politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Politics in a democratic one party state
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Politics in a democratic one party state
0
This discussion has been closed.
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Politics in a democratic one party state
Comments
Unlike UKIP and Labour, who seem to have decided to go in the opposite direction.
I am not sure how long UKIP can continue. They have lost Banks as a donor, they have now lost their Short money, and it looks as though they might have to pay money back to the EU, to Banks, and maybe even be fined by the Electoral Commission. Unless they find some cash, they are going to go under.
Even as an LD I see it being a long haul back, though with politics as volatile as it is, 50 seats is not inconceivable in 2020.
But I'm not convinced the UK is in that position. the level of dominance 43% ish in the poles is not that big, and the opposition weakness is at least partly attributed to leaders who may not be there that long.
In terms of the big pitcher, I think the LD could be at the start of a long rode to power. maybe: A good third place finish in 2020, overtake Lab in 2025, and in government in 2030.
The death of the Canadian Liberals was announced in 2011 when Jack Layton's NDP forced them into third place, and so (for the first time) the NDP were the Official Opposition.
What happened? The Liberals ditched their leader, found an electoral winner in 2013 and then were back in power **just two years** later having gained 150 seats.
The pendulum can swing violently.
Two years was all it took to transform the Liberals from third Place Losers to Winners.
Two years. And a new, pretty, smiling, leader.
I think it's unlikely those switchers would actually vote Con in a GE though. They're ultimate NOTA voters who are suspicious and paranoid of *the establishment*
Basically, I think the opinion poll respondents who have already moved from UKIP>Con post-referendum are likely to be more significantly more sticky than the ones who would now go Con in the absence of a UKIP option.
Now the PLP may take to extreme things many party do that make them more likely to win gerrymandering seats, undue influence the press, and using government spending in marginal constituency's to name just 3.
But they also vote for the PLP because the nation is, well run, and rich.
I suspect, but can not prove, it is as much the latter as the former.
https://twitter.com/newdawn1997/status/844847391480037377
"If it had been honestly explained last summer that leaving the EU would mean not just saying goodbye to all the political stuff but also the sight of trucks backing up from Dover to London, and thousands of exporters finding it impossible to continue trading with the EU at all, a hefty majority would have voted to Remain."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/25/dangerous-brexit-ultras-pushing-theresa-may-towards-catastrophe/
Sorry I'll miss your Article 50 shindig.
I have to say while I appreciate Antifrank's latest missive, I couldn't disagree with it more.
We've been here before both in the 1980s and for much of the 2000s. Periods of dominance by one party seem to be becoming the norm but within that there are distinct phases. The Labour Party is no more irrelevant now than it was in 1983 or were the Conservatives in 2001.
The journey back to power for an Opposition is multi-faceted - a part of it is down to the failings of the Government party whether down to an extreme external event such as the financial crash or down to indiscipline such as in the early 60s and mid 90s.
By 1997 the Conservative Government had reached a point of political collapse even though the economy was going well. In 2010, by contrast, the economic reputation of the Labour Government was in tatters even though politically it still seemed cohesive.
The other aspect is the re-invention of the Opposition as a credible alternative Government - the failings of the Government will help but as 1992 showed, no matter how poor the Government may be or seem, if the Opposition cannot convince the electorate it would be any better, it doesn't matter.
Labour's previous journey back to Government began with the election of Neil Kinnock - the Conservative journey to 2010 began with the ousting of IDS in 2003. The process of re-invention and renewal doesn't end with the person who started it but it has to start. Smith and later Blair built on the modernisation begun by Kinnock and Mandelson. Howard begat Cameron whose lovebombing of the LDs in the autumn of 2005 proved so successful.
Labour needs to begin the journey and that won't happen with Corbyn. It may not obviously be with his immediate successor but as with Kinnock and Howard, that person may be able to take more resistant elements with him/her because of their own track record.
The, I suspect, post 2020 environment may be more favourable for a re-branding of Labour in Opposition and that combined with the inevitable problems, gaffes, indiscretions, blunders and just weariness with the same set of Conservative faces may enable Labour to be a potent challenger in 2025.
Clive Lewis at least comes across as affable, and charismatic. Unlike the repulsive Yvette Cooper, who has a special talent for hectoring piety, or Lisa Nandy, another so-called 'rising star', who looks and talks like the President of a sixth form student union. None of these guys can win a general election. The next Labour PM is probably not even an MP yet.
But what does it matter? We all know that the Labour membership won't crown anyone unless they have a far left agenda. So that rules out any of the centrists (not that they are any good anyway), and if an extremist like Corbyn is chosen, the public won't vote for them at a GE. You're stuck in a lake of diarrhoea without a paddle or even a boat.
The Liberals doubled their voteshare in 74 from 10 years earlier in large part by running a full slate.
Abolition of the monarchy?
The Liberals never had a full slate of candidates - the Alliance managed a full slate in 1983. In 1964, there were 365 Liberal candidates, in 1970 332 and in February 1974 517 candidates rising to 577 in October 1974.
The increase in the Liberal vote from 1970 to Feb 1974 can't be explained away on more candidates but the 1964 and Feb 1974 performances are comparable as you say but it was more candidates rather than an actual full slate.
