politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t expect a Street Coronation in the West Midlands Mayoral
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t expect a Street Coronation in the West Midlands Mayoral election
‘The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny.’
Comments
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What a fantastic, puntastic headline I used for this thread by Pulpstar.
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Second, like Labour0
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I put a tiny sum on the latter day Pushkin earlier today.
Edited extra bit: and who is this Pushkin fellow, anyway? Why didn't Simon use a classical analogy like a normal person?0 -
Am supposed to be doing some phoning for Andy Street tomorrow so will be interesting to see the reaction, I think he and Burnham win but both races could be close0
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Except Street is not running as a Tory really. He is running as a man who can get stuff done e.g. John Lewis.
My parents live in the area and they say he has already been busy with the leaflets.0 -
Good thread, but isn't Sion Simon seemingly a rather crap candidate, notwithstanding Labour's general difficulties?0
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Well, yes, but I can't help feeling you missed a who ate all the pie charts pun somewhere in there ?TheScreamingEagles said:What a fantastic, puntastic headline I used for this thread by Pulpstar.
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Shortly there will be an election in which Pulpstar will lose £28.50.0
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As I said the other day (and was subject to some nonsense in reply about Ryton), BMW considering options to move Mini production to the EU post-Brexit.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-21/bmw-reviewing-u-k-plant-options-post-brexit-amid-trade-threats?utm_content=brexit&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid==socialflow-facebook-brexit0 -
He's definitely going to win.TheScreamingEagles said:
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As usual, the betting threads are the best threads.0
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Oh good, another chance for everyone to top up on Fillon while it gets briefly forgotten that 1) Les Republicains have no mechanisms to replace him as their candidate at this stage, and 2) that all Fillon's rivals in the election are flawed.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
He's French toast.tlg86 said:0 -
On topic, I feel the Corbyn name is going to be toxic in the West Midlands for anyone associated with Labour, is why it is no Simon bet for me.0
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I remember making a similar remark about Trump ...TheScreamingEagles said:
He's French toast.tlg86 said:
Then again, Fillon doesn't have the populist appeal - Trump is more of a rock & roll swindler...
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Was it all your own work?TheScreamingEagles said:What a fantastic, puntastic headline I used for this thread by Pulpstar.
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No. It was a brilliant suggestion by @Tissue_Price.Richard_Nabavi said:
Was it all your own work?TheScreamingEagles said:What a fantastic, puntastic headline I used for this thread by Pulpstar.
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Not going to get rich, but 20% return in 5 weeks on Burnham looks good to me. Odds should be much shorter.0
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Perhaps Fillon has a pussy-grabbing tape lined up to grab the headlines at the right moment and crowd out all the other candidates...Nigelb said:
I remember making a similar remark about Trump ...TheScreamingEagles said:
He's French toast.tlg86 said:
Then again, Fillon doesn't have the populist appeal - Trump is more of a rock & roll swindler...0 -
Thought-provoking article by David Goodhart:
"Why I left my liberal London tribe
As a divided Britain prepares for Brexit, David Goodhart reveals why he broke up with the metropolitan elite"
https://www.ft.com/content/39a0867a-0974-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b430 -
Yes. FWIW, I've been urged to help in West Midlands, but not in Manchester (either Gorton or Burnham) - we think the latter are safe, while West Midlands does need attention.partypoliticalorphan said:Not going to get rich, but 20% return in 5 weeks on Burnham looks good to me. Odds should be much shorter.
There's a risk in wishful punting in these things - some punters are fond of Galloway because he's colourful, and some here dislike Simon with remarkable venom. Don't bet what you want, bet where the odds look right!0 -
Struggling to make too much of the pie charts. It looks as if the Tories are closer in West Midlands than they are in Manchester. Add a swing of 8%+ since 2015 and it should be very close but struggling to tell without the numbers.
