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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t expect a Street Coronation in the West Midlands Mayoral

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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279

    fitalass said:

    MikeL said:

    Not sure if already posted but Labour Party membership will soon be 71,000 below the peak under Corbyn.

    July 2016 - 554,000
    December 2016 - 528,000

    But 40,000 are now in arrears - number up to date with payments is only 483,000.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/21/labour-membership-expected-to-fall-below-half-a-million

    Do we know what the current SNP membership is after their post 2014 Indy Ref spike?
    According to the latest available estimates from political parties’ head offices, press releases and media estimates
    • The Labour Party has around 528,000 members, as of March 2017.
    • The Conservative Party had 149,800 members as of December 2013, the latest available estimate published by CCHQ.
    • The Scottish National Party has around 120,000 members, as of July 2016.
    • The Liberal Democrat Party has 82,000 members, as of February 2017.
    • The Green Party (England and Wales) has 55,500 members, as of July 2016.
    • UKIP has around 39,000 members, as of July 2016.
    • The Plaid Cymru has 8,273 members, as of July 2016.


    http://tinyurl.com/krb2vnt
    Messaged you via vanilla.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    TRADING BLOWS Theresa May is ‘ready to slap tariffs’ on goods from the EU as she plans new law to take back control of trade policy

    New deal will send a message to European leaders that the PM will walk away from talks without a new UK-EU trade deal

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3145643/theresa-may-tariffs-on-goods-from-eu/

    It's amazing how so many Brexiteers managed to see (rightly) how insulting the Obama "back of the queue" comments were to Brits, yet don't see by the very same logic how insulting this kind of sabre-rattling is to other EU countries.
    Um, probably because Brexiteers ARE Brits?
    But we're about to go into talks with EU countries. The logic seems to be that these threats will incentivise the EU to give us a good deal, by showing them how supposedly bad their situation will be if they don't do as we want - but that was exactly the kind of logic behind Obama and the like's "interventions" during the referendum. The likelihood is that the Europeans will react to what they perceive as British threats, in the exact same way as Brits reacted to perceived Obama/EU threats during the referendum - i.e. with a big "f**k you" anger at the idea of attempts at blackmail.
    We weren't going into negotiations with America, we were in a middle of a domestic election.
    The apt comparison for what Obama did would be if May went to Paris and declared that the future of the Entente Cordiale depended Upon Fillon getting elected.
    Quite right, Mr Thompson. It just goes to show how inept the Conservative leaders of the Remain campaign were.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059

    TRADING BLOWS Theresa May is ‘ready to slap tariffs’ on goods from the EU as she plans new law to take back control of trade policy

    New deal will send a message to European leaders that the PM will walk away from talks without a new UK-EU trade deal

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3145643/theresa-may-tariffs-on-goods-from-eu/

    Just from a technical perspective, it's important to remember that - assuming we join the WTO - we will not be allowed to be discriminatory in our tariffs. That means that the tariffs the EU faces can be no different to those we have we any other country with which we do not have a trade deal.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    TRADING BLOWS Theresa May is ‘ready to slap tariffs’ on goods from the EU as she plans new law to take back control of trade policy

    New deal will send a message to European leaders that the PM will walk away from talks without a new UK-EU trade deal

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3145643/theresa-may-tariffs-on-goods-from-eu/

    It's amazing how so many Brexiteers managed to see (rightly) how insulting the Obama "back of the queue" comments were to Brits, yet don't see by the very same logic how insulting this kind of sabre-rattling is to other EU countries.
    Um, probably because Brexiteers ARE Brits?
    But we're about to go into talks with EU countries. The logic seems to be that these threats will incentivise the EU to give us a good deal, by showing them how supposedly bad their situation will be if they don't do as we want - but that was exactly the kind of logic behind Obama and the like's "interventions" during the referendum. The likelihood is that the Europeans will react to what they perceive as British threats, in the exact same way as Brits reacted to perceived Obama/EU threats during the referendum - i.e. with a big "f**k you" anger at the idea of attempts at blackmail.
    Negotiations is not about simply being the hardest guy in the room. It's also about selling to someone *why* they want a deal with you. Antagonising your negotiating partner is rarely the best strategy.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    edited March 2017

    ydoethur said:

    some here dislike Simon with remarkable venom.

    What is remarkable about disliking Simon? He's a rude, lazy, arrogant and extraordinarily stupid sycophant who has no discernible principles, no original ideas, no capacity for independent thought or critical evaluation, and who has successively failed as a journalist, politician, campaigner and most recently all the lot together. He is utterly unfit to run a village post office, never mind the West Midlands.

    The suggestion that he should make the campaign about him rather than Jez to improve his chances is the equivalent of someone advising Khrushchev to play down his links to Stalin and instead big up his friendship with Yezhov to secure the post of General Secretary.

    What is more remarkable in many ways is that there still people out there odd enough to actually rate this gurning fool. Frankly, it doesn't say much for the intellect of the average Labour member in the West Midlands that they preferred him to Bedser.

    He may still win of course. But he is testing the theory of 'put up a donkey with a red rosette and they'll vote for it' far beyond the point of safety.
    Yes, that's the sort of peculiar tirade that I had in mind. I know Simon slightly as a likeable backbench MP. interesting to chat to. There are lots of MPs, mayoral candidates, police commissioners and so on who are much less intelligent. No doubt he's made mistakes and said the odd silly thing, haven't we all. But either you loathe half of Parliament with irrational fury, or you've just got a funny obsession about him.
    I'm afraid, Dr Palmer, that says an awful lot about you, and not in a good way. There was nothing peculiar or irrational about what I said. Simon really does come across as a basically loathsome and basically useless person. As for 'obsession', all I have done is write three posts pointing this out. If you think otherwise because you had the odd pleasant chat with him on the Terrace - well, let's just say I think you need to open your eyes more.

    Simon looks to sensible people something like Mark Thatcher but with less brainpower. But I suppose you did support the egregious Jezziah.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,020
    MTimT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Then when the moment came, in the Dynasty Grande hotel in Bangkok, in late January, I typed the first sentence: "The dead birds are neatly arranged in a row."

    That's a jolly good first sentence.

    Let me know if you need any help with the ending.
    I certainly will, because I am writing the last sentence, tomorrow. A brief 1000 word, final chapter epilogue is required, and shall be written, when I wake up. I will call upon your inestimable talents! If required.
    "And that's how the dead birds came to be neatly arranged in a row. The End"
    Based on the Twitter theme of a few weeks back that any novel can be improved by adding "and then the murders began" to the end of the first sentence may i suggest:

    And then the murders began. The end.
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