Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
In my real world he just said we would stand by the people of Gibraltar with the same resolve as we did those of the Falklands. Possibly a clumsy analogy as it gives people with an agenda rope to sensationalise, but he didn't advocate war with Spain
Standing by Gibraltar in the same way that we stood by the Falklands involves armed conflict.
On topic... I disagree that the value bet is in this market is a lay of Le Pen. In fact, I would go as far as to say that her odds are the closest to being correct, in terms of looking at it from the perspective of where things will stand when the first round result is known in 3 weeks time.
If it were Le Pen v Macron and I had 10k green on Macron and no win on Le Pen, would I sacrifice 2k on Le Pen at odds of 5, to give myself a guaranteed win of 7.5-8k? Yes, like a shot and so would many others. That is why her price is likely to be lower than 5 if she makes it through. That doesn't mean that I think that price correctly reflects her chances of winning, because I would put her chances of winning against Macron at less than 10%.
On the other hand, if it were Le Pen v Fillon or Melenchon then her actual chances improve greatly, so her price would drop much lower than 5.
The current odds on this market are all over the place. Macron, if he gets through are likely to to be around 1.3 and as Mr Meeks suggests, his chances of doing so must be pretty likely, therefore he is exceptionally good value, from both a betting and a trading perspective at his current price of 1.68
Fillon is the lay of the market. I would agree with Mr Meeks assessment of a 12% chance of making it thorugh to the next round and, if he does, it is probably a 50/50 chance of whether he faces Macron or Le Pen. If he faces Macron, his odds are likely to be no better than 4.5. I don't subscribe to the view that if he makes it thorugh, his popularity will have improved greatly. His likeliest route to the final is in a tight 3 way finish for 2nd place with all 3 around 20%
Melenchon at 55 is also exceptional value at the moment. From polling around 11%, his performance in the last TV debate gave him momentum which has taken him to 16% in one poll, just one point behind Fillon. If he were able to put in a similar performance in tuesday's TV debate, it is quite probable that there will be at least one poll showing him level with or even ahead of Fillon by the end of this week. If so, what price Melenchon then?
Firstly the gap between Le Pen v Macron and Le Pen v Fillon is not actually that big, Odoxa last week had Le Pen on 41% against Macron for instance. Secondly I expect Fillon to outperform his polling as centre right parties have consistently outperformed their polling in all recent western elections and to clearly beat Melenchon for third in the end
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
In my real world he just said we would stand by the people of Gibraltar with the same resolve as we did those of the Falklands. Possibly a clumsy analogy as it gives people with an agenda rope to sensationalise, but he didn't advocate war with Spain
Standing by Gibraltar in the same way that we stood by the Falklands involves armed conflict.
Not really, resolve can be used in many different ways. I could arm wrestle someone and have a verbal argument with someone else using the same resolve, although probably not simultaenously
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
If the Spanish "marched in" they'd have declared war on us! Of course we would need to invade Spain if that happened. Which is why it won't happen, unless like with the Falklands other nations cease to believe we will defend our territory.
I'm afraid we do not have the capacity to invade Spain.
Which is why Gibraltar will have to settle with Spain themselves ultimately and become a sort of Monaco, that is maintained as a useful tax haven at the favour of the larger country. Insulting Spain, as they are doing at the moment, doesn't really get them there.
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
In my real world he just said we would stand by the people of Gibraltar with the same resolve as we did those of the Falklands. Possibly a clumsy analogy as it gives people with an agenda rope to sensationalise, but he didn't advocate war with Spain
Standing by Gibraltar in the same way that we stood by the Falklands involves armed conflict.
Has Rajoy ever even said in jest he would invade Gibraltar? No, so it is not going to happen but that does not mean the British government should not confirm its commitment to defend the Rock
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
In my real world he just said we would stand by the people of Gibraltar with the same resolve as we did those of the Falklands. Possibly a clumsy analogy as it gives people with an agenda rope to sensationalise, but he didn't advocate war with Spain
Well quite, but that will not stop the usual suspects from perverting what was actually said. Next we’ll be comparing military superiority and who’d win....
An interesting little story currently playing out in Holyrood is the SNP's proposal to cut APD - I guess the Scottish Greens will be against - it appears that SCON will back the SNP on this sensible proposal:
Is that an official constituency office? Doesn't sound as though it is since it was only opened for the election.
It is in fact the LD constituency office, still with big cheesy pics of the MSP on the front window. If that's allowed I'm at a loss why 'popular' Ruthy has missed an opportunity for self promotion.
It's the LD office, paid for by the local Lib Dems, with big cheesy pics of their candidate in the forthcoming MSP election. Hint: the photo was taken, as it says in the article, four months before the election.
An MSP office is different, it's paid for by Scottish taxpayers and the SNP government rolled out a party-neutral style guide for MSP office branding, to take effect after the 2016 elections.
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
In my real world he just said we would stand by the people of Gibraltar with the same resolve as we did those of the Falklands. Possibly a clumsy analogy as it gives people with an agenda rope to sensationalise, but he didn't advocate war with Spain
Well quite, but that will not stop the usual suspects from perverting what was actually said. Next we’ll be comparing military superiority and who’d win....
The UK has 10 000 more troops and 7 more submarines, though Spain has 1 aircraft carrier while the UK only has 2 in construction
An interesting little story currently playing out in Holyrood is the SNP's proposal to cut APD - I guess the Scottish Greens will be against - it appears that SCON will back the SNP on this sensible proposal:
Is that an official constituency office? Doesn't sound as though it is since it was only opened for the election.
It is in fact the LD constituency office, still with big cheesy pics of the MSP on the front window. If that's allowed I'm at a loss why 'popular' Ruthy has missed an opportunity for self promotion.
It's the LD office, paid for by the local Lib Dems, with big cheesy pics of their candidate in the forthcoming MSP election. Hint: the photo was taken, as it says in the article, four months before the election.
An MSP office is different, it's paid for by Scottish taxpayers and the SNP government rolled out a party-neutral style guide for MSP office branding, to take effect after the 2016 elections.
@BudG - interesting, thanks. I think it will need quite a lot to be wrong with the polls for Le Pen to come through, but I agree with @rcs1000 that the danger (to anyone green on Macron/Fillon) is Melenchon making it through with Le Pen.