Gut feel is that Labour are doing exceptionally badly in the midlands and that the Tories must be in with a shout there. Manchester is at least one and probably two bridges too far.0 -
From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn0 -
That means that there is pretty close to a primary surplus but I would be a bit suspicious about how much money is not getting paid to be BoE for the gilts they bought up with QE money, almost 1/3 of all gilts. If that is not taken into account then we do indeed have a primary surplus, albeit a somewhat contrived one.chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn0 -
Is this good, bad?chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn
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Labour doing badly + Labour choosing a weak candidate * having to fight a decent, indy-ish Tory candidate = Tory win.DavidL said:Struggling to make too much of the pie charts. It looks as if the Tories are closer in West Midlands than they are in Manchester. Add a swing of 8%+ since 2015 and it should be very close but struggling to tell without the numbers.
Gut feel is that Labour are doing exceptionally badly in the midlands and that the Tories must be in with a shout there. Manchester is at least one and probably two bridges too far.0 -
Lol. Fantastic article, Pulpy!
I wish you luck on your bet but I'm not tempted at 7-4. I think the West Midlands will swing heavily to May post Brexit.0 -
I shouldn't laugh, but I did.tlg86 said:Shortly there will be an election in which Pulpstar will lose £28.50.
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Sounds about right - if either Manchester election is not safe, then its probably beyond saving by bringing in outside activists anyway.NickPalmer said:
Yes. FWIW, I've been urged to help in West Midlands, but not in Manchester (either Gorton or Burnham) - we think the latter are safe, while West Midlands does need attention.partypoliticalorphan said:Not going to get rich, but 20% return in 5 weeks on Burnham looks good to me. Odds should be much shorter.
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2017 Thread of the Year.
Next.0 -
Or at least it would be were it not behind a paywall.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by David Goodhart:
"Why I left my liberal London tribe
As a divided Britain prepares for Brexit, David Goodhart reveals why he broke up with the metropolitan elite"
https://www.ft.com/content/39a0867a-0974-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b430 -
I'm hoping for another mini-Juppe surge myself.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's French toast.tlg86 said:0 -
google "Why I left my liberal London tribe"Casino_Royale said:
Or at least it would be were it not behind a paywall.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by David Goodhart:
"Why I left my liberal London tribe
As a divided Britain prepares for Brexit, David Goodhart reveals why he broke up with the metropolitan elite"
https://www.ft.com/content/39a0867a-0974-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b430 -
The ONS figures are rapidly becoming a joke.chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn
The government has over-estimated borrowing by tens of billions over the course of the year, when comparing the initial estimate of any given month with what it is now believed to have been.
This months' revision was more than £3bn.0 -
Google the first line.Casino_Royale said:
Or at least it would be were it not behind a paywall.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by David Goodhart:
"Why I left my liberal London tribe
As a divided Britain prepares for Brexit, David Goodhart reveals why he broke up with the metropolitan elite"
https://www.ft.com/content/39a0867a-0974-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b430 -
Juppe is ineligible to stand, having failed to receive the requisite number of nominations prior to this week's deadline.Casino_Royale said:
I'm hoping for another mini-Juppe surge myself.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's French toast.tlg86 said:0 -
Isn't that pretty common? Economic growth, borrowing, it all seems not just hard to estimate, but near impossible - huge revisions feel like the norm.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The ONS figures are rapidly becoming a joke.chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn
The government has over-estimated borrowing by tens of billions over the course of the year, when comparing the initial estimate of any given month with what it is now believed to have been.
This months' revision was more than £2bn.0 -
Its a lot better than we have done since 2007. But good might just be stretching it a tad.Gallowgate said:
Is this good, bad?chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn0 -
Seems to be an indication that just about everything paid for by the state is now funded bar debt interest payments.Gallowgate said:
Is this good, bad?chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn
It also implies that the budget forecasts two weeks ago were overly pessimistic again.
From the BBC: "Annual borrowing £51.7bn in 2016-17, £16.4bn lower than forecast"
Looking at last March's deficit and the current trend, I'd guess that borrowing will be down another £3bn compared to the latest forecast and will show as closer to £49bn for the full year when reported next month.
The government deficit as a proportion of GDP is likely to be something like 2.5% or 2.6%. That's the best in fifteen years.
