liberalism and reform in the 1990s, following some slightly hypocritical and stuffy Tory years, but as those same Centrist parties failed to respond to the challenges of mass immigration, economic turbulence, a lopsided devolution settlement and continued EU political integration it has moved.
There's carrot and stick for the centrists: a carrot towards the Conservatives of reasonably competent governance, and the stick of Corbyn's Labour. The Lib Dem's are finding it hard to get heard (although it seems that is starting to change), and repel many leave-leaning centrists.
We'll see in a few years if the centre ground has shifted or not.0 -
That could have repercussions for our migration numbers.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/848943146541232129
Good news from the Eurozone (it does happen,) but look at the differences between the states. Unemployment falling in Germany and Spain, but broadly unchanged in France and Italy.0 -
A childish version, perhaps? I don't think I'll forget when he constantly called Gove "Lord High Chancellor" throughout the debate.Casino_Royale said:
I think Faisal Islam enjoys his role.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The reassuring point is that despite Sky and BBC constant anti Brexit themes the public are seeing through them. The media needs to understand remain lost and to move on in providing balanced reporting. You only need to watch the smug face of Faisal Islam when he is reporting anything negative by leave and then you see it in others, specially on SkyCasino_Royale said:
Yes. Theresa May is playing to a different audience to those who report and comment on what she does.Big_G_NorthWales said:Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved
Possibly he sees himself as the counterweight to Andrew Neil.0 -
But most people who choose to resign from a club, giving two years' notice as required, don't expect to get a bill for stuff the club does after they've left.Ishmael_Z said:
It's about 4 months net contributions - so, yes, not very much in context.asjohnstone said:Normal people hear 3bn and think it's a vast sum on money, they don't realize it's basically chump change.
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There's no doubt in my mind who is the more formidable interviewer.RobD said:
A childish version, perhaps? I don't think I'll forget when he constantly called Gove "Lord High Chancellor" throughout the debate.Casino_Royale said:
I think Faisal Islam enjoys his role.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The reassuring point is that despite Sky and BBC constant anti Brexit themes the public are seeing through them. The media needs to understand remain lost and to move on in providing balanced reporting. You only need to watch the smug face of Faisal Islam when he is reporting anything negative by leave and then you see it in others, specially on SkyCasino_Royale said:
Yes. Theresa May is playing to a different audience to those who report and comment on what she does.Big_G_NorthWales said:Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved
Possibly he sees himself as the counterweight to Andrew Neil.0 -
Mr. D, a 0.1% spike in inflation was fun. (I never saw the Gove interview, but recall that point being made here at the time).0
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Whatever happened to Blue Labour? When that stopped in its tracks I went to UKIP, could they bring it back?0
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It's a tiny amount of money if the point of reference is the amount of money the UK government spends, as indeed is the €60bn over X years that is usually mentioned in relation to the EU.asjohnstone said:Normal people hear 3bn and think it's a vast sum on money, they don't realize it's basically chump change.