It can be argued the Conservatives lost in 1964 because of the slippage of votes to the Liberals and won in 1970 by winning those votes (and more) back.
Interesting article, Mr. Meeks. Labour has two critical things to address. First off, its atrocious leader. Secondly, the problem of how it holds together its two core voting groups of the working class and the liberal metropolitan types. If it could resolve those problems, then it could bounce back a lot faster than people think, especially as a government not held to account becomes sloppy, complacent and makes mistake that a future competent opposition can then exploit.
Labour's problem is that it's leader, whilst a little old, is a vegetarian cyclist rather than a chain-smoking lion-tamer, so they can't rely on him to simply pop his clogs; and its wider leadership seems very in tune with the sort of people who might buy sticks from a shop but less well-attuned to white van man.
F1: my post-race analysis is up here:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/australia-post-race-analysis-2017.html
Worth noting that some excellent tips were offered by Mr. M, and Mr. Putney and myself also had some suggestions (overall, the weekend was quite profitable). Always good to see new comments, questions and suggestions, so do give it a read.
If he'd held and won a referendum on euro membership and the Tories had still been opposing it, that would have made them as irrelevant as the LDs are now.
As of today's date, I have absolutely no idea who I will vote for at the next general election. Spoiling my ballot paper is a very live possibility.
amusing from the bloke who has actually presided over the break up of the EU
The Conservative message from the likes of Hague and Portillo in 2001 was "seven days to save the pound" which was more like "seven days to save us from a pounding". The Conservatives made a net gain of one seat from 165 to 166 so many fewer than Corbyn's Labour Party (or indeed Kinnock's Labour Party).
In many seats, the Conservatives actually went backward from 1997 (incredible as that may seem). Yes, the Conservatives were utterly and completely irrelevant then and to compound their irrelevance they then chose the hapless IDS as their leader.
I agree on DRS. Brawn has singled it out as a bad thing, I believe, so it may be axed in coming years.
However, its importance or otherwise this year will be plainer to see at China. The circuit there has a massive straight, whereas Australia's DRS zones were both too small to be much use.
he's hardly in a position to criticise others.
The main obstacle to Euro membership within the Government was Gordon Brown. He wasn't the only one less than convinced by the virtue of joining the Euro but he was firmly opposed and since Blair had effectively sub-contracted the running of the economy to Brown the Chancellor's opposition kept us out.
The Conservatives had absolutely nothing to do with it.
I know it's difficult to engineer such a scenario in terms of overtaking aids, but the best season in my opinion was 2009 when only three teams (McLaren, Ferrari and Williams) had KERS. Clearly Brawn and RedBull made the right call in not using it, it made for interesting races whereby Hamilton qualified down the grid but could then fight his way through the field. What was really funny was when rival drivers complained about Hamilton's ability to do this - no one ever dared to say "well ask your team to give you KERS!"
In any case it seems the Brexit bill will cover the budget for a good few years.
ZDF heute
✔
@ZDFheute
Prognose zur #LTWSaar: CDU 40%, SPD 30%, Linke 13%, AfD 6%, Grüne 4,5%, FDP 3,5%, Piraten 1% #Saarland #zdfwahl
5:00 PM - 26 Mar 2017
Angies out
Or perhaps another way of putting it is that Brexit & Trump are the exceptions that prove the rule.
My prediction is that Brexit will not be as bad (or as good) as is claimed. It is in almost everyone in authority's interest to minimise disruption, so there will be very little.
The Labour Party will recover (probably surprisingly quickly), and the political landscape in 2022 will not look very different from 2012.
Quite pleased with how Australia went. First green result for me since 2013 at the season's first race, although it's worth noting I finished behind overall for that year, so best not to get too giddy.
I'd forgotten the season when only some teams had KERS.
Was pleased Vettel could stick so closely to Hamilton on the early laps. The German said, post-race, that the air disruption was worse but mechanical grip was better.
if the poll is correct only 4 parties will make it to the Landtag
CDU, SPD, die Linke and AfD
it depends how reliable the polls are, typically they have understated the small parties especially the AfD
In the elections last year the AfD ended up improvng on the exit polls.
I'd say the borderline party is the greens on 4.5%. If they get more the make the Parlt and then red red green becomes a real prospect. The SPD have underpreformed in this state but the CDU are struggling to find anyone to coalesce with bar the SPD.
The SPD probably have the most options
'May to offer Holyrood deal to defuse indyref call
Theresa May will attempt to defuse the stand-off between Downing Street and Holyrood by offering Scotland new temporary powers that she hopes will weaken calls for a second independence referendum
Mrs May is believed to have scheduled a meeting with First Minister Nicola Sturgeon for tomorrow (Monday) and is thought to be prepared to offer assurances on protecting the rights of EU nationals, among other measures, as the UK severs ties with the bloc.'
http://tinyurl.com/mvubxqn
I hope they mock up a nice scroll. It means nothing if it's not on a scroll.
Totally unwarranted of course but the voters were having a strop.........
I do so love our revisionist friends.
Mental health problems continue t ospread
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/783964/Afghan-national-cyclist-hammer-assault-crime-Germany-Hamburg
the CDU if this continues can only ever govern with the cooperation of their main opponents
Merkel has messed up creating a coalition with the smaller parties, the FDP in particular