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It is despite Brexit. Make of that what you will ...Gallowgate said:
Is this good, bad?chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn
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Ah, cheers.DavidL said:
Google the first line.Casino_Royale said:
Or at least it would be were it not behind a paywall.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by David Goodhart:
"Why I left my liberal London tribe
As a divided Britain prepares for Brexit, David Goodhart reveals why he broke up with the metropolitan elite"
https://www.ft.com/content/39a0867a-0974-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b430 -
Good. Public borrowing has strongly outperformed expectations this year.Gallowgate said:
Is this good, bad?chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn0 -
It does feel as though the whole government statistical and economic forecasting community have been given a steer to err on the side of caution.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The ONS figures are rapidly becoming a joke.chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn
The government has over-estimated borrowing by tens of billions over the course of the year, when comparing the initial estimate of any given month with what it is now believed to have been.
This months' revision was more than £3bn.
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Ah, then it's good for Yes...RobD said:
It is despite Brexit. Make of that what you will ...Gallowgate said:
Is this good, bad?chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn 0 -
I'm spending the day canvassing for Mr Street with the Blue Tribe on Saturday. It's free "before expenses kick in" beer too. I will report back on his chances.Mortimer said:
Labour doing badly + Labour choosing a weak candidate * having to fight a decent, indy-ish Tory candidate = Tory win.DavidL said:Struggling to make too much of the pie charts. It looks as if the Tories are closer in West Midlands than they are in Manchester. Add a swing of 8%+ since 2015 and it should be very close but struggling to tell without the numbers.
Gut feel is that Labour are doing exceptionally badly in the midlands and that the Tories must be in with a shout there. Manchester is at least one and probably two bridges too far.0 -
That would require a revision down in our borrowing int he year to date, but I think 10 of the last 11 months have seen such a revision.chestnut said:
Seems to be an indication that just about everything paid for by the state is now funded bar debt interest payments.Gallowgate said:
Is this good, bad?chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn
It also implies that the budget forecasts two weeks ago were overly pessimistic again.
From the BBC: "Annual borrowing £51.7bn in 2016-17, £16.4bn lower than forecast"
Looking at last March's deficit and the current trend, I'd guess that borrowing will be down another £3bn compared to the latest forecast and will show as closer to £49bn for the full year when reported next month.
The government deficit as a proportion of GDP is likely to be something like 2.5% or 2.6%. That's the best in fifteen years.0 -
I don't believe their 1.5% +/- 0.5% growth figures to 2021/22 either.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The ONS figures are rapidly becoming a joke.chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn
The government has over-estimated borrowing by tens of billions over the course of the year, when comparing the initial estimate of any given month with what it is now believed to have been.
This months' revision was more than £3bn.
They are guessing.0 -
Well that's very good news. I assume our national debt keeps increasing until we are no longer borrowing to pay the interest?0
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They exaggerated it because they said Brexit BREXIT would increase borrowing. Another lie by Media Baron George.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The ONS figures are rapidly becoming a joke.chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn
The government has over-estimated borrowing by tens of billions over the course of the year, when comparing the initial estimate of any given month with what it is now believed to have been.
This months' revision was more than £3bn.0 -
At least 2021/2 is in the future, and predicting the future is hard.Casino_Royale said:
I don't believe their 1.5% +/- 0.5% growth figures to 2021/22 either.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The ONS figures are rapidly becoming a joke.chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn
The government has over-estimated borrowing by tens of billions over the course of the year, when comparing the initial estimate of any given month with what it is now believed to have been.
This months' revision was more than £3bn.
They are guessing.
What the ONS have systematically got wrong is the PAST.0 -
At which point we presumably start borrowing more to fund infrastructure, health and defence white elephant projects.Gallowgate said:Well that's very good news. I assume our national debt keeps increasing until we are no longer borrowing to pay the interest?