So with that in mind, I've had a few quid on Le Pen and Melenchon as the final 2 @ 66-1 with Sky Bet.
Is that an official constituency office? Doesn't sound as though it is since it was only opened for the election.
It is in fact the LD constituency office, still with big cheesy pics of the MSP on the front window. If that's allowed I'm at a loss why 'popular' Ruthy has missed an opportunity for self promotion.
It's the LD office, paid for by the local Lib Dems, with big cheesy pics of their candidate in the forthcoming MSP election. Hint: the photo was taken, as it says in the article, four months before the election.
An MSP office is different, it's paid for by Scottish taxpayers and the SNP government rolled out a party-neutral style guide for MSP office branding, to take effect after the 2016 elections.
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
If the Spanish "marched in" they'd have declared war on us! Of course we would need to invade Spain if that happened. Which is why it won't happen, unless like with the Falklands other nations cease to believe we will defend our territory.
I'm afraid we do not have the capacity to invade Spain.
We would not invade Spain, just send British forces to defend Gibraltar as we did with the Falklands, although it is a highly unlikely scenario given Rajoy is hardly comparable with the Argentine Fascist junta in power then
That would involve getting troops there and landing them on territory held by an enemy with a professional army in possession of unbroken, land-based lines of communication. The Falklands it would not be.
But of course there will be no war. The madness is that Hard Brexiteers are prepared to discuss it as a scenario.
Well if we had too we would have to do a mini D Day on the beaches nearby and parachute troops into the vicinity and send the SAS onto the rock itself, perhaps by speedboats at night etc. UK submarines also have Tomahawk cruise missiles which could be launched at Spanish defences if needed
Following on from recent discussions of Robotisation "The Ghost in the Shell" is jolly well done - though for once I think the "whitewashing" complaints have merit.....
Is that an official constituency office? Doesn't sound as though it is since it was only opened for the election.
It is in fact the LD constituency office, still with big cheesy pics of the MSP on the front window. If that's allowed I'm at a loss why 'popular' Ruthy has missed an opportunity for self promotion.
It's the LD office, paid for by the local Lib Dems, with big cheesy pics of their candidate in the forthcoming MSP election. Hint: the photo was taken, as it says in the article, four months before the election.
An MSP office is different, it's paid for by Scottish taxpayers and the SNP government rolled out a party-neutral style guide for MSP office branding, to take effect after the 2016 elections.
An interesting little story currently playing out in Holyrood is the SNP's proposal to cut APD - I guess the Scottish Greens will be against - it appears that SCON will back the SNP on this sensible proposal:
Is that an official constituency office? Doesn't sound as though it is since it was only opened for the election.
It is in fact the LD constituency office, still with big cheesy pics of the MSP on the front window. If that's allowed I'm at a loss why 'popular' Ruthy has missed an opportunity for self promotion.
It's the LD office, paid for by the local Lib Dems, with big cheesy pics of their candidate in the forthcoming MSP election. Hint: the photo was taken, as it says in the article, four months before the election.
An MSP office is different, it's paid for by Scottish taxpayers and the SNP government rolled out a party-neutral style guide for MSP office branding, to take effect after the 2016 elections.
On topic... I disagree that the value bet is in this market is a lay of Le Pen. In fact, I would go as far as to say that her odds are the closest to being correct, in terms of looking at it from the perspective of where things will stand when the first round result is known in 3 weeks time.
If it were Le Pen v Macron and I had 10k green on Macron and no win on Le Pen, would I sacrifice 2k on Le Pen at odds of 5, to give myself a guaranteed win of 7.5-8k? Yes, like a shot and so would many others. That is why her price is likely to be lower than 5 if she makes it through. That doesn't mean that I think that price correctly reflects her chances of winning, because I would put her chances of winning against Macron at less than 10%.
On the other hand, if it were Le Pen v Fillon or Melenchon then her actual chances improve greatly, so her price would drop much lower than 5.
The current odds on this market are all over the place. Macron, if he gets through are likely to to be around 1.3 and as Mr Meeks suggests, his chances of doing so must be pretty likely, therefore he is exceptionally good value, from both a betting and a trading perspective at his current price of 1.68
Fillon is the lay of the market. I would agree with Mr Meeks assessment of a 12% chance of making it thorugh to the next round and, if he does, it is probably a 50/50 chance of whether he faces Macron or Le Pen. If he faces Macron, his odds are likely to be no better than 4.5. I don't subscribe to the view that if he makes it thorugh, his popularity will have improved greatly. His likeliest route to the final is in a tight 3 way finish for 2nd place with all 3 around 20%
Melenchon at 55 is also exceptional value at the moment. From polling around 11%, his performance in the last TV debate gave him momentum which has taken him to 16% in one poll, just one point behind Fillon. If he were able to put in a similar performance in tuesday's TV debate, it is quite probable that there will be at least one poll showing him level with or even ahead of Fillon by the end of this week. If so, what price Melenchon then?
Firstly the gap between Le Pen v Macron and Le Pen v Fillon is not actually that big, Odoxa last week had Le Pen on 41% against Macron for instance. Secondly I expect Fillon to outperform his polling as centre right parties have consistently outperformed their polling in all recent western elections and to clearly beat Melenchon for third in the end
You COULD be right. But it is a big mistake not to recognise that Fillon is not in the same category as the other centre right parties that outperformed their polling. I am sure they did not have candidates that 75% of the voting public said they should not even be standing.
Is that an official constituency office? Doesn't sound as though it is since it was only opened for the election.
It is in fact the LD constituency office, still with big cheesy pics of the MSP on the front window. If that's allowed I'm at a loss why 'popular' Ruthy has missed an opportunity for self promotion.
It's the LD office, paid for by the local Lib Dems, with big cheesy pics of their candidate in the forthcoming MSP election. Hint: the photo was taken, as it says in the article, four months before the election.
An MSP office is different, it's paid for by Scottish taxpayers and the SNP government rolled out a party-neutral style guide for MSP office branding, to take effect after the 2016 elections.
I think the EU has done us a favour in taking Gibraltar off the table during the negotiations. Had they not done so, Spain could have held up the negotiations as we approached the exit to WTO to extract concessions on the status of Gibraltar.
