Today, I got a questionnaire in the post from Labour, asking about the policies I'd like to see implemented. There are some multiple choice question, and a soace for open ended comment.
Sending me this questionnaire is really a pretty bad idea for two reasons.
Firstly, I live in Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough, one of Labour's safest seats. Finding out what voters round here want won't help them much in the marginals where the election will be decided.
Secondly, despite my address I'm not actually a regular Labour voter, and there's little chance of me voting for them in 2020. I'm now tempted to return the survey with plausible wrong answers, Any reply suggesting Labour should privatise all the schools would presumably be discarded as obviously spurious, but if I said it should be Labour policy to withdraw from the all the remaining legacies of empire, like Cyprus, the Falkland and Gibraltar, Labour might be willing to believe that's what their voters in Sheffield want.
You need to get something about transgender bathrooms in.
Today, I got a questionnaire in the post from Labour, asking about the policies I'd like to see implemented. There are some multiple choice question, and a soace for open ended comment.
Sending me this questionnaire is really a pretty bad idea for two reasons.
Firstly, I live in Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough, one of Labour's safest seats. Finding out what voters round here want won't help them much in the marginals where the election will be decided.
Secondly, despite my address I'm not actually a regular Labour voter, and there's little chance of me voting for them in 2020. I'm now tempted to return the survey with plausible wrong answers, Any reply suggesting Labour should privatise all the schools would presumably be discarded as obviously spurious, but if I said it should be Labour policy to withdraw from the all the remaining legacies of empire, like Cyprus, the Falkland and Gibraltar, Labour might be willing to believe that's what their voters in Sheffield want.
You need to get something about transgender bathrooms in.
What colours do they come in and can you get gold taps
Today, I got a questionnaire in the post from Labour, asking about the policies I'd like to see implemented. There are some multiple choice question, and a soace for open ended comment.
Sending me this questionnaire is really a pretty bad idea for two reasons.
Firstly, I live in Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough, one of Labour's safest seats. Finding out what voters round here want won't help them much in the marginals where the election will be decided.
Secondly, despite my address I'm not actually a regular Labour voter, and there's little chance of me voting for them in 2020. I'm now tempted to return the survey with plausible wrong answers, Any reply suggesting Labour should privatise all the schools would presumably be discarded as obviously spurious, but if I said it should be Labour policy to withdraw from the all the remaining legacies of empire, like Cyprus, the Falkland and Gibraltar, Labour might be willing to believe that's what their voters in Sheffield want.
You need to get something about transgender bathrooms in.
What colours do they come in and can you get gold taps
No, they are stainless steel taps. But they self-identify as gold.
Today, I got a questionnaire in the post from Labour, asking about the policies I'd like to see implemented. There are some multiple choice question, and a soace for open ended comment.
Sending me this questionnaire is really a pretty bad idea for two reasons.
Firstly, I live in Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough, one of Labour's safest seats. Finding out what voters round here want won't help them much in the marginals where the election will be decided.
Secondly, despite my address I'm not actually a regular Labour voter, and there's little chance of me voting for them in 2020. I'm now tempted to return the survey with plausible wrong answers, Any reply suggesting Labour should privatise all the schools would presumably be discarded as obviously spurious, but if I said it should be Labour policy to withdraw from the all the remaining legacies of empire, like Cyprus, the Falkland and Gibraltar, Labour might be willing to believe that's what their voters in Sheffield want.
You could actually do Labour a favour by telling them they should dump Corbyn, etc...
Ref today's ICM poll and the W Mids election, ICM does disaggregate Wales (though annoyingly, includes it in the Midlands column too, so you have to subtract to get the true English Midlands scores). However, by my reckoning, they're:
Ref today's ICM poll and the W Mids election, ICM does disaggregate Wales (though annoyingly, includes it in the Midlands column too, so you have to subtract to get the true English Midlands scores). However, by my reckoning, they're:
Con 48 Lab 21 LD 10 UKIP 15.
The figures for the North of England are:
Con 43 Lab 36 LD 10 UKIP 8
Labour's headlong retreat into the main conurbations, the poorest and (some) ethnic minority areas continues.
The ICM poll doesn't even show the gender differential I've been seeing in a lot of the recent YouGov data, which I was slightly surprised by. Women as well as men deserting in their droves.
Re- Corbyn. I think we have reached the point where his continuing as Leader should be viewed as an act of malevolence on his part.
That point was reached prior to the vote of no confidence
He appears to have no sense of self respect at all - and how he is going to be viewed in the history books.
On Corbyn's terms he is actually incredibly successful:
* He is killing the Labour as primarily a Parliamentary party - something he has always wanted to do. * He has defeated the centre-left - something he has always wanted to do. * He has helped ensure that the UK is going to leave the EU - something he has always wanted to do. * In so doing, he has made Northern Ireland's position within the UK much trickier - something he has always wanted to do. * And he has sealed Labour's irrelevance in Scotland, so bringing the existence of the British state itself into question - something he has always wanted to do.
The mistake people make is to assume that Corbyn has even the faintest interest in winning elections or of being Prime Minister. He really doesn't. Like those who surround him, he is well-off, sheltered from the real world and is playing (literally) a long-term game that he has always known he will not live to see the end of. But ask him whether his actions are bringing the day closer when the proletariat awakens from its slumber in order to seize control of the means of production and he will tell you, unequivocally, yes.