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I think Goodhart's book is likely to become the set text on Brexit and Mayism. Though his bright-lines division of the population into Somewheres (50%) and Anywheres (25%)* is obviously an oversimplification, it does seem to have a good deal of explanatory power.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by David Goodhart:
"Why I left my liberal London tribe
As a divided Britain prepares for Brexit, David Goodhart reveals why he broke up with the metropolitan elite"
https://www.ft.com/content/39a0867a-0974-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43
* with 25% exhibiting elements of both0 -
It's possible he was just wrong.Dixie said:
They exaggerated it because they said Brexit BREXIT would increase borrowing. Another lie by Media Baron George.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The ONS figures are rapidly becoming a joke.chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn
The government has over-estimated borrowing by tens of billions over the course of the year, when comparing the initial estimate of any given month with what it is now believed to have been.
This months' revision was more than £3bn.0 -
Wait until you see my Sunday thread.Scrapheap_as_was said:2017 Thread of the Year.
Next.0 -
On topic, I fear this may be a good value loser. Though I'm sure Pulpstar will be dancing a fretful mazurka if it comes in.0
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I think the March deficit will be between £1bn and £2bn. That assumes a fall of roughly £2bn-£3bn on the corresponding month last year which seems to be the pattern of recent months.TheWhiteRabbit said:
That would require a revision down in our borrowing int he year to date, but I think 10 of the last 11 months have seen such a revision.chestnut said:
Seems to be an indication that just about everything paid for by the state is now funded bar debt interest payments.Gallowgate said:
Is this good, bad?chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn
It also implies that the budget forecasts two weeks ago were overly pessimistic again.
From the BBC: "Annual borrowing £51.7bn in 2016-17, £16.4bn lower than forecast"
Looking at last March's deficit and the current trend, I'd guess that borrowing will be down another £3bn compared to the latest forecast and will show as closer to £49bn for the full year when reported next month.
The government deficit as a proportion of GDP is likely to be something like 2.5% or 2.6%. That's the best in fifteen years.0 -
Cutting the deficit by 8.5% of GDP over 7 years is good achievement, despite what Don Brind thinks.0
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as Chancellor could he be that wrong? Recessions don't happen overnight. he liedkle4 said:
It's possible he was just wrong.Dixie said:
They exaggerated it because they said Brexit BREXIT would increase borrowing. Another lie by Media Baron George.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The ONS figures are rapidly becoming a joke.chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn
The government has over-estimated borrowing by tens of billions over the course of the year, when comparing the initial estimate of any given month with what it is now believed to have been.
This months' revision was more than £3bn.0 -
Agreed.Tissue_Price said:
I think Goodhart's book is likely to become the set text on Brexit and Mayism. Though his bright-lines division of the population into Somewheres (50%) and Anywheres (25%)* is obviously an oversimplification, it does seem to have a good deal of explanatory power.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by David Goodhart:
"Why I left my liberal London tribe
As a divided Britain prepares for Brexit, David Goodhart reveals why he broke up with the metropolitan elite"
https://www.ft.com/content/39a0867a-0974-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43
* with 25% exhibiting elements of both
@Casino_Royale and other PBers keen on an Article 50 celebration. How about next Wednesday in Town?
I'll be around and either poor but happy or flush but unhappy after what promises to be the best auction of the YTD.
Any venue prefs?
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Whilst achieving the lowest unemployment rate since the 1970s, more or less continued economic growth, no collapse in house prices, and maintaining decent public services throughout.Sean_F said:Cutting the deficit by 8.5% of GDP over 7 years is good achievement, despite what Don Brind thinks.
Let's face it: the Conservatives have done a bloody good job on the economy, aided by sensible Liberal Democrats in the early years.0 -
To pop back to Gorton betting, I don't get the 2nd place odds on Betfair.
So Galloway has thrown his trilby into the ring. He's stunned Labour once, but the markets are skeptical about him doing so twice. Gorton isn't as good for him demographically, and his star doesn't shine as bright generally as it once did.
But surely a 15-20% performance is entirely plausible, probably not even the upper bounds of his probabilities. What were the LDs expected to get before today's excitement? I'd guess about the same.
We're starting from a very low base, and without any councillors. Our record there is good circa 2010, but that was a different time. And we killed it in Witney and Richmond Park, but did disappointingly in Copeland and Stoke. Sure, Gorton is a Remain seat. But it's also an opposition seat, a student seat, and a very very Labour seat.
