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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With three weeks to go the value French President bet is that Marine Le Pen won’t do it
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/01/revealed-cabinet-plotted-exploit-eus-defence-fears/
One problem, Jersey is not part of the UK...
Le me start by dismiss any idea that the Russians have some (genuine) dirt on Macron and are just waiting for the run-off to release it. That simply makes no sense: from a Russian point of view, your preferred candidate might be Marine Le Pen, but Francois Fillon, who has called repeatedly for better links with Russia, would be a clear number two. So, you might want a Le Pen-Melanchon second round (because Le Pen would likely win it), or a Le Pen-Fillon (as both candidates would look kindly on Russia), but Le Pen-Macron still carries with it a very high chance that a pro-EU (and therefore anti-Russian) candidate gets in.
But, I do think Mr Meeks dismisses Melanchon too easily. There's a lot of Hamon support that could leak his way, especially if Hamon voters see Melanchon as the only way of getting a true left winger in the final two. Imagine if Macron's vote is actually overstated by a couple of percent (quite possible given he has no ground game, evaluating the support of insurgent candidates is hard, and it is always possible Macron has a late dip). Could we end up with Macron, Melanchon and Fillon all just sub 20%? Absolutely. Is it likely? No. But I reckon that there's probably a 7.5-12.5% chance that Melanchon slips by Macron.
That is the route to an MLP Presidency - Melanchon slipping through to face MLP in the second round. It's not likely, but it's by no means an impossibility.
What is a zoomer?
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-article-50-negotiations-security-threat-latest-leave-eu-european-union-a7659466.html?amp
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/01/brexit-negotiations-theresa-may-rawnsley
"On my assessment of the probabilities, if she finds herself facing Emmanuel Macron in the last two, her chances have actually got worse."
If you win a semi final your price never lengthens regardless of your opponent in the final.
Are you seriously suggesting some Leavers hope that UK citizens security is threatened?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/spain-drops-plan-to-impose-veto-if-scotland-tries-to-join-eu
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/01/judge-rejects-trump-defense-claim-incited-violence-protesters
I can't really see the case against Trump succeeding (although the one against his supporters might), but if it did, even if he just got a slap on the wrist, I suspect that some of the hardcore breitbart types would start to campaign to rein in the "biased" judiciary. If the idea that Trump is a good guy being unfairly reined in by the checks and balances in the US system, we could see future populist campaigns aimed at eroding them.
A Le Pen vs Macron contest is practically unwinnable for her. Alastair gives her a 5% shot in that line-up. I think that's generous. A bland but seemingly capable centrist is the perfect candidate to take on the radical right (or the radical left, for that matter), as he or she would be extremely transfer-friendly.
But to get to that stage, Macron has to finish in the top two, which isn't guaranteed. The first round remains a very split field with no candidate consistently taking more than a quarter of the vote. It's possible that 20-21% might be enough to scrape through, though it'll probably be slightly higher. In 2002, Jospin 'should' have won in that he outpolled all other candidates in head-to-heads but he failed to secure enough positive support in the first round to make it through, and therein lies the risk for Macron. Against the other candidates, Le Pen stands a better chance.
I think the error in your logic is assuming that advancing from the semi-final to the final reduces the number of opponents; it doesn't necessarily: the opponents she is fighting are the anti-FN voters.
I cannot see Fillon recovering now, but Melenchon is an interesting dark horse. Any situation where he makes the final means a surge of support for him.
I cannot see Macron blowing it though. He looks a president in waiting.
I pretty much agree. The only potential fly in the ointment is that certainty to vote figures (last I saw) were just under 50% for Macron and over 70% for Le Pen and Fillon. Could point to a surprise, although that was prior to Fillon's vote share polling falling quite a bit.
“España está más cerca del ‘Brexit’ blando”
http://elpais.com/politica/2017/04/01/actualidad/1491073769_182345.html
I think that his reforms will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary in the New Labour style, but with the important difference of fiscal sanity.
I suspect indyScotland would prefer the EEA though. Much Scottish support for Remain comes from seeing the EU as a Social Democrat counterweight to a Tory English Westminster, rather than true enthusiasm. Once free of Westminster, that fades as a motivator. Scotland will be more like Scandanavia than England, and perhaps always has been.