Ref today's ICM poll and the W Mids election, ICM does disaggregate Wales (though annoyingly, includes it in the Midlands column too, so you have to subtract to get the true English Midlands scores). However, by my reckoning, they're:
Con 48 Lab 21 LD 10 UKIP 15.
The figures for the North of England are:
Con 43 Lab 36 LD 10 UKIP 8
Labour's headlong retreat into the main conurbations, the poorest and (some) ethnic minority areas continues.
There are plenty of those in Birmingham, Coventry and the Black Country. Which is why Simon losing the West Mids Mayoralty would flabber my gast so much
10/3 on Obama care not being repealed could be value depending on how repeal is defined... 1/5 on wall construction beginning this year? Surely Donald has enough influence to convince someone to break ground somewhere along the border...
@David_Herdson What were the 2015GE results for reference ?
They're on the piece I wrote on Saturday. From the top of my head, I think Conservative was about 5.5 per cent up in the Midlands and 12 per cent down in the North.
@David_Herdson What were the 2015GE results for reference ?
They're on the piece I wrote on Saturday. From the top of my head, I think Conservative was about 5.5 per cent up in the Midlands and 12 per cent down in the North.
@David_Herdson What were the 2015GE results for reference ?
They're on the piece I wrote on Saturday. From the top of my head, I think Conservative was about 5.5 per cent up in the Midlands and 12 per cent down in the North.
If Macron wins, I'll be forking out £144 in premium charges to them
They have not advised me that I qualify for Premium charges yet, but I am pretty sure by the end of this market I will be joining that very select club and probably paying about ten times as much.
...if you say "Space Ghetto" in an American accent it is "Spice Girl" in Scottish?
Haha! Nice one! Even better than saying "Pythagoras" in a French accent and getting Peter Gower.
Meanwhile, on Nigel Farage at Paddy Power, him turning himself into a brand makes me think he's not exactly going to be the mastermind of Calexit, but rather just a face on the packaging.
Mr. Sandpit, I was just looking at Ladbrokes' markets.
Hmm. I'm assuming you believe the Mercedes engine to be superior to the Ferrari, hence the bet?
I'm not sure I agree.
Edited extra bit: or are you thinking of the twisty bits?
I think that the tight street circuit at Adelaide flattered Ferrari on Sunday, don't think they're as close to the Mercs as the market for China suggests. They'll also have the medium tyres, on which the drivers were doing race-distance stints in testing, so potentially tyres are less of an issue than they were a fortnight ago and with more overtaking opportunities.
@David_Herdson What were the 2015GE results for reference ?
They're on the piece I wrote on Saturday. From the top of my head, I think Conservative was about 5.5 per cent up in the Midlands and 12 per cent down in the North.
I make the Midlands [102 seats]
Con 41.3 Lab 34.2 UKIP 15.0 LD 5.7 Green 3.1
and the North [154 seats]
Lab 42.4 Con 30.8 UKIP 15.5 LD 6.7 Green 3.4
So from 2015 GE to now, on these figures, is that a 10% Lab to Con swing in both the Midlands and the North?
Has Theresa May expressed any solidarity with Russia on the day that terrorists bombed St Petersburg? Or is she too busy saying war with Spain isn't worth the effort right now? "Jaw jaw not war war" is an exceptionally lazy soundbite. But as advertisers know, an oldie is often a goodie. Just let's not call them "creative".
Mr. Sandpit, I wonder. Vettel was able to follow Hamilton very closely, and later pull away, suggesting the Ferrari's good (relatively) in traffic and faster.
Good news from the Eurozone (it does happen,) but look at the differences between the states. Unemployment falling in Germany and Spain, but broadly unchanged in France and Italy.
Has Theresa May expressed any solidarity with Russia on the day that terrorists bombed St Petersburg? Or is she too busy saying war with Spain isn't worth the effort right now?
I believe Boris has already expressed sympathies on behalf of HMG. No doubt May will follow. Is there a time limit on these sort of things or something?
Good news from the Eurozone (it does happen,) but look at the differences between the states. Unemployment falling in Germany and Spain, but broadly unchanged in France and Italy.
The continuing good news from Spain really does put to bed the idea that the Eurozone only benefits Germany. Italy and France just need to implement some long overdue structural reforms.
Reading the last thread, some of you are WAY too harsh on my generation. Yes, young people will make mistakes, and some have fallen for bad advice re university and certain degrees. The most important thing is that they learn from mistakes, not that they be perfect people.
Also, when I was doing A-Levels, I never met anyone who was going to university to do 'media studies.' This is yet another negative stereotype about young people, sadly.
Thanks to DavidL, Southam, Monksfield and others for providing a more sympathetic voice to the concerns of young people, and a not a harsh and dismissive tone.
In other news, I don't know if PBers have heard of this but there has been a bit of chatter on twitter re Mike Pence and his wife Karen.
This, from a Washington Post profile of Karen Pence has led to the talk on twitter:
In 2002, Mike Pence told the Hill that he never eats alone with a woman other than his wife and that he won’t attend events featuring alcohol without her by his side, either.