What if the LDs do a bit disappointingly again? 15% seems plausible there without us underperforming that much, and 15% for Galloway seems plausible without him overperforming that much.
But the odds on LDs second are 1/6, and 6/1 on Galloway. I'll buy the LDs as favourite, but surely no more than 1/2. 1/3 max.
(I've laid LDs at 1/6 for a modest sum.)0 -
Yup - credit where it is due.Casino_Royale said:
Whilst achieving the lowest unemployment rate since the 1970s, more or less continued economic growth, no collapse in house prices, and maintaining decent public services throughout.Sean_F said:Cutting the deficit by 8.5% of GDP over 7 years is good achievement, despite what Don Brind thinks.
Let's face it: the Conservatives have done a bloody good job on the economy, aided by sensible Liberal Democrats in the early years.
The moaning Tory minnies on the backbenches still won't do what needs doing (cf NI rise and Tax credit changes - both entirely sensible); wheras the orange bookers seized the mantle0 -
Labour's vote held up pretty well in the West Midlands local elections last year, especially in Birmingham itself. It'll be a tough sell promoting an obscure politician over a successful businessman though.0
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Depends how good a chancellor he was.Dixie said:
as Chancellor could he be that wrong? Recessions don't happen overnight. he liedkle4 said:
It's possible he was just wrong.Dixie said:
They exaggerated it because they said Brexit BREXIT would increase borrowing. Another lie by Media Baron George.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The ONS figures are rapidly becoming a joke.chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn
The government has over-estimated borrowing by tens of billions over the course of the year, when comparing the initial estimate of any given month with what it is now believed to have been.
This months' revision was more than £3bn.0 -
Soon there will be an election where Labour's candidate will sink further into obscurity...Artist said:Labour's vote held up pretty well in the West Midlands local elections last year, especially in Birmingham itself. It'll be a tough sell promoting an obscure politician over a successful businessman though.
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The combined votes in the two areas in 2008 (Labour's worst recent election year):
Greater Manchester
Con 211,500
Lab 208,924
LibD 153,281
Oth 70,450
West Midlands
Con 241,960
Lab 184,097
LibD 104,511
Oth 93,380
Striking how well the LibDems used to do.
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Surely Pulpstar will shatter the glass paradigm if he wins this bet.Tissue_Price said:On topic, I fear this may be a good value loser. Though I'm sure Pulpstar will be dancing a fretful mazurka if it comes in.
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That David Goodhart article is superb.0
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He was upholding the fiction that Article 50 would be invoked immediately.Dixie said:
as Chancellor could he be that wrong? Recessions don't happen overnight. he liedkle4 said:
It's possible he was just wrong.Dixie said:
They exaggerated it because they said Brexit BREXIT would increase borrowing. Another lie by Media Baron George.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The ONS figures are rapidly becoming a joke.chestnut said:From today's PSNB release:
Govt Borrowing YTD £47.8bn
Gross Interest YTD £47.5bn
The government has over-estimated borrowing by tens of billions over the course of the year, when comparing the initial estimate of any given month with what it is now believed to have been.
This months' revision was more than £3bn.
Mais après May, le déluge...0 -
DG should, if he plays it right, be the next big thing in British cultural-political analysis.Casino_Royale said:That David Goodhart article is superb.
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Here's Andrew Marr on the book too: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/03/anywheres-vs-somewheres-split-made-brexit-inevitableCasino_Royale said:That David Goodhart article is superb.
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Thanks Pulps, a very tasty looking bet there, although my 6/4 with Ladbrokes just fell short of the odds you managed to secure.0
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Are we expecting any mayoral polling?0
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Publicly? Very unlikely.Pong said:Are we expecting any mayoral polling?
Privately? Already happened.0 -
Tim, pbuh, is one of his biggest haters IIRCMortimer said:
DG should, if he plays it right, be the next big thing in British cultural-political analysis.Casino_Royale said:That David Goodhart article is superb.
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I think he already is.Mortimer said:
DG should, if he plays it right, be the next big thing in British cultural-political analysis.Casino_Royale said:That David Goodhart article is superb.
I find it interesting how friends have abandoned him, walked out on him in social situations and deployed the "R" word at him, even in his own family/extended family.