"After the United Kingdom leaves the Union, no agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without the agreement between the Kingdom of Spain and the United Kingdom."
So Gibraltar will leave the EU (it isn't currently part of the customs union anyway) and the border conditions and free trade agreement for Gibraltar will need the agreement of Spain (which makes practical sense). But it won't hold up the main agreement which it would have done without this statement.
It is taking leverage away from Spain, not us.
Exactly! Neither the rest of the EU nor the UK want Spain to hold the Brexit deal to hostage over Gibraltar. The UK government can hardly admit to being pleased to wash their hands of Gibraltar, of course...
Mercifully it would appear the EU, Spanish and U.K. Governments are behaving like grown ups while assorted retired politicians and the extremes of LEAVE and REMAIN get into a lather......
On topic... I disagree that the value bet is in this market is a lay of Le Pen. In fact, I would go as far as to say that her odds are the closest to being correct, in terms of looking at it from the perspective of where things will stand when the first round result is known in 3 weeks time.
If it were Le Pen v Macron and I had 10k green on Macron and no win on Le Pen, would I sacrifice 2k on Le Pen at odds of 5, to give myself a guaranteed win of 7.5-8k? Yes, like a shot and so would many others. That is why her price is likely to be lower than 5 if she makes it through. That doesn't mean that I think that price correctly reflects her chances of winning, because I would put her chances of winning against Macron at less than 10%.
On the other hand, if it were Le Pen v Fillon or Melenchon then her actual chances improve greatly, so her price would drop much lower than 5.
The current odds on this market are all over the place. Macron, if he gets through are likely to to be around 1.3 and as Mr Meeks suggests, his chances of doing so must be pretty likely, therefore he is exceptionally good value, from both a betting and a trading perspective at his current price of 1.68
Fillon is the lay of the market. I would agree with Mr Meeks assessment of a 12% chance of making it
Melenchon at 55 is also exceptional value at the moment. From polling around 11%, his performance in the last TV debate gave him momentum which has taken him to 16% in one poll, just one point behind Fillon. If he were able to put in a similar performance in tuesday's TV debate, it is quite probable that there will be at least one poll showing him level with or even ahead of Fillon by the end of this week. If so, what price Melenchon then?
Firstly the gap between Le Pen v Macron and Le Pen v Fillon is not actually that big, Odoxa last week had Le Pen on 41% against Macron for instance. Secondly I expect Fillon to outperform his polling as centre right parties have consistently outperformed their polling in all recent western elections and to clearly beat Melenchon for third in the end
You COULD be right. But it is a big mistake not to recognise that Fillon is not in the same category as the other centre right parties that outperformed their polling. I am sure they did not have candidates that 75% of the voting public said they should not even be standing.
Trump was hardly a 'clean' candidate was he and he is still the candidate of the main centre right party of France, I also think Hamon will do a bit better too in the end as the candidate of the Socialist Party but it will almost certainly be a Macron v Le Pen runoff
An interesting little story currently playing out in Holyrood is the SNP's proposal to cut APD - I guess the Scottish Greens will be against - it appears that SCON will back the SNP on this sensible proposal:
I've no idea what the SLAB position is on this proposal !!
The interesting question is whether it will be net additive for the U.K. - or simply transfer £1bn and 4,000 jobs from North East England?
A bit of both I'd have thought. If you lived in Carlisle and were looking at Emirates flights that were £100 cheaper from Glasgow than Newcastle or Manchester then you'll be taking business from England - but that's got to be pretty small numbers. More likely to take domestic business from the train or car. Possibly some European tourists might see a Highlands holiday as cheaper than a Lake District holiday, but there's not as much tax on the short haul flights.
Good to see Scotland using its powers over taxes though, some tax competition will help to find the optimum level at which the money raised best matches demand.
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
In my real world he just said we would stand by the people of Gibraltar with the same resolve as we did those of the Falklands. Possibly a clumsy analogy as it gives people with an agenda rope to sensationalise, but he didn't advocate war with Spain
Standing by Gibraltar in the same way that we stood by the Falklands involves armed conflict.
I see our local zoomer was wetting himself on the previous thread over an old story that Jersey might "declare itself independent of the UK".
One problem, Jersey is not part of the UK...
LOL, Carlotta is down to aping Scott, how low can a Tory go. Yoontastic.
Whatever happened to Scott? He disappeared a while ago and I didn't notice any particular reason.
No idea he just disappeared , perhaps banned. Strange as he was on regularly. He must have a twitter account , perhaps someone with an account could check he is OK.
They have only released that information because they have changed the codes to 12345678 which should be good for another 20 years, after which they will try 77777777
Britain has some useful cards in a generally poor hand. It is not playing them at all yet.
I'd be interested to hear what you think those are, especially give your stance on Brexit.
Your interest may be satiated if I get time to put together a thread header on the subject.
Some people seem only to be able to think of 'cards' in the sense of things we have to threaten or take away, rather than things we have to offer.
The delusion and hatred of foreigners and how we can do the dirty on them here illustrates just how far this country has fallen. Is it any wonder the UK is circling the drain.
Morning Malcolm. What do you think about Jim Sillars' view that Scotland should not leave the UK to rejoin the EU?
Malcolm think Sillars is a bitter old wanker.
No doubt true, but he has thus far been an indy-supporting bitter old wanker, so for that reason alone his current stance is interesting.
I remember Jim Sillars being elected Labour MP for Ayrshire South at the March 1970 by election. At that time he was known as 'the hammer of the Nats'.
I see our local zoomer was wetting himself on the previous thread over an old story that Jersey might "declare itself independent of the UK".
One problem, Jersey is not part of the UK...
LOL, Carlotta is down to aping Scott, how low can a Tory go. Yoontastic.
Whatever happened to Scott? He disappeared a while ago and I didn't notice any particular reason.
No idea he just disappeared , perhaps banned. Strange as he was on regularly. He must have a twitter account , perhaps someone with an account could check he is OK.
Not banned. His profile says he has been active today.
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
If the Spanish "marched in" they'd have declared war on us! Of course we would need to invade Spain if that happened. Which is why it won't happen, unless like with the Falklands other nations cease to believe we will defend our territory.