Mr. Sandpit, I wonder. Vettel was able to follow Hamilton very closely, and later pull away, suggesting the Ferrari's good (relatively) in traffic and faster.
Hmm.
I agree that Ferrari find it easier to follow closely than Mercedes, that's been a Mercedes weak spot for a while now. But the silver cars will be faster on Saturday and the red cars will struggle to overtake them on Sunday.
Reading the last thread, some of you are WAY too harsh on my generation. Yes, young people will make mistakes, and some have fallen for bad advice re university and certain degrees. The most important thing is that they learn from mistakes, not that they be perfect people.
Also, when I was doing A-Levels, I never met anyone who was going to university to do 'media studies.' This is yet another negative stereotype about young people, sadly.
Thanks to DavidL, Southam, Monksfield and others for providing a more sympathetic voice to the concerns of young people, and a not a harsh and dismissive tone.
In other news, I don't know if PBers have heard of this but there has been a bit of chatter on twitter re Mike Pence and his wife Karen.
This, from a Washington Post profile of Karen Pence has led to the talk on twitter:
In 2002, Mike Pence told the Hill that he never eats alone with a woman other than his wife and that he won’t attend events featuring alcohol without her by his side, either.
If Macron wins, I'll be forking out £144 in premium charges to them
They have not advised me that I qualify for Premium charges yet, but I am pretty sure by the end of this market I will be joining that very select club and probably paying about ten times as much.
Takes a bit of the shine off it doesn't it?
Any single win that constitutes more than 50% of your gross profits over the lifetime of your account will be excluded from the calculation
Might save you.
Won't me, unless I REALLY weigh into Macron, but I'm not that confident yet.
Your book would NOT pay the premium charge on my account actually !
Today, I got a questionnaire in the post from Labour, asking about the policies I'd like to see implemented. There are some multiple choice question, and a soace for open ended comment.
Sending me this questionnaire is really a pretty bad idea for two reasons.
Firstly, I live in Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough, one of Labour's safest seats. Finding out what voters round here want won't help them much in the marginals where the election will be decided.
Secondly, despite my address I'm not actually a regular Labour voter, and there's little chance of me voting for them in 2020. I'm now tempted to return the survey with plausible wrong answers, Any reply suggesting Labour should privatise all the schools would presumably be discarded as obviously spurious, but if I said it should be Labour policy to withdraw from the all the remaining legacies of empire, like Cyprus, the Falkland and Gibraltar, Labour might be willing to believe that's what their voters in Sheffield want.
You need to get something about transgender bathrooms in.
What colours do they come in and can you get gold taps
No, they are stainless steel taps. But they self-identify as gold.
Moyes said the reporter "might get a slap even though you're a woman"
So then - it should have been "... a slap even though you're a reporter" rather than making it about offering violence to a woman?
Slightly more seriously - would he have dared to make such a statement to a man knowing that another man has the physical capability to start a fight over it whereas most women simply are not strong enough to take on most men?
Mrs C, it does sound like it was a lighthearted comment, from this: "Both Moyes and Sparks were laughing during the exchange and the former Everton and Manchester United manager later apologised to the reporter, who did not make a complaint."
Be nice if the media gave as attention to the funding of refuges for male victims of domestic violence, or the shocking lack of FGM convictions, but there we are.
Good news from the Eurozone (it does happen,) but look at the differences between the states. Unemployment falling in Germany and Spain, but broadly unchanged in France and Italy.
The themes of tomorrow's TV debate in France will be:
* job creation * security * each candidate's "social model"
"Social model" covers national insurance, education, health, benefits, and, crucially, the 35-hour week.
Fillon wants to lengthen the 35-hour week and sack half a million public sector workers. Macron wants to give employers scope to make the working week more flexible. (A vote-winner, huh?) Le Pen wants to keep it but allow local flexibility. (The difference between local and national flexibility for a real worker doing a real job isn't clear.) Hamon wants to reduce it to 32 hours. So does Mélenchon.
Moyes said the reporter "might get a slap even though you're a woman"
So then - it should have been "... a slap even though you're a reporter" rather than making it about offering violence to a woman?
Slightly more seriously - would he have dared to make such a statement to a man knowing that another man has the physical capability to start a fight over it whereas most women simply are not strong enough to take on most men?
Q2 I would have thought almost certainly.
I am surprised he is not in trouble for implying a distinction between men and women!
It seems that the 5 people so far charged by the police over the Croydon attack are, in fact, all white.
Strange the attack happened in Croydon in that case. They must see brown and black people everyday but decided THIS brown person was the one they wanted to attack? Doesn't make sense........not that attacks like this ever do tho.
Good news from the Eurozone (it does happen,) but look at the differences between the states. Unemployment falling in Germany and Spain, but broadly unchanged in France and Italy.
The continuing good news from Spain really does put to bed the idea that the Eurozone only benefits Germany. Italy and France just need to implement some long overdue structural reforms.
Maybe we can start to take that point seriously when the unemployment rate gap between Germany and Spain is less than 10 points instead of the 14 points it is now.
@David_Herdson What were the 2015GE results for reference ?