I have experienced much of the same.0 -
That is a badge of honour, surely?isam said:
Tim, pbuh, is one of his biggest haters IIRCMortimer said:
DG should, if he plays it right, be the next big thing in British cultural-political analysis.Casino_Royale said:That David Goodhart article is superb.
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Can it not just be a celebration of life and shared interests and anyone who is around invited?Mortimer said:
Agreed.Tissue_Price said:
I think Goodhart's book is likely to become the set text on Brexit and Mayism. Though his bright-lines division of the population into Somewheres (50%) and Anywheres (25%)* is obviously an oversimplification, it does seem to have a good deal of explanatory power.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by David Goodhart:
"Why I left my liberal London tribe
As a divided Britain prepares for Brexit, David Goodhart reveals why he broke up with the metropolitan elite"
https://www.ft.com/content/39a0867a-0974-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43
* with 25% exhibiting elements of both
@Casino_Royale and other PBers keen on an Article 50 celebration. How about next Wednesday in Town?
I'll be around and either poor but happy or flush but unhappy after what promises to be the best auction of the YTD.
Any venue prefs?
0 -
It's just yourself, @Cyclefree et moi at the moment ☹️Mortimer said:
Agreed.Tissue_Price said:
I think Goodhart's book is likely to become the set text on Brexit and Mayism. Though his bright-lines division of the population into Somewheres (50%) and Anywheres (25%)* is obviously an oversimplification, it does seem to have a good deal of explanatory power.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by David Goodhart:
"Why I left my liberal London tribe
As a divided Britain prepares for Brexit, David Goodhart reveals why he broke up with the metropolitan elite"
https://www.ft.com/content/39a0867a-0974-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43
* with 25% exhibiting elements of both
@Casino_Royale and other PBers keen on an Article 50 celebration. How about next Wednesday in Town?
I'll be around and either poor but happy or flush but unhappy after what promises to be the best auction of the YTD.
Any venue prefs?0 -
Snap. It has really quite shocked me.Casino_Royale said:
I think he already is.Mortimer said:
DG should, if he plays it right, be the next big thing in British cultural-political analysis.Casino_Royale said:That David Goodhart article is superb.
I find it interesting how friends have abandoned him, walked out on him in social situations and deployed the "R" word at him, even in his own family/extended family.
I have experienced much of the same.
I mean, as a card carrying Tory I've always been looked upon with suspicion by my largely Anywhere mates, but the numerous attempts to close down debates on immigration when I mention any negative effects is both hilarious and somewhat worrying at the same time.0 -
Of course!Cyclefree said:
Can it not just be a celebration of life and shared interests and anyone who is around invited?Mortimer said:
Agreed.Tissue_Price said:
I think Goodhart's book is likely to become the set text on Brexit and Mayism. Though his bright-lines division of the population into Somewheres (50%) and Anywheres (25%)* is obviously an oversimplification, it does seem to have a good deal of explanatory power.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by David Goodhart:
"Why I left my liberal London tribe
As a divided Britain prepares for Brexit, David Goodhart reveals why he broke up with the metropolitan elite"
https://www.ft.com/content/39a0867a-0974-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43
* with 25% exhibiting elements of both
@Casino_Royale and other PBers keen on an Article 50 celebration. How about next Wednesday in Town?
I'll be around and either poor but happy or flush but unhappy after what promises to be the best auction of the YTD.
Any venue prefs?
It isn't meant to be in any way exclusive - it was just mooted a month or so back to coincide with the triggering.0 -
I'm game.Mortimer said:
Agreed.Tissue_Price said:
I think Goodhart's book is likely to become the set text on Brexit and Mayism. Though his bright-lines division of the population into Somewheres (50%) and Anywheres (25%)* is obviously an oversimplification, it does seem to have a good deal of explanatory power.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by David Goodhart:
"Why I left my liberal London tribe
As a divided Britain prepares for Brexit, David Goodhart reveals why he broke up with the metropolitan elite"
https://www.ft.com/content/39a0867a-0974-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43
* with 25% exhibiting elements of both
@Casino_Royale and other PBers keen on an Article 50 celebration. How about next Wednesday in Town?