Not sure about the Scandinavian bit. I met some Seedes while I was in Hong Kong and they were very surprised to hear of the Scottish idea of being closer to Scandinavia than England. It was not something many Scandinavians see, they said; though they did say that the Norwegians feel a strong link with the British generally as a result of WW2.
is an anagram of Cameron
flouncy bouncy wibbly wobbly France
There is no automatic inheritance of any deal for a place outside of the UK or EU (Gibraltar); future access on the back of an existing deal needs joint authorisation from the UK and EU, plus whichever bit of the EU feels like it; the broad deal is sequenced with exit obligations and debts settled firstly. Furthermore, the overall EU will stand aside in a bi-lateral issue.
The content of the EU 'claim' on our obligations shows their state of thinking and would undoubtedly inform any similar discussion relating to independence movements within the UK or elsewhere in the EU.
None of us really know, but based on public comment I suspect the UK is in the credit balance.
More fundamentally, if the EU takes an aggressive/hostile approach to a negotiation with the UK, even though this is expected to damage us economically, then they have demonstrated that they are not good partners with us. That will inevitably colour the extent to which we want to partner with them in other areas.
Maybe if the SNP are serious about independence they should demonstrate that they can maximise such autonomy as they already have to good effect. That they have failed to do so is one of the many reasons to think Sturgeon's recent posturing is just so much anti-English hot air, a la George Canning's anti-French speeches of the 1820s after he had decided not to interevene to help the Spanish.
1 million bitter and twisted brits holding the balance of power, or hand the keys to the mafioso murder band in SF.
either way it would trash the place.
While the North has much less land it adds 40% to the population and the politcal structures of the south can no longer work as they did.
About €70bn in added euro debt.
The ongoing deficit is around €12bn p.a.
if melenchon doesnt make the second round I dont think it's a slam dunk that all his leftie votes will go left. From my joyful times working with the french trade unions some of them see the FN as better for the little people than yet another enarque pretending theyve had it tough.
The death of the French Socialist party is a salutary lesson for Labour here. It shows how the tectonic plates of politics can move.
This "Le Fucked" scenario.
I can see, for instance, a scenario where the increased risk to our operatives (through sharing information with leaky organisations in Europe) is greater than the value we receive.
We are prepared to partner with them at the moment as part of a broader relationship, but if the balance of that broader relationship shifts perhaps it's not a sacrifice we are prepared to make.
To what extent does formally leaving Europol et al and returning to purely a NATO relationship, and the bilateral relationship with France, unilaterally increase our security threat?
I agree with Charles: we are on the credit side.
Let's say, we're in security credit by 70-30 (rather than assuming a 50-50 balance) - if we withdraw we lose 30% "extra" security value, but the EU loses 70%.
So, although you could make a case we'd lose *something* it isn't equitable, as you imply it is.
Still the voters appeared to have learned from the terrorists that the best way to unsettle the elite is through surprise. If obedient Brits support Brexit, Donald Trump wins in the US on an anti-immigrant/free trade platform then surely it's only appropriate for the French to elect an investment banker. We can all sleep easy in our beds at the thought of enough bewildered faces to convene a special Davos summit.
I don't want any surprises.
you routinely tell me your FiL condems the UK govt and Churchill for the Coventry bombing
where the govt put protection of Ultra before the lives of its citizens. Ultra wasnt even working properly in 1940.
NI is littered with reports of security forces letting people die rather than warn them, it's the same in the Cold war and the war against islamic terrorism.
So while you try to convince us of the moral stance, imo HMG has crossed that bridge several times and will continue to do so without any qualms.
By the photos, it doesn't look like a BNP friendly pub.
Whoever was responsible, it'll be included in the Brexit hate crime figures quoted by the Contimentalists.
The reaction will make the Brexit and Trump wailing look irrelevant. The poor darlings simply won't cope.
Stop being silly.
you cannot have a fully devolved government in Northern Ireland as long as the choice is between the Mob and a theocracy. Neither will work.
He's likely to win, that's obvious, backing odds on weeks before the election is crazy.
When I consider the word "reciprocity" I ask myself whether there is a four-syllable upper bound on concepts which remainers are able to process.
Lots of hot air coming but it is all blowing north.
you seem to ignore the fact that millions of brits routinely go to places like Egypt, Morrocco, Turkey where there is an ongoing level of violence. It's a choice, nobody makes you go. We travel to lots of dangerous places irrespective of what HMG thinks.