I'm afraid we do not have the capacity to invade Spain.
We would not invade Spain, just send British forces to defend Gibraltar as we did with the Falklands, although it is a highly unlikely scenario given Rajoy is hardly comparable with the Argentine Fascist junta in power then
That would involve getting troops there and landing them on territory held by an enemy with a professional army in possession of unbroken, land-based lines of communication. The Falklands it would not be.
But of course there will be no war. The madness is that Hard Brexiteers are prepared to discuss it as a scenario.
Well if we had too we would have to do a mini D Day on the beaches nearby and parachute troops into the vicinity and send the SAS onto the rock itself, perhaps by speedboats at night etc. UK submarines also have Tomahawk cruise missiles which could be launched at Spanish defences if needed
I see our local zoomer was wetting himself on the previous thread over an old story that Jersey might "declare itself independent of the UK".
One problem, Jersey is not part of the UK...
LOL, Carlotta is down to aping Scott, how low can a Tory go. Yoontastic.
Whatever happened to Scott? He disappeared a while ago and I didn't notice any particular reason.
No idea he just disappeared , perhaps banned. Strange as he was on regularly. He must have a twitter account , perhaps someone with an account could check he is OK.
I think he said he was going to the states for a few weeks.
I see our local zoomer was wetting himself on the previous thread over an old story that Jersey might "declare itself independent of the UK".
One problem, Jersey is not part of the UK...
LOL, Carlotta is down to aping Scott, how low can a Tory go. Yoontastic.
Whatever happened to Scott? He disappeared a while ago and I didn't notice any particular reason.
No idea he just disappeared , perhaps banned. Strange as he was on regularly. He must have a twitter account , perhaps someone with an account could check he is OK.
I think he said he was going to the states for a few weeks.
Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression and Acceptance?
An interesting little story currently playing out in Holyrood is the SNP's proposal to cut APD - I guess the Scottish Greens will be against - it appears that SCON will back the SNP on this sensible proposal:
Britain has some useful cards in a generally poor hand. It is not playing them at all yet.
I'd be interested to hear what you think those are, especially give your stance on Brexit.
Your interest may be satiated if I get time to put together a thread header on the subject.
Some people seem only to be able to think of 'cards' in the sense of things we have to threaten or take away, rather than things we have to offer.
The delusion and hatred of foreigners and how we can do the dirty on them here illustrates just how far this country has fallen. Is it any wonder the UK is circling the drain.
Morning Malcolm. What do you think about Jim Sillars' view that Scotland should not leave the UK to rejoin the EU?
Malcolm think Sillars is a bitter old wanker.
No doubt true, but he has thus far been an indy-supporting bitter old wanker, so for that reason alone his current stance is interesting.
I remember Jim Sillars being elected Labour MP for Ayrshire South at the March 1970 by election. At that time he was known as 'the hammer of the Nats'.
I thought that was Willie Ross? Though no doubt plenty would like to style themselves in that way.
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
In my real world he just said we would stand by the people of Gibraltar with the same resolve as we did those of the Falklands. Possibly a clumsy analogy as it gives people with an agenda rope to sensationalise, but he didn't advocate war with Spain
Standing by Gibraltar in the same way that we stood by the Falklands involves armed conflict.
Has Rajoy ever even said in jest he would invade Gibraltar? No, so it is not going to happen but that does not mean the British government should not confirm its commitment to defend the Rock
Well indeed, the comments seem to have been taken somewhat out of proportion. But of course, if Spain tried to actually invade Gibraltar then we'd fight back, but there's nothing to indicate that that scenario is close to being on the cards.
At least it would be easier to retake Gibraltar than to try and mount another Operation Black Buck!
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
In my real world he just said we would stand by the people of Gibraltar with the same resolve as we did those of the Falklands. Possibly a clumsy analogy as it gives people with an agenda rope to sensationalise, but he didn't advocate war with Spain
Well quite, but that will not stop the usual suspects from perverting what was actually said. Next we’ll be comparing military superiority and who’d win....
The UK has 10 000 more troops and 7 more submarines, though Spain has 1 aircraft carrier while the UK only has 2 in construction
LOL, they going to get there using Monarch and Thomson's charter flights
An interesting little story currently playing out in Holyrood is the SNP's proposal to cut APD - I guess the Scottish Greens will be against - it appears that SCON will back the SNP on this sensible proposal:
I've no idea what the SLAB position is on this proposal !!
The interesting question is whether it will be net additive for the U.K. - or simply transfer £1bn and 4,000 jobs from North East England?
Good to see Scotland using its powers over taxes though, some tax competition will help to find the optimum level at which the money raised best matches demand.
Absobloominglutely! And about time.....we should celebrate different approaches and not get hung up on where they come from.....that way we all learn.....you'd have thought "running the country better than Westminster" should be a key strategy in Nationalist plans.....
I don't really buy this argument about our security assistance being a huge asset that we can threaten to withold. I think we've always been an America's man on the inside, and many in the EU will be happy for us to butt out. If anything, it's May/Fallon/Hammond etc. who will want to continue to have a finger in the EU pie, especially in a potential European army, rather than the other way around.
Our card is our market. 30 million stodgy Brits used to a German car in the drive, holidays in the Costas, and brie and wine in the fridge. The current terms of trade are clearly very skewed in the EU's favour.
But the UK has always been opposed to an EU army?
No we haven't. The public was being softened to it, and hardly subtly. Shared aircraft carriers with the French being an example. I suspect there will still be an attempt in some quarters.
I don't really buy this argument about our security assistance being a huge asset that we can threaten to withold. I think we've always been an America's man on the inside, and many in the EU will be happy for us to butt out. If anything, it's May/Fallon/Hammond etc. who will want to continue to have a finger in the EU pie, especially in a potential European army, rather than the other way around.
Our card is our market. 30 million stodgy Brits used to a German car in the drive, holidays in the Costas, and brie and wine in the fridge. The current terms of trade are clearly very skewed in the EU's favour.
But the UK has always been opposed to an EU army?
No we haven't. The public was being softened to it, and hardly subtly. Shared aircraft carriers with the French being an example. I suspect there will still be an attempt in some quarters.