I'll be around and either poor but happy or flush but unhappy after what promises to be the best auction of the YTD.
Any venue prefs?0 -
That David Goodhart article is just Common People in prose, with a side order of martyrdom.0
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Completely O/T and apologies in advance but on the Irish question:
Sometimes you have to do deals with bad people and McGuinness – eventually – played his part in trying to sort out the mess he created. But let's not imagine virtues that did not exist. Whatever he did in the peace process did not involve saying sorry for what the IRA did. Nor did it involve justice for the dead and wounded and the widows and widowers and orphans and all those deprived of people they loved. They should not be forgotten, today of all days.
Making this simple point somehow seems controversial. As if it is somehow not done to look past the cheery smile. All that killing and pain. And for what? A NI still in the UK and what has been achieved could have been achieved decades ago if the men of peace had been as celebrated and fawned over and supported as much as the men of violence.
We live in a meritocracy where people with no experience or knowledge whatsoever can be appointed to senior jobs and where any notion that man is a moral animal and can make a choice between good and evil and be held accountable for his/her choices is seen as something quaintly old-fashioned if not downright perverse.
There. I have got that off my chest.
Sorry.
Off to have my dinner now.
0 -
Yup. Dissertation writing and finals revision....SeanT said:Hello PB. I wrote another 3240 words today. In two hours.
Tomorrow I will finish the first draft. A 93,000 word novel in two months and one day.
No idea if it is any good, could be anything from dreck to worldbeater, but I sure did it quick.
Here's the thing. During the writing of this novel, when the writing has been most intense/prolific, I have been sleeping 10 or more hours a day, sometimes 12. In Thailand this came in the form of 2-3 hour siestas, then another 8 hours normal sleep, here in London I just conk out for 11 hours. Go to bed at 1am, wake up at noon. Write. Repeat.
How odd is that? Has anyone else ever experienced something like this? Intense mental activity, requiring huge amounts of kip?0 -
'Common people' is probably the most succinct and accessible description of why the country is divided/whyBrexit happened.AlastairMeeks said:That David Goodhart article is just Common People in prose, with a side order of martyrdom.
https://youtu.be/yuTMWgOduFM
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The Butler and Kavanagh book on the 1997 GE offers an explanation for that 5.5-point swing against the tide. In Bradford West, Labour stood a non-Muslim candidate (called Singh), the Tories a Muslim.Danny565 said:
That seat had a history for very odd results (e.g. a swing from Labour to Tories in 1997).tlg86 said:
Didn't stop him winning Bradford West.david_herdson said:
More an amusing reference point than joke but yes, intentional - not least because it exemplifies one of the difficulties he'll have: being taken seriously by enough people.rottenborough said:
Galloway and cat? An intentional joke?david_herdson said:
Labour's position in Gorton is exaggerated by the unusual result in 2015. Had there been a by-election there in 2003/4, it'd have been a very likely Lib Dem gain.AlastairMeeks said:If this seat isn't a boring Labour hold, Labour are in Extinction Level Event territory. That it's even worth a thread header as a speculative punt for anyone else is astonishing.
Labour should be huge value here. Yet I can't bring myself to bet on them.
But it's a difficult election to read now with three candidates in the running. Lab should start favourite but Galloway's intervention throws the cat among them and you can see a number of ways that Labour could lose.
There was also a 6-point swing to the Tories in Bethnal Green and Bow (another former Galloway haunt, of course) for a similar reason. Oona King's Conservative opponent was a Choudhury.0 -
You'd do well to read it again, and again, until you understand it and appreciate it.AlastairMeeks said:That David Goodhart article is just Common People in prose, with a side order of martyrdom.
He is bang on the money.0 -
@Cyclefree all that is true. But a Northern Ireland without late period Martin McGuinness would be a much worse, much sadder, much bloodier and much more backward-looking place.