In the context of old folk struggling to find carers, people having their salaries and benefits frozen to 'live within our means' it isn't though.0 -
The current polling is terrible for Labour but with FPTP and the end of Corbyn Labour can recover.In the long term.isam said:
Well I didn't do the poll, but don't you think it is incredible that a party with seemingly no purpose, who's only real asset has quit is polling almost half of one of the big 2? UKIP shouldn't be getting 20% of the Labour vote. Maybe the poll is wrongYorkcity said:
Ok Private Frazier if you say so.isam said:Amazing... if ICM are correct, for every 21 Labour voters you see in England you will see 10 Kippers, despite UKIPs goal having been achieved
Labour is doomed!0 -
I think it's quite simple: the alternative parties for Conservative voters are: loopy socialist Greens; whining Celtic Nationalists who want to break up Britain, and are heartily disliked by the bulk of the English; the chaotic and addled mess that is Ukip (a one-trick pony deprived of its trick); the Lib Dems, who have turned themselves into a single issue Continuity Remain lobby group, and can't be trusted not to try to club together with the SNP and put Labour into Government if returned in numbers; and an anti-patriotic, Far Left, deeply divided and incompetent Labour Party led by a sympathiser of Irish Republican and Palestinian terrorism, a synthesis of virtually everything that centre-right voters viscerally loathe.El_Capitano said:
I find this fascinating. Theresa May's Conservative party is playing more stridently right-wing mood music than David Cameron's ever did. Yet the 2015 voters are sticking with her and don't appear to mind that the right wing is in the ascendancy. Though Corbyn is never going to appeal to disaffected centrist Tories, the Lib Dems potentially could - but it's not happening, for now at any rate.Black_Rook said:The tables are now out for the Guardian/ICM poll. They've broken down the movement of 2015 voters by Leave/Remain (usual caveats about small sub-samples apply):
* Tory 2015 vote very stable: 90%+ staying with party
Either Ed Miliband really did mop up the entirety of the centrist vote in 2015 (very unlikely); or elections actually aren't won in the centre any more; or the Lib Dems are still toxic; or there are curious undercurrents which we don't yet appreciate.
Apart from a handful of committed Europhiles so distraught by the referendum that they are prepared to protest vote for the yellows, there is no reason for any of the 37% who backed Cameron's Tories to defect to anybody else. They have nowhere else to go.
And that, post-boundary reform, is more than enough for Theresa May to win the next election by itself.0 -
Mr. City, indeed, provided Corbyn can't rewrite the rulebook. If he does, and Labour has him/a similar successor for a long period, someone else will usurp Labour (or they'll split and I Can't Believe It's Not Labour will take over as a separate party).0
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Will people really object to a 3 Bn exit bill ?0
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That's not really the right analogy, though, is it? When you join a club you are contracting with a third party who is responsible for managing and probably owns (or is otherwise solely responsible) for its assets, and your fee simply purchases services for a defined period of time.Sandpit said:
But most people who choose to resign from a club, giving two years' notice as required, don't expect to get a bill for stuff the club does after they've left.Ishmael_Z said:
It's about 4 months net contributions - so, yes, not very much in context.asjohnstone said:Normal people hear 3bn and think it's a vast sum on money, they don't realize it's basically chump change.
The EU is 'owned' by its members; there is no third party with whom you are contracting, and hence the better analogy is the trust or collective, or business partnership. If as part of such you all agree to invest in various long-term ventures, funded on a pay-as-you-go basis, but a bit later you suddenly decide to withdraw your participation, it isn't unreasonable for the remaining members to suggest that you might have some outstanding liabilities and can't simply walk away and leave them with your share of the bill.0 -
Almost a description of where I find myself... but only almost.Black_Rook said:
Apart from a handful of committed Europhiles so distraught by the referendum that they are prepared to protest vote for the yellows, there is no reason for any of the 37% who backed Cameron's Tories to defect to anybody else. They have nowhere else to go.
Europhile: Yes
Distraught: Yes
Part of Cameron's 2015 37%: Yes
Switched to the Lib Dems: Yes
Protest voting: No
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Interesting. I'm pretty sure the EU is not going to budge on the payments. It may not be the full €60 billion, but they will want an enforceable commitment in the tens of billions. We won't walk away, of course. We wouldn't be able to fly out of the country for a start. But it could get very messy.Big_G_NorthWales said:Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved0 -
It depends entirely what the rules of the club say. If we have agreed to pay a proportion of the barman's pension, and he isn't due to retire for another 10 years, then we should expect to make a lump sum payment to reflect that. What those on the EU side seem to be doing is to try to enlarge that principle to cover all and any projects which we agreed in principle were a good thing while we were members.Sandpit said:
But most people who choose to resign from a club, giving two years' notice as required, don't expect to get a bill for stuff the club does after they've left.Ishmael_Z said:
It's about 4 months net contributions - so, yes, not very much in context.asjohnstone said:Normal people hear 3bn and think it's a vast sum on money, they don't realize it's basically chump change.