An interesting little story currently playing out in Holyrood is the SNP's proposal to cut APD - I guess the Scottish Greens will be against - it appears that SCON will back the SNP on this sensible proposal:
I've no idea what the SLAB position is on this proposal !!
The interesting question is whether it will be net additive for the U.K. - or simply transfer £1bn and 4,000 jobs from North East England?
Edinburgh passenger numbers are up 10% yoy and are continuing to grow steadily as open skies starts to kick in. I think some of this APD cut growth would be a transfer but most would be organic.
FWIW tourism is probably Scotland's asset with the most potential and this proposal would be a further boost.
If it were Le Pen v Macron and I had 10k green on Macron and no win on Le Pen, would I sacrifice 2k on Le Pen at odds of 5, to give myself a guaranteed win of 7.5-8k? Yes, like a shot and so would many others. That is why her price is likely to be lower than 5 if she makes it through. That doesn't mean that I think that price correctly reflects her chances of winning, because I would put her chances of winning against Macron at less than 10%.
On the other hand, if it were Le Pen v Fillon or Melenchon then her actual chances improve greatly, so her price would drop much lower than 5.
The current odds on this market are all over the place. Macron, if he gets through are likely to to be around 1.3 and as Mr Meeks suggests, his chances of doing so must be pretty likely, therefore he is exceptionally good value, from both a betting and a trading perspective at his current price of 1.68
Fillon is the lay of the market. I would agree with Mr Meeks assessment of a 12% chance of making it
Melenchon at 55 is also exceptional value at the moment. From polling around 11%, his performance in the last TV debate gave him momentum which has taken him to 16% in one poll, just one point behind Fillon. If he were able to put in a similar performance in tuesday's TV debate, it is quite probable that there will be at least one poll showing him level with or even ahead of Fillon by the end of this week. If so, what price Melenchon then?
Firstly the gap between Le Pen v Macron and Le Pen v Fillon is not actually that big, Odoxa last week had Le Pen on 41% against Macron for instance. Secondly I expect Fillon to outperform his polling as centre right parties have consistently outperformed their polling in all recent western elections and to clearly beat Melenchon for third in the end
You COULD be right. But it is a big mistake not to recognise that Fillon is not in the same category as the other centre right parties that outperformed their polling. I am sure they did not have candidates that 75% of the voting public said they should not even be standing.
Trump was hardly a 'clean' candidate was he and he is still the candidate of the main centre right party of France, I also think Hamon will do a bit better too in the end as the candidate of the Socialist Party but it will almost certainly be a Macron v Le Pen runoff
The differences between Trump and Fillon are that Trump's main opponent was hardly a "clean" candidate either and quite obviously 75% of the electorate were not of the opinion he should not be standing. Also, Trump never presented himself as the whiter than white candidate that Fillon made himself out to be when winning the Primary.
I was travelling, and have been lurking since my return. The Brexiteers wailing and gnashing of teeth over Gibraltar has been throughly entertaining
I have been waiting, for 3 days now, for one of them advocating crashing out of the EU as a 'message' to Spain to realise that would mean negotiating WTO terms.
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
If the Spanish "marched in" they'd have declared war on us! Of course we would need to invade Spain if that happened. Which is why it won't happen, unless like with the Falklands other nations cease to believe we will defend our territory.
I'm afraid we do not have the capacity to invade Spain.
We would not invade Spain, just send British forces to defend Gibraltar as we did with the Falklands, although it is a highly unlikely scenario given Rajoy is hardly comparable with the Argentine Fascist junta in power then
That would involve getting troops there and landing them on territory held by an enemy with a professional army in possession of unbroken, land-based lines of communication. The Falklands it would not be.
But of course there will be no war. The madness is that Hard Brexiteers are prepared to discuss it as a scenario.
SO, such petty objections. Clearly, we would first invade Morocco, establishing a long coastline of our own along with supporting long-range trebuchets. And on the naval front, we'd avail ourselves of Mr. Dancer's enormo-haddock.
The Morocco scenario would also enable us then to counter besiege Spain's enclaves in Melilla and Ceuta.
Britain has some useful cards in a generally poor hand. It is not playing them at all yet.
I'd be interested to hear what you think those are, especially give your stance on Brexit.
Your interest may be satiated if I get time to put together a thread header on the subject.
Some people seem only to be able to think of 'cards' in the sense of things we have to threaten or take away, rather than things we have to offer.
The delusion and hatred of foreigners and how we can do the dirty on them here illustrates just how far this country has fallen. Is it any wonder the UK is circling the drain.
Morning Malcolm. What do you think about Jim Sillars' view that Scotland should not leave the UK to rejoin the EU?
Malcolm think Sillars is a bitter old wanker.
No doubt true, but he has thus far been an indy-supporting bitter old wanker, so for that reason alone his current stance is interesting.
I remember Jim Sillars being elected Labour MP for Ayrshire South at the March 1970 by election. At that time he was known as 'the hammer of the Nats'.
I thought that was Willie Ross? Though no doubt plenty would like to style themselves in that way.
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
In my real world he just said we would stand by the people of Gibraltar with the same resolve as we did those of the Falklands. Possibly a clumsy analogy as it gives people with an agenda rope to sensationalise, but he didn't advocate war with Spain
Standing by Gibraltar in the same way that we stood by the Falklands involves armed conflict.
In the event of invasion yes. Are you proposing we should say we will just stand by if our territory Get a invaded?
I was travelling, and have been lurking since my return. The Brexiteers wailing and gnashing of teeth over Gibraltar has been throughly entertaining
I have been waiting, for 3 days now, for one of them advocating crashing out of the EU as a 'message' to Spain to realise that would mean negotiating WTO terms.
Where other countries have a veto.
Like Argentina.
Oh, fu...
C'mon Scott with Plato banned and you away we are bereft of twitter updates
I was travelling, and have been lurking since my return. The Brexiteers wailing and gnashing of teeth over Gibraltar has been throughly entertaining
I have been waiting, for 3 days now, for one of them advocating crashing out of the EU as a 'message' to Spain to realise that would mean negotiating WTO terms.
Where other countries have a veto.
Like Argentina.
Oh, fu...