The Prime Minister's words were spot on.0 -
Isn't there some connection to a certain Greek ex-Finance minister too?isam said:
'Common people' is probably the most succinct and accessible description of why the country is divided/whyBrexit happened.AlastairMeeks said:That David Goodhart article is just Common People in prose, with a side order of martyrdom.
https://youtu.be/yuTMWgOduFM0 -
Town as in London? Or some provincial place?Casino_Royale said:
I'm game.Mortimer said:
Agreed.Tissue_Price said:
I think Goodhart's book is likely to become the set text on Brexit and Mayism. Though his bright-lines division of the population into Somewheres (50%) and Anywheres (25%)* is obviously an oversimplification, it does seem to have a good deal of explanatory power.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by David Goodhart:
"Why I left my liberal London tribe
As a divided Britain prepares for Brexit, David Goodhart reveals why he broke up with the metropolitan elite"
https://www.ft.com/content/39a0867a-0974-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43
* with 25% exhibiting elements of both
@Casino_Royale and other PBers keen on an Article 50 celebration. How about next Wednesday in Town?
I'll be around and either poor but happy or flush but unhappy after what promises to be the best auction of the YTD.
Any venue prefs?0 -
I've read it twice. It's not half as profound as you or he thinks it is.Casino_Royale said:
You'd do well to read it again, and again, until you understand it and appreciate it.AlastairMeeks said:That David Goodhart article is just Common People in prose, with a side order of martyrdom.
He is bang on the money.0 -
Oh London dahling, no riff raff ☺Dixie said:
Town as in London? Or some provincial place?Casino_Royale said:
I'm game.Mortimer said:
Agreed.Tissue_Price said:
I think Goodhart's book is likely to become the set text on Brexit and Mayism. Though his bright-lines division of the population into Somewheres (50%) and Anywheres (25%)* is obviously an oversimplification, it does seem to have a good deal of explanatory power.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by David Goodhart:
"Why I left my liberal London tribe
As a divided Britain prepares for Brexit, David Goodhart reveals why he broke up with the metropolitan elite"
https://www.ft.com/content/39a0867a-0974-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43
* with 25% exhibiting elements of both
@Casino_Royale and other PBers keen on an Article 50 celebration. How about next Wednesday in Town?
I'll be around and either poor but happy or flush but unhappy after what promises to be the best auction of the YTD.
Any venue prefs?0 -
I was thinking London, but am also at a loss as to a venue. My old haunts in Bloomsbury have largely become a bit Shoreditchy now.Dixie said:
Town as in London? Or some provincial place?Casino_Royale said:
I'm game.Mortimer said:
Agreed.Tissue_Price said:
I think Goodhart's book is likely to become the set text on Brexit and Mayism. Though his bright-lines division of the population into Somewheres (50%) and Anywheres (25%)* is obviously an oversimplification, it does seem to have a good deal of explanatory power.AndyJS said:Thought-provoking article by David Goodhart:
"Why I left my liberal London tribe
As a divided Britain prepares for Brexit, David Goodhart reveals why he broke up with the metropolitan elite"
https://www.ft.com/content/39a0867a-0974-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43
* with 25% exhibiting elements of both
@Casino_Royale and other PBers keen on an Article 50 celebration. How about next Wednesday in Town?
I'll be around and either poor but happy or flush but unhappy after what promises to be the best auction of the YTD.
Any venue prefs?0 -
Mhairi Black has tweeted that it's unfair Scotland has fewer MPs than London. Perhaps she doesn't know that London has about 3.5 million more people.0
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An Old Etonian who's run the gamut of self-righteousness throughout his life has merely discovered a new intellectual fad to lord over his rootless peers.Casino_Royale said:
I think he already is.Mortimer said:
DG should, if he plays it right, be the next big thing in British cultural-political analysis.Casino_Royale said:That David Goodhart article is superb.
I find it interesting how friends have abandoned him, walked out on him in social situations and deployed the "R" word at him, even in his own family/extended family.
I have experienced much of the same.0 -
In my experience everyone thinks they're Jarvis Cocker in that song, no matter how implausible.isam said:
'Common people' is probably the most succinct and accessible description of why the country is divided/whyBrexit happened.AlastairMeeks said:That David Goodhart article is just Common People in prose, with a side order of martyrdom.
https://youtu.be/yuTMWgOduFM0