They're on the piece I wrote on Saturday. From the top of my head, I think Conservative was about 5.5 per cent up in the Midlands and 12 per cent down in the North.
Meanwhile, it looks like the Democrats will have enough votes to filibuster the Gorsuch nomination. He'll be on the SCOTUS either way though, as the GOP can use the nuclear option.
Good news from the Eurozone (it does happen,) but look at the differences between the states. Unemployment falling in Germany and Spain, but broadly unchanged in France and Italy.
A "low" of 9.5%. hmmm....
Quite so, Mr. Nunu, if the UK had an unemployment rate of 9.5% there would be hell to pay.
The themes of tomorrow's TV debate in France will be:
* job creation * security * each candidate's "social model"
"Social model" covers national insurance, education, health, benefits, and, crucially, the 35-hour week.
Fillon wants to lengthen the 35-hour week and sack half a million public sector workers. Macron wants to give employers scope to make the working week more flexible. (A vote-winner, huh?) Le Pen wants to keep it but allow local flexibility. (The difference between local and national flexibility for a real worker doing a real job isn't clear.) Hamon wants to reduce it to 32 hours. So does Mélenchon.
Working 10 to 4 to misquote Dolly Parton if Hamon or Melenchon win!
Good news from the Eurozone (it does happen,) but look at the differences between the states. Unemployment falling in Germany and Spain, but broadly unchanged in France and Italy.
The continuing good news from Spain really does put to bed the idea that the Eurozone only benefits Germany. Italy and France just need to implement some long overdue structural reforms.
Well, of course, the Eurozone's problems have never been entirely the fault of the Euro, and insofar as they are down to the Euro different countries are affected in different ways. But it doesn't follow that it has been a benevolent creation.
Italy has suffered from a near-total absence of economic growth throughout the 21st century, and a hollowing out of its manufacturing base. Ireland and Spain were both very hard hit by a property boom caused by capital outflows from the core, and one-size-fits-all interest rates that were far too low for them. Germany went into the Euro with a depressed exchange rate - which did wonders for industry and allowed it to flood the periphery with cheap exports, against which local industries were defenceless.
A number of states (the worst offender being Greece, of course,) borrowed at artificially low interest rates like it was going out of fashion, and were then forced post-2008 into really harsh austerity policies, where previously they would've been able to devalue their way out of trouble. In the Greek case at the very least, their debts from the crash and all the subsequent bailouts are now so enormous that the country long since passed over the event horizon: the austerity is so severe as to be self-defeating, the debts can never be paid back, but nor will the creditors forgive them. And, of course, there's still no common government, treasury, taxation, debt issuance and fiscal transfers for the Eurozone - the kinds of mechanisms that iron out the imbalances and disparities between regions, and give those that are poorer and weaker the chance to keep up and achieve prosperity, as is the case in a single sovereign state.
Apart from all that, the Euro has worked really well.
In any event, Spanish unemployment is still dreadful (and much worse for the young,) and I would be interested to know what effect the events of the last decade have had on real wages there.
Be nice if the media gave as attention to the funding of refuges for male victims of domestic violence, or the shocking lack of FGM convictions, but there we are.
Yes Mr Dancer it would be nice if such violence was given the attention it truly deserves but that neglect does not invalidate the violence or threats of violence that many women have to put up with every day.
I would prosecute the parents of any girl with FGM whether it was done abroad or not. I would ban circumcision as well except in cases of untreatable phimosis and even then it would have to be done by an NHS doctor.
I do not give a d*mn about any religion/culture requiring genital mutilation. There is no excuse for mutilating a child. If an adult wants to do these things to themselves then fair enough, that is his or her choice.
Meanwhile, it looks like the Democrats will have enough votes to filibuster the Gorsuch nomination. He'll be on the SCOTUS either way though, as the GOP can use the nuclear option.
It'd be an error, the next SCOTUS nomination for Trump (Or Pence) will be far easier. Statistically that is likely to be one of the more liberal judges.
Slightly more seriously - would he have dared to make such a statement to a man knowing that another man has the physical capability to start a fight over it whereas most women simply are not strong enough to take on most men?
@Pulpstar Depends on who has control of the Senate in 2018 after the elections. Then again, even if the Dems didn't filibuster, in the case of a more right-wing SCOTUS nominee in the future with the Dems (likely) opposing that, the GOP could still pull the nuclear option with majority control of Senate. Really, in order to exert some type of influence over the situation either way, the Dems have to do well in regards to Senate in 2018. If they don't, it's likely the ideological balance of SCOTUS will go to the right. Not a great scenario, especially considering that the SCOTUS should not be a platform for either right or left to enforce an ideological world view on people.
@Pulpstar Depends on who has control of the Senate in 2018 after the elections. Then again, even if the Dems didn't filibuster, in the case of a more right-wing SCOTUS nominee in the future with the Dems (likely) opposing that, the GOP could still pull the nuclear option with majority control of Senate. Really, in order to exert some type of influence over the situation either way, the Dems have to do well in regards to Senate in 2018. If they don't, it's likely the ideological balance of SCOTUS will go to the right. Not a great scenario, especially considering that the SCOTUS should not be a platform for either right or left to enforce an ideological world view on people.