C'mon Scott with Plato banned and you away we are bereft of twitter updates
williamglenn did his best, but was a poor substitute for the original
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
In my real world he just said we would stand by the people of Gibraltar with the same resolve as we did those of the Falklands. Possibly a clumsy analogy as it gives people with an agenda rope to sensationalise, but he didn't advocate war with Spain
Standing by Gibraltar in the same way that we stood by the Falklands involves armed conflict.
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
In my real world he just said we would stand by the people of Gibraltar with the same resolve as we did those of the Falklands. Possibly a clumsy analogy as it gives people with an agenda rope to sensationalise, but he didn't advocate war with Spain
Standing by Gibraltar in the same way that we stood by the Falklands involves armed conflict.
In the event of invasion yes. Are you proposing we should say we will just stand by if our territory Get a invaded?
better to go over and get our arses kicked for sure
An interesting little story currently playing out in Holyrood is the SNP's proposal to cut APD - I guess the Scottish Greens will be against - it appears that SCON will back the SNP on this sensible proposal:
I've no idea what the SLAB position is on this proposal !!
The interesting question is whether it will be net additive for the U.K. - or simply transfer £1bn and 4,000 jobs from North East England?
Edinburgh passenger numbers are up 10% yoy and are continuing to grow steadily as open skies starts to kick in. I think some of this APD cut growth would be a transfer but most would be organic.
FWIW tourism is probably Scotland's asset with the most potential and this proposal would be a further boost.
I suspect we'll see a combination - some organic growth and some cannibalisation of North England business - but that's what happens when you have competition - pity the North East horlicksed up plans for them to have their own Mayor....
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
In my real world he just said we would stand by the people of Gibraltar with the same resolve as we did those of the Falklands. Possibly a clumsy analogy as it gives people with an agenda rope to sensationalise, but he didn't advocate war with Spain
Standing by Gibraltar in the same way that we stood by the Falklands involves armed conflict.
Spain has a land border with Gibraltar. In order to take it back if the Spanish marched in we would lieralky have to invade Spain! What the hell is going on in Hard Brexitland? There does seem to be a genuine bloodlust-driven madness taking over. In the real world, of course, all that's happened is that the Spanish have a veto on whether any Brexit deal would apply to Gibraltar.
In my real world he just said we would stand by the people of Gibraltar with the same resolve as we did those of the Falklands. Possibly a clumsy analogy as it gives people with an agenda rope to sensationalise, but he didn't advocate war with Spain
Well quite, but that will not stop the usual suspects from perverting what was actually said. Next we’ll be comparing military superiority and who’d win....
The UK has 10 000 more troops and 7 more submarines, though Spain has 1 aircraft carrier while the UK only has 2 in construction
LOL, they going to get there using Monarch and Thomson's charter flights
An interesting little story currently playing out in Holyrood is the SNP's proposal to cut APD - I guess the Scottish Greens will be against - it appears that SCON will back the SNP on this sensible proposal:
An interesting little story currently playing out in Holyrood is the SNP's proposal to cut APD - I guess the Scottish Greens will be against - it appears that SCON will back the SNP on this sensible proposal:
I've no idea what the SLAB position is on this proposal !!
The interesting question is whether it will be net additive for the U.K. - or simply transfer £1bn and 4,000 jobs from North East England?
Edinburgh passenger numbers are up 10% yoy and are continuing to grow steadily as open skies starts to kick in. I think some of this APD cut growth would be a transfer but most would be organic.
FWIW tourism is probably Scotland's asset with the most potential and this proposal would be a further boost.
What the Scottish tourism sector needs is for an American real estate entrepreneur to build some yuge golf courses and wind farm observation sites.
If it were Le Pen v Macron and I had 10k green on Macron and no win on Le Pen, would I sacrifice 2k on Le Pen at odds of 5, to give myself a guaranteed win of 7.5-8k? Yes, like a shot and so would many others. That is why her price is likely to be lower than 5 if she makes it through. That doesn't mean that I think that price correctly reflects her chances of winning, because I would put her chances of winning against Macron at less than 10%.
On the other hand, if it were Le Pen v Fillon or Melenchon then her actual chances improve greatly, so her price would drop much lower than 5.
The current odds on this market are all over the place. Macron, if he gets through are likely to to be around 1.3 and as Mr Meeks suggests, his chances of doing so must be pretty likely, therefore he is exceptionally good value, from both a betting and a trading perspective at his current price of 1.68
Fillon is the lay of the market. I would agree with Mr Meeks assessment of a 12% chance of making it
Melenchon at 55 is also exceptional value at the moment. From polling around 11%, his performance in the last TV debate gave him momentum which has taken him to 16% in one poll, just one point behind Fillon. If he were able to put in a similar performance in tuesday's TV debate, it is quite probable that there will be at least one poll showing him level with or even ahead of Fillon by the end of this week. If so, what price Melenchon then?
for third in the end
You COULD be right. But it is a big mistake not to recognise that Fillon is not in the same category as the other centre right parties that outperformed their polling. I am sure they did not have candidates that 75% of the voting public said they should not even be standing.
Trump was hardly a 'clean' candidate was he and he is still the candidate of the main centre right party of France, I also think Hamon will do a bit better too in the end as the candidate of the Socialist Party but it will almost certainly be a Macron v Le Pen runoff
The differences between Trump and Fillon are that Trump's main opponent was hardly a "clean" candidate either and quite obviously 75% of the electorate were not of the opinion he should not be standing. Also, Trump never presented himself as the whiter than white candidate that Fillon made himself out to be when winning the Primary.
Wait until the runoff and what the Russians are keeping on Macron but as I said I am not saying Fillon will make the runoff but all recent elections show centre right voters are more likely to vote than the polls suggest and Fillon's biggest support comes from pensioners and we all know they turnout to vote at a higher rate than the young
An interesting little story currently playing out in Holyrood is the SNP's proposal to cut APD - I guess the Scottish Greens will be against - it appears that SCON will back the SNP on this sensible proposal:
I've no idea what the SLAB position is on this proposal !!
The interesting question is whether it will be net additive for the U.K. - or simply transfer £1bn and 4,000 jobs from North East England?
Edinburgh passenger numbers are up 10% yoy and are continuing to grow steadily as open skies starts to kick in. I think some of this APD cut growth would be a transfer but most would be organic.