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Indeed - and it may not actually take very long. Contrary to the expectations of many who comment here, I believe that the chances of a successful challenge to Corbyn next year to be high. What puzzles me is that I would expect Corbyn to know that himself. On that basis, what does he have to gain from stringing things out - other than the pretty unlikely prospect of a change to the leadership rules this autumn?Yorkcity said:
The current polling is terrible for Labour but with FPTP and the end of Corbyn Labour can recover.In the long term.isam said:
Well I didn't do the poll, but don't you think it is incredible that a party with seemingly no purpose, who's only real asset has quit is polling almost half of one of the big 2? UKIP shouldn't be getting 20% of the Labour vote. Maybe the poll is wrongYorkcity said:
Ok Private Frazier if you say so.isam said:Amazing... if ICM are correct, for every 21 Labour voters you see in England you will see 10 Kippers, despite UKIPs goal having been achieved
Labour is doomed!0 -
Quite so. The more outrageous the EU's headline figure, the happier Mrs May will be. We can be fairly sure the final bill will be less rather than more. Remoaners (I am a Remainer without the attendant verb-shift) are setting themselves up for disappointment because the outcome will be better than they assert (though obviously worse than the Leavers projected in their half-forgotten billboards). In the end it will be the familiar Euro-muddle and England will sigh "plus ça change".RobD said:
I think that would be touted as a huge win for May!Pulpstar said:Will people really object to a 3 Bn exit bill ?
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I applied for an EU civil service job once and the perks were insane. If you were moving from your home country to another country, you got a 10% boost to your salary to help pay for trips home!chestnut said:
When people hear the size of the average eurocrat pension, yes they will.Pulpstar said:Will people really object to a 3 Bn exit bill ?
It will probably be good for Leave though.0 -
In fact, only one in ten (10%) are prepared to accept payments equating to less than half of that (£20 billion). One in seven (15%) would stretch to a £10b payment, with a third (33%) prepared to accept a fractional £3 billion in compensation for commitments made by the EU when the UK was a member.
In case the EU thinks it can divide and conquer, only a single voting sub-group reaches majority support for the £3 billion payment – Lib Dem Remainers (53%) – although Labour Remainers (49%) and the few Liberal Democrat Leavers (49%) nearly join them in the ranks who would find such a payment acceptable.
When it comes to a £10 billion or indeed a £20 billion exit fee – never mind more than that, the British public appear minded to offer the EU some kind of Chuchillian two-fingered gesture.
If this is accurate, the public will swing firmly behind rock hard Brexit.0 -
Possibly, but this rather depends firstly (and most crucially) on whether the Far Left can get what they would view as an appropriate ideological successor to Corbyn voted in to replace him; secondly on how badly mauled Labour is at the next election; thirdly on whether it finally splits into two or more factions (not impossible if the next leader is another Far Leftist;) fourthly on how bad the accumulated reputational damage of the past decade is to the party brand, and whether this places a durable and low ceiling on its potential vote; fifthly on Scotland (can Labour ever regain enough strength to win without Scottish votes, and if not then what;) and finally on whether or not a credible rival for main Opposition party in England emerges to challenge it.Yorkcity said:
The current polling is terrible for Labour but with FPTP and the end of Corbyn Labour can recover.In the long term.isam said:
Well I didn't do the poll, but don't you think it is incredible that a party with seemingly no purpose, who's only real asset has quit is polling almost half of one of the big 2? UKIP shouldn't be getting 20% of the Labour vote. Maybe the poll is wrongYorkcity said:
Ok Private Frazier if you say so.isam said:Amazing... if ICM are correct, for every 21 Labour voters you see in England you will see 10 Kippers, despite UKIPs goal having been achieved
Labour is doomed!