It's hard to see anything other than a Republican hold in 2018, given the seats being contested.
A level playing field and the law applied equally across the board is essential.
Mr. Sandpit, he's 2.75 not to be classified with Ladbrokes, but experience (especially with Merhi) has taught me that'll be made null and void.
Edited extra bit: might be worth a shot, just to see if they pay out, but I do strongly anticipate it being made void and the stake returned.
That's a good shout on Wherlein, will throw a tenner at it and see what happens! Probably gonna be void if he doesn't take any part in the meeting, as you say.
The tables are now out for the Guardian/ICM poll. They've broken down the movement of 2015 voters by Leave/Remain (usual caveats about small sub-samples apply):
* Tory 2015 vote very stable: 90%+ staying with party
I find this fascinating. Theresa May's Conservative party is playing more stridently right-wing mood music than David Cameron's ever did. Yet the 2015 voters are sticking with her and don't appear to mind that the right wing is in the ascendancy. Though Corbyn is never going to appeal to disaffected centrist Tories, the Lib Dems potentially could - but it's not happening, for now at any rate.
Either Ed Miliband really did mop up the entirety of the centrist vote in 2015 (very unlikely); or elections actually aren't won in the centre any more; or the Lib Dems are still toxic; or there are curious undercurrents which we don't yet appreciate.
Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved
The tables are now out for the Guardian/ICM poll. They've broken down the movement of 2015 voters by Leave/Remain (usual caveats about small sub-samples apply):
* Tory 2015 vote very stable: 90%+ staying with party
I find this fascinating. Theresa May's Conservative party is playing more stridently right-wing mood music than David Cameron's ever did. Yet the 2015 voters are sticking with her and don't appear to mind that the right wing is in the ascendancy. Though Corbyn is never going to appeal to disaffected centrist Tories, the Lib Dems potentially could - but it's not happening, for now at any rate.
Either Ed Miliband really did mop up the entirety of the centrist vote in 2015 (very unlikely); or elections actually aren't won in the centre any more; or the Lib Dems are still toxic; or there are curious undercurrents which we don't yet appreciate.
I think in someway the undercurrents may be explained in my comment on ICM at 7.39pm
Mr. Sandpit, I'd say void is 99% (tried this 2-3 time sin the past). I did have one problem when they errantly called it a failed bet (Merhi had not only failed to be classified, he'd failed to start the race) but when I queried this the stake was returned.
The tables are now out for the Guardian/ICM poll. They've broken down the movement of 2015 voters by Leave/Remain (usual caveats about small sub-samples apply):
* Tory 2015 vote very stable: 90%+ staying with party
I find this fascinating. Theresa May's Conservative party is playing more stridently right-wing mood music than David Cameron's ever did. Yet the 2015 voters are sticking with her and don't appear to mind that the right wing is in the ascendancy. Though Corbyn is never going to appeal to disaffected centrist Tories, the Lib Dems potentially could - but it's not happening, for now at any rate.
Either Ed Miliband really did mop up the entirety of the centrist vote in 2015 (very unlikely); or elections actually aren't won in the centre any more; or the Lib Dems are still toxic; or there are curious undercurrents which we don't yet appreciate.
I think the country has moved very slightly right, and also, more importantly, become less tolerant of waffle - in particular economic waffle. Ed lost on his economic acumen, and that's easily Corbyn's weakest area. Corbyn himself is no great shakes, McDonnell is if anything worse, and they have the schoolgirl with a GCSE in Economics, plus of course the intellectual collossus that is Burgon (although perhaps he's moved on in his responsibilities).
The LDs have lost Vince Cable, who could talk sense sometimes, and have no replacement.
May's government is perceived as a little less 'Tory' because Hammond is a little 'wetter' than Osborne was on things like the deficit. With no opposition he can get away with being so.
Good news from the Eurozone (it does happen,) but look at the differences between the states. Unemployment falling in Germany and Spain, but broadly unchanged in France and Italy.
The continuing good news from Spain really does put to bed the idea that the Eurozone only benefits Germany. Italy and France just need to implement some long overdue structural reforms.
Are you mad? Look at the chart. Spain has undergone the massive pain of internal devaluation to begin only slightly to mitigate the pain the Euro is causing them.
If 18% unemployment is a benefit of the Eurozone no wonder your idea of the relative merits of the EU is so far outside the majority.
Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved
Yes. Theresa May is playing to a different audience to those who report and comment on what she does.
Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved
Yes. Theresa May is playing to a different audience to those who report and comment on what she does.
The tables are now out for the Guardian/ICM poll. They've broken down the movement of 2015 voters by Leave/Remain (usual caveats about small sub-samples apply):
* Tory 2015 vote very stable: 90%+ staying with party
I find this fascinating. Theresa May's Conservative party is playing more stridently right-wing mood music than David Cameron's ever did. Yet the 2015 voters are sticking with her and don't appear to mind that the right wing is in the ascendancy. Though Corbyn is never going to appeal to disaffected centrist Tories, the Lib Dems potentially could - but it's not happening, for now at any rate.
Either Ed Miliband really did mop up the entirety of the centrist vote in 2015 (very unlikely); or elections actually aren't won in the centre any more; or the Lib Dems are still toxic; or there are curious undercurrents which we don't yet appreciate.