FWIW tourism is probably Scotland's asset with the most potential and this proposal would be a further boost.
What the Scottish tourism sector needs is for an American real estate entrepreneur to build some yuge golf courses and wind farm observation sites.
We let them build the golf courses first - before we build the wind farms !!
I think at one point Trump was thinking of buying Pretswick - lets go for Trump International Prestwick ("TIP") as the working name.
It appalls, but does not surprise that our government is yet to fill 20 Senior Policy Advisor jobs 9 months after the vote, and with negotiations imminent. Its almost as if there is no plan.
A G7 is a relatively low level role in any headquarters job in the civil service.
And 207 of the RAF's are gliders/microlights (cf. the Grob list). Another 189 are trainers, so that is 396 the Spanish are unlikely to worry about. The Spanish have 143 trainers.
He's just stating the beedin obvious. Of course if part of the UK was invaded by another country we would have to go to war to defend it.
Thankfully that's not going to happen.
No, but it's given the more excitable believers on both sides of the debate something to get upset about......does Michael Howard hold shares in any Blood Pressure Medication firms by chance?
No, but it's given the more excitable believers on both sides of the debate something to get upset about......does Michael Howard hold shares in any Blood Pressure Medication firms by chance?
It's just an entertaining distraction from the news that Spain has explicitly ruled out vetoing Scottish accession to the EU.
He's just stating the beedin obvious. Of course if part of the UK was invaded by another country we would have to go to war to defend it.
Apparently defending your territory and citizens is shocking to some. Not Tories or Kippers obviously, I don't suppose there is a single supporter of those parties who consider it shocking, only some Labour supporters and the so-called Liberal Democrats.
And 207 of the RAF's are gliders/microlights (cf. the Grob list). Another 189 are trainers, so that is 396 the Spanish are unlikely to worry about. The Spanish have 143 trainers.
The Spanish also have no significant foreign deployments, so it is more even especially considering shorter flight times etc. UK based planes would have to fly a long way over hostile territory to engage.
It's not going to happen though, and talk of it just makes the Brexiteers look even more Blimpish than they really are.
No, but it's given the more excitable believers on both sides of the debate something to get upset about......does Michael Howard hold shares in any Blood Pressure Medication firms by chance?
It's just an entertaining distraction from the news that Spain has explicitly ruled out vetoing Scottish accession to the EU.
No, but it's given the more excitable believers on both sides of the debate something to get upset about......does Michael Howard hold shares in any Blood Pressure Medication firms by chance?
It's just an entertaining distraction from the news that Spain has explicitly ruled out vetoing Scottish accession to the EU.
And 207 of the RAF's are gliders/microlights (cf. the Grob list). Another 189 are trainers, so that is 396 the Spanish are unlikely to worry about. The Spanish have 143 trainers.
The Spanish also have no significant foreign deployments, so it is more even especially considering shorter flight times etc. UK based planes would have to fly a long way over hostile territory to engage.
It's not going to happen though, and talk of it just makes the Brexiteers look even more Blimpish than they really are.
To be fair to us Brexiteers, talk of invasion was started by Southam.. last time I checked he was in the Remain camp
No, but it's given the more excitable believers on both sides of the debate something to get upset about......does Michael Howard hold shares in any Blood Pressure Medication firms by chance?
It's just an entertaining distraction from the news that Spain has explicitly ruled out vetoing Scottish accession to the EU.
That wasn't "news" - what was "ruled out" before, and remains the case- despite SNP "legal advice" (which didn't exist) - is that Scotland would have to apply as a new member state once it was independent - and there wasn't some "magic door" they could slip through out of the UK and straight into the EU. So no news, sorry. But perhaps you can tell us what the SNP EU policy is? The Nats have gone awfully quiet...
And 207 of the RAF's are gliders/microlights (cf. the Grob list). Another 189 are trainers, so that is 396 the Spanish are unlikely to worry about. The Spanish have 143 trainers.
And how many of those Grobs are actually serviceable? They all got grounded for maintainance a couple of years back, it was taking far too long to get the air cadets back in the air.
And 207 of the RAF's are gliders/microlights (cf. the Grob list). Another 189 are trainers, so that is 396 the Spanish are unlikely to worry about. The Spanish have 143 trainers.
The only ones really worth worrying about are the Typhoons - about 140 to 60.
No, but it's given the more excitable believers on both sides of the debate something to get upset about......does Michael Howard hold shares in any Blood Pressure Medication firms by chance?
It's just an entertaining distraction from the news that Spain has explicitly ruled out vetoing Scottish accession to the EU.
There was never a veto and we were always at war with Eastasia. Or was it Spain..?
On topic (and away from this nonsense about Gibraltar):
The story of the French Presidential election is the failure of the French centre-right to take an office that looked to have been handed to them on a plate. The desperate Hollande had dragged the French Left down and with no viable candidate from that side all the French centre-right needed to do was to find someone with a pulse and a functioning brain cell who would finish first (or even second) in the first round and then trounce Marine Le Pen in the second round.
Instead they chose Francois Fillon and when he fell into a quagmire of his own ineptitude and stupidity the French centre-right didn't have the nous to kick him out in favour of Juppe who, let's face it, has all the charisma of a stick, but would still have won.
So they are stuck with this compromised loser and only have themselves to blame. Kudos to Macron who has taken his chance, re-invented himself and thanks to Britian's LEAVE vote and the election of Trump, looks like a sensible centrist candidate who can appeal to everyone in these uncertain times.
He's a moderate pro-European - is he what France really needs ? The journalist Right in Britain has always argued that France heads a healthy dose of Thatcherism - maybe but it's up to the French and they seem to be moving toward Macron. The three Ms - Macron, Merkel and May - something to consider.
And 207 of the RAF's are gliders/microlights (cf. the Grob list). Another 189 are trainers, so that is 396 the Spanish are unlikely to worry about. The Spanish have 143 trainers.
The Spanish also have no significant foreign deployments, so it is more even especially considering shorter flight times etc. UK based planes would have to fly a long way over hostile territory to engage.
It's not going to happen though, and talk of it just makes the Brexiteers look even more Blimpish than they really are.