The insurance provided by FPTP in the surviving Labour heartlands provides it with some hope, but all the same there's every chance that it might eventually go the way of the post-WWI Liberals.0 -
They reject 3 billion in the ICM but 10 and 20 billion rejection is compelling.Pulpstar said:Will people really object to a 3 Bn exit bill ?
It is too early to say but the EU may have made a mistake by siding with Spain over Gibraltar and the anger it has caused in the UK should have been avoided by at this stage.
If the EU compound the Spain - Gibraltar problem by demanding a divorce figure deemed unreasonable by the UK and insist on ECJ jurisdiction even in the transistional period I could see a huge backlash against the EU within the UK and real support for a strong stance from Theresa May.
The dynamic would change also for the Lib Dems as the EU became unacceptable and it could also impact on Scotland as I could not see Nicola selling the EU to the Scots who would have to give back the fishing rights to Brussels.
These are very interesting times0 -
Some of the people objecting would have voted Remain and so were willing to accept paying a multiple of that every year.Pulpstar said:Will people really object to a 3 Bn exit bill ?
Odd isn't it.
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Unduly pessimistic, I think, Mr Rook. A lot of those who voted Conservative at the last general election did so in the hope and expectation that the Coalition would continue. With Mrs May now in charge of the Conservative Party, and adopting a totally different strategy, the present government is far from what many people really wanted. At present the situation is opaque because of the noise over Brexit, and so people are giving Mrs May the benefit of the doubt still. However, that is unlikely to last.Black_Rook said:Apart from a handful of committed Europhiles so distraught by the referendum that they are prepared to protest vote for the yellows, there is no reason for any of the 37% who backed Cameron's Tories to defect to anybody else. They have nowhere else to go.
So there is every reason why many of the 37% who backed Cameron will move to the Liberal Democrats - indeed, many have already done so. On top of that, of course, we have the miserable and incompetent Conservative administrations in so many of our Shire Halls. There will not be much in the way of a Tory boost in this May`s elections. Instead they will signal the beginning of the end. There is every good reason to be optimistic!
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Far too early to tell. I think we'll get a better idea of what the public will or won't follow nearer the end of the negotiation process than the beginning, when people have had an opportunity (or, more accurately, have had it up to here) with all the relevant arguments.chestnut said:In fact, only one in ten (10%) are prepared to accept payments equating to less than half of that (£20 billion). One in seven (15%) would stretch to a £10b payment, with a third (33%) prepared to accept a fractional £3 billion in compensation for commitments made by the EU when the UK was a member.
In case the EU thinks it can divide and conquer, only a single voting sub-group reaches majority support for the £3 billion payment – Lib Dem Remainers (53%) – although Labour Remainers (49%) and the few Liberal Democrat Leavers (49%) nearly join them in the ranks who would find such a payment acceptable.
When it comes to a £10 billion or indeed a £20 billion exit fee – never mind more than that, the British public appear minded to offer the EU some kind of Chuchillian two-fingered gesture.
If this is accurate, the public will swing firmly behind rock hard Brexit.0 -
I read something the other day that gave the average pension at close to 70k (can't recall if euros or sterling).RobD said:
I applied for an EU civil service job once and the perks were insane. If you were moving from your home country to another country, you got a 10% boost to your salary to help pay for trips home!chestnut said:
When people hear the size of the average eurocrat pension, yes they will.Pulpstar said:Will people really object to a 3 Bn exit bill ?
It will probably be good for Leave though.
People will go stratospheric if that's true - and it won't just be in the UK.0 -
Yes, that's a better way of putting it. Issues like future pensions shouldn't be too difficult to sort out, but the EU seem to want us to pay 'our share' of the bill for their newly approved clubhouse - which we won't be allowed to use when it's finished!Ishmael_Z said:
It depends entirely what the rules of the club say. If we have agreed to pay a proportion of the barman's pension, and he isn't due to retire for another 10 years, then we should expect to make a lump sum payment to reflect that. What those on the EU side seem to be doing is to try to enlarge that principle to cover all and any projects which we agreed in principle were a good thing while we were members.Sandpit said:
But most people who choose to resign from a club, giving two years' notice as required, don't expect to get a bill for stuff the club does after they've left.Ishmael_Z said:
It's about 4 months net contributions - so, yes, not very much in context.asjohnstone said:Normal people hear 3bn and think it's a vast sum on money, they don't realize it's basically chump change.