In terms of economic policy , I see Theresa May as the most left wing Tory PM since Ted Heath. Clear signs of Hestletinian state interventionism.
The tables are now out for the Guardian/ICM poll. They've broken down the movement of 2015 voters by Leave/Remain (usual caveats about small sub-samples apply):
* Tory 2015 vote very stable: 90%+ staying with party
I find this fascinating. Theresa May's Conservative party is playing more stridently right-wing mood music than David Cameron's ever did. Yet the 2015 voters are sticking with her and don't appear to mind that the right wing is in the ascendancy. Though Corbyn is never going to appeal to disaffected centrist Tories, the Lib Dems potentially could - but it's not happening, for now at any rate.
Either Ed Miliband really did mop up the entirety of the centrist vote in 2015 (very unlikely); or elections actually aren't won in the centre any more; or the Lib Dems are still toxic; or there are curious undercurrents which we don't yet appreciate.
The centre has moved and is now in a different place to where the "centrists" think it is, or should be.
This is because the centre ground of public opinion did favour an element of social liberalism and reform in the 1990s, following some slightly hypocritical and stuffy Tory years, but as those same Centrist parties failed to respond to the challenges of mass immigration, economic turbulence, a lopsided devolution settlement and continued EU political integration it has moved.
The tables are now out for the Guardian/ICM poll. They've broken down the movement of 2015 voters by Leave/Remain (usual caveats about small sub-samples apply):
* Tory 2015 vote very stable: 90%+ staying with party
I find this fascinating. Theresa May's Conservative party is playing more stridently right-wing mood music than David Cameron's ever did. Yet the 2015 voters are sticking with her and don't appear to mind that the right wing is in the ascendancy. Though Corbyn is never going to appeal to disaffected centrist Tories, the Lib Dems potentially could - but it's not happening, for now at any rate.
Either Ed Miliband really did mop up the entirety of the centrist vote in 2015 (very unlikely); or elections actually aren't won in the centre any more; or the Lib Dems are still toxic; or there are curious undercurrents which we don't yet appreciate.
Or your original assertion is incorrect. I find the new government much more to my left wing Toryism, Especially economically, than Osbornism.
Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved
Yes. Theresa May is playing to a different audience to those who report and comment on what she does.
The reassuring point is that despite Sky and BBC constant anti Brexit themes the public are seeing through them. The media needs to understand remain lost and to move on in providing balanced reporting. You only need to watch the smug face of Faisal Islam when he is reporting anything negative by leave and then you see it in others, specially on Sky
The tables are now out for the Guardian/ICM poll. They've broken down the movement of 2015 voters by Leave/Remain (usual caveats about small sub-samples apply):
* Tory 2015 vote very stable: 90%+ staying with party
I find this fascinating. Theresa May's Conservative party is playing more stridently right-wing mood music than David Cameron's ever did. Yet the 2015 voters are sticking with her and don't appear to mind that the right wing is in the ascendancy. Though Corbyn is never going to appeal to disaffected centrist Tories, the Lib Dems potentially could - but it's not happening, for now at any rate.
Either Ed Miliband really did mop up the entirety of the centrist vote in 2015 (very unlikely); or elections actually aren't won in the centre any more; or the Lib Dems are still toxic; or there are curious undercurrents which we don't yet appreciate.
Centrist can mean several things. I suspect what I would like as the centre, the middle ground of politics, is not where most people see it. Centrist is just another label, like Right or Left, that does not really mean anything.
@Pulpstar Depends on who has control of the Senate in 2018 after the elections. Then again, even if the Dems didn't filibuster, in the case of a more right-wing SCOTUS nominee in the future with the Dems (likely) opposing that, the GOP could still pull the nuclear option with majority control of Senate. Really, in order to exert some type of influence over the situation either way, the Dems have to do well in regards to Senate in 2018. If they don't, it's likely the ideological balance of SCOTUS will go to the right. Not a great scenario, especially considering that the SCOTUS should not be a platform for either right or left to enforce an ideological world view on people.
To add to my comment, I don't think Gorusch is the Justice the Democrats should be fighting over. He's conservative, but less hard line than Scalia, and independent-minded.
Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved
Yes. Theresa May is playing to a different audience to those who report and comment on what she does.
Some of us were pointing out a decade ago how vulnerable Labour were among working class voters.
Yet the Cameroons (and those who report and comment on politics) thought the key voters would be the urban middle classes (which coincidentally were those who report and comment on politics).
The tables are now out for the Guardian/ICM poll. They've broken down the movement of 2015 voters by Leave/Remain (usual caveats about small sub-samples apply):
* Tory 2015 vote very stable: 90%+ staying with party
I find this fascinating. Theresa May's Conservative party is playing more stridently right-wing mood music than David Cameron's ever did. Yet the 2015 voters are sticking with her and don't appear to mind that the right wing is in the ascendancy. Though Corbyn is never going to appeal to disaffected centrist Tories, the Lib Dems potentially could - but it's not happening, for now at any rate.
Either Ed Miliband really did mop up the entirety of the centrist vote in 2015 (very unlikely); or elections actually aren't won in the centre any more; or the Lib Dems are still toxic; or there are curious undercurrents which we don't yet appreciate.
