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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With three weeks to go the value French President bet is that

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    NEW THREAD

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    HYUFD said:
    And 207 of the RAF's are gliders/microlights (cf. the Grob list). Another 189 are trainers, so that is 396 the Spanish are unlikely to worry about. The Spanish have 143 trainers.
    Bev, you forgot how many are paper ones
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    And 207 of the RAF's are gliders/microlights (cf. the Grob list). Another 189 are trainers, so that is 396 the Spanish are unlikely to worry about. The Spanish have 143 trainers.
    The Spanish also have no significant foreign deployments, so it is more even especially considering shorter flight times etc. UK based planes would have to fly a long way over hostile territory to engage.

    It's not going to happen though, and talk of it just makes the Brexiteers look even more Blimpish than they really are.
    The UK would of course immediately cancel all other foreign entaglements in the event of a Spanish invasion and those recalled pilots would have combat experience, unlike most of the Spanish
    You really are barking mad
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    And 207 of the RAF's are gliders/microlights (cf. the Grob list). Another 189 are trainers, so that is 396 the Spanish are unlikely to worry about. The Spanish have 143 trainers.
    The Spanish also have no significant foreign deployments, so it is more even especially considering shorter flight times etc. UK based planes would have to fly a long way over hostile territory to engage.

    It's not going to happen though, and talk of it just makes the Brexiteers look even more Blimpish than they really are.
    Don't forget the UK also has 10,000 more troops than Spain plus the SAS, plus 7 more submarines and Spain will almost certainly not invade Gibraltar but if it did the UK would of course defend it
    Next you will be telling us their oranges , tomatoes and assorted salads would be useless against our Trident subs
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Spain has some amazing new moterways for their tanks to roll down.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,518
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    I don't really buy this argument about our security assistance being a huge asset that we can threaten to withold. I think we've always been an America's man on the inside, and many in the EU will be happy for us to butt out. If anything, it's May/Fallon/Hammond etc. who will want to continue to have a finger in the EU pie, especially in a potential European army, rather than the other way around.

    Our card is our market. 30 million stodgy Brits used to a German car in the drive, holidays in the Costas, and brie and wine in the fridge. The current terms of trade are clearly very skewed in the EU's favour.

    But the UK has always been opposed to an EU army?
    No we haven't. The public was being softened to it, and hardly subtly. Shared aircraft carriers with the French being an example. I suspect there will still be an attempt in some quarters.
    Hm, I remain unconvinced.
    Not convinced by two powers SHARING aircraft carriers? Since when is that a thing? It's the same accepting US money to pay for GCHQ to be built so it can to do their deniable snooping. Not the actions of an independent nation. The apparatus for 'one world' has been taking shape for years - Brexit and Trump represent (to me) some very welcome and long overdue push back.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,130
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    On topic (and away from this nonsense about Gibraltar):

    The story of the French Presidential election is the failure of the French centre-right to take an office that looked to have been handed to them on a plate. The desperate Hollande had dragged the French Left down and with no viable candidate from that side all the French centre-right needed to do was to find someone with a pulse and a functioning brain cell who would finish first (or even second) in the first round and then trounce Marine Le Pen in the second round.

    Instead they chose Francois Fillon and when he fell into a quagmire of his own ineptitude and stupidity the French centre-right didn't have the nous to kick him out in favour of Juppe who, let's face it, has all the charisma of a stick, but would still have won.

    So they are stuck with this compromised loser and only have themselves to blame. Kudos to Macron who has taken his chance, re-invented himself and thanks to Britian's LEAVE vote and the election of Trump, looks like a sensible centrist candidate who can appeal to everyone in these uncertain times.

    He's a moderate pro-European - is he what France really needs ? The journalist Right in Britain has always argued that France heads a healthy dose of Thatcherism - maybe but it's up to the French and they seem to be moving toward Macron. The three Ms - Macron, Merkel and May - something to consider.

    He doesn't appeal to the 40% of French voters who now say they will vote for Le Pen in the runoff
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    I see our local zoomer was wetting himself on the previous thread over an old story that Jersey might "declare itself independent of the UK".

    One problem, Jersey is not part of the UK...

    LOL, Carlotta is down to aping Scott, how low can a Tory go. Yoontastic.
    Whatever happened to Scott? He disappeared a while ago and I didn't notice any particular reason.
    Last active 11:51AM... he's around.
    Ah Okay. I hadn't noticed any posts from him lately.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    C'mon Scott with Plato banned and you away we are bereft of twitter updates

    First rule of Showbiz; always leave them wanting more...
    I am somewhat stunned to find myself saying this but welcome back Scott. :)
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017

    chestnut said:

    As I pointed out, anyone wanting a role can still apply today:

    https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi?jcode=1533373

    It appalls, but does not surprise that our government is yet to fill 20 Senior Policy Advisor jobs 9 months after the vote, and with negotiations imminent. Its almost as if there is no plan.

    A G7 is a relatively low level role in any headquarters job in the civil service.

    The job description is not of low level posts.
    It's a Grade 7 job, Dr Fox.

    It isn't senior civil service by any stretch of the imagination and is no higher than intermediate ranking in a HQ/Policy setting and grade distribution.

    In field delivery it would be higher up the distribution and be someone managing a unit of 500-600 staff.
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