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The agency I was applying to was 2% of your annual salary every year. Didn't seem all that outrageous, although my experience with pensions is limited, so maybe that is a super good deal in terms of a defined benefit scheme.chestnut said:
I read something the other day that gave the average pension at close to 70k (can't recall if euros or sterling).RobD said:
I applied for an EU civil service job once and the perks were insane. If you were moving from your home country to another country, you got a 10% boost to your salary to help pay for trips home!chestnut said:
When people hear the size of the average eurocrat pension, yes they will.Pulpstar said:Will people really object to a 3 Bn exit bill ?
It will probably be good for Leave though.
People will go stratospheric if that's true - and it won't just be in the UK.0 -
I think you are wrong to assume that all of Corbyn's support among the membership is hard left. In fact, I suspect he would struggle to be re- elected this year - and that next year he will be defeated decisively.Black_Rook said:
Possibly, but this rather depends firstly (and most crucially) on whether the Far Left can get what they would view as an appropriate ideological successor to Corbyn voted in to replace him; secondly on how badly mauled Labour is at the next election; thirdly on whether it finally splits into two or more factions (not impossible if the next leader is another Far Leftist;) fourthly on how bad the accumulated reputational damage of the past decade is to the party brand, and whether this places a durable and low ceiling on its potential vote; fifthly on Scotland (can Labour ever regain enough strength to win without Scottish votes, and if not then what;) and finally on whether or not a credible rival for main Opposition party in England emerges to challenge it.Yorkcity said:
The current polling is terrible for Labour but with FPTP and the end of Corbyn Labour can recover.In the long term.isam said:
Well I didn't do the poll, but don't you think it is incredible that a party with seemingly no purpose, who's only real asset has quit is polling almost half of one of the big 2? UKIP shouldn't be getting 20% of the Labour vote. Maybe the poll is wrongYorkcity said:
Ok Private Frazier if you say so.isam said:Amazing... if ICM are correct, for every 21 Labour voters you see in England you will see 10 Kippers, despite UKIPs goal having been achieved
Labour is doomed!
The insurance provided by FPTP in the surviving Labour heartlands provides it with some hope, but all the same there's every chance that it might eventually go the way of the post-WWI Liberals.0 -
I believe Kinnock gets around €100k a year in EU pension (plus whatever Glenys gets) and Mandy around €70k. I wonder how much we still pay Cathy Ashton her recent 'service'?chestnut said:
When people hear the size of the average eurocrat pension, yes they will.Pulpstar said:Will people really object to a 3 Bn exit bill ?
It will probably be good for Leave though.0 -
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I don't think so. Euro-muddles are for internal issues, but we're out now. The EU negotiators will be very unsentimental. The question is whether they will get us to agree to what they are asking for. I think yes. Bear in mind the Brexit case was predicated on there being no cost to it.Restharrow said:
Quite so. The more outrageous the EU's headline figure, the happier Mrs May will be. We can be fairly sure the final bill will be less rather than more. Remoaners (I am a Remainer without the attendant verb-shift) are setting themselves up for disappointment because the outcome will be better than they assert (though obviously worse than the Leavers projected in their half-forgotten billboards). In the end it will be the familiar Euro-muddle and England will sigh "plus ça change".RobD said:
I think that would be touted as a huge win for May!Pulpstar said:Will people really object to a 3 Bn exit bill ?