The centre has moved and is now in a different place to where the "centrists" think it is, or should be.
This is because the centre ground of public opinion did favour an element of social liberalism and reform in the 1990s, following some slightly hypocritical and stuffy Tory years, but as those same Centrist parties failed to respond to the challenges of mass immigration, economic turbulence, a lopsided devolution settlement and continued EU political integration it has moved.
A bit of wishful thinking there perhaps. It might just as easily be because of the lack of appeal of Labour, and the fact May's done a competent job so far.
There's carrot and stick for the centrists: a carrot towards the Conservatives of reasonably competent governance, and the stick of Corbyn's Labour. The Lib Dem's are finding it hard to get heard (although it seems that is starting to change), and repel many leave-leaning centrists.
We'll see in a few years if the centre ground has shifted or not.
Also, when I was doing A-Levels, I never met anyone who was going to university to do 'media studies.' This is yet another negative stereotype about young people, sadly.
Frankly I feel sorry for anyone who really did want to and then did media studies, given its status as the archetypal 'useless' degree.
Comments
No, they are stainless steel taps. But they self-identify as gold.
Macron 26% Le Pen 25.5% Fillon 17% Melenchon 15% Hamon 10%
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_03-04-2017.pdf
(If that's what you believe.)
Con 48
Lab 21
LD 10
UKIP 15.
The figures for the North of England are:
Con 43
Lab 36
LD 10
UKIP 8
What's the chance that Cameron and Osborne went with the strict white tie dress code just to see if Corbyn and McDonnell could actually turn up correctly dressed?
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/revealed-how-jeremy-corbyn-caused-a-scene-at-the-china-state-banquet/
The ICM poll doesn't even show the gender differential I've been seeing in a lot of the recent YouGov data, which I was slightly surprised by. Women as well as men deserting in their droves.
All good news, and no more than they deserve.
* He is killing the Labour as primarily a Parliamentary party - something he has always wanted to do.
* He has defeated the centre-left - something he has always wanted to do.
* He has helped ensure that the UK is going to leave the EU - something he has always wanted to do.
* In so doing, he has made Northern Ireland's position within the UK much trickier - something he has always wanted to do.
* And he has sealed Labour's irrelevance in Scotland, so bringing the existence of the British state itself into question - something he has always wanted to do.
The mistake people make is to assume that Corbyn has even the faintest interest in winning elections or of being Prime Minister. He really doesn't. Like those who surround him, he is well-off, sheltered from the real world and is playing (literally) a long-term game that he has always known he will not live to see the end of. But ask him whether his actions are bringing the day closer when the proletariat awakens from its slumber in order to seize control of the means of production and he will tell you, unequivocally, yes.
https://youtu.be/uXhLMIDscTI
1/5 on wall construction beginning this year? Surely Donald has enough influence to convince someone to break ground somewhere along the border...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4375996/Ofcom-investigates-Channel-4-News-Westminster-attack.html
http://images.radiotimes.com/namedimage/Jeremy_Corbyn_s_good_humoured_appearance_on_The_Last_Leg_impresses__most__viewers.jpg?quality=85&mode=crop&width=620&height=374&404=tv&url=/uploads/images/original/110305.jpg
china
http://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/106/590x/secondary/corbyn-370953.jpg
Edited extra bit: just put on a small sum.
Con 41.3
Lab 34.2
UKIP 15.0
LD 5.7
Green 3.1
and the North [154 seats]
Lab 42.4
Con 30.8
UKIP 15.5
LD 6.7
Green 3.4
...if you say "Space Ghetto" in an American accent it is "Spice Girl" in Scottish?
Takes a bit of the shine off it doesn't it?
Meanwhile, on Nigel Farage at Paddy Power, him turning himself into a brand makes me think he's not exactly going to be the mastermind of Calexit, but rather just a face on the packaging.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/motor-sport/event/28168542/market?marketId=1.130576003
Hmm. I'm assuming you believe the Mercedes engine to be superior to the Ferrari, hence the bet?
I'm not sure I agree.
Edited extra bit: or are you thinking of the twisty bits?
In real life that's an upgrade, but to many its now less serious perhaps
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.standard.co.uk/news/london/jeremy-corbyns-son-mugged-by-moped-thief-while-walking-home-in-holloway-a3505621.html?amp
Hmm.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/03/ecuador-presidential-election-conflicting-exit-polls-signal-tight-finish
Good news from the Eurozone (it does happen,) but look at the differences between the states. Unemployment falling in Germany and Spain, but broadly unchanged in France and Italy.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/londoners-diary/londoners-diary-miriam-gonzalez-chokes-on-the-price-of-uk-artichokes-a3505801.html
Also, when I was doing A-Levels, I never met anyone who was going to university to do 'media studies.' This is yet another negative stereotype about young people, sadly.
Thanks to DavidL, Southam, Monksfield and others for providing a more sympathetic voice to the concerns of young people, and a not a harsh and dismissive tone.
In other news, I don't know if PBers have heard of this but there has been a bit of chatter on twitter re Mike Pence and his wife Karen.
This, from a Washington Post profile of Karen Pence has led to the talk on twitter:
In 2002, Mike Pence told the Hill that he never eats alone with a woman other than his wife and that he won’t attend events featuring alcohol without her by his side, either.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/karen-pence-is-the-vice-presidents-prayer-warrior-gut-check-and-shield/2017/03/28/3d7a26ce-0a01-11e7-8884-96e6a6713f4b_story.html?utm_term=.a1f9913cee41
Might save you.
Won't me, unless I REALLY weigh into Macron, but I'm not that confident yet.
Your book would NOT pay the premium charge on my account actually !
Slightly more seriously - would he have dared to make such a statement to a man knowing that another man has the physical capability to start a fight over it whereas most women simply are not strong enough to take on most men?
"Both Moyes and Sparks were laughing during the exchange and the former Everton and Manchester United manager later apologised to the reporter, who did not make a complaint."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/39484238
Be nice if the media gave as attention to the funding of refuges for male victims of domestic violence, or the shocking lack of FGM convictions, but there we are.
* job creation
* security
* each candidate's "social model"
"Social model" covers national insurance, education, health, benefits, and, crucially, the 35-hour week.
Fillon wants to lengthen the 35-hour week and sack half a million public sector workers.
Macron wants to give employers scope to make the working week more flexible. (A vote-winner, huh?)
Le Pen wants to keep it but allow local flexibility. (The difference between local and national flexibility for a real worker doing a real job isn't clear.)
Hamon wants to reduce it to 32 hours.
So does Mélenchon.
I am surprised he is not in trouble for implying a distinction between men and women!
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7186#fullreport
OK, so I was a touch out on the Midlands but about right with the North.
Cheers.
Some F1 news today, Pascal Wherlein will miss China and possibly Bahrain too, still not properly recovered from an out-of-season injury.
https://twitter.com/harrismonkey/status/848951887911059458
Italy has suffered from a near-total absence of economic growth throughout the 21st century, and a hollowing out of its manufacturing base. Ireland and Spain were both very hard hit by a property boom caused by capital outflows from the core, and one-size-fits-all interest rates that were far too low for them. Germany went into the Euro with a depressed exchange rate - which did wonders for industry and allowed it to flood the periphery with cheap exports, against which local industries were defenceless.
A number of states (the worst offender being Greece, of course,) borrowed at artificially low interest rates like it was going out of fashion, and were then forced post-2008 into really harsh austerity policies, where previously they would've been able to devalue their way out of trouble. In the Greek case at the very least, their debts from the crash and all the subsequent bailouts are now so enormous that the country long since passed over the event horizon: the austerity is so severe as to be self-defeating, the debts can never be paid back, but nor will the creditors forgive them. And, of course, there's still no common government, treasury, taxation, debt issuance and fiscal transfers for the Eurozone - the kinds of mechanisms that iron out the imbalances and disparities between regions, and give those that are poorer and weaker the chance to keep up and achieve prosperity, as is the case in a single sovereign state.
Apart from all that, the Euro has worked really well.
In any event, Spanish unemployment is still dreadful (and much worse for the young,) and I would be interested to know what effect the events of the last decade have had on real wages there.
I would prosecute the parents of any girl with FGM whether it was done abroad or not. I would ban circumcision as well except in cases of untreatable phimosis and even then it would have to be done by an NHS doctor.
I do not give a d*mn about any religion/culture requiring genital mutilation. There is no excuse for mutilating a child. If an adult wants to do these things to themselves then fair enough, that is his or her choice.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/jose-mourinho-jokes-strangling-manager-5665907
A level playing field and the law applied equally across the board is essential.
Mr. Sandpit, he's 2.75 not to be classified with Ladbrokes, but experience (especially with Merhi) has taught me that'll be made null and void.
Edited extra bit: might be worth a shot, just to see if they pay out, but I do strongly anticipate it being made void and the stake returned.
Anyway, I must be off - things to do
Either Ed Miliband really did mop up the entirety of the centrist vote in 2015 (very unlikely); or elections actually aren't won in the centre any more; or the Lib Dems are still toxic; or there are curious undercurrents which we don't yet appreciate.
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved
The LDs have lost Vince Cable, who could talk sense sometimes, and have no replacement.
May's government is perceived as a little less 'Tory' because Hammond is a little 'wetter' than Osborne was on things like the deficit. With no opposition he can get away with being so.
If 18% unemployment is a benefit of the Eurozone no wonder your idea of the relative merits of the EU is so far outside the majority.
Labour is doomed!
This is because the centre ground of public opinion did favour an element of social liberalism and reform in the 1990s, following some slightly hypocritical and stuffy Tory years, but as those same Centrist parties failed to respond to the challenges of mass immigration, economic turbulence, a lopsided devolution settlement and continued EU political integration it has moved.
Especially economically, than Osbornism.
Yet the Cameroons (and those who report and comment on politics) thought the key voters would be the urban middle classes (which coincidentally were those who report and comment on politics).
There's carrot and stick for the centrists: a carrot towards the Conservatives of reasonably competent governance, and the stick of Corbyn's Labour. The Lib Dem's are finding it hard to get heard (although it seems that is starting to change), and repel many leave-leaning centrists.
We'll see in a few years if the centre ground has shifted or not.