Don't forget the UK also has 10,000 more troops than Spain plus the SAS, plus 7 more submarines and Spain will almost certainly not invade Gibraltar but if it did the UK would of course defend it
So we just make it less safe for tens of millions of British citizens to live, work and travel in Europe?
You are just repeating in what you hope are more emotive terms an argument which has already been debunked. But anyway the most likely outcome is: we make it as safe as it is now for tens of millions of British citizens to live, work and travel in Europe, and Europe makes it safe for tens of millions of European citizens to live, work and travel in Britain.
When I consider the word "reciprocity" I ask myself whether there is a four-syllable upper bound on concepts which remainers are able to process.
The UK has a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, skilled diplomats, capable armed forces, effective intelligence services, the best sigint agency in the world, and considerable expertise on fighting terrorism and organised crime. We are a member of five eyes. We make a considerable contribution to European security via co-operation on policing, intelligence, defence and foreign policy. We have a world-class air force, logistics and naval resources. We help secure the Med, and both Gibraltar and Cyprus are key. And we participate in the European Arrest Warrant, Europol, Eurojust and the Schengen databases.
The UK and EU deciding not to comprehensively cooperate in security matters would not be preferable for either the UK or the EU.
It would hurt the EU far more. That makes it a card.
We know the EU are worried about it because of the level of protestation they made on the A50 letter, despite it being gently mentioned only a handful of times, just as we know they are also worried about the UK becoming an offshore Singapore, as they put a comprehensive anti-dumping clause in their draft European Council negotiating guidelines as well.
Re Gibraltar - hasn't US said that they will not allow Spain to influence Gibraltar as it services both US and UK nuclear subs
They might restock on eggs and bog roll there is but is not servicing by any stretch of the imagination. The US boomers are almost always NOFORN. The maintenance and engineering is only done at Kings Bay, GA.
Not true. The Z-Docks are the main repair port in the Med for US and UK Nuclear Powered Subs. Although Spain is in NATO it will not allow Nuclear subs to enter its ports. There are extensive repair facilities in Gibraltar and the US has always said it would not be in favour of Gibraltar returning to Spain for this reason.
And 207 of the RAF's are gliders/microlights (cf. the Grob list). Another 189 are trainers, so that is 396 the Spanish are unlikely to worry about. The Spanish have 143 trainers.
The Spanish also have no significant foreign deployments, so it is more even especially considering shorter flight times etc. UK based planes would have to fly a long way over hostile territory to engage.
It's not going to happen though, and talk of it just makes the Brexiteers look even more Blimpish than they really are.
The UK would of course immediately cancel all other foreign entaglements in the event of a Spanish invasion and those recalled pilots would have combat experience, unlike most of the Spanish
Comments
https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/848473797808316417
http://www.edinburghairport.com/about-us/media-centre/press-releases/slashing-air-passenger-duty-will-add-1bn-to-scottish-economy-and-create-4000-jobs
I've no idea what the SLAB position is on this proposal !!
Seriously though, I wish they'd do the same down here, but I am a bit biased
So with that in mind, I've had a few quid on Le Pen and Melenchon as the final 2 @ 66-1 with Sky Bet.
Good to see Scotland using its powers over taxes though, some tax competition will help to find the optimum level at which the money raised best matches demand.
https://gist.github.com/djaiss/4033452
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPdk3JuQGxOCMlZLLt4drhw
Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance and Emigration?
At least it would be easier to retake Gibraltar than to try and mount another Operation Black Buck!
FWIW tourism is probably Scotland's asset with the most potential and this proposal would be a further boost.
http://labourlist.org/2016/05/gordon-brown-tells-voters-show-churchillian-spirit-and-vote-to-stay-in-the-eu/
I is back...
I was travelling, and have been lurking since my return. The Brexiteers wailing and gnashing of teeth over Gibraltar has been throughly entertaining
I have been waiting, for 3 days now, for one of them advocating crashing out of the EU as a 'message' to Spain to realise that would mean negotiating WTO terms.
Where other countries have a veto.
Like Argentina.
Oh, fu...
The Morocco scenario would also enable us then to counter besiege Spain's enclaves in Melilla and Ceuta.
http://www.espnfcasia.com/english-league-two/26/video/3088640/leyton-orients-emotional-arsenal-appeal
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_United_Kingdom_military_aircraft
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Air_Force
I think at one point Trump was thinking of buying Pretswick - lets go for Trump International Prestwick ("TIP") as the working name.
He's just stating the beedin obvious. Of course if part of the UK was invaded by another country we would have to go to war to defend it.
Thankfully that's not going to happen.
Thankfully that's not going to happen.
No, but it's given the more excitable believers on both sides of the debate something to get upset about......does Michael Howard hold shares in any Blood Pressure Medication firms by chance?
Thankfully that's not going to happen.
Reminds me of a slogan I heard somewhere about the Armalite in one hand and the ballot box in the other.
I hope the sane Brexiteers can keep their jingoist swivel-eyed loons in order ...
It's not going to happen though, and talk of it just makes the Brexiteers look even more Blimpish than they really are.
http://www.scottishconservatives.com/2017/04/sturgeon-would-struggle-to-pass-the-salt-never-mind-pass-a-bill/
Or was it Spain..?
On topic (and away from this nonsense about Gibraltar):
The story of the French Presidential election is the failure of the French centre-right to take an office that looked to have been handed to them on a plate. The desperate Hollande had dragged the French Left down and with no viable candidate from that side all the French centre-right needed to do was to find someone with a pulse and a functioning brain cell who would finish first (or even second) in the first round and then trounce Marine Le Pen in the second round.
Instead they chose Francois Fillon and when he fell into a quagmire of his own ineptitude and stupidity the French centre-right didn't have the nous to kick him out in favour of Juppe who, let's face it, has all the charisma of a stick, but would still have won.
So they are stuck with this compromised loser and only have themselves to blame. Kudos to Macron who has taken his chance, re-invented himself and thanks to Britian's LEAVE vote and the election of Trump, looks like a sensible centrist candidate who can appeal to everyone in these uncertain times.
He's a moderate pro-European - is he what France really needs ? The journalist Right in Britain has always argued that France heads a healthy dose of Thatcherism - maybe but it's up to the French and they seem to be moving toward Macron. The three Ms - Macron, Merkel and May - something to consider.