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In economic policy terms May's Government is to the left of the Coalition!PClipp said:
Unduly pessimistic, I think, Mr Rook. A lot of those who voted Conservative at the last general election did so in the hope and expectation that the Coalition would continue. With Mrs May now in charge of the Conservative Party, and adopting a totally different strategy, the present government is far from what many people really wanted. At present the situation is opaque because of the noise over Brexit, and so people are giving Mrs May the benefit of the doubt still. However, that is unlikely to last.Black_Rook said:Apart from a handful of committed Europhiles so distraught by the referendum that they are prepared to protest vote for the yellows, there is no reason for any of the 37% who backed Cameron's Tories to defect to anybody else. They have nowhere else to go.
So there is every reason why many of the 37% who backed Cameron will move to the Liberal Democrats - indeed, many have already done so. On top of that, of course, we have the miserable and incompetent Conservative administrations in so many of our Shire Halls. There will not be much in the way of a Tory boost in this May`s elections. Instead they will signal the beginning of the end. There is every good reason to be optimistic!0 -
I must have missed this tectonic shift in the polls you describe.PClipp said:
Unduly pessimistic, I think, Mr Rook. A lot of those who voted Conservative at the last general election did so in the hope and expectation that the Coalition would continue. With Mrs May now in charge of the Conservative Party, and adopting a totally different strategy, the present government is far from what many people really wanted. At present the situation is opaque because of the noise over Brexit, and so people are giving Mrs May the benefit of the doubt still. However, that is unlikely to last.Black_Rook said:Apart from a handful of committed Europhiles so distraught by the referendum that they are prepared to protest vote for the yellows, there is no reason for any of the 37% who backed Cameron's Tories to defect to anybody else. They have nowhere else to go.
So there is every reason why many of the 37% who backed Cameron will move to the Liberal Democrats - indeed, many have already done so. On top of that, of course, we have the miserable and incompetent Conservative administrations in so many of our Shire Halls. There will not be much in the way of a Tory boost in this May`s elections. Instead they will signal the beginning of the end. There is every good reason to be optimistic!
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Everyone has 'access' and the bill isn't connected. Once the public work out they are being lied to, again in the name of the EU...asjohnstone said:
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It may not be a hard sell to those on here but if ICM is to be believed it is unacceptable to most ordinary voters and 10 and 20 would cause meltdown in tne UK.asjohnstone said:
The paradox is that the more the EU attempt to be unreasonable the stronger Theresa May will be and they will harm their own cause and by the way, their reputation beyond Europe for fair trade and dealings
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Complete bullseye, it cannot be stressed enough how important the kicking into touch of the posh boys has been to May's respect amongst ex Labour voters. Cameron and Osborne brought out visceral , tribal anti tory hatred. May is the perfect draw for those homeless voters. The quinoa eating South West London middle classes she'll lose are but a drop in the ocean of blue Labour who'll vote for her.another_richard said:
Some of us were pointing out a decade ago how vulnerable Labour were among working class voters.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. Theresa May is playing to a different audience to those who report and comment on what she does.Big_G_NorthWales said:Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved
Yet the Cameroons (and those who report and comment on politics) thought the key voters would be the urban middle classes (which coincidentally were those who report and comment on politics).0 -
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While I think there are some concerning things about Gorsuch's record as a leftie (Hobby Lobby etc.) and not in the least his inclination to avoid answering stuff that even Roberts and Alito answered at their hearings, on balance I think you're probably right.Sean_F said:
To add to my comment, I don't think Gorusch is the Justice the Democrats should be fighting over. He's conservative, but less hard line than Scalia, and independent-minded.The_Apocalypse said:@Pulpstar Depends on who has control of the Senate in 2018 after the elections. Then again, even if the Dems didn't filibuster, in the case of a more right-wing SCOTUS nominee in the future with the Dems (likely) opposing that, the GOP could still pull the nuclear option with majority control of Senate. Really, in order to exert some type of influence over the situation either way, the Dems have to do well in regards to Senate in 2018. If they don't, it's likely the ideological balance of SCOTUS will go to the right. Not a great scenario, especially considering that the SCOTUS should not be a platform for either right or left to enforce an ideological world view